https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN28C223

Ryanair do appears imminent on closing a deal for 75 MAX jets. Apparently a Boeing opened private jet landed in Dublin fuelling rumours that there might be an announcement in the US by Ryanair bosses

Well, at least we know they don't really want to wait around on airshows at this point for announcements. If the financing is in place and certainly Boeing has the inventory/availability to deliver quite a few if needed in the next year or five, I imagine it is a quicker negotiation than usual.

Oh good good. No more need to discuss idiot rumours of them (or Southwest) "buying Airbus" planes

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

Wonder if these will be High Density -8s or -10s.

More details from Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -to-boeing

Announcement could come as early as Thursday.

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

Simpleflying says that according to Bloomberg a quarter of 450 MAXs are whitetails.
https://simpleflying.com/southwest-boei ... hite-tail/

From Wiki:
"Ryanair launched a new base of operation in Charleroi Airport in 2001. Later that year, the airline ordered 155 new 737-800 aircraft from Boeing at what was believed to be a substantial discount, to be delivered over eight years from 2002 to 2010.[33] Approximately 100 of these aircraft had been delivered by the end of 2005
...
On 8 September 2014, Ryanair agreed to purchase up to 200 Boeing 737 MAX 8s (100 confirmed and 100 options) for over $22 billion.
...

"
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair

Anybody knows how many of their planes need replacement?
Any leases that expire?

texl1649 wrote:

Well, at least we know they don't really want to wait around on airshows at this point for announcements. If the financing is in place and certainly Boeing has the inventory/availability to deliver quite a few if needed in the next year or five, I imagine it is a quicker negotiation than usual.

What is this 'airshow' you speak if?

Boeing needs an order and the best deal goes to the first large order announced (or at least, that is what I would do).

I expect some other announcements.

Lightsaber

texl1649 wrote:

Well, at least we know they don't really want to wait around on airshows at this point for announcements. If the financing is in place and certainly Boeing has the inventory/availability to deliver quite a few if needed in the next year or five, I imagine it is a quicker negotiation than usual.

I don't think there will be any airshows for 2021 given the coronavirus situation.

calstanford wrote:

Oh good good. No more need to discuss idiot rumours of them (or Southwest) "buying Airbus" planes

You realise this is A.net, right?

jeffrey0032j wrote:

I don't think there will be any airshows for 2021 given the coronavirus situation.

There could be some in fall or late-2021 as the vaccine distribution should have things all but wrapped up by then.

Many lessors are also headquartered in Dublin.

SA280 wrote:

Many lessors are also headquartered in Dublin.

Please reference Reply #6 with a Bloomberg post confirming it is Ryanair.

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

ikolkyo wrote:

Wonder if these will be High Density -8s or -10s.

Good question. Does Ryanair have a fair number of high frequency routes where they could use capacity to reduce frequency and improve gate/pilot utilization?

It's a good job I don't fly RyanAir then.

The existing 738 aircraft have 189 seats; a high density Max has only a slight increase in number of seats
The only route that in 2019 had a high enough frequency where one rotation might possibly be removed due to extra Max seat capacity is Stansted-Dublin

MIflyer12 wrote:

ikolkyo wrote:

Wonder if these will be High Density -8s or -10s.

Good question. Does Ryanair have a fair number of high frequency routes where they could use capacity to reduce frequency and improve gate/pilot utilization?

They were the main driver behind the 737MAX-8 200s;

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2014-09-08-Boeing-Launches-737-MAX-200-with-Ryanair
"While the heart of the single-aisle market will remain at 160 seats, the 737 MAX 200 will provide carriers like Ryanair with up to 11 more seats of potential revenue and up to 5 percent lower operating costs than the 737 MAX 8."

this was achieved by:

"Based on the 737 MAX 8 airframe, the 737 MAX 200 can accommodate up to 200 seats by incorporating a mid-exit door increasing the exit limit. The airframe is 2.2 meters longer than the A320neo, "

So, it was a push, but a variant created mainly at the request of FR (and likely waiting to be marketed to any other LCC out there that wants to grow the platform). If this is a re-order, or a re-organization of that order - it would maintain a line of former thinking at the carrier in that (from the same angle):

""These new "gamechanger" aircraft will allow Ryanair to lower our costs and airfares, while improving our customer experience with more leg room and the Boeing Sky Interior, as we roll out new offers, particularly for our Business Plus and Family Extra customers. As many of Europe's flag carriers cut capacity on short haul routes, Ryanair looks forward to using these new Boeing 737 MAX 200s to grow at many more of Europe's primary airports," said O'Leary"

.

So, it seems as if they found what they were looking for, at least back then. Admittedly, the article and statements are from 09/08/2014, before proper development of the 737 MAX 10, and the overall issues with the MAX (as we roll forward from that now). So, there is space for debate - as to how FR is responding to current realities - and the art of that, they have proven to do well with before.

A 737 MAX 10, maximized for capacity would likely still have sufficient range to handle most European trunk routes, and work well within the same ethos - though pricing would have to be keen for FR.

As much as additional 737 MAXs (not optimized for capacity) could serve the carrier as a potent platform for trans-atlantic flying in future.

Either way, I'm excited to see what comes of this!

How many of the white tails are the 737 Max 200 version?

bond787 wrote:

How many of the white tails are the 737 Max 200 version?

As far as I know none. I believe Ryanair and Vietjet are the only ones who ordered the 200. Obviously Ryanair’s are not white tails, but I don’t know Vietjet’s current status/financial position. In any event Vietjet’s first Max only rolled out this past February so few have been built.

Nothing precludes Ryanair from taking regular -8 whitetails though. They would after all match the configuration of their large 738 fleet and if the price is right...

Polot wrote:

bond787 wrote:

How many of the white tails are the 737 Max 200 version?

but I don’t know Vietjet’s current status/financial position. In any event Vietjet’s first Max only rolled out this past February so few have been built.

Vietjet business is actually the best of all Southeast Asian carriers at this moment, as VJ network have always relied much on the domestic network which is almost recovered as the coronavirus situation inside Vietnam is being well controlled.
Only one VJ MAX 200 airframe was built right before Boeing suspend the production of the type. And I am sure that VJ would love to receive its gigantic order of MAX 200 as soon as possible because it needs many airframes to expand its Thai subsidiary, and seems like it wants to retire the A320ceos because the 180-seat size is not very suitable for the Vietnamese market.
There are also rumors that VJ will even some more toys from Boeing after Biden takes over the White House. In fact, Trump was so happy with VJ's order of 200 MAXes as it was one of the biggest transactions between Vietnam S.R. and the USA.

Rajahdhani wrote:

"Based on the 737 MAX 8 airframe, the 737 MAX 200 can accommodate up to 200 seats by incorporating a mid-exit door increasing the exit limit. The airframe is 2.2 meters longer than the A320neo, "

So, it was a push, but a variant created mainly at the request of FR (and likely waiting to be marketed to any other LCC out there that wants to grow the platform). If this is a re-order, or a re-organization of that order - it would maintain a line of former thinking at the carrier in that (from the same angle):

So, it seems as if they found what they were looking for, at least back then. Admittedly, the article and statements are from 09/08/2014, before proper development of the 737 MAX 10, and the overall issues with the MAX (as we roll forward from that now).

Thanks for the recap but a lot has happened in six years: the development of the -10 (as you note), Covid, and Brexit.

Galwayman wrote:

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

I can't see the genius in there, really. MOL (or Ryanair more specifically,...no fan of those personality cults) made an opportunistic move at a time where business climate improvement is definitiely on the horizon. And where the need to constantly roll over the fleet hasn't gone away. And where further the constraints of keeping the cost base really only allowed continuing with the 737.

So it is not as if this was a miracle of any sort. That doesn't negate the fact that this order is welcomed by Boeing and Ryanair alike. Congrats to both.

Galwayman wrote:

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing?

LAX772LR wrote:

Galwayman wrote:

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing?

Well funnily enough ....Easyjet is busy doing extremely stupid sales and leasebacks at the moment , sending their fleet costs through the ceiling which will allow Wizz to slaughter them on costs at Gatwick over the next 24 months .... so clearly not everyone is as bright as MOL .

LAX772LR wrote:

Galwayman wrote:

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing?

Of course not. But there are only a handful of airlines that would have access to financing with good terms right now. FR and WN being among them. The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.

Galwayman wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

Galwayman wrote:

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing?

Well funnily enough ....Easyjet is busy doing extremely stupid sales and leasebacks at the moment , sending their fleet costs through the ceiling which will allow Wizz to slaughter them on costs at Gatwick over the next 24 months .... so clearly not everyone is as bright as MOL .

They need to raise cash in a hurry, give them some credit, "extremely stupid" is a bit harsh!

Galwayman wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

Galwayman wrote:

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing?

Well funnily enough ....Easyjet is busy doing extremely stupid sales and leasebacks at the moment , sending their fleet costs through the ceiling which will allow Wizz to slaughter them on costs at Gatwick over the next 24 months .... so clearly not everyone is as bright as MOL .

Right - it's not the idea as much as the ability to be ready to do so when the opportunity comes about.

Galwayman wrote:

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

Treating your workforce like slaves is really something you shouldn’t be proud of.

Antarius wrote:

Right - it's not the idea as much as the ability to be ready to do so when the opportunity comes about.

One has enough equity to be creditworthy and can take advantage of the opportunity.
One is highly leveraged and has to sell assets to survive.


Two different business philosophies. Since black swans or recessions in general can't be predicted I also call the one smarter than the other.

LAX772LR wrote:

...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing?

Most successful business people that I know personally make pretty simple decisions that might seem obvious. As mentioned above, the real genius is to consistently be in a position to be able to make these decisions at the right time when your competitors can't or wont.

marcelh wrote:

Galwayman wrote:

Antarius wrote:

MOL really embodies "never waste a good crisis". Shrewdly timed purchases are his hallmark.

The man's a genius, well done FR once again

Treating your workforce like slaves is really something you shouldn’t be proud of.

The guy has been the driving force of a hugely successful airline that has managed to expand even through some of the worst crisis in living history. I wouldn't need to be proud of the tactics to still see the genius.

With regard to treating staff like slaves, this may or may not be true, but RyanAir have been around now for decades and their pay, conditions and "ethos" are well known. Nobody is forced into working for them and by now the vast majority of their staff walked into that environment with their eyes wide open.

https://twitter.com/andreassteno/status ... 16999?s=21

News has broken. Reuters also reporting. Confirmation from Boeing should follow shortly

CNBC is confirming as well - 75 MAX to Ryanair

Boeing press release: https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-12-03 ... 7-MAX-Jets

All 737-8-200s again

I am sure they got a really good price, and can get them anyone they want

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I am sure they got a really good price, and can get them anyone they want

Apparently with a 67% discount. So about 41 million. That sounds about right

Quick Q. I would expect the 737-8-200 to be more popular since it can take more people on the same frame? Can anyone elaborate on the draw backs

That's a good news for both Boeing and Airbus. Some confidence in air travel

Deliveries from 2021 through 2024: https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryan ... ?market=en

Boeing/Ryanair are discussing a 737 MAX 10 order: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1334520041392496641

I find the idea that FR or WN will add a second fleet in the middle of a crisis is an odd one, along with the idea that Airbus will decide to invest in a new model for a financially weak program during a crisis. FR using a crisis to extract a great deal on the one airplane type in its fleet is not odd, it's just them doing the same thing they've done in the past. I suspect WN will follow in the not too distant future.

Opus99 wrote:

Quick Q. I would expect the 737-8-200 to be more popular since it can take more people on the same frame? Can anyone elaborate on the draw backs

Seat pitch at 28 inches, slimline lavatories. Stuffed-to-the-brim overhead lockers.

Opus99 wrote:

Quick Q. I would expect the 737-8-200 to be more popular since it can take more people on the same frame? Can anyone elaborate on the draw backs

As the MAX 200 only has 2 customers: Ryanair Group (215) and Vietjet Group (100), total just 315 airframes, so it is not so popular in comparison to the original MAX 8.
Having 200 pax on the 738-size airframe is truly a disaster (~28" pitch?!) and not many carriers risking doing that, except aggressive ULCCs like FR and VJ.

Twenty-eight inch seat pitch? Add U.S. carriers Spirit and Frontier. Even AA was going to 29" at the back of the Oasis 738/MAX 8.

Ryanair's total order is 210 a/c now.

Ishrion wrote:

Boeing/Ryanair are discussing a 737 MAX 10 order: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1334520041392496641

I was actually expecting this to be a -10 order. Still, it's almost certain to happen, especially with Wizz and Easyjet flying 240 seat A321s.

Opus99 wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I am sure they got a really good price, and can get them anyone they want

Apparently with a 67% discount. So about 41 million. That sounds about right

First of all, 41 million is not really cheap.
I doubt that they will be paying that much and if they are, they negotiated a pretty bad deal IMO.
In the 1990's, list prices used to be about that and it's not like wages have doubled since.

Call me whatever you want, but IMO MOL is getting ahead of himself here.
Not the time to be paying deposits for long term purchases, airlines should be saving every penny they can. Fuel prices are low, no need to have more fuel efficient engines. Fleets are grounded and not building cycles, many used airframes available for cheaps.
As discussed in non-av, investors are getting ahead of themselves on the vaccine news.
Too early to call the end of the crisis. In fact, look at the numbers, things have never been worse since the crisis started and early vaccine data is (intentionally) very vague to say the least.
Things were bad after 9/11, but the outlook was much less murky than it is now.

Some opportunities are worth wasting.

CRJ900 wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

Quick Q. I would expect the 737-8-200 to be more popular since it can take more people on the same frame? Can anyone elaborate on the draw backs

Seat pitch at 28 inches, slimline lavatories. Stuffed-to-the-brim overhead lockers.

To be fair, FR have been taking steps to limit how many cabin sized bags (i.e. standard size) are brought on board in recent years. I think the limit is about 90 bags and it was something they advertise/used to advertise on the boarding passes you print at home. I doubt that will change on the MAX 8-200 (or 8200 or whatever they're calling it nowadays) despite squeezing a few more seats in due to physical space.

I did note at the time how their new policy on carry-on bags to encourage people to pay to take on board or check into the hold is the result of their drive over the years to reduce hold luggage. Funny how things change over time. Time will tell how easyJet's new policy which appears to be along similar lines is received.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I am sure they got a really good price, and can get them anyone they want

Apparently with a 67% discount. So about 41 million. That sounds about right

First of all, 41 million is not really cheap.
I doubt that they will be paying that much and if they are, they negotiated a pretty bad deal IMO.
In the 1990's, list prices used to be about that and it's not like wages have doubled since.

Call me whatever you want, but IMO MOL is getting ahead of himself here.
Not the time to be paying deposits for long term purchases, airlines should be saving every penny they can. Fuel prices are low, no need to have more fuel efficient engines. Fleets are grounded and not building cycles, many used airframes available for cheaps.
As discussed in non-av, investors are getting ahead of themselves on the vaccine news.
Too early to call the end of the crisis. In fact, look at the numbers, things have never been worse since the crisis started and vaccine data is very vague to say the least.
Things were bad after 9/11, but the outlook was much less murky than it is now.

That’s what Reuters is saying. It might very well be around the 38 million

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:

I am sure they got a really good price, and can get them anyone they want

Apparently with a 67% discount. So about 41 million. That sounds about right

First of all, 41 million is not really cheap.
I doubt that they will be paying that much and if they are, they negotiated a pretty bad deal IMO.
In the 1990's, list prices used to be about that and it's not like wages have doubled since.

Call me whatever you want, but IMO MOL is getting ahead of himself here.
Not the time to be paying deposits for long term purchases, airlines should be saving every penny they can. Fuel prices are low, no need to have more fuel efficient engines. Fleets are grounded and not building cycles, many used airframes available for cheaps.
As discussed in non-av, investors are getting ahead of themselves on the vaccine news.
Too early to call the end of the crisis. In fact, look at the numbers, things have never been worse since the crisis started and early vaccine data is (intentionally) very vague to say the least.
Things were bad after 9/11, but the outlook was much less murky than it is now.

Some opportunities are worth wasting.

It should be no surprise that an ULCC is leading the charge in new airframe purchases. The uncertainty in demand return is primarily on business travel, not leisure travel. For developed countries, things will be back to normal by Summer '21 and leisure travel is almost certain to return in force - if not overshoot due to pent up demand. ULCC cater primarily to the leisure market, so they should feel confident in forward-looking demand assuming they can safely survive through next Spring.

It is the legacies/those who focus on business travel that are at risk. Excess capacity (due to lack of business travel) could force downward pressure on even ULCC fares but the aggregate demand will almost certainly be there.