FAQ

SOURCE: OAG

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

2D GEO-MIA JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0] MAR 0.3>0[0]

Why?
**4B MSL-PNS JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]

7H ANC-DUT JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[4] MAR 0>0.8[1.9]
7H ANC-ENA JAN 0>6[0] FEB 0>6[8] MAR 0>3[8]
7H ANC-FAI JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[2.0] MAR 0>0.4[2.0]
7H ANC-HOM JAN 0>1.7[0] FEB 0>1.7[4] MAR 0>0.7[4]
7H ANC-SNP JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[0.5]
7H ANC-UNK JAN 0>0.4[0] FEB 0>0.4[1.0]
7H ANC-VDZ JAN 0>0.8[0] FEB 0>0.9[1.8] MAR 0>0.4[1.6]

9X BWI-DUJ FEB 0>1.4[2] MAR 0>1.5[1.9]
9X BWI-MGW FEB 0>1.4[2] MAR 0>1.5[1.9]
9X DFW-ELD MAR 0>1.3[1.6]
9X ELD-MEM MAR 0>0.7[0.8]
9X HNL-LNY MAR 0>1.7[0]
9X HNL-MKK MAR 0>11[1.4]
9X HNM-OGG MAR 0>2[0.5]
9X HRO-MEM MAR 0>0.7[0.9]
9X KOA-OGG MAR 0>6[0]
9X LNY-OGG MAR 0>3[0]
9X LUP-MKK MAR 0>2[0.9]
9X MKK-OGG MAR 0>9[0.5]
9X MUE-OGG MAR 0>2[0]
9X PBI-TPA MAR 0>1.8[2]

AA ABE-ORD FEB 1.0>0.7[1.1]
AA DEN-LAX MAR 3>1.9[4]
AA IAD-LAX MAR 1.5>0.9[0.9]
AA LAX-SLC JAN 0.8>0.5[3] MAR 3>2[4]

AC ATL-YYZ JAN 3>0[3]
AC AUS-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC BNA-YYZ JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC BOS-YHZ JAN 1.3>0[1.3]
AC BOS-YOW JAN 1.3>0[1.3]
AC BOS-YUL JAN 3>0.9[3]
AC BOS-YYZ JAN 6>1.0[6]
AC BWI-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC BWI-YYZ JAN 2>0[2]
AC CLE-YYZ JAN 3>0[3]
AC CLT-YYZ JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC CMH-YYZ JAN 3>0[3]
AC CVG-YYZ JAN 1.7>0[1.7]
AC DCA-YOW JAN 1.2>0[1.2]
AC DCA-YUL JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC DCA-YYZ JAN 3>1.0[3]
AC DEN-YUL JAN 0.8>0.4[0.8]
AC DEN-YVR JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC DEN-YYZ JAN 1.4>0.4[1.4]
AC DFW-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC DFW-YVR JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC DFW-YYZ JAN 2>0[2]
AC DTW-YYZ JAN 2>0[2]
AC EWR-YOW JAN 1.7>0[1.7]
AC EWR-YUL JAN 3>2[3]
AC EWR-YVR JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC EWR-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC EWR-YYZ JAN 5>3[5]
AC FLL-YOW JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC FLL-YUL JAN 4>2[4]
AC FLL-YYZ JAN 2>0.9[2]
AC HNL-YVR JAN 1.5>0.2[1.5]
AC HNL-YYZ JAN 0.2>0[0.2]
AC IAD-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC IAD-YYZ JAN 1.6>1.0[1.6]
AC IAH-YUL JAN 1.5>0.4[1.5]
AC IAH-YYC JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC IAH-YYZ JAN 2>1.1[2]
AC KOA-YVR JAN 0.5>0[0.5]
AC LAS-YUL JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC LAS-YVR JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC LAS-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC LAS-YYZ JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC LAX-YUL JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC LAX-YVR JAN 4>1.5[4]
AC LAX-YYC JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC LAX-YYZ JAN 3>0.4[3]
AC LGA-YUL JAN 6>1.0[6]
AC LGA-YYZ JAN 9>3[9]
AC MCI-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC MCO-YHZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC MCO-YOW JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC MCO-YUL JAN 1.5>0.6[1.5]
AC MCO-YYZ JAN 3>0.9[3]
AC MEM-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC MIA-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC MIA-YYZ JAN 2>0[2]
AC MKE-YYZ JAN 1.2>0[1.2]
AC MSP-YYZ JAN 2>0[2]
AC MSY-YYZ JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC OGG-YVR JAN 1.6>0.2[1.6]
AC OGG-YYC JAN 0.6>0.3[0.6]
AC ORD-YUL JAN 3>1.0[3]
AC ORD-YVR JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC ORD-YYZ JAN 6>2[6]
AC PBI-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC PBI-YYZ JAN 1.5>0.3[1.5]
AC PDX-YVR JAN 3>0.9[3]
AC PDX-YYC JAN 0.6>0[0.6]
AC PHL-YUL JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC PHL-YYZ JAN 3>0[3]
AC PHX-YUL JAN 0.4>0[0.4]
AC PHX-YVR JAN 0.9>0.7[1.0]
AC PHX-YYZ JAN 0.8>0[0.9]
AC PIT-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC PIT-YYZ JAN 1.8>0[1.8]
AC PSP-YVR JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC PSP-YYZ JAN 0.5>0[0.5]
AC RDU-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC RDU-YYZ JAN 2>0[2]
AC RSW-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC RSW-YYZ JAN 1.7>0.9[1.6]
AC SAN-YVR JAN 2>0[2]
AC SAN-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC SEA-YVR JAN 4>1.0[4]
AC SEA-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC SFO-YEG JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC SFO-YUL JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC SFO-YVR JAN 4>1.5[4]
AC SFO-YYC JAN 1.4>0[1.4]
AC SFO-YYZ JAN 3>0[3]
AC SJC-YVR JAN 2>0[2]
AC SMF-YVR JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC SRQ-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
AC STL-YYZ JAN 2>0[2]
AC TPA-YHZ JAN 0.4>0[0.4]
AC TPA-YOW JAN 0.3>0[0.3]
AC TPA-YUL JAN 0.7>0.2[0.7]
AC TPA-YYZ JAN 1.6>1.0[1.6]

AD FLL-VCP FEB 1.0>0.5[1.9] MAR 1.0>0.6[1.4] APR 1.0>0.7[1.1]
AD MCO-VCP APR 1.0>0.6[1.1] MAY 1.0>0.7[1.0]

AI BLR-SFO JAN 0>0.2[0] FEB 0>0.3[0] MAR 0>0.3[0]

AM DEN-MEX FEB 0.9>1.1[1.7]
AM FAT-GDL FEB 0.4>0.7[1.2]
AM GDL-SMF JAN 0.7>0.9[0.7] FEB 0.4>0.8[1.3]
AM IAH-MEX JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3]
AM JFK-MEX JAN 0.3>1.8[0.4] FEB 3>2.0[3]
AM JFK-MTY FEB 1.0>0[1.1]
AM LAS-MEX JAN 1.0>0.6[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.4[1.6]
AM LAS-MTY FEB 0.3>0[0.5]
AM LAX-MEX JAN 0.4>1.7[0.3] FEB 4>2[1.5]
AM LAX-MTY FEB 1.0>0[1.1]
AM MCO-MEX JAN 1.4>1.1[1.4] FEB 1.3>0.9[1.7]
AM MEX-ORD JAN 1.4>1.8[1.4] FEB 1.0>1.6[1.7]
AM MEX-SAT JAN 1.3>2[1.3] FEB 1.0>2[1.2]
AM MEX-SEA JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.6[1.3]
AM MEX-SFO JAN 2>1.2[2] FEB 2>0.9[3]

AR EZE-JFK JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.3>0[0.5] MAR 0.4>0.1[0.4]

B6 GEO-JFK JAN 0.6>0.2[0.6] FEB 0.6>0.4[0]

BA BOS-LHR JAN 1.7>1.0[1.7] FEB 2>1.0[4]
BA BWI-LHR JAN 0.4>0[0.4] FEB 0.6>0[1.1]
BA IAH-LHR JAN 0.8>0.5[0.8] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.8]
BA LAX-LHR JAN 1.4>1.0[1.4] FEB 1.6>1.0[3]
BA LHR-MIA JAN 2>1.3[2] FEB 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-ORD JAN 1.7>1.0[1.7] FEB 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SJC JAN 0.4>0[0.4] FEB 0.6>0[1.0]

Schedule extension
CM BOS-PTY AUG 0.2>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]
CM DEN-PTY AUG 0.1>0.5[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
CM FLL-PTY AUG 0.2>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]
CM IAD-PTY AUG 0.6>2[0.8] SEP 0>3[0.9]
CM JFK-PTY AUG 0.7>3[0.8] SEP 0>3[0.9]
CM LAS-PTY JAN 0.1>0.3[0.8] AUG 0.2>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]
CM LAX-PTY AUG 0.7>3[0.5] SEP 0>3[0.6]
CM MCO-PTY AUG 1.1>5[0.6] SEP 0>5[1.8]
CM MIA-PTY AUG 1.4>6[0.8] SEP 0>6[1.9]
CM MSY-PTY AUG 0.1>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0]
CM ORD-PTY AUG 0.5>1.9[0.3] SEP 0>2[0.4]
CM PTY-SFO AUG 0.5>1.9[0.2] SEP 0>2[0.2]
CM PTY-TPA AUG 0.2>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0]

Deeper JAN cut
DL ABE-ATL JAN 1.6>1.1[1.9]
DL ABQ-LAX JAN 2>1.4[3]
DL AEX-ATL JAN 2>1.8[3]
They just added this recently, rolled back further and further
DL ANC-SLC JAN 0.6>0.1[1.0]
DL ATL-BDA FEB 1.0>0.7[0.8]
DL ATL-BOI JAN 0.9>0.6[1.0]
DL ATL-BWI JAN 6>5[7]
DL ATL-CHO JAN 2>1.6[1.9]
DL ATL-CHS JAN 8>7[8]
DL ATL-CSG JAN 3>2[3]
DL ATL-CVG JAN 6>5[7]
DL ATL-DHN JAN 3>2[2]
DL ATL-EVV JAN 2>1.6[3]
DL ATL-EWR JAN 7>6[8]
DL ATL-FLL JAN 12>11[12]
DL pulled a lot of GCM flying
DL ATL-GCM JAN 0.8>0[0.8]
DL ATL-GPT JAN 4>3[5]
DL ATL-GRB JAN 1.6>1.1[1.9]
DL ATL-HOU JAN 5>4[5]
DL ATL-JAC JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL ATL-JAX JAN 10>9[10]
DL ATL-LAS JAN 8>7[8]
DL ATL-LFT JAN 4>3[4]
DL ATL-LIR FEB 2>1.6[2]
DL ATL-MBJ FEB 4>3[4]
DL ATL-MCO JAN 14>12[14]
DL ATL-MDT JAN 2>1.9[3]
DL ATL-MEM JAN 6>5[7]
DL ATL-MIA JAN 11>10[12]
DL ATL-MYR JAN 3>2[4]
DL ATL-PBI JAN 9>8[9]
DL ATL-PVR FEB 1.9>1.4[0.9]
DL ATL-RSW JAN 10>8[10]
DL ATL-SAN JAN 4>3[4]
DL ATL-SBN JAN 2>1.7[3]
DL ATL-SHV JAN 3>2[4]
DL ATL-SRQ JAN 7>6[7]
DL ATL-TLH JAN 4>3[5]
DL ATL-TPA JAN 13>11[13]
DL ATL-YUL JAN 0.8>0[0.8]
DL AUA-JFK JAN 0.9>0.7[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.1]
DL AUS-DTW JAN 1.6>1.0[1.9]
DL AUS-LAX JAN 2>1.8[3]
DL AUS-MSP JAN 1.8>1.0[2]
DL AZO-MSP JAN 0.9>0.1[1.0]
DL BDA-JFK FEB 0.7>0.5[1.1]
DL BOS-FLL JAN 1.8>3[1.8] MAR 0.9>3[1.2]
DL BOS-LGA JAN 2>1.3[3]
DL BOS-MBJ JAN 0.4>0.2[0.4] FEB 0.4>0.1[0.2]
DL BOS-MCO JAN 1.9>3[1.9]
No idea why they pulled it in the first place
*DL BOS-RSW JAN 0>1.7[0] MAR 1.0>1.9[1.4]
DL BOS-STT FEB 0.6>0.1[0]
DL BTV-DTW JAN 3>1.5[3]
DL BUR-SLC JAN 4>3[4]
DL BWI-DTW JAN 3>2[4]
DL BZN-LAX MAR 0.8>0.6[0.2]
DL CLE-MSP JAN 4>3[4]
DL CUN-CVG JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.2]
DL CUN-RDU JAN 0.9>0.7[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.6[0.2]
The rare increase from pre-COVID
*DL CUN-SLC JAN 1.0>1.9[1.0] FEB 1.0>2[1.1] MAR 1.0>2.0[0.9]
DL CVG-FLL JAN 1.6>1.0[1.9]
DL CVG-MCO JAN 1.7>2[2.0]
DL CVG-MSP JAN 4>3[4]
DL DCA-JFK JAN 2>1.6[2]
DL DCA-LGA JAN 3>1.8[3]
DL DEN-JFK JAN 1.7>1.0[2]
DL DEN-LGA JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL DFW-LGA JAN 3>1.9[3]
DL DSM-MSP JAN 4>3[4]
DL DSM-SLC JAN 0.9>0[1.0]
DL DTW-EWR JAN 4>3[5]
DL DTW-JFK JAN 3>1.7[3]
DL DTW-PDX JAN 0.6>0.1[1.0]
DL DTW-PUJ JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.1]
DL DTW-RIC JAN 1.4>0.8[1.7]
DL EUG-SEA JAN 3>1.8[3]
DL FLL-LAX JAN 0.8>0.1[1.0]
DL FLL-LGA JAN 4>3[5]
*DL GCM-JFK JAN 0.8>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 0.9>0[0] APR 0.2>0[0]
DL GDL-LAX JAN 1.0>0.3[1.0]
DL GRR-MSP JAN 4>3[4]
DL HNL-LAX JAN 4>3[4]
DL HNL-MSP JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL IAD-MSP JAN 3>2[3]
DL IMT-MSP JAN 1.0>0.8[1.0]
DL IND-MSP JAN 4>2[4]
DL JAC-MSP JAN 1.0>0.6[1.0]
DL JFK-LAS JAN 1.3>1.0[1.7]
DL JFK-LOS JAN 0.6>0.4[0.6]
DL JFK-MBJ JAN 1.8>1.0[1.8] FEB 2>1.0[1.3]
DL JFK-MEX JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[2]
DL JFK-MIA JAN 4>3[4]
I can't believe this route has been operating till now
*DL JFK-MXP JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.7>0[1.1]
DL JFK-PLS JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[0.9]
DL JFK-RDU JAN 2>1.7[3]
DL JFK-SJD JAN 0.2>0.4[0.2] FEB 0.1>0.4[0]
DL KOA-SEA JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL LAS-LAX JAN 5>4[5]
DL LAX-MCI JAN 0.5>0[0.9]
DL LAX-MEX JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[4]
DL LAX-PVR JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[1.2]
DL LAX-SAT JAN 0.9>0[1.0]
DL LAX-TPA JAN 1.5>1.1[2.0]
DL LGA-MCI JAN 0.6>0.1[1.0]
DL LGB-SLC JAN 4>3[4]
DL LIH-SEA JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL MCI-MSP JAN 4>3[4]
DL MCI-SLC JAN 3>1.6[3]
DL MCO-SEA JAN 1.6>1.1[2.0]
DL MFR-SEA JAN 3>1.9[3]
DL MQT-MSP JAN 1.0>0.8[1.0]
DL MSP-ORD JAN 5>4[6]
DL MSP-PHL JAN 4>3[4]
DL MSP-PIT JAN 3>1.7[3]
DL MSP-PSP JAN 1.0>1.6[1.0] MAR 1.0>1.9[1.1]
DL MSP-RDU JAN 3>1.8[3]
DL MSP-RSW MAR 5>6[5]
DL MSP-SAT JAN 1.8>1.0[2.0]
DL MSP-STL JAN 4>3[4]
DL OGG-SEA JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL OMA-SLC JAN 3>1.6[3]
DL ORD-SEA JAN 1.6>1.0[1.9]
DL PHL-SLC JAN 0.6>0.9[1.0]
DL PSC-SEA JAN 3>1.7[3]
DL RDM-SEA JAN 3>1.9[3]
DL SEA-SFO JAN 3>2[4]
DL SLC-STL JAN 3>1.7[3]
DL SLC-SUN JAN 4>3[4]
**DL SLC-WYS MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.9[1.1] JUL 0>2[1.0] AUG 0>2[1.8] SEP 0>2[1.7]

EY AUH-IAD JAN 0.5>0.2[0.5]

G4 AVL-FLL JAN 1.2>0.7[1.2]
**G4 AVL-LAS MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
G4 AZA-GFK FEB 0.5>0.2[0.3] MAR 0.5>0.2[0.4] APR 0.4>0.2[0.6]
Phoenix to Houston effectively, rare for G4
**G4 AZA-HOU FEB 0>0.2[0] MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
G4 AZA-RFD MAR 0.9>0.6[0.4]
G4 AZA-STC MAR 0.6>0.2[0.5] APR 0.4>0.1[0.7]
G4 BLI-LAS JAN 0.7>0.5[0.7]
**G4 BOI-SNA APR 0>0.3[0]
G4 CHS-PGD JAN 0.3>0[0.3]
G4 CID-PGD MAR 0.8>0.6[0.6]
**G4 EWR-GRR MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
**G4 FAR-PIE FEB 0>0.2[0] MAR 0>0.3[0]
G4 FAT-LAS JAN 0.5>0.4[0.5]
G4 FLL-PBG JAN 0.4>0.0[0.4]
**G4 FNT-LAS MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
G4 FNT-PGD MAR 1.0>0.8[0.9]
Unless Disney opens I don't see these working, and it probably won't soon
**G4 GEG-LAS MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
**G4 GEG-SNA MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
**G4 GJT-SNA MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.2[0]
G4 GRR-PGD FEB 0.9>0.7[0.8]
**G4 GRR-VPS MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
G4 IAG-PGD JAN 0.4>0[0.4] FEB 0.6>0.3[0.6]
G4 LAS-RDM JAN 0.2>0[0.2]
G4 LAS-SCK JAN 0.5>0.4[0.5]
**G4 LAS-SNA APR 0>0.2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
**G4 MFR-SNA APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
**G4 MSO-SNA APR 0>0.2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
G4 PGD-RFD MAR 0.8>0.6[0.6]
G4 PGD-STC MAR 0.3>0.1[0.3]
G4 PIE-RIC JAN 0.3>0.0[0.3]
**G4 PVU-SNA MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.3[0]
**G4 RNO-SNA MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
G4 SFB-TVC JAN 0.3>0[0.3]

HA BOS-HNL JAN 0.7>0.3[0.7] FEB 0.7>0.3[0.7]
HA CTS-HNL JAN 0.4>0[0.4]
HA FUK-HNL JAN 0.5>0[0.5]
HA HND-HNL JAN 2>0.4[2]
HA HND-KOA JAN 0.4>0[0.4]
HA HNL-ICN JAN 0.6>0.1[0.6]
HA HNL-ITO JAN 12>7[12] FEB 13>7[14] MAR 13>11[12]
HA HNL-JFK JAN 0.9>0.5[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.4[1.1] MAR 1.0>0.8[0.9]
HA HNL-KIX JAN 0.9>0.4[0.9]
HA HNL-KOA JAN 14>7[14] FEB 16>8[18] MAR 16>13[15]
HA HNL-LAS JAN 2>1.9[2] FEB 3>2[3]
HA HNL-LAX JAN 3>2[3] FEB 3>2[3]
HA HNL-LGB JAN 1.0>0.8[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.1]
HA HNL-LIH JAN 16>7[16] FEB 18>7[19] MAR 17>13[17]
HA HNL-NRT JAN 0.9>0.6[0.9]
HA HNL-OGG JAN 23>11[23] FEB 26>11[28] MAR 24>18[25]
HA HNL-PHX JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.1]
HA HNL-SEA JAN 1.4>1.0[1.4] FEB 1.4>1.0[1.6]
HA HNL-SFO JAN 1.9>1.1[1.9] FEB 2>1.0[2] MAR 2>1.6[1.9]
HA ITO-OGG JAN 2.0>0[2.0] FEB 2>0[2] MAR 2>1.2[1.9]
HA KOA-LAX JAN 0.8>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 1.0>0.6[0.9]
HA KOA-LIH JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 1.0>0.6[0.9]
HA KOA-OGG JAN 3>1.0[3] FEB 3>1.0[3] MAR 3>2[3]
HA LAS-OGG JAN 0.5>0[0.5] FEB 0.6>0[0.6] MAR 0.6>0.3[0.5]
HA LAX-LIH JAN 0.9>0.6[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.1]
HA LIH-OAK JAN 0.9>0.4[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.4[1.1] MAR 1.0>0.8[0.9]
HA LIH-OGG JAN 4>0.8[4] FEB 4>1.0[3] MAR 4>3[3]
HA OGG-SAN JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.1]
HA OGG-SFO JAN 0.9>0.7[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.1]
HA OGG-SJC JAN 0.9>0.6[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.6[1.1]

J5 HNH-JNU FEB 1.7>1.4[3] MAR 1.7>2[3] APR 1.7>3[4] MAY 1.7>3[5] JUN 1.7>3[6] JUL 1.7>3[1.7] AUG 1.7>3[3] SEP 1.7>3[1.5]
J5 HNS-JNU MAR 0.9>1.6[3] APR 0.9>1.7[3] MAY 0.8>1.7[3] JUN 0.9>1.7[8] JUL 0.9>1.7[1.3] AUG 0.8>1.7[4] SEP 0.9>1.7[4]
J5 JNU-KAE FEB 0.9>0[1.0] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.9>0[1.0] MAY 0.8>0[1.0] JUN 0.9>0[2] JUL 0.9>0[0.8] AUG 0.8>0[1.0] SEP 0.9>0[1.0]
J5 JNU-KLW FEB 0.9>0[0]
J5 JNU-SIT FEB 1.7>0[2]
J5 KAE-SIT FEB 0.9>0[1.0] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.9>0[1.0] MAY 0.8>0[1.0] JUN 0.9>0[1.0] JUL 0.9>0[0] AUG 0.8>0[1.0] SEP 0.9>0[1.0]
J5 KLW-SIT FEB 0.9>0[1.0] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.9>0[1.0] MAY 0.8>0[1.0] JUN 0.9>0[2] JUL 0.9>0[0.4] AUG 0.8>0[1.0] SEP 0.9>0[1.0]

JQ HNL-MEL JAN 0.5>0[0.5]
JQ HNL-SYD JAN 0.5>0[0.5]

KQ JFK-NBO APR 0.4>0.7[0.7] MAY 0.5>0.7[0.7] JUN 0.4>0.7[0.3] JUL 0.4>0.7[0.6] AUG 0.5>0.7[0] SEP 0.4>0.7[0]

LA BOS-GRU JAN 0.5>0.1[0.4] FEB 0.4>0[0.8]
LA GRU-JFK JAN 1.0>0.5[1.0]
LA GRU-MCO JAN 1.0>0[1.0]
LA GRU-MIA JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0]
LA JFK-SCL JAN 0.4>0.1[0.4] FEB 0.4>0[1.1]
LA LAX-SCL JAN 0.4>0.1[0.4] FEB 0.4>0[0.8]
LA LIM-MIA JAN 1.3>1.0[1.3]

*MF LAX-XMN APR 0>0.3[0.0] JUL 0>0.3[0.2] AUG 0>0.3[0.2] SEP 0>0.3[0.4]

OZ ICN-JFK JAN 2.0>1.0[2.0]
OZ ICN-LAX JAN 2>1.3[2]
OZ ICN-SEA JAN 0.9>0.5[0.7]
OZ ICN-SFO JAN 1.0>0.6[1.0]

What is this?
QG TRT-UPG JAN 0>0.5[0] FEB 0>0.4[0] MAR 0>0.4[0] APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0]

SN BRU-JFK FEB 0.3>0[1.0] MAR 0.6>0.1[0.8]

SY BNA-MSP JAN 0.4>0.0[0.4]
SY CUN-MSP JAN 1.4>1.1[1.4]
SY MBJ-MSP JAN 0.7>0.2[0.7]
SY MSP-PSP JAN 0.8>0.5[0.8]
SY MSP-PUJ JAN 0.5>0.3[0.5]
SY MSP-PVR JAN 1.1>0.7[1.1]
SY MSP-SAN JAN 0.6>0.4[0.6]

TK ATL-IST JAN 0.7>0.5[0.7] FEB 0.7>0.4[0.8]
TK BOS-IST JAN 1.0>0.5[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.4[1.1]
**TK EWR-IST JAN 1.0>0[1.0] FEB 1.0>0[0] MAR 1.0>0.1[0]
TK IAD-IST JAN 1.4>0.7[1.4] FEB 1.4>0.7[1.1]
TK IAH-IST JAN 0.9>0.6[0.9] FEB 0.9>0.6[0.9]
TK IST-JFK JAN 2>1.6[2] FEB 2>1.4[2]
TK IST-MIA JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.6[1.1]
TK IST-SFO JAN 1.0>0.7[1.0] FEB 1.0>0.6[1.1]

TN CDG-LAX JAN 0.2>0[0.2]
TN LAX-PPT JAN 0.5>0.3[0.5]

TP IAD-LIS APR 0.7>1.0[0.7] MAY 0.7>1.0[0.0]
TP LIS-ORD JUL 1.0>0.7[0.8] AUG 1.0>0.7[0] SEP 1.0>0.7[0]

Looks like UA is backing down from its new sun flying
UA BOS-RSW JAN 0.7>0.5[0.7]
UA BQN-EWR JAN 0.9>0[0.9]
UA CMH-RSW JAN 0.6>0.4[0.6]
UA IAH-POS JAN 0.9>0[0.9] FEB 1.0>0.6[1.1]
UA IND-RSW JAN 0.6>0.4[0.6]
UA LGA-RSW JAN 0.7>0.4[0.7]
UA MKE-RSW JAN 0.6>0.4[0.6]
UA MKE-TPA JAN 0.6>0.3[0.6]
UA PIT-RSW JAN 0.6>0.3[0.6]

WS ATL-YYC JAN 0.9>0[0.8]
WS AZA-YYC JAN 0.2>0[0.2]
WS BNA-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.8>0[0.9]
WS BOS-YYZ JAN 1.6>0[1.6] FEB 1.9>0[2]
WS DEN-YYC JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.4>0[0.4]
WS IAH-YYC JAN 1.4>0[1.4] FEB 1.7>0[1.8]
WS JFK-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.8>0[0.9]
WS LGA-YYZ JAN 6>0[6] FEB 7>6[7]
WS LIH-YVR JAN 0.8>0[0.8]
WS MCO-YYC MAR 0.9>0.7[0.9]
*WS MIA-YYZ JAN 0.8>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.8>0[1.0]
*WS PDX-YYC JAN 0.9>0[0.9] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 1.0>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WS SAN-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
WS SNA-YVR JAN 0.9>0[0.9]
WS TPA-YYZ JAN 0.8>0[0.9]

XL GYE-JFK JAN 1.0>0[1.0]

enilria wrote:

**G4 AZA-HOU FEB 0>0.2[0] MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

I thought this was VERY interesting. G4 has not even flown routes like SFB-IAD or PGD-MDW. It will be interesting to see if this strategy gets expanded. It's also super-competitive with WN/AA/UA. NK used to be in it (Phoenix-Houston) too I think, but probably suspended. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 was in it too.

It looks like HA and DL still have a fair amount of Hawaii interstate capacity in for January. Actual bookings, or hope to be snatched away with later adjustments?

enilria wrote:

enilria wrote:

**G4 AZA-HOU FEB 0>0.2[0] MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

I thought this was VERY interesting. G4 has not even flown routes like SFB-IAD or PGD-MDW. It will be interesting to see if this strategy gets expanded. It's also super-competitive with WN/AA/UA. NK used to be in it (Phoenix-Houston) too I think, but probably suspended. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 was in it too.

G4 ran AZA-SAN before. Also, currently runs AZA-OAK, AZA-LAS. Certainly not a new strategy, but maybe it becomes more common go forward. The challenge is that with only one or two weekly flights, it is hard for them to gain traction. AA’s exit from OAK certainly helps on the AZA-OAK route and the AZA-LAS route is flown with more frequency.

Looks like the ruling against the DL/WS JV is now reality..nothing but cancelations Canada-US except LGA and PDX.

WS ATL-YYC JAN 0.9>0[0.8]
WS AZA-YYC JAN 0.2>0[0.2]
WS BNA-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.8>0[0.9]
WS BOS-YYZ JAN 1.6>0[1.6] FEB 1.9>0[2]
WS DEN-YYC JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.4>0[0.4]
WS IAH-YYC JAN 1.4>0[1.4] FEB 1.7>0[1.8]
WS JFK-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.8>0[0.9]
WS LGA-YYZ JAN 6>0[6] FEB 7>6[7]
WS LIH-YVR JAN 0.8>0[0.8]
WS MCO-YYC MAR 0.9>0.7[0.9]
*WS MIA-YYZ JAN 0.8>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.8>0[1.0]
*WS PDX-YYC JAN 0.9>0[0.9] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 1.0>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WS SAN-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
WS SNA-YVR JAN 0.9>0[0.9]
WS TPA-YYZ JAN 0.8>0[0.9]

Why?
**4B MSL-PNS JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]

This is showing in Boutiqueair.com, not a typo. Starts on Dec 15. I don't see any kind of press release, not even in Boutique's website but somebody must be backing it up.

MrPeanut wrote:

enilria wrote:

enilria wrote:

**G4 AZA-HOU FEB 0>0.2[0] MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

I thought this was VERY interesting. G4 has not even flown routes like SFB-IAD or PGD-MDW. It will be interesting to see if this strategy gets expanded. It's also super-competitive with WN/AA/UA. NK used to be in it (Phoenix-Houston) too I think, but probably suspended. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 was in it too.

G4 ran AZA-SAN before. Also, currently runs AZA-OAK, AZA-LAS. Certainly not a new strategy, but maybe it becomes more common go forward. The challenge is that with only one or two weekly flights, it is hard for them to gain traction. AA’s exit from OAK certainly helps on the AZA-OAK route and the AZA-LAS route is flown with more frequency.

AZA-LAS is definitely a leisure route, AZA-SAN is a traditional leisure route, AZA-OAK is arguably similar to AZA-HOU, but there are VERY few of those. I could also argue that OAK/SFO is more of a leisure market than HOU.

Chuska wrote:

Why?
**4B MSL-PNS JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]

This is showing in Boutiqueair.com, not a typo. Starts on Dec 15. I don't see any kind of press release, not even in Boutique's website but somebody must be backing it up.

What's the traffic base? PNS is military and beach. MSL is not much of anything. HSV is near and is military/space. Is it a military route? What leisure passenger would fly this route?

4B is doing some cutesey things with the downtime of their EAS flying. I assume you could fly from BNA-VPS with stop in MSL. I need to check their website or a booking engine.

enilria wrote:

MrPeanut wrote:

enilria wrote:

I thought this was VERY interesting. G4 has not even flown routes like SFB-IAD or PGD-MDW. It will be interesting to see if this strategy gets expanded. It's also super-competitive with WN/AA/UA. NK used to be in it (Phoenix-Houston) too I think, but probably suspended. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 was in it too.

G4 ran AZA-SAN before. Also, currently runs AZA-OAK, AZA-LAS. Certainly not a new strategy, but maybe it becomes more common go forward. The challenge is that with only one or two weekly flights, it is hard for them to gain traction. AA’s exit from OAK certainly helps on the AZA-OAK route and the AZA-LAS route is flown with more frequency.

AZA-LAS is definitely a leisure route, AZA-SAN is a traditional leisure route, AZA-OAK is arguably similar to AZA-HOU, but there are VERY few of those. I could also argue that OAK/SFO is more of a leisure market than HOU.

OAK/SFO is definitely more leisure than HOU. I see AZA-HOU being this, Houstonians seeking leisure in Phoenix (Scottsdale, Flagstaff), and Phoenixians(?) taking cruises out of Galveston.

MrPeanut wrote:

enilria wrote:

enilria wrote:

**G4 AZA-HOU FEB 0>0.2[0] MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

I thought this was VERY interesting. G4 has not even flown routes like SFB-IAD or PGD-MDW. It will be interesting to see if this strategy gets expanded. It's also super-competitive with WN/AA/UA. NK used to be in it (Phoenix-Houston) too I think, but probably suspended. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 was in it too.

G4 ran AZA-SAN before. Also, currently runs AZA-OAK, AZA-LAS. Certainly not a new strategy, but maybe it becomes more common go forward. The challenge is that with only one or two weekly flights, it is hard for them to gain traction. AA’s exit from OAK certainly helps on the AZA-OAK route and the AZA-LAS route is flown with more frequency.

G4 never ran AZA-SAN

Chuska wrote:

Why?
**4B MSL-PNS JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]

This is showing in Boutiqueair.com, not a typo. Starts on Dec 15. I don't see any kind of press release, not even in Boutique's website but somebody must be backing it up.

Switching one of the EAS destinations from BNA to PNS.

hiflyeras wrote:

Looks like the ruling against the DL/WS JV is now reality..nothing but cancelations Canada-US except LGA and PDX.

WS ATL-YYC JAN 0.9>0[0.8]
WS AZA-YYC JAN 0.2>0[0.2]
WS BNA-YYZ JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.8>0[0.9]
WS BOS-YYZ JAN 1.6>0[1.6] FEB 1.9>0[2]
WS DEN-YYC JAN 0.3>0[0.3] FEB 0.4>0[0.4]
WS IAH-YYC JAN 1.4>0[1.4] FEB 1.7>0[1.8]
WS JFK-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7] FEB 0.8>0[0.9]
WS LGA-YYZ JAN 6>0[6] FEB 7>6[7]
WS LIH-YVR JAN 0.8>0[0.8]
WS MCO-YYC MAR 0.9>0.7[0.9]
*WS MIA-YYZ JAN 0.8>0[0.8] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 0.9>0[0.9] APR 0.8>0[1.0]
*WS PDX-YYC JAN 0.9>0[0.9] FEB 1.0>0[1.1] MAR 1.0>0[0.9] APR 1.0>0.2[1.0]
WS SAN-YYC JAN 0.7>0[0.7]
WS SNA-YVR JAN 0.9>0[0.9]
WS TPA-YYZ JAN 0.8>0[0.9]

I wouldn't say WS cutting January like this has anything to do with WS/DL not going through. AC has massive cuts on their transborder schedule for January as well. I think it's a sign that there's no real sign that the border is going to re-open anytime soon.

enilria wrote:

Chuska wrote:

Why?
**4B MSL-PNS JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]

This is showing in Boutiqueair.com, not a typo. Starts on Dec 15. I don't see any kind of press release, not even in Boutique's website but somebody must be backing it up.

What's the traffic base? PNS is military and beach. MSL is not much of anything. HSV is near and is military/space. Is it a military route? What leisure passenger would fly this route?

I'm not sure about demand but Boutique is doing EAS with 24x weekly MSL-ATL/BNA but they're going to use a 12x weekly PNS to replace BNA: https://beta.regulations.gov/document/D ... -7856-0233

They're receiving a little under $3 million in subsidies each year for operating the 24 frequencies.

Ishrion wrote:

I'm not sure about demand but Boutique is doing EAS with 24x weekly MSL-ATL/BNA but they're going to use a 12x weekly PNS to replace BNA: https://beta.regulations.gov/document/D ... -7856-0233

They're receiving a little under $3 million in subsidies each year for operating the 24 frequencies.

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Well MSL has a university (N Alabama) nearby I bet that's something.

As for SLC-WYS on OO/DL, seasonal EAS route, so what's the big deal about that?

hiflyeras wrote:

Looks like the ruling against the DL/WS JV is now reality..nothing but cancelations Canada-US except LGA and PDX.

Not sure if I'd read an impact from the withdrawal of the JV into the cuts. I think a far simpler explanation would be the continuing travel restrictions on entering Canada. LGA probably stays in the schedule for now just in case they have to fly it to maintain the slots. I doubt the extremely limited non-discretionary transborder air travel makes it worthwhile for them to fly anything to the U.S. FWIW there's YYC-MCO in the schedule for March -- probably in the hope that vaccinated individuals might be allowed to cross the border on vacation.

AC has cut everything but some sun routes (Florida, Hawaii, Arizona), UA hubs for connectivity, and maybe a half-dozen essential routes (like BOS/LGA markets).

enilria wrote:

What is this?
QG TRT-UPG JAN 0>0.5[0] FEB 0>0.4[0] MAR 0>0.4[0] APR 0>0.4[0] MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0]

A data entry error. Probably should be QG TTR-UPG.

enilria wrote:

Looks like UA is backing down from its new sun flying

I think anything to or from the Northeast will be a disaster until state-imposed hygiene theater stops including backdoor interstate travel restrictions. But ya know, B6 is going to fly BOS-DCA 6x daily on Jan 19-21 (and 4-5x daily for the rest of the week centered on Jan 20) because THAT travel will be perfectly safe.

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

I'm not sure about demand but Boutique is doing EAS with 24x weekly MSL-ATL/BNA but they're going to use a 12x weekly PNS to replace BNA: https://beta.regulations.gov/document/D ... -7856-0233

They're receiving a little under $3 million in subsidies each year for operating the 24 frequencies.

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Putting aside the question of EAS abuse - and I tend to agree with you, just setting it to the side for the sake of discussion - MSL-PNS likely has more O&D traffic that might look at flying than does MSL-BNA. MSL-BNA is an easy, two-hour drive. MSL-PNS/Destin is a pain.

enilria wrote:

**G4 AVL-LAS MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

G4 is continuing to increase its number of longer routes. This flight will be around 4 hours in length from AVL-LAS. However, it will still be doable as a "turn" from LAS for crews, but could be pushing the 9 hour limit (I'm assuming they will time it to take advantage of that) with certain delays. FNT-LAS is another one that's long like this, and I am sure there are more. Question is, will we eventually see transcon or near transcon routes that require a second crew and/or layover?

enilria wrote:

**G4 GJT-SNA MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.2[0]
**G4 MFR-SNA APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
**G4 MSO-SNA APR 0>0.2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

Obviously these will be geared mostly toward Disney travelers, but its interesting that places like GJT will get SNA service before a few cities that likely have higher demand, but also would not really work under G4's model (:cogh: Fresno :cough:).

ScottB wrote:

hiflyeras wrote:

Looks like the ruling against the DL/WS JV is now reality..nothing but cancelations Canada-US except LGA and PDX.

Not sure if I'd read an impact from the withdrawal of the JV into the cuts. I think a far simpler explanation would be the continuing travel restrictions on entering Canada. LGA probably stays in the schedule for now just in case they have to fly it to maintain the slots. I doubt the extremely limited non-discretionary transborder air travel makes it worthwhile for them to fly anything to the U.S. FWIW there's YYC-MCO in the schedule for March -- probably in the hope that vaccinated individuals might be allowed to cross the border on vacation.

YYC-MCO is scheduled to resume December 19th, once weekly.

BA744PHX wrote:

MrPeanut wrote:

enilria wrote:

I thought this was VERY interesting. G4 has not even flown routes like SFB-IAD or PGD-MDW. It will be interesting to see if this strategy gets expanded. It's also super-competitive with WN/AA/UA. NK used to be in it (Phoenix-Houston) too I think, but probably suspended. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 was in it too.

G4 ran AZA-SAN before. Also, currently runs AZA-OAK, AZA-LAS. Certainly not a new strategy, but maybe it becomes more common go forward. The challenge is that with only one or two weekly flights, it is hard for them to gain traction. AA’s exit from OAK certainly helps on the AZA-OAK route and the AZA-LAS route is flown with more frequency.

G4 never ran AZA-SAN

You are correct, that was Elite that announced SAN from AZA. It is interesting to note though that G4 also had other larger city pairs such as CLE, SDF, MEM, MKE, IND in the past from AZA.

TWA772LR wrote:

OAK/SFO is definitely more leisure than HOU. I see AZA-HOU being this, Houstonians seeking leisure in Phoenix (Scottsdale, Flagstaff), and Phoenixians(?) taking cruises out of Galveston.

Phoenicians although that's a misuse of that demonym.

Cruises probably aren't going to restart from Galveston in February. Maybe there are golfers who'd be going to Scottsdale but the weather in AZ in February isn't significantly better than Houston.

Chuska wrote:

Why?
**4B MSL-PNS JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]

This is showing in Boutiqueair.com, not a typo. Starts on Dec 15. I don't see any kind of press release, not even in Boutique's website but somebody must be backing it up.

Are these replacing the ATL trips for the winter?

FlyingElvii wrote:

Chuska wrote:

Why?
**4B MSL-PNS JAN 0>2[0] FEB 0>2[0] MAR 0>2[0] APR 0>2[0] MAY 0>2[0]

This is showing in Boutiqueair.com, not a typo. Starts on Dec 15. I don't see any kind of press release, not even in Boutique's website but somebody must be backing it up.

Are these replacing the ATL trips for the winter?

In reply #12, its replacing BNA, not ATL. And since it goes thru May, looks like a long term deal, not just for the winter.

G4’s SNA-PVU flight will be fine regardless if Disneyland is open or not. There are a ton of family ties between Utah County and Orange County and people from Utah County love to simply travel to that area of California for vacation, Disney or Disney to make this work. Also BYU and UVU students are plentiful up in the Provo-Orem area as well that come from around the Orange County area (similar to the Phoenix-Mesa area). I’m willing to bet that this particular route will be as successful as the AZA-PVU route and I wouldn’t be surprised see it go daily within a years time.

Thank you for all of the work on this.

Nothing at all from AS? Seems unusual.

cschleic wrote:

Thank you for all of the work on this.

Nothing at all from AS? Seems unusual.

It was a pretty quiet week. Four changes from American, one from JetBlue, nine from United, none from Alaska.

HNLSLCPDX wrote:

G4’s SNA-PVU flight will be fine regardless if Disneyland is open or not. There are a ton of family ties between Utah County and Orange County and people from Utah County love to simply travel to that area of California for vacation, Disney or Disney to make this work. Also BYU and UVU students are plentiful up in the Provo-Orem area as well that come from around the Orange County area (similar to the Phoenix-Mesa area). I’m willing to bet that this particular route will be as successful as the AZA-PVU route and I wouldn’t be surprised see it go daily within a years time.

Could G4 pick up on the Utah skiing crowd too?

C

Cubsrule wrote:

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

I'm not sure about demand but Boutique is doing EAS with 24x weekly MSL-ATL/BNA but they're going to use a 12x weekly PNS to replace BNA: https://beta.regulations.gov/document/D ... -7856-0233

They're receiving a little under $3 million in subsidies each year for operating the 24 frequencies.

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Putting aside the question of EAS abuse - and I tend to agree with you, just setting it to the side for the sake of discussion - MSL-PNS likely has more O&D traffic that might look at flying than does MSL-BNA. MSL-BNA is an easy, two-hour drive. MSL-PNS/Destin is a pain.

No doubt the O&D is probably more than BNA, but that's not really saying much. I would argue the connection to BNA was more important because BNA is a "hub" for WN. Granted, there's no interline between Boutique and WN, but people could easily book their own WN tickets to make a connection happen.

Granted, I tend to believe that MSL is a market that shouldn't be EAS to start with. EAS has a place (mostly very remote places like Alaska, eastern Montana), but MSL (which is only 60 miles from HSV) seems wasteful.

There is an absolute connection between the Provo area and Orange County. Tons of Mormons in all those coastal towns in the OC with money. G4 should do well on this route.

I think this was to prevent Breeze from offering PVU-So Cal as easy. Neeleman knows the connection between the OC area and utah which is why he went in on Long Beach-SLC so early and it has been a hit. Long Beach is pretty convenient and the second best option to SNA. Delta has had some great pricing power on SNA-SLC non-stops this is the worst for them. They lose a little of their non-stop pricing power which is usually quite a bit more then to LGB.

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Putting aside the question of EAS abuse - and I tend to agree with you, just setting it to the side for the sake of discussion - MSL-PNS likely has more O&D traffic that might look at flying than does MSL-BNA. MSL-BNA is an easy, two-hour drive. MSL-PNS/Destin is a pain.

No doubt the O&D is probably more than BNA, but that's not really saying much. I would argue the connection to BNA was more important because BNA is a "hub" for WN. Granted, there's no interline between Boutique and WN, but people could easily book their own WN tickets to make a connection happen.

Granted, I tend to believe that MSL is a market that shouldn't be EAS to start with. EAS has a place (mostly very remote places like Alaska, eastern Montana), but MSL (which is only 60 miles from HSV) seems wasteful.

I wonder if this has to do with the terminal construction at BNA, which currently (and temporarily) requires reclearing security to connect from Boutique to WN or AA. I probably would opt to drive to BNA if I had to clear security at BNA no matter, especially when there's no fare savings associated with flying from MSL.

ScottB wrote:

hiflyeras wrote:

Looks like the ruling against the DL/WS JV is now reality..nothing but cancelations Canada-US except LGA and PDX.

Not sure if I'd read an impact from the withdrawal of the JV into the cuts. I think a far simpler explanation would be the continuing travel restrictions on entering Canada. LGA probably stays in the schedule for now just in case they have to fly it to maintain the slots. I doubt the extremely limited non-discretionary transborder air travel makes it worthwhile for them to fly anything to the U.S. FWIW there's YYC-MCO in the schedule for March -- probably in the hope that vaccinated individuals might be allowed to cross the border on vacation.

AC has cut everything but some sun routes (Florida, Hawaii, Arizona), UA hubs for connectivity, and maybe a half-dozen essential routes (like BOS/LGA markets).

Keep in mind that Canadians are free to enter the United States by air right now - they are just subject to a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return to Canada.

Given that land borders are shut, the Canadians that normally drive down to Florida/Arizona for the winter will have to go by air this year (if they choose to go, since they'll either have to rent a car or go without a car if they come down). Still, if you're coming down for a three month period and the car obstacle isn't an issue, I'm sure those folks will still fly to the sun destinations and either deal with the quarantine upon return or hope that stuff gets better and they're not subjected to it (kicking the can down the road).

deltairlines wrote:

Keep in mind that Canadians are free to enter the United States by air right now - they are just subject to a mandatory 14 day quarantine upon return to Canada.

Given that land borders are shut, the Canadians that normally drive down to Florida/Arizona for the winter will have to go by air this year (if they choose to go, since they'll either have to rent a car or go without a car if they come down). Still, if you're coming down for a three month period and the car obstacle isn't an issue, I'm sure those folks will still fly to the sun destinations and either deal with the quarantine upon return or hope that stuff gets better and they're not subjected to it (kicking the can down the road).

Yes, I suppose that if one has the flexibility to work from home (or is retired) then a two-week quarantine at home during Canadian winter is not a horrible price to pay for escaping that winter for a few weeks or months.

DL ATL-SBN JAN 2>1.7[3] SBN-ATL 3 flights per day except Tue, Wed, and Sat where it drops to 2 flights per day. Even with Covid DL cannot get it together as AA is stealing their traffic at SBN and offers a First Class section on their jets to DFW and CLT.

Cubsrule wrote:

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

I'm not sure about demand but Boutique is doing EAS with 24x weekly MSL-ATL/BNA but they're going to use a 12x weekly PNS to replace BNA: https://beta.regulations.gov/document/D ... -7856-0233

They're receiving a little under $3 million in subsidies each year for operating the 24 frequencies.

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Putting aside the question of EAS abuse - and I tend to agree with you, just setting it to the side for the sake of discussion - MSL-PNS likely has more O&D traffic that might look at flying than does MSL-BNA. MSL-BNA is an easy, two-hour drive. MSL-PNS/Destin is a pain.

I agree...
A beach routing could help the numbers greatly. Even six on Friday and Sunday is likely to be an improvement on what they are probably seeing to BNA right now. Third tier markets are just getting crushed without biz traffic, while the GA ramps are busy.

Given that land borders are shut, the Canadians that normally drive down to Florida/Arizona for the winter will have to go by air this year (if they choose to go, since they'll either have to rent a car or go without a car if they come down).

They are having the cars shipped across the border (legally) and then fly to BUF, DTW or wherever (by private plane or helicopter), pick then up and go!

For retired folks, the 14 day quarantine on return is not a big deal.

Note that UA didn't touch BOS/LGA-FLL/MCO - the "core" of their P2P Sun flying that has seemingly being doing OK.

They cut TPA and RSW, which haven't been doing as well.

For the UG (Citilink Indonesia) flight, I wondered how that TRT reconciled to be an airport in the US as I initially see it being the IATA code for anything. Further research revealed that TRT was the IATA code for the now closed Tremonton Municipal Airport in Tremonton, Utah (I've never heard of a small town completely losing its airport - but apparently at some point the leaders of Tremonton decided they didn't need an airport anymore as I can't even see a sign of it on Google Earth). Tremonton is 75 miles from SLC and 39 miles from OGD.

FlyingElvii wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Putting aside the question of EAS abuse - and I tend to agree with you, just setting it to the side for the sake of discussion - MSL-PNS likely has more O&D traffic that might look at flying than does MSL-BNA. MSL-BNA is an easy, two-hour drive. MSL-PNS/Destin is a pain.

I agree...
A beach routing could help the numbers greatly. Even six on Friday and Sunday is likely to be an improvement on what they are probably seeing to BNA right now. Third tier markets are just getting crushed without biz traffic, while the GA ramps are busy.

To make this even more exciting, MSL had 4 daily to ATL until three months ago (Aug 23) when it was switched to 2-ATL, 2-BNA. My thoughts are having frequent service to a major hub (like ATL) is the best way to go.

freakyrat wrote:

DL ATL-SBN JAN 2>1.7[3] SBN-ATL 3 flights per day except Tue, Wed, and Sat where it drops to 2 flights per day. Even with Covid DL cannot get it together as AA is stealing their traffic at SBN and offers a First Class section on their jets to DFW and CLT.

I would agree with you. I fly DL exclusively out of SBN and AA has maintained their two flights per day to both DFW and CLT. I've flown each week for the past three and when I pass the AA gates their flights are packed. DL still hasn't brought back the flights to MSP and are still flying reduced numbers to both DTW and ATL. The fact that DL still flies the CRJ-200 doesn't help against the CRJ-700/900 being flown by AA. Even the short hop to DTW is miserable on the CRJ-200.

Cubsrule wrote:

I wonder if this has to do with the terminal construction at BNA, which currently (and temporarily) requires reclearing security to connect from Boutique to WN or AA. I probably would opt to drive to BNA if I had to clear security at BNA no matter, especially when there's no fare savings associated with flying from MSL.

Possibly, but I tend to think this is an EAS carrier that is trying to salvage it's EAS money by flying a leisure route instead of connecting business people to a "hub". With business traffic way down, everyone is really surviving almost solely on leisure traffic. There's no leisure traffic on MSL-BNA, since as you aptly point out, most leisure travelers would just drive to BNA (or HSV/BHM) for lower fares. So, this forces Boutique to look for leisure passengers without having a route that is too long (TPA / MCO would have more leisure demand than PNS, but questionable if the distance is economical). Though good luck finding many EAS passengers on MSL-PNS in January. Not really beach weather in PNS then.

I was kind of surprised that they didn't do MSL to VPS/DSI which really hits the sweet spot for leisure. However, not sure VPS/DSI are eligible because I think you have to connect to what EAS considers a "hub" airport. PNS is classified by arcane DOT language as a "small hub" whereas VPS/DSI I don't believe are.

Cubsrule wrote:

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Ishrion wrote:

I'm not sure about demand but Boutique is doing EAS with 24x weekly MSL-ATL/BNA but they're going to use a 12x weekly PNS to replace BNA: https://beta.regulations.gov/document/D ... -7856-0233

They're receiving a little under $3 million in subsidies each year for operating the 24 frequencies.

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Putting aside the question of EAS abuse - and I tend to agree with you, just setting it to the side for the sake of discussion - MSL-PNS likely has more O&D traffic that might look at flying than does MSL-BNA. MSL-BNA is an easy, two-hour drive. MSL-PNS/Destin is a pain.

But one of the criteria for SCASD is supposed to be linking into a hub in order to allow passengers access to the national air travel system. PNS isn't a dead end, but it is close. BNA is a de facto WN hub which means reasonably prices connects. PNS makes no sense and I wouldn't have approved the swap if it was my call. It will be empty.

flyfresno wrote:

enilria wrote:

**G4 AVL-LAS MAR 0>0.3[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

G4 is continuing to increase its number of longer routes. This flight will be around 4 hours in length from AVL-LAS. However, it will still be doable as a "turn" from LAS for crews, but could be pushing the 9 hour limit (I'm assuming they will time it to take advantage of that) with certain delays. FNT-LAS is another one that's long like this, and I am sure there are more. Question is, will we eventually see transcon or near transcon routes that require a second crew and/or layover?

enilria wrote:

**G4 GJT-SNA MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.2[0]
**G4 MFR-SNA APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]
**G4 MSO-SNA APR 0>0.2[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

Obviously these will be geared mostly toward Disney travelers, but its interesting that places like GJT will get SNA service before a few cities that likely have higher demand, but also would not really work under G4's model (:cogh: Fresno :cough:).

It does not look like Disney is opening any time soon. They just laid off pretty much everybody at Disneyland.

cschleic wrote:

Thank you for all of the work on this.

Nothing at all from AS? Seems unusual.

Thanks, no all quiet.

jmscsc wrote:

freakyrat wrote:

DL ATL-SBN JAN 2>1.7[3] SBN-ATL 3 flights per day except Tue, Wed, and Sat where it drops to 2 flights per day. Even with Covid DL cannot get it together as AA is stealing their traffic at SBN and offers a First Class section on their jets to DFW and CLT.

I would agree with you. I fly DL exclusively out of SBN and AA has maintained their two flights per day to both DFW and CLT. I've flown each week for the past three and when I pass the AA gates their flights are packed. DL still hasn't brought back the flights to MSP and are still flying reduced numbers to both DTW and ATL. The fact that DL still flies the CRJ-200 doesn't help against the CRJ-700/900 being flown by AA. Even the short hop to DTW is miserable on the CRJ-200.

I've checked some of the AA loads at SBN and although they are reduced some days they are really full like there is no pandemic. This busy weekend they had to stick an extra CRJ700 R/T flight to Chicago (Wed, Fri, Sat, Sun, and Mon) just to accomodate the connections. DL has tried a few times to bring back the MSP flights which now are indicated to come back in March. The plan Pre-Covid was to have all Endeavor CRJ900 flying to Atlanta and that will probably pan out once Covid is over and traffic picks up. May even see a morning mainline flight to Atlanta thrown in the mix B717 or A220. AA also has plans post Covid to add SBN-PHL and possibly SBN-MIA.

My DL MSP-DCA flight over MLK weekend was downgraded from mainline to a Skywest E175.

enilria wrote:

enilria wrote:

**G4 AZA-HOU FEB 0>0.2[0] MAR 0>0.2[0] APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>0.2[0]

I thought this was VERY interesting. G4 has not even flown routes like SFB-IAD or PGD-MDW. It will be interesting to see if this strategy gets expanded. It's also super-competitive with WN/AA/UA. NK used to be in it (Phoenix-Houston) too I think, but probably suspended. I wouldn't be surprised if F9 was in it too.

This is one is a bit of a head scratcher. As somebody mentioned I am guessing too that the flight might be to take people from the Phoenix area to Houston for cruises once they start again. Might be some leisure traffic from Houston to Phoenix in the winter but probably most people in Houston who want a winter getaway go to Florida/Mexico/Caribbean.

sprxUSA wrote:

As for SLC-WYS on OO/DL, seasonal EAS route, so what's the big deal about that?

Looks like the season is starting a month earlier and has a bit more capacity.

enilria wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

FlyPNS1 wrote:

Nice find and very weird. It seems to be an abuse of EAS funding to connect MSL to PNS...given that PNS is not a hub that provides any connectivity, nor is it a large O&D market. I get that it gives people of Northern AL and Southern TN an opportunity to go on vacation, but that's not really the goal of EAS.

Putting aside the question of EAS abuse - and I tend to agree with you, just setting it to the side for the sake of discussion - MSL-PNS likely has more O&D traffic that might look at flying than does MSL-BNA. MSL-BNA is an easy, two-hour drive. MSL-PNS/Destin is a pain.

But one of the criteria for SCASD is supposed to be linking into a hub in order to allow passengers access to the national air travel system. PNS isn't a dead end, but it is close. BNA is a de facto WN hub which means reasonably prices connects. PNS makes no sense and I wouldn't have approved the swap if it was my call. It will be empty.

It is an EAS location, not a SCASD granted community. And the ATL flights are the real important ones, forget BNA. They abandoned the MSL-BNA route before so it seemingly is a loser. On another front, I cant see their Merced-Sacramento,CA being a winner either.

[quote="enilria"]FAQ

BA BOS-LHR JAN 1.7>1.0[1.7] FEB 2>1.0[4]
BA BWI-LHR JAN 0.4>0[0.4] FEB 0.6>0[1.1]
BA IAH-LHR JAN 0.8>0.5[0.8] FEB 1.0>0.7[1.8]
BA LAX-LHR JAN 1.4>1.0[1.4] FEB 1.6>1.0[3]
BA LHR-MIA JAN 2>1.3[2] FEB 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-ORD JAN 1.7>1.0[1.7] FEB 2>1.0[2]
BA LHR-SJC JAN 0.4>0[0.4] FEB 0.6>0[1.0]

I know that SJC and BWI are secondary markets but you'd think with the new testing protocol (in lieu of the UK's 14-day isolation), BA would step it up on LAX and MIA especially since AA will not be operating these in January and February. Is AA still planning to restart ORD/CLT/JFK-LHR in January?