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Boeing757100
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Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:55 pm

Depending on if the situation right now improves within the next 1-2 years, I think we'd still see some aircraft being retired. This is because of the possibility of a post-COVID demand-slump and unless a sudden rise in demand comes soon, we still may see retirements. We just don't know which ones will be retired.

From the US3, I can predict that the following aircraft are in danger.

- Delta A320-200
- Delta 757??????????? (HUGE question mark here)
- United 757-200
- United 767-300ER
- United CRJ-200

To the big 3 in Europe...

- Lufthansa A340-600
- British Airways A380
- Lufthansa A380
- Lufthansa 747-400

ME3
- Qatar and Etihad A380

Others
- Austrian Airlines 767-300ER
- Air India 747-400???? (another question)


Any others?
Boeing is bringing back the 707 tomorrow, with Shinkai as the Chief Executive Officer and FLAIRPORT as the Chief Financial Officer.
 
WN732
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:02 pm

I'm not so sure about the UA 767-300. They just resurrected their eldest example from ROW and ferried her to HKG for its reintroduction to service. They also lopped up the youngest of HA's 767-300's not very long ago. Some of them have quite a bit of life left in them, and they are cheap to keep on-premise. American was in the opposite spectrum where they had some very old examples in both fleets, and it made sense to let them go.

I agree with your DL assessment, as it seems that Delta pulls no punches when it comes to fleet management.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:20 pm

Many, but recognize the value of retiring all of a type (or even a type family) to simplify pilot labor groupings. Retiring some 757s or 767s by DL or UA means you still have the 757/753/763/764 labor pools. DL can retire the A320s but will still have the pilot pools for 319/321. You don't get the full savings. So, one has to ask, 'Why retire an old aircraft early?' You've already spent the $ for acquisition and major maintenance costs. So you retire it just before its last heavy check? You really haven't gained much by retiring a single aircraft at age 27 instead of 30.
 
ethernal
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:38 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Many, but recognize the value of retiring all of a type (or even a type family) to simplify pilot labor groupings. Retiring some 757s or 767s by DL or UA means you still have the 757/753/763/764 labor pools. DL can retire the A320s but will still have the pilot pools for 319/321. You don't get the full savings. So, one has to ask, 'Why retire an old aircraft early?' You've already spent the $ for acquisition and major maintenance costs. So you retire it just before its last heavy check? You really haven't gained much by retiring a single aircraft at age 27 instead of 30.


Yes, Delta retiring A320s and 757s makes no sense for this exact reason.

Delta will retire the A320s slowly when it makes economic sense since they already have A321ceos with extremely high commonality. Especially since there is no A320/738-sized aircraft in the order books that would trigger replacement.

The 757s will likely persist so long as the 763s exist in the fleet. They'll probably leave at relatively similar times.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:39 pm

Since we are speculating:

Lufthansa A340-300 and 747-8: Some will inevitably scream sacrilege at the latter, but the type is too big and I don't think we've seen the last cuts. There will also be the first 777-9 coming eventually, which could be making it superfluous. The former will see its career ending when additional A350s and the first 787-9 arrive.

Swiss A340-300: Almost speaks for itself. Cutbacks, type is old and the fleet is tiny.

Aeroflot 777, 737, SSJ and A330: A330 will be retired, the 777 and SSJ transferred to Rossiya, 737 going to Pobeda.

KLM A330: Between cutbacks and additional 787s, it is only a matter of time. I don't expect them to last until 2025.

Air France A318 and A319. A220 is replacing the two. Just maybe the 777-200ER, completely depending on the A350 delivery schedule.

Singapore Airlines: A330, 777-200, 777-300A - Confirmed already. 737-800 - I'd expect them to be replaced rather quickly by the MAX.
 
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InnsbruckFlyer
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:50 am

I think that OS will replace its 767/777 fleet with 787s in the next couple of years. Maybe also their A321s, which are both old and to my knowledge haven't flown since March.
Last flown aircraft: DH8D OE-LGN < DH8D OE-LGI < E195 OE-LWE < DH8D OE-LGI < A320 D-AIUR < A320 D-AIZM < B738 PH-HZJ < B737 PH-XRD < B772 N766AN < B738 N855NN < B788 N45905 < A319 N808UA < A320 N482UA < B752 N19117
 
maps4ltd
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:49 am

I would say the DL CRJ-200s are in danger. Several already rest in Arizona.

Another one--the Spirit A319. With all these NEOs coming onboard, could it mean the end of the line for those faithful birds?
Also, I know this is a subfleet of a subfleet, but Frontier's oldest A320s (the ones with wingtip fences instead of sharklets) could go the way of the dodo.
Next flights:
Who knows? :/
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:52 am

DL 100% will not be outright retiring the A320 or B757 in the next 1-2 years. No further speculation needed.

DL removed 10 from service this year, taking the active fleet from 62 to 52. They currently have about 40 in service with the balance still in storage.
They are currently putting A320s through heavy maintenance, and the 10 that were retired this year where ones earlier in 2020 that were next-up for heavy maintenance. They have sense resumed putting them through maintenance. There is always the potential to make frame-specific retirements when heavy maintenance checks are due, but right now thats not what is happening. Realistically, the next tranche of ~10 or so A320s that would come due would be the ones that went through their last and final HMVs in 2018/2019 which would be target for retirement in the 2022-2023 timeframe.

Pretty similar story with the 757s. About 70 of the 100 frames are back in service, and they have 8-10 currently going through heavy maintenance checks. Realistically the 757s probably won't start in large numbers until ~2025-2026 timeframe, but there is always the possibility of frame specific retirements as maintenance checks are due.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:54 am

DL has already confirmed:
CRJ-200s by Dec 2023
B717s by Dec 2025
B763 by Dec 2025

There won't be any other outright fleet retirements beyond those fleet types in the next 5 years.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:14 am

UA seems to be reverting to a DL-style fleet strategy by keeping older (paid off) planes and even buying some used examples (763 from HA, 73G from (where?) and A319 from China Southern). Now DLs old planes are thoroughly obsolete and they exploring new options and buying replacements. I believe UA has stated they intended on adding Polaris to the 764 so my dream is to see them take on DLs if that happens. For UA the last PW 752s probably won't return, they're old with a unique engine to the fleet made all but official with the MAX returning.

The big question in the US (not just UA) is what will happen to markets currently all 50 seaters. The most obvious answer (short of a radical change in the minds of airlines or a totally cheap new RJ) is decreased frequency with 70-76 seaters and maybe airlines like Boutique and Silver get to grow more on the void.

I'd expect all A340s to be gone, which makes me sad because that's the one remaining Airbus I really want to fly on (got 380, 320 family except 18, and 350, don't care to be on the 330). LH has stated that they want to keep the 748 and I believe them, but I'm sure they will only go through one more heavy check before the bitter end.

MIflyer12 wrote:
757/753/763/764 labor pools

It's all one type rating. Those pilots love it because they can fly DEN-JAC on a 752 one day, LAX-HNL the next, and then IAH-SCL on a 763, or EWR-TXL on a 764 within a week.
ethernal wrote:
The 757s will likely persist so long as the 763s exist in the fleet. They'll probably leave at relatively similar times.

The writing is on the wall though, the 321neoXLR is now coming. The 757s probably will probably be out at the next C check.
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The thoughts and opinions shared under this username are mine and are not influenced by my employer.
 
CWL757
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:29 am

Off the top of my head and a few predictions-
TUI 752
TUI 763
Jet2 733
Jet2 752
BA A319
BA A321ceo
Transavia 737-700
KLM 737-700
SAS 737
Finnair A319
Loganair S2000
Loganair S340
Loganair E135/145 (?)
A319, A320, 738, 743, 744, 752, 772, 788, C150, E175, E190, F70, R22
 
ethernal
Posts: 406
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 2:16 pm

TWA772LR wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:
757/753/763/764 labor pools

It's all one type rating. Those pilots love it because they can fly DEN-JAC on a 752 one day, LAX-HNL the next, and then IAH-SCL on a 763, or EWR-TXL on a 764 within a week.
ethernal wrote:
The 757s will likely persist so long as the 763s exist in the fleet. They'll probably leave at relatively similar times.

The writing is on the wall though, the 321neoXLR is now coming. The 757s probably will probably be out at the next C check.


Only a fraction of Delta's 752s are used on 321neoXLR-type missions (which, by the way, Delta hasn't formally ordered) so the A321neoXLR coming has little bearing on the retirement (or lack thereof) of the 752.

Most of the 752 fleet (and 753) is workhorse part of the day-to-day daily domestic ops. It is true that Delta certainly envisions that the A321neo is the replacement for the 757, but right now Delta has a mid-term capacity hole in its fleet. It is unlikely Delta will be on a buying spree: demand return is uncertain and they just levered the heck up and look a lot more like the post-bankruptcy Delta than they do the Delta of 2019. What does that mean? It means re-executing their "milk the old" strategy to help rebuild the balance sheet is likely to be played. What does that mean? It means that the 757 for domestic ops is likely to stay.

I'm not a 757 fanboy, but the 757 is not like the 777, 717, and MD-88/MD-90 fleet. It is not like the old MD planes (including the 717) as it is well supported due to the large-scale cargo ops so part supplies are plentiful. It is not a tiny subfleet like the 777 (albeit the engine diversity does raise complexity). It is not a stand-alone type given that it has pilot commonality with the 767 which is staying at least until 2025 in its MoM role. There is no specific forcing function that will make the 757 a target for a mass retirement. Will they selectively retire them when it makes sense? Yes, but I don't see a rapid departure from their fleet. The only way that happens is if post-COVID demand collapse is worse than expected and they need to make further permanent, structural cuts to capacity.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Possible aircraft retirements within the next 1-2 years

Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:43 pm

The SAS 737s are also scheduled for retirement, they'll be replaced by A320NEOs. This will mean SAS will become an all-Airbus airline.

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