AUS is a mess in every imaginable way. I just can't see AUS growing that much with DFW and IAD so close, relatively speaking. Then again, DFW is horrendous, but it keeps growing for some stupid reason, so who knows...
BNA probably has the brightest outlook. Growing market not close to any major hub. I honestly expect Nashville to outpace Austin in grown by 10 fold in 10 years.
Lol, you obviously have something against Texas. What you said is not even remotely accurate. AUS has the brightest outlook of the three airports mentioned here hands down. It’s a huge catchment area and growing twice as fast as Nashville and Raleigh/Durham. Not to mention being the capitol of the tenth largest economy in the world.
BNA has a bright future no doubt, but even if it becomes WN’s SE megastation, I doubt it will receive as much international long haul service as AUS will.
The subject of Texas and/or its likeability is not the subject of this forum, so that's irrelevant.
I'm saying AUS has a geography problem sandwiched between IAD and DFW. Look at SAT. San Antonio is the 3rd fastest-growing metro in the U.S. and the 2nd largest city in Texas behind Houston (visitsanantonio.com). However, SAT has not grown as it should. Why? Because IAD is so close. AUS will find itself in a similar situation.
Oh and for the record, I Texas is a dump and I personally don't like it, but again thats irrelevant.
This take is mind-numbingly stupid and also factually inaccurate. The Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA is the third fastest growing MSA in the nation by percentage, and the top two (The Villages and Myrtle Beach) are 150K and 500K vs 2.2 million in Austin. Austin is the fastest growing MSA (30%) in the top 100 by a wide margin (Raleigh-Cary is the next closest at 23%). (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html
You lack any grasp on the market dynamics in the state. Ignoring your blatant contradiction about San Antonio, even if your data is wrong, San Antonio is extremely dependent on the US Military. With several bases in the city, a good portion of the city's economy is derived from that. Barring another Cold War or World War 3, it simply won't grow overwhelmingly fast, and will also see more transients.
In stark contrast, Austin is a young, vibrant, dynamic economy with local and state government, a booming tech sector, a Tier 1 research university, a growing convention focus, and a multitude of independent leisure travel streams. Your dislike of Texas notwithstanding, this is just the reality. Austin has outpaced Houston and Dallas in growth for two decades.
You also seem to lack a basic understanding of how big Texas is. Austin is 200 miles away from Dallas and 160 from Houston. You'd never say that growth in Tampa would prevent growth in Orlando (85 miles), growth in Los Angeles would prevent growth in San Diego (120 miles) or that growth in New York would prevent growth in Boston (215 miles). Because they're separate cities with separate market dynamics. Geography alone doesn't dictate growth or lack thereof.
Time to stop hiding behind your ignorance and educate yourself.
As for the topic, anyone making guesses about what will or won't happen post-COVID is making a lot of assumptions. All three cities were positioned well and poised for continued growth. Fundamentally, I expect that to continue over the medium- to long-term, but there's a lot of guesswork now about when that will be.
I've likened Nashville's path to Austin's, only about 5 years behind. Growing, stable city with global demand from a business and leisure standpoint. I think it'd be reasonable to expect a second TATL carrier in BNA sometime soon. For many, many years the Texas Hill Country has been a popular tourist destination with Germans, and that along with the strength of Star Alliance via United contributed to LH's decision to start AUS after giving it a test run with Condor. Clearly bookings were good enough, and not so leisure-centered, to justify the switch to LH. Not sure which carrier would make the most sense for BNA, but my gut says Skyteam.
I think it's still a matter of when, not if, Austin gets TPAC service. Although TYO seems a logical gateway, I agree with others that SEL seems more likely owing to the business travel to Korea vis-a-vis Japan ex AUS. Both NRT and ICN can provide comparable onward connections, but I think the scales are tipped in favor of ICN just because of Samsung. PVG is an interesting thought, but I'll stick with my ICN prediction sometime in the next 3-5 years (I would've said 12-18 months before COVID).
Frankly, unless you are from Austin or have spent considerable time here over a long period of time, it's really difficult to grasp what's happening in this city. Austin is overshadowed in size by the DFW Metroplex and Houston metro area, but as a market it's very much a maturing, stable city. And there's no reason to expect anything other than continued growth at a rapid, predictable rate.
From before the time BA announced AUS, many have argued Austin's proximity to the DFW and IAH fortress hubs would limit its possibility for long-haul travel. BA's resounding success, and the entry of LH and KL's planned entry continue to show that line of thinking is outdated and reflective of a world that existed before the 787, which really pioneered profitable long, thin routes. Increasingly, the viability of secondary cities like AUS, BNA, and RDU has expanded the network possibilities, particularly for global alliances. As recently as 15 years ago, someone trying to travel between two secondary cities like Austin and Bangalore would have had possibly a 4 leg journey with domestic connections on each end. The amount of cities connected now by just a single connection has ushered in a new era of network strategy by the global air carriers. Fortress hubs won't go anywhere, particularly in the US due to their ability to connect smaller domestic locations to others and points international.
I simply don't know enough about RDU on a micro level to speak much about it other than to say the Research Triangle will continue to be an attractive spoke in any global route network. How and where that manifests itself I'm not sure, but I'd bet on its connectivity increasing over the next decade.