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Revelation
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Twenty-eight inch seat pitch? Add U.S. carriers Spirit and Frontier. Even AA was going to 29" at the back of the Oasis 738/MAX 8.

It's odd, in Boeing's presser linked above MoL says this will actually lead to increased leg room, so apparently they have some 27" seats in their fleet?

MoL also says this will lead to lower fares for the next decade, time for the commoners to rejoice!
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Polot
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:15 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
In the 1990's, list prices used to be about that and it's not like wages have doubled since.

Inflation is what matters, not what wages have done. $40 mil in 1999 is about $62.5 mil today.

Also “cheap” is a relative term. What other brand new aircraft can you get for $40 mil and how does that aircraft’s capability compare with the Max 8 200? If others are/were buying brand new A320neo/737Max at say $60+ mil a pop then yes $40 mil is cheap. If $40 mil only got you a A221 then yes the much larger and more capable 737 max 8 200 is cheap.
 
SEU
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:19 pm

Fantastic order for Boeing, but this isnt surprising, MOL saw the $$$ and went for it.

The 737-8200 will be a poor customer experience, but they as Ryanair knows, when your prices are so low, if someone doesnt want to buy, someone else will.

Out of curiosity, could the 8200 be the best CASM on any new narrowbody?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:19 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I am sure they got a really good price, and can get them anyone they want

Not the time to be paying deposits for long term purchases, airlines should be saving every penny they can. Fuel prices are low, no need to have more fuel efficient engines. Fleets are grounded and not building cycles, many used airframes available for cheaps.
As discussed in non-av, investors are getting ahead of themselves on the vaccine news.
Too early to call the end of the crisis. In fact, look at the numbers, things have never been worse since the crisis started and early vaccine data is (intentionally) very vague to say the least.

I agree with your plea for conservatism, but we really don't know anything about the financial structure of the deal. I would be surprised if in this climate that A or B could get airlines to give them meaningful cash deposits. Our friend smartplane has suggested there is a lot of financial creativity going on. It means A or B need to take more risk of cancellation than they would in normal times, but they really don't have much of a choice if they want orders in this climate.
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:20 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.


1. LCCs attract their fair share of business travel as well
2. Legacy carriers attract their fair share of leisure travel as well, long-haul in particular is dominated by legacy carriers
3: Your crystal ball seem to be tuned differently than mine
4: Those same companies have also found that you can only accomplish so much on a conference call
5: My crystal ball says business travel will not only full recover but will, in time, grow far beyond 2019 levels
Signature. You just read one.
 
Breathe
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Twenty-eight inch seat pitch? Add U.S. carriers Spirit and Frontier. Even AA was going to 29" at the back of the Oasis 738/MAX 8.

It's odd, in Boeing's presser linked above MoL says this will actually lead to increased leg room, so apparently they have some 27" seats in their fleet?

MoL also says this will lead to lower fares for the next decade, time for the commoners to rejoice!

Perhaps the fares will be lower, but who knows what other charges he'll slap on in that time... "Want to use the toilet? £1 please, and buy a Ryanair scratch card while you're at it!" :D
 
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OA260
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 4:52 pm

Breathe wrote:
Revelation wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Twenty-eight inch seat pitch? Add U.S. carriers Spirit and Frontier. Even AA was going to 29" at the back of the Oasis 738/MAX 8.

It's odd, in Boeing's presser linked above MoL says this will actually lead to increased leg room, so apparently they have some 27" seats in their fleet?

MoL also says this will lead to lower fares for the next decade, time for the commoners to rejoice!

Perhaps the fares will be lower, but who knows what other charges he'll slap on in that time... "Want to use the toilet? £1 please, and buy a Ryanair scratch card while you're at it!" :D


On a recent flight with them ( first time in years ) it seems even the scratch cards are hard to sell. They were doing a buy 10 get 10 free offer ;) The only passengers that decided to bite only had cash so it was a no sale .

Congrats to Boeing and FR though its a much needed boost to the type.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:14 pm

SEU wrote:
The 737-8200 will be a poor customer experience, but they as Ryanair knows, when your prices are so low, if someone doesnt want to buy, someone else will.
Out of curiosity, could the 8200 be the best CASM on any new narrowbody?

The experience would be just similar to the Y240-A321neo (Wizz and Vietjet say hi).
About the efficiency, we have to wait for planes from FR and VJ to enter commercial services, and then we can give the most exact evaluation.
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
airzona11
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:16 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I am sure they got a really good price, and can get them anyone they want

Apparently with a 67% discount. So about 41 million. That sounds about right


First of all, 41 million is not really cheap.
I doubt that they will be paying that much and if they are, they negotiated a pretty bad deal IMO.
In the 1990's, list prices used to be about that and it's not like wages have doubled since.

Call me whatever you want, but IMO MOL is getting ahead of himself here.
Not the time to be paying deposits for long term purchases, airlines should be saving every penny they can. Fuel prices are low, no need to have more fuel efficient engines. Fleets are grounded and not building cycles, many used airframes available for cheaps.
As discussed in non-av, investors are getting ahead of themselves on the vaccine news.
Too early to call the end of the crisis. In fact, look at the numbers, things have never been worse since the crisis started and early vaccine data is (intentionally) very vague to say the least.
Things were bad after 9/11, but the outlook was much less murky than it is now.

Some opportunities are worth wasting.


Time will tell, but for the sake of the aviation industry and the world economies, the MOLs of the world move us forward. The single fleet type no doubt helps Ryanair here. All the legacies that are having to park the varied fleets that are available for lease arent in the position to place the new orders. While the economy and Covid have whacked the economics, airlines clearly had undesirable terms and planes on their books, quick to take the write-downs and remove the fleets. Circle back to Ryanair, business travel/long haul will be suppressed longer, meaning more competition and in their wheelhouse, short haul p2p leisure. The 7382000 is a CASM machine, ideal for that.
 
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 5:42 pm

airzona11 wrote:
The single fleet type no doubt helps Ryanair here.

Looks like the plan is to become even more Boeing oriented through 2026 as A320s held in subsidiaries get squeezed out by more MAXes. I imagine MAXes in that configuration reach CASM points that make A320ceo functionally obsolete, even before you consider the benefits of a single fleet.

Image

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 98/photo/1
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:02 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Call me whatever you want, but IMO MOL is getting ahead of himself here.
Not the time to be paying deposits for long term purchases, airlines should be saving every penny they can. Fuel prices are low, no need to have more fuel efficient engines. Fleets are grounded and not building cycles, many used airframes available for cheaps.

Some opportunities are worth wasting.


I don't believe he is getting ahead of himself at all - he did something similar in the past. Everyone was cancelling orders at that time and he ordered at a steep discount and reaped the benefits. Ryanair should absolutely be taking advantage of the downturn, as should any airline that has good financials (which is probably limited to Ryanair and virtually nobody else). Ryanair also don't do used aircraft - which is similar to many low cost carriers.

Nice to see a differing opinion, but I'm with MOL on this one.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
ethernal
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
The single fleet type no doubt helps Ryanair here.

Looks like the plan is to become even more Boeing oriented through 2026 as A320s held in subsidiaries get squeezed out by more MAXes. I imagine MAXes in that configuration reach CASM points that make A320ceo functionally obsolete, even before you consider the benefits of a single fleet.

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 98/photo/1


Single type benefits aside (which are definitely significant), why would the A320 be functionally obsolete but the 737NG not be?
 
Antarius
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:05 pm

ethernal wrote:
Revelation wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
The single fleet type no doubt helps Ryanair here.

Looks like the plan is to become even more Boeing oriented through 2026 as A320s held in subsidiaries get squeezed out by more MAXes. I imagine MAXes in that configuration reach CASM points that make A320ceo functionally obsolete, even before you consider the benefits of a single fleet.

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 98/photo/1


Single type benefits aside (which are definitely significant), why would the A320 be functionally obsolete but the 737NG not be?


I think they meant MAX vs a320ceo. the NG would be in the latter bucket as well.
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:10 pm

B777LRF wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.


1. LCCs attract their fair share of business travel as well
2. Legacy carriers attract their fair share of leisure travel as well, long-haul in particular is dominated by legacy carriers
3: Your crystal ball seem to be tuned differently than mine
4: Those same companies have also found that you can only accomplish so much on a conference call
5: My crystal ball says business travel will not only full recover but will, in time, grow far beyond 2019 levels

Travel must return. My employer us still profitable, but we have taken a huge efficiency hit under sociak distancing rules. I will flat out state that any company that doesn't track earned value or measure productivity with another tool has lost productivity and just doesn't know it.

There will be less travel for a while. But the companies that benchmark will return to travel and conferences. Some can be online, but you will not make a significant number if new advocates online, that takes person to person contact.

Ryanair will fill up on liesure, but then go into business demand.

Every business that doesn't control costs is in trouble. FR is great at it and thus... generates interesting comments.

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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:28 pm

I suspect that 27 inch pitch will rule out Ryanair/Wizz for me.
 
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:31 pm

lightsaber wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.


1. LCCs attract their fair share of business travel as well
2. Legacy carriers attract their fair share of leisure travel as well, long-haul in particular is dominated by legacy carriers
3: Your crystal ball seem to be tuned differently than mine
4: Those same companies have also found that you can only accomplish so much on a conference call
5: My crystal ball says business travel will not only full recover but will, in time, grow far beyond 2019 levels

Travel must return. My employer us still profitable, but we have taken a huge efficiency hit under sociak distancing rules. I will flat out state that any company that doesn't track earned value or measure productivity with another tool has lost productivity and just doesn't know it.

There will be less travel for a while. But the companies that benchmark will return to travel and conferences. Some can be online, but you will not make a significant number if new advocates online, that takes person to person contact.

Ryanair will fill up on liesure, but then go into business demand.

Every business that doesn't control costs is in trouble. FR is great at it and thus... generates interesting comments.

Lightsaber


Shrewd by FR with this order.

Business travel must and will comeback.
What percentage,if any, is permanently lost?
How long will it take to return to 2019 levels?
I would suggest we don’t know the answers here.
Bill Gates says 50% of business travel won’t
return. Who knows?

How many businesses will trade down from premium cabins like after the GFC?

Some of this may be less relevant for FR but they may capture their fair share of price-sensitive business travel
 
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:34 pm

lightsaber wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.


1. LCCs attract their fair share of business travel as well
2. Legacy carriers attract their fair share of leisure travel as well, long-haul in particular is dominated by legacy carriers
3: Your crystal ball seem to be tuned differently than mine
4: Those same companies have also found that you can only accomplish so much on a conference call
5: My crystal ball says business travel will not only full recover but will, in time, grow far beyond 2019 levels

Travel must return. My employer us still profitable, but we have taken a huge efficiency hit under sociak distancing rules. I will flat out state that any company that doesn't track earned value or measure productivity with another tool has lost productivity and just doesn't know it.

There will be less travel for a while. But the companies that benchmark will return to travel and conferences. Some can be online, but you will not make a significant number if new advocates online, that takes person to person contact.

Ryanair will fill up on liesure, but then go into business demand.

Every business that doesn't control costs is in trouble. FR is great at it and thus... generates interesting comments.

Lightsaber


Well, I work at an large bank which stated that business travel will be cut down to an bare minimum seeing proof that 95% of the business is functioning just fine. The profits will be much lower this year, but that is totally unrelated to the ability to have face to face meetings. The CFO contributes it to SMB's going bankrupt everywhere. If I was a betting man I would not bet on business travel returning to old quickly...
 
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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:38 pm

Fantastic news for both.
 
TC957
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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:42 pm

FR will still have to face negative connections to the crashes operating the MAX out of the UK.
BBC news headlines like todays " Boeing secures first MAX order since crashes " will be typical of what's to come.
Yes, I know Enter Air placed a MAX order this year....but you see my point that to the media any 737MAX
version however it'll be called will attract such unfortunate headlines.
 
ethernal
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 6:52 pm

Antarius wrote:
ethernal wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Looks like the plan is to become even more Boeing oriented through 2026 as A320s held in subsidiaries get squeezed out by more MAXes. I imagine MAXes in that configuration reach CASM points that make A320ceo functionally obsolete, even before you consider the benefits of a single fleet.

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 98/photo/1


Single type benefits aside (which are definitely significant), why would the A320 be functionally obsolete but the 737NG not be?


I think they meant MAX vs a320ceo. the NG would be in the latter bucket as well.


Yes, but the fleet is still primarily 737NG in 2026. Clearly it is not "functionally obsolete" otherwise they would be retired. :)

20% fuel efficiency gain is very solid but not sure it inherently makes the prior generation functionally obsolete. RyanAir's average segment length is only 775 miles, and well over a third of their flights are under 500 miles. There's a balance between capital costs, maintenance, and fuel consumption where both the NG (and A320ceo if it wasn't for the single-type strategy) and MAX co-exist in an economically valuable fashion. I am sure the MAX will be used on longer segments on average whereas the NG will focus on shorter segments. I am sure the NG capital costs are lower than the MAXes.
 
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:05 pm

ethernal wrote:
Antarius wrote:
ethernal wrote:

Single type benefits aside (which are definitely significant), why would the A320 be functionally obsolete but the 737NG not be?


I think they meant MAX vs a320ceo. the NG would be in the latter bucket as well.


Yes, but the fleet is still primarily 737NG in 2026. Clearly it is not "functionally obsolete" otherwise they would be retired. :)

20% fuel efficiency gain is very solid but not sure it inherently makes the prior generation functionally obsolete. RyanAir's average segment length is only 775 miles, and well over a third of their flights are under 500 miles. There's a balance between capital costs, maintenance, and fuel consumption where both the NG (and A320ceo if it wasn't for the single-type strategy) and MAX co-exist in an economically valuable fashion. I am sure the MAX will be used on longer segments on average whereas the NG will focus on shorter segments. I am sure the NG capital costs are lower than the MAXes.

20% fuel burn reduction is one generation if aircraft improvement. In general those planes are used in high utilization duty only, but if the rumored MAX discounts are the 20% from before, than that prices for mid-utilization (6 to 9 hours per day, on average).

Low utilization duty is always 1 or even 2 generations behind. There is no risk of some A320CEO ir 737BG being used for low utilization. However, low utilization is only flying when demand exceeds the other supply, so more of the larger guage aircraft will be preferred. The 73G and A319 will not be in demand, so many will be scrapped.

Now FR is a typically high utilization airline, but they'll keep some 738s for seasonal parking until other cists add up.

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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:26 pm

Good for Boeing ! And Ryanair, where can you order aircraft for delivery 2021. They are probably build already.

calstanford wrote:
Oh good good. No more need to discuss idiot rumours of them (or Southwest) "buying Airbus" planes


Ryanair Airbusses? Very few rumours there. It seems you are trying to camouflage something unwanted with something unlikely.
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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:33 pm

keesje wrote:
Good for Boeing ! And Ryanair, where can you order aircraft for delivery 2021. They are probably build already.

Considering the few amount of Max 200s currently built that are not already destined for FR unlikely.
 
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:44 pm

ethernal wrote:
Revelation wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
The single fleet type no doubt helps Ryanair here.

Looks like the plan is to become even more Boeing oriented through 2026 as A320s held in subsidiaries get squeezed out by more MAXes. I imagine MAXes in that configuration reach CASM points that make A320ceo functionally obsolete, even before you consider the benefits of a single fleet.

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 98/photo/1

Single type benefits aside (which are definitely significant), why would the A320 be functionally obsolete but the 737NG not be?

I didn't say they weren't. MOL has been pretty outspoken about the financial hit FR has taken due to the MAX groundings due to needing to operate the NGs longer than planned. NG are on the way out just like the A320ceo, and will be replaced by MAX as circumstances allow. This deal, plus adding MAX-10, should accelerate the process.

Antarius wrote:
I think they meant MAX vs a320ceo. the NG would be in the latter bucket as well.

Yes, the FR group has 28 A320ceo via the Lauda Air acquisition. The chart shows that decreasing with a pretty rapid pace.

ethernal wrote:
Yes, but the fleet is still primarily 737NG in 2026. Clearly it is not "functionally obsolete" otherwise they would be retired. :)

20% fuel efficiency gain is very solid but not sure it inherently makes the prior generation functionally obsolete. RyanAir's average segment length is only 775 miles, and well over a third of their flights are under 500 miles. There's a balance between capital costs, maintenance, and fuel consumption where both the NG (and A320ceo if it wasn't for the single-type strategy) and MAX co-exist in an economically valuable fashion. I am sure the MAX will be used on longer segments on average whereas the NG will focus on shorter segments. I am sure the NG capital costs are lower than the MAXes.

I guess the proof point will be when FR has to decide to do a big spend on the NGs, like put them through major maintenance. The MAXes are eye wateringly affordable, seat more passengers, and deliver better fuel burn. I'm not sure what term to use to describe the state the NGs find themselves in. Economically obsolescent may be a better choice.
Last edited by Revelation on Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:46 pm

Honestly, i am not surprised that this Ryanair order has been announced today. It's just days/weeks since the very positive coronavirus vaccin results were released, and the UK wants to start vaccinating its citizens by the end of this month, early next year. Ryanair has probably made the deal with Boeing that they will sign this order as soon the vaccins are on the go. MOL banks on the psychological effects of this whole pandemic, the "I need a break from this, as soon as this is over" feeling we all have.

New planes + even lower fares + vaccinated citizens = bingo for FR.
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
bob75013
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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:19 pm

Ryanair CEO says he wants another Boeing order within 18 months
" Ryanair hopes to agree another large order of the 737 MAX jets with manufacturer Boeing over the next 18 months and expects to be flying the 230-seat MAX 10 by 2025, Group Chief Executive Michael O'Leary told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanair- ... 20838.html
 
strfyr51
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:44 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Galwayman wrote:
The man's a genius, well done FR once again

...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing? :confused:


Of course not. But there are only a handful of airlines that would have access to financing with good terms right now. FR and WN being among them. The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.

Is that what you KNOW?? Or? What you wish??
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:45 pm

Congratulations to Boeing!

Condolences to Ryanair's customers.

But at least you're getting exactly what you paid for.
 
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qf789
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Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:09 pm

Could we please just discuss the topic and keep the flamebait out of the discussion. This includes not turning the thread into a Airbus vs Boeing flamewar
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 9:58 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
...because no one ever thought of making a large purchase during a time of low demand, in exchange for heavily discounted pricing? :confused:


Of course not. But there are only a handful of airlines that would have access to financing with good terms right now. FR and WN being among them. The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.

Is that what you KNOW?? Or? What you wish??


I am allowed my opinion. Legacy airlines wouldn't have permanently retired so many aircraft if they expected traffic to rebound after a vaccine. A simple Google search will yield thousands of articles of how businesses have made significant investments in digital communication this year. Legscies made their money off of $1200 coach tickets between small cities like MOB-ATL-GSP. The lackluster routes of graying consultants. Not to mention the people who insisted on face to face meetings for every little thing are aging off and dying out. The younger generation values more personal time and wants to get work done with quickly.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:02 pm

Polot wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
In the 1990's, list prices used to be about that and it's not like wages have doubled since.

Inflation is what matters, not what wages have done. $40 mil in 1999 is about $62.5 mil today.

Also “cheap” is a relative term. What other brand new aircraft can you get for $40 mil and how does that aircraft’s capability compare with the Max 8 200? If others are/were buying brand new A320neo/737Max at say $60+ mil a pop then yes $40 mil is cheap. If $40 mil only got you a A221 then yes the much larger and more capable 737 max 8 200 is cheap.


If inflation is what matters to you, do you think that we have seen fares inflate over the past 20-30 years? I don't think so. Fares are on a downtrend.
If fares are deflating, why should airlines pay more to purchase the aircraft, a cost that must be covered by decreasing fares?
Because Airbus and Boeing say so, so that they can distribute the increased margins to shareholders and ask for a bailout at the next downturn?
Because airlines spend less on fuel and should afford to pay the OEM's a bit more money?

I look at the bottom line of Airbus/EADS and Boeing. At the end of the day, an aircraft's value is 99% labor, 1% raw materials.
If labor cost doesn't double, and in fact is going down thanks to improved processes and automation, then is the cost of building aircraft going up?

If the cost of building aircraft is not going up and passengers are not paying more to fly the same routes, why should airlines pay more for their aircraft?
Inflation is a can of worms. You talk about it, use it as a scapegoat, but when you open it, all you have is worms spilling out of it.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1445
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:43 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Call me whatever you want, but IMO MOL is getting ahead of himself here.
Not the time to be paying deposits for long term purchases, airlines should be saving every penny they can. Fuel prices are low, no need to have more fuel efficient engines. Fleets are grounded and not building cycles, many used airframes available for cheaps.

Some opportunities are worth wasting.


I don't believe he is getting ahead of himself at all - he did something similar in the past. Everyone was cancelling orders at that time and he ordered at a steep discount and reaped the benefits. Ryanair should absolutely be taking advantage of the downturn, as should any airline that has good financials (which is probably limited to Ryanair and virtually nobody else). Ryanair also don't do used aircraft - which is similar to many low cost carriers.

Nice to see a differing opinion, but I'm with MOL on this one.


Ryanair have ok financials because they haven't been distributing their profits at will like many of their competitors.
However, right now they are burning about a billion a year.
More of an issue is the downward spiral that Ryanair was in. They ended 2019 with lower profits compared to previous years and 2020 wasn't looking particularly better.

I've been saying this for years: Ryanair was making strategic mistakes.
Expanding at higher cost airports while downsizing their low margin high volume routes, moving into a higher cost corporate HQ, going after business travel and high end leisure while walking away from the lower leisure ULCC segment that made Ryanair successful in the first place. Ryanair was on its way to becoming a pan-European legacy airline.
Very interestingly, they crawled back to the lower leisure segment for this winter to capture volume at negative margins.

With a completely changed post-covid landscape, an aggressive Wizzair, new ULCC competitors right and left, Ryanair may never be able to get out of the negative spiral they are in.

Buying new aircraft should be the least of their concerns right now.

Last but not least, Ryanair have ok financials, not good financials.
A big chunk of their assets are aircraft and aircraft valuations are very shaky right now.
The 10 billions or so in property and plants looks nice on their balance sheet, but that's what they paid for minus depreciation. If they were to liquidate their aircraft today, they'd probably get half if not less and end up being barely solvent. Of course, there is no reason to do so right now, but if we analyse it objectively, Ryanair's financials are only good on paper.

https://www.investing.com/equities/ryanair-holdings
 
Galwayman
Posts: 953
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:20 am

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 10:59 pm

New planes + even lower fares + vaccinated citizens = bingo for FR.[/quote]

Exactly. it's game ,set and match to FR once again. Eazyjet, LH, AF asleep at the while always.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 879
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Thu Dec 03, 2020 11:32 pm

People needs to realise Ryanair does not have business class, nor wardrobe partition between the front galley and first row.

Let us use AA's B738 as example, its configuration is wardrobe, 4 rows of business class followed by a partition and 3 rows of Main Cabin extra. With a capacity of 172 seats in total.

The current space in front that occupies 16J and 18Y+, added with the front partition and J/Y partition, it is enough to put in 10-11 rows of Y, so a maximum of 60Y or 66 Y seats instead of 34J+Y+. A net gain of 26 or 32 seats, plus 172 equals 198 or 204 seats.

So I don't think Ryanair passengers have extremely less comfort compare to a legacy carrier when you put its configuration in consideration. It is really about the same.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2330
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:16 am

Pardon me if this link has already been posted. I was curious what the '200' stood for. Here you go...great article about the Ryanair torture chamber.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/ryanairs- ... %20filings
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 21707
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Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:28 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Of course not. But there are only a handful of airlines that would have access to financing with good terms right now. FR and WN being among them. The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.

Is that what you KNOW?? Or? What you wish??


I am allowed my opinion. Legacy airlines wouldn't have permanently retired so many aircraft if they expected traffic to rebound after a vaccine. A simple Google search will yield thousands of articles of how businesses have made significant investments in digital communication this year. Legscies made their money off of $1200 coach tickets between small cities like MOB-ATL-GSP. The lackluster routes of graying consultants. Not to mention the people who insisted on face to face meetings for every little thing are aging off and dying out. The younger generation values more personal time and wants to get work done with quickly.

Getting work quickly is good. But what is the efficiency? My employer and our customers found enough of an efficiency hit, we increased flying. Do you do earned value? It is a way to see if per hour productivity took a hit.

Everyone loves working at home/not traveling. But if I can use travel to steal business from a competitor, get a product to market faster, or find out what customers are looking for in the future (I am in R&D), 90% of that is only face to face and usually after a few glasses.

We had a business travel downturn for years after 2091, but some businesses, including my employer, used business travel to get ahead of the competition, steal their best employees, and improve profits.

There will be flying and this will help FR. The legacy vs. LCC goes off topic fast. What matters is the businesses with best cost control will be the survivors in down industries. FR needs to get back their full discipline.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
queb
Posts: 1029
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 3:10 am

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:37 am

In the 737 Max official website, they say the Max 8 maximum seating is 210 passengers. I always thought it was 200, I guess it's an error because it still 200 in the Airplane Characteristics document but it's weird.

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737ma ... tech-specs

Image
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 311
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:36 pm

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:00 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Of course not. But there are only a handful of airlines that would have access to financing with good terms right now. FR and WN being among them. The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.

Is that what you KNOW?? Or? What you wish??


I am allowed my opinion. Legacy airlines wouldn't have permanently retired so many aircraft if they expected traffic to rebound after a vaccine. A simple Google search will yield thousands of articles of how businesses have made significant investments in digital communication this year. Legscies made their money off of $1200 coach tickets between small cities like MOB-ATL-GSP. The lackluster routes of graying consultants. Not to mention the people who insisted on face to face meetings for every little thing are aging off and dying out. The younger generation values more personal time and wants to get work done with quickly.


Technology and the work expectations of the younger generations were already pushing work in a more virtual direction before COVID. The pandemic only accelerated it. There is a reason that Slack sold for $28 billion yesterday. There will obviously still be in person meeting and work even in the white collar world to an extent, but things were already going in this direction, Microsoft announced Teams back in 2017. This article goes over a lot of the reasons why from an employee expectation and costs perspective “virtual first” hybrid work models are going to be the norm moving forward.

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20 ... ay-we-work
 
User avatar
Antaras
Posts: 1289
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:18 am

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:01 am

queb wrote:
In the 737 Max official website, they say the Max 8 maximum seating is 210 passengers. I always thought it was 200, I guess it's an error because it still 200 in the Airplane Characteristics document but it's weird.

1. Maybe they are just messing up the two terms "exit limit" (210) and "max capacity" (200).
2. Boeing and Ryan "rounded" the figure to make it looks fancier (and more realistic) from 210 to 200 (FR's MAX 200 can't hold up to neither 200 nor 210 pax anyway).
3. Boeing doesn't want to name the type as 737-8-210 MAX
If you disagree with my statement, assume that it was just a joke :duck:
 
Antarius
Posts: 3438
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 1:48 am

lightsaber wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Is that what you KNOW?? Or? What you wish??


I am allowed my opinion. Legacy airlines wouldn't have permanently retired so many aircraft if they expected traffic to rebound after a vaccine. A simple Google search will yield thousands of articles of how businesses have made significant investments in digital communication this year. Legscies made their money off of $1200 coach tickets between small cities like MOB-ATL-GSP. The lackluster routes of graying consultants. Not to mention the people who insisted on face to face meetings for every little thing are aging off and dying out. The younger generation values more personal time and wants to get work done with quickly.

Getting work quickly is good. But what is the efficiency? My employer and our customers found enough of an efficiency hit, we increased flying. Do you do earned value? It is a way to see if per hour productivity took a hit.

Everyone loves working at home/not traveling. But if I can use travel to steal business from a competitor, get a product to market faster, or find out what customers are looking for in the future (I am in R&D), 90% of that is only face to face and usually after a few glasses.

We had a business travel downturn for years after 2091, but some businesses, including my employer, used business travel to get ahead of the competition, steal their best employees, and improve profits.

There will be flying and this will help FR. The legacy vs. LCC goes off topic fast. What matters is the businesses with best cost control will be the survivors in down industries. FR needs to get back their full discipline.

Lightsaber


A big difference between 2001, 2008 and now is the ease of communication. Skype wasn't even around in 2001 and while video calling in 2008 was available, multi party video calls and enterprise systems were quite limited.

I still believe there is a future for business travel, but I don't see as much of a need for recurring consultant travel. Having an army of body farm consultants fly weekly to a client - waste of money.
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:08 am

Antarius wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

I am allowed my opinion. Legacy airlines wouldn't have permanently retired so many aircraft if they expected traffic to rebound after a vaccine. A simple Google search will yield thousands of articles of how businesses have made significant investments in digital communication this year. Legscies made their money off of $1200 coach tickets between small cities like MOB-ATL-GSP. The lackluster routes of graying consultants. Not to mention the people who insisted on face to face meetings for every little thing are aging off and dying out. The younger generation values more personal time and wants to get work done with quickly.

Getting work quickly is good. But what is the efficiency? My employer and our customers found enough of an efficiency hit, we increased flying. Do you do earned value? It is a way to see if per hour productivity took a hit.

Everyone loves working at home/not traveling. But if I can use travel to steal business from a competitor, get a product to market faster, or find out what customers are looking for in the future (I am in R&D), 90% of that is only face to face and usually after a few glasses.

We had a business travel downturn for years after 2091, but some businesses, including my employer, used business travel to get ahead of the competition, steal their best employees, and improve profits.

There will be flying and this will help FR. The legacy vs. LCC goes off topic fast. What matters is the businesses with best cost control will be the survivors in down industries. FR needs to get back their full discipline.

Lightsaber


A big difference between 2001, 2008 and now is the ease of communication. Skype wasn't even around in 2001 and while video calling in 2008 was available, multi party video calls and enterprise systems were quite limited.

I still believe there is a future for business travel, but I don't see as much of a need for recurring consultant travel. Having an army of body farm consultants fly weekly to a client - waste of money.


Agreed. Clients just aren't going to waste so much money in the future. The days of consultants paying whatever the airline wants and billing the client are over. Especially for IT. My cousin is an event planner who handles events all over the country. Her travel started declining back in 2012. It just isn't necessary with online coordination and syncing of every detail.
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 782
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Fri Dec 04, 2020 2:51 am

FR and WN are probably the two highest utilization carriers in the World. Neither run a banked hub model, which drives a lot of on-ground time. Instead they maximize trip count and flying hours of their birds.

For these carriers, the NEO/MAX payoff very quickly. Also common in this model are lots of short stage lengths. These favor the MAX.

So it’s not a surprise you see both of these carriers, and others similar, the most hungry to get these in service.

Fuel is just one aspect of the cost structure. Overall maintenance costs will go down as well. Cockpit screens/changes were for cost reduction. FBW spoilers and other small changes like these simplify maintenance tasks. Biggest chunk are the engines should, after teething sorted out, have best on wing time and lower maintenance cost per flight hour and per cycle compared to NG (which was already the leader). MAX has an advantage here over neo due to fewer stages in the engine, along with its lighter weight airframe and engine package. Neo starts to shine once above 1500sm or so. Between 750-1500 they’re basically a wash. Below that, max is the pretty clear leader, although the neo is certainly capable of

On a fuel basis, I’m not sure the Max saves much if any at 300sm. Minimal fuel savings at 500sm. But quickly increasing as stage lengths increase. Raw SFC gains are offset by additional drag of engine size, forward COG and subsequent induced drag , and engine weight. These new engines don’t burn materially less in decent idle, ground idle, or taxi. Climb fuel is better but partially offset by additional weight. Cruise is where the biggest gains are.
 
CX747
Posts: 6572
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:24 am

lightsaber wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Is that what you KNOW?? Or? What you wish??


I am allowed my opinion. Legacy airlines wouldn't have permanently retired so many aircraft if they expected traffic to rebound after a vaccine. A simple Google search will yield thousands of articles of how businesses have made significant investments in digital communication this year. Legscies made their money off of $1200 coach tickets between small cities like MOB-ATL-GSP. The lackluster routes of graying consultants. Not to mention the people who insisted on face to face meetings for every little thing are aging off and dying out. The younger generation values more personal time and wants to get work done with quickly.

Getting work quickly is good. But what is the efficiency? My employer and our customers found enough of an efficiency hit, we increased flying. Do you do earned value? It is a way to see if per hour productivity took a hit.

Everyone loves working at home/not traveling. But if I can use travel to steal business from a competitor, get a product to market faster, or find out what customers are looking for in the future (I am in R&D), 90% of that is only face to face and usually after a few glasses.

We had a business travel downturn for years after 2091, but some businesses, including my employer, used business travel to get ahead of the competition, steal their best employees, and improve profits.

There will be flying and this will help FR. The legacy vs. LCC goes off topic fast. What matters is the businesses with best cost control will be the survivors in down industries. FR needs to get back their full discipline.

Lightsaber


Couldn't agree with you more. Virtual has its place but the business folks that bolt back to in person stand a chance at stealing market share, profit and top personnel. Virtual has its place but I feel those that stay wrapped in it will find their Teams meetings unattended when COVID is down for the count.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
CX747
Posts: 6572
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:54 am

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:28 am

Galwayman wrote:
New planes + even lower fares + vaccinated citizens = bingo for FR.


Exactly. it's game ,set and match to FR once again. Eazyjet, LH, AF asleep at the while always.[/quote]

Very shrewd maneuvering by MoL and FR. They are really set to jump out of the gate with a very efficient and brand new fleet. No maintenance needs etc and value added to their books. They will also benefit during the sale of the outgoing 737-800s. 737NGs are a "hot" commodity right now for the cargo conversion market. Getting an older 737NG out the door now puts additional money in your pocket over other narrowbody types that are not as in demand.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
max999
Posts: 1266
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:05 am

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 8:55 am

JonesNL wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
B777LRF wrote:

1. LCCs attract their fair share of business travel as well
2. Legacy carriers attract their fair share of leisure travel as well, long-haul in particular is dominated by legacy carriers
3: Your crystal ball seem to be tuned differently than mine
4: Those same companies have also found that you can only accomplish so much on a conference call
5: My crystal ball says business travel will not only full recover but will, in time, grow far beyond 2019 levels

Travel must return. My employer us still profitable, but we have taken a huge efficiency hit under sociak distancing rules. I will flat out state that any company that doesn't track earned value or measure productivity with another tool has lost productivity and just doesn't know it.

There will be less travel for a while. But the companies that benchmark will return to travel and conferences. Some can be online, but you will not make a significant number if new advocates online, that takes person to person contact.

Ryanair will fill up on liesure, but then go into business demand.

Every business that doesn't control costs is in trouble. FR is great at it and thus... generates interesting comments.

Lightsaber


Well, I work at an large bank which stated that business travel will be cut down to an bare minimum seeing proof that 95% of the business is functioning just fine. The profits will be much lower this year, but that is totally unrelated to the ability to have face to face meetings. The CFO contributes it to SMB's going bankrupt everywhere. If I was a betting man I would not bet on business travel returning to old quickly...


The Wall Street Journal reports that business travel could be cut up to 36% permanently. So I agree with those that say LCCs will be the winners...at least in the short and medium term.

The legacies that 1) are reliant on business traffic, 2) are reliant on long haul, and 3) lose money on short haul and domestic have the most to fear in this new environment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid- ... 1606830490
Last edited by max999 on Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5366
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:00 am

SEU wrote:
Out of curiosity, could the 8200 be the best CASM on any new narrowbody?


No, I doubt that will be the case. The 240-seat A321neo will still take the lead there, but with 40ish additional seats that need to be filled to achieve that. I'd expect a similarly outfitted 737-10 to come out ahead of the MAX-8200 as well. FWIW, the A320neo is lighter, has a slightly better fuel burn and also got a capacity boost several years ago (without the need to add an additional weighty door aft of the wing). The A320neo now seats up to 188, and is offered with seating up to 195 :crowded:
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 938
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 9:15 am

lightsaber wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The future is not looking good for legacies that were dependant on business travel. It will never return to pre 2020 levels. Not when companies have now gone all in on digital communication.


1. LCCs attract their fair share of business travel as well
2. Legacy carriers attract their fair share of leisure travel as well, long-haul in particular is dominated by legacy carriers
3: Your crystal ball seem to be tuned differently than mine
4: Those same companies have also found that you can only accomplish so much on a conference call
5: My crystal ball says business travel will not only full recover but will, in time, grow far beyond 2019 levels

Travel must return. My employer us still profitable, but we have taken a huge efficiency hit under sociak distancing rules. I will flat out state that any company that doesn't track earned value or measure productivity with another tool has lost productivity and just doesn't know it.

There will be less travel for a while. But the companies that benchmark will return to travel and conferences. Some can be online, but you will not make a significant number if new advocates online, that takes person to person contact.

Ryanair will fill up on liesure, but then go into business demand.

Every business that doesn't control costs is in trouble. FR is great at it and thus... generates interesting comments.

Lightsaber


I think you leave a big portion out here though. Yes, sales pitches, first contacts, etc. are more efficient in person but audits, consulting, quarterly inter-company meetings, etc. will be reduced significantly. Heck we do virtual risk reviews now, 90% of our consulting visits are gone virtual, and we (different EU entities) meet now once a year instead of 6 times a year (two of them were pure networking events). This travel will never grow back fully. Our new rules seem to be set in stone.

Before pandemic we did our risk audits/analysis this way:
Kick off meeting with client at HQ with C-suite
Meeting every regional branch to do interviews
Presenting the results at the HQ

This could be a lot of meetings depending on how many facilities and regional branches we had to visit.

Now we are down to do the one Kick off meeting for organisations in person (if possible due to restrictions) and after Covid the final meeting will also be reinstated. All the meetings and interviews at the different locations are gone and will also not come back, except if explicitly demanded (and also paid for) by the client.

Also company internal meetings are cut drastically, and to be fair these were mostly unnecessary. And I know from other audit companies, that a lot of travel will not come back.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1840
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 3:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
airzona11 wrote:
The single fleet type no doubt helps Ryanair here.

Looks like the plan is to become even more Boeing oriented through 2026 as A320s held in subsidiaries get squeezed out by more MAXes. I imagine MAXes in that configuration reach CASM points that make A320ceo functionally obsolete, even before you consider the benefits of a single fleet.

Image

Ref: https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 98/photo/1


Great chart, thank you for sharing.
 
planecane
Posts: 1653
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Ryanair orders 75 Boeing 737 MAX 8-200s

Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:05 pm

LH748 wrote:
They must be dirty cheap considering the catastrophic image Boeing has nowadays. Should they actually stay in the air without crashing it would be quite a good move from Ryanair. Personallo not trust the FAA anymore and will only consider flying it once it's certified in Europe.


If reports are accurate, there will be very few flights operates before the EASA approves it so you won't have to wait long.
 
User avatar
Nomadd
Posts: 510
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:26 pm

Re: Ryanair 75 MAX deal to close imminently

Fri Dec 04, 2020 4:18 pm

skipness1E wrote:
They need to raise cash in a hurry, give them some credit...

Now, that was funny

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