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x1234
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Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Thu Dec 03, 2020 7:53 pm

Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA? I remember there was a big US military movement there as its US soil clsoest to Asia. I know AA probably has a JL code-share to GUM and DL does with KE. Only UA is in the market and they only serve Japan and Hawaii. Combined Guam + Northern Marianas Islands have a population fo 223k people. That's less than Hawaii (1.4 million) and Alaska (732k) or Puerto Rico (3.2 million). The only population less than Guam+Northern Marianas is the US Virgin Islands at 107k people. Is there any chance of UA flying GUM-SFO/LAX or is the market too small? I know UA flies the 300+ seat B777-200 legacy on HNL-GUM. I am surprised Hawaiian Airlines flies to Papeete French Polynesia and not Guam/Northern Marianas as its a US territory or is there luxury travel to PPT (from SFO none the less UA has found out, all that tech $$$)?
 
dfw88
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:03 pm

I think you already answered your own question. Guam is small, out of the way, and not particularly financially well-off (were it a state the only state below it in GDP per capita would be Mississippi). It has far more demand to East Asia (Japan mostly, but also South Korea and Taiwan) than to the US mainland and tourists from the west coast mainland have much closer beaches, predominantly in Hawaii and Mexico.

There's some small amount of demand, sure, but UA has the government contracts locked up so the other carriers see little reason to deploy their own aircraft there. Better to send pax to South Korea or Japan and let them connect onto the massive amount of (pre-COVID) capacity from their partner hubs.
 
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STT757
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:07 pm

In the early to mid nineties NWA had a daily nonstop from Honolulu to Guam, DC-10. In the late Eighties Hawaiian had a nonstop Honolulu-Guam, DC-8. But for the most part it's been Continental and the United's market. NWA and DL did have flights to Japan from Guam and Saipan.
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CV990A
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Fri Dec 04, 2020 12:50 am

Let's not forget the short-lived Aloha Pacific flights using DC-10s on the HNL-GUM-TPE route.

http://www.departedflights.com/AQpacific060184.html
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SQ22
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:37 pm

x1234 wrote:
Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA? I remember there was a big US military movement there as its US soil clsoest to Asia. I know AA probably has a JL code-share to GUM and DL does with KE. Only UA is in the market and they only serve Japan and Hawaii. Combined Guam + Northern Marianas Islands have a population fo 223k people. That's less than Hawaii (1.4 million) and Alaska (732k) or Puerto Rico (3.2 million). The only population less than Guam+Northern Marianas is the US Virgin Islands at 107k people. Is there any chance of UA flying GUM-SFO/LAX or is the market too small? I know UA flies the 300+ seat B777-200 legacy on HNL-GUM. I am surprised Hawaiian Airlines flies to Papeete French Polynesia and not Guam/Northern Marianas as its a US territory or is there luxury travel to PPT (from SFO none the less UA has found out, all that tech $$$)?


Please do not forget UA Island Hopper service to HNL serving Micronesia as well as service to MNL.

Guam to Manila, Dec 2, 2020
 
jplatts
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:28 pm

I had previously mentioned that the 737 MAX's successor will probably have enough range to reach GUM nonstop from HNL, and WN adding HNL-GUM nonstop service might be a possibility with a newer generation narrowbody plane that has enough range for HNL-GUM nonstop service.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Sun Dec 06, 2020 4:52 pm

Just to add to the already-outstanding answers provided here, the number one driver of a new route is premium class demand. If it is demonstrated to an airline that enough "connecting passengers" are willing to pay for a non-stop on a route, it will come about.

SAN, for example, pre-COVID, was able to sustain flights to both LHR, FRA, and NRT, without affecting yields on LAX flights. The San Diego area demonstrated enough premium demand on its own, separate from the Los Angeles metropolitan area, to get its own flights.

GUM, on the other hand, is simply too small and too distant for airlines of the United States to work profitably, other than what was there before quarantining. HNL, even for those on the west coast, is 5+ hours away at minimum, and GUM is just too much further away, both in terms of the fuel required AND time spent traveling for the average tourist.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:29 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
GUM, on the other hand, is simply too small and too distant for airlines of the United States to work profitably, other than what was there before quarantining. HNL, even for those on the west coast, is 5+ hours away at minimum, and GUM is just too much further away, both in terms of the fuel required AND time spent traveling for the average tourist.


I think a lot of folks (not you) don’t really understand the geography. Bora Bora is 2,000 miles closer to the US mainland than GUM. If you wanted to take a non-Hawaii Pacific beach vacation, which would you choose?

Or another factoid: GUM is the almost exactly the same distance from HNL as is DFW. The Pacific is huge.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Is the Guam/Northern Marianas market too small for DL/AA/HA?

Tue Dec 08, 2020 5:56 am

Cubsrule wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
GUM, on the other hand, is simply too small and too distant for airlines of the United States to work profitably, other than what was there before quarantining. HNL, even for those on the west coast, is 5+ hours away at minimum, and GUM is just too much further away, both in terms of the fuel required AND time spent traveling for the average tourist.


I think a lot of folks (not you) don’t really understand the geography. Bora Bora is 2,000 miles closer to the US mainland than GUM. If you wanted to take a non-Hawaii Pacific beach vacation, which would you choose?

Or another factoid: GUM is the almost exactly the same distance from HNL as is DFW. The Pacific is huge.


Nicely put.
I just describe Guam as more Asia than "Polynesia" (yes, I know its neither technically). The fact that Guam is further from the US West Coast than Tokyo or Seoul pretty much says says it all from the Aviation and travel perspective.

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