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VCVSpotter
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 08, 2021 10:35 pm

boyspot wrote:
WH001 has the skid block fitted under the rear fuselage so looks like minimum unstick testing is either underway or imminent.


I believe that for previous wide-body programs (748/787), this has occurred at Victorville (VCV) or Edwards AFB (EDW). With N779XZ venturing up to Alaska, I wouldn’t be surprised to see N779XW fly down to SoCal sooner than later.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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Faro
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 9:17 am

More delays...TC says deliveries now unlikely before Q1 2024...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... AA0Y2?il=0


Faro
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:00 pm

Faro wrote:
More delays...TC says deliveries now unlikely before Q1 2024...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emir ... AA0Y2?il=0


Faro

I wouldn’t classify this as more delays. Everybody knew what late 2023 pretty much meant 2024.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:18 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I wouldn’t classify this as more delays. Everybody knew what late 2023 pretty much meant 2024.



It was only a month ago that people were still pointing out that first delivery for EK was in 2022 and only a week or so ago where it was confirmed it was pushed back to 2023. Now it looks like 2024 at the earliest. So if people were thinking 2022 a month ago I doubt they were thinking 2023 meant 2024.

Also, why is it taking so long to certify? This is longer than it would take a new program (without problems during the certification program like the 787 experienced), seems like there are changes in systems that need to be made and certified from scratch.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 12:22 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I wouldn’t classify this as more delays. Everybody knew what late 2023 pretty much meant 2024.



It was only a month ago that people were still pointing out that first delivery for EK was in 2022 and only a week or so ago where it was confirmed it was pushed back to 2023. Now it looks like 2024 at the earliest. So if people were thinking 2022 a month ago I doubt they were thinking 2023 meant 2024.

Also, why is it taking so long to certify? This is longer than it would take a new program (without problems during the certification program like the 787 experienced), seems like there are changes in systems that need to be made and certified from scratch.

Well because 2022 was just 2022. No early no late. That’s pretty much what they were saying. The moment Boeing said “late 2023” even simple flying knew that probably meant 2024 at best.

Yeah you can read the aviation network article about why it’s being held up so long
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:43 pm

I was listening to the CAPA live summit with Tim Clark and of course he talks about the 777X and he says the 380s will be here till about 2035. But as the 777Xs begin to come online they will replace the 380s. I mean we all knew. That’s just the first time I’ve heard him actually say they’ll replace the 380s and not the 777s.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:52 pm

With a decent lineup of models it is somewhat immaterial which ones are ordered and which ones are delivered. It gives airlines the options to react to changing markets while still having to order several years in advance. It is even better if an airline can wait until 36, even better 24 months before delivery to adjust just what plane they are going to get. Ideally the net profit, while it may vary from program to program, will remain predictable and meet all over margins.
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 2:12 pm

enzo011 wrote:
It was only a month ago that people were still pointing out that first delivery for EK was in 2022 and only a week or so ago where it was confirmed it was pushed back to 2023. Now it looks like 2024 at the earliest. So if people were thinking 2022 a month ago I doubt they were thinking 2023 meant 2024.

Also, why is it taking so long to certify? This is longer than it would take a new program (without problems during the certification program like the 787 experienced), seems like there are changes in systems that need to be made and certified from scratch.

As mentioned, the answers to 'why' are in the AvWeek article. It's hard to hold schedule when the rules of the game are changing around you. Yes they are changing because of Boeing's own poor performance on MAX, that's one of the many prices being paid. And then we consider that with low amounts of traffic for the last year and presumably a few more years, the current world wide body fleet is not racking up the projected miles. Ala SQ, it probably would not matter much if the planes ended up delayed to 2026 never mind 2023. By that time STC's replacement should be in place and we'll probably see a lot of changes in how EK operates.
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:22 pm

Update for the, until now assembled or allocated, 777-9 line numbers.

L/N 1567 C/N 64240 B777-9 N779XW BOEING COMPANY (WH001)
L/N 1574 C/N 64241 B777-9 N779XX BOEING COMPANY (WH002)
L/N 1581 C/N 65799 B777-9 N779XY BOEING COMPANY (WH003), LUFTHANSA D-ABT? (could become WH121 after modifications to LH standard ?)
L/N 1587 C/N 65800 B777-9 N779XZ BOEING COMPANY (WH004) LUFTHANSA D-ABTI (could become WH122 after modifications to LH standard ? )
L/N 1605 C/N 61935 B777-9 N779PV A6-EZD EMIRATES (WH006)
L/N 1611 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZT EMIRATES (WH007)
L/N 1615 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZM EMIRATES (WH008)
L/N 1620 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZA EMIRATES (WH009)
L/N 1624 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZB EMIRATES (WH010)
L/N 1629 C/N 61533 B777-9 JA071A ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS (WH141)
L/N 1633 C/N 61534 B777-9 JA072A ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS (WH142)
L/N 1638 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTA LUFTHANSA (WH123)
L/N 1642 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZE EMIRATES (WH011)?
L/N 1647 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH012)?
L/N 1651 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH013)?
L/N 1656 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BKA QATAR (WH191)
L/N 1659 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH014)
L/N 1668 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BKC QATAR (WH192)
L/N 1670 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTB LUFTHANSA (WH124)
L/N 1672 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BK? QATAR (WH193)
L/N 1674 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTC LUFTHANSA (WH125?)
L/N 1677 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTD LUFTHANSA (WH126?)
L/N 1680 C/N XXXXX B777-9 unk
L/N 1682 C/N XXXXX B777-9 unk
L/N 1685 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTE LUFTHANSA (WH127?)
L/N 1688 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABT? LUFTHANSA ? (WH128?)

? = only confirmed by one (1) source, or not known last digit of registration.

Pls, add corrections or additions via this thread

.
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wesk
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:36 pm

747classic wrote:
Update for the, until now assembled or allocated, 777-9 line numbers.

L/N 1567 C/N 64240 B777-9 N779XW BOEING COMPANY (WH001)
L/N 1574 C/N 64241 B777-9 N779XX BOEING COMPANY (WH002)
L/N 1581 C/N 65799 B777-9 N779XY BOEING COMPANY (WH003), LUFTHANSA D-ABT? (could become WH121 after modifications to LH standard ?)
L/N 1587 C/N 65800 B777-9 N779XZ BOEING COMPANY (WH004) LUFTHANSA D-ABTI (could become WH122 after modifications to LH standard ? )
L/N 1605 C/N 61935 B777-9 N779PV A6-EZD EMIRATES (WH006)
L/N 1611 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZT EMIRATES (WH007)
L/N 1615 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZM EMIRATES (WH008)
L/N 1620 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZA EMIRATES (WH009)
L/N 1624 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZB EMIRATES (WH010)
L/N 1629 C/N 61533 B777-9 JA071A ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS (WH141)
L/N 1633 C/N 61534 B777-9 JA072A ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS (WH142)
L/N 1638 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTA LUFTHANSA (WH123)
L/N 1642 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZE EMIRATES (WH011)?
L/N 1647 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH012)?
L/N 1651 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH013)?
L/N 1656 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BKA QATAR (WH191)
L/N 1659 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH014)
L/N 1668 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BKC QATAR (WH192)
L/N 1670 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTB LUFTHANSA (WH124)
L/N 1672 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BK? QATAR (WH193)
L/N 1674 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTC LUFTHANSA (WH125?)
L/N 1677 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTD LUFTHANSA (WH126?)
L/N 1680 C/N XXXXX B777-9 unk
L/N 1682 C/N XXXXX B777-9 unk
L/N 1685 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTE LUFTHANSA (WH127?)
L/N 1688 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABT? LUFTHANSA ? (WH128?)

? = only confirmed by one (1) source, or not known last digit of registration.

Pls, add corrections or additions via this thread

.

I believe WH003 will become D-ABTE.
 
PlanesAtPaine
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:23 am

747classic wrote:
Update for the, until now assembled or allocated, 777-9 line numbers.

L/N 1567 C/N 64240 B777-9 N779XW BOEING COMPANY (WH001)
L/N 1574 C/N 64241 B777-9 N779XX BOEING COMPANY (WH002)
L/N 1581 C/N 65799 B777-9 N779XY BOEING COMPANY (WH003), LUFTHANSA D-ABT? (could become WH121 after modifications to LH standard ?)
L/N 1587 C/N 65800 B777-9 N779XZ BOEING COMPANY (WH004) LUFTHANSA D-ABTI (could become WH122 after modifications to LH standard ? )
L/N 1605 C/N 61935 B777-9 N779PV A6-EZD EMIRATES (WH006)
L/N 1611 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZT EMIRATES (WH007)
L/N 1615 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZM EMIRATES (WH008)
L/N 1620 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZA EMIRATES (WH009)
L/N 1624 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-EZB EMIRATES (WH010)
L/N 1629 C/N 61533 B777-9 JA071A ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS (WH141)
L/N 1633 C/N 61534 B777-9 JA072A ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS (WH142)
L/N 1638 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTA LUFTHANSA (WH123)
L/N 1642 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZE EMIRATES (WH011)?
L/N 1647 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH012)?
L/N 1651 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH013)?
L/N 1656 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BKA QATAR (WH191)
L/N 1659 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A6-AZ? EMIRATES (WH014)
L/N 1668 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BKC QATAR (WH192)
L/N 1670 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTB LUFTHANSA (WH124)
L/N 1672 C/N XXXXX B777-9 A7-BK? QATAR (WH193)
L/N 1674 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTC LUFTHANSA (WH125?)
L/N 1677 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTD LUFTHANSA (WH126?)
L/N 1680 C/N XXXXX B777-9 unk
L/N 1682 C/N XXXXX B777-9 unk
L/N 1685 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABTE LUFTHANSA (WH127?)
L/N 1688 C/N XXXXX B777-9 D-ABT? LUFTHANSA ? (WH128?)

? = only confirmed by one (1) source, or not known last digit of registration.

Pls, add corrections or additions via this thread

.


I have
L/N 1680 C/N 61550 B777-9 JA073A ALL NIPPON AIRWAYS (WH143)
L/N 1682 C/N 61939 B777-9 A6-EZL EMIRATES (WH015)

Though the EAD regs seem more uncertain so I'm not sure if EZL will stick.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 12, 2021 5:29 am

The list is about a year old. The EK allocations have changed at least twice to my knowledge since then so all those can be ignored. As it'll be another 3 years before any of them are delivered + factor in the current global situation which only looks to be worsening, I strongly suspect many of those in the list will be reallocated, after spending considerable time at VCV.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:53 am

Video of 777X N777XZ WH004 departing FAI after cold soaking testing

https://twitter.com/AeronewsGlobal/stat ... 39906?s=20
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Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 4:07 pm

We have now reached 1000 flight test hours.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:43 pm

So quick update from today-

WH001 filed to go to MT07 yesterday but ended up scrubbing its flight plan. Had filed for 0930 at about 0830. I hung around for a while waiting and the cowling on the left engine was open. Also had the engine run gate near it so it seems it was having some sort of issue with it. As of this afternoon it’s still open. Unknown if the right engine was having any issues. Couldn’t get a view of it.

WH002 has been moved from the flight line to the big Boeing hangar. Not sure what’s being added or removed from it.
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mattcawby
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:54 am

seahawks7757 wrote:
So quick update from today-

WH001 filed to go to MT07 yesterday but ended up scrubbing its flight plan. Had filed for 0930 at about 0830. I hung around for a while waiting and the cowling on the left engine was open. Also had the engine run gate near it so it seems it was having some sort of issue with it. As of this afternoon it’s still open. Unknown if the right engine was having any issues. Couldn’t get a view of it.

WH002 has been moved from the flight line to the big Boeing hangar. Not sure what’s being added or removed from it.


The WH001 avionics flight test was canceled due to a backup generator oil leak. It will be ferried to KCSM next week for flight testing.

WH002 is in the hangar for fuel system inspections to check fuel valve and tubing repairs.
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:05 am

mattcawby wrote:
seahawks7757 wrote:
So quick update from today-

WH001 filed to go to MT07 yesterday but ended up scrubbing its flight plan. Had filed for 0930 at about 0830. I hung around for a while waiting and the cowling on the left engine was open. Also had the engine run gate near it so it seems it was having some sort of issue with it. As of this afternoon it’s still open. Unknown if the right engine was having any issues. Couldn’t get a view of it.

WH002 has been moved from the flight line to the big Boeing hangar. Not sure what’s being added or removed from it.


The WH001 avionics flight test was canceled due to a backup generator oil leak. It will be ferried to KCSM next week for flight testing.

WH002 is in the hangar for fuel system inspections to check fuel valve and tubing repairs.



Thanks for sharing Matt! Nothing sucks more then sitting around a couple of hours waiting for it to go and then nothing happens. But that’s the way it is sometimes.
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:08 pm

777-9 N779XW flying BFI-CSM today as Mattcawby originally announced. This is the first visit of a 777-9 to CSM, or indeed to Oklahoma.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE1

777-9 N779XZ filed a rather lengthy flight, BFI-BFI 12PM - 8:08PM as BOE4 and spanning roughly 5 states in the Northern/North-Western US.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE4
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:18 am

https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/ ... 87072?s=21

Just to show the level of change between the 777 and the 777X
 
nycbjr
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:50 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/1364818235065987072?s=21

Just to show the level of change between the 777 and the 777X


Woah interesting, no wonder the certification is protracted (I know there are many other factors at play here). Might as well have been a new model!
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:10 pm

Well for "baseline" are we comparing this to the original 777-200 as first certified in1995? I could see close to 90% differences compared to that model. Compared to a 777-300ER, however? I do not believe the differences are that large.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:22 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well for "baseline" are we comparing this to the original 777-200 as first certified in1995? I could see close to 90% differences compared to that model. Compared to a 777-300ER, however? I do not believe the differences are that large.

I agree, but if 77X truly is taking 787 systems updates, it's going to be a very large change from even the W.

I think Boeing made the decision to do 787 systems updates during the lax FAA regime and would probably be rethinking it if they knew in the end they'd need to add two years to the schedule due to increased regulatory scrutiny.
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United857
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:30 pm

Stitch wrote:
Well for "baseline" are we comparing this to the original 777-200 as first certified in1995? I could see close to 90% differences compared to that model. Compared to a 777-300ER, however? I do not believe the differences are that large.

There are very significant changes to the 777X compared even to the -300ER, most significantly a completely new wing that is now CFRP instead of aluminum. I don't think we've ever had a derivative aircraft that has changed the fundamental construction material on a such a major structure prior to the 777X.
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 5:28 pm

United857 wrote:
There are very significant changes to the 777X compared even to the -300ER, most significantly a completely new wing that is now CFRP instead of aluminum. I don't think we've ever had a derivative aircraft that has changed the fundamental construction material on a such a major structure prior to the 777X.


Sure, but the wing is not going to drive changing 90% of the airframe on a certification basis - especially compared to the 777-300ER.

As such, I believe this is comparing the 777-9 to the 777-200 and also takes into account all the changes that happened with the Long Range 777 family on top of the specific changes between the 777X and the LR777 family.

And in addition to the wing, systems would be a major driver change from the LR777, as Revelation noted.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:57 pm

enzo011 wrote:
Also, why is it taking so long to certify? This is longer than it would take a new program (without problems during the certification program like the 787 experienced), seems like there are changes in systems that need to be made and certified from scratch.


That has been the key question on my mind since the 2022 target was announced. It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?

This is getting really frustrating. We're being told a derivative of an aircraft with a superb safety record is more dangerous than one that had two crashes, but not being told why. There are only comments from unnamed sources in a recent Aviation Week article about potential single points of failure that will take 3 years to fix.

Or if that is not the message, then why are we being told the 777X problems will take significantly longer to fix than the MAX problems? The regulators are only saying they will make a deep review of the design.

The only thing concrete we do know is that airlines do not need new VLA's right now. This makes me wonder if a big part of this is that Emirates and the rest have negotiated new delivery dates in 2023 or 2024, so Boeing is planning to take their time on the certification and letting that be the cover story.

nycbjr wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/1364818235065987072?s=21

Just to show the level of change between the 777 and the 777X


Woah interesting, no wonder the certification is protracted (I know there are many other factors at play here). Might as well have been a new model!


That's interesting, even despite the lack of information given on how that number was determined. Let's be conservative and estimate based on it that the 777X certification will take 100% as long as a cleansheet as a result.

That does not explain 2023.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:02 pm

At CORSIA meetings, pre and post informal discussions with regulatory authorities which deviated to MAX and certification issues, promoted the introduction of an X% change threshold, based on the original model, with capped scaling of key components and age. Once these thresholds had been reached, would trigger a completely new model certification, using the latest applicable standards, with no exemptions.

The MAX, X and possible A322 were thought to be examples where the threshold would be triggered.
 
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:02 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
Also, why is it taking so long to certify? This is longer than it would take a new program (without problems during the certification program like the 787 experienced), seems like there are changes in systems that need to be made and certified from scratch.


That has been the key question on my mind since the 2022 target was announced. It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?

This is getting really frustrating. We're being told a derivative of an aircraft with a superb safety record is more dangerous than one that had two crashes, but not being told why. There are only comments from unnamed sources in a recent Aviation Week article about potential single points of failure that will take 3 years to fix.

Or if that is not the message, then why are we being told the 777X problems will take significantly longer to fix than the MAX problems? The regulators are only saying they will make a deep review of the design.

The only thing concrete we do know is that airlines do not need new VLA's right now. This makes me wonder if a big part of this is that Emirates and the rest have negotiated new delivery dates in 2023 or 2024, so Boeing is planning to take their time on the certification and letting that be the cover story.

nycbjr wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/1364818235065987072?s=21

Just to show the level of change between the 777 and the 777X


Woah interesting, no wonder the certification is protracted (I know there are many other factors at play here). Might as well have been a new model!


That's interesting, even despite the lack of information given on how that number was determined. Let's be conservative and estimate based on it that the 777X certification will take 100% as long as a cleansheet as a result.

That does not explain 2023.

If testing/certification began as a derivative program, then switched to all new certificate in the of middle of certification, certification will take longer than if they planned for it to be an all new certificate from the get go. They have to go back and validate things, possible alter designs, and submit paperwork that they never anticipated doing. Which may possibly require retesting and resubmition of certification work already performed.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:44 pm

Polot wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
enzo011 wrote:
Also, why is it taking so long to certify? This is longer than it would take a new program (without problems during the certification program like the 787 experienced), seems like there are changes in systems that need to be made and certified from scratch.


That has been the key question on my mind since the 2022 target was announced. It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?

This is getting really frustrating. We're being told a derivative of an aircraft with a superb safety record is more dangerous than one that had two crashes, but not being told why. There are only comments from unnamed sources in a recent Aviation Week article about potential single points of failure that will take 3 years to fix.

Or if that is not the message, then why are we being told the 777X problems will take significantly longer to fix than the MAX problems? The regulators are only saying they will make a deep review of the design.

The only thing concrete we do know is that airlines do not need new VLA's right now. This makes me wonder if a big part of this is that Emirates and the rest have negotiated new delivery dates in 2023 or 2024, so Boeing is planning to take their time on the certification and letting that be the cover story.

nycbjr wrote:

Woah interesting, no wonder the certification is protracted (I know there are many other factors at play here). Might as well have been a new model!


That's interesting, even despite the lack of information given on how that number was determined. Let's be conservative and estimate based on it that the 777X certification will take 100% as long as a cleansheet as a result.

That does not explain 2023.

If testing/certification began as a derivative program, then switched to all new certificate in the of middle of certification, certification will take longer than if they planned for it to be an all new certificate from the get go. They have to go back and validate things, possible alter designs, and submit paperwork that they never anticipated doing. Which may possibly require retesting and resubmition of certification work already performed.


Parts of the 777x that were changed from the 777 already needed certification.

The remaining 10-15% of the parts of the 777x that passed certification on the 777 should pass again unless they are affected by new regulations introduced in the interim. I suppose additionally we should consider constituents of that 10-15% that passed certification for the 777, and are unchanged, but on review have been found to be affected by parts that changed.

The cycle of reviewing for updated certification needs, making design or programming changes, preparing the necessary documentation, and submitting it to the FAA for review and/or testing is also common to what the MAX went through.

Due to the degree of change on the 777X, I could see there being more changes to be reviewed in depth than on the MAX, but unless it is a grossly larger amount, Boeing should have the engineering resources even after their downsizing to work them in parallel, just like multiple MAX issues were worked in parallel.

Hence why I suggest that it appears either Boeing has far more work to do on the 777X than the MAX, or else Boeing is not in a rush to complete the work.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:09 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Polot wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:

That has been the key question on my mind since the 2022 target was announced. It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?

This is getting really frustrating. We're being told a derivative of an aircraft with a superb safety record is more dangerous than one that had two crashes, but not being told why. There are only comments from unnamed sources in a recent Aviation Week article about potential single points of failure that will take 3 years to fix.

Or if that is not the message, then why are we being told the 777X problems will take significantly longer to fix than the MAX problems? The regulators are only saying they will make a deep review of the design.

The only thing concrete we do know is that airlines do not need new VLA's right now. This makes me wonder if a big part of this is that Emirates and the rest have negotiated new delivery dates in 2023 or 2024, so Boeing is planning to take their time on the certification and letting that be the cover story.



That's interesting, even despite the lack of information given on how that number was determined. Let's be conservative and estimate based on it that the 777X certification will take 100% as long as a cleansheet as a result.

That does not explain 2023.

If testing/certification began as a derivative program, then switched to all new certificate in the of middle of certification, certification will take longer than if they planned for it to be an all new certificate from the get go. They have to go back and validate things, possible alter designs, and submit paperwork that they never anticipated doing. Which may possibly require retesting and resubmition of certification work already performed.


Parts of the 777x that were changed from the 777 already needed certification.

The remaining 10-15% of the parts of the 777x that passed certification on the 777 should pass again unless they are affected by new regulations introduced in the interim. I suppose additionally we should consider constituents of that 10-15% that passed certification for the 777, and are unchanged, but on review have been found to be affected by parts that changed.

The cycle of reviewing for updated certification needs, making design or programming changes, preparing the necessary documentation, and submitting it to the FAA for review and/or testing is also common to what the MAX went through.

Due to the degree of change on the 777X, I could see there being more changes to be reviewed in depth than on the MAX, but unless it is a grossly larger amount, Boeing should have the engineering resources even after their downsizing to work them in parallel, just like multiple MAX issues were worked in parallel.

Hence why I suggest that it appears either Boeing has far more work to do on the 777X than the MAX, or else Boeing is not in a rush to complete the work.

I don’t think the 777X in its current form is unsafe. There’s an aviation network article about this, I think it’s very much a question of what are the differences between this and the 300ER? How does that affect pilot reaction? Deeper analysis into the changes, especially folding wingtips. EASA is also demanding more from the redundancy of the fly by wire system, FAA and Boeing have said it has worked well for over 18 years on the 777-300ER. Apparently EASA is just use to Airbus’ version of redundancy, THEN you have the redesign of the actuator controller electronics. Someone with more knowledge on that can elaborate for us. Link below:

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... s-concerns

EDIT. Ignore article. Only just realised you referenced it
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:16 pm

Long story short. This is being certified as a new aircraft. The goal post is always moving at the moment. So I’m not sure if it has stopped moving?

Certification had changed completely EASA now has a larger role to play. Then let’s not forget the DOJ report.

I can see why this is taking so long
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:42 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?


It could just be that Boeing is taking their time since none of their customers are ready to take delivery. If you know it will be years before EIS, why rush it just to have the planes sitting around? You could arguably take the additional time to work out squawks found before EIS rather than after, improving the reliability percentages at EIS.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 9:47 pm

Stitch wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?


It could just be that Boeing is taking their time since none of their customers are ready to take delivery. If you know it will be years before EIS, why rush it just to have the planes sitting around? You could arguably take the additional time to work out squawks found before EIS rather than after, improving the reliability percentages at EIS.

Good point as well. The 777X should come with 77W reliability upon entry. Especially because that’s the core of the 777 brand. Literally every time an airline describes the 777 they always say two things: it’s efficient and it’s reliable. I believe they have the efficiency but they have time to improve the reliability as much as possible. I also think the revamped certification process will contribute to the aircraft being the best version of itself upon EIS
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:28 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?


It could just be that Boeing is taking their time since none of their customers are ready to take delivery. If you know it will be years before EIS, why rush it just to have the planes sitting around? You could arguably take the additional time to work out squawks found before EIS rather than after, improving the reliability percentages at EIS.

Good point as well. The 777X should come with 77W reliability upon entry. Especially because that’s the core of the 777 brand. Literally every time an airline describes the 777 they always say two things: it’s efficient and it’s reliable. I believe they have the efficiency but they have time to improve the reliability as much as possible. I also think the revamped certification process will contribute to the aircraft being the best version of itself upon EIS


Thing that always surprises me is that they are still producing production frames. Each of these will need to be retrofitted with any changes that come out of testing. This sounds more and more expensive at a time when Boeing need to minimise cost.
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 10:59 pm

StTim wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Stitch wrote:

It could just be that Boeing is taking their time since none of their customers are ready to take delivery. If you know it will be years before EIS, why rush it just to have the planes sitting around? You could arguably take the additional time to work out squawks found before EIS rather than after, improving the reliability percentages at EIS.

Good point as well. The 777X should come with 77W reliability upon entry. Especially because that’s the core of the 777 brand. Literally every time an airline describes the 777 they always say two things: it’s efficient and it’s reliable. I believe they have the efficiency but they have time to improve the reliability as much as possible. I also think the revamped certification process will contribute to the aircraft being the best version of itself upon EIS


Thing that always surprises me is that they are still producing production frames. Each of these will need to be retrofitted with any changes that come out of testing. This sounds more and more expensive at a time when Boeing need to minimise cost.

It seems strange to me as well because they have not done this before on a new program. Maybe because it’s to keep the line going for the sake of the supply chain? Since the 777 and 777X share the Same line? But I wonder by October 2023 (which is over 2.5 years away) how many 777X frames would’ve been built. I remember van Cheney saying they’re slowing them down significantly or something along those lines
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:26 pm

Stitch wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
It seems typical for a new design to take around 18 months between first flight and entry into service. We now have a derivative targeted for 42-48 months. Why so long?


It could just be that Boeing is taking their time since none of their customers are ready to take delivery. If you know it will be years before EIS, why rush it just to have the planes sitting around? You could arguably take the additional time to work out squawks found before EIS rather than after, improving the reliability percentages at EIS.


That is basically my suspicion. Unproven of course; I could be wrong.

However, I get the sense that the majority viewpoint in this thread so far is that the changes Boeing has mentioned making are what drives the late 2023+ time frame for EIS.

I noticed in the earnings call that the CEO's words seemed carefully chosen to avoid a clear indication which of several factors mentioned is actually driving the EIS timing.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:53 am

Things that have changed on the 777X.

New systems and changes in the cockpit to be closer to 787.

New Wingbox and Wing

New Gear, New Engines, New tail

New upper lobe fuselage frames.

New Interior and interior systems

Skins changed due to lengthening.

Basically all that is left is some systems, the cross section so you can use a lot of the same tooling and presumably the lower part of the frame.

Yep I can see 90% new.
 
UA748i
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:33 am

morrisond wrote:
Things that have changed on the 777X.

New systems and changes in the cockpit to be closer to 787.

New Wingbox and Wing

New Gear, New Engines, New tail

New upper lobe fuselage frames.

New Interior and interior systems

Skins changed due to lengthening.

Basically all that is left is some systems, the cross section so you can use a lot of the same tooling and presumably the lower part of the frame.

Yep I can see 90% new.


Could Boeing have given the 777X a new tailcone that is like the 787, like they did with the MAX? Would there had been any benefit from a tapered tip rather than the traditional "flathead?"
 
744SPX
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:05 am

UA748i wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Things that have changed on the 777X.

New systems and changes in the cockpit to be closer to 787.

New Wingbox and Wing

New Gear, New Engines, New tail

New upper lobe fuselage frames.

New Interior and interior systems

Skins changed due to lengthening.

Basically all that is left is some systems, the cross section so you can use a lot of the same tooling and presumably the lower part of the frame.

Yep I can see 90% new.


Could Boeing have given the 777X a new tailcone that is like the 787, like they did with the MAX? Would there had been any benefit from a tapered tip rather than the traditional "flathead?"




I doubt it- for starters, there is nothing traditional about the flathead or "screwdriver" tail cone. Its newer tech (1990's) and not in any way aerodynamically inferior to the 787 style tail-cone (which is technically a late 1970's design).
 
Armadillo1
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:48 am

Opus99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/satcom_guru/status/1364818235065987072?s=21

Just to show the level of change between the 777 and the 777X

actually, interesting is changes in 767
 
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enzo011
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:19 am

So it seems like Boeing were hoping to certify what is essentially a new aircraft as a derivative. This would have saved billions on certification cost and time, so delivered could be done sooner and cash could come in on the balance sheet. But they have been caught out and now have to certify the aircraft as a new program. I still don't know why it is taking this much longer than the A350, as they will have multiple frames ready to fly unlike the A350 which had one for a long time before the second joined the fleet.

I don't buy the notion that they are waiting for the market, for a company that is suffering it makes very little sense to delay a program for years while still producing the frames at the same time. Would they rather have the cash in hand in 2022 from 10 frames delivered or face the penalties for the delay in 2024 and the risk of the airline looking at alternatives that are delivering? I guess we will find out in a few years what changes were made and how much this added to the delays.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:41 pm

BA to take delivery of its first 779 in 2024:

"Buried deep in a 91 page PDF containing British Airways’ owner’s, IAG, financial results, the group outlined its new 777X delivery timeline. As things stand, British Airways has 18 orders for the larger -9 variant of the aircraft. While not elaborating on how many would be delivered each year, IAG confirmed that BA would take its 18 planes in the four years from and including 2024 to 2027."

https://simpleflying.com/british-airway ... 777x-2024/
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:45 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
This is getting really frustrating. We're being told a derivative of an aircraft with a superb safety record is more dangerous than one that had two crashes, but not being told why. There are only comments from unnamed sources in a recent Aviation Week article about potential single points of failure that will take 3 years to fix.

Or if that is not the message, then why are we being told the 777X problems will take significantly longer to fix than the MAX problems? The regulators are only saying they will make a deep review of the design.

The only thing concrete we do know is that airlines do not need new VLA's right now. This makes me wonder if a big part of this is that Emirates and the rest have negotiated new delivery dates in 2023 or 2024, so Boeing is planning to take their time on the certification and letting that be the cover story.

There's a difference between being told something is dangerous vs being told we can't verify something is safe. The DoT IG report more or less says the later.

The "big" 777x delay could also be due to the lack of system diversity. If system diversity needs to be implemented, you could burn through three years pretty easily.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 4:53 pm

StTim wrote:
Thing that always surprises me is that they are still producing production frames. Each of these will need to be retrofitted with any changes that come out of testing. This sounds more and more expensive at a time when Boeing need to minimize cost.

Opus99 wrote:
It seems strange to me as well because they have not done this before on a new program.


Boeing did the same with the 787 and 737MAX and probably did it with their earlier programs, as well.

As alluded to, they need to keep the workforce skilled-up (and employed) and supporting the supply chain. And there are also contractual delivery dates with customers which means planes need to be built at a certain rate (of course, COVID has scuppered that requirement).

Of course, the hope/goal is that Change Incorporation will be minimal, even if that was certainly not the case with either the 787 or 767-2C.

Boeing has indeed significantly slowed the production rate of the 777X well below original plan due to airline deferrals and projected cancellations, so a fair number fewer frames will be produced over the timeframe than originally planned. And these frames will probably be able to have more time available for Change Incorporation and Quality Control.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 26, 2021 8:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
The "big" 777x delay could also be due to the lack of system diversity. If system diversity needs to be implemented, you could burn through three years pretty easily.


Is system diversity a requirement for EASA certification that has been excused in the past under the reciprocity agreement with the FAA, or are they instituting new requirements?

I haven't seen anything in the news about proposed rules that are going to significantly affect the 777X.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:26 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The "big" 777x delay could also be due to the lack of system diversity. If system diversity needs to be implemented, you could burn through three years pretty easily.

Is system diversity a requirement for EASA certification that has been excused in the past under the reciprocity agreement with the FAA, or are they instituting new requirements?

I haven't seen anything in the news about proposed rules that are going to significantly affect the 777X.

We seem to be in a realm where going beyond the regulations is what is expected and what is happening.

By the letter of the law the MAX doesn't need a third AoA source, look at all the MAXes flying around right now without such, never mind NGs.

EASA said they are safe, but they will be more safe with a third AoA source.

EASA said it will not certify MAX10 till it has a third AoA source, so that is what Boeing is doing.

None of us know what criteria is being used on 777X yet it just took a multi-year schedule slip even while test airplanes are flying and the factory is producing even more frames as we speak.

We have the one AvWeek report pointing at system diversity as an issue. It could be that, or it could be more of a 'death of a thousand cuts', who knows?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The "big" 777x delay could also be due to the lack of system diversity. If system diversity needs to be implemented, you could burn through three years pretty easily.

Is system diversity a requirement for EASA certification that has been excused in the past under the reciprocity agreement with the FAA, or are they instituting new requirements?

I haven't seen anything in the news about proposed rules that are going to significantly affect the 777X.

We seem to be in a realm where going beyond the regulations is what is expected and what is happening.

By the letter of the law the MAX doesn't need a third AoA source, look at all the MAXes flying around right now without such, never mind NGs.

EASA said they are safe, but they will be more safe with a third AoA source.

EASA said it will not certify MAX10 till it has a third AoA source, so that is what Boeing is doing.

None of us know what criteria is being used on 777X yet it just took a multi-year schedule slip even while test airplanes are flying and the factory is producing even more frames as we speak.

We have the one AvWeek report pointing at system diversity as an issue. It could be that, or it could be more of a 'death of a thousand cuts', who knows?

I am also assuming after these changes some tests will have to be run again? Especially around this change of actuator control electronics
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:29 pm

i'm seeing that WH004/N779XZ has been doing alot of sorties recently...has it began NAMS testing?
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE4
 
Opus99
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:24 am

TropicalSky wrote:
i'm seeing that WH004/N779XZ has been doing alot of sorties recently...has it began NAMS testing?
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE4

WH003 is scheduled to do NAMS testing
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:00 pm

thanks for the update

Opus99 wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
i'm seeing that WH004/N779XZ has been doing alot of sorties recently...has it began NAMS testing?
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE4

WH003 is scheduled to do NAMS testing
 
Opus99
Posts: 2222
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Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2021

Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:17 am

Question from me. Do we expect to see the 777X at this years Dubai Airshow? (Which is confirmed to be going ahead)
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