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OA260
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Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 10:33 am

 
Noshow
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 11:05 am

So ILA 22 at Berlin BER is the next european air show/trade fair? Post Brexit, post Corona, post A380, post 747...
 
andz
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 2:41 pm

This is worrying if events are being cancelled so far ahead of time, the Isle of Man TT races starting at the end of May 2021 were cancelled a couple of weeks ago.
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 2:59 pm

andz wrote:
This is worrying if events are being cancelled so far ahead of time, the Isle of Man TT races starting at the end of May 2021 were cancelled a couple of weeks ago.

The realities of slow vaccine production.

Hopefully enough gets out that a few countries can travel bubble and restart.

e.g., total pfizer 2020 50 million units:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1bC9lD

Miderna "building up" to 300 to 400 million doses per year:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lonza-says

Oxford-AstraZeneca, 50 million in 2020, first 20 million US doses in January:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/23/ ... utType=amp

Until there us well over a billion doses out there, we cannot return to normal. Airshows work by having hundreds if airlines send thousands of buyers with thousands of people from vendors, finance companies, and if course OEMs selling. There won't be enough vaccine by summer for normal trade shows, much less have Paris vaccinated enough (recall, the Paris airshow works because the families of attendees are having fun playing in the city).

If you haven't seen hundreds if employees jockeying to get a slot at Paris ir Farnborough, you just cannot understand the dynamics if how the cultural event makes these such successful trade shows The aviation enthusiast side is really to start discussions for next year's sales.

As much as we love aviation, we need to remember that the airshows are funded first and foremost as trade shows where an incredible amount of business starts or is concluded. Since that us unlikely in 2021 to be enough for a business case, wait until Farnborough 2022. :cry2:

Lightsaber
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ethernal
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:11 pm

lightsaber wrote:
andz wrote:
This is worrying if events are being cancelled so far ahead of time, the Isle of Man TT races starting at the end of May 2021 were cancelled a couple of weeks ago.

The realities of slow vaccine production.

Hopefully enough gets out that a few countries can travel bubble and restart.

e.g., total pfizer 2020 50 million units:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medica ... r-BB1bC9lD

Miderna "building up" to 300 to 400 million doses per year:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lonza-says

Oxford-AstraZeneca, 50 million in 2020, first 20 million US doses in January:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/23/ ... utType=amp

Until there us well over a billion doses out there, we cannot return to normal. Airshows work by having hundreds if airlines send thousands of buyers with thousands of people from vendors, finance companies, and if course OEMs selling. There won't be enough vaccine by summer for normal trade shows, much less have Paris vaccinated enough (recall, the Paris airshow works because the families of attendees are having fun playing in the city).

If you haven't seen hundreds if employees jockeying to get a slot at Paris ir Farnborough, you just cannot understand the dynamics if how the cultural event makes these such successful trade shows The aviation enthusiast side is really to start discussions for next year's sales.

As much as we love aviation, we need to remember that the airshows are funded first and foremost as trade shows where an incredible amount of business starts or is concluded. Since that us unlikely in 2021 to be enough for a business case, wait until Farnborough 2022. :cry2:

Lightsaber


It's a shame as June is a reasonable timescale for widespread vaccinations in developed countries. That combined with summer in the Northern Hemisphere will mean that COVID cases should be almost completely controlled. That said, widespread vaccinations will not have taken place in many less wealthy countries (although I am sure that the folks attending the air show would have been part of the lucky few to be vaccinated). Perhaps that is one of the risks trying to be mitigated.

That said, I can understand why an event planner would be hesitant to move forward. Especially since I am sure that new events being signed right now include a specific "no cancellations for COVID" clause.
 
tootallsd
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:14 pm

andz wrote:
This is worrying if events are being cancelled so far ahead of time, the Isle of Man TT races starting at the end of May 2021 were cancelled a couple of weeks ago.


I would not say that these cancellations are being cancelled too early. Both events discussed in this thread require enormous planning work and commitments to suppliers. In some cases, due to national restrictions, may not be able to contractually commit. But once committed there is the financial transaction that can't be undone. For the organizers, most likely working hard to remain as a going concern, that will be money out the door. At best, graciously applied to a future year contract -- but no certainty. Then there are the many attendees that make hotel and air bookings to travel to the event. All those bookings carry the risk of penalties if cancelled. This is just fair and reasonable behavior.

As lightsaber says we continue to see the cascade of cancellations until there is meaningful impact from vaccination. Only time can solve this. I do disagree with lightsaber when he calls it 'slow vaccination progress'. In fact, the speed of initial delivery is stunning and unparalleled. The problem is that the task (global immunization) is huge.
 
Noshow
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:22 pm

It means by summer 21 we will NOT be back to recovery and on the way back to normal. I had hoped for some serious recovery by then.
 
ethernal
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:30 pm

Noshow wrote:
It means by summer 21 we will NOT be back to recovery and on the way back to normal. I had hoped for some serious recovery by then.


For leisure travel, Summer '21 will probably be relatively strong (assuming that the developed world lifts travel restrictions by late Spring - likely but not guaranteed). For business travel, 2021 is already in the gutter. T&E budgets have been set to be bare bones and any conference before Fall '21 is unlikely to happen for the reasons discussed in this thread (long scheduling horizon).
 
ILNFlyer
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 3:39 pm

Not unexpected given the circumstances.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:01 pm

Please stay on topic
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Antarius
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:23 pm

Another factor is that aviation is in a dumpster right now, and orders are few and far between. Spending a lot of capital on a meaningless exercise isn't a prudent decision when both buyers and sellers are in a pickle.

So, combined with COVID and little to no gain from having this show, I suspect canceling was an easy decision.
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lightsaber
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:26 pm

tootallsd wrote:

As lightsaber says we continue to see the cascade of cancellations until there is meaningful impact from vaccination. Only time can solve this. I do disagree with lightsaber when he calls it 'slow vaccination progress'. In fact, the speed of initial delivery is stunning and unparalleled. The problem is that the task (global immunization) is huge.

You are correct that vaccines were never developed faster. This is stunning and unparalleled.

We also live in a society far more risk adverse, probably due to the legal implications, than any before. So we are shut down until enough countries are sufficiently vaccinated. There us simply a rate they can be tested and then manufactured. I worded poorly.

For example, there is no way enough vaccine will be available to put my kids back into school, probably for the year (California is in a silly level of panic, IMHO). I probably cannot start getting vaccinated before February or March and it rakes two doses 30 days apart to be vaccinated and that will be with myself maneuvering to get it ASAP.

By the Paris airshow, perhaps a third of Paris might be vaccinated. But if a few batches of vaccine must be rejected, which is common, then add a few months to any timeline.

The fraction of a population, from what I've read that can be vulnerable must be less than 1/(1+Ro). As this has an Ro if 3, that means until 80% of a population is vaccinated, we are still having issues.

There are 7.65 billion people. Getting to 80% means producing over 6 billion doses; that will take a long time. The first billion doses won't even slow it, except regionally in highly vaccinated areas (US and UK, most likely first due to budget to population).

As noted, big checks had to be written and I doubt Boeing, Airbus, ALC, Udvar-Hazy and others were willing to spend like before. Why would they? There is no chance of a banner sales year. There is no clamoring by a hundred small airlines to buy used or perhaps new Aircraft in the only environment they can economically meet with the dozens of companies they need to to acquire or sell aircraft. Farnborough and the Paris airshows are truly great markets.

I cannot find the link, but one strategy if Udvar-Hazy was to rent out a hotel starting a month before the show. Suites would be subleased to vendors (e.g., seats, galleys) so that airlines could come in to discuss financing, be steered towards new or used aircraft on the order books, with full teams if executives, accountants, and lawyers to make deals (buying and selling) happen. This jyst isn't the environment for it. (Note, not just Udvar-Hazy, I know aircraft tire sales would have a booth at the show, but then off-site hotels to come and be wined and dinned to sell multi-year tire purchase deals, or aircraft valves, or seats, or... you name it, these big airshows are the only one stop shopping to purchase aircraft, or at least sign MOUs, in a month.).

So really bad news on new and used aircraft sales in 2020.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Antarius
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:30 pm

Noshow wrote:
So ILA 22 at Berlin BER is the next european air show/trade fair? Post Brexit, post Corona, post A380, post 747...


And by some bloody miracle, BER is actually open :shock: :rotfl: :relieved:
Militant Centrist
Let's all just use some common sense
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:51 pm

I decided to model when we get this dang virus under control by modeling how many get immunity by exposure or vaccine. Gulp, if I am very optimistic on vaccine production rates, we start to arrest the global spread in December 2021... (Maybe January 2022).

I hope my quick back if the envelope model has a bad assumption...

I assumed:
1. 20% had immunity in September (I read that somewhere).
2. Estimated a peak infection of 2 million cases per day
3. Assumed only 10% of cases recorded on worldometer's excellent statistics
4. Used the prior production rates and high production rates up to 150M doses a month by March


Errr... I get most people have immunity by recovering (known case or not) and only 830M vaccinated by then.

But good news, it shows we can have a normal summer 2022 travel season, within the ability of the economy to support travel, that us.

Note: The model swings by months on some pretty basic assumptions, so take it with a grain of salt.

What matters, I see Farnborough 2022 a sure thing!

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
ethernal
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
tootallsd wrote:

As lightsaber says we continue to see the cascade of cancellations until there is meaningful impact from vaccination. Only time can solve this. I do disagree with lightsaber when he calls it 'slow vaccination progress'. In fact, the speed of initial delivery is stunning and unparalleled. The problem is that the task (global immunization) is huge.

You are correct that vaccines were never developed faster. This is stunning and unparalleled.

We also live in a society far more risk adverse, probably due to the legal implications, than any before. So we are shut down until enough countries are sufficiently vaccinated. There us simply a rate they can be tested and then manufactured. I worded poorly.

For example, there is no way enough vaccine will be available to put my kids back into school, probably for the year (California is in a silly level of panic, IMHO). I probably cannot start getting vaccinated before February or March and it rakes two doses 30 days apart to be vaccinated and that will be with myself maneuvering to get it ASAP.

By the Paris airshow, perhaps a third of Paris might be vaccinated. But if a few batches of vaccine must be rejected, which is common, then add a few months to any timeline.

The fraction of a population, from what I've read that can be vulnerable must be less than 1/(1+Ro). As this has an Ro if 3, that means until 80% of a population is vaccinated, we are still having issues.

There are 7.65 billion people. Getting to 80% means producing over 6 billion doses; that will take a long time. The first billion doses won't even slow it, except regionally in highly vaccinated areas (US and UK, most likely first due to budget to population).


Had the vaccines been only 60-70% effective, I'd agree with you.. because that's not effective enough to stop enough people from dying if spread is endemic. At 90%+ effectiveness, fatality rate really does become "flu like" for the elderly. While obviously we want to eliminate the disease entirely, vaccinating everyone 65+ is likely enough to drive significant normalization of activities given that is where 75%+ of the deaths are - and that is only 15-20% of the population (even in "gray" countries like Italy). The timeline for that to occur is very reasonable in developed countries by late Spring. For the developing world, there will be far more of a delay - but on the flip side, the developing world typically has a much different age pyramid where 65+ makes up only 4-7% of the population to begin with.

In short, for East Asia, Europe, Australia, and North America, things are probably "okay" by June. But... no one wants to bet on that, especially given what you say below:

As noted, big checks had to be written and I doubt Boeing, Airbus, ALC, Udvar-Hazy and others were willing to spend like before. Why would they? There is no chance of a banner sales year. There is no clamoring by a hundred small airlines to buy used or perhaps new Aircraft in the only environment they can economically meet with the dozens of companies they need to to acquire or sell aircraft. Farnborough and the Paris airshows are truly great markets.

I cannot find the link, but one strategy if Udvar-Hazy was to rent out a hotel starting a month before the show. Suites would be subleased to vendors (e.g., seats, galleys) so that airlines could come in to discuss financing, be steered towards new or used aircraft on the order books, with full teams if executives, accountants, and lawyers to make deals (buying and selling) happen. This jyst isn't the environment for it. (Note, not just Udvar-Hazy, I know aircraft tire sales would have a booth at the show, but then off-site hotels to come and be wined and dinned to sell multi-year tire purchase deals, or aircraft valves, or seats, or... you name it, these big airshows are the only one stop shopping to purchase aircraft, or at least sign MOUs, in a month.).

So really bad news on new and used aircraft sales in 2020.


Exactly that. The only thing that would be announced at the Paris airshow would be a few ULCC topping up orders here and there that only slightly help balance the mass cancellations. No major legacy purchases are happening any time soon.

The other side of this is that.. everyone in the airline industry is broke. While comparatively healthy relative to airlines, Airbus and Boeing are in capital preservation mode.. and all the airlines are of course fighting for their lives. Even if there was zero health risk, no one is in a position to pay for a fanciful conference like this.

Even 2022 is likely to be toned down for this reason. While hopefully airlines will be stable by then, rebuilding their balance sheets will take time.
 
Noshow
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:07 pm

So no A220-500 order by AF, no A322neo launch, no C919 stretch, no Swiss fighter order, no MAX 11 announcement, no B-21 flight display and leaflet drop?
Summer 21 must be boring.
 
captainmeeerkat
Posts: 389
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:49 pm

Noshow wrote:
So no A220-500 order by AF, no A322neo launch, no C919 stretch, no Swiss fighter order, no MAX 11 announcement, no B-21 flight display and leaflet drop?
Summer 21 must be boring.


Sorry for the silly comment but your username is just perfect for this thread! :D :D
my luggage is better travelled than me!
 
Noshow
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:16 pm

I have to agree.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:51 pm

Makes you the wonder if dubai and zhuhai shows will proceeds. Also signapore in 2022.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 260
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 10:07 pm

[/quote]

It's a shame as June is a reasonable timescale for widespread vaccinations in developed countries. That combined with summer in the Northern Hemisphere will mean that COVID cases should be almost completely controlled.[/quote]

Actually, I don't think it's a reasonable timescale at all. Yes, and while we here in UK start vaccinations tomorrow there is still no real evidence of it's eventual, or long term, success. Everyone is very hopeful of course, but still not enough as yet to be completely definitive and for major events such as airshows only 6/7 months away it is right that they are not planned to go ahead at this stage. Also, with the promised disribution I don't think there will be a massive differential between wealthy and less wealthy countries.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 260
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 10:09 pm

[/quote]

It's a shame as June is a reasonable timescale for widespread vaccinations in developed countries. That combined with summer in the Northern Hemisphere will mean that COVID cases should be almost completely controlled.[/quote]

Actually, I don't think it's a reasonable timescale at all. Yes, and while we here in UK start vaccinations tomorrow there is still no real evidence of it's eventual, or long term, success. Everyone is very hopeful of course, but still not enough as yet to be completely definitive and for major events such as airshows only 6/7 months away it is right that they are not planned to go ahead at this stage. Also, with the promised disribution I don't think there will be a massive differential between wealthy and less wealthy countries.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5368
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Mon Dec 07, 2020 10:14 pm

lightsaber wrote:
But good news, it shows we can have a normal summer 2022 travel season, within the ability of the economy to support travel, that us.


"Normal". With a little luck, by 2022 we will be deep in a recession. People won't be able to afford to travel.
 
oldJoe
Posts: 422
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Tue Dec 08, 2020 1:42 am

VSMUT wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
But good news, it shows we can have a normal summer 2022 travel season, within the ability of the economy to support travel, that us.


"Normal". With a little luck, by 2022 we will be deep in a recession. People won't be able to afford to travel.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark:
So many people lost their job and I have to ask myself when I can travel again myself ?
This pandemic has more losers than winners for sure at all !
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5274
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:55 am

lightsaber wrote:
I decided to model when we get this dang virus under control by modeling how many get immunity by exposure or vaccine. Gulp, if I am very optimistic on vaccine production rates, we start to arrest the global spread in December 2021... (Maybe January 2022).

I hope my quick back if the envelope model has a bad assumption...

I assumed:
1. 20% had immunity in September (I read that somewhere).
2. Estimated a peak infection of 2 million cases per day
3. Assumed only 10% of cases recorded on worldometer's excellent statistics
4. Used the prior production rates and high production rates up to 150M doses a month by March


Errr... I get most people have immunity by recovering (known case or not) and only 830M vaccinated by then.

But good news, it shows we can have a normal summer 2022 travel season, within the ability of the economy to support travel, that us.

Note: The model swings by months on some pretty basic assumptions, so take it with a grain of salt.

What matters, I see Farnborough 2022 a sure thing!

Lightsaber

I think your missing the part where nursing homes are going to be vaccinated almost immediately. And that is going to plummet the death rate. The restrictions are only about hospital crowding. Not actual spread.

The obvious large even on the clock if you will. Is the Tokyo Olympics.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:49 am

Sun n Fun is in April. I can’t see that one happening, either.
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Paris Air Show 2021 cancelled

Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:32 am

They should move the Paris Air Show to Victorville.

The business is booming there.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."

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