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mercure1
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Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:04 pm

The German leasing company Dr. Peters Group has selected U.S. based VAS Aero Services for teardown and redistribution of two Airbus A380-800 aircraft as spare parts.

https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2020/12/d ... -aero.html

No shock really. Earlier this year Dr. Peters which had investments in 21 A380 frames at one time stated "onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."
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UPlog
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Fri Dec 18, 2020 8:30 pm

Anyone have idea which two tails this might be?
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:09 pm

UPlog wrote:
Anyone have idea which two tails this might be?

It’s probably 9V-SKD and 9V-SKE. Both have been stored for several years but not yet scrapped.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:15 pm

UPlog wrote:
Anyone have idea which two tails this might be?


I can`t tell for sure but Dr. Peters Group has 3 fonds for Air France A380`s so could one of them ???
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:26 pm

What about those non-Dr. Peters A380s that were sent to storage, such as that recently-retired Emirates frame or HiFly's A380? How likely is it that they too are going to be scrapped?
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:24 am

The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:51 am

oldJoe wrote:
UPlog wrote:
Anyone have idea which two tails this might be?


I can`t tell for sure but Dr. Peters Group has 3 fonds for Air France A380`s so could one of them ???


The article mentioned that the RR engines would be kept by Dr Peters, so conseq. Air France A380 aircraft (GP7270 powered) will not be involved
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:52 am

vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?

VFW614. VFW bought most back from customers to eliminate type compliance and insurance costs. Aircraft supplied to the German Air Force continued for another decade.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:59 am

vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?

The DC-7. But you were probably thinking of jet airliners, and there is the CV-880/990
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 10:17 am

mercure1 wrote:
The German leasing company Dr. Peters Group has selected U.S. based VAS Aero Services for teardown and redistribution of two Airbus A380-800 aircraft as spare parts.

https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2020/12/d ... -aero.html

No shock really. Earlier this year Dr. Peters which had investments in 21 A380 frames at one time stated "onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

They probably decided to do it now and not wait any longer because demand for spare parts will reduce when A380s leave airline service. Soon, these spare parts will sell at lower prices.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 11:52 am

SEPilot wrote:
vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?

The DC-7. But you were probably thinking of jet airliners, and there is the CV-880/990

The DC-7 was in service as late as 2020, for firefighting operations. Even in cargo operations, it outlived the L-1649.

Many old airliners stayed in service for a surprisingly long time, often either as cargo conversions, government planes, flying charters or bought second-hand in less wealthy countries. None of these roles are really an option for the A380. The DC-8 and 727 could outlive the A380.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 1:35 pm

flee wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
The German leasing company Dr. Peters Group has selected U.S. based VAS Aero Services for teardown and redistribution of two Airbus A380-800 aircraft as spare parts.

https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2020/12/d ... -aero.html

No shock really. Earlier this year Dr. Peters which had investments in 21 A380 frames at one time stated "onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

They probably decided to do it now and not wait any longer because demand for spare parts will reduce when A380s leave airline service. Soon, these spare parts will sell at lower prices.

The A380 parts market will be mucked up. Due to all the used spares, there will no demand from vendors, so they will be released from contract. Thus the only source of many parts (not all, e.g. brakes) will be scavanged. This does not promote good economics for the type.

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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:46 pm

flee wrote:
mercure1 wrote:
The German leasing company Dr. Peters Group has selected U.S. based VAS Aero Services for teardown and redistribution of two Airbus A380-800 aircraft as spare parts.

https://www.airlinerwatch.com/2020/12/d ... -aero.html

No shock really. Earlier this year Dr. Peters which had investments in 21 A380 frames at one time stated "onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

They probably decided to do it now and not wait any longer because demand for spare parts will reduce when A380s leave airline service. Soon, these spare parts will sell at lower prices.


What is the maximum % of the fleet that will be parts donors, 25%? Some things like engines are valuable for nearly all of them for their green time, but are any being overhauled now? But say flaps, possibly 30 sets would seem to be enough stock for the fleet, if they have the same life as the frame. The actuators, doors, seals, glass, and the like are all valuable right to their calendar life. Seals have a shorter shelf life - 5, 6 years once opened, as a sealed fresh part possibly 12 years?

Things that get consumed in overhauls have value right up to the last dozen flying. But body parts that are only replaced if damage occurs will soon not be worth the removal and cataloging cost.

It seems like the A380 would have far less commonality to other models parts, compared to an A340 say. Unique gear, unique pressure hydraulics, unique bleed air parts, paks, unique electrical characteristics, unique curvature for doors and windows, unique floor beams, cockpit, lights, cargo hold equipment, etc.

Just think of the lost value in all of the special tooling and gate side equipment, simulators, training, MRO certificates and the like. Imagine the cost of a MRO getting certified, then finds the market disappeared. His competitor didn't and isn't out the money.

All of the stored planes means little parts consumption, with the line stopping nearly every vendor won't have parts orders coming in with any frequency, so the lines will shut down. EK may have placed their orders to have parts for 3-4 years, but has anyone else?

Imagine the pain of these vendors, all the effort and expense getting on the program and going thru certification. Those certification costs probably assumed an ongoing 20 per year revenue stream and a minimum lot of 500. Same with the plant investment, all that equipment to make Glare has little value at the moment. Other programs are also hurting so it gets easy to jettison those lines for cost savings.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:11 pm

mxaxai wrote:
The DC-7 was in service as late as 2020, for firefighting operations. Even in cargo operations, it outlived the L-1649.

Many old airliners stayed in service for a surprisingly long time, often either as cargo conversions, government planes, flying charters or bought second-hand in less wealthy countries. None of these roles are really an option for the A380. The DC-8 and 727 could outlive the A380.


The DC-3 (and converted C-47) will outlive the A380... and many other aircraft.

Amazing aircraft the DC-3 (& the military C-47 based on the DC-3). I believe there are two companies doing complete rebuilds and conversions to them.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:21 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Things that get consumed in overhauls have value right up to the last dozen flying. But body parts that are only replaced if damage occurs will soon not be worth the removal and cataloging cost.

It seems like the A380 would have far less commonality to other models parts, compared to an A340 say. Unique gear, unique pressure hydraulics, unique bleed air parts, paks, unique electrical characteristics, unique curvature for doors and windows, unique floor beams, cockpit, lights, cargo hold equipment, etc.

Just think of the lost value in all of the special tooling and gate side equipment, simulators, training, MRO certificates and the like. Imagine the cost of a MRO getting certified, then finds the market disappeared. His competitor didn't and isn't out the money.

All of the stored planes means little parts consumption, with the line stopping nearly every vendor won't have parts orders coming in with any frequency, so the lines will shut down. EK may have placed their orders to have parts for 3-4 years, but has anyone else?

Imagine the pain of these vendors, all the effort and expense getting on the program and going thru certification. Those certification costs probably assumed an ongoing 20 per year revenue stream and a minimum lot of 500. Same with the plant investment, all that equipment to make Glare has little value at the moment. Other programs are also hurting so it gets easy to jettison those lines for cost savings.


Yup... and remember that Airbus announced the end of A380 production a year before the start of covid. That means it wasn't carrying even variable costs before the downturn in international travel, let alone now. These are some painful le$$on$ for Airbus vendors, shareholders, and French/German/Spanish/UK taxpayers.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:21 pm

And what about the lessor(s) of the last still to be delivered EK A380's or are these final aircraft purchased (and payed) directly by Emirates ?
As a lessor i didn't want to have one of these aircraft in my portofolio.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:32 pm

vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?

It's not dead yet. At least another decade of service ahead.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:56 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Just think of the lost value in all of the special tooling and gate side equipment, simulators, training, MRO certificates and the like. Imagine the cost of a MRO getting certified, then finds the market disappeared. His competitor didn't and isn't out the money.


Not to mention all the money spent on a380 compliant gates, new taxiways etc. Airports spent a lot of money on a fool's errand.
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 4:59 pm

vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.


Not an airline, but isn't Stargazer still flying?
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sat Dec 19, 2020 9:04 pm

Antarius wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Just think of the lost value in all of the special tooling and gate side equipment, simulators, training, MRO certificates and the like. Imagine the cost of a MRO getting certified, then finds the market disappeared. His competitor didn't and isn't out the money.


Not to mention all the money spent on a380 compliant gates, new taxiways etc. Airports spent a lot of money on a fool's errand.


But what if ( I say if ) this is all paid of already ? Then some people made money and lived of it and nothing is lost ?
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:34 am

Nomadd wrote:
vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.


Not an airline, but isn't Stargazer still flying?


Even without counting Stargazer, the Tristar was in passenger service as late as 2008 with ATA, over 30 years after its introduction. I really doubt any airline other than EK will be flying them come the 2030s.

SEPilot wrote:
vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?

The DC-7. But you were probably thinking of jet airliners, and there is the CV-880/990


The Convairs remained in service with some second-hand operators until the late 1980s or early 1990s. Even the Convairs had a better second-hand market than the A380. And don't get me wrong, I love the A380, but it being a flop is undeniable at this point.
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:27 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Just think of the lost value in all of the special tooling and gate side equipment, simulators, training, MRO certificates and the like. Imagine the cost of a MRO getting certified, then finds the market disappeared. His competitor didn't and isn't out the money.

Ok, I had to test your theory if the MROs would be hurt and the answer is... Mostly the in house MROs were setup to do the A380s, but some of the big MROs seemed to have been burned by the experience:

Top10 list from here: https://www.marketresearchreports.com/b ... -companies). *indicates setup for A380 MRO:
*1. Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering at Xiamen: http://enews.haeco.com/node/2880 (I assume for the few Chinese A380s>0
2. ST Aerospace seems to have skipped the A380
*3. Lufthansa Technik performs extensive work. Not just for LH A380s. Oh, the economy of scale will be poor now...
*4. Air France Industries and KLM Engineering & Maintenance have in house work. So they'll have a loss of equipment. I'm not aware of them winning outside work. Did they?
5. AAR built a hanger ready for the A380, but I cannot find evidence they ever performed extensive maintenance and a hanger alone isn't a big expense: https://www.rubbusa.com/aar-mro-hangar- ... l-airport/ I personally think they just built a big hanger to be flexible enough to stuff a bunch of aircraft in there. e.g., I've worked in hangers sized for 3 747s that peaked at 5 planes in them (including one 747).
*6. SIA engineering: I found old links bragging they were the first, but only on the search engine (not the latest pages)
7. Delta Techops. Errr.. No. next
8. SR Technics , I found links advertising A380 work, but no evidence they performed any (old stale pages on the search engines, not linkable)
9. Turkish Technic Doesn't seem to have every done anything A380 related
10. MRO Holdings, no evidence they ever worked the A380

IAI (ok, not top 10) didn't work the A380...

*British Airways in house I found also did Qatar's. Not a top 10, but a pretty big MRO house.
https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... -extension

*Emirates has done their own work as did Korean (I found links Korean painted Qantas A380s... interesting).

Airbus and Etihad signed a MOU to do MRO on the A380 in Abu-Dhabi, but I'm not sure if it happened or not: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... dhabi.html

My quick search didn't find where Asiana had their aircraft serviced. Nor ANA.

Thai did C1 and C2 checks just in a hanger which... wouldn't be the most efficient approach: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... pen-430886

So mostly a double hit on the airlines who flew the A380 were betting on expanding the in house fleets and doing out of house work. Although considering how bad the MRO market is now, I'm not sure we'll be able to tell the financial difference...

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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:10 am

It's interesting that Dr. Peters is scrapping their planes.

Consider the two companies that know the most about A380 parts consumption, and have the largest existing A380 parts inventory: Airbus and Emirates.

An alternative strategy would be to sell them to Airbus/Emirates, who would scrap them. That way Airbus/Emirates could chose which parts it wants, integrate them into its already existing parts inventory and parts databases. Surely no one else in the world has a better idea of which parts are needed for the A380 than Airbus or Emirates. And surely no one else has a larger existing inventory of parts than Airbus or Emirates.

Traditionally, airframe manufacturers don't scrap planes ... but the A380 is unique and Airbus would love to have more service revenue. I don't think Emirates has ever scrapped a plane, but I'm sure they know they want the parts.

This would not require that Airbus or Emirates do the physical labour ... they can contract it to the same group that Dr. Peters is using. But given superior knowledge and more market power ... it would seem they could make a larger profit.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:25 am

lightsaber wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Just think of the lost value in all of the special tooling and gate side equipment, simulators, training, MRO certificates and the like. Imagine the cost of a MRO getting certified, then finds the market disappeared. His competitor didn't and isn't out the money.

Ok, I had to test your theory if the MROs would be hurt and the answer is... Mostly the in house MROs were setup to do the A380s, but some of the big MROs seemed to have been burned by the experience:

Top10 list from here: https://www.marketresearchreports.com/b ... -companies). *indicates setup for A380 MRO:
*1. Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering at Xiamen: http://enews.haeco.com/node/2880 (I assume for the few Chinese A380s>0
2. ST Aerospace seems to have skipped the A380
*3. Lufthansa Technik performs extensive work. Not just for LH A380s. Oh, the economy of scale will be poor now...
*4. Air France Industries and KLM Engineering & Maintenance have in house work. So they'll have a loss of equipment. I'm not aware of them winning outside work. Did they?
5. AAR built a hanger ready for the A380, but I cannot find evidence they ever performed extensive maintenance and a hanger alone isn't a big expense: https://www.rubbusa.com/aar-mro-hangar- ... l-airport/ I personally think they just built a big hanger to be flexible enough to stuff a bunch of aircraft in there. e.g., I've worked in hangers sized for 3 747s that peaked at 5 planes in them (including one 747).
*6. SIA engineering: I found old links bragging they were the first, but only on the search engine (not the latest pages)
7. Delta Techops. Errr.. No. next
8. SR Technics , I found links advertising A380 work, but no evidence they performed any (old stale pages on the search engines, not linkable)
9. Turkish Technic Doesn't seem to have every done anything A380 related
10. MRO Holdings, no evidence they ever worked the A380

IAI (ok, not top 10) didn't work the A380...

*British Airways in house I found also did Qatar's. Not a top 10, but a pretty big MRO house.
https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... -extension

*Emirates has done their own work as did Korean (I found links Korean painted Qantas A380s... interesting).

Airbus and Etihad signed a MOU to do MRO on the A380 in Abu-Dhabi, but I'm not sure if it happened or not: https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... dhabi.html

My quick search didn't find where Asiana had their aircraft serviced. Nor ANA.

Thai did C1 and C2 checks just in a hanger which... wouldn't be the most efficient approach: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/ ... pen-430886

So mostly a double hit on the airlines who flew the A380 were betting on expanding the in house fleets and doing out of house work. Although considering how bad the MRO market is now, I'm not sure we'll be able to tell the financial difference...

Lightsaber


LH Technik is even building another A380 hangar in MNL aside from their existing one. Hope they can get good use out of them once the worldwide A380 fleet shrinks further.
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 5:47 am

Antarius wrote:
Not to mention all the money spent on a380 compliant gates

I'm still wondering what airports are going to (eventually) use the upper-level gate space for? I'm guessing just waiting area?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:07 am

BA only did QR’s line maintenance, no heavy work for QR. In fact BA sent their own 380’s to MNL for the really big stuff that’s was required too .
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:28 am

vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?


747-8i.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:37 am

mxaxai wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?

The DC-7. But you were probably thinking of jet airliners, and there is the CV-880/990

The DC-7 was in service as late as 2020, for firefighting operations. Even in cargo operations, it outlived the L-1649.

Many old airliners stayed in service for a surprisingly long time, often either as cargo conversions, government planes, flying charters or bought second-hand in less wealthy countries. None of these roles are really an option for the A380. The DC-8 and 727 could outlive the A380.

I think you have to take the average lifespan of the total fleet to compare. Many DC-7s only had frontline service for about 7 years and a small fleet, about 10% of the 338 built, soldiered on for more than 20-30 years as tankers and freighters. Most Cv-880s were stored after about 12 years of service, but some 990s survived longer because Spantax and NASA liked them. I see 50% of the A380s being scrapped after 10 years in service and the other half will fly total 20 years so the average lifespan will be short but not recordbreakingly short.
We even see popular current types like 77Ws, A320s, 737-800s being broken up after 10-15 years. With cheap interest rates and more efficient leasing and overhaul MRO companies it's more attractive even for small airlines in poorer countries to operate a new fleet instead of getting old second hands. In the early 1970s buying some old 707/720s or DC-8s were the only way a charter airline or a flag carrier like Biman or Air Mauritius could start operating jets, they couldn't finance anything new.
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:01 am

Strato2 wrote:
vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?


747-8i.


Does that count? That’s a variant/evolution of the highly successful 747. I did write “airliner”, not ”programme”.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:09 am

New engines, new wing, stretched fuselage. It certainly hoped for the same bigger sized market that did not materialize. Above the highly successful 747-400.

It's really interesting to find out what went wrong with predicting the market? We have seen world population growth, we have seen the number of big cities grow and we have seen air travel grow but still there is no substantial need for those very big airplanes?
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:33 am

vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?


We can do a comparison when the last A380 is retired from service. Given Airbus is still delivering frames (albeit slowly), it should be some years before we can make that call.
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vhtje
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:02 pm

scbriml wrote:
We can do a comparison when the last A380 is retired from service. Given Airbus is still delivering frames (albeit slowly), it should be some years before we can make that call.


It won’t, apparently, be long to wait. Which airlines will continue A380 ops post-COVID? As the pandemic has dragged on, I am starting to think that there must be doubt that BA and QF will return them to service. The longer the wait for a return to 2019-levels of passenger traffic, the less rosy the future of the A380 is at airlines - even BA and QF, which in the summer, I would have said would keep theirs and return them to service. Now, I am not so certain.

At this point in the pandemic, EK must be questioning its fleet choices and future plans. EK has limped along during the COVID crisis, whereas QR has largely maintained schedules increased market share. QR’s varied fleet has allowed the airline to be agile and flexible in uncertain times; something EK, with its zillions of A380s, definitely has not had. Actually taking deliveries of A380s during the crisis seems madness.

PS I don’t hate the A380, and I am not enjoying watching events, not at all. It’s a wonderful aircraft on which to fly.
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lifecomm
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:53 pm

Strato2 wrote:
vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?


747-8i.


The new Air Force One fleet will be flying for a long time - the current fleet is 30 years.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:08 am

mxaxai wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
vhtje wrote:
The A380 saga is very sad. I am struggling to think of an airliner with such a short lifespan; a sad mix of misjudgement, ego and circumstance. I think even the Lockheed Tri-Star had a a longer career with airlines.

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?

The DC-7. But you were probably thinking of jet airliners, and there is the CV-880/990

The DC-7 was in service as late as 2020, for firefighting operations. Even in cargo operations, it outlived the L-1649.

Many old airliners stayed in service for a surprisingly long time, often either as cargo conversions, government planes, flying charters or bought second-hand in less wealthy countries. None of these roles are really an option for the A380. The DC-8 and 727 could outlive the A380.

I considered mentioning the L-1649, but I consider it a variant of the Connie, not a type of its own like the DC-7.
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lightsaber
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:28 am

vhtje wrote:
scbriml wrote:
We can do a comparison when the last A380 is retired from service. Given Airbus is still delivering frames (albeit slowly), it should be some years before we can make that call.


It won’t, apparently, be long to wait. Which airlines will continue A380 ops post-COVID? As the pandemic has dragged on, I am starting to think that there must be doubt that BA and QF will return them to service. The longer the wait for a return to 2019-levels of passenger traffic, the less rosy the future of the A380 is at airlines - even BA and QF, which in the summer, I would have said would keep theirs and return them to service. Now, I am not so certain.

At this point in the pandemic, EK must be questioning its fleet choices and future plans. EK has limped along during the COVID crisis, whereas QR has largely maintained schedules increased market share. QR’s varied fleet has allowed the airline to be agile and flexible in uncertain times; something EK, with its zillions of A380s, definitely has not had. Actually taking deliveries of A380s during the crisis seems madness.

PS I don’t hate the A380, and I am not enjoying watching events, not at all. It’s a wonderful aircraft on which to fly.

A serious question. When do the numbers of A380s in service prevent adequate batches of parts being manufactured.?

This isn't the A330 (or 1,500 delivered and over 1800 on order), 777 (1649 delivered, over 2,000 in the order book in total), or 787 (almost at a thousand delivered, over 1500 on order) with large numbers of aircraft in use demanding parts. Yes, the A350 is getting scale too, but is.. younger, so 398 delivered and "only" 930 on order with a long sales life ahead. The A380 with 250 and fewer in service, will have very poor part costs. Vendors will not prioritize those parts.

I believe these added costs will further accelerate the retirement.

Lightsaber
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skipness1E
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:33 am

The Tristar lasted long enough with only 250 built. Emirates have 116 A380s with more to come, they'll be flying them for another ten years minimum. BA are surely still paying for some of theirs....
 
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Revelation
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 3:52 am

skipness1E wrote:
BA are surely still paying for some of theirs....

Having to pay for them is not the question, the question is can you make money flying them, enough to overcome the costs, enough to make you write the check when the next heavy maintenance is due? International and business travel will take the longest to bounce back, A380 is mothballed all ready, BA has lots of 77W, 787 and A350 with more appropriate capacity and better economy not to mention their 779 commitment, A380 maintenance will only get more costly over time and economy will never improve.

EK probably has no choice but to make the best out of a bad situation and keep flying them over the next 10 years, but that fleet is going to be a financial lodestone around their neck as they try to compete against other airlines without such an impediment.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 5:22 am

I have similar sentiments, a technical success for all its warts, but really miss read the market it would compete in.

It is interesting to watch EK decide which plane is on which route. Every airline selects the best plane for the route to maximize the profit (reduce the loss?!?). At what point is the A380 more profitable for the trip than the 77W.

In terms of return to service, I am sure there is a declining probability of return the longer stored. RTS is also affected by engine service contracts, lease expiration, and major maintenance. Staffing, currency, training all become larger problems if the entire fleet for the airline is in storage. When was the last EA powered A380 delivered to EK? Would these support contracts go 10 years?




vhtje wrote:

It won’t, apparently, be long to wait. Which airlines will continue A380 ops post-COVID? As the pandemic has dragged on, I am starting to think that there must be doubt that BA and QF will return them to service. The longer the wait for a return to 2019-levels of passenger traffic, the less rosy the future of the A380 is at airlines - even BA and QF, which in the summer, I would have said would keep theirs and return them to service. Now, I am not so certain.

At this point in the pandemic, EK must be questioning its fleet choices and future plans. EK has limped along during the COVID crisis, whereas QR has largely maintained schedules increased market share. QR’s varied fleet has allowed the airline to be agile and flexible in uncertain times; something EK, with its zillions of A380s, definitely has not had. Actually taking deliveries of A380s during the crisis seems madness.

PS I don’t hate the A380, and I am not enjoying watching events, not at all. It’s a wonderful aircraft on which to fly.
 
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747classic
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:29 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
I have similar sentiments, a technical success for all its warts, but really miss read the market it would compete in.

It is interesting to watch EK decide which plane is on which route. Every airline selects the best plane for the route to maximize the profit (reduce the loss?!?). At what point is the A380 more profitable for the trip than the 77W.

In terms of return to service, I am sure there is a declining probability of return the longer stored. RTS is also affected by engine service contracts, lease expiration, and major maintenance. Staffing, currency, training all become larger problems if the entire fleet for the airline is in storage. When was the last EA powered A380 delivered to EK? Would these support contracts go 10 years


A6-EUL , the last EA GP7270 powered EK A380-861 was delivered at December 20th 2016.
A6-EUM, the first RR Trent 972 powered EK A380-842 was delivered at December 28th 2016.
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 6:33 am

Can anyone else think of an airliner with a shorter life?[/quote]

747-8i.[/quote]

The 747-8i may have a shorter production run, but I am not sure if that is true. However the 747-8i, IMO, will most likely have a longer service life flying than the A380. It is very similar to the 747-400 and does not require the special space and handling that the A380 does. The only airline that may chalage the 747-8i is Emeritus and they have more A380 aircraft to use as feed stock.
One question I have do the two different engine types on the A380 have the ability to be used on any other aircraft now such as the 777? If not the engines on the A380 will not have much of a future. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:06 am

No part of the A380 has a future. In 5 years, there will be less than 30 still operating.
 
Speedy752
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:07 am

vhtje wrote:
scbriml wrote:
We can do a comparison when the last A380 is retired from service. Given Airbus is still delivering frames (albeit slowly), it should be some years before we can make that call.


It won’t, apparently, be long to wait. Which airlines will continue A380 ops post-COVID? As the pandemic has dragged on, I am starting to think that there must be doubt that BA and QF will return them to service. The longer the wait for a return to 2019-levels of passenger traffic, the less rosy the future of the A380 is at airlines - even BA and QF, which in the summer, I would have said would keep theirs and return them to service. Now, I am not so certain.

At this point in the pandemic, EK must be questioning its fleet choices and future plans. EK has limped along during the COVID crisis, whereas QR has largely maintained schedules increased market share. QR’s varied fleet has allowed the airline to be agile and flexible in uncertain times; something EK, with its zillions of A380s, definitely has not had. Actually taking deliveries of A380s during the crisis seems madness.

PS I don’t hate the A380, and I am not enjoying watching events, not at all. It’s a wonderful aircraft on which to fly.


Agree, look at how many 77Ws are active vs a380. However for the delivery, it was probably too far built and committed to stop by the time it became such a bad idea. Probably they also regret mixing their fleets engines, since breaking up earlier builds won’t help with later builds and vice versa.
 
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:25 am

seahawk wrote:
No part of the A380 has a future. In 5 years, there will be less than 30 still operating.

How many got scraped so far?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 7:33 am

I think that at this moment, it makes even less sense to spend money to scrap aircraft as airlines have plenty of spare parts.
A380 demand is non-existent at the moment for sure, but so is demand for any in-production aircraft or even used aircraft.

The question is, what's next?
After all, the dinosaur legacy airlines are going to find themselves burdened with debt and if they don't fail, they will find themselves at least seriously constrained on liquidity. Their classic products are old and not very appealing.

This leaves the door open for an entire array of new airlines that will have different strategies and Modus Operandi.
For all we know, in 5 years there could be such huge demand for capacity that "any aircraft will do".

So it's too early to say that A380's have no room in the future skies.
We just don't know.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:05 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I think that at this moment, it makes even less sense to spend money to scrap aircraft as airlines have plenty of spare parts.
A380 demand is non-existent at the moment for sure, but so is demand for any in-production aircraft or even used aircraft.

The question is, what's next?
After all, the dinosaur legacy airlines are going to find themselves burdened with debt and if they don't fail, they will find themselves at least seriously constrained on liquidity. Their classic products are old and not very appealing.

This leaves the door open for an entire array of new airlines that will have different strategies and Modus Operandi.
For all we know, in 5 years there could be such huge demand for capacity that "any aircraft will do".

So it's too early to say that A380's have no room in the future skies.
We just don't know.


So says the eternal A380 optimist. You are living in a fantasy land.
 
AeroMatt7e7
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:23 am

Just a reminder that Airbus & it's original companies were able to support the Concorde fleet effectively for about 25 years. From memory that was at 14 aircraft or less. They only pulled the plug once it would have been reduced to the BA fleet of 6-ish frames (plus donor aircraft).
My guess is the A380 will continue to recieve bespoke support from the airframer while ever a couple of airlines are making money from a small fleet.
 
Noshow
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 8:49 am

Airbus did NOT pull the plug on Concorde. Quite the opposite. They developed modifications, installed and flight tested them to get them certified. Only after operators retired their fleets for commercial reasons Airbus ended the manufacturer's support.
 
AeroMatt7e7
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 12:47 pm

Noshow wrote:
Airbus did NOT pull the plug on Concorde. Quite the opposite. They developed modifications, installed and flight tested them to get them certified. Only after operators retired their fleets for commercial reasons Airbus ended the manufacturer's support.


It was my perception that Airbus was not going to support once Air France withdrew, regardless of the BA loads & profits. That was from my time at the airline & working for suppliers, but I was not in any way involved... so it was just a perception.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 2:02 pm

AeroMatt7e7 wrote:
Just a reminder that Airbus & it's original companies were able to support the Concorde fleet effectively for about 25 years. From memory that was at 14 aircraft or less. They only pulled the plug once it would have been reduced to the BA fleet of 6-ish frames (plus donor aircraft).
My guess is the A380 will continue to recieve bespoke support from the airframer while ever a couple of airlines are making money from a small fleet.


Noshow wrote:
Airbus did NOT pull the plug on Concorde. Quite the opposite. They developed modifications, installed and flight tested them to get them certified. Only after operators retired their fleets for commercial reasons Airbus ended the manufacturer's support.


AeroMatt7e7 wrote:
It was my perception that Airbus was not going to support once Air France withdrew, regardless of the BA loads & profits. That was from my time at the airline & working for suppliers, but I was not in any way involved... so it was just a perception.


Air France decided to cease commercial service (partly due to the crash and another fuel incident after return to service that really spooked them) and therefore British Airways would have had to pay the entire Airbus support costs on their own. These were high enough that it made operating Concorde unviable for BA.

BA had planned to operate Concorde through to around 2008 and had just installed the first stage (seats, carpets etc) of brand new cabins when all this happened. The second stage (new toilets, special lighting) never happened as a result.

Airbus, for what it's worth, were also adamant that no other airline would operate Concorde (such as Virgin wanting to buy the BA planes) and said they would stop supporting the aircraft in October 2003. Once that decision was made, that was it.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Dr. Peters to scrap additional A380s

Mon Dec 21, 2020 4:32 pm

What are the time frames that an OEM is required to support a model, 10 years? Does that requirement come from the FAA or EASA, whichever certifies the plane. Back in the 1970's Fokker bought a number of the produced planes so it could end support- what drove this decision. With cars in the US there is a government law that requires support for a period. Once that period is over, the value of the remaining frames drops quickly. I had an Isuzu Axiom, felt what having a orphan is like - not good.

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