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Devilfish
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:50 pm

Polot wrote:
First with Turkey before the Turkish Government pulled out and now they are trying with Germany.

The company owner's and CEO's names still seem Turkish to me though...? Another aircraft in this segment than the ATR-42 is good for competition, but market demand in 2025 might not sustain two TP players...let alone three. :crowded:
 
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Polot
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:58 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Polot wrote:
First with Turkey before the Turkish Government pulled out and now they are trying with Germany.

The company owner's and CEO's names still seem Turkish to me though...? Another aircraft in this segment than the ATR-42 is good for competition, but market demand in 2025 might not sustain two TP players...let alone three. :crowded:

Sierra Nevada’s CEO is of Turkish descent (unsure if he was born there though). That’s why they went to Turkey first.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:12 pm

Wait, is the tooling still there? That's the only way they can upgrade the platform...
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:26 am

Devilfish wrote:
Flightglobal has a new, rather long article on the D328eco.....

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 82.article


Nice article, thanks for the heads up. However, the article only considers the airliner market, whereas the manufacturer is targeting four more additional markets (into which the legacy Dornier 328 made some inroads) which promise less volume, but are probably less sensitive to pricing.
 
T4thH
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Thu Jan 28, 2021 1:31 am

vfw614 wrote:
Devilfish wrote:
Flightglobal has a new, rather long article on the D328eco.....

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 82.article


Nice article, thanks for the heads up. However, the article only considers the airliner market, whereas the manufacturer is targeting four more additional markets (into which the legacy Dornier 328 made some inroads) which promise less volume, but are probably less sensitive to pricing.

Yes, there is an urgent need for a above 19 PAX and below 50 PAX size turboprop for governmental and military purposes. Planes used there are all getting old and will have to be replaced soon and there is no real competitor globally., the C295 has a different role. And the D328 eco will have a nice size as base for as example marine patrol, sub hunter, small size early airborne warning, SIGINT e.g. versions. I see a market for governmental and military purposes of low several hundred planes. And just remind, the D328 of the US Air Force Special Command are really busy.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:48 pm

Long interview with CEO Dave Jackson with a German online aviation news site - not sure if I am allowed to link, so a summary of his main points:.

- as a result of a programme launch event in December, potential buyers and suppliers have made contact. He mentions suppliers that used to focus on Airbus and Boeing as partners are now interested and willing to do business with smaller OEMs as a result of the downturn in the industry

- some expressions of interest from potential customers, but too early for commitments

- a panel of potential customers has been set up that will give input in the development process

- he defines three markets: replacement of 30-50 turboprops operate by airliners / passenger niche operations (islands, small runways), particularly in Aisa / special misions (coast guard, border patrol, military, medevac etc.). He sees the biggest initial replacement market for Saab 340s, Dash 8-100/200s and Jetstream 41s for which the Dorner 328eco has the best size.

- thinks the Dornier 328 has a competitive edge over the ATR42 because of better avionics (potential for single pilots ops), biofuel, faster speed and higher cruise altitude.

- sees the the 328 as proven concept that was ahead of its time and stresses that it is a newer concept than what the A320NEO is based upon.

- does not see Embraer and Turkish Aerospace as competitors as these target a different market

- first prototpye in 2023 or 2024, sees EIS in 2025 as "absolutely realistic".

- no further stretch beyond 43 seats possible, would require a new aircraft design

- use of "Deutsche Aircraft" instead of "Dornier" to highlight German engineering and quality made in Germany.
Last edited by vfw614 on Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Polot
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:04 pm

vfw614 wrote:
- use of "Deutsche Aeropace" instead of "Dornier" to highlight German engineering and quality made in Germany.

Well that and the fact that they probably don’t have the rights to the Dornier name.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 01, 2021 10:31 pm

Polot wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
- use of "Deutsche Aeropace" instead of "Dornier" to highlight German engineering and quality made in Germany.

Well that and the fact that they probably don’t have the rights to the Dornier name.


Indeed. From what I gather, the "Dornier" name is trademarked to some Airbus subsidiary.
 
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armagnac2010
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:20 pm

Reading the original interview auf Deutsch (in German), I don't believe the avionics is a direct comparison with the ATR 42. The -600 avionics suites is actually quite up to date, and actually ahead of the 328 offering. The ATR system architecture is centralised and easy to update.

But pretending the 328 avionics will allow or even provide the basis for single pilot operation really shows the whole thing is not serious. Single pilot operations on a 43 passengers aircraft will require major developments, both on the aircraft and on the policy sides. Develop the Conops (concept of operations), adapt the design, work with regulators (EASA, FAA, ICAO and you name it), convince pilots, etc. Totally out of reach for a company like Deutsche Aircraft.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:13 pm

It is most likely a coincidence, but I noted, following both Deutsche Aircraft and ATR on Twitter, that a Tweet by Deutsche Aircraft on the eco credentials of the D328eco...

https://twitter.com/Deu_Aircraft/status ... 70948?s=20

...was followed by an ATR tweet praising the ATR as an eco-friendly aircraft.

https://twitter.com/ATRaircraft/status/ ... 92970?s=20

Today, Deutsche Aircraft posted a tweet about serving remote regions with the D328eco...

https://twitter.com/Deu_Aircraft/status ... 63938?s=20

...and just a few minutes ago, ATR posted this:

https://twitter.com/ATRaircraft/status/ ... 23618?s=20
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:24 pm

armagnac2010 wrote:
Reading the original interview auf Deutsch (in German), I don't believe the avionics is a direct comparison with the ATR 42. The -600 avionics suites is actually quite up to date, and actually ahead of the 328 offering.


What avionics suite will the D328eco use?
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:06 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Polot wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
- use of "Deutsche Aeropace" instead of "Dornier" to highlight German engineering and quality made in Germany.

Well that and the fact that they probably don’t have the rights to the Dornier name.


Indeed. From what I gather, the "Dornier" name is trademarked to some Airbus subsidiary.


These guys too:
https://www.lindauerdornier.com/en/
Probably, there is a long-standing "wall", in what business segments, who has rights to "Dornier" name.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:22 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Long interview with CEO Dave Jackson with a German online aviation news site - not sure if I am allowed to link, so a summary of his main points:.

[...]
- he defines three markets: replacement of 30-50 turboprops operate by airliners / passenger niche operations (islands, small runways), particularly in Aisa / special misions (coast guard, border patrol, military, medevac etc.). He sees the biggest initial replacement market for Saab 340s, Dash 8-100/200s and Jetstream 41s for which the Dorner 328eco has the best size.

Not sure what the Do328eco can do that the ATR42 cannot; to be seen.

vfw614 wrote:
- thinks the Dornier 328 has a competitive edge over the ATR42 because of better avionics (potential for single pilots ops), biofuel, faster speed and higher cruise altitude.

Single pilot ops in that aircraft size is a pipe dream right now; if the regulation changes, the Do328eco will not be the only one to benefit from it, increasing competition and reducing competitve edge.
Same for biofuels: it mainly depends on the engines and fuel system, which can be also adapted on competitors (such as ATR42).

vfw614 wrote:
- first prototpye in 2023 or 2024, sees EIS in 2025 as "absolutely realistic".

The current 777X timeline says otherwise: it'll be several years before a prototype is ready and certifiable, not just 2 or 3 years.

vfw614 wrote:
- use of "Deutsche Aircraft" instead of "Dornier" to highlight German engineering and quality made in Germany.

This is a marketing plot that works with the general public, much less with companies. And the recent experiences of VAG, BMW and Mercedes quality would drown that perceived quality in a heartbeat.
 
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armagnac2010
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:28 pm

What avionics suite will the D328eco use?


The baseline 328 features the Honeywell Primus 2000, which is now a bit old. It would make sense to upgrade to a more recent release of the Honeywell suite, like the Epic for instance. If Deutsche Aircraft can afford the upgrade program, both financially and technically.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:52 pm

I did some googling. As per various articles from December 2020, the D328eco will have a new, yet-to-be-identified avionics suite ("the latest"), so at this point it is difficult to make comparisons with the ATR.

As for the single pilots ops aspect, from what I gather, all what they say is that the avionics would be ready for it should this ever become reality from a regulatory perspective. They are not saying that the aircraft will be available for single pilot ops.

Phosphorus wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Indeed. From what I gather, the "Dornier" name is trademarked to some Airbus subsidiary.

These guys too: https://www.lindauerdornier.com/en/
Probably, there is a long-standing "wall", in what business segments, who has rights to "Dornier" name.


I should have been more precise. It is trademarked in the category "aircraft" to an Airbus subsidiary.
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:43 pm

Well Ruag was also using the name Dornier for the 228 NG. Incidentally, the exact status of the 228 NG program is a bit fuzzy (it might illustrate the difficulties associated with re-launching a program). It seems General Atomics is now in charge; the question is whether they intend to keep production going, or need the factories to flood Europe with their Predators.
Last edited by armagnac2010 on Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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armagnac2010
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:50 pm

I did some googling. As per various articles from December 2020, the D328eco will have a new, yet-to-be-identified avionics suite ("the latest"), so at this point it is difficult to make comparisons with the ATR.


Contrary to the business jet market, for airliners avionics is not really a massive sale argument. This possibly explains the need to push forward the single pilot operation possibility.

Upgrading while staying with the same avionics supplier might be possible within the advertised schedule. I doubt they can go for another vendor.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Thu Feb 04, 2021 12:38 am

armagnac2010 wrote:
Well Ruag was also using the name Dornier for the 228 NG. Incidentally, the exact status of the 228 NG program is a bit fuzzy (it might illustrate the difficulties associated with re-launching a program). It seems General Atomics is now in charge; the question is whether they intend to keep production going, or need the factories to flood Europe with their Predators.


As ATR is part-owned by Airbus and Deutsche Aircraft sees the ATR42-600 as its main competitor, it is not difficult to see why the Dornier brand is not licenced by Airbus to Deutsche Aircraft. The Dornier 228NG as a 19seater was nothing to be bothered about.
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:12 pm

Another week, another interview by a Deutsche Aircraft executive - this time the company's VP Operation & Programmes, Nico Neumann (https://www.aero.de/news-38568/164.html). Interesting points:

- currently the programme is in the Preliminary Design Review stage.
- the fact that 70 per cent of the original Dornier 328s are still in use today and that there is a remanufacturing market is seen as testament to the attractiveness of the platform
- certification will be based on an amended Dornier 328 type certificate, hence the relatively optimistic time frame for certification and first deliveries.
- ground for production plant will be broken in 2022
- relatively straightforward manufacturing as tooling and parts of the Dornier 328 are still available and used
- test flights will be partially carried out with a modified baseline model
- overall market is estinated at 4.000 aircraft, Deutsche Aircraft aims to produce more than the original 220 Dornier 328s.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:31 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
I think we need some plane in the Do 328/JET category again. COVID has only made regional flying more popular.


Surely you mean COVID has made regional driving more popular ? Who wants to catch COVID on a plane when it's not necessary ?

Polot wrote:
Missed opportunity to name company Reinrod and partner with Rekkof.


Good one ! :D

CRJockey wrote:
TC957 wrote:
I struggle to see how just a 2.1mtr stretch can accommodate 43 pax when the present 328 is a 31-seater.
43 pax would mean 4 extra rows which will need more than an extra 2.1 mtrs !


Agree. And I struggle with why on earth they wouldn’t aim for 50pax single FA design. And how they think their offering would be anything specially eco.

Well, I believe it when I see one flying.


50PAX would need a new wing, and probably new everything, so that's too ambitious.

vfw614 wrote:
By what logic has there been a market for 34-37 seats and for 48-50 seats for 40 years, but not a reasonable market for 43 seats? Particularly not for a faster turboprop with less runway requirements and at a time where there are not 6-7 OEMs competing in the 30-50 seat market, but we are faced with an ATR monopoly offering a product that covers one end of that market?

As BawliBooch said, with all those naysayers around here we will be stuck with just one turboprop aircraft family for anything between 30 and 100 seats for the next 100 years. Soemone has to offer another regional turboprop at some point in the future unless we want to revert to horse-drawn carriages and steam engines....


Electric airplanes are ideal for short hops.
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Sun Feb 07, 2021 5:17 pm

- overall market is estinated at 4.000 aircraft, Deutsche Aircraft aims to produce more than the original 220 Dornier 328s.


Didn't Embraer, which is contemplating launching a turboprop, quote a 1000 something figure?

With all due respect, Embraer has more credibility than Deutsche Aircraft / German Flugzeug...
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:50 am

The proposed Embraer E3 is a 70-90 seater, so a totally different aircraft category.

Deutsche Aircraft is looking at the 28-50 seat market, apparently based on the assumption that jets like the E135/145 / CRJ will, if at all, be replaced with turboprops as smaller regional jets are no longer offered. Altogether, in this aircraft category more than 5.000 passenger aircraft have been produced from the mid-1980s, most of them before the turn of the century. Based on that, I find a market estimate for 4.000 aircraft pretty optimistic, however.
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:12 pm

What I was not aware of is the J328 is still operating commercial flights in the United States.

Taos Air (Advanced)
Denver Air Connection
And until recently North Country Sky.

Even found this trip report from someone who did the North Country Sky route from northern Michigan;

https://youtu.be/CPQpZJq6jy0

According to the video description, the route was stopped on the 30th of September
 
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Polot
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:53 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
What I was not aware of is the J328 is still operating commercial flights in the United States.

Taos Air (Advanced)
Denver Air Connection
And until recently North Country Sky.

Even found this trip report from someone who did the North Country Sky route from northern Michigan;

https://youtu.be/CPQpZJq6jy0

According to the video description, the route was stopped on the 30th of September

Ultimate Air Shuttle was also operating the 328JET until they suspended ops in September due to COVID. Suppose to start up again this Spring we will see what happens.
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:28 pm

Electric airplanes are ideal for short hops.


Or are short hops ideal for electric airplanes?
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:30 pm

meh130 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
I struggle to see how just a 2.1mtr stretch can accommodate 43 pax when the present 328 is a 31-seater.
43 pax would mean 4 extra rows which will need more than an extra 2.1 mtrs !


My guess is no galley and probably no lav, and very tight seat pitch (28") with very thin profile seats. Think very short run routes in Europe.

More likely config would be 37-38 seats.

They would most likely be able to eliminate the galley. However I do not think eliminating the lav would be a good option. Dornier could build aircraft without the lav but include the necessary items under the cabin floor so it would not be a major deal to instal a lav at a later day. Reselling an aircraft without a lav might not be a real option. :old:
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:36 pm

Polot wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
What I was not aware of is the J328 is still operating commercial flights in the United States.

Taos Air (Advanced)
Denver Air Connection
And until recently North Country Sky.

Even found this trip report from someone who did the North Country Sky route from northern Michigan;

https://youtu.be/CPQpZJq6jy0

According to the video description, the route was stopped on the 30th of September

Ultimate Air Shuttle was also operating the 328JET until they suspended ops in September due to COVID. Suppose to start up again this Spring we will see what happens.


Ultimate Air Shuttle was the one operating the flights for North Country Sky, that will not be returning in Michigan. The EAS contract was given to a different airline.
 
FGITD
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:12 pm

armagnac2010 wrote:
- overall market is estinated at 4.000 aircraft, Deutsche Aircraft aims to produce more than the original 220 Dornier 328s.


Didn't Embraer, which is contemplating launching a turboprop, quote a 1000 something figure?

With all due respect, Embraer has more credibility than Deutsche Aircraft / German Flugzeug...


I find that a lot of this reads very optimistically. This aircraft will fill a market that it turns out, is in super high demand but no one else has noticed. And it will be modern...but based extensively on a 30 year old type. Also it can be built quickly and EIS in just a few years!...but none of the facilities to build it exist yet.

I flew on the 328jet more than a few times. Fun little airplane, and I’d like to see more of them. I do think they have a good plan, but the timelines and ambition just don’t match up with reality
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:31 pm

Ty134A wrote:
Electric airplanes are ideal for short hops.


Or are short hops ideal for electric airplanes?

Electric will have, eventually, once the bugs are worked out, a low per cycle "fuel" and maintenance costs despite the huge weight of the batteries. Because of the battery weight, range will be incredibly limited. Changing out batteries will damage them... But out to 300nm I expect electric Aircraft to take over most pax flights.

Lightsaber
 
oldJoe
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:56 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Ty134A wrote:
Electric airplanes are ideal for short hops.


Or are short hops ideal for electric airplanes?

Electric will have, eventually, once the bugs are worked out, a low per cycle "fuel" and maintenance costs despite the huge weight of the batteries. Because of the battery weight, range will be incredibly limited. Changing out batteries will damage them... But out to 300nm I expect electric Aircraft to take over most pax flights.

Lightsaber


Yes it is the future, but we must not forget which emissions are generated during the production of batteries. If you take into account that, for example, with e-cars the tie only occurs after 100,000 km, provided that there is no defective battery, it seems to me in the aviation industry to be more of an absolute future music to be green.
If something goes wrong in an electric car, it is not the same as in an airplane. The only hope then is that the bird is a very good glider
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:41 am

What is interesting is that Deutsche Aircraft has hired two former Dornier employees who have worked and risen through the ranks at Airbus since the demise of Dornier. Both - CTO Martin Nüsseler and Director of Programmes Peter Spyrka - most recently worked on alternative / hybrid electric propulsion systems at Airbus. And the "Head of Propulsion" Jean-Damien Mazeau is an Airbus alumn as well who most recently worked on the A32Xneo programme. Others such as the important Director Supply Chain and the Program Manager are also ex Airbus. So I guess if the programme fails it will not be for a lack of talent at leadership level.
 
Noshow
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:48 am

It seems to be two programs: The regional aircraft or it's special mission variant and that research platform for new engine technologies. The latter being important to get political support and financial research funding. If they built a new final assembly at Leipzig it sounds like some expensive venture.

I certainly like modern turboprops but only something simple like ATRs seems to sell well enough.
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 5:36 am

drdisque wrote:
UA owns one EAS contract: IAD-PQI (previously EWR-PQI, may return to EWR post-COVID). They fly it with a Commutair E-145.

Every other EAS city flown as a UAX branded flight the contract is held by Skywest. So you're suggesting Skywest would be interested in replacing their paid off fully depreciated CRJ-200's that are operating these flights (keep in mind that they have a huge stockpile of CRJ-100/200 parts and frames since they basically inherited the entire Comair and ASA fleets in addition to the frames delivered to OO directly) with new-build unproven 43 seat props? Skywest gets these contracts on a significant basis on the fact that they're bringing in jet service.

Eventually, they will have to be replaced.
Fact of life, Turbo’s are more efficient on short runs than jets. The promise of the 328 and its speed was that it could stretch that window from 300-350 miles, to 500-600 miles. The let down wasn’t performance, it easily achieved that, but the lack of support and spares when Dornier went defunct.

The stretch doesn’t’t just allow for more pax, but more fuel, as well. In normal times, flights are restricted to 250 kts from Pittsburgh eastbound on most days anyway, so it can definitely be a winner there.

Cessna’s new SkyCourier has the potential to reinvigorate the short-haul markets, the gap is definitely in the 30-50 seat group. Right-size for small cities, and would allow for some hub overflying, at a reasonable cost. Also, in the US, it can be operated at 30 seats, which puts it into another set of rules that operators like JSX, Countour, and others already take advantage of.
 
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 4:40 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
What I was not aware of is the J328 is still operating commercial flights in the United States.

Taos Air (Advanced)
Denver Air Connection
And until recently North Country Sky.


Have passed through APA (Centenntial, the south side of Denver) a few times recently and have seen the Denver Air Connection 328Js there. Was also mildly surprised to see a Taos Air 328J there once. The last time through, we also noticed a 328Prop; IIRC, it was heading to COS. I'm guessing that it belongs to Northrup Grumman? Maybe Lockeed Martin? I'd appreciate any insights or info on those planes.
 
drdisque
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:16 pm

I'm guessing Key Lime/Denver Air Connection does the maintenance on Advanced's 328J.
 
iceberg210
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:44 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:

Cessna’s new SkyCourier has the potential to reinvigorate the short-haul markets, the gap is definitely in the 30-50 seat group. Right-size for small cities, and would allow for some hub overflying, at a reasonable cost. Also, in the US, it can be operated at 30 seats, which puts it into another set of rules that operators like JSX, Countour, and others already take advantage of.

The problem I think all of the under 70 seat planes have is three fold.

1. Without a major decrease in operating cost it just doesn't pencil. The skycourier works great for exactly what it's designed to do but it doesn't bring any significant fuel or personnel cost improvements over current options. Folks aren't flying 1900's or 328's today, so flying skycouriers or 328eco's will only happen with a SIGNIFICANT decrease in cost. The 328 is trying to deliver this with new engines and possible 1 pilot operations. If they get that this hurdle will be over come (and granted the skycourier might be able to do the same with the Catalyst engine or 1 pilot operations albeit how feasible those are I don't know). The Embreaer Stout if offered in civy clothes will actually have a possible leg up here in that it's attempting (who knows if it'll work) via the electric cruise to substantially change the operational cost equation.

2. You have to somehow cover the capital costs both of production and for launch of aircraft. We know these won't be big volume sellers so either you have to find another market to make the assembly line spin between civil orders, or you have to dominate the small market. ATR does this for instance, they can keep the line moving with 72's to make the 42 pencil. Cessna has FedEx to help them on the skycourier, the 328 is looking for special ops orders along with not being a clean sheet so should in theory be cheaper, and the STOUT from Embraer is hoping to cover those costs through Brazilian Air Force orders.If I had to bet money I would actually bet on the Skycourier and STOUT because they have already fixed this issue to the extent they can (they might be still too expensive for the passenger market but they at least have a better chance of lowering those costs as they've locked up the market to subsidize the passenger launch and assembly costs).

3. This is I think the toughest and the reason why we still may not see significant uptake of these small planes in the US regardless of point one and two. The US market partially due to the regulation structure, and also the dominance of a few major airlines has signifant barriers to entry for a small player on such thin routes. Now you could solve some of this with changes to pilot regulations, FA regulations, or even mandating ease of interlining between airlines. The problem is you've either got to convince folks like Skywest, Delta, Alaska, whoever to add small planes to their arsenal which seems unlikely due to staffing constraints and other barriers, or a new player would need to emerge with that as their business plan. The small carrier though will be handicapped to some extent because even though I'd love to fly to Bozeman from Boise, there's a lot of folks who would instead flying through Portland or SLC if it means they get to amass miles on Delta or Alaska.

Having said all that I really hope the 328 works out for Dornier I've always wondered if they had gotten the 328TP, 328J, 428TP and 428J off the ground if they'd have done better, there was a whole generation of stretches of 30 seater aircraft in that era that besides for the Saab2000, never got off the ground.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:00 pm

Having said all that I really hope the 328 works out for Dornier I've always wondered if they had gotten the 328TP, 328J, 428TP and 428J off the ground if they'd have done better, there was a whole generation of stretches of 30 seater aircraft in that era that besides for the Saab2000, never got off the ground.


Saab 340 -> Saab 2000
DHC8-100 -> DHC8-300
EMB120 -> ERJ145

What did not work out were the Dornier 428 and the Shorts 450.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:17 pm

iceberg210 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:

Cessna’s new SkyCourier has the potential to reinvigorate the short-haul markets, the gap is definitely in the 30-50 seat group. Right-size for small cities, and would allow for some hub overflying, at a reasonable cost. Also, in the US, it can be operated at 30 seats, which puts it into another set of rules that operators like JSX, Countour, and others already take advantage of.

The problem I think all of the under 70 seat planes have is three fold.

1. Without a major decrease in operating cost it just doesn't pencil. The skycourier works great for exactly what it's designed to do but it doesn't bring any significant fuel or personnel cost improvements over current options. Folks aren't flying 1900's or 328's today, so flying skycouriers or 328eco's will only happen with a SIGNIFICANT decrease in cost. The 328 is trying to deliver this with new engines and possible 1 pilot operations. If they get that this hurdle will be over come (and granted the skycourier might be able to do the same with the Catalyst engine or 1 pilot operations albeit how feasible those are I don't know). The Embreaer Stout if offered in civy clothes will actually have a possible leg up here in that it's attempting (who knows if it'll work) via the electric cruise to substantially change the operational cost equation.

2. You have to somehow cover the capital costs both of production and for launch of aircraft. We know these won't be big volume sellers so either you have to find another market to make the assembly line spin between civil orders, or you have to dominate the small market. ATR does this for instance, they can keep the line moving with 72's to make the 42 pencil. Cessna has FedEx to help them on the skycourier, the 328 is looking for special ops orders along with not being a clean sheet so should in theory be cheaper, and the STOUT from Embraer is hoping to cover those costs through Brazilian Air Force orders.If I had to bet money I would actually bet on the Skycourier and STOUT because they have already fixed this issue to the extent they can (they might be still too expensive for the passenger market but they at least have a better chance of lowering those costs as they've locked up the market to subsidize the passenger launch and assembly costs).

3. This is I think the toughest and the reason why we still may not see significant uptake of these small planes in the US regardless of point one and two. The US market partially due to the regulation structure, and also the dominance of a few major airlines has signifant barriers to entry for a small player on such thin routes. Now you could solve some of this with changes to pilot regulations, FA regulations, or even mandating ease of interlining between airlines. The problem is you've either got to convince folks like Skywest, Delta, Alaska, whoever to add small planes to their arsenal which seems unlikely due to staffing constraints and other barriers, or a new player would need to emerge with that as their business plan. The small carrier though will be handicapped to some extent because even though I'd love to fly to Bozeman from Boise, there's a lot of folks who would instead flying through Portland or SLC if it means they get to amass miles on Delta or Alaska.

Having said all that I really hope the 328 works out for Dornier I've always wondered if they had gotten the 328TP, 328J, 428TP and 428J off the ground if they'd have done better, there was a whole generation of stretches of 30 seater aircraft in that era that besides for the Saab2000, never got off the ground.

The significance of the SkyCourier isn’t that in do do pax or containers, it is that it can do pax AND containers. For the same operator, on the same day.
Four to eight daytime pax segments, plus two cargo segments at night enhances the revenue possibilities exponentially, even despite the cost of US regulation.

The increased utilization possibilities are the selling point in the US, but more importantly, overseas, where
 
FlyingElvii
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Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:26 pm

iceberg210 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:

Cessna’s new SkyCourier has the potential to reinvigorate the short-haul markets, the gap is definitely in the 30-50 seat group. Right-size for small cities, and would allow for some hub overflying, at a reasonable cost. Also, in the US, it can be operated at 30 seats, which puts it into another set of rules that operators like JSX, Countour, and others already take advantage of.

The problem I think all of the under 70 seat planes have is three fold.

1. Without a major decrease in operating cost it just doesn't pencil. The skycourier works great for exactly what it's designed to do but it doesn't bring any significant fuel or personnel cost improvements over current options. Folks aren't flying 1900's or 328's today, so flying skycouriers or 328eco's will only happen with a SIGNIFICANT decrease in cost. The 328 is trying to deliver this with new engines and possible 1 pilot operations. If they get that this hurdle will be over come (and granted the skycourier might be able to do the same with the Catalyst engine or 1 pilot operations albeit how feasible those are I don't know). The Embreaer Stout if offered in civy clothes will actually have a possible leg up here in that it's attempting (who knows if it'll work) via the electric cruise to substantially change the operational cost equation.

2. You have to somehow cover the capital costs both of production and for launch of aircraft. We know these won't be big volume sellers so either you have to find another market to make the assembly line spin between civil orders, or you have to dominate the small market. ATR does this for instance, they can keep the line moving with 72's to make the 42 pencil. Cessna has FedEx to help them on the skycourier, the 328 is looking for special ops orders along with not being a clean sheet so should in theory be cheaper, and the STOUT from Embraer is hoping to cover those costs through Brazilian Air Force orders.If I had to bet money I would actually bet on the Skycourier and STOUT because they have already fixed this issue to the extent they can (they might be still too expensive for the passenger market but they at least have a better chance of lowering those costs as they've locked up the market to subsidize the passenger launch and assembly costs).

3. This is I think the toughest and the reason why we still may not see significant uptake of these small planes in the US regardless of point one and two. The US market partially due to the regulation structure, and also the dominance of a few major airlines has signifant barriers to entry for a small player on such thin routes. Now you could solve some of this with changes to pilot regulations, FA regulations, or even mandating ease of interlining between airlines. The problem is you've either got to convince folks like Skywest, Delta, Alaska, whoever to add small planes to their arsenal which seems unlikely due to staffing constraints and other barriers, or a new player would need to emerge with that as their business plan. The small carrier though will be handicapped to some extent because even though I'd love to fly to Bozeman from Boise, there's a lot of folks who would instead flying through Portland or SLC if it means they get to amass miles on Delta or Alaska.

Having said all that I really hope the 328 works out for Dornier I've always wondered if they had gotten the 328TP, 328J, 428TP and 428J off the ground if they'd have done better, there was a whole generation of stretches of 30 seater aircraft in that era that besides for the Saab2000, never got off the ground.

The target isn’t BZN-BOI, it is Marion/MWA-ORD, or CVG-CLE. Then a quick change to cargo for CAK-SDF or such, then rinse and repeat in the morning.

For instance, look at three turns perhaps MKE-GRR or LAN, then a cargo haul to Rhinelander or Iron Mountain on the overnight. Now remodel your concept of 15-30% higher overall revenue per aircraft. It begins to make a significant difference, especially in places like Alaska, or South America.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:26 pm

iceberg210 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:

Cessna’s new SkyCourier has the potential to reinvigorate the short-haul markets, the gap is definitely in the 30-50 seat group. Right-size for small cities, and would allow for some hub overflying, at a reasonable cost. Also, in the US, it can be operated at 30 seats, which puts it into another set of rules that operators like JSX, Countour, and others already take advantage of.

The problem I think all of the under 70 seat planes have is three fold.

1. Without a major decrease in operating cost it just doesn't pencil. The skycourier works great for exactly what it's designed to do but it doesn't bring any significant fuel or personnel cost improvements over current options. Folks aren't flying 1900's or 328's today, so flying skycouriers or 328eco's will only happen with a SIGNIFICANT decrease in cost. The 328 is trying to deliver this with new engines and possible 1 pilot operations. If they get that this hurdle will be over come (and granted the skycourier might be able to do the same with the Catalyst engine or 1 pilot operations albeit how feasible those are I don't know). The Embreaer Stout if offered in civy clothes will actually have a possible leg up here in that it's attempting (who knows if it'll work) via the electric cruise to substantially change the operational cost equation.

2. You have to somehow cover the capital costs both of production and for launch of aircraft. We know these won't be big volume sellers so either you have to find another market to make the assembly line spin between civil orders, or you have to dominate the small market. ATR does this for instance, they can keep the line moving with 72's to make the 42 pencil. Cessna has FedEx to help them on the skycourier, the 328 is looking for special ops orders along with not being a clean sheet so should in theory be cheaper, and the STOUT from Embraer is hoping to cover those costs through Brazilian Air Force orders.If I had to bet money I would actually bet on the Skycourier and STOUT because they have already fixed this issue to the extent they can (they might be still too expensive for the passenger market but they at least have a better chance of lowering those costs as they've locked up the market to subsidize the passenger launch and assembly costs).

3. This is I think the toughest and the reason why we still may not see significant uptake of these small planes in the US regardless of point one and two. The US market partially due to the regulation structure, and also the dominance of a few major airlines has signifant barriers to entry for a small player on such thin routes. Now you could solve some of this with changes to pilot regulations, FA regulations, or even mandating ease of interlining between airlines. The problem is you've either got to convince folks like Skywest, Delta, Alaska, whoever to add small planes to their arsenal which seems unlikely due to staffing constraints and other barriers, or a new player would need to emerge with that as their business plan. The small carrier though will be handicapped to some extent because even though I'd love to fly to Bozeman from Boise, there's a lot of folks who would instead flying through Portland or SLC if it means they get to amass miles on Delta or Alaska.

Having said all that I really hope the 328 works out for Dornier I've always wondered if they had gotten the 328TP, 328J, 428TP and 428J off the ground if they'd have done better, there was a whole generation of stretches of 30 seater aircraft in that era that besides for the Saab2000, never got off the ground.

The significance of the SkyCourier isn’t that in do do pax or containers, it is that it can do pax AND containers. For the same operator, on the same day.
Four to eight daytime pax segments, plus two cargo segments at night enhances the revenue possibilities exponentially, even despite the cost of US regulation.

The increased utilization possibilities are the selling point in the US, but more importantly, overseas, where
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:31 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
What I was not aware of is the J328 is still operating commercial flights in the United States.

Taos Air (Advanced)
Denver Air Connection
And until recently North Country Sky.


Have passed through APA (Centenntial, the south side of Denver) a few times recently and have seen the Denver Air Connection 328Js there. Was also mildly surprised to see a Taos Air 328J there once. The last time through, we also noticed a 328Prop; IIRC, it was heading to COS. I'm guessing that it belongs to Northrup Grumman? Maybe Lockeed Martin? I'd appreciate any insights or info on those planes.


The 328 prop is a Special Ops mission plane (C146 Wolfhound) that spends a bit of time flying around at medium altitudes in circles with a sensor pack recently. Should be N645HM

There's also a Twotter out of APA (N365AR) with a sensor pack that spends hours on end orbiting COS too. No idea why.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:41 am

c933103 wrote:
Will it able to.compete against ATR42?


As the older model had greater range & speed than the ATR42 & the new 1 still does & has higher cruise altitude. I do't see why not.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:46 am

vfw614 wrote:
The manufacturer sees a large potential outside the airliner market, e.g. for ambulance, military or surveillance aircraft (where the Dornier 328ceo has carved out a niche as well). As for the airliner market, there will be nothing on offer in the 30-50 seat segment other than the ATR42-600 when it comes to replacing hundreds of DHC8-100/200, Saab 340, Embraer 120/135/140 etc.

PS: Worth noting that in 2019 an EIS of 2023 was promised. Now 2025 is mentioned.


Also if they keep the older model as well there could be 2 model to cover those needs as well. ATR is too big for 30-37 seat market. There are a lot of those DHC & EMMB120's that are nearing the end. UA had a lot of them on markets that need service in the US.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Sun Mar 07, 2021 4:59 am

ScottB wrote:
BawliBooch wrote:
if all aircraft manufacturers went by this logic, we might not have seen this competitive market that we have today. If Airbus had sat back and thought, oh the 150 seat market is crowded with McD, Boeing and BAC slugging it out, so we should stay away! But they did not! They did launch the A320 which went on to beat the pants off the 737 in the next 35 years. Same way, would Embraer launch the E135/145 and later the E170/190 if they followed the same logic?


BAC was already an also-ran in the 150-seat space by the time the A320 was launched. From the brisk sales of the 737 and MD-80, it was obvious the market segment was large and growing. The 30-to-40-seat turboprop market segment is not large, and it's not likely to grow. That's not to say that there is ZERO demand, but there's probably not enough for two profitable players.

The E145 (like the CRJ) was an attempt to address a new market segment, not an existing segment for which it is already known that demand is weak. And it was fairly clear that customers were expressing interest. The same can be said of the E170/190 project. We can even see the converse of this in the nonexistent order book for the E175-E2 -- despite the obvious gains in efficiency from new engines, the U.S. customers which had ordered hundreds of E175s will not order the E2 due to their pilot scope clauses.


If they kept the E175-E2 weight down to meet the Scope clause the US airlines would be replacing the E175 with the E2's. Same issue with the Mitsubishi Aircraft SpaceJet that came in over scope weights. As such the airlines are ordering more 175's.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:58 pm

rbavfan wrote:
If they kept the E175-E2 weight down to meet the Scope clause the US airlines would be replacing the E175 with the E2's. Same issue with the Mitsubishi Aircraft SpaceJet that came in over scope weights. As such the airlines are ordering more 175's.

Are you "fat shaming" the E175-E2? :biggrin:

It's not just a matter of 'keeping weight down'. If you want to improve engine efficiency, the engine gets heavier, a lot heavier. Higher efficiency means higher heat and higher pressure, which means heavier components to retain durability. If a turbine or compressor blade lets go it will have higher energy too, so you need a heavier case. There's really no way around it. Then the heavier engine means heavier pylons, heavier wings, heavier landing gear, etc.

So, you add the heavier engines, but now you have to make a smaller plane to drop the weight to meet the scope weight clause, and now you lose passenger capacity so now the plane loses revenue potential. The business case no longer closes.

If there was a realistic way to meet scope with equal payload and higher efficiency I think it would have been done already. Given we still see E175 selling, I think the answer is clear, there really isn't. Mitsu was flailing about, desperately trying to save a drowning program. I doubted they would have been able to deliver a scope compliant product, and now we know they won't.
 
iceberg210
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:31 pm

Revelation wrote:

If there was a realistic way to meet scope with equal payload and higher efficiency I think it would have been done already. Given we still see E175 selling, I think the answer is clear, there really isn't. Mitsu was flailing about, desperately trying to save a drowning program. I doubted they would have been able to deliver a scope compliant product, and now we know they won't.


I think there's a big lesson to Dornier here, if they want the civilian market they'll have to force their way into the market. EMB did it with the 190 and Jetblue, etc. If I were Dornier with the government etc backing behind me I'd go on a find a 30-50 plane order somewhere. So go to REX, Silver (I know they've ordered ATR's but still a good try), Logan, Alaska Airlines etc etc and just basically give the farm away if that's what it took to get it. I always thought both Mitsu and EMB that was the trick for them to breaking scope, go into someone like Alaska and make them a deal they can't refuse on replacing Horizon's entire fleet with 175E2's and 73G's with 195E2s. At some point you end up with a 'do you want the line open or not?' and in that case there's really no offer you shouldn't refuse.

If you're the 328eco you find the first 100 orders or so and are willing to do whatever it does to get there.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:01 am

According to an interview with German-language Aerotelegraph, German Airways (the former WDL) is in talks not only with ATR, but also with Deutsche Aircraft about adding a turboprop subfleet of 5-7 aircraft as the ACMI-specialist envisages a renaissance of turborpop operations in the post-pandemic era.

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/interview ... zen-wuerde
 
Noshow
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:10 am

Short flights and domestic flights are for some reason on the political "kill list" in several European states. At the same time the same governments fund research for electric planes and keep products like this going. It doesn't add up from my point of view.
 
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vfw614
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Thu May 06, 2021 8:44 pm

First flight pushed back to 2023/4. EIS still planned for 2025.

Article about the project in ERA magazine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzBLIqMW8AQ ... name=large

Deutsche Aircraft have also published an analysis that turboprop aircraft have been the most resilient aircraft category in the ongoing pandemic when it comes to aircraft in sevice and sectors flown: https://www.deutscheaircraft.com/news/t ... g-covid-19
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Relaunch of the Dornier 328

Thu May 06, 2021 9:13 pm

vfw614 wrote:
First flight pushed back to 2023/4. EIS still planned for 2025.

Article about the project in ERA magazine: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EzBLIqMW8AQ ... name=large

Deutsche Aircraft have also published an analysis that turboprop aircraft have been the most resilient aircraft category in the ongoing pandemic when it comes to aircraft in sevice and sectors flown: https://www.deutscheaircraft.com/news/t ... g-covid-19

So, they have 2/3 years to find Tier-1 OEMs, have them design & certify new Products, or ask the old OEMs to restart production that was stopped years ago and potentially update and recertify their products due to parts and/or process obsolescence? Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.

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