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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:43 pm

Stitch wrote:
[
As wonderful as CFRP is said to be, stretching it to the projected 787-11 and 787-12 lengths might have penalized it with significant extra weight - just like the A340-500 and A340-600 stretches did to the A340-300. New wings would have been a given, likely with a span similar to the 777X with folding wingtips. And new undercarriage would have had needed to be developed to support both the higher operating weights and to raise the airframe off the ground to allow the fitting of the GEnx and/or Trent XWB. All of that would have driven up the structural weight, as well.

So it could have ended up being the 787 stretches were also more heavier than the A350-1000 and might have been as heavy or heavier than the 777X.


I can buy maybe as heavy as the A350 but heavier than the 777X - never.

The 777X is 244" in Fuselage height - many think the 787 is a lot smaller - but its actually 234" in height - only a 10" difference (A350 is 240"). Carbon supposedly has an advantage in stretching - in terms of less weight penalty than Aluminum and that given the height difference which is one of the largest determining factors, is not that much, stretching 787 to 80m does not seem that impossible.

The 787-10 is already 68M long. A -11/12 (say maybe 74M and 80M) would arguably have a longer Wingbox - call it 2m - so you are talking about an extra 2M in front and back of the wingbox on the -11 and 5M extra on the -12.

The A350 seems fine with a 65M wing at up to what 321 or higher? Supposedly the existing 787 wing is good for 280T - 65M should be fine for an -11/12 and no heavy/expensive folding tips. XWB class thrust seems like enough.

787 should have a lighter nose/cockpit section. 787 Electric architecture is lighter. Empty weight of 781 is what 135T - 777X is what 180T? Yes the 787-11/12 would have gotten heavier - possibly into the 155-165T ton range, as it would be higher capacity than A351 (at least the -12 would be.). Lighter - less thrust - less need for higher MTOW to meet range targets.

Therefore taking all the above into account - an 75/80M 787-11/12 should have definitely been lighter, sooner to market and less cost to develop. Boeing blew it.
Last edited by morrisond on Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:49 pm

Opus99 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
ssteve wrote:

Are you saying it would have made sense to be only producing 787 passenger derivatives by 2021 (albeit with a new triple-stretch that you propose)? Wouldn't have worked out well. They are closing the 787 line in Everett, not opening new ones.


Yes - just 787 Derivatives as their only only WB product. That is what I (and others) were proposing back in 2012.

If the 787-11/12 was available now - and it could have been as it should have taken less time than 777x as not as much systems work - the Everett line could still be open - or less likely that it be consolidated down to 1. Although given COVID that would make SC pretty efficient with only 1.

For the rest of you stating why Boeing wouldn't have done this in 2012 - you can whine all you want - but in Hindsight given how much more mature the 787 it would have been the right decision.

It is not revisionist history. I and others were right to think that this was the best course of action.

Except we don't have the gift of hindsight at our disposal when decisions are made. also there's absolutely no guarantee that product would've been on time. the -10 only came out in 2017. it would've probably been somewhat different to the currently line of 787s, much higher MTOW, six wheel config on the main landing gear, different wing profile for a jet that they hadn't even fully optimised at the time? would it have used the current GEnX? or a new engine? how much will the weight savings be when you begin to stretch out like that. How would it fair against the -1000? would the gain over the 1000 have been enough? there are too many factors that played against such a decision.


No we don't have hindsight just my post and ones from others back in 2012.

It would have been less work than 777X and the engineers knew it intimately - there is no real reason it would not have delivered last year. If they had gone down this route they may never have done the -10 which would have saved further resources.
 
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ssteve
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:13 pm

Simple stretch of new 787 vs. a neo-stretch of old 777... well, -10 is the last simple stretch. I think that's what everyone is getting at here. You act like the -11 and/or -12 would be simple stretches. Not many people seem to think that.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:26 pm

ssteve wrote:
Simple stretch of new 787 vs. a neo-stretch of old 777... well, -10 is the last simple stretch. I think that's what everyone is getting at here. You act like the -11 and/or -12 would be simple stretches. Not many people seem to think that.


When did I ever say that. I said new wing/wingbox/gear, tail and engines - basically everything they have done to 777X without all the systems work on 777X.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:57 pm

Boeing had the same management issues with the 777X and 787, as Airbus with the A330 and A350. The difference is Airbus placed the A330/A350 family under a single management team early on, and the existing successful model was the smaller sibling. In contrast, Boeing kept X and 787 teams and management separate, and the existing successful model (777) was the larger sibling.

Just like a dictator in a country, when a single team 'owns' 2 model families, it's much easier to deal with contention, manage margins, features and capability.

At Airbus, A350 development progress has inhibited the availability of ready to go A330 features, capability and sales, for the greater good, though this may change as customers and financiers favour smaller.

At Boeing, ignoring X airworthiness pressures / issues, the X and 787 teams are at war, competing as much with each other, as with Airbus for sales, developments, features, budgets and promises. And that sacrifices margins on both families.

Virtually every X currently on the order book has been sold at launch margins. Retrospective credits earned on X deliveries if used for more X purchases, convert at a higher rate than if used for 787 purchases (vice versa for 787). And the MAX tiered retrospective credits formula also rolled out for the X, so Boeing delays ultimately decrease the unit price paid, and customer delays the opposite (part of the announced write offs relate to these).

Hindsight is wonderful.

One benefit of volume is it permits cost-effective model variation options. For example, two different centre sections / wings / landing gear options for the A32 family, would permit more stretches / high performance / weight offerings.

No WB will ever hit the same volumes, but a 787 with two different centre sections / wings / landing gear options, could have encroached cost effectively into 777 and A350 territory.
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:02 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
...
Compared to the original EIS target, you are correct, but let's just review the history in order to gain a sense of what factors drove how much change.

  • November 2013: Boeing launches the 777X, with first delivery planned for an unspecified part of 2020.
  • March 2016: Boeing is rumored to be trying to accelerate first delivery from planned 2020 to 2019.
  • October 2019: Due to GE's engine issues, first delivery pushed back from what had previously been summer of 2020 to the 1st half of 2021. This change was expected by this time.
  • December 2019: First cases of COVID-19 documented
  • January 2020: First flight (the history of other programs suggests EIS in roughly 16 months)
  • March 2020: COVID-19 related restrictions become widespread globally, including 4 week Boeing shutdown.
  • July 2020: First delivery pushed back to an unspecified part of 2022
  • January 2021: First delivery pushed back to late 2023

There's no specific dates given in any of this, but a mix of "early", "late", "summer" and "sometime" references to the years listed. Trying to boil that down to a more concrete, although assumed interpretation, I'll base my math on an original target of June 2020 and a current target of September 2023 (interpreting "late" as "2nd half" and taking the middle of that window).
...


I think you forgot an important point.
[*] September 2019: During fuselage (over-)pressurization test the (cargo-hold) door blew out.
So also changes to the fuselage (thinner walls to increase cabin width) Boeing made resulted in the fuselage not passing a structural qualification test. The blame wasn't only at GE's side, also Boeing itself didn't do their job correctly.
I think this might be another reason the 777X is treated as a clean sheet by the FAA and EASA for qualification. Grandfathering shouldn't happen anymore. Hopefully that's the really painful lesson learned from the 737MAX. If an aircraft design is modernized/upgraded, it should be made up to the newest standards.

With order backlogs being very non-firm as a result of COVID-19, what do we expect the result of this further EIS delay will be for the order backlog?
I think the ME airlines can only take about half their orders.
- Emirates 115
- Qatar 60
- Etihad 25
Wouldn't European airlines be better off with the A350-1000 besides the A350-900 instead of the 777X as single family member?
For Cathay Pacific and Singapore the same could be the case as with the European airlines.

Luckily for Boeing their 777F still has 41 orders and is the only large newbuild freighter; and the 777W still has 16 frames in the backlog. So with 2/month the backlog is nearly three years of production.
Last edited by CFRPwingALbody on Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:09 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
...
Compared to the original EIS target, you are correct, but let's just review the history in order to gain a sense of what factors drove how much change.

  • November 2013: Boeing launches the 777X, with first delivery planned for an unspecified part of 2020.
  • March 2016: Boeing is rumored to be trying to accelerate first delivery from planned 2020 to 2019.
  • October 2019: Due to GE's engine issues, first delivery pushed back from what had previously been summer of 2020 to the 1st half of 2021. This change was expected by this time.
  • December 2019: First cases of COVID-19 documented
  • January 2020: First flight (the history of other programs suggests EIS in roughly 16 months)
  • March 2020: COVID-19 related restrictions become widespread globally, including 4 week Boeing shutdown.
  • July 2020: First delivery pushed back to an unspecified part of 2022
  • January 2021: First delivery pushed back to late 2023

There's no specific dates given in any of this, but a mix of "early", "late", "summer" and "sometime" references to the years listed. Trying to boil that down to a more concrete, although assumed interpretation, I'll base my math on an original target of June 2020 and a current target of September 2023 (interpreting "late" as "2nd half" and taking the middle of that window).
...


I think you forgot an important point.
[*] September 2019: During fuselage (over-)pressurization test the cargo-hold door blew out.
So also changes to the fuselage (thinner walls to increase cabin width) Boeing made resulted in the fuselage not passing a structural qualification test. The blame wasn't only at GE's side, also Boeing itself didn't do their job correctly.
I think this might be another reason the 777X is treated as a clean sheet by the FAA and EASA for qualification. Grandfathering shouldn't happen anymore. Hopefully that's the really painful lesson learned from the 737MAX. If an aircraft design is modernized/upgraded, it should be made up to the newest standards.

With order backlogs being very non-firm as a result of COVID-19, what do we expect the result of this further EIS delay will be for the order backlog?
I think the ME airlines can only take about half their orders.
- Emirates 115
- Qatar 60
- Etihad 25
Wouldn't European airlines be better off with the A350-1000 besides the A350-900 instead of the 777X as single family member?
For Cathay Pacific and Singapore the same could be the case as with the European airlines.

Luckily for Boeing their 777F still has 41 orders and is the only large newbuild freighter; and the 777W still has 16 frames in the backlog. So with 2/month the backlog is nearly three years of production.

Emirates will take most of theirs. High numbers if not to replace 777s at least to replace a380s. There’s need for the jet there. Definitely closer to the 100 mark.

Etihad. Just remove them

Qatar...honestly. I don’t know. Akbar says he is taking every jet he has on order. So I’d say maybe they take everything? I’m yet to see the distinct roles the 1000 plays at Qatar compared to for example the 777s. Then later on the 777-9. It seems to 1000 is for growth and 777-9 is for replacement. Well Akbar said the -9s are for replacement so the 1000 must be for growth
 
CFRPwingALbody
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:17 pm

About Emirates replacing 777s; the 777X is unproven and delayed.
Emirates still has A380's on order that they prefer not to take, possibly they can make a deal with Airbus to exchange these orders, in exchange for Emirates ordering A350s and dropping the 777X. It's a possibility, though unlikely.
 
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Pythagoras
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:18 pm

Two brief comments.

1) Changes to hardware and software in the flight controls is likely due to revisiting the failure modes and probability of occurrence which is indicating that they may not meet certification requirements for how often failures would occur. Or conversely, the consequences of the failure may have been re-assessed and the a higher reliability is now required. One can conjecture that this might be for systems which were unchanged or had minor changes for 777-X from 777-300ER where new scrutiny after the 737Max accidents resulted in re-visiting analysis that was done for initial certification. Software can be modified to include patches or new modules. The devil is in the details as far as the extent of hardware changes though.

2) With regards to the $6.5B charge. Placing myself in CFO Greg Smith's position, I'd think that it would make his job very difficult to burden the accounting of the 777X with the cost of an external event of the Covid-19 pandemic. It affects the industry as a whole and thus the costs would be appropriately carried on the books against the company's value rather against the program itself. Developing a business case for future decisions as to what product improvements to make or whether or not to develop derivatives should not have to deal with an asterisk. It also helps financial analysts make sense of the company's finances once the program starts to spool up again. The 777-X then just looks like any of the other airplane programs entering into service.

It also seems to me that the accounting system and the pricing that is being offered to customers just doesn't work when you have multiple years of production being carried as inventory and waiting to be delivered. How does Sales team put together a proposal that shows a profit when there is all this unresolved baggage surrounding Covid?
 
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Pythagoras
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:26 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
...
Compared to the original EIS target, you are correct, but let's just review the history in order to gain a sense of what factors drove how much change.

  • November 2013: Boeing launches the 777X, with first delivery planned for an unspecified part of 2020.
  • March 2016: Boeing is rumored to be trying to accelerate first delivery from planned 2020 to 2019.
  • October 2019: Due to GE's engine issues, first delivery pushed back from what had previously been summer of 2020 to the 1st half of 2021. This change was expected by this time.
  • December 2019: First cases of COVID-19 documented
  • January 2020: First flight (the history of other programs suggests EIS in roughly 16 months)
  • March 2020: COVID-19 related restrictions become widespread globally, including 4 week Boeing shutdown.
  • July 2020: First delivery pushed back to an unspecified part of 2022
  • January 2021: First delivery pushed back to late 2023

There's no specific dates given in any of this, but a mix of "early", "late", "summer" and "sometime" references to the years listed. Trying to boil that down to a more concrete, although assumed interpretation, I'll base my math on an original target of June 2020 and a current target of September 2023 (interpreting "late" as "2nd half" and taking the middle of that window).
...


I think you forgot an important point.
[*] September 2019: During fuselage (over-)pressurization test the (cargo-hold) door blew out.
So also changes to the fuselage (thinner walls to increase cabin width) Boeing made resulted in the fuselage not passing a structural qualification test. The blame wasn't only at GE's side, also Boeing itself didn't do their job correctly.
I think this might be another reason the 777X is treated as a clean sheet by the FAA and EASA for qualification. Grandfathering shouldn't happen anymore. Hopefully that's the really painful lesson learned from the 737MAX. If an aircraft design is modernized/upgraded, it should be made up to the newest standards.

With order backlogs being very non-firm as a result of COVID-19, what do we expect the result of this further EIS delay will be for the order backlog?
I think the ME airlines can only take about half their orders.
- Emirates 115
- Qatar 60
- Etihad 25
Wouldn't European airlines be better off with the A350-1000 besides the A350-900 instead of the 777X as single family member?
For Cathay Pacific and Singapore the same could be the case as with the European airlines.

Luckily for Boeing their 777F still has 41 orders and is the only large newbuild freighter; and the 777W still has 16 frames in the backlog. So with 2/month the backlog is nearly three years of production.


The (cargo hold) door did not blow out. A-net needs to stop propagating this rumor.

But as Boeing personnel along with six FAA observers watched from the windows of a control room, at 1.48 times limit load — 99% of ultimate load — the structure gave way. Under the center fuselage, just aft of the wing and the well where the landing gear wheels are stowed, the extreme compression load caused the plane’s aluminum skin to buckle and rupture, according to the person familiar with the details.

The resulting depressurization was explosive enough that workers in the next bay heard it clearly. One worker said he heard “a loud boom, and the ground shook.”

That then caused secondary damage: The photos show that the fuselage skin split part of the way up the side of the airplane, along with areas of bent and twisted structure that extended through the area around a passenger door.

A day after the incident, based on incomplete information, The Seattle Times and other media outlets incorrectly reported that a cargo door had blown out.

Unlike the plane’s cargo doors, which hinge outward, the passenger doors on airliners are plug-type doors that only open inward and are larger than the hole they close. But the structure around that passenger door just aft of the 777X wing was so damaged that the pressure blew the door out and it fell to the floor.

These secondary damage sites — the rip up the side of the fuselage, the door blown out — alarming as they might seem, are not a concern to air safety engineers. “The doors were not a precipitating factor,” said the person familiar with the details.

It’s the initiating failure, the weakness in that localized area of the keel, that Boeing must now fix.

Yet the fix is very unlikely to require a retest.

A safety engineer at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), speaking anonymously without permission from the agency, said that because the blowout happened so close to the target load, it barely counts as a failure.


https://www.seattletimes.com/business/b ... ress-test/
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:59 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
I think you forgot an important point.
[*] September 2019: During fuselage (over-)pressurization test the (cargo-hold) door blew out.
So also changes to the fuselage (thinner walls to increase cabin width) Boeing made resulted in the fuselage not passing a structural qualification test. The blame wasn't only at GE's side, also Boeing itself didn't do their job correctly.


I did not forget. Pythagoras, thankfully, was already aware of and quoted some of the relevant details from past reporting. There has not been any contradiction since then of Boeing's initial assessment that the fix would be straightforward and not drive any schedule change.

I think this might be another reason the 777X is treated as a clean sheet by the FAA and EASA for qualification. Grandfathering shouldn't happen anymore. Hopefully that's the really painful lesson learned from the 737MAX. If an aircraft design is modernized/upgraded, it should be made up to the newest standards.


That wasn't the lesson of the MAX. The lesson of the MAX is that the regulations that affect an aircraft need to be implemented properly and verified effectively.

The FAA should retain the discretion to determine if a new regulation is important enough to require all aircraft to comply, or if it can be phased in with new designs.

With order backlogs being very non-firm as a result of COVID-19, what do we expect the result of this further EIS delay will be for the order backlog?


Boeing giving the airlines leeway to defer deliveries should help stabilize the order backlog. That does not mean there are not further cancellations awaiting announcement, but I maintain my opinion that the airlines are behind this schedule change, not Boeing.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:40 pm

https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardabo ... ventually/

Interesting article, i'm sure many of you will know i agree with him. But many of you definitely wont. Thoughts?
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 12:32 am

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardaboulafia/2021/01/28/boeings-777x-could-still-be-a-success-eventually/

Interesting article, i'm sure many of you will know i agree with him. But many of you definitely wont. Thoughts?


I agree with this take.

Route fragmentation and the existing widebody glut that wasn't really recognized until too late in the development program are major issues for the 777X. Yet, the general expectations of the future market leave open the possibility for the time to become right for the 777X before it runs out of initial orders.

The timing of the 777X turned out to be terrible, but I think most people are too focused on what conditions are right now, and not thinking very long term. Lightsaber's playing chicken thread is the place to focus on how bad things are and will be for several years, but eventually we settle into whatever the new normal is.

As the market recovers to 2019 levels, the same retirements and deferrals that are crucial for airlines to survive right now, which lower manufacturer revenue and weaken pricing due to a flooded used market, should leave the airlines short on the capacity they would need in order to meet the recovered demand. Boeing has to hang on until then.

They also need the market fragmentation trend to reach equilibrium at some point.
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:53 am

It seems N779XW flies everyday this week.

What is it testing currently?
 
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RobK
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 11:37 am

Could I make the suggestion to those of who wish to argue 777X vs. [every other jetliner in the world] go start your own thread "777X future" or similar and leave this one to discuss the actual testing/production as per the thread title so that we don't have to wade through 4 pages of crap to find the on-topic discussion? Much obliged.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 2:42 pm

RobK wrote:
Could I make the suggestion to those of who wish to argue 777X vs. [every other jetliner in the world] go start your own thread "777X future" or similar and leave this one to discuss the actual testing/production as per the thread title so that we don't have to wade through 4 pages of crap to find the on-topic discussion? Much obliged.



Mods moved the discussion about the financial charge and delay of the 777X to this thread. Take it up with them about starting a new thread as they merged the previous one with this one.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:13 pm

VV wrote:
It seems N779XW flies everyday this week.

What is it testing currently?

Not sure. It’s going to a new destination today though

Pocatello, Idaho
 
Capricorn
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:26 pm

CFRPwingALbody wrote:
With order backlogs being very non-firm as a result of COVID-19, what do we expect the result of this further EIS delay will be for the order backlog?
I think the ME airlines can only take about half their orders.
- Emirates 115
- Qatar 60
- Etihad 25
Wouldn't European airlines be better off with the A350-1000 besides the A350-900 instead of the 777X as single family member?
For Cathay Pacific and Singapore the same could be the case as with the European airlines.


I think you generally touched on an important point. The 777X has the problem, that some existing customers might have over ordered the plane (EY, EK, maybe CX if thins don't improve in HK, which is unlikely though) and that there are not too many additional customers on the horizon. In Europe I could potentially only see KL and TK as new customers (and maybe down the road SU), while I can't see any airline in Latin America or Africa (maybe ET in case of unpredicted exceptional growth) with the need for the 777X. I think in Asia there is some potential CA, KE (But after the OZ merger and the potential transfer of the 35K order IMO there is some doubt) and in Oceania maybe QF at some point. But the list of potential 777X customers is limited, unlike that of smaller (entry level) WBs.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Boeing 777X Testidng/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:42 pm

Certification authorities globally are running scared of the "grandfathering" concept following their MAX experience. It would be interesting to know how much of the delays and costs derive from that.
 
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RobK
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:17 pm

enzo011 wrote:
RobK wrote:
Could I make the suggestion to those of who wish to argue 777X vs. [every other jetliner in the world] go start your own thread "777X future" or similar and leave this one to discuss the actual testing/production as per the thread title so that we don't have to wade through 4 pages of crap to find the on-topic discussion? Much obliged.



Mods moved the discussion about the financial charge and delay of the 777X to this thread. Take it up with them about starting a new thread as they merged the previous one with this one.


The 4 pages of A vs B from the usual fanboys and discussion about the delays should all be in this thread : viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1457187&p=22623981&hilit=777x#p22623981

Please continue discussion there. This thread is for the flight testing and production order/roll-outs. The other 99.9% of the forum readership does not care for your MCAS and Max discussions here. It's like having the 3000 pages of crap from the '737 Max grounding' thread all thrown into the 'Production/flight test' thread. Completely ridiculous.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:39 pm

Yeah I believe the moderator request in the "Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023" thread was to discuss the 777X delays in this thread, not the financial impact and all the other unrelated commentary that has been going on.

So we can discuss the delays here, but the financial impacts, what Boeing should have done, the 737MAX and all that should not be in here. Financial discussion can go to Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023 thread and the MAX commentary to the many MAX threads.
 
travaz
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:24 pm

RobK wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
RobK wrote:
Could I make the suggestion to those of who wish to argue 777X vs. [every other jetliner in the world] go start your own thread "777X future" or similar and leave this one to discuss the actual testing/production as per the thread title so that we don't have to wade through 4 pages of crap to find the on-topic discussion? Much obliged.



Mods moved the discussion about the financial charge and delay of the 777X to this thread. Take it up with them about starting a new thread as they merged the previous one with this one.


The 4 pages of A vs B from the usual fanboys and discussion about the delays should all be in this thread : viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1457187&p=22623981&hilit=777x#p22623981

Please continue discussion there. This thread is for the flight testing and production order/roll-outs. The other 99.9% of the forum readership does not care for your MCAS and Max discussions here. It's like having the 3000 pages of crap from the '737 Max grounding' thread all thrown into the 'Production/flight test' thread. Completely ridiculous.

Yes this used to be an interesting discussion about the testing process and methods. Now its a run of the mill A VS B whizzing contest.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:21 pm

Stitch wrote:
Yeah I believe the moderator request in the "Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023" thread was to discuss the 777X delays in this thread, not the financial impact and all the other unrelated commentary that has been going on.

So we can discuss the delays here, but the financial impacts, what Boeing should have done, the 737MAX and all that should not be in here. Financial discussion can go to Boeing Posts $8.4 Billion 4Q Loss ($11.9 billion full year loss), Delays 777X to 2023 thread and the MAX commentary to the many MAX threads.



You cannot discuss what is effectively the current state of Boeing Commercial in 3 or more threads. It is especially silly when all of this was from one event, the report on the financial results for the year for Boeing. So the mods moved the 777X discussion to this thread, so they are comfortable with the total discussion on the delay and the subsequent financial impact in one thread Otherwise I am sure we would have seen a mod ask someone to move the discussion elsewhere.

I agree though that much of this discussion shouldn't be in here, but then I didn't move it here.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:09 am

Just had a thought: Given the reduction in capacity of so many airline routes due to CoVid, would this be an opportunity to accelerate development of the 778 as its capacity is similar to the 777W?
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:16 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Just had a thought: Given the reduction in capacity of so many airline routes due to CoVid, would this be an opportunity to accelerate development of the 778 as its capacity is similar to the 777W?


I do not think so.
 
94717
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Sun Jan 31, 2021 12:31 pm

tomcat wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Emphasis mine:

'The schedule change and charge also reflect adjustments to production rates and the programme accounting quantity, increased change incorporation costs and associated customer and supply change impacts.'

That means they're planning to amortize engineering and tooling charges over a smaller lifetime quantity.


This part raised questions about the maturity of the design:
increased change incorporation costs


It would mean that they are planning to incorporate more changes than expected so far. There can be several reasons for that:
- they plan a deeper weight saving exercise than initially foreseen
- they intend to introduce some structural modifications not related to a weight saving effort
- some additional modifications (to the airframe or any system or equipment) are necessary to satisfy the certification requirements.
Also, how many already built aircraft would need to be modified by the time the design will be certified. Is this a moving target?


I can understand that every WB program right now see a smaller production. The bigger WB the worse hit for the next 3-5 years.

But do Boeing already see needs for improvements? According to Boeing 77X and special 779 has advantage over A350 serials.

Why?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Mon Feb 01, 2021 5:33 pm

olle wrote:
tomcat wrote:
It would mean that they are planning to incorporate more changes than expected so far. There can be several reasons for that:
- they plan a deeper weight saving exercise than initially foreseen
- they intend to introduce some structural modifications not related to a weight saving effort
- some additional modifications (to the airframe or any system or equipment) are necessary to satisfy the certification requirements.
Also, how many already built aircraft would need to be modified by the time the design will be certified. Is this a moving target?

I can understand that every WB program right now see a smaller production. The bigger WB the worse hit for the next 3-5 years.

But do Boeing already see needs for improvements? According to Boeing 77X and special 779 has advantage over A350 serials.

Why?

Just because you have "advantages" over competitors, doesn't mean you don't try for more.

All the programs have production blocks or tranches with improvements between them.

I can remember this happening for 777, A340-500/600, A380, 787, and even as recently as A330neo which got MTOW boosts in later blocks/tranches.

No one gets it perfect the first time, in fact most are conservative on the early builds until they have enough data to support improvements.

This unplanned delay for 777X may allow it to retrofit improvements to the first models, or make the first few blocks/tranches smaller so the improvements can be rolled out sooner than planned.

Note it is often flight testing that gives you the data you need to make further optimizations such as weight reduction or structural strengthening.

Given the wing is all new and is the first in-house clean sheet wing since 777, chances are good they have gathered the data needed to consider making improvements.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:36 pm

Revelation wrote:
olle wrote:
tomcat wrote:
It would mean that they are planning to incorporate more changes than expected so far. There can be several reasons for that:
- they plan a deeper weight saving exercise than initially foreseen
- they intend to introduce some structural modifications not related to a weight saving effort
- some additional modifications (to the airframe or any system or equipment) are necessary to satisfy the certification requirements.
Also, how many already built aircraft would need to be modified by the time the design will be certified. Is this a moving target?

I can understand that every WB program right now see a smaller production. The bigger WB the worse hit for the next 3-5 years.

But do Boeing already see needs for improvements? According to Boeing 77X and special 779 has advantage over A350 serials.

Why?

Just because you have "advantages" over competitors, doesn't mean you don't try for more.

All the programs have production blocks or tranches with improvements between them.

I can remember this happening for 777, A340-500/600, A380, 787, and even as recently as A330neo which got MTOW boosts in later blocks/tranches.

No one gets it perfect the first time, in fact most are conservative on the early builds until they have enough data to support improvements.

This unplanned delay for 777X may allow it to retrofit improvements to the first models, or make the first few blocks/tranches smaller so the improvements can be rolled out sooner than planned.

Note it is often flight testing that gives you the data you need to make further optimizations such as weight reduction or structural strengthening.

Given the wing is all new and is the first in-house clean sheet wing since 777, chances are good they have gathered the data needed to consider making improvements.

Interesting on the 777 being an in house wing. is that for all variants?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Interesting on the 777 being an in house wing. is that for all variants?

Yes. Interesting video on the large parts for the older variants being transported by road to the factory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=wsZ6YPsPpj0

I believe other stuff comes in via barge or ship to the Port of Everett but it all gets assembled at PAE.

787 famously outsourced the wing to Japan and it arrives mostly assembled via Dreamlifter.
 
tomcat
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Re: Boeing delays first 777-9 delivery to 2023, takes $6.5bn charge

Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Interesting on the 777 being an in house wing. is that for all variants?

Yes. Interesting video on the large parts for the older variants being transported by road to the factory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=wsZ6YPsPpj0

I believe other stuff comes in via barge or ship to the Port of Everett but it all gets assembled at PAE.

787 famously outsourced the wing to Japan and it arrives mostly assembled via Dreamlifter.


Indeed, the 787 wing was outsourced (outer wing box to MHI and center wing box to FHI) but at some point, Boeing got deeply involved in its multiple redesigns. They hired many foreign contractors (along American ones and their own staff) to do this job though.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 12:22 am

Sigh. Optimising the -10 doesn’t sound like a bad idea honestly
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 10:59 am

Just noted that N779XZ flew on 31st January 2021.

Isn't this the one with the complete cabin?
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:58 pm

777X WH004 is being ferried to Alaska today to begin cold soak testing. I assume cold weather testing basically.

https://twitter.com/b777xlovers/status/ ... 80745?s=21
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:58 pm

VV wrote:
Just noted that N779XZ flew on 31st January 2021.

Isn't this the one with the complete cabin?

This was a functional flight
 
BEG2IAH
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:00 pm

[quote="Opus99"
This was a functional flight[/quote]

Is that a flight where they test all cabinetry, locks and doors, i.e., if it is operating at max altitude?
 
wesk
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:17 pm

BEG2IAH wrote:
[quote="Opus99"
This was a functional flight


Is that a flight where they test all cabinetry, locks and doors, i.e., if it is operating at max altitude?[/quote]
I believe that there’s no specific tests on functional flights other than to simply check that the aircraft is functioning. They are usually done on aircraft after a decent amount of time in storage before they do another series of testing. Basically just to run the systems before further testing.
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:09 am

Opus99 wrote:
VV wrote:
Just noted that N779XZ flew on 31st January 2021.

Isn't this the one with the complete cabin?

This was a functional flight


Okay. So it is just making sure things works normally after production or after long storage.
 
Spetsnaz55
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:37 pm

New aviation week article that came out last night since EASA is driving the delays. Need a subscription to read.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... s-concerns
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:26 pm

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
New aviation week article that came out last night since EASA is driving the delays. Need a subscription to read.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... s-concerns


Don't need to pay, just register to read. Basically it comes down to this,

Officially, EASA is saying little beyond acknowledging it plans to take on larger roles in certification programs, including the 777X.

“EASA has said that it will increase its scrutiny on the flight-control system on the 777X, and we have started the discussions with the FAA and Boeing on this,” EASA said. “We are not commenting in detail on the scope of our activities, but we will indeed be conducting a more in-depth review of the aircraft-critical changes as part of our lessons learned from the 737 MAX. We will be following a thorough process to ensure the safety of the aircraft.”


So because of the problems discovered with the MAX certification.

While EASA has several concerns linked to 777X system architecture, a primary one focuses on the potential for single points of failure in the fly-by-wire flight-control system, multiple sources said. Boeing fly-by-wire designs traditionally employ triple redundancy architectures designed to survive at least two failures. Airbus aircraft, such as the A320, use dissimilar computers running dissimilar software packages.

One regulatory official said EASA’s familiarity and comfort with the Airbus approach—combined with concerns amplified during the 737 MAX review that included an EASA-led push to add flight-control system redundancy—are contributing to the European regulator’s concerns on the 777X. While the FAA acknowledges both approaches can work, the regulator points to Boeing’s success with its approach, and the possibility of introducing more failure scenarios when variants of the same system are used, the regulatory official said.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 4:43 pm

I'm assuming the 777X's flight-control system architecture is based on that used in the 777 and that system seems to be working acceptably safely based on the last two decades of in-service data.
 
BEG2IAH
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:19 pm

Boeing fly-by-wire designs traditionally employ triple redundancy architectures designed to survive at least two failures. Airbus aircraft, such as the A320, use dissimilar computers running dissimilar software packages.


Does this mean that EASA is pushing Boeing to ditch its proven engineering approach on B777 and develop another Airbus? I thought that B777 proved itself already.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:56 pm

Stitch wrote:
I'm assuming the 777X's flight-control system architecture is based on that used in the 777 and that system seems to be working acceptably safely based on the last two decades of in-service data.

BEG2IAH wrote:
Boeing fly-by-wire designs traditionally employ triple redundancy architectures designed to survive at least two failures. Airbus aircraft, such as the A320, use dissimilar computers running dissimilar software packages.

Does this mean that EASA is pushing Boeing to ditch its proven engineering approach on B777 and develop another Airbus? I thought that B777 proved itself already.

The way I read the AvWeek article, the impression I get is that EASA is not satisfied with Boeing's "proven engineering approach" and sees vulnerabilities because it uses homogeneous hardware and software.
 
United857
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:07 pm

I think part of the issue is the fact that the 777X fly-by-wire system is not exactly a full carryover of the original 777's system.

The original 777 only used closed loop control (C*u control law) for the elevators based on pitch rate/G-load. The ailerons and rudder, while FBW, were open loop and the deflection was directly proportional to control wheel/rudder pedal input. With the 777X, Boeing is adopting 787's full 3-axis closed-loop FBW system that uses P-Beta control law for roll/yaw control where roll rate is used for aileron input and a constant yaw rate/roll couple that is independent of airspeed is used for rudder input. I think this area of change is where the EASA is inspecting more closely.
 
iflyabunch
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 05, 2021 11:04 pm

Stitch wrote:
I'm assuming the 777X's flight-control system architecture is based on that used in the 777 and that system seems to be working acceptably safely based on the last two decades of in-service data.


Not to be rude, but wasn't this the same logic with the MAX? New engines, new wing, new engine position, different weights, center of mass, etc.... there are probably enough significant changes in the physical structure of the plane that required significant flight control updates. I obviously have no idea if this is actually the case, but it seems feasible.
 
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seahawks7757
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:55 am

I was out at BFI on Thursday, I managed to get N779XZ blasting off for Fairbanks. It was interesting that they request to go down to Zulu, first time I have ever heard this at Boeing Field, they then lifted off in what appeared to be less then 4K feet, absolutely insane how quick it climbed. Nice view for the Horizon Q400 on final for SeaTac.

ImageN779XZ Boeing Company 777-9X by Brandon Farris, on Flickr

ImageN779XZ Boeing Company 777-9X by Brandon Farris, on Flickr

ImageN779XZ Boeing Company 777-9X by Brandon Farris, on Flickr

Boeing 002 and 001 also went up. A very busy thursday for the flight test teams. Here are photos of 002, still need to upload images of 001 online.

ImageN779XX Boeing Company 777-9X by Brandon Farris, on Flickr

ImageN779XX Boeing Company 777-9X by Brandon Farris, on Flickr

ImageN779XX Boeing Company 777-9X by Brandon Farris, on Flickr
 
BEG2IAH
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 07, 2021 8:08 am

Awesome pictures!!! I wish there was a video of one of those powerful takeoffs.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 07, 2021 2:13 pm

seahawks7757 wrote:
I was out at BFI on Thursday, I managed to get N779XZ blasting off for Fairbanks. It was interesting that they request to go down to Zulu, first time I have ever heard this at Boeing Field, they then lifted off in what appeared to be less then 4K feet, absolutely insane how quick it climbed. Nice view for the Horizon Q400 on final for SeaTac.

Congrats on getting such excellent photos, and thank you for sharing them!
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:23 pm

United857 wrote:
I think part of the issue is the fact that the 777X fly-by-wire system is not exactly a full carryover of the original 777's system.

The original 777 only used closed loop control (C*u control law) for the elevators based on pitch rate/G-load. The ailerons and rudder, while FBW, were open loop and the deflection was directly proportional to control wheel/rudder pedal input. With the 777X, Boeing is adopting 787's full 3-axis closed-loop FBW system that uses P-Beta control law for roll/yaw control where roll rate is used for aileron input and a constant yaw rate/roll couple that is independent of airspeed is used for rudder input. I think this area of change is where the EASA is inspecting more closely.

I would love to know the detail differences. My FBW course spend 10 hours on the old 777 system as a prelude to newer FBW systems including redundancy, network, power supplies, control loops, failure modes, error checking, alternate command paths, chip architecture.

Does anyone have a link to a more in depth summary of the 777x FBW?

Lightsaber
 
United857
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
United857 wrote:
I think part of the issue is the fact that the 777X fly-by-wire system is not exactly a full carryover of the original 777's system.

The original 777 only used closed loop control (C*u control law) for the elevators based on pitch rate/G-load. The ailerons and rudder, while FBW, were open loop and the deflection was directly proportional to control wheel/rudder pedal input. With the 777X, Boeing is adopting 787's full 3-axis closed-loop FBW system that uses P-Beta control law for roll/yaw control where roll rate is used for aileron input and a constant yaw rate/roll couple that is independent of airspeed is used for rudder input. I think this area of change is where the EASA is inspecting more closely.

I would love to know the detail differences. My FBW course spend 10 hours on the old 777 system as a prelude to newer FBW systems including redundancy, network, power supplies, control loops, failure modes, error checking, alternate command paths, chip architecture.

Does anyone have a link to a more in depth summary of the 777x FBW?

Lightsaber

I'd like to know more as well, if anyone has information that they're allowed to share. I'm also interested in seeing what happened to the original 777's cable-controlled backup for spoilers #4 and #11 and alternate stabilizer trim. Have those been eliminated in the 777X as well, like the 787, which is full FBW with no cable-controlled backup at all?
 
boyspot
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:29 pm

WH001 has the skid block fitted under the rear fuselage so looks like minimum unstick testing is either underway or imminent.

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