IND is no AUS but I do wonder if there's a chapter of the post-COVID recovery where we see a bit of a dump of seats in markets such as IND to try and wrestle away market share for the long-term, almost like what NW did back when ATA retreated and they burst on to the scene. Yes, the conditions are vastly different than they were then, but the incremental difference for DL or AA to add some P2P routes in addition to what they have now wouldn't be as significant as the build up of NW back then. And I've got to think there will still be incentive dollars from the state and city that could be tapped.
Slight tangent, but it is related to this:
The DOT O&D survey for Q4 2020 came out yesterday, it essentially is the public basis for PDEW measurements for route pairs in the US. It was very interesting to see how airline market share shifted in IND during COVID.
One route that caught my eye in particular was IND-BOS, while PDEW was only ~44 in Q4 (down from 250 in Q4 2019), AA passengers made up 40%
of that traffic compared to DL's 32%.
It wasn't just at BOS that AA gained market share, AA surpassed DL's market share on IND-RDU which was another DL stronghold from IND, and one of the strongest DL routes from RDU. AA was also much larger than DL on IND-LAX, and carried nearly 30 PDEW on IND-RSW in Q4 without even offering a nonstop.
Now, I understand that COVID caused certain market dynamics to temporarily change, however, I think this is a sign of things to come especially on routes like IND-BOS where DL just removed 1 of its frequencies permanently.
My eyes would be on AUS, RDU, or Florida if AA were to add additional p2p from IND.