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xwb777
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Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 5:11 pm

In Sir Tim Clark’s latest interview with the aviation journalist Andreas Spaeth, Emirates President have been talking about the A380 and the COVID19 impacts on the airline.

When asked about his retirement, Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum has requested Tim Clark to stay for another year at the airline to help him in managing it.

Regarding the B777 and A380 fleets, the Whole B777 is in the air for passenger flights, cargo only flights and Pax freight flights. The A380 fleet has only 12 active A380 amd five active for cargo flights only. The airline is looking at the possibility of removing seats from the aircraft to help in cargo movements. Tim has stated that the biggest cost the airline is carrying is the cost of the A380s and that the debt has to be serviced. Emirates has still five A380s to be delivered, three next year and three in 2022.

Sir Tim has stated that a number of the laid off crew are coming back soon to rejoin the airline.


More can be read at: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... 380-fleet/
 
Bricktop
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:02 pm

STC wrote:
If we can activate the A380 fleet, which we have to live with, we got no choice, ...

His enthusiasm is barely containable, but one has to say he's right. EK and probably CZ will be the only/last operators of the A380 when this poopstorm ends. Maybe NH to HNL.
And more to come. I look forward to part deux.

Is anyone surprised that you are still Emirates’ President?

Me. It's measure of his character that he's not on a beach somewhere downing Pina Coladas with John Leahy dreaming of what might have been.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:47 pm

This quote from the article is quite telling:
We have these A380s on for long-term debt. That’s one thing. What can we do with them, sell them? No, we can’t. But I am a firm believer in the ability of this aircraft to meet the demand post-pandemic. It may be accelerated or maybe a bit slower, but can I see our network being restored to its former glory? Of course, I can. Why not? The global economy is enormously resilient, it has taken enormous knocks in the past and it has always bounced back. The difference this time is, there won’t be that many competitors left with wide-body equipment to do what we can do. A lot of them are getting rid of their equipment, they want to pull off routes that are marginal, and as that happens, the hub and spoke system strengthens, not the other way round. If we can activate the A380 fleet, which we have to live with, we got no choice, but I think we’ll really have an advantage when we get this Premium Economy cabin going
.

All of the 777's are flying, but only the equivalent of 4 A380's as a rolling 12 are flying but with low utilization. How will EK have an advantage with the A380 compared to the 777 if the 777 is the one preferred today on all its routes.

As has been noted in the other threads, the A380 does not appear to be the best choice economics wise except for a small hand full of routes.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:58 pm

Bricktop wrote:
STC wrote:
If we can activate the A380 fleet, which we have to live with, we got no choice, ...

His enthusiasm is barely containable, but one has to say he's right.


Think about the $billions in CapEx that would be necessary to maintain ~2019 flight count (not seats) with new 787/77X/A350. That's a lot of money Emirates really can't be spending right now.

It's like United going 'Gee, I wish we had 357 A220s right now instead of 737s.' Fantasy.
 
Antarius
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:20 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
This quote from the article is quite telling:
We have these A380s on for long-term debt. That’s one thing. What can we do with them, sell them? No, we can’t. But I am a firm believer in the ability of this aircraft to meet the demand post-pandemic. It may be accelerated or maybe a bit slower, but can I see our network being restored to its former glory? Of course, I can. Why not? The global economy is enormously resilient, it has taken enormous knocks in the past and it has always bounced back. The difference this time is, there won’t be that many competitors left with wide-body equipment to do what we can do. A lot of them are getting rid of their equipment, they want to pull off routes that are marginal, and as that happens, the hub and spoke system strengthens, not the other way round. If we can activate the A380 fleet, which we have to live with, we got no choice, but I think we’ll really have an advantage when we get this Premium Economy cabin going
.

All of the 777's are flying, but only the equivalent of 4 A380's as a rolling 12 are flying but with low utilization. How will EK have an advantage with the A380 compared to the 777 if the 777 is the one preferred today on all its routes.

As has been noted in the other threads, the A380 does not appear to be the best choice economics wise except for a small hand full of routes.


This seems to be the first time he's admitting that the a380 is less than ideal and they're stuck with them. His past interviews are PR pieces trumpeting it's success and how all other airlines are idiots for dumping them.
 
na
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:38 pm

Pretty sure, many EK 777s are also operating on a loss...
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:23 pm

na wrote:
Pretty sure, many EK 777s are also operating on a loss...


Likely not with the variable costs or why even fly if parked is cheaper. It seems that the A380's are in that situation, cost more to fly than the revenues received.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:51 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
All of the 777's are flying, but only the equivalent of 4 A380's as a rolling 12 are flying but with low utilization. How will EK have an advantage with the A380 compared to the 777 if the 777 is the one preferred today on all its routes.

The way I understand him here, they're betting on being able to add significant capacity quickly once the demand recovers while other airlines have permanently retired major fleets and would have to wait until their new 787/A350 get delivered.

Additionally, EK's "single-hub" model does have some advantages over other airlines in time of lower demand. Many airlines benefitted from the 787's & A350's ability to serve thin long-haul routes from their hub, for example LHR-CHS or NRT-DUS. Those routes will be the last to return post-COVID; passengers will instead have to double hub like in the "good old days", flying XXX-LHR-JFK-CHS or YYY-NRT-FRA-DUS. Meanwhile, EK can easily keep serving those smaller stations by downgauging from the A380 to the 77W (or eventually the 787 they have on order).

These are two separate reasons why EK is far from doomed. One is related to their fleet management, and the other relies on the location of DXB. Neither of them requires the A380 or 77W, but that's the aircraft they have to work with now.
 
Antarius
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:00 am

mxaxai wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
All of the 777's are flying, but only the equivalent of 4 A380's as a rolling 12 are flying but with low utilization. How will EK have an advantage with the A380 compared to the 777 if the 777 is the one preferred today on all its routes.

The way I understand him here, they're betting on being able to add significant capacity quickly once the demand recovers while other airlines have permanently retired major fleets and would have to wait until their new 787/A350 get delivered.

Additionally, EK's "single-hub" model does have some advantages over other airlines in time of lower demand. Many airlines benefitted from the 787's & A350's ability to serve thin long-haul routes from their hub, for example LHR-CHS or NRT-DUS. Those routes will be the last to return post-COVID; passengers will instead have to double hub like in the "good old days", flying XXX-LHR-JFK-CHS or YYY-NRT-FRA-DUS. Meanwhile, EK can easily keep serving those smaller stations by downgauging from the A380 to the 77W (or eventually the 787 they have on order).

These are two separate reasons why EK is far from doomed. One is related to their fleet management, and the other relies on the location of DXB. Neither of them requires the A380 or 77W, but that's the aircraft they have to work with now.


The problem with this is, other airlines have these smaller aircraft to rotate onto routes too. Sure, LHR-CHS may not return for a while, but that's a free 787 that BA can rotate on to other city pairs. They have downward flexibility.

EK's issue is the same as it has been since they went to 2 fleet types. Sure, they can scale up, but they don't ever seem to need to. Their fleetwide LF in 2018 and 2019 during peak aviation was under 80%. Its very unlikely that they'll be breaking that number anytime soon, all while operating the most expensive widebody out there.

They certainly aren't doomed. But STC is definitely putting some serious spin on the situation. Its a noose around their neck but he's talking about the softness of the fiber count.
 
TranscendZac
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:24 am

Even when the economy turns around and air travel resumes somewhat normal pre-COVID levels, the A380 isn’t getting any more efficient, all the while, the A350 and 787 fleets seem to be constantly incrementally improving with PIPs, not to mention for larger aircraft needs the 777-9 will be far more efficient. Having the number of A380s on hand that EK has seems to be not just a noose around their neck. Sad because the A380 is such an incredible aircraft.
 
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zeke
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:20 am

xwb777 wrote:
the Whole B777 is in the air for passenger flights, cargo only flights and Pax freight flights.


This is definitely not true, pick random tail registrations and it is evident that they are rotating the 777s through flying and parking, for example have a look at A6-EGQ. I only see around 1/3 of their 777 fleet flying at the moment on FR24.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:52 am

The reality at EK right now is that all all short-term incremental growth will come from adding 380s back to the network. This, much like the gradual restart of the 777 operations, will happen when the aircraft can be operated on a cash-flow positive basis. From my understanding, there is huge discipline to ensure that everything operating is operating on a cash-flow positive basis.

While the actual 777s may not be fully utilized, they've maxed out utilization of the flight deck crew (particularly on the FO side) and can't add any more flights. The non-hub freight flying, long-duty turn-arounds, and long-layovers where flights aren't operating daily, are using up a lot of crew right now.

In the short-term, any incremental growth will occur from adding back 380s where it makes sense to do so. Some 380 flight deck crew that began their unpaid leave in November are going to start their training in February to return to active flying duties shortly thereafter. Empirically, that looks to me like a ramp-up of 380 operations beginning in March.

Given the recent scare that this 'second strain' seems to be having, I suspect we'll likely see a worse January, February, and possibly March, before things start to get better for international travel. But as some of EK's core markets begin to open up, (India, Saudi, South Africa, Australia, Thailand, etc.) I see no reason why we won't see 10 or 15 more 380s activated in fairly short order. Judging by the very healthy load factors on the 380s over the December travel period, and the incremental addition of daily 380 flights that were not previously planned just a few weeks ago (LHR, CDG, MAN), people have been very keen to get back on airplanes when it's feasible for them to do so.

The challenge for EK that will likely arise in the back-half of 2021 will be finding enough flight deck crew to operate the aircraft. By my calculations, there is only enough flight deck crew to operate approx. 30 aircraft. It could be a costly challenge to get retrenched pilots to come back.
 
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:00 am

Airlinerdude wrote:
The reality at EK right now is that all all short-term incremental growth will come from adding 380s back to the network. This, much like the gradual restart of the 777 operations, will happen when the aircraft can be operated on a cash-flow positive basis. From my understanding, there is huge discipline to ensure that everything operating is operating on a cash-flow positive basis.

While the actual 777s may not be fully utilized, they've maxed out utilization of the flight deck crew (particularly on the FO side) and can't add any more flights. The non-hub freight flying, long-duty turn-arounds, and long-layovers where flights aren't operating daily, are using up a lot of crew right now.

In the short-term, any incremental growth will occur from adding back 380s where it makes sense to do so. Some 380 flight deck crew that began their unpaid leave in November are going to start their training in February to return to active flying duties shortly thereafter. Empirically, that looks to me like a ramp-up of 380 operations beginning in March.

Given the recent scare that this 'second strain' seems to be having, I suspect we'll likely see a worse January, February, and possibly March, before things start to get better for international travel. But as some of EK's core markets begin to open up, (India, Saudi, South Africa, Australia, Thailand, etc.) I see no reason why we won't see 10 or 15 more 380s activated in fairly short order. Judging by the very healthy load factors on the 380s over the December travel period, and the incremental addition of daily 380 flights that were not previously planned just a few weeks ago (LHR, CDG, MAN), people have been very keen to get back on airplanes when it's feasible for them to do so.

The challenge for EK that will likely arise in the back-half of 2021 will be finding enough flight deck crew to operate the aircraft. By my calculations, there is only enough flight deck crew to operate approx. 30 aircraft. It could be a costly challenge to get retrenched pilots to come back.

First, you have an interesting summary.

While I know many pilots who changed carriers to non-pilot jobs in previous downturns, I would suspect EK would have little trouble hiring As 380FO, even if it just raiding AirAsia FO (sadly, there are airlines that make EK's conditions look good). I have trouble believing the rest of the world will be in such good economic growth that EK would have trouble putting pilots back in the cockpit.

The A380 needs demand. Unfortunately that means Vaccine. That will take time.

Lightsaber
 
Antarius
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:07 am

zeke wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
the Whole B777 is in the air for passenger flights, cargo only flights and Pax freight flights.


This is definitely not true, pick random tail registrations and it is evident that they are rotating the 777s through flying and parking, for example have a look at A6-EGQ. I only see around 1/3 of their 777 fleet flying at the moment on FR24.


His words "all 777s are operating". I look forward to the creative interpretation of this set of statements.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:32 am

lightsaber wrote:
While I know many pilots who changed carriers to non-pilot jobs in previous downturns, I would suspect EK would have little trouble hiring As 380FO, even if it just raiding AirAsia FO (sadly, there are airlines that make EK's conditions look good). I have trouble believing the rest of the world will be in such good economic growth that EK would have trouble putting pilots back in the cockpit.

The A380 needs demand. Unfortunately that means Vaccine. That will take time.

Lightsaber


Agreed.

I should have been more explicit. To the point of it being a costly exercise, I meant relative to having kept some of the 380 pilots around on unpaid leave, instead of having them made redundant. With the exception of just enough training to keep licenses valid, some existing allowances, and a few other minor costs, the cost of having kept additional pilots was relatively low. Even to bring previously redundant pilots back will cost the company significantly, particularly when you factor in all the training that will be required.

It seemed to me like the latest round of 380 pilot redundancies in November was a near-sighted decision to save the company a few dollars today. What that could cost the company later in 2021 will be interesting to see.
 
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:05 am

Antarius wrote:
His words "all 777s are operating". I look forward to the creative interpretation of this set of statements.


I know what he said, take a look for yourself at any flight radar type site and you can see the evidence for yourself.

I provided the registration of a random 77W aircraft in my post before that hasn’t flown for 3 weeks.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:10 am

Hopefully EK will learn from this experience. Call it the DL golden rule. The way to maintain fleet flexibility and maintain yields is to slightly under-gauge, not over-gauge. Hence DL replaced their inherited NW 744 Trans Pacific fleet with the A359 to use one example. BA has deployed their 787 fleet beautifully in this regard to open up new markets or to down gauge when necessary in off season TATL flying or during the pandemic. EK does not really have that flexibility.

When EK was in discussions to acquire either the A330-900 or the 787-10 I thought that would be a good move. It did not happen and now EK is stuck with large to VLA with little ability to adjust. Again, hopefully they will learn from the experience.
 
Ellofiend
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:17 am

I only just thought of the similarity of Pan Am's 747 order induced bankruptcy with the Emirates A380 fleet with 2020 pandemic. I am wondering if is a comparable circumstance considering that both came at a time of change in both global circumstance and the strategies of airlines in response to improved aircraft capabilities (range, capacity, frequency, demand, etc)
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 7:37 am

I still don't get why EK retired all of their A330s without a direct replacement and went with only two (large) types in the 777s and A380s. I can at least understand retiring the A340s, but the A330s were small enough to give them some flexibility for thinner routes, and even if you take into account FlyDubai, going from 737s to 777s is quite a size difference when in reality there are plenty of routes that are too far or too large for a 737 but not large enough to support a 777. . Even other all-widebody airlines like SQ or TG/CX had A330s/787s/planes of that size, not to mention its ME3 rivals like QR and EY which have narrowbodies. And now this lack of flexibility is biting them
 
texl1649
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 1:03 pm

I’m not sure his optimism is really well founded. Istanbul now, post-pandemic world, will be more available for hub operations than ever, and her position is if anything a possible advantage vs. EK. Setting aside politics, wouldn’t this change pax demand if Turkish (and others) can hub there over the next 5 years in greater capacity with the ‘mega twins’ available now/shortly/sitting in/about the deserts vs. ‘reactivating’ the huge A380 EK fleet?

What are the UAE’s bankruptcy laws; could EK just go through a ‘lite’ reorganization bankruptcy and shed debt/planes un-needed, to emerge a more nimble competitor in a year or two? Their lessors are not ‘Arab’ banks, are they, by and large?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:27 pm

xwb777 wrote:
In Sir Tim Clark’s latest interview with the aviation journalist Andreas Spaeth, Emirates President have been talking about the A380 and the COVID19 impacts on the airline.

Some thoughts:

I was due to leave at the end of August, already two months late from the appointed date, my boss Sheikh Ahmed seemed quite surprised seeing me standing in front of him saying: ‘Well, I’m off now’. He answered: ‘Where are you going?’. I said: ‘I’m leaving now’. He replied: ‘Are you really? No, no, no. Perhaps you could stay some days longer?’. I could see it was difficult for him, so I agreed to stay on until some time next year. When the time is right I should step aside.

This is a clown show. Sensible corporations have transition plans not depending on one aging man's whims and have a set of candidates capable of being replacements waiting in the wings.

But in the passenger business, we are so far at only 18% of what we did last year.

Suggests that load factors are poor across the 777s that are all flying.

But our biggest problem is the carrying costs of the A380s. The debt has to be serviced. We’ve got to pay the monthly payments of interest.

I wonder who decided to order so many of them? :scratchchin:

Seems the strategy of the STC Era has been to saturate the market regardless of downside risk. Well, they had hit saturation with diminishing load factors pre-covid, and now you have the ultimate black swan event showing what the downsides of being too aggressive on the upside are.

Tim, find yourself a mirror!

But I am a firm believer in the ability of this aircraft to meet the demand post-pandemic. It may be accelerated or maybe a bit slower, but can I see our network being restored to its former glory? Of course, I can. Why not? The global economy is enormously resilient, it has taken enormous knocks in the past and it has always bounced back.

Translation: We've painted ourselves into a corner and the only way out is to assume a return to former glory days, so let's go with that...

Sure, competition is weakened too, but EK has the same old problems, over-investment in a huge yet not particularly efficient plane that only makes money when it flies full. There will be more than enough surviving competition, most of it with more efficient equipment, fighting for a smaller number of passengers overall. Pax in the post covid world will prefer hub bypass even more than in the past, even if that means flying A321neo on routes that used to support 777.

na wrote:
Pretty sure, many EK 777s are also operating on a loss...

Seems that way.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:36 pm

texl1649 wrote:
I’m not sure his optimism is really well founded. Istanbul now, post-pandemic world, will be more available for hub operations than ever, and her position is if anything a possible advantage vs. EK. Setting aside politics, wouldn’t this change pax demand if Turkish (and others) can hub there over the next 5 years in greater capacity with the ‘mega twins’ available now/shortly/sitting in/about the deserts vs. ‘reactivating’ the huge A380 EK fleet?

What are the UAE’s bankruptcy laws; could EK just go through a ‘lite’ reorganization bankruptcy and shed debt/planes un-needed, to emerge a more nimble competitor in a year or two? Their lessors are not ‘Arab’ banks, are they, by and large?

Second part first, there is no light bankruptcy with billions in due aircraft payments. More than likely, the aircraft debt is under UK law and there is no easy out.

I agree competition is going to be brutal for EK. New longer range twins, in particular narrowbodies,will allow a high O&D airport such as IST great expansion opportunities. ADD will also grow. Jarkarta, Navi Mumbai, and other airports give bypass opportunity.

EK is trying to adapt. The reality is, they need a built out DWC, but where are the funds?

Lightsaber
 
Antarius
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:37 pm

Revelation wrote:
Some thoughts:

I was due to leave at the end of August, already two months late from the appointed date, my boss Sheikh Ahmed seemed quite surprised seeing me standing in front of him saying: ‘Well, I’m off now’. He answered: ‘Where are you going?’. I said: ‘I’m leaving now’. He replied: ‘Are you really? No, no, no. Perhaps you could stay some days longer?’. I could see it was difficult for him, so I agreed to stay on until some time next year. When the time is right I should step aside.

This is a clown show. Sensible corporations have transition plans not depending on one aging man's whims and have a set of candidates capable of being replacements waiting in the wings.


Oh absolutely. The fact that Ahmed Al Maktoum didn't know his CEO was leaving shows exactly what kind of mickey mouse club the top is.
 
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zeke
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:47 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
I still don't get why EK retired all of their A330s without a direct replacement and went with only two (large) types in the 777s and A380s.


From memory there were a few things coming to a head at once, part of it was Fly Dubai, another the first A350 cancellation, runway works down to single runway at DXB, and slot constraints.

Revelation wrote:
This is a clown show. Sensible corporations have transition plans not depending on one aging man's whims and have a set of candidates capable of being replacements waiting in the wings.


I think the description is somewhat embellished, seems to be a very polite politically correct description, and probably a reason why he has lasted so long in his position. His boss will be reading the article.

Revelation wrote:
Sure, competition is weakened too, but EK has the same old problems, over-investment in a huge yet not particularly efficient plane that only makes money when it flies full. There will be more than enough surviving competition, most of it with more efficient equipment, fighting for a smaller number of passengers overall. Pax in the post covid world will prefer hub bypass even more than in the past, even if that means flying A321neo on routes that used to support 777.


One advantage you don’t take about is the passenger to crew efficiency large aircraft have. You will be surprised how many peers of my era will not be returning back to aviation.
 
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:50 pm

zeke wrote:

One advantage you don’t take about is the passenger to crew efficiency large aircraft have. You will be surprised how many peers of my era will not be returning back to aviation.

That can pose an issue for airlines highly reliant on expat labor though, especially ones with less than stellar reputations (although EK is no QR)...
 
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zeke
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:17 pm

Polot wrote:
zeke wrote:
That can pose an issue for airlines highly reliant on expat labor though, especially ones with less than stellar reputations (although EK is no QR)...


Not sure about that, I was reading AA had something like 1000 early retirements this year. Sure airlines have retired aircraft as well, when it picks up the resources will not be there.

EK literally said goodbye to thousands of pilots., it is not a 2 second process to get people into the aircraft.
 
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:38 pm

zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:
zeke wrote:
That can pose an issue for airlines highly reliant on expat labor though, especially ones with less than stellar reputations (although EK is no QR)...


Not sure about that, I was reading AA had something like 1000 early retirements this year. Sure airlines have retired aircraft as well, when it picks up the resources will not be there.

EK literally said goodbye to thousands of pilots., it is not a 2 second process to get people into the aircraft.

Passenger to crew efficiency being a major factor would imply that pilots are in short supply and are in demand, ie need to maximize number of passengers you can fly with a given crew. That makes it harder for companies reliant on expat labor to staff without making their compensation even more attractive (re:expensive for company) as there will be more opportunities in the pilot’s home market.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:16 pm

Polot wrote:
zeke wrote:
Polot wrote:


Not sure about that, I was reading AA had something like 1000 early retirements this year. Sure airlines have retired aircraft as well, when it picks up the resources will not be there.

EK literally said goodbye to thousands of pilots., it is not a 2 second process to get people into the aircraft.

Passenger to crew efficiency being a major factor would imply that pilots are in short supply and are in demand, ie need to maximize number of passengers you can fly with a given crew. That makes it harder for companies reliant on expat labor to staff without making their compensation even more attractive (re:expensive for company) as there will be more opportunities in the pilot’s home market.

Unfortunately, the opposite. So many pilots are looking for work, the ME3 will have no trouble hiring.

For example, the EU pilot job market has thousands looking for employment:
https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/h ... 46.article

4,000 pilots applied at XOJET:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/an ... r-BB1c48uQ

When EK wants pilots, they will be available. Only when the boom returns will EK have to sweeten the offer. That will happen. If EK builds up their pilot academy, it will be an easy transition.

Short term, pilots need a job to work towards the job they want.

EK has an issue of the wrong fleet mix. Getting people back doing mass travel is required to fill the A380s. The lack of expansion room at DXB creates a poor opportunity.

Lightsaber
 
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zeke
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
For example, the EU pilot job market has thousands looking for employment:


That is at the moment, however when things pickup how many people are going to want to move to DXB given the treatment employees received in the last 12 months.
 
oldJoe
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:56 pm

zeke wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
For example, the EU pilot job market has thousands looking for employment:


That is at the moment, however when things pickup how many people are going to want to move to DXB given the treatment employees received in the last 12 months.


:checkmark: yes not many and let`s not forget the type rating when pilots knows the future of the A380
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:24 pm

oldJoe wrote:
zeke wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
For example, the EU pilot job market has thousands looking for employment:


That is at the moment, however when things pickup how many people are going to want to move to DXB given the treatment employees received in the last 12 months.


:checkmark: yes not many and let`s not forget the type rating when pilots knows the future of the A380

So then we discuss how one perceives the rate of growth post the current crisis. If one believes it will return to being as it was before, Emirates has destroyed their reputation for recruiting new pilots and they will be in trouble.

I personally do my own estimates. I enjoy simulating many things and one is economic growth. My estimates do not have Emirates having any issue with pilots for at least 3 to 4 years from now.

I keep reading in different threads how various airlines will soon have problems with pilots. That might come true, but not for years and for now they hire. Emirates is capably managed, if given enough time, they will find enough pilots if given enough time.

Lightsaber
 
Opus99
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:34 am

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... a380-saga/

Part 2 of the interview up online.

“Our original contract said December 2019 for the delivery of the first 777-9 (below), which I knew was too early, then it became June 2020, then it became 2021, now it’s June 2022. So it’s now two years late at the minimum. Now the delay actually even suits everybody. I told Boeing that they have to deliver aircraft to us that are up to their contracted specifications and deliver the promised performance in both airframe and engines – I’d be very happy. If they don’t do that, unlike in the past, we are not ready to take the aircraft and be told ‘we’ll fix it later’. That isn’t going to happen. They have to deliver according to specifications or don’t deliver at all. The A380 had already come in with 6.8 tons overweight and we had to live with that. We didn’t let Airbus get away with it on the A350, which was so overweight again initially that we canceled the contract for 70 aircraft.”
 
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scbriml
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:53 am

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emirates-chief-lyrical-premum-economy-sad-a380-saga/

Part 2 of the interview up online.

“Our original contract said December 2019 for the delivery of the first 777-9 (below), which I knew was too early, then it became June 2020, then it became 2021, now it’s June 2022. So it’s now two years late at the minimum. Now the delay actually even suits everybody. I told Boeing that they have to deliver aircraft to us that are up to their contracted specifications and deliver the promised performance in both airframe and engines – I’d be very happy. If they don’t do that, unlike in the past, we are not ready to take the aircraft and be told ‘we’ll fix it later’. That isn’t going to happen. They have to deliver according to specifications or don’t deliver at all. The A380 had already come in with 6.8 tons overweight and we had to live with that. We didn’t let Airbus get away with it on the A350, which was so overweight again initially that we canceled the contract for 70 aircraft.”


Depending which source you read, the 777X is not expected by Emirates until 2023.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ps-to-2023

Those A350’s were so bad, Emirates went back and ordered 50.

Likewise, they were so horrified by the weight of the A380, that they kept buying more.
 
Opus99
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:00 am

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emirates-chief-lyrical-premum-economy-sad-a380-saga/

Part 2 of the interview up online.

“Our original contract said December 2019 for the delivery of the first 777-9 (below), which I knew was too early, then it became June 2020, then it became 2021, now it’s June 2022. So it’s now two years late at the minimum. Now the delay actually even suits everybody. I told Boeing that they have to deliver aircraft to us that are up to their contracted specifications and deliver the promised performance in both airframe and engines – I’d be very happy. If they don’t do that, unlike in the past, we are not ready to take the aircraft and be told ‘we’ll fix it later’. That isn’t going to happen. They have to deliver according to specifications or don’t deliver at all. The A380 had already come in with 6.8 tons overweight and we had to live with that. We didn’t let Airbus get away with it on the A350, which was so overweight again initially that we canceled the contract for 70 aircraft.”


Depending which source you read, the 777X is not expected by Emirates until 2023.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ps-to-2023

Those A350’s were so bad, Emirates went back and ordered 50.

Likewise, they were so horrified by the weight of the A380, that they kept buying more.

STC for you!

EDIT: I still think Delivery for emirates is 23 but maybe EIS for other airlines is June 22
 
oschkosch
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:12 am

Opus99 wrote:
EDIT: I still think Delivery for emirates is 23 but maybe EIS for other airlines is June 22


I would say that 2021 will still be rather "fluid" in terms of possible changes and more push-backs for later delivery or EIS.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:09 pm

But when we took the first aircraft in July 2008 and before the pandemic meltdown, 80% of our profits were coming from the A380. We at Emirates never had a problem with filling it or extracting the use that we wanted.


This is an interesting quote. I know many on these threads often speculated that the 380 wasn't profitable in Emirates' operations, but this seems to say otherwise. That being said, it would be neat to know what the ROI is of the 380 versus the 777 and how this compares.
 
xwb777
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:45 pm

Tim Clark Interview: Part 2

Main points:
- The PE will be installed on all aircraft on order, A380s, A350s, B789s and B779s.
-the new PE seats are Recaro sleeperette seats which were redesigned.
- 52-56 seats will be on the two-class A380s.
-Emirates will receive its first B779 in June 2022.

Link: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... a380-saga/
 
TObound
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:13 pm

Something that has never made sense to me is the large gap in their future fleet.

I assume the 779s replace the 380s. The 359s seem small to replace the 77Ws. And quite the gap between the 359 and 779. Always wondered why they never went with the 35J.

The 789 is also curious. Is it going to be a 250 seat aircraft for them. Seems small. Even in the future downsize scenario. Presumably, the 78J in 300 seats would be better for them? And the 789 and 359 both seem way too close in capacity for them.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:20 pm

xwb777 wrote:
- The PE will be installed on all aircraft on order, A380s, A350s, B789s and B779s.


How many are on order. I think on all future deliveries is the proper wording as on order at EK doesn't mean actual delivery with all U-turns.
 
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Polot
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:22 pm

TObound wrote:
Something that has never made sense to me is the large gap in their future fleet.

I assume the 779s replace the 380s. The 359s seem small to replace the 77Ws. And quite the gap between the 359 and 779. Always wondered why they never went with the 35J.

The 789 is also curious. Is it going to be a 250 seat aircraft for them. Seems small. Even in the future downsize scenario. Presumably, the 78J in 300 seats would be better for them? And the 789 and 359 both seem way too close in capacity for them.

The 779 was primarily going to be replace the 77W (it’s not that much bigger, especially now that a new class is being added onto the planes), A359 be their new long range smaller aircraft, and 787 for regional role (similar role that the A333’s had). EK was always wanting a A380neo to replace A380s.

With how things stand now, in the future the combined VLA fleet (77W & A380 right now) will be smaller than present. 779s will be replacing both 77Ws and A380s depending on route requirement, and of course A359s and 787s will replace 77Ws that may be abused today.
 
brindabella
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:40 pm

Antarius wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
All of the 777's are flying, but only the equivalent of 4 A380's as a rolling 12 are flying but with low utilization. How will EK have an advantage with the A380 compared to the 777 if the 777 is the one preferred today on all its routes.

The way I understand him here, they're betting on being able to add significant capacity quickly once the demand recovers while other airlines have permanently retired major fleets and would have to wait until their new 787/A350 get delivered.

Additionally, EK's "single-hub" model does have some advantages over other airlines in time of lower demand. Many airlines benefitted from the 787's & A350's ability to serve thin long-haul routes from their hub, for example LHR-CHS or NRT-DUS. Those routes will be the last to return post-COVID; passengers will instead have to double hub like in the "good old days", flying XXX-LHR-JFK-CHS or YYY-NRT-FRA-DUS. Meanwhile, EK can easily keep serving those smaller stations by downgauging from the A380 to the 77W (or eventually the 787 they have on order).

These are two separate reasons why EK is far from doomed. One is related to their fleet management, and the other relies on the location of DXB. Neither of them requires the A380 or 77W, but that's the aircraft they have to work with now.


The problem with this is, other airlines have these smaller aircraft to rotate onto routes too. Sure, LHR-CHS may not return for a while, but that's a free 787 that BA can rotate on to other city pairs. They have downward flexibility.

EK's issue is the same as it has been since they went to 2 fleet types. Sure, they can scale up, but they don't ever seem to need to. Their fleetwide LF in 2018 and 2019 during peak aviation was under 80%. Its very unlikely that they'll be breaking that number anytime soon, all while operating the most expensive widebody out there.

They certainly aren't doomed. But STC is definitely putting some serious spin on the situation. Its a noose around their neck but he's talking about the softness of the fiber count.


EK's issue is the same as it has been since they went to 2 fleet types. Sure, they can scale up, but they don't ever seem to need to.


:yes:

Classic.

And it was STC ignoring just this that led to the current conundrum.

cheers
 
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par13del
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:32 pm

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emirates-chief-lyrical-premum-economy-sad-a380-saga/

Part 2 of the interview up online.

“Our original contract said December 2019 for the delivery of the first 777-9 (below), which I knew was too early, then it became June 2020, then it became 2021, now it’s June 2022. So it’s now two years late at the minimum. Now the delay actually even suits everybody. I told Boeing that they have to deliver aircraft to us that are up to their contracted specifications and deliver the promised performance in both airframe and engines – I’d be very happy. If they don’t do that, unlike in the past, we are not ready to take the aircraft and be told ‘we’ll fix it later’. That isn’t going to happen. They have to deliver according to specifications or don’t deliver at all. The A380 had already come in with 6.8 tons overweight and we had to live with that. We didn’t let Airbus get away with it on the A350, which was so overweight again initially that we canceled the contract for 70 aircraft.”


Depending which source you read, the 777X is not expected by Emirates until 2023.
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ps-to-2023

Those A350’s were so bad, Emirates went back and ordered 50.

Likewise, they were so horrified by the weight of the A380, that they kept buying more.

I was under he impression that Airbus was continually updating the A380 - wing twist etc - and the A350 was also being updated, higher MTOW for better performance etc etc etc.
Wonder if he will claim credit for the updates to those a/c?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:00 pm

Polot wrote:
TObound wrote:
Something that has never made sense to me is the large gap in their future fleet.

I assume the 779s replace the 380s. The 359s seem small to replace the 77Ws. And quite the gap between the 359 and 779. Always wondered why they never went with the 35J.

The 789 is also curious. Is it going to be a 250 seat aircraft for them. Seems small. Even in the future downsize scenario. Presumably, the 78J in 300 seats would be better for them? And the 789 and 359 both seem way too close in capacity for them.

The 779 was primarily going to be replace the 77W (it’s not that much bigger, especially now that a new class is being added onto the planes), A359 be their new long range smaller aircraft, and 787 for regional role (similar role that the A333’s had). EK was always wanting a A380neo to replace A380s.

With how things stand now, in the future the combined VLA fleet (77W & A380 right now) will be smaller than present. 779s will be replacing both 77Ws and A380s depending on route requirement, and of course A359s and 787s will replace 77Ws that may be abused today.


It does beg the question 'Why not 787-10s?' if the role of 787s is regional/conceptual A333 replacement where super range isn't required.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:17 pm

scbriml wrote:
Those A350’s were so bad, Emirates went back and ordered 50.

Likewise, they were so horrified by the weight of the A380, that they kept buying more.

I'm not sure why you want to apply this kind of spin, what STC said was accurate.

The 2008 A380s were overweight and had reliability issues, and STC regrets accepting them in that condition.

Why he didn't do anything about it at the time probably has lots of answers. EK was an emerging airline back then. They had spent a lot getting ready for the A380 and wanted to get real world experience with them. They probably didn't think they were in a position to push back too hard. It wasn't obvious at the time that they were going to end up operating 120+ of them nor becoming the world's largest 777 operator either so they had little clout. Now, that's changed.

With the A350 we didn't know the reason for cancellation at the time, but it is clear a 2023 A350 is a much better plane than a 2014 A350. No knock on Team A, we can say the same for 787. At the time the spin was the cancellation was "after a fleet requirements review" ( ref: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-27791448 ) so we have STC baring his chest a bit too.

The point is the later A350s and 787s are better than the ones earlier on order and it seems STC learned a lesson from the earlier A380s. Lots of other airlines refuse to buy early in the production run. Problems with MAX and GTF show that may have been the right thing to do. Hope Boeing is learning from what is happening from 779.

xwb777 wrote:
Tim Clark Interview: Part 2

Main points:
- The PE will be installed on all aircraft on order, A380s, A350s, B789s and B779s.
-the new PE seats are Recaro sleeperette seats which were redesigned.
- 52-56 seats will be on the two-class A380s.
-Emirates will receive its first B779 in June 2022.

Link: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/emi ... a380-saga/

Right, but also he doubles down on:

People like British Airways should have had a minimum of 50 or 60 A380s and being launch customers, airlines such as Lufthansa should have had the same number of A380s as they had 747s, they didn’t.

I bet you there are executives in London and Frankfort who are damn glad they did not buy 50 or 60 A380s. Or, to paraphrase Alan Joyce, you'd have to be pretty darn drunk to buy more A380s.
 
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Polot
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:30 pm

It’s important to remember the original A350 order was to serve a different purpose than the current A350 order.

Originally EK wanted the A350 as a regional plane to replace the A330/A343s/77E/773As. They were therefore then upset when Airbus bumped up the A35J’s capability in 2011 or whenever to better match the 77W, as it made the plane worse for regional routes but still not good enough (in EK’s eyes) to replace the 77W (especially since EK was always a 10Y operator). Hence the cancelation of the order and order of 779 which they viewed as a better 77W replacement. A smaller long range aircraft wasn’t really on their radar, they were going all in on the 77W and the A380, and they decided to just abuse their long haul planes for the regional role especially as space at DXB became at a premium and it was clear DWC will not be built up as originally projected.

Today that has changed, and the A350 order is not for regional purposes, but to open up new long range routes where the 777(W and X) and A380 are too big. The 787 is to be used for the original A350’s role.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:01 pm

Polot wrote:
It’s important to remember the original A350 order was to serve a different purpose than the current A350 order.

Originally EK wanted the A350 as a regional plane to replace the A330/A343s/77E/773As. They were therefore then upset when Airbus bumped up the A35J’s capability in 2011 or whenever to better match the 77W, as it made the plane worse for regional routes but still not good enough (in EK’s eyes) to replace the 77W (especially since EK was always a 10Y operator). Hence the cancelation of the order and order of 779 which they viewed as a better 77W replacement. A smaller long range aircraft wasn’t really on their radar, they were going all in on the 77W and the A380, and they decided to just abuse their long haul planes for the regional role especially as space at DXB became at a premium and it was clear DWC will not be built up as originally projected.

Today that has changed, and the A350 order is not for regional purposes, but to open up new long range routes where the 777(W and X) and A380 are too big. The 787 is to be used for the original A350’s role.

That is a great summary. I would add the A350 has the role of increasing the profitable cash flow per flight in right-sizing flights that today might be oversized on the A380. I see, for EK, some continued role for the A380, but with a smaller number for the fleet. For example, LHR, SYD, and limited access rights destinations (China, Japan) will produce an overall higher network profit if these restricted destinations are severed by the A380. However, I could see India being more fragmented (The A380 really isn't efficient for shorter flights) or served with more frequency as EK is limited by a passenger cap, not a quantity of flights cap.

Do not forget the 777x. While EK seems to be delaying that capital expenditure, the economics on longer routes will displace some A380 flights to North America (but probably not Canada, which is flight capped) and probably to South America too. The engines on the 777x are a full generation newer than the A380 engines and that impacts the flight economics (plus the wing and subsystems).

Sir Tim Clark has shown an amazing ability to adapt ahead of the competition. He over-bought the A380, but it isn't like he hasn't recovered from prior purchasing mistakes (e.g., cancelled the A346 and pivoted to the 77W). The bar on the A380 will still sell J seats. There will just be fewer in the EK fleet, with the reduction timed with allowed lease returns.

I will be curious how long the A380 remains in EK's fleet, but that is a long term discussion that goes beyond Tim Clark's tenure.

Lightsaber

Lightsaber
 
Sokes
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 4:23 pm

Antarius wrote:
Revelation wrote:
This is a clown show. Sensible corporations have transition plans not depending on one aging man's whims and have a set of candidates capable of being replacements waiting in the wings.


Oh absolutely. The fact that Ahmed Al Maktoum didn't know his CEO was leaving shows exactly what kind of mickey mouse club the top is.

Agreed.
One would expect a retirement party with a woman jumping out of a cake and a choir singing the coconut song.
https://youtu.be/GSyP7xrxLME
 
TObound
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:19 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Polot wrote:
TObound wrote:
Something that has never made sense to me is the large gap in their future fleet.

I assume the 779s replace the 380s. The 359s seem small to replace the 77Ws. And quite the gap between the 359 and 779. Always wondered why they never went with the 35J.

The 789 is also curious. Is it going to be a 250 seat aircraft for them. Seems small. Even in the future downsize scenario. Presumably, the 78J in 300 seats would be better for them? And the 789 and 359 both seem way too close in capacity for them.

The 779 was primarily going to be replace the 77W (it’s not that much bigger, especially now that a new class is being added onto the planes), A359 be their new long range smaller aircraft, and 787 for regional role (similar role that the A333’s had). EK was always wanting a A380neo to replace A380s.

With how things stand now, in the future the combined VLA fleet (77W & A380 right now) will be smaller than present. 779s will be replacing both 77Ws and A380s depending on route requirement, and of course A359s and 787s will replace 77Ws that may be abused today.


It does beg the question 'Why not 787-10s?' if the role of 787s is regional/conceptual A333 replacement where super range isn't required.


This.

Fitting out the 789 in 4-class would mean less than 250 seats at typical EK seat pitch. Even 3-class (J/W/Y) would be 280-290 for them. Don't see why they didn't go with the 78J. And save the 359s for ULH. Though at this point, they'd arguably have a good case to cooperate with Qantas and push for a Project Sunrise 35J for their ULH fleet.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 5:46 pm

brindabella wrote:
...
And it was STC ignoring just this that led to the current conundrum.

cheers


He was also demanding other airline managers to follow his successful model, fortunately none did even with pressure from all av pundits.
 
Vladex
Posts: 544
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Re: Tim Clark lastest interview Part1: The A380 and business impact.

Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:10 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
brindabella wrote:
...
And it was STC ignoring just this that led to the current conundrum.

cheers


He was also demanding other airline managers to follow his successful model, fortunately none did even with pressure from all av pundits.


Other airlines like Qatar, Etihad, Cathay and Norwegian were losing money way more before 2020 so you don't have a point. If those had A380's or more of them instead of vanilla types and confusing options , they could be profitable like Emirates was.

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