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kavok
Posts: 947
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:42 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

"But Austin is just the start.

As noted in the release, this idea extends to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus (OH), Indianapolis, Memphis, Nashville, and Raleigh/Durham, among others. The increased service by American combined with the rolling back of service by Delta and United puts these in play. We’ve seen bits and pieces of this over the last couple weeks. There is the new Raleigh/Durham – Nashville flight and the Saturday-only flights into Orlando and the Caribbean from some of these very non-hubs. More is coming."
https://crankyflier.com/2021/04/21/amer ... w-flights/



On the fleet topic again, DL and UA used the pandemic to retire some of their fleet earlier than they probably would have. With the smaller fleet size now, DL (or UA) cannot serve all the destinations as well as it did from IND in 2019, market conditions non-withstanding.

Conversely for AA, they have been able to use the AS/B6 partnerships to free up frames in order to serve more new destinations. If AA can effectively hand off some of their west coast flying to AS, and also hand off some BOS/NYC flying to B6, that allows them to move their frames elsewhere and have the capacity in the system to grow IND in a way DL and UA can’t right now.
 
kavok
Posts: 947
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:54 pm

jplatts wrote:
kavok wrote:
The one other aspect to remember with DL, is that they just retired all of their 777s. Many of their new A350 deliveries had also been delayed as a result of the pandemic. What that effectively means is DL’s current widebody fleet is much smaller than it was in 2019.

As a result, DL cannot fly many of their former 2019 TATL/TPAC routes even if they wanted to (and could do so profitably). So it becomes an opportunity cost question, and that makes it that much harder for DL to serve IND-CDG.


AF could add IND-CDG nonstop service if there was enough demand to Europe from the IND market with the connections that AF would be able to offer to other European destinations through CDG.


So this is an interesting TATL situation that I will be curious to see how it plays out. And I mean more systemwide, not just IND related. AF/KL (and likely LH,BA,etc.) will probably all want to increase their US-European TATL service in summer 2022, as the US and Europe get vaccinated quicker than other places around the globe.

The challenge is DL pilots are not going to be happy if their percentage of the JV TATL flying erodes even further, if AF/KL adds more US-AMS/CDG flights and DL does not. As mentioned, much of DLs long haul growth constraints are fleet related, so they can’t grow (in the near term) fast enough because they don’t have the frames. For AF/KL, they can “grow” TATL flights by simply shifting frames that were flying to Asia/Africa to North America. So it will be interesting how that give and take plays out between the JVs, while not violating the terms of the pilot contacts.
 
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Boiler905
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 4:05 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:02 am

kavok wrote:
jplatts wrote:
kavok wrote:
The one other aspect to remember with DL, is that they just retired all of their 777s. Many of their new A350 deliveries had also been delayed as a result of the pandemic. What that effectively means is DL’s current widebody fleet is much smaller than it was in 2019.

As a result, DL cannot fly many of their former 2019 TATL/TPAC routes even if they wanted to (and could do so profitably). So it becomes an opportunity cost question, and that makes it that much harder for DL to serve IND-CDG.


AF could add IND-CDG nonstop service if there was enough demand to Europe from the IND market with the connections that AF would be able to offer to other European destinations through CDG.


So this is an interesting TATL situation that I will be curious to see how it plays out. And I mean more systemwide, not just IND related. AF/KL (and likely LH,BA,etc.) will probably all want to increase their US-European TATL service in summer 2022, as the US and Europe get vaccinated quicker than other places around the globe.

The challenge is DL pilots are not going to be happy if their percentage of the JV TATL flying erodes even further, if AF/KL adds more US-AMS/CDG flights and DL does not. As mentioned, much of DLs long haul growth constraints are fleet related, so they can’t grow (in the near term) fast enough because they don’t have the frames. For AF/KL, they can “grow” TATL flights by simply shifting frames that were flying to Asia/Africa to North America. So it will be interesting how that give and take plays out between the JVs, while not violating the terms of the pilot contacts.


I agree DL pilots would be upset about the JV flying on AF/KL from IND, but personally I think IND's next TATL service will be BA to LHR
Boiler Up
 
Runway765
Posts: 377
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:17 am

Boiler905 wrote:
kavok wrote:
jplatts wrote:

AF could add IND-CDG nonstop service if there was enough demand to Europe from the IND market with the connections that AF would be able to offer to other European destinations through CDG.


So this is an interesting TATL situation that I will be curious to see how it plays out. And I mean more systemwide, not just IND related. AF/KL (and likely LH,BA,etc.) will probably all want to increase their US-European TATL service in summer 2022, as the US and Europe get vaccinated quicker than other places around the globe.

The challenge is DL pilots are not going to be happy if their percentage of the JV TATL flying erodes even further, if AF/KL adds more US-AMS/CDG flights and DL does not. As mentioned, much of DLs long haul growth constraints are fleet related, so they can’t grow (in the near term) fast enough because they don’t have the frames. For AF/KL, they can “grow” TATL flights by simply shifting frames that were flying to Asia/Africa to North America. So it will be interesting how that give and take plays out between the JVs, while not violating the terms of the pilot contacts.


I agree DL pilots would be upset about the JV flying on AF/KL from IND, but personally I think IND's next TATL service will be BA to LHR


I doubt there will be any more adds by BA to midsized US markets anytime soon. They need to bring back the ones they added pre-pandemic first.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1445
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:09 am

Any news on the service grant that was originally going to Contour?
 
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Boiler905
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 4:05 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:25 pm

Runway765 wrote:
Boiler905 wrote:
kavok wrote:

So this is an interesting TATL situation that I will be curious to see how it plays out. And I mean more systemwide, not just IND related. AF/KL (and likely LH,BA,etc.) will probably all want to increase their US-European TATL service in summer 2022, as the US and Europe get vaccinated quicker than other places around the globe.

The challenge is DL pilots are not going to be happy if their percentage of the JV TATL flying erodes even further, if AF/KL adds more US-AMS/CDG flights and DL does not. As mentioned, much of DLs long haul growth constraints are fleet related, so they can’t grow (in the near term) fast enough because they don’t have the frames. For AF/KL, they can “grow” TATL flights by simply shifting frames that were flying to Asia/Africa to North America. So it will be interesting how that give and take plays out between the JVs, while not violating the terms of the pilot contacts.


I agree DL pilots would be upset about the JV flying on AF/KL from IND, but personally I think IND's next TATL service will be BA to LHR


I doubt there will be any more adds by BA to midsized US markets anytime soon. They need to bring back the ones they added pre-pandemic first.


I agree it is unlikely BA adds more midsized US markets, and I also think DL IND-CDG will return before any other airline announces IND TATL.

In the far chance another airline were to announce new IND TATL service, my (small) bet would be on BA :smile:
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ibthebigd
Posts: 431
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:36 pm

I think Aer Lingus could make DUB a gateway to Europe with the A321XLR

Doubt it would happen but we can dream.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
stlgph
Posts: 11363
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:59 pm

I would love to see Aer Lingus come in with the 321XLR.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
AC4500
Posts: 661
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:54 pm

jplatts wrote:
kavok wrote:
The one other aspect to remember with DL, is that they just retired all of their 777s. Many of their new A350 deliveries had also been delayed as a result of the pandemic. What that effectively means is DL’s current widebody fleet is much smaller than it was in 2019.

As a result, DL cannot fly many of their former 2019 TATL/TPAC routes even if they wanted to (and could do so profitably). So it becomes an opportunity cost question, and that makes it that much harder for DL to serve IND-CDG.


AF could add IND-CDG nonstop service if there was enough demand to Europe from the IND market with the connections that AF would be able to offer to other European destinations through CDG.

That is certainly possible. Although, IDK how interested AF would be in secondary U.S. markets when TATL demand begins to come back. If DL needs the route subsidized in order for success, than it's highly unlikely that AF could make IND-CDG work.
Next:
UA: PDX-ORD-BWI
WN: BWI-STL-PDX
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 6121
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:49 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Any news on the service grant that was originally going to Contour?


I'd check back in a year or two, I doubt anything new will happen on that front for a while.

AC4500 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
kavok wrote:
The one other aspect to remember with DL, is that they just retired all of their 777s. Many of their new A350 deliveries had also been delayed as a result of the pandemic. What that effectively means is DL’s current widebody fleet is much smaller than it was in 2019.

As a result, DL cannot fly many of their former 2019 TATL/TPAC routes even if they wanted to (and could do so profitably). So it becomes an opportunity cost question, and that makes it that much harder for DL to serve IND-CDG.


AF could add IND-CDG nonstop service if there was enough demand to Europe from the IND market with the connections that AF would be able to offer to other European destinations through CDG.

That is certainly possible. Although, IDK how interested AF would be in secondary U.S. markets when TATL demand begins to come back. If DL needs the route subsidized in order for success, than it's highly unlikely that AF could make IND-CDG work.


The route needed to be incentivized to *start* not to be successful, every mid-sized airport offered incentives for TATL flights: BNA, MSY, AUS, CLE, PIT, e.t.c.

The incentive money ran out in 2019, and Delta continued to operate it, said the route was successful, and was even increasing frequencies.

Not saying AF would be interested in this route, but IND will eventually get some sort of TATL back once demand warrants it, even if it is only summer seasonal.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
Indy
Posts: 4958
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:33 pm

When we get back to pre Covid numbers, there is more than enough demand to run a 767 (or similar sized jet) between IND and Europe on a daily basis during the summer and 3 to 5x weekly during other months. It isn't just the fact that seats sold well at high prices, but also that the belly was full of cargo. There is no doubt that the flight was very profitable for Delta, and if they don't pick the service back up, someone else will. The route has been proven. The only question that remains is how long will it take for IND to get back to pre Covid levels.
IND to RDU to OKC in 18 months. This is what my life has become.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 6121
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:02 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
ATL - 7
MSP - 6 (More frequencies than pre-covid, 2 mainline)
DTW- 6 (3 Mainline)
LGA - 3
JFK - 2 (Surprising)
BOS -2 (Finally returns)
SLC - 1 (Returns)
LAX - 1


This schedule was pushed to July,

SLC dropped for June, and DTW also decreased to 4x (still 3 mainline) for June.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:26 pm

I saw Sun Country signage for the first time today. Looks like their ticket counter will be next to G4 on the far south end of the terminal.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 6121
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:53 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
I guess WN is starting IND-MYR on June 6th.


I wonder what WN route is next....

My guesses in no particular order:

MIA
BNA
SAN
SAV
ECP
VPS
JAX
LAX
MDW

They've got these right now
Image


ECP & MIA both added
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:57 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Indy wrote:
I guess WN is starting IND-MYR on June 6th.


I wonder what WN route is next....

My guesses in no particular order:

MIA
BNA
SAN
SAV
ECP
VPS
JAX
LAX
MDW

They've got these right now
Image


ECP & MIA both added

Looks like both are Saturday only starting June 12th.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 6121
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 12:55 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

I wonder what WN route is next....

My guesses in no particular order:

MIA
BNA
SAN
SAV
ECP
VPS
JAX
LAX
MDW

They've got these right now
Image


ECP & MIA both added

Looks like both are Saturday only starting June 12th.


ECP actually starts June 6th, operating 5x weekly (no Tue/Wed)

SRQ bumped to 8x weekly (2x Sat)

STL cut, DAL/ATL/PHX see less frequency, LAS/MCO see more frequency vs. original schedule.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 6121
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:20 pm

Press Release:

"Increasing global connectivity: The creation of the Direct Flight Fund will allocate $10 million to support direct, regional and international flights to and from Indiana, which will provide a critical link in connecting Hoosier companies, residents and tourists to markets and destinations around the world."

https://mailchi.mp/iedc/news-indiana-ma ... sg5bet6jn7
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 431
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:20 pm

With Southwest adding ECP that puts IND at 14 different airports served in Florida. I would guess only ATL CLT and maybe DFW serve more in the state of Florida

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
stlgph
Posts: 11363
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:22 pm

stlgph wrote:
2021?

Florida. Florida. Florida.


This post aged well.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:43 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
With Southwest adding ECP that puts IND at 14 different airports served in Florida. I would guess only ATL CLT and maybe DFW serve more in the state of Florida

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


PHL gotta be up there right?
 
N292UX
Posts: 686
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:07 am

ibthebigd wrote:
With Southwest adding ECP that puts IND at 14 different airports served in Florida. I would guess only ATL CLT and maybe DFW serve more in the state of Florida

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Pretty sure DCA has 14 too.

MIA/MCO/TPA/FLL/RSW/PBI/JAX/PNS/SRQ/VPS/ECP/TLH/MLB/EYW
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:10 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Press Release:

"Increasing global connectivity: The creation of the Direct Flight Fund will allocate $10 million to support direct, regional and international flights to and from Indiana, which will provide a critical link in connecting Hoosier companies, residents and tourists to markets and destinations around the world."

https://mailchi.mp/iedc/news-indiana-ma ... sg5bet6jn7


Airport director saying he expects TATL to return, and when it does he expects it to be London.

ibthebigd wrote:
With Southwest adding ECP that puts IND at 14 different airports served in Florida. I would guess only ATL CLT and maybe DFW serve more in the state of Florida

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


IND-Florida is crazy. WN alone flies IND-MCO up to 9 or 10 times a day with no feed. Even during off-peak summer season WN is flying 22 Saturday flights on IND-Florida in June.

(See below)

Midwestindy wrote:
Expect additional service to Florida, INDRSW posted the best LF across WN's entire network for January, NK's INDRSW was #5 in theirs, and G4's INDPGD was #8 in Allegiant's network :

In terms of Q4 largest markets to Florida:
SRQ: IND was 6th largest market
RSW: IND was 7th (nearly larger than IAD/BWI/DCA combined), & does not include PGD
TPA: IND was 11th & does not include PIE


Nicknuzzii wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
With Southwest adding ECP that puts IND at 14 different airports served in Florida. I would guess only ATL CLT and maybe DFW serve more in the state of Florida

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


PHL gotta be up there right?


PHL is tied with IND I think, but BNA is also one that has more in addition to the ones mentioned above.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4326
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:12 am

BNA is 15. All 11 WN plus PGD, PIE, SFB, EYW
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 2:53 pm

June Schedule is almost set, pulled together some summary statistics:

Image
Image

Most destinations are returning, or getting replaced with new routes, in terms of upcoming route resumptions and new adds:

May 5th:
DL IND-JFK

May 6th:
AA IND-LAX
DL IND-LAX

May 27th:
UA IND-CHS (new)

May 28th:
G4 IND-BOS (new)
G4 IND-LAX (new)
SY IND-MSP (new)
UA IND-HHH (new)
UA IND-PWM (new)

June 3rd:
AA IND-BOS (new)

June 5th:
AA IND-MCO (new)
DL IND-BOS

June 6th:
WN IND-ECP (new)
WN IND-MYR (new)

June 11th:
NK IND-PNS (new)

June 12th:
WN IND-MIA (new)

July 7th:
DL IND-SLC (tentative)

August 4th:
G4 IND-RAP (temporary)

September 5th:
SY IND-MCO (new)
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 185
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 2:07 am

Nice work. These data also show the imbalance of traffic between A and B has gotten even wider this year. At 58% B and 42% A, there's nearly 50 percent more foot traffic on B.
Midwestindy wrote:
June Schedule is almost set, pulled together some summary statistics:

Image
Image

Most destinations are returning, or getting replaced with new routes, in terms of upcoming route resumptions and new adds:

May 5th:
DL IND-JFK

May 6th:
AA IND-LAX
DL IND-LAX

May 27th:
UA IND-CHS (new)

May 28th:
G4 IND-BOS (new)
G4 IND-LAX (new)
SY IND-MSP (new)
UA IND-HHH (new)
UA IND-PWM (new)

June 3rd:
AA IND-BOS (new)

June 5th:
AA IND-MCO (new)
DL IND-BOS

June 6th:
WN IND-ECP (new)
WN IND-MYR (new)

June 11th:
NK IND-PNS (new)

June 12th:
WN IND-MIA (new)

July 7th:
DL IND-SLC (tentative)

August 4th:
G4 IND-RAP (temporary)

September 5th:
SY IND-MCO (new)
 
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Midwestindy
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Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 12:18 pm

March numbers are quite impressive:

62.6% of March 2019 passenger traffic, or 119.8% of March 2020, and a big boost to international cargo thanks to FX going double or triple daily on CDG.

AS: 55.5% of 2019 enplanements
G4: 75.5% of 2019 enplanements
AA: 52.4% of 2019 enplanements
DL: 29.3% of 2019 enplanements (ouch)
F9: 83.4% of 2019 enplanements
WN: 64.3% of 2019 enplanements
NK: 411.9% of 2019 enplanements
UA: 59.6% of 2019 enplanements

DL carried a mere 12% of IND traffic in March, barely more than UA's 11%

https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 0503094117

YTD March
CLE-1,111,007
IND-1,101,222
RDU-1,097,464
MCI-1,094,802
SAT-996,164
CVG-946,086
CMH-819,323
SNA-808,088
PIT-807,805

GSOtoIND wrote:
Nice work. These data also show the imbalance of traffic between A and B has gotten even wider this year. At 58% B and 42% A, there's nearly 50 percent more foot traffic on B.
Midwestindy wrote:
June Schedule is almost set, pulled together some summary statistics:

Image
Image

Most destinations are returning, or getting replaced with new routes, in terms of upcoming route resumptions and new adds:

May 5th:
DL IND-JFK

May 6th:
AA IND-LAX
DL IND-LAX

May 27th:
UA IND-CHS (new)

May 28th:
G4 IND-BOS (new)
G4 IND-LAX (new)
SY IND-MSP (new)
UA IND-HHH (new)
UA IND-PWM (new)

June 3rd:
AA IND-BOS (new)

June 5th:
AA IND-MCO (new)
DL IND-BOS

June 6th:
WN IND-ECP (new)
WN IND-MYR (new)

June 11th:
NK IND-PNS (new)

June 12th:
WN IND-MIA (new)

July 7th:
DL IND-SLC (tentative)

August 4th:
G4 IND-RAP (temporary)

September 5th:
SY IND-MCO (new)


Maybe NK can spring some life into it, because otherwise....
Image
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
Indy
Posts: 4958
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 12:55 pm

Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.
IND to RDU to OKC in 18 months. This is what my life has become.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4326
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 1:27 pm

Indy wrote:
Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.


Seems like they have done this a lot of places. Everyone else pivoted to other routes to make up some and delta didn’t. Also having middles empty this long probably didn’t help numbers.
 
indygs
Posts: 160
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:22 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 4:04 pm

Indy wrote:
Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.


Interesting to see DL's pricing strategy out of IND right now, too. On routes where they go head-to-head with AA, they offer basic economy, but AA in many cases is offering main cabin as their lowest fare. So at first glance you think an itinerary on one matches the price with another, but in reality you "get" more from the AA offering.

I understand having cut the likes of CDG, for instance, but when you once could go to SEA, SLC and LAX, the furthest point West DL can take you non-stop now is MSP. Looks like that will change soon but it definitely feels like they're playing catch-up.
 
kavok
Posts: 947
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 4:18 pm

Indy wrote:
Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.


To me, this is what I find most odd. I can see the arguments of playing conservative, sticking with the bread and butter routes, and not trying these unique new flights to Hilton Head and whatnot. But simple things like maintaining IND-MCO, and connecting places like CMH, IND, MKE to your core hubs seems like no-brainers at this point.

I also think we are getting to the point where not having those routes will start to hurt. Most people weren’t flying for all of 2020, so the long-term impacts of AA gaining marketshare for the last 6 months probably wasn’t going to mean enough to get many people to switch their airline of choice. But now I think we are in a situation where people are starting to return to the skies, and the reduction in DL offerings is at a point that it will start driving frequent flyers to AA/UA/WN in places like IND. Funneling most to make a connection thru ATL is no longer going to cut it for the remaining business flyers in the latter half of 2021.
 
stlgph
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Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 4:36 pm

.....what business travel?
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
jplatts
Posts: 4540
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 4:47 pm

kavok wrote:
I also think we are getting to the point where not having those routes will start to hurt. Most people weren’t flying for all of 2020, so the long-term impacts of AA gaining marketshare for the last 6 months probably wasn’t going to mean enough to get many people to switch their airline of choice. But now I think we are in a situation where people are starting to return to the skies, and the reduction in DL offerings is at a point that it will start driving frequent flyers to AA/UA/WN in places like IND. Funneling most to make a connection thru ATL is no longer going to cut it for the remaining business flyers in the latter half of 2021.


DL can continue to suspend IND-BOS/SEA nonstop service if there isn't enough demand for IND-BOS/SEA nonstop service on DL with the 1-stop connecting options that are still there to BOS (through DTW/LGA) and SEA (through MSP) on DL.

On the other hand, DL needs to resume IND-SLC nonstop service to remain competitive in the IND market with the connections that DL offers to Idaho, Nevada, and Northern California through the SLC hub in addition to IND-SLC O&D. DL is currently scheduled to resume IND-SLC on July 7th.

DL still has nonstop service to DTW, LAX, MSP, LGA, and JFK in addition to ATL, and DL also still offers connections through these 5 hubs from IND.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 06, 2021 10:45 pm

This is interesting, the airport put out a press release for new/resumed AA flights, but didn't mention WN. Also weird they put this out now, the MCO flights were announced weeks ago. They even added ECP to the nonstop flights list, but didn't put out anything....

“We are thrilled to offer more nonstop service from Indianapolis just in time for summer,” said Brian Znotins, American Airlines vice president of network planning. “Whether they’re flying to Orlando, Boston, Los Angeles, or any of the existing routes we offer from IND, we look forward to welcoming more Indy travelers to fly with us and further connecting them to our global network.”
https://www.ind.com/about/media/media-r ... n-airlines

I'll also add that pricing for those AA IND-MCO flights are ridiculous, they have capped them at a minimum of $314+ since they were loaded
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri May 07, 2021 12:12 pm

indygs wrote:
Indy wrote:
Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.


Interesting to see DL's pricing strategy out of IND right now, too. On routes where they go head-to-head with AA, they offer basic economy, but AA in many cases is offering main cabin as their lowest fare. So at first glance you think an itinerary on one matches the price with another, but in reality you "get" more from the AA offering.

I understand having cut the likes of CDG, for instance, but when you once could go to SEA, SLC and LAX, the furthest point West DL can take you non-stop now is MSP. Looks like that will change soon but it definitely feels like they're playing catch-up.


Looks like IND-SLC has been zero'd out until December 2021.....yikes

kavok wrote:
Indy wrote:
Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.


To me, this is what I find most odd. I can see the arguments of playing conservative, sticking with the bread and butter routes, and not trying these unique new flights to Hilton Head and whatnot. But simple things like maintaining IND-MCO, and connecting places like CMH, IND, MKE to your core hubs seems like no-brainers at this point.

I also think we are getting to the point where not having those routes will start to hurt. Most people weren’t flying for all of 2020, so the long-term impacts of AA gaining marketshare for the last 6 months probably wasn’t going to mean enough to get many people to switch their airline of choice. But now I think we are in a situation where people are starting to return to the skies, and the reduction in DL offerings is at a point that it will start driving frequent flyers to AA/UA/WN in places like IND. Funneling most to make a connection thru ATL is no longer going to cut it for the remaining business flyers in the latter half of 2021.


Actually there have likely already been long-term impacts, AA cited recently that I think 10% of their current revenue is coming from out-stations like RDU, BNA, and IND, from passengers who were not previously AAdvantage members and have now flown AA more than once.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
pmanni1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri May 07, 2021 12:26 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
This is interesting, the airport put out a press release for new/resumed AA flights, but didn't mention WN. Also weird they put this out now, the MCO flights were announced weeks ago. They even added ECP to the nonstop flights list, but didn't put out anything....

“We are thrilled to offer more nonstop service from Indianapolis just in time for summer,” said Brian Znotins, American Airlines vice president of network planning. “Whether they’re flying to Orlando, Boston, Los Angeles, or any of the existing routes we offer from IND, we look forward to welcoming more Indy travelers to fly with us and further connecting them to our global network.”
https://www.ind.com/about/media/media-r ... n-airlines

I'll also add that pricing for those AA IND-MCO flights are ridiculous, they have capped them at a minimum of $314+ since they were loaded

Same thing happening at STL. Big press release when AA added BOS. Even made the local news stations. WN added MIA,SAV,SNA & VPS and not a mention from any media.
 
CMHtraveler
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri May 07, 2021 12:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:
Indy wrote:
Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.


Interesting to see DL's pricing strategy out of IND right now, too. On routes where they go head-to-head with AA, they offer basic economy, but AA in many cases is offering main cabin as their lowest fare. So at first glance you think an itinerary on one matches the price with another, but in reality you "get" more from the AA offering.

I understand having cut the likes of CDG, for instance, but when you once could go to SEA, SLC and LAX, the furthest point West DL can take you non-stop now is MSP. Looks like that will change soon but it definitely feels like they're playing catch-up.


Looks like IND-SLC has been zero'd out until December 2021.....yikes

kavok wrote:
Indy wrote:
Delta's behavior is very bizarre. They took a very successful station and basically gutted it.


To me, this is what I find most odd. I can see the arguments of playing conservative, sticking with the bread and butter routes, and not trying these unique new flights to Hilton Head and whatnot. But simple things like maintaining IND-MCO, and connecting places like CMH, IND, MKE to your core hubs seems like no-brainers at this point.

I also think we are getting to the point where not having those routes will start to hurt. Most people weren’t flying for all of 2020, so the long-term impacts of AA gaining marketshare for the last 6 months probably wasn’t going to mean enough to get many people to switch their airline of choice. But now I think we are in a situation where people are starting to return to the skies, and the reduction in DL offerings is at a point that it will start driving frequent flyers to AA/UA/WN in places like IND. Funneling most to make a connection thru ATL is no longer going to cut it for the remaining business flyers in the latter half of 2021.


Actually there have likely already been long-term impacts, AA cited recently that I think 10% of their current revenue is coming from out-stations like RDU, BNA, and IND, from passengers who were not previously AAdvantage members and have now flown AA more than once.


It’s the same story at CMH. Pre-pandemic DL rivaled AA and WN in pax share and departures. It has now been gutted to a mere 13% market share in April, about even with rapidly growing NK. NK will almost certainly surpass DL in June when their new PNS and LAX flights begin. While A and B concourses have sprung back to life, DL’s gates in C remain a ghost town (other than the ATL shuttles). Even UA, a minor player and strictly hub operator here, is trying new p2p routes. Meanwhile, you we can’t get west of MSP on DL either.

So, it’s not just IND. I think this is why there was an entire thread titled “what is Delta doing?”
 
indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri May 07, 2021 4:33 pm

CMHtraveler wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
indygs wrote:

Interesting to see DL's pricing strategy out of IND right now, too. On routes where they go head-to-head with AA, they offer basic economy, but AA in many cases is offering main cabin as their lowest fare. So at first glance you think an itinerary on one matches the price with another, but in reality you "get" more from the AA offering.

I understand having cut the likes of CDG, for instance, but when you once could go to SEA, SLC and LAX, the furthest point West DL can take you non-stop now is MSP. Looks like that will change soon but it definitely feels like they're playing catch-up.


Looks like IND-SLC has been zero'd out until December 2021.....yikes

kavok wrote:

To me, this is what I find most odd. I can see the arguments of playing conservative, sticking with the bread and butter routes, and not trying these unique new flights to Hilton Head and whatnot. But simple things like maintaining IND-MCO, and connecting places like CMH, IND, MKE to your core hubs seems like no-brainers at this point.

I also think we are getting to the point where not having those routes will start to hurt. Most people weren’t flying for all of 2020, so the long-term impacts of AA gaining marketshare for the last 6 months probably wasn’t going to mean enough to get many people to switch their airline of choice. But now I think we are in a situation where people are starting to return to the skies, and the reduction in DL offerings is at a point that it will start driving frequent flyers to AA/UA/WN in places like IND. Funneling most to make a connection thru ATL is no longer going to cut it for the remaining business flyers in the latter half of 2021.


Actually there have likely already been long-term impacts, AA cited recently that I think 10% of their current revenue is coming from out-stations like RDU, BNA, and IND, from passengers who were not previously AAdvantage members and have now flown AA more than once.


It’s the same story at CMH. Pre-pandemic DL rivaled AA and WN in pax share and departures. It has now been gutted to a mere 13% market share in April, about even with rapidly growing NK. NK will almost certainly surpass DL in June when their new PNS and LAX flights begin. While A and B concourses have sprung back to life, DL’s gates in C remain a ghost town (other than the ATL shuttles). Even UA, a minor player and strictly hub operator here, is trying new p2p routes. Meanwhile, you we can’t get west of MSP on DL either.

So, it’s not just IND. I think this is why there was an entire thread titled “what is Delta doing?”


While I've not seen it myself, apparently the IND SkyClub is pretty quiet these days. I wonder if there are issues with frames, crew or something else that's up at Delta? You can't give the "loads aren't back" excuse while every other airline has added capacity and has been sending out planes with decent loads and middle seats occupied.

Its a tangent, but DL's DBV announcement is an interesting bookend to the pandemic. At the start, DL was bold by extending status for everyone from the get-go. Then everyone followed. Now in many ways they appear to be playing catch up. UA announces DBV and then DL does. AA put ATH on the map again and then DL decided to. Whereas I think going into 2020 they were the torchbearer and leader of the Big 3 in many ways, in mid-2021 they seem to have been dealt a blow in that regard.
 
OlympicATH
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat May 08, 2021 1:04 pm

indygs wrote:
AA put ATH on the map again and then DL decided to.


I don't think that's what happened. DL has been flying JFK-ATH since the early 90s, since it took over Pan Am's transatlantic network I believe. It was year-round most of the time and they even flew ATL-ATH for a few years until 2011. US Airways and Continental started flying to Athens much later, in 2007 I believe, from Philadelphia and Newark respectively. US/AA has always flown to ATH only seasonally. CO was year-round for a very short while only.

DL was planning two daily JFK-ATH frequencies this summer, in line with what they've been doing in recent years, and even made one of the two flights year-round again next winter after only flying to ATH seasonally for the last few years. All this has been loaded for a while, before the latest announcements from AA and UA.

AA actually announced JFK-ATH in an attempt to capture some market share from DL, that has been flying two daily A330s on the route for the last few summers.

The only thing DL did recently was resume ATL-ATH. This means they will have 3 daily flights to ATH, in line with AA (if PHL-ATH resumes in August) and one more than UA. And they will be the only US3 flying to ATH year-round next winter.
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun May 09, 2021 4:29 am

I did some research on Monday's loads on AA and DL.
American is flying 30 flights (10 mainline) to 9 destinations with 2833 available seats. 2165 are shown as not available on the seat map, giving an estimated load factor of 76.4%.
Delta is flying 21 flights (8 mainline) to 6 destinations with 2464 available seats, but only 1247 are shown as unavailable, giving an estimated load factor of 50.6%.
Fun facts:
0. American's lowest load factor for a single flight is the LGA flight, which has 38 out of 65 seats filled for an LF of 58.5% which is still higher than Delta's daily average, and higher than all of Delta's routes save for MSP, which has a 65.7% LF for the day.
1. The fairest like for like comparison (the same route with the same frequency on virtually the same schedule) is LAX, where both AA and DL have a redeye inbound and a morning outbound (DL departs at 7:10 while AA departs at 7:20). Delta is showing 84 of 160 seats filled on their 738, while American is showing 101 of 128 filled on their A319.
2. AA boosting the morning MIA flight to mainline hasn't resulted in low loads. That flight is showing 135 seats filled out of 172 on the 737. Impressive.
Long story short: unless Delta is getting dramatically higher fares, we're seeing a realignment at IND.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun May 09, 2021 4:54 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
I did some research on Monday's loads on AA and DL.
American is flying 30 flights (10 mainline) to 9 destinations with 2833 available seats. 2165 are shown as not available on the seat map, giving an estimated load factor of 76.4%.
Delta is flying 21 flights (8 mainline) to 6 destinations with 2464 available seats, but only 1247 are shown as unavailable, giving an estimated load factor of 50.6%.
Fun facts:
0. American's lowest load factor for a single flight is the LGA flight, which has 38 out of 65 seats filled for an LF of 58.5% which is still higher than Delta's daily average, and higher than all of Delta's routes save for MSP, which has a 65.7% LF for the day.
1. The fairest like for like comparison (the same route with the same frequency on virtually the same schedule) is LAX, where both AA and DL have a redeye inbound and a morning outbound (DL departs at 7:10 while AA departs at 7:20). Delta is showing 84 of 160 seats filled on their 738, while American is showing 101 of 128 filled on their A319.
2. AA boosting the morning MIA flight to mainline hasn't resulted in low loads. That flight is showing 135 seats filled out of 172 on the 737. Impressive.
Long story short: unless Delta is getting dramatically higher fares, we're seeing a realignment at IND.


Welp AA just added a 2nd LAX flight year-round again starting August 17th......timed to leave at nearly the exact same time as DL.....

So AA is back up to 46 departures in their late August placeholder schedule vs. DL's 32 departures (obviously both numbers will change).

I flew through IND this week, on the 737 MIA and the AA LAX both of which were sold out or nearly sold out, I think LAX was around 95%+. So AA must be doing something right if they are already going 2x daily on LAX, and 2x mainline on MIA in November (again obviously still early to be looking that far ahead).

Looking at IND-BOS in June it doesn't seem like DL is getting any fare premium. DL is undercutting AA on fares most days, offering $99 each way nearly every day and also lower First class fares every day. This shouldn't be a route AA is yielding better than DL.

We'll see what happens, but AA has a big opportunity in places like BOS, RDU, CMH, IND, AUS, e.t.c. and they are certainly taking advantage of it.....
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun May 09, 2021 5:43 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
I did some research on Monday's loads on AA and DL.
American is flying 30 flights (10 mainline) to 9 destinations with 2833 available seats. 2165 are shown as not available on the seat map, giving an estimated load factor of 76.4%.
Delta is flying 21 flights (8 mainline) to 6 destinations with 2464 available seats, but only 1247 are shown as unavailable, giving an estimated load factor of 50.6%.
Fun facts:
0. American's lowest load factor for a single flight is the LGA flight, which has 38 out of 65 seats filled for an LF of 58.5% which is still higher than Delta's daily average, and higher than all of Delta's routes save for MSP, which has a 65.7% LF for the day.
1. The fairest like for like comparison (the same route with the same frequency on virtually the same schedule) is LAX, where both AA and DL have a redeye inbound and a morning outbound (DL departs at 7:10 while AA departs at 7:20). Delta is showing 84 of 160 seats filled on their 738, while American is showing 101 of 128 filled on their A319.
2. AA boosting the morning MIA flight to mainline hasn't resulted in low loads. That flight is showing 135 seats filled out of 172 on the 737. Impressive.
Long story short: unless Delta is getting dramatically higher fares, we're seeing a realignment at IND.

Not so much a realignment, as different passengers, I think.
DL went after Indy Corporate HARD pre-Covid, especially Lilly, Salesforce, etc.
Now those passengers are not travelling, and the loads reflect it. All of the new Florida, the P2P southeast flights, and the continuing Northeast lockdowns are likely seriously cutting into DL's loads.
Let's face it. Who wants to be stuck in a shoulder-to-shoulder Atlanta bank during Covid, when non-stops to or near your connecting liesure destination are available?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun May 09, 2021 8:41 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
GSOtoIND wrote:
I did some research on Monday's loads on AA and DL.
American is flying 30 flights (10 mainline) to 9 destinations with 2833 available seats. 2165 are shown as not available on the seat map, giving an estimated load factor of 76.4%.
Delta is flying 21 flights (8 mainline) to 6 destinations with 2464 available seats, but only 1247 are shown as unavailable, giving an estimated load factor of 50.6%.
Fun facts:
0. American's lowest load factor for a single flight is the LGA flight, which has 38 out of 65 seats filled for an LF of 58.5% which is still higher than Delta's daily average, and higher than all of Delta's routes save for MSP, which has a 65.7% LF for the day.
1. The fairest like for like comparison (the same route with the same frequency on virtually the same schedule) is LAX, where both AA and DL have a redeye inbound and a morning outbound (DL departs at 7:10 while AA departs at 7:20). Delta is showing 84 of 160 seats filled on their 738, while American is showing 101 of 128 filled on their A319.
2. AA boosting the morning MIA flight to mainline hasn't resulted in low loads. That flight is showing 135 seats filled out of 172 on the 737. Impressive.
Long story short: unless Delta is getting dramatically higher fares, we're seeing a realignment at IND.

Not so much a realignment, as different passengers, I think.
DL went after Indy Corporate HARD pre-Covid, especially Lilly, Salesforce, etc.
Now those passengers are not travelling, and the loads reflect it. All of the new Florida, the P2P southeast flights, and the continuing Northeast lockdowns are likely seriously cutting into DL's loads.
Let's face it. Who wants to be stuck in a shoulder-to-shoulder Atlanta bank during Covid, when non-stops to or near your connecting liesure destination are available?


I would think this would help DL maintain loyalty, given if these travelers were flying DL previously they would have status, miles, or some attachment to the airline that would keep them flying with DL for leisure travel even if the flight offering might not be as appealing.

I guess once you get to a certain level of flight reductions, that built in loyalty wears away.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 10, 2021 3:03 pm

Here's the Media attention we been waiting for on Southwest

Southwest adding nonstop Florida flights to Miami, Panama City Beach https://www.ibj.com/articles/southwest- ... city-beach

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
g3vsj2017
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 10, 2021 5:24 pm

IMO Delta will re-establish IND market share eventually. Their commitment to the community is evident by the re-opening of the Sky Club. Delta from day one has said that it will emerge from covid a smaller carrier. Ultimately it's committed to long term sustainability and a return to profitability. It's not willing to jump into the LCC florida frenzy. Operationally, Delta still stands out from the crowd for me as a traveler from Indianapolis. Their numbers in April are #1 in arrivals/departures and that's with the staffing glitch at the beginning of the month and the crazy weather in ATL at the end. Overall, YTD they are #1 in the metrics that I care about. When I want to get where I'm going, delta remains my carrier of choice -- even if I'm paying slightly more and or need to make a connection. Everyone has to do what works for them though and I totally understand that the lack of flight options can be a detriment.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 10, 2021 10:28 pm

Flew through IND again today, it was quite refreshing to see so many business passengers moving through the airport (at least relative to the last year)!

Eli Lilly is also fully reopening their offices in July, but starting at 25% next month. So expect business travel to ramp up in late summer, early fall from IND. Lilly alone spent over $100 million on air travel in 2018, so this is pretty big for IND.

They also said they expect all employees will be working & collaborating exactly like they did pre-covid.

https://www.ibj.com/articles/eli-lilly- ... ccinations
ibthebigd wrote:
Here's the Media attention we been waiting for on Southwest

Southwest adding nonstop Florida flights to Miami, Panama City Beach https://www.ibj.com/articles/southwest- ... city-beach

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Well there it is!

Still don't get the reasoning in waiting until less than a month prior to departure to announce, but what do I know?
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue May 11, 2021 3:06 am

g3vsj2017 wrote:
IMO Delta will re-establish IND market share eventually. Their commitment to the community is evident by the re-opening of the Sky Club. Delta from day one has said that it will emerge from covid a smaller carrier. Ultimately it's committed to long term sustainability and a return to profitability. It's not willing to jump into the LCC florida frenzy. Operationally, Delta still stands out from the crowd for me as a traveler from Indianapolis. Their numbers in April are #1 in arrivals/departures and that's with the staffing glitch at the beginning of the month and the crazy weather in ATL at the end. Overall, YTD they are #1 in the metrics that I care about. When I want to get where I'm going, delta remains my carrier of choice -- even if I'm paying slightly more and or need to make a connection. Everyone has to do what works for them though and I totally understand that the lack of flight options can be a detriment.


I hope you're right. But I'm not so sure I'd describe AA + UA's route additions as an "LCC Florida Frenzy." There's been some of that, yes, but I also think there's been a disciplined approach to adding markets (PWM, CHS, CUN, etc.) that will in fact make money for the summer. In addition, AA's build-up of routes out of IND has appeal to business travelers who wish to keep their travels to one carrier, especially given they're soon to serve BOS, NYC, DCA. I could foresee the addition of a OW TATL flight down the line (such as BA to LHR) really elevating AA with corporate clients, especially with LHR being the most sought-after international destination out of IND.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 12:53 am

IND projected to be the 23rd fastest growing airport in the country over the next 4 years, projected to be fully recovered by next year/2023, and close to 12M passengers by 2025:

Image
https://atwairport.com/wp-content/uploa ... _Final.pdf
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
fedex1
Posts: 375
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 1:09 am

May I once again ask, what put IND on the map? BNA? CLE? CMH? PIT? STL? MCI? Aren’t those our “peer” cities? I do believe STL handles a lot more PAX than IND does, but with SWA there, I figured that would explode faster? Think is obviously wrong! Help me understand the matrix’s!
 
Jshank83
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Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 1:15 am

fedex1 wrote:
May I once again ask, what put IND on the map? BNA? CLE? CMH? PIT? STL? MCI? Aren’t those our “peer” cities? I do believe STL handles a lot more PAX than IND does, but with SWA there, I figured that would explode faster? Think is obviously wrong! Help me understand the matrix’s!


This is percentages. So for the bigger airports (not that all you listed are bigger than IND) they could grow more passengers and not show up on this chart since they already are bigger and the percentage would be smaller. But it’s the reason most of the airports listed are smaller.
 
fedex1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 1:25 am

Thank you sir.
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