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steveAUS
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:05 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Wacko55 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

The problem is that AUS-Japan is a relatively weaker market. In the 2011 Brookings data, which are way out of date absolutely but probably not far off relatively, TYO accounted for only about 14 percent of AUS' East Asia demand, or 2.5 times less than SEL did and about the same as PVG and TPE. Since we're talking about BNA in this thread, it's interesting to compare that to BNA. BNA-TYO was about a third larger than AUS-TYO, and BNA-TYO also accounted for about a third of the demand from BNA to northeast Asia, about 40 percent more than the next largest destination (SEL). For anyone interested in RDU, RDU-East Asia is mainland-China-centric;


Agreed about TYO. I predict AUS' first TPAC will be PVG since both Apple and Tesla have a large presence there. After PVG I would think either ICN or PEK would work. AUS will have 3-4 TATL and 1-2 TPAC routes which will provide all the long haul connectivity Austin will ever need. Sprinkle in a few Canadian, Mexico, Caribbean and Central American routes and call it a day. As far as domestic routes AUS will have service to the usual suspects plus a few P2P routes like HNL. I think the future is bright for all three airports discussed.


For the cities discussed in this thread it probably matters which carrier/alliance gets interested in trying interior US TPAC service first. If it’s DL/KE, that benefits AUS. If it’s Star or Oneworld from TYO, that’s probably less good news for AUS. But those choices probably don’t have much to do with the strength of AUS as a market.


Thanks for the research and the input from everyone else! I think these are great points made. I guess INC on KE metal does make sense, especially if DL continues to grow in AUS. However, SkyTeam was the last to get into the AUS TATL game (and didn't even get a chance to launch the service) so I'm skeptical. Maybe they learned their lesson and will beat everyone to the punch for TPAC.

Again, I think that OW is most likely to continue its roll of interior US international service (with BA to AUS being one of the earliest and most successful additions), but maybe not to TYO...but then again my gut feeling is based off nothing fact-based haha
 
MAH4546
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:16 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
AUSCLM wrote:
My prediction long long term with AUS - the three TATL return, there is one TPAC, and drum roll...one of the ME3 and that's it. That would be remarkable.


If, and this is a big if, on the outside chance B6 got a sizable presence in AUS, I’d say EK coming would be a pretty safe bet.


That would be a horrible bet.
a.
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:29 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
AUSCLM wrote:
My prediction long long term with AUS - the three TATL return, there is one TPAC, and drum roll...one of the ME3 and that's it. That would be remarkable.


If, and this is a big if, on the outside chance B6 got a sizable presence in AUS, I’d say EK coming would be a pretty safe bet.


Why? AUS isn't geographically positioned for transfers to EK. Assuming at some point EK resumes most or all of it's US destinations, there are much more convenient places to connect.
 
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albspotter
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:35 pm

I feel like ALB is next for BNA's expansion. Our demand for BNA is suitable for a daily 737-700 flight. Since WN started BDL-BNA, I do think ALB could come next. BDL has almost the same amount as routes as ALB does except for a couple exceptions. I see WN is trying to build a little focus city at BNA and one thing ALB loves, is vacation destinations. BNA could be used as another BWI for more options for tourists and snow-birds. That's what I predict to come next out of BNA with WN.
 
775899
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:56 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
AUSCLM wrote:
My prediction long long term with AUS - the three TATL return, there is one TPAC, and drum roll...one of the ME3 and that's it. That would be remarkable.


If, and this is a big if, on the outside chance B6 got a sizable presence in AUS, I’d say EK coming would be a pretty safe bet.


That would be a horrible bet.


If I were making it based on present marketshare conditions, then yes. But notice the caveat I added at the beginning: if on the outside chance B6 gets a sizable presence in the AUS market (i.e, 100+ flights). If that happened, EK would be a no brainer in AUS, given the combination of the feed and the massively growing region with ties to India due to the tech sector.

But I do not believe that will happen anytime soon, so everyone don’t get all up in arms.
 
MAH4546
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:57 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

If, and this is a big if, on the outside chance B6 got a sizable presence in AUS, I’d say EK coming would be a pretty safe bet.


That would be a horrible bet.


If I were making it based on present marketshare conditions, then yes. But notice the caveat I added at the beginning: if on the outside chance B6 gets a sizable presence in the AUS market (i.e, 100+ flights). If that happened, EK would be a no brainer in AUS, given the combination of the feed and the massively growing region with ties to India due to the tech sector.

But I do not believe that will happen anytime soon, so everyone don’t get all up in arms.


Would still be a no. Emirates has Houston and Dallas.
a.
 
775899
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:01 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

That would be a horrible bet.


If I were making it based on present marketshare conditions, then yes. But notice the caveat I added at the beginning: if on the outside chance B6 gets a sizable presence in the AUS market (i.e, 100+ flights). If that happened, EK would be a no brainer in AUS, given the combination of the feed and the massively growing region with ties to India due to the tech sector.

But I do not believe that will happen anytime soon, so everyone don’t get all up in arms.


Would still be a no. Emirates has Houston and Dallas.


And? They have no feed there. By that logic, why have LH at AUS with IAH right down the road with massive feed on both ends?
 
MAH4546
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:20 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

If I were making it based on present marketshare conditions, then yes. But notice the caveat I added at the beginning: if on the outside chance B6 gets a sizable presence in the AUS market (i.e, 100+ flights). If that happened, EK would be a no brainer in AUS, given the combination of the feed and the massively growing region with ties to India due to the tech sector.

But I do not believe that will happen anytime soon, so everyone don’t get all up in arms.


Would still be a no. Emirates has Houston and Dallas.


And? They have no feed there. By that logic, why have LH at AUS with IAH right down the road with massive feed on both ends?


Emirates doesn’t need feed.

The logic isn’t consistent. Lufthansa serves an insanely larger local market (by a factor of over 100x larger) and Frankfurt hub connects to Europe AND Africa AND the Middle East AND Indian Subcontinent.

Regardless, LH probably won’t be back at Austin for a while.
a.
 
Wacko55
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:42 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Would still be a no. Emirates has Houston and Dallas.


And? They have no feed there. By that logic, why have LH at AUS with IAH right down the road with massive feed on both ends?


Emirates doesn’t need feed.

The logic isn’t consistent. Lufthansa serves an insanely larger local market (by a factor of over 100x larger) and Frankfurt hub connects to Europe AND Africa AND the Middle East AND Indian Subcontinent.

Regardless, LH probably won’t be back at Austin for a while.


3/28/21
 
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ERJ170
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:56 pm

On a related note, RDU will get its LHR, CDG, YYZ, YUL, and CUN flights back. Is there a possibility of other international flights? There is a clear lack of international carriers. Or are we just destined to maintain North American carriers?
Aiming High and going far..
 
MAH4546
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:13 pm

Wacko55 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

And? They have no feed there. By that logic, why have LH at AUS with IAH right down the road with massive feed on both ends?


Emirates doesn’t need feed.

The logic isn’t consistent. Lufthansa serves an insanely larger local market (by a factor of over 100x larger) and Frankfurt hub connects to Europe AND Africa AND the Middle East AND Indian Subcontinent.

Regardless, LH probably won’t be back at Austin for a while.


3/28/21


That’s just the default summer schedule from last year. Lufthansa only has loaded its schedule through 2/28/22. Everything beyond that is dummy schedule.
a.
 
775899
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:20 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Would still be a no. Emirates has Houston and Dallas.


And? They have no feed there. By that logic, why have LH at AUS with IAH right down the road with massive feed on both ends?


Emirates doesn’t need feed.

The logic isn’t consistent. Lufthansa serves an insanely larger local market (by a factor of over 100x larger) and Frankfurt hub connects to Europe AND Africa AND the Middle East AND Indian Subcontinent.

Regardless, LH probably won’t be back at Austin for a while.


Feed never hurts. And it’s not inconsistent because the point is there wouldn’t be too much overlap as you’d think. EK serves those areas as well, and is better connected to India than LH, which is key for AUS and the tech industry.

Regardless, it’s a moot point unless B6 significantly builds up AUS, which probably won’t happen anytime soon.
 
Longhornmaniac
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:17 pm

TomJoel wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
TomJoel wrote:
AUS is a mess in every imaginable way. I just can't see AUS growing that much with DFW and IAD so close, relatively speaking. Then again, DFW is horrendous, but it keeps growing for some stupid reason, so who knows...

BNA probably has the brightest outlook. Growing market not close to any major hub. I honestly expect Nashville to outpace Austin in grown by 10 fold in 10 years.


Lol, you obviously have something against Texas. What you said is not even remotely accurate. AUS has the brightest outlook of the three airports mentioned here hands down. It’s a huge catchment area and growing twice as fast as Nashville and Raleigh/Durham. Not to mention being the capitol of the tenth largest economy in the world.

BNA has a bright future no doubt, but even if it becomes WN’s SE megastation, I doubt it will receive as much international long haul service as AUS will.



The subject of Texas and/or its likeability is not the subject of this forum, so that's irrelevant.

I'm saying AUS has a geography problem sandwiched between IAD and DFW. Look at SAT. San Antonio is the 3rd fastest-growing metro in the U.S. and the 2nd largest city in Texas behind Houston (visitsanantonio.com). However, SAT has not grown as it should. Why? Because IAD is so close. AUS will find itself in a similar situation.

Oh and for the record, I Texas is a dump and I personally don't like it, but again thats irrelevant.


This take is mind-numbingly stupid and also factually inaccurate. The Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA is the third fastest growing MSA in the nation by percentage, and the top two (The Villages and Myrtle Beach) are 150K and 500K vs 2.2 million in Austin. Austin is the fastest growing MSA (30%) in the top 100 by a wide margin (Raleigh-Cary is the next closest at 23%). (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html)

You lack any grasp on the market dynamics in the state. Ignoring your blatant contradiction about San Antonio, even if your data is wrong, San Antonio is extremely dependent on the US Military. With several bases in the city, a good portion of the city's economy is derived from that. Barring another Cold War or World War 3, it simply won't grow overwhelmingly fast, and will also see more transients.

In stark contrast, Austin is a young, vibrant, dynamic economy with local and state government, a booming tech sector, a Tier 1 research university, a growing convention focus, and a multitude of independent leisure travel streams. Your dislike of Texas notwithstanding, this is just the reality. Austin has outpaced Houston and Dallas in growth for two decades.

You also seem to lack a basic understanding of how big Texas is. Austin is 200 miles away from Dallas and 160 from Houston. You'd never say that growth in Tampa would prevent growth in Orlando (85 miles), growth in Los Angeles would prevent growth in San Diego (120 miles) or that growth in New York would prevent growth in Boston (215 miles). Because they're separate cities with separate market dynamics. Geography alone doesn't dictate growth or lack thereof.

Time to stop hiding behind your ignorance and educate yourself.

As for the topic, anyone making guesses about what will or won't happen post-COVID is making a lot of assumptions. All three cities were positioned well and poised for continued growth. Fundamentally, I expect that to continue over the medium- to long-term, but there's a lot of guesswork now about when that will be.

I've likened Nashville's path to Austin's, only about 5 years behind. Growing, stable city with global demand from a business and leisure standpoint. I think it'd be reasonable to expect a second TATL carrier in BNA sometime soon. For many, many years the Texas Hill Country has been a popular tourist destination with Germans, and that along with the strength of Star Alliance via United contributed to LH's decision to start AUS after giving it a test run with Condor. Clearly bookings were good enough, and not so leisure-centered, to justify the switch to LH. Not sure which carrier would make the most sense for BNA, but my gut says Skyteam.

I think it's still a matter of when, not if, Austin gets TPAC service. Although TYO seems a logical gateway, I agree with others that SEL seems more likely owing to the business travel to Korea vis-a-vis Japan ex AUS. Both NRT and ICN can provide comparable onward connections, but I think the scales are tipped in favor of ICN just because of Samsung. PVG is an interesting thought, but I'll stick with my ICN prediction sometime in the next 3-5 years (I would've said 12-18 months before COVID).

Frankly, unless you are from Austin or have spent considerable time here over a long period of time, it's really difficult to grasp what's happening in this city. Austin is overshadowed in size by the DFW Metroplex and Houston metro area, but as a market it's very much a maturing, stable city. And there's no reason to expect anything other than continued growth at a rapid, predictable rate.

From before the time BA announced AUS, many have argued Austin's proximity to the DFW and IAH fortress hubs would limit its possibility for long-haul travel. BA's resounding success, and the entry of LH and KL's planned entry continue to show that line of thinking is outdated and reflective of a world that existed before the 787, which really pioneered profitable long, thin routes. Increasingly, the viability of secondary cities like AUS, BNA, and RDU has expanded the network possibilities, particularly for global alliances. As recently as 15 years ago, someone trying to travel between two secondary cities like Austin and Bangalore would have had possibly a 4 leg journey with domestic connections on each end. The amount of cities connected now by just a single connection has ushered in a new era of network strategy by the global air carriers. Fortress hubs won't go anywhere, particularly in the US due to their ability to connect smaller domestic locations to others and points international.

I simply don't know enough about RDU on a micro level to speak much about it other than to say the Research Triangle will continue to be an attractive spoke in any global route network. How and where that manifests itself I'm not sure, but I'd bet on its connectivity increasing over the next decade.
Cheers,
Cameron
 
toga998
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 1:14 am

Longhornmaniac wrote:
TomJoel wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

Lol, you obviously have something against Texas. What you said is not even remotely accurate. AUS has the brightest outlook of the three airports mentioned here hands down. It’s a huge catchment area and growing twice as fast as Nashville and Raleigh/Durham. Not to mention being the capitol of the tenth largest economy in the world.

BNA has a bright future no doubt, but even if it becomes WN’s SE megastation, I doubt it will receive as much international long haul service as AUS will.



The subject of Texas and/or its likeability is not the subject of this forum, so that's irrelevant.

I'm saying AUS has a geography problem sandwiched between IAD and DFW. Look at SAT. San Antonio is the 3rd fastest-growing metro in the U.S. and the 2nd largest city in Texas behind Houston (visitsanantonio.com). However, SAT has not grown as it should. Why? Because IAD is so close. AUS will find itself in a similar situation.

Oh and for the record, I Texas is a dump and I personally don't like it, but again thats irrelevant.


This take is mind-numbingly stupid and also factually inaccurate. The Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown MSA is the third fastest growing MSA in the nation by percentage, and the top two (The Villages and Myrtle Beach) are 150K and 500K vs 2.2 million in Austin. Austin is the fastest growing MSA (30%) in the top 100 by a wide margin (Raleigh-Cary is the next closest at 23%). (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html)

You lack any grasp on the market dynamics in the state. Ignoring your blatant contradiction about San Antonio, even if your data is wrong, San Antonio is extremely dependent on the US Military. With several bases in the city, a good portion of the city's economy is derived from that. Barring another Cold War or World War 3, it simply won't grow overwhelmingly fast, and will also see more transients.

In stark contrast, Austin is a young, vibrant, dynamic economy with local and state government, a booming tech sector, a Tier 1 research university, a growing convention focus, and a multitude of independent leisure travel streams. Your dislike of Texas notwithstanding, this is just the reality. Austin has outpaced Houston and Dallas in growth for two decades.

You also seem to lack a basic understanding of how big Texas is. Austin is 200 miles away from Dallas and 160 from Houston. You'd never say that growth in Tampa would prevent growth in Orlando (85 miles), growth in Los Angeles would prevent growth in San Diego (120 miles) or that growth in New York would prevent growth in Boston (215 miles). Because they're separate cities with separate market dynamics. Geography alone doesn't dictate growth or lack thereof.

Time to stop hiding behind your ignorance and educate yourself.

As for the topic, anyone making guesses about what will or won't happen post-COVID is making a lot of assumptions. All three cities were positioned well and poised for continued growth. Fundamentally, I expect that to continue over the medium- to long-term, but there's a lot of guesswork now about when that will be.

I've likened Nashville's path to Austin's, only about 5 years behind. Growing, stable city with global demand from a business and leisure standpoint. I think it'd be reasonable to expect a second TATL carrier in BNA sometime soon. For many, many years the Texas Hill Country has been a popular tourist destination with Germans, and that along with the strength of Star Alliance via United contributed to LH's decision to start AUS after giving it a test run with Condor. Clearly bookings were good enough, and not so leisure-centered, to justify the switch to LH. Not sure which carrier would make the most sense for BNA, but my gut says Skyteam.

I think it's still a matter of when, not if, Austin gets TPAC service. Although TYO seems a logical gateway, I agree with others that SEL seems more likely owing to the business travel to Korea vis-a-vis Japan ex AUS. Both NRT and ICN can provide comparable onward connections, but I think the scales are tipped in favor of ICN just because of Samsung. PVG is an interesting thought, but I'll stick with my ICN prediction sometime in the next 3-5 years (I would've said 12-18 months before COVID).

Frankly, unless you are from Austin or have spent considerable time here over a long period of time, it's really difficult to grasp what's happening in this city. Austin is overshadowed in size by the DFW Metroplex and Houston metro area, but as a market it's very much a maturing, stable city. And there's no reason to expect anything other than continued growth at a rapid, predictable rate.

From before the time BA announced AUS, many have argued Austin's proximity to the DFW and IAH fortress hubs would limit its possibility for long-haul travel. BA's resounding success, and the entry of LH and KL's planned entry continue to show that line of thinking is outdated and reflective of a world that existed before the 787, which really pioneered profitable long, thin routes. Increasingly, the viability of secondary cities like AUS, BNA, and RDU has expanded the network possibilities, particularly for global alliances. As recently as 15 years ago, someone trying to travel between two secondary cities like Austin and Bangalore would have had possibly a 4 leg journey with domestic connections on each end. The amount of cities connected now by just a single connection has ushered in a new era of network strategy by the global air carriers. Fortress hubs won't go anywhere, particularly in the US due to their ability to connect smaller domestic locations to others and points international.

I simply don't know enough about RDU on a micro level to speak much about it other than to say the Research Triangle will continue to be an attractive spoke in any global route network. How and where that manifests itself I'm not sure, but I'd bet on its connectivity increasing over the next decade.

YAAAAAAS queen snap back at the haters
 
Indy
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:04 am

AUS and BNA real estate prices are unsustainable. In the long run it will end up hurting those markets. RDU isn't quite as bad but it isn't too far off. These three markets do not offer anything special to justify the prices. Eventually there will be a correction and air travel will take a hit as a result. Just my two cents but you have to take a realistic view of markets and I believe that is realistic
IND to RDU to OKC in 18 months. This is what my life has become.
 
775899
Topic Author
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:14 am

Indy wrote:
AUS and BNA real estate prices are unsustainable. In the long run it will end up hurting those markets. RDU isn't quite as bad but it isn't too far off. These three markets do not offer anything special to justify the prices. Eventually there will be a correction and air travel will take a hit as a result. Just my two cents but you have to take a realistic view of markets and I believe that is realistic


I can’t speak for AUS, but there are still plenty of places in the BNA market where it is affordable. Outside of Nashville/Davidson County and the Brentwood/Franklin areas in Williamson County, it is very affordable to live here (even in the aforementioned areas, it is still relatively affordable compared to elsewhere).
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:22 am

Anyone moving out of California will find Austin, RDU or Nashville affordable.

Their money goes alot further even if it's gone up alot for locals it's still affordable compared to California taxes and prices.

The areas will all continue to grow, and o&d numbers will increase but all these high tech companies in each I expect to get hit the hardest with virtual meetings and less travel. Their business travel demand will plummet even if jobs keep rushing to the area. I expect the ULCC and LCCs to thrive in these markets. The legacies are going to be more and more focused on hubs. Expect more interest by southwest , JetBlue, frontier, allegiant and spirit in these markets. I think all will get adds, but no one is working on a connection hub for any of them. Much less likely now than it was in 2019 for someone to do a connection focus city. Point to point o&d will be the focus.
 
tphuang
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:25 am

It seems to me that Austin will remain a fragmented market for a long time. It cannot be a legacy fortress hub since DFW and IAH are huge and would kill any DL attempt to make it a profitable hub. It cannot be a WN hub, because DAL and HOU are right next doors. Both airports carry large amount of connection from AUS. WN should dominate O&D to non-coastal cities and secondary cali airport for a long time. It would never be a dominant airline since it's quite weak on the primary markets on east coast outside of BWI/DCA and also not that strong to the main west coast airports of SEA/SFO/LAX. It would struggle to attract the transplants from the coast or the type that does a lot of international travel. All the legacy carriers have large corporate contracts with major operations in AUS so they all have to be invested in this market. So it's become like a small version of BOS and LAX. No one can dominate, but everyone needs to be there. So as a market, AUS is quite competitive despite being about the same size as BNA.

It's been a few years since I traveled to Austin, but I would have a hard time believing that it cannot expand further. Compared to what I deal with NYC, Austin downtown is a cakewalk. Sure, it's more expensive than other parts of Texas and also more crowded. But compared to where people are relocating from, Austin is not all that crowded and not that expensive. And yes, I did look for housing that last time I visited Austin and then decided not to make the move myself.

Another problem Austin faces is the airport itself. It's probably not expanding fast enough to handle the explosion in demand from the area. I've known a lot of people that from to Dallas and then drove to Austin because the air fares were a lot cheaper. Austin would do a lot better if it was not next to Dallas and Houston.

I've never been to Nashville. But it seems to me that WN is going to expand there as much as the airport can handle. So even though it is about the same size market as Austin, it will probably end up supporting more flights, because WN can ultimately turn it into their Southeastern hub.

RDU kind of have the same problem as AUS. It's a growing metro area with all the "right' industries and great universities, but it's next to CLT. If CLT was not so close, RDU could probably be a legacy hub and have a greater catchment area. Unlike AUS, it's actually located perfectly as a connection hub from the Northeast to Florida and Western part of Caribbeans. I think that's possibly what JetBlue sees in RDU. We will see how it works out for them.
 
775899
Topic Author
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:11 am

tphuang wrote:
It seems to me that Austin will remain a fragmented market for a long time. It cannot be a legacy fortress hub since DFW and IAH are huge and would kill any DL attempt to make it a profitable hub. It cannot be a WN hub, because DAL and HOU are right next doors. Both airports carry large amount of connection from AUS. WN should dominate O&D to non-coastal cities and secondary cali airport for a long time. It would never be a dominant airline since it's quite weak on the primary markets on east coast outside of BWI/DCA and also not that strong to the main west coast airports of SEA/SFO/LAX. It would struggle to attract the transplants from the coast or the type that does a lot of international travel. All the legacy carriers have large corporate contracts with major operations in AUS so they all have to be invested in this market. So it's become like a small version of BOS and LAX. No one can dominate, but everyone needs to be there. So as a market, AUS is quite competitive despite being about the same size as BNA.


But even BOS and LAX have airlines that have 100+ flight focus city/hubs. They aren’t dominate, fortress hubs, but they are present. I know it’s a different situation, but I find it incredibly hard to believe that AUS won’t eventually see a 100 or so flight focus city from someone.


tphuang wrote:
Another problem Austin faces is the airport itself. It's probably not expanding fast enough to handle the explosion in demand from the area. I've known a lot of people that from to Dallas and then drove to Austin because the air fares were a lot cheaper. Austin would do a lot better if it was not next to Dallas and Houston.

I've never been to Nashville. But it seems to me that WN is going to expand there as much as the airport can handle. So even though it is about the same size market as Austin, it will probably end up supporting more flights, because WN can ultimately turn it into their Southeastern hub.


Both AUS and BNA face the same problem, they both badly need more gates, but are facing delays in their expansion plans due to COVID. I know AUS was planning on building a 32 gate satellite as well as a (badly needed) centralized head terminal with a consolidated security checkpoint. That has been pushed back to mid-decade at the soonest IIRC. Which is bad because AUS in its current state is waaaay too small.

As for BNA, they are already undergoing an expansion called BNA Vision, but it’s not doing much in the way of adding new gates. It’s more focused on expanding other aspects of the airport as well as developing the capability to handle international/widebody flights (something they can’t do very well right now) via a new central FIS facility. Plans for a phase 2 to BNA Vision that would, amongst other things, rebuild Concourse A with 10 new gates as well as build a new 8 gate satellite Concourse E are in serious jeopardy of being delayed.

I think RDU had some similar issues as well, but not quite on this scale.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:23 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The whole backup or overflow hub theories have never worked out. Financially its just cheaper to have one hub and deal with the delays etc. Delta never needed CVG for an overflow hub , united never needed CLE, AA/US never needed STL or PIT.


Agree. Just talking points from route developing departments to justify the added bulk and overhead that mergers bring to the table.
 
WN732
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:16 pm

All 3 will continue to boom for the foreseable future. I live in Williamson County, TX, and there is nearly no supply for homes anywhere in the Austin metro because demand is so high. It's no secret that folks are moving here from NYC and anywhere in California. The same can probably be said for BNA and RDU. When I lived in California, we evaluated all 3 due to their decent tech sectors, with Austin having the edge. I've heard nothing but similar stories from people who have moved here from out of state.

During the pandemic, we have seen several large Silicon Valley companies either set up large offices or move their HQ here entirely. There is nothing but growth during the long term. It certainly doesn't hurt that the Austin area is a very nice place to live.

I'm not sure why folks are comparing AUS and saying that it is crippled by our larger neighbors to the East and North. AUS is clearly not hampered by IAH/ DFW. If anything they all serve a complimentary purpose. This year we were supposed to have KLM, LH, BA, and Norwegian offering services to Europe. All of which are on hold for now. Then we have Hawaiian coming in during a pandemic - completely passing up DEN, DFW, IAH, SLC, ORD. All of which have established links and O&D to Hawaii - I would not doubt that there is going to be some feed to/from Asia through HNL on those flights.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4263
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:04 pm

tphuang wrote:
It cannot be a WN hub, because DAL and HOU are right next doors.


While I agree that WN will never be as big at AUS as at DAL or HOU, WN was maxed out at DAL prior to the significant cuts that it made at DAL during the last 9 months as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN was also maxed out at AUS prior to the significant cuts that it made at AUS during the COVID-19 pandemic, but WN has more room to add more flights out of AUS as WN now has a much smaller presence at AUS than it did prior to the pandemic.
 
izbtmnhd
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:35 pm

The idea AUS/BNA/RDU can each be a decent sized hub needs to be put on hold for quite some time. Flight loads to the existing hubs are filled with unprofitable fares and there's more certainly cutting to be done. IMHO, this thread needs to be revisited around mid-decade to reassess the situation.
 
khowaga
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 9:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
It seems to me that Austin will remain a fragmented market for a long time. It cannot be a legacy fortress hub since DFW and IAH are huge and would kill any DL attempt to make it a profitable hub. It cannot be a WN hub, because DAL and HOU are right next doors.

Another problem Austin faces is the airport itself. It's probably not expanding fast enough to handle the explosion in demand from the area. I've known a lot of people that from to Dallas and then drove to Austin because the air fares were a lot cheaper. Austin would do a lot better if it was not next to Dallas and Houston.


I don’t think AUS is chasing a hub; several people have mentioned this.

AUS’s market strength is based mostly on its O&D traffic, connecting traffic is minuscule and probably limited to people chasing a cheap fare on WN. (DL’s much discussed focus city plans also involved O&D). The airport was even designed on the premise that AUS would never house a hub operation, and that no one was going to need to trek from gate 1 to gate 30.

That said, the terminal *is* too small (especially the check in area), although the 9-gate expansion really only reached full operation a few months before things started shutting down. And, yes, as others have mentioned, the expansion plans have been postponed due to the pandemic. (Not sure what’s going on with the west terminal infill; it kind of popped up at one point as a project that was going ahead, but haven’t heard anything since).

In all likelihood, the pandemic will keep space from being so tight for a bit, although we’ll probably be back to bursting at the seams before the next terminal expansion is open.
 
775899
Topic Author
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:29 pm

khowaga wrote:
I don’t think AUS is chasing a hub; several people have mentioned this.

AUS’s market strength is based mostly on its O&D traffic, connecting traffic is minuscule and probably limited to people chasing a cheap fare on WN. (DL’s much discussed focus city plans also involved O&D). The airport was even designed on the premise that AUS would never house a hub operation, and that no one was going to need to trek from gate 1 to gate 30.


I agree they aren’t chasing a hub, but I don’t think it’s accurate to say the AUS design was based on the premise it would never be one. The way the terminal is laid out, it could easily be configured into a ATL-esque midfield layout. In fact, they sort of are doing that with the expansion.
 
khowaga
Posts: 279
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2010 1:07 pm

The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 21, 2020 10:46 pm

BNAMealer wrote:
khowaga wrote:
I don’t think AUS is chasing a hub; several people have mentioned this.

AUS’s market strength is based mostly on its O&D traffic, connecting traffic is minuscule and probably limited to people chasing a cheap fare on WN. (DL’s much discussed focus city plans also involved O&D). The airport was even designed on the premise that AUS would never house a hub operation, and that no one was going to need to trek from gate 1 to gate 30.


I agree they aren’t chasing a hub, but I don’t think it’s accurate to say the AUS design was based on the premise it would never be one. The way the terminal is laid out, it could easily be configured into a ATL-esque midfield layout. In fact, they sort of are doing that with the expansion.

No, the original architect actually said that! They wanted the gate-to-street journey to be the one that took priority, which is why the terminal was laid out long and thin. The idea was that passengers could get from street to gate quickly, but they didn’t realistically foresee a scenario in which anyone would need to go end to end.

I don’t even remember where I read this, it was so long ago (I remember when ABIA opened, so it may have been in the press around the time). The architectural firm had consulted with the city and everyone had agreed that planning for hub traffic was unrealistic.

Granted, this was in the 90s when AUS was still a kind of sleepy college town of 350,000, and this kind of growth was being projected for 2050 rather than 2020. (It was also pre-9/11 when you go could through security in seconds.)

However, you’re right in that the idea was that if/when expansion was needed they could either attach piers to the main terminal (which was one of the ideas floated) or do a midfield concourse, like ATL.
 
AntonioMartin
Posts: 821
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:48 am

BNAMealer wrote:
AUSCLM wrote:
My prediction long long term with AUS - the three TATL return, there is one TPAC, and drum roll...one of the ME3 and that's it. That would be remarkable.


If, and this is a big if, on the outside chance B6 got a sizable presence in AUS, I’d say EK coming would be a pretty safe bet.

AUS 4 EK b4 PHX???
 
Boof02671
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:49 pm

ERJ170 wrote:
On a related note, RDU will get its LHR, CDG, YYZ, YUL, and CUN flights back. Is there a possibility of other international flights? There is a clear lack of international carriers. Or are we just destined to maintain North American carriers?

LHR is pushed back till May and CDG is pushed to April.
 
Boof02671
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:55 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Anyone moving out of California will find Austin, RDU or Nashville affordable.

Their money goes alot further even if it's gone up alot for locals it's still affordable compared to California taxes and prices.

The areas will all continue to grow, and o&d numbers will increase but all these high tech companies in each I expect to get hit the hardest with virtual meetings and less travel. Their business travel demand will plummet even if jobs keep rushing to the area. I expect the ULCC and LCCs to thrive in these markets. The legacies are going to be more and more focused on hubs. Expect more interest by southwest , JetBlue, frontier, allegiant and spirit in these markets. I think all will get adds, but no one is working on a connection hub for any of them. Much less likely now than it was in 2019 for someone to do a connection focus city. Point to point o&d will be the focus.

Both BNA and RDU WERE hubs for AA. They were dehubbed
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3581
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 28, 2020 12:35 am

Looks like Delta is relaunching AUS-RDU after cutting it a few weeks ago.

The flight begins on the exact same day JetBlue launches the route - February 11, 2021.
 
tphuang
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:46 am

well, there bounds to be some retaliation from Delta side on JetBlue's adds. At end of the days, what each airlines will end up flying remains to be seen.
 
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jscottwomack
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Thu Jan 14, 2021 8:56 pm

khowaga wrote:
AAtakeMeAway wrote:
jscottwomack wrote:
AA keeps tabs on Austin. More than once I have been on a DC-10, 767, 777, 787 out of Austin for the short 30 something minute flight to DFW. If there is something going on in Austin, AA will sub in Large Aircraft. Once I flew to DFW on a DC-10 and we had 2 missed approaches at DFW. Nothing like Rear Tires hitting the pavement and hearing the engines spool up for a go around.


I buy the DC-10, since they even flew those DFW-ELP-DFW back in the day, but when did AA run 777 and 787's from DFW-AUS-DFW?

The largest I’ve ever seen scheduled regularly is the 321 (and the 757 before they got rid of them). I’ve seen the 777 and 787 only when there’s been some sort of weather event with a lot of cancellations, and they need to clear a backlog of passengers and/or luggage.



They will sub them in when Texas has a home Football Game. Maybe not this year with covid, but in years past to get the crowds out of town. It is a lot easier to fly our of Austin to Dallas than Drive I-35 after a game.
TWA, Ozark, Braniff, Piedmont, USAir, American, Delta, Frontier, Midwest Express, Western, Eastern, Southwest, Northwest, PanAm, United, Mississippi Valley, Britt, Continental, Trans America, Midway, America West, National, American Trans Air, Sun Country
 
AAtakeMeAway
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Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Thu Jan 14, 2021 10:09 pm

jscottwomack wrote:
khowaga wrote:
AAtakeMeAway wrote:

I buy the DC-10, since they even flew those DFW-ELP-DFW back in the day, but when did AA run 777 and 787's from DFW-AUS-DFW?

The largest I’ve ever seen scheduled regularly is the 321 (and the 757 before they got rid of them). I’ve seen the 777 and 787 only when there’s been some sort of weather event with a lot of cancellations, and they need to clear a backlog of passengers and/or luggage.



They will sub them in when Texas has a home Football Game. Maybe not this year with covid, but in years past to get the crowds out of town. It is a lot easier to fly our of Austin to Dallas than Drive I-35 after a game.


I understand, I thought you meant regularly scheduled service.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3581
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: The Future of AUS/BNA/RDU

Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:35 am

775899 wrote:
In light of the recent adds by B6 in AUS/RDU and the WN adds in BNA, it got me thinking about the future of these airports and what role they could play in the nations air system going forward when the recovery happens.


And three months later, AA has expanded at all three of these airports.

From Austin:

- Las Vegas (LAS)
- Orlando (MCO) - Expanded/Increased
- Tampa (TPA)
- Washington-Dulles (IAD)
- Nashville (BNA)
- New Orleans (MSY)
- Raleigh/Durham (RDU)
- Aspen (ASE)
- Destin (VPS)
- Los Cabos (SJD) - Expanded season
- Nassau (NAS)

From Nashville:

- Orlando (MCO)
- Raleigh/Durham (RDU)
- Austin (AUS)

From Raleigh/Durham:

- Orlando (MCO)
- Austin (AUS)
- Nashville (BNA)
- Destin (VPS)

I'm assuming the routes connecting these three airports (AUS-BNA/RDU, BNA-RDU) were served by AA years ago.

AA is really going after Austin for business demand (Oracle) and the leisure market. The new addition of Nassau today is interesting as it's Austin's only flight to the Caribbean. I believe Austin Airport was expecting service to San Jose, Costa Rica (SJO) by the end of 2020. Could AA add Austin to Central America flights?

Destin/Fort Walton Beach seems to be a big target for AA. In addition to AUS/RDU-VPS, they're also adding a flight from the PHL hub. Southwest is launching VPS later this year, and shortly after AA added AUS-VPS last month, Southwest added its own AUS-VPS. Could we see Southwest add RDU-VPS as well? In terms of PDEW, SAN/SAT/SJC/PDX are some of the largest unserved domestic markets from RDU.

It's amazing seeing AA expand at these destinations that once had more AA service. Question is, how long will these routes actually last?

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