Also, why is it taking so long to certify? This is longer than it would take a new program (without problems during the certification program like the 787 experienced), seems like there are changes in systems that need to be made and certified from scratch.
That has been the key question on my mind since the 2022 target was announced. It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?
This is getting really frustrating. We're being told a derivative of an aircraft with a superb safety record is more dangerous than one that had two crashes, but not being told why. There are only comments from unnamed sources in a recent Aviation Week article about potential single points of failure that will take 3 years to fix.
Or if that is not the message, then why are we being told the 777X problems will take significantly longer to fix than the MAX problems? The regulators are only saying they will make a deep review of the design.
The only thing concrete we do know is that airlines do not need new VLA's right now. This makes me wonder if a big part of this is that Emirates and the rest have negotiated new delivery dates in 2023 or 2024, so Boeing is planning to take their time on the certification and letting that be the cover story.
Just to show the level of change between the 777 and the 777X
Woah interesting, no wonder the certification is protracted (I know there are many other factors at play here). Might as well have been a new model!
That's interesting, even despite the lack of information given on how that number was determined. Let's be conservative and estimate based on it that the 777X certification will take 100% as long as a cleansheet as a result.
That does not explain 2023.