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Opus99
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sun Jan 03, 2021 12:43 pm

reidar76 wrote:
Can we conclude that the first 777-9 will enter service in about two years time? Give or take a few months.

From all the sources quoted in this tread, the time frame for service entry could be late 2022 or early 2023, both for the four door pairs and five door pairs variants.

I will not be surprised if there would be a further delay. The certification process might not go as Boeing expects. Maybe EASA will conduct a full review and demand that the 777-9 must be certified as new aircraft type. With grandfathering out the window, I would reckon Boeing would have to redesign several parts of the 777-9, thereby delaying service entry. Since all airlines that have the 777-9 on order plans to operate these in EU airspace, the EASAs decision will be important.

Well. Boeing is expecting TIA soon and that officially starts certification tests for the FAA. If EASA wanted that we would hear it. Also Patrick Ky said 777X certification will change slightly but it won’t affect the timing of the certification process. He said that last month or so.. so this scenario is slim
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:05 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Different door counts don’t prove anything without a source, are you sure what you are seeing are all EK aircraft?


Well, pics are there freely to be the seen. Not sure I cam add anything else's since.

The actual interview with Mr Clark with airline Ratings is clear. EIS 2022.

If anyone has Mr Tim sayin different in last 2 weeks, bring forth. I'm out.


I think you're confused. The new W product was meant to debut on the 777-9 when it was originally supposed to be delivered in late 2019 (subsequently pushed to June 2020). A 3-class 779 means J/W/Y; a 4-class 779 means F/J/W/Y.

See Sam Chui's article in 2019:

Hit by potential Boeing 777X delays, Emirates is reportedly planning to launch Premium Economy on their A380 fleet instead.

Emirates was supposed to receive their first Boeing 777X by June 2020, where they would unveil the new cabin product. Unfortunately for travellers and Emirates, this is no longer an option.


https://samchui.com/2019/09/23/emirates ... _H3LulKi3I

The aero.de article was from an interview conducted in the first half of December. I suspect sometime between then and when ET reported, EK was informed of a delay of the aircraft to 2023.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:13 pm

Polot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Different door counts don’t prove anything without a source, are you sure what you are seeing are all EK aircraft? TBH I would have thought EK would take 4 class 779s first, you are saying they will take some with F, J, Y? I would say EK will take 4 class and 2 class ones, maybe some with J, W, Y?

Well they do have EK’s flag logo on the winglets, and you can see the basic tail livery:



Nothing is technically confirmed, but the fact that we are seeing EK taking some planes with the optional 5th door and some without does point to different seating configurations...

It’s entirely possible the initial 779s won’t have W. We don’t know what the 779 W seat will be (EK has only shown A380’s, it may have to be modified to fit in 777) and when the seats will be ready and delivered for installation. EK may have already ordered the seats/cabin fittings for the first 779s without W and too late to modify now. Especially since delivery was initially anticipated to be sometime in 2020.


Thanks, thats the first photos i have seen. Surely even if first delivery is in 2022 they have had time to modify the order for seats given it was meant to debut on the 77X in 2020.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:35 am

Isn't the different amount of doors due to 777-x8 and 9 variants?
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:34 am

Airlinerdude wrote:
https://samchui.com/2019/09/23/emirates-to-launch-premium-economy-on-airbus-a380/#.X_H3LulKi3I

The aero.de article was from an interview conducted in the first half of December. I suspect sometime between then and when ET reported, EK was informed of a delay of the aircraft to 2023.


It could be that Emirates was informed of a delay in receiving the aircraft, or that Emirates informed Boeing of intention to delay accepting the aircraft. Either is possible, and the wording given does not indicate which is the case. I'm rather skeptical Boeing is extending the certification timeline out to 3+ years after first flight when things seem to be going reasonably well nearly a year into flight testing. There's more time left between now and 2023 than the entire 787 flight test program, when things clearly did not go well (in-flight electrical fire, assembly problems, and configuration changes to address weight).

The FAA could have added enough conditions to the certification that the timeline had to be extended yet again, but I wouldn't expect a revised timeline to be known yet if that is the case.

It's also possible Emirates' press release about the seats had poor wording that is being misinterpreted. It would be a bit odd for Emirates to announce a delay driven by Boeing, instead of Boeing doing so. It would seem very odd to do so in passing in a press release about seats for a completely different aircraft. It makes me wonder if all they meant to indicate is that the premium economy seats won't be available to book on the 777X until 2023, rather than that the 777X won't be ready for EIS until 2023.

The press release is here, by the way, since Executive Traveler did not bother to link it, and no one else has looked up the original source for the 2023 date yet:
https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... ll-cabins/

Emirates’ premium economy seats will also be installed on some of its Boeing 777X aircraft which are only due to join the fleet in 2023.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:38 am

oschkosch wrote:
Isn't the different amount of doors due to 777-x8 and 9 variants?


The first -8 hasn't been built yet (and it remains to be seen if they will ever build it).
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 11:35 am

Chances are, that Emirates (and other 77X customers) will take the aircraft rather slow. So EK will get aircraft from 2022 onwards. Now fleet planing might not need premium economy seating on the first few aircraft as they will be deployed on routes where premium economy is not necessary and desired.
I do not think the 77X will be more delayed and they will roll out at some point in 2022 to customers, but most customers will take them on really slow and not all of the already build ones at one time. Most airlines will not be able to absorb more than 1 77X every other month, most probably while returning some leased aircraft.
Boeing will sit on some 77X for a while, build but with deferred delivery. EK seems to install no premium economy on the first few. They might be destined to rather short routes with high density configuration (Arabian peninsula, India, some destinations in Africa).
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:18 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
. It makes me wonder if all they meant to indicate is that the premium economy seats won't be available to book on the 777X until 2023, rather than that the 777X won't be ready for EIS until 2023.



Thank yous sir.

This was point I making in reference to the press release which none understandings but you.

EIS for 777X EK is unchanged. Summer 22.
 
VV
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:32 pm

VSMUT wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
Isn't the different amount of doors due to 777-x8 and 9 variants?


The first -8 hasn't been built yet (and it remains to be seen if they will ever build it).


Boeing has not announced the firming of 777-8 configuration yet.

Not sure what it means.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:42 pm

VV wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
Isn't the different amount of doors due to 777-x8 and 9 variants?


The first -8 hasn't been built yet (and it remains to be seen if they will ever build it).


Boeing has not announced the firming of 777-8 configuration yet.

Not sure what it means.


It means they haven't decided what it will look like yet. Probably mostly how the doors and cabin will be configured at this point.
 
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Polot
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:56 pm

VSMUT wrote:
VV wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

The first -8 hasn't been built yet (and it remains to be seen if they will ever build it).


Boeing has not announced the firming of 777-8 configuration yet.

Not sure what it means.


It means they haven't decided what it will look like yet. Probably mostly how the doors and cabin will be configured at this point.

I’m pretty Boeing knows how the doors and cabin will be on a 778. It’s more what exact MTOW, fuel capacity, etc that they should target for maximum sales potential.
 
744SPX
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:15 pm

Even if it's only as a freighter, I'm pretty sure the 777-8 will be built.
 
NZ321
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:53 pm

Will the 778 even get built and certified? Who wants it? Projected future orders? Is this really the 77F replacement?
 
ILikeTrains
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:01 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Will the 778 even get built and certified? Who wants it? Projected future orders? Is this really the 77F replacement?


I imagine it will be built, even if most of the sales being the next generation 77F.

This is like 6-7 years old, but the 777-8 was originally “Tim Clarks Plane.” The idea being Tim Clark wanted a 777 variant to fly DXB-LAX with a full payload of pax and a belly full of cargo. I’m an optimist, i think the 778 will outsell the 77L, even if just by 1 unit. Post-covid the industry will be different, and maybe when recovered, P2P flying will emphasize the need for high pax and cargo.
 
Noshow
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:21 pm

I think there is one variant that might be more successful on the long run that is not mentioned yet: Some 777-10. After the 747 and the A380 there will be a need for big aircraft with very low seat costs for the post corona market. Hubs will continue to exist. Serving routes with parallel mid sized twins by several competitors is a thing of the past. But a low cost monster twin like a -10 will work.
Let's talk again in some years and see if it happens. Think the mother of all 787-10. No competitor.
 
xwb565
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:28 am

We may hear more during the Jan 27 Boeing results release

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 90.article

Recent comments suggest that Emirates Airline now expects to receive its first Boeing 777-9 in 2023, a development that raises questions about delivery timelines and launch customers.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:58 am

ILikeTrains wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
Will the 778 even get built and certified? Who wants it? Projected future orders? Is this really the 77F replacement?


I imagine it will be built, even if most of the sales being the next generation 77F.

This is like 6-7 years old, but the 777-8 was originally “Tim Clarks Plane.” The idea being Tim Clark wanted a 777 variant to fly DXB-LAX with a full payload of pax and a belly full of cargo. I’m an optimist, i think the 778 will outsell the 77L, even if just by 1 unit. Post-covid the industry will be different, and maybe when recovered, P2P flying will emphasize the need for high pax and cargo.

I'm surprised no 777xF launch. If nothing else, to generate enough sales to give confidence in the production line staying open.

I see a use for a 778 pax version. The time to first sale will be tough.

Lightsaber
 
XT6Wagon
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:24 am

787F is the bigger missing model IMO. I'd expect the 777F to not launch till they get hard data on production costs.
 
ILikeTrains
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:04 pm

I feel like the 787F won’t succeed. Not enough payload for how much space it takes up on the ramp (similar to A330F). Maybe a folding wingtip to help, or possibly an increased MTOW (would probs need a new landing gear).

But thats off topic. 778F will probs still come.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:08 pm

Delaying deliveries is another step down the road towards cancellation of orders. Not a good sign for this program, which is so dependent upon ME3
 
lifecomm
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:21 pm

XT6Wagon wrote:
787F is the bigger missing model IMO. I'd expect the 777F to not launch till they get hard data on production costs.


Can a proposed 787F really compete with a $100M 767-300F? Wouldn't the 787F require different floor beams at a minimum? I can't see Boeing spending the money it would require so that, down the road (maybe), they could sell enough to justify the expenditure - all the while wrecking 767-300F sales. Seems to me that today you could order a 767-300F and get a terrific freighter - very quickly.
 
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ADent
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:25 am

lightsaber wrote:
I'm surprised no 777xF launch. If nothing else, to generate enough sales to give confidence in the production line staying open.


The 777F will take more cargo weight (same MTOW, lighter engines, shorter fuselage) - unless you fly it far enough to make the fuel savings work or need the extra volume I see the 777F selling better for now.

Though how long is Boeing going to continue making the 777F? When will they need to announce a 777xF?

lifecomm wrote:
Can a proposed 787F really compete with a $100M 767-300F? Wouldn't the 787F require different floor beams at a minimum? I can't see Boeing spending the money it would require so that, down the road (maybe), they could sell enough to justify the expenditure - all the while wrecking 767-300F sales. Seems to me that today you could order a 767-300F and get a terrific freighter - very quickly.


The 767-300F is on borrowed time, though quite a bit of time. The current design doesn't pass 2028 emissions rules, so it needs to be re-engined or put down by then.
 
2175301
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:50 pm

ADent wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm surprised no 777xF launch. If nothing else, to generate enough sales to give confidence in the production line staying open.


The 777F will take more cargo weight (same MTOW, lighter engines, shorter fuselage) - unless you fly it far enough to make the fuel savings work or need the extra volume I see the 777F selling better for now.

Though how long is Boeing going to continue making the 777F? When will they need to announce a 777xF?

lifecomm wrote:
Can a proposed 787F really compete with a $100M 767-300F? Wouldn't the 787F require different floor beams at a minimum? I can't see Boeing spending the money it would require so that, down the road (maybe), they could sell enough to justify the expenditure - all the while wrecking 767-300F sales. Seems to me that today you could order a 767-300F and get a terrific freighter - very quickly.


The 767-300F is on borrowed time, though quite a bit of time. The current design doesn't pass 2028 emissions rules, so it needs to be re-engined or put down by then.


Hmmm.... I'm not sure that the existing 777F meets the 2028 emissions rules. I have some charts that shows that between the 777-300 or the 777F that one clearly exceeds the limits and that the other is right on the "allowed" line and positioned such that its too close to tell from the chart if its OK past 2027, or not. I was unwilling to buy the actual publication with the exact models and numbers that would tell me which model of the 777 was on the line, and was it in or out for 2028. Note that I once tried posting pictures of these charts - and never could figure out a way to post those pictures - even after having placing the pictures on an internet picture hosting site.

As such we may well see the new 777XF at about 2028.

You are also correct that the current 767-300F will not meet the 2028 emissions standards. Boeing has announced that they are working on an updated 767-400F using the engines from the 747-8 which are a derivative of the 787 GE engines which will meet the 2028 standards (The 764 already has longer landing gear which will accommodate that larger engines, and also an updated cockpit). Of course, Boeing is in no immediate rush to bring the 764F to market at this time, and I suspect that UPS and FedEx will determine the exact entry time.

The proposed 764F fits into "D" gates, whereas the A330F and a potential B787F requires an "E" gate; which makes a huge difference to both FedEx and UPS with their space constrained cargo hubs in the USA. In September 2020 my count was that between FedEx and UPS that they had 559 Class "D" gate aircraft (A300, B757, B767, DC-10, MD-11); 58 Class "E" gate aircraft (B747-400, B777), and UPS had 16 Class "F" gate aircraft (B747-8).

Have a great day,
 
SteelChair
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:06 am

2175301 wrote:
ADent wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I'm surprised no 777xF launch. If nothing else, to generate enough sales to give confidence in the production line staying open.


The 777F will take more cargo weight (same MTOW, lighter engines, shorter fuselage) - unless you fly it far enough to make the fuel savings work or need the extra volume I see the 777F selling better for now.

Though how long is Boeing going to continue making the 777F? When will they need to announce a 777xF?

lifecomm wrote:
Can a proposed 787F really compete with a $100M 767-300F? Wouldn't the 787F require different floor beams at a minimum? I can't see Boeing spending the money it would require so that, down the road (maybe), they could sell enough to justify the expenditure - all the while wrecking 767-300F sales. Seems to me that today you could order a 767-300F and get a terrific freighter - very quickly.


The 767-300F is on borrowed time, though quite a bit of time. The current design doesn't pass 2028 emissions rules, so it needs to be re-engined or put down by then.


Hmmm.... I'm not sure that the existing 777F meets the 2028 emissions rules. I have some charts that shows that between the 777-300 or the 777F that one clearly exceeds the limits and that the other is right on the "allowed" line and positioned such that its too close to tell from the chart if its OK past 2027, or not. I was unwilling to buy the actual publication with the exact models and numbers that would tell me which model of the 777 was on the line, and was it in or out for 2028. Note that I once tried posting pictures of these charts - and never could figure out a way to post those pictures - even after having placing the pictures on an internet picture hosting site.

As such we may well see the new 777XF at about 2028.

You are also correct that the current 767-300F will not meet the 2028 emissions standards. Boeing has announced that they are working on an updated 767-400F using the engines from the 747-8 which are a derivative of the 787 GE engines which will meet the 2028 standards (The 764 already has longer landing gear which will accommodate that larger engines, and also an updated cockpit). Of course, Boeing is in no immediate rush to bring the 764F to market at this time, and I suspect that UPS and FedEx will determine the exact entry time.

The proposed 764F fits into "D" gates, whereas the A330F and a potential B787F requires an "E" gate; which makes a huge difference to both FedEx and UPS with their space constrained cargo hubs in the USA. In September 2020 my count was that between FedEx and UPS that they had 559 Class "D" gate aircraft (A300, B757, B767, DC-10, MD-11); 58 Class "E" gate aircraft (B747-400, B777), and UPS had 16 Class "F" gate aircraft (B747-8).

Have a great day,


Sorry, but I feel obligated to point out that Boeing has not actually launched any 767 re-engining effort. I would love to see it, but its a real long shot imho.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:22 am

This thread is about Emirates not getting their 779s until 2023
 
Noshow
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:45 am

It could still be some misunderstanding as they only said their first 777-9 with the new premium economy seats will be delivered in 2023. The other configuration might arrive earlier.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:00 am

“It is a question of when that aircraft is going to be completed and certified and offered for entry of service. That could be ‘22, could be ‘23, it could be even longer,” Clark told Reuters in an interview.

“So we will just wait and see as to what Boeing will do with regard to that and we will take a view as to how they fit into the fleet at that particular time.”


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... SKBN29I2SF

Some clarification on the comment regarding the the 777X noted in Emirates' PR. Sounds to me like Tim Clark is fairly confident that EK won't see the aircraft in service until late 2022, or 2023. Given EK's involvement, I'd tend to weight his comments as fairly reliable.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:38 am

Airlinerdude wrote:
“It is a question of when that aircraft is going to be completed and certified and offered for entry of service. That could be ‘22, could be ‘23, it could be even longer,” Clark told Reuters in an interview.

“So we will just wait and see as to what Boeing will do with regard to that and we will take a view as to how they fit into the fleet at that particular time.”


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... SKBN29I2SF

Some clarification on the comment regarding the the 777X noted in Emirates' PR. Sounds to me like Tim Clark is fairly confident that EK won't see the aircraft in service until late 2022, or 2023. Given EK's involvement, I'd tend to weight his comments as fairly reliable.

Boeing doesn’t really know either I’m afraid
 
blooc350
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:00 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
zkojq wrote:

And Executive Traveller - a far better source than airlineratings - says reasonably clearly that it's 2023.



Airline reating - quote direct from the sir tim says 2022.

Exec traveler - snip partial quote from press release.

Everyone free to see believe what they wish.

zkojq wrote:

What? Every airline goes on the PR offensive well prior to a new type's EIS where they outline the new aircraft's configuration, seats, launch routes, environmental credentials & technological innovations etc.


If true, can the show me the SQ NH LH CX etc press released on their Lopa or layoutings??

And as I said befores, images of different door count on 777x's already made prove my point. Too bad when people can't accept the reality because it's there in the balck and the white to see.


The 77X doesn’t enter service till 2022 at any airline, it’s a wee bit early and airlines are more worried about survival at the moment. SQ will have some new F product, NH likely will aswell, CX are deferred till 2025, not sure about LH, no F and initial plan was to replace the 744s remaining, who knows now.

Different door counts don’t prove anything without a source, are you sure what you are seeing are all EK aircraft? TBH I would have thought EK would take 4 class 779s first, you are saying they will take some with F, J, Y? I would say EK will take 4 class and 2 class ones, maybe some with J, W, Y?


SQ’s 777-9 will see new First Class Suites and Business Class products.

https://simpleflying.com/singapore-airlines-new-777x-first-class/
 
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reidar76
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:44 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:


Looks like the earliest date for EIS for the 777X is 10 years after launch. Ouch!

Could the 777X program still be cancelled? As we all know, it takes a long time, often after delivery of several hundred aircraft, before each delivery generates any profit. Boeing could save a lot of cash by cancelling the programme and thereby boost 787 sales.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Thu Jan 14, 2021 7:32 pm

reidar76 wrote:
Airlinerdude wrote:


Looks like the earliest date for EIS for the 777X is 10 years after launch. Ouch!

Could the 777X program still be cancelled? As we all know, it takes a long time, often after delivery of several hundred aircraft, before each delivery generates any profit. Boeing could save a lot of cash by cancelling the programme and thereby boost 787 sales.

Relax...what cash can you save at this point

I think what tim clark has said has been taken out of context. He said it could be 2022, 2023 or even later. that sounds like somebody that doesn't know. and thats because Boeing doesn't know. Until they get their TIA, i don't think they'll know.
 
SteelChair
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Fri Jan 15, 2021 2:46 am

Opus99 wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
Airlinerdude wrote:


Looks like the earliest date for EIS for the 777X is 10 years after launch. Ouch!

Could the 777X program still be cancelled? As we all know, it takes a long time, often after delivery of several hundred aircraft, before each delivery generates any profit. Boeing could save a lot of cash by cancelling the programme and thereby boost 787 sales.

Relax...what cash can you save at this point

I think what tim clark has said has been taken out of context. He said it could be 2022, 2023 or even later. that sounds like somebody that doesn't know. and thats because Boeing doesn't know. Until they get their TIA, i don't think they'll know.


The reality of the business climate is that no one knows. Its one thing to say that the world has been devastated by Covid. Its another thing to experience the economic reality. The only way I see Boeing surviving is through government bail out.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:35 am

Opus99 wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
Airlinerdude wrote:


Looks like the earliest date for EIS for the 777X is 10 years after launch. Ouch!

Could the 777X program still be cancelled? As we all know, it takes a long time, often after delivery of several hundred aircraft, before each delivery generates any profit. Boeing could save a lot of cash by cancelling the programme and thereby boost 787 sales.

Relax...what cash can you save at this point



If you lose millions on every frame produced (like for the first few hundred 787s) but you do not have a backlog of 1500 units nor the chance to ever hit the turning point where Boeing can sell an airframe at a profit your program will never make money.

While the development costs will not come back and are gone, you can still lose money going forward. And a lot of that. From a pure business perspective, a programm that creates negative cash flow and you see no way to reach a positive cash flow should be cancelled.

Now we don't know how the pricing and the production costs are, but if deferred production costs will arrive in the books and the rate of production will stay low, and sales will stay low, the program will never make money.

The 747-8i shows this exact path. If you look through the different year end earning reports you can see how the program never generated money and Boeing had to write down the deferred costs instead of cleaning them out, because the sold frames never generated enough positive cash flow (and I think in terms of the -8i never iirc) and should have been abandoned. Luckily the 747-8 came with the -8F.

So for the 777X it will be even harder as there is no XF version (yet) and it will not be a unique thing like the 747-8F (converted 747s are way less efficient due to the big upper structure). The 777xF will have to compete against cheap conversions that put a lid on pricing.

It will be interesting what will happen over the next few years. While the 777X is definitely a great achievement from a technical perspective (like the A380) I think it will be a commercial failure (like the A380).
 
Noshow
Posts: 2843
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:51 am

It will be the biggest aircraft available. Shouldn't there be some need for big airplanes in the future? As soon as the market comes back growth might kick in again.
 
RalXWB
Posts: 526
Joined: Sun Oct 25, 2015 9:36 am

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Fri Jan 15, 2021 8:59 am

Well it did not kick in before the pandemic and I doubt it will after the pandemic. Market has shifted to smaller widebodies.
 
Opus99
Posts: 2692
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:20 am

RalXWB wrote:
Well it did not kick in before the pandemic and I doubt it will after the pandemic. Market has shifted to smaller widebodies.

Well let’s wait and see when the 777-300ERs replacement cycle kicks in. Some will want similar sized jets. Some will want smaller. If the program can get up to 500 orders in total. About 200 more from here, I think they’ve tried. And it can
 
Noshow
Posts: 2843
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Fri Jan 15, 2021 9:31 am

There are many Chinese narrow body airlines that only start to grow into wide body sized aircraft. Ten years on they might very well need big stuff. Overall less flights post covid-19 might mean more cargo capacity underfloor will be needed. Something the 777 has to offer.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 20194
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:48 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
. It makes me wonder if all they meant to indicate is that the premium economy seats won't be available to book on the 777X until 2023, rather than that the 777X won't be ready for EIS until 2023.



Thank yous sir.

This was point I making in reference to the press release which none understandings but you.

EIS for 777X EK is unchanged. Summer 22.


Lehman reporting that EIS of 777X now pushed back to late 2023 and Boeing takes a $6.5 billion charge for 777X. Ouch.
https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/big-l ... d-by-easa/
 
astuteman
Posts: 7456
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:26 pm

scbriml wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
. It makes me wonder if all they meant to indicate is that the premium economy seats won't be available to book on the 777X until 2023, rather than that the 777X won't be ready for EIS until 2023.



Thank yous sir.

This was point I making in reference to the press release which none understandings but you.

EIS for 777X EK is unchanged. Summer 22.


Lehman reporting that EIS of 777X now pushed back to late 2023 and Boeing takes a $6.5 billion charge for 777X. Ouch.
https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/big-l ... d-by-easa/


Being discussed in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1457163

Get the feeling some of the arguments up-thread haven't aged well....

Rgds
 
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enzo011
Posts: 1982
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Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:54 pm

So with deliveries delayed by a further year for EK, the warning about cancelling the first A350's due to being overweight will surely sit very uncomfortably with Boeing. What if the 777X is overweight and late? If EK cancelled the A350 order there is nothing stopping them from doing the same to the 777X order if it doesn't meet expectations.
 
Opus99
Posts: 2692
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:57 pm

enzo011 wrote:
So with deliveries delayed by a further year for EK, the warning about cancelling the first A350's due to being overweight will surely sit very uncomfortably with Boeing. What if the 777X is overweight and late? If EK cancelled the A350 order there is nothing stopping them from doing the same to the 777X order if it doesn't meet expectations.

Where did overweight come from please. Cancelling because of late sure. Although if they brought the jet now will they take it? Can they even? This delay is annoying but 100% necessary. I doubt this will be certified as a derivative IMO
 
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enzo011
Posts: 1982
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2011 8:12 am

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 3:24 pm

Opus99 wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
So with deliveries delayed by a further year for EK, the warning about cancelling the first A350's due to being overweight will surely sit very uncomfortably with Boeing. What if the 777X is overweight and late? If EK cancelled the A350 order there is nothing stopping them from doing the same to the 777X order if it doesn't meet expectations.


Where did overweight come from please. Cancelling because of late sure. Although if they brought the jet now will they take it? Can they even? This delay is annoying but 100% necessary. I doubt this will be certified as a derivative IMO


I was referring to the revelation that EK cancelled the original A350 order due to it being overweight, from this very thread,

morrisond wrote:
This was an interesting quote "The A380 had already come in with 6.8 tons overweight and we had to live with that. We didn’t let Airbus get away with it on the A350, which was so overweight again initially that we canceled the contract for 70 aircraft."

I didn't know that (or don't remember it) - I thought everything about the A350 was perfect?


So you suspect Boeing will be nervous if there is a hint of the 777X not meeting specs. EK seems quick to pull the trigger if they aren't happy with their potential orders. If air travel doesn't return to previous levels in anywhere near what they need they will use any excuse they can to cancel an order.
 
majano
Posts: 371
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 4:05 pm

astuteman wrote:
scbriml wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Thank yous sir.

This was point I making in reference to the press release which none understandings but you.

EIS for 777X EK is unchanged. Summer 22.


Lehman reporting that EIS of 777X now pushed back to late 2023 and Boeing takes a $6.5 billion charge for 777X. Ouch.
https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/big-l ... d-by-easa/


Being discussed in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1457163

Get the feeling some of the arguments up-thread haven't aged well....

Rgds

Don't you worry Astute, they will just pivot elegantly in another direction
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1467
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:37 pm

astuteman wrote:
scbriml wrote:
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:

Thank yous sir.

This was point I making in reference to the press release which none understandings but you.

EIS for 777X EK is unchanged. Summer 22.


Lehman reporting that EIS of 777X now pushed back to late 2023 and Boeing takes a $6.5 billion charge for 777X. Ouch.
https://leehamnews.com/2021/01/27/big-l ... d-by-easa/


Being discussed in this thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1457163

Get the feeling some of the arguments up-thread haven't aged well....


Since I'm being quoted, I wanted to note that although they have now been invalidated, I stand by my arguments up-thread in the context at the time.

The only information we had indicating a delay of the 777X to 2023 was a passing mention in a press release about the seats in a completely different aircraft. I did not rule it out, but since a major schedule change is information that is materially significant to shareholders, and there was no mention of new development problems that would drive such a schedule change, I judged that the simplest explanation was that the press release was not intended to convey new information about the EIS timeline.

It appears to me there must have been a mix up internally at Emirates. Whoever wrote the press release probably reached out to the team planning the 777X cabin upgrades and got their latest schedule, with neither party realizing that was not public information yet. I'd imagine Boeing probably followed up with a polite letter to Emirates to remind them that negotiations on schedule are financially material information and need to be released through the proper channels so that shareholders don't feel misled.

That release through proper channels happened today.
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4736
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:53 pm

FluidFlow wrote:

If you lose millions on every frame produced (like for the first few hundred 787s) but you do not have a backlog of 1500 units nor the chance to ever hit the turning point where Boeing can sell an airframe at a profit your program will never make money.

While the development costs will not come back and are gone, you can still lose money going forward. And a lot of that. From a pure business perspective, a programm that creates negative cash flow and you see no way to reach a positive cash flow should be cancelled.


Agreed. With the 777X highly unlikely to give positive cashflow - let alone pay back its development costs - it would make financial sense to cancel the program. Especially if you can get customers to voluntarily convert their orders to the much more profitable 787 and, in doing so, bring the 787 up to a more healthy production rate.

But there's no way that the egos of Boeing's board would ever allow them to back out at this point.
 
morrisond
Posts: 3497
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 6:57 pm

zkojq wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

If you lose millions on every frame produced (like for the first few hundred 787s) but you do not have a backlog of 1500 units nor the chance to ever hit the turning point where Boeing can sell an airframe at a profit your program will never make money.

While the development costs will not come back and are gone, you can still lose money going forward. And a lot of that. From a pure business perspective, a programm that creates negative cash flow and you see no way to reach a positive cash flow should be cancelled.


Agreed. With the 777X highly unlikely to give positive cashflow - let alone pay back its development costs - it would make financial sense to cancel the program. Especially if you can get customers to voluntarily convert their orders to the much more profitable 787 and, in doing so, bring the 787 up to a more healthy production rate.

But there's no way that the egos of Boeing's board would ever allow them to back out at this point.


They just wrote off the development costs effectively and as long as they sold them for more than it costs them to build them - it should all be positive cashflow once they start delivering.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1151
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:03 pm

morrisond wrote:
zkojq wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

If you lose millions on every frame produced (like for the first few hundred 787s) but you do not have a backlog of 1500 units nor the chance to ever hit the turning point where Boeing can sell an airframe at a profit your program will never make money.

While the development costs will not come back and are gone, you can still lose money going forward. And a lot of that. From a pure business perspective, a programm that creates negative cash flow and you see no way to reach a positive cash flow should be cancelled.


Agreed. With the 777X highly unlikely to give positive cashflow - let alone pay back its development costs - it would make financial sense to cancel the program. Especially if you can get customers to voluntarily convert their orders to the much more profitable 787 and, in doing so, bring the 787 up to a more healthy production rate.

But there's no way that the egos of Boeing's board would ever allow them to back out at this point.


They just wrote off the development costs effectively and as long as they sold them for more than it costs them to build them - it should all be positive cashflow once they start delivering.


Chances are that is not the case for the first 100-200 built. The past shows that almost all programs lost money on the first builds (787 deferred costs show that, same for 747-8 and we also know the 350 only turned profitable in 2018). And with a production rate of 2 and also retrospective credits for late deliveries and launch customer discounts Boeing might lose a lot on the first 200 aircraft. It might well be in the 20 million dollar per frame region.
 
Antarius
Posts: 3436
Joined: Thu Apr 13, 2017 1:27 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:11 pm

enzo011 wrote:
So you suspect Boeing will be nervous if there is a hint of the 777X not meeting specs. EK seems quick to pull the trigger if they aren't happy with their potential orders. If air travel doesn't return to previous levels in anywhere near what they need they will use any excuse they can to cancel an order.


I think that goes without saying. Most contracts have an exit clause for failing to meet the SOW. That said, there hasn't been any indication that the 777X is overweight or missing targets yet.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 9100
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:29 pm

morrisond wrote:
They just wrote off the development costs effectively and as long as they sold them for more than it costs them to build them - it should all be positive cashflow once they start delivering.


They probably wrote off the development cost because it is highly unlikely to reap any promised incentives from WA or EXIM. Two per month production rate is not going to generate jobs for any state to give out incentives.

WTO, Boeing's relationship with WA and USA's willingness to subsidize foreign carriers through EXIM, all have negative outlook.

I am sure BCA is well aware of the sale price, Emirates ordered in 2014.

Two things have to happen for 777X to be a success story, 1) International aviation boom days have to return and 2) Oil has to go back to $100/bbl
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3496
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Emirates first Boeing 777X pushed back to 2023

Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:46 pm

zkojq wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

If you lose millions on every frame produced (like for the first few hundred 787s) but you do not have a backlog of 1500 units nor the chance to ever hit the turning point where Boeing can sell an airframe at a profit your program will never make money.

While the development costs will not come back and are gone, you can still lose money going forward. And a lot of that. From a pure business perspective, a programm that creates negative cash flow and you see no way to reach a positive cash flow should be cancelled.


Agreed. With the 777X highly unlikely to give positive cashflow - let alone pay back its development costs - it would make financial sense to cancel the program. Especially if you can get customers to voluntarily convert their orders to the much more profitable 787 and, in doing so, bring the 787 up to a more healthy production rate.

But there's no way that the egos of Boeing's board would ever allow them to back out at this point.


This approach, which you have floated numerous times, ignores context. The 777X is produced in tandem with the 777F, a critical part of the Boeing freighter line up (and moreso with the 747F ending). The cost of development is largely spent and the incremental cost of production for 777X isn't prohibitive and also lends to the profitability of 777F by not putting the entire 777 line production cost on it. Furthermore, it ignores the potential development of a 777X-F. Boeing isn't cancelling the 777X and it isn't because of egos.

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