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flyPIT
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 1:39 am

What does Michael Boyd think will happen in Indianapolis that will cause total passengers to increase by 1.7 million from 2022 to 2023? An increase of 1.4 million in Anchorage from 2023 to 2024?!?! They only served 5.6 million total in 2019. A 5 million increase at Austin from 2023 to 2024? AUS is on fire but that increase seems beyond overly optimistic.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 3:15 am

flyPIT wrote:
What does Michael Boyd think will happen in Indianapolis that will cause total passengers to increase by 1.7 million from 2022 to 2023? An increase of 1.4 million in Anchorage from 2023 to 2024?!?! They only served 5.6 million total in 2019. A 5 million increase at Austin from 2023 to 2024? AUS is on fire but that increase seems beyond overly optimistic.


IIRC, It's actually partially based on the FAA's forecasts, which show similar trends:

Basing it off the 2025 exit rate, the AUS passenger total is almost exactly what the Austin Airport is projecting. Plus, the FAA is projecting 24.7% growth from AUS from 2022-2023 (20.1% from '23-'24), which is slightly more than this forecast is showing.

AUS is going to be very big in the future once they add all those gates in their expansion, I mean the Austin metro grew by 30% in one decade......
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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 12:55 pm

IND growth would put it at nearly 12 million passengers served in 2025. Combine that with FX growth, IND will be a very busy airport. Who here remembers IND in the early 80's?
IND to RDU to OKC in 18 months. This is what my life has become.
 
pmanni1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 1:15 pm

fedex1 wrote:
May I once again ask, what put IND on the map? BNA? CLE? CMH? PIT? STL? MCI? Aren’t those our “peer” cities? I do believe STL handles a lot more PAX than IND does, but with SWA there, I figured that would explode faster? Think is obviously wrong! Help me understand the matrix’s!

Most of these airports are so small that getting an extra daily flight or two from any airline would make them show up on this list. A place like LAX could get 15 additional flights each day from an airlines and still wouldn't show up on this.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 1:27 pm

Indy wrote:
IND growth would put it at nearly 12 million passengers served in 2025. Combine that with FX growth, IND will be a very busy airport. Who here remembers IND in the early 80's?


Should be interesting to see the airfield next year

FX traffic is supposed to skyrocket next year once the apron expansion is complete in this fall, this is from the 2019 forecast, so they'll be an even larger share of landed weights by 2022.

Image
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 1208213211
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flyPIT
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 3:08 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
flyPIT wrote:
What does Michael Boyd think will happen in Indianapolis that will cause total passengers to increase by 1.7 million from 2022 to 2023? An increase of 1.4 million in Anchorage from 2023 to 2024?!?! They only served 5.6 million total in 2019. A 5 million increase at Austin from 2023 to 2024? AUS is on fire but that increase seems beyond overly optimistic.


IIRC, It's actually partially based on the FAA's forecasts, which show similar trends:

Basing it off the 2025 exit rate, the AUS passenger total is almost exactly what the Austin Airport is projecting. Plus, the FAA is projecting 24.7% growth from AUS from 2022-2023 (20.1% from '23-'24), which is slightly more than this forecast is showing.

AUS is going to be very big in the future once they add all those gates in their expansion, I mean the Austin metro grew by 30% in one decade......


I put even less stock in FAA forecasts than I do Boyd. I remember in 1988 the FAA predicted that by 2000 PIT would be the 8th busiest airport in the US serving 38 million people. The reality is the FAA doesn't know more about market trends, industry consolidation, future focus cities, alliances, airlines, routes etc etc than you or I.

Interesting chart tho.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 3:46 pm

flyPIT wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
flyPIT wrote:
What does Michael Boyd think will happen in Indianapolis that will cause total passengers to increase by 1.7 million from 2022 to 2023? An increase of 1.4 million in Anchorage from 2023 to 2024?!?! They only served 5.6 million total in 2019. A 5 million increase at Austin from 2023 to 2024? AUS is on fire but that increase seems beyond overly optimistic.


IIRC, It's actually partially based on the FAA's forecasts, which show similar trends:

Basing it off the 2025 exit rate, the AUS passenger total is almost exactly what the Austin Airport is projecting. Plus, the FAA is projecting 24.7% growth from AUS from 2022-2023 (20.1% from '23-'24), which is slightly more than this forecast is showing.

AUS is going to be very big in the future once they add all those gates in their expansion, I mean the Austin metro grew by 30% in one decade......


I put even less stock in FAA forecasts than I do Boyd. I remember in 1988 the FAA predicted that by 2000 PIT would be the 8th busiest airport in the US serving 38 million people. The reality is the FAA doesn't know more about market trends, industry consolidation, future focus cities, alliances, airlines, routes etc etc than you or I.

Interesting chart tho.


Seems like your issue is more with forecasts in general than the forecasts in question, that's why I underlined the word projected in the original post, because projections are never meant to be set in stone.
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flyPIT
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 4:00 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

Seems like your issue is more with forecasts in general than the forecasts in question, that's why I underlined the word projected in the original post, because projections are never meant to be set in stone.


Actually in this case it was more about the forecasts in question. I asked what does Boyd (or the FAA) see happening in IND to project such a huge jump from 2022 to 2023? Same for ANC and AUS in 2023-2024. That ANC forecast especially seems out of left field considering their size.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 12, 2021 4:52 pm

flyPIT wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Seems like your issue is more with forecasts in general than the forecasts in question, that's why I underlined the word projected in the original post, because projections are never meant to be set in stone.


Actually in this case it was more about the forecasts in question. I asked what does Boyd (or the FAA) see happening in IND to project such a huge jump from 2022 to 2023? Same for ANC and AUS in 2023-2024. That ANC forecast especially seems out of left field considering their size.


The increases are not that significant on a % basis, especially considering the industry is still in recovery mode. A 19% increase from 2022-2023 in IND really isn't that extraordinary given the circumstances, heck CVG had multiple years of 15% yearly growth just a couple of years ago and multiple other airports posted similar yoy growth last decade, and that was without a global pandemic preceding it.

Regardless using a CAGR from 2022-2025, the growth rates are really not that crazy.
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 7:57 am

IND-Hawaii is now bookable on Southwest Thru PHX/LAS.

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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 1:29 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
IND-Hawaii is now bookable on Southwest Thru PHX/LAS.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Looks like no IND-KOA/LIH/ITO

I personally wouldn't fly from IND-HNL or OGG on WN, looks like there is only 1 option per day (most days), flights leave at 5/6am, WN doesn't have power outlets, only a snack bag is available.

To each their own, but it seems you'd get a better experience on the US3 or AS on a journey as long as IND-Hawaii, at a similar or better price point.
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 1:04 pm

WN added back a IND-Phoenix flight for June, so back up to 2x daily, and 3x Saturday. Slightly adjusting the below data.

Midwestindy wrote:
June Schedule is almost set, pulled together some summary statistics:

Image
Image


Still some changes likely for July.

For now UA will be up to 20 flights/day from IND, AA 35 flights/day, WN 24 flights/day(37 on Saturdays), & DL will be up to 26 flights/day. All are likely to be tweaked up or down, especially WN

Also, DL looks like they are really expecting IND-NYC/BOS traffic to ramp up, in their updated August schedule they'll be up to 4x to LGA and 3x to BOS.

----------
Posting February LFs below, as I noted earlier, I expect more capacity to RSW heading into the winter and next Spring. The flights were posting insanely good LFs:

February LF
AS IND-SEA-34.8%

G4 IND-PGD-73.9%
G4 IND-FLL-66.6%
G4 IND-SFB-64.3%
G4 IND-LAS-55.6%
G4 IND-JAX-51.3%
G4 IND-PBI-45.5%
G4 IND-TUS-40.0%

AA IND-MIA-88.4%
AA IND-CLT-88.0%
AA IND-DFW-62.4%
AA IND-PHX-56.4%
AA IND-DCA-52.5%
AA IND-PHL-51.8%

DL IND-MSP-59.5%
DL IND-ATL-57.7%
DL IND-DTW-30.9%
DL IND-LGA-26.4%

F9 IND-MCO-81.0%
F9 IND-DEN-75.4%
F9 IND-LAS-72.9%

WN IND-RSW-96.8%
WN IND-MCO-87.5%
WN IND-TPA-84.1%
WN IND-DEN-82.1%
WN IND-FLL-78.8%
WN IND-PHX-75.3%
WN IND-LAS-59.7%
WN IND-BWI-46.4%

NK IND-RSW-92.0%
NK IND-MCO-85.8%
NK IND-TPA-73.6%
NK IND-LAS-73.0%
NK IND-FLL-71.0%

UA IND-RSW-95.3%
UA IND-DEN-73.7%
UA IND-IAH-68.2%
UA IND-IAD-67.4%
UA IND-EWR-63.1%
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GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 3:00 pm

Midwestindy wrote:

Still some changes likely for July.

For now UA will be up to 20 flights/day from IND, AA 35 flights/day, WN 24 flights/day(37 on Saturdays), & DL will be up to 26 flights/day. All are likely to be tweaked up or down, especially WN


I looked last night and AA is planning 36 flights on Mondays. On Friday the evening DCA flight doesn't run. On Mondays the route is 4x daily.
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 3:08 pm

What's going on with IND-SFO?

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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 3:50 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Still some changes likely for July.

For now UA will be up to 20 flights/day from IND, AA 35 flights/day, WN 24 flights/day(37 on Saturdays), & DL will be up to 26 flights/day. All are likely to be tweaked up or down, especially WN


I looked last night and AA is planning 36 flights on Mondays. On Friday the evening DCA flight doesn't run. On Mondays the route is 4x daily.


Nice, looks like its even 4x daily Mon-Thu which is more than nearly every outstation from DCA, they originally loaded it 2x daily for July I believe, so it looks like they've been adding back.

I'd check again tomorrow, since AA uploads its schedule changes tonight. Looks like AA might get back above 40 flights/day pretty soon, probably even surpassing 2019 departures in the next year or so.

ibthebigd wrote:
What's going on with IND-SFO?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


UA had a corporate customer day a few weeks ago, & Roche asked about the return of IND-SFO, UA's head of network planning said they expect it to return by the fall.

So I'd look for a September or October return. They got pretty good loads (relatively speaking) on the route last year, but I guess business travel dried up again once Roche was done developing their PCR tests.
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pmanni1
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 17, 2021 2:02 pm

Per https://crankyflier.com/2021/05/17/fron ... -american/ it looks like DL IND-SLC is a permanent cut.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 17, 2021 2:23 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Per https://crankyflier.com/2021/05/17/fron ... -american/ it looks like DL IND-SLC is a permanent cut.


Discussed last week on here, it's not permanently cut.

The article you cited also says "which is out through Nov." Which is not permanent
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stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 17, 2021 4:08 pm

I'd presume, even if not November, it'd be back soon thereafter in time for Ski season.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 17, 2021 10:46 pm

More frequency on IND-LUX? Pretty sure this was already announced, but the expansion is complete I guess

DB Schenker Expands Indianapolis Hub to Include 55,000 Square Feet of New Cold Storage Space for Vaccine & Pharma/Health Care Companies

DB Schenker Americas has expanded its existing Indianapolis logistics facility to include a new 5,000sf cold room and 50,000sf of controlled room temperature space. The expanded facility will support the pharmaceutical industry’s growing need for temperature-controlled logistics space. By building the additions in Indianapolis, DB Schenker can leverage a less-congested U.S. airport to fly direct to-and-from Luxembourg via its own-controlled flights.

With both Indianapolis and Luxembourg serving as major centers of vaccine/pharmaceutical manufacturing activity, DB Schenker is facilitating the fast and safe delivery of vaccines, medicines, supplies, and COVID-19 test kits to the recipients who need them.


https://www.dbschenker.com/usa/about-us ... es--700626
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GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 6:52 am

Looks like AA updated June and July. Right off the bat I can see they cut CLT back to 7x, the same as May (albeit with 2 of those being mainline). The 5AM departure is gone. Seems odd, since the CR7 operating it tomorrow has 64 of 65 seats filled. Not too shabby for a Wednesday. That early departure has been a differentiator for AA as nobody else has been flying any departures before 6.
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 1:42 pm

Given all the activity at Charlotte these days, I'm surprised AA isn't 10x daily or whatever on this route. I've flown through there three times this spring - AA is clearly going *ALL* in on Charlotte. It's a madhouse.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 19, 2021 3:08 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
Looks like AA updated June and July. Right off the bat I can see they cut CLT back to 7x, the same as May (albeit with 2 of those being mainline). The 5AM departure is gone. Seems odd, since the CR7 operating it tomorrow has 64 of 65 seats filled. Not too shabby for a Wednesday. That early departure has been a differentiator for AA as nobody else has been flying any departures before 6.

Disregard. I went back and read my initial June post from a month ago and this is the same schedule. I'm still a bit confused why AA cut the earliest CLT flight and added another evening flight. I also suspect July needs an update. The flight times for Envoy's E75 flights to ORD, DCA, and MIA seem off. the only logical flow of aircraft is ORD-IND-ORD with a 39 minute turn, MIA-IND-DCA with a 33 minute turn, and DCA-IND-MIA with a 39 minute turn. All three seem optimistic given the number of times I see Envoy leaving a flight waiting on a ramp crew after arrival.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon May 24, 2021 1:08 am

No CR2s or E145s for UA in August it looks like, good for passenger experience. Also, looks like IND-CHS is going down to 3x weekly in July.

stlgph wrote:
Given all the activity at Charlotte these days, I'm surprised AA isn't 10x daily or whatever on this route. I've flown through there three times this spring - AA is clearly going *ALL* in on Charlotte. It's a madhouse.


I think it's a bank issue, even 7x daily is pretty frequent given the total number of banks at CLT
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue May 25, 2021 8:33 pm

Went through 2019 O&D numbers again, and I think IND is pretty well served at this point:

Using 2019 data:

- Of the top 10 airports, all but one destination (ATL) has at least 3 carriers competing
- Of the top 20 airports, all but 3 (SAN, SFO, PHL) have at least 2 carriers competing
- Currently 7 destinations with > 50 PDEW without service scheduled:
    - However of SAN (194 PDEW), MCI (123 PDEW), PDX (113 PDEW), SAT (93 PDEW), SMF (69 PDEW), BDL (62 PDEW), & ORF (58 PDEW), I think SAN is really the only glaring hole.
    - While SAN can stand on its own, I think it might make sense to see SLC & SFO come back fully before adding routes like SMF & PDX
- BNA was one that I thought might be a sizable hole, but it is getting more difficult to justify with so much IND WN service now overflying BNA. Still a strong possibility, but at this point I'd expect SAN to restart before a BNA add.
- EYW is the lone major destination in Florida without service from IND, and IND was a top 10 market to EYW in Q4 2020, problem is G4 only flies A319s to EYW, and IND is an A320 only base. If G4 adds an A319 to IND, or is somehow able to rotate one through IND for EYW then it is possible

Image
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ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue May 25, 2021 9:33 pm

Allegiant to ORF could happen eventually.

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GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 26, 2021 4:16 pm

I feel like MCI is still viable, either once daily on Southwest (with evening demand fulfilled by connections in STL) or on an RJ with one of the legacies. The PDEW is fairly similar to RDU.
 
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AirportRival
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 26, 2021 5:32 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Went through 2019 O&D numbers again, and I think IND is pretty well served at this point:

Using 2019 data:

- Of the top 10 airports, all but one destination (ATL) has at least 3 carriers competing
- Of the top 20 airports, all but 3 (SAN, SFO, PHL) have at least 2 carriers competing
- Currently 7 destinations with > 50 PDEW without service scheduled:
    - However of SAN (194 PDEW), MCI (123 PDEW), PDX (113 PDEW), SAT (93 PDEW), SMF (69 PDEW), BDL (62 PDEW), & ORF (58 PDEW), I think SAN is really the only glaring hole.
    - While SAN can stand on its own, I think it might make sense to see SLC & SFO come back fully before adding routes like SMF & PDX
- BNA was one that I thought might be a sizable hole, but it is getting more difficult to justify with so much IND WN service now overflying BNA. Still a strong possibility, but at this point I'd expect SAN to restart before a BNA add.
- EYW is the lone major destination in Florida without service from IND, and IND was a top 10 market to EYW in Q4 2020, problem is G4 only flies A319s to EYW, and IND is an A320 only base. If G4 adds an A319 to IND, or is somehow able to rotate one through IND for EYW then it is possible

Image


Can you tell me where you pull the PDEW data from? I haven't pulled it in so long that I forget where to get it from. Thanks
Check out CVG's daily flight schedule https://sites.google.com/view/through-the-terminal
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed May 26, 2021 9:38 pm

AirportRival wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Went through 2019 O&D numbers again, and I think IND is pretty well served at this point:

Using 2019 data:

- Of the top 10 airports, all but one destination (ATL) has at least 3 carriers competing
- Of the top 20 airports, all but 3 (SAN, SFO, PHL) have at least 2 carriers competing
- Currently 7 destinations with > 50 PDEW without service scheduled:
    - However of SAN (194 PDEW), MCI (123 PDEW), PDX (113 PDEW), SAT (93 PDEW), SMF (69 PDEW), BDL (62 PDEW), & ORF (58 PDEW), I think SAN is really the only glaring hole.
    - While SAN can stand on its own, I think it might make sense to see SLC & SFO come back fully before adding routes like SMF & PDX
- BNA was one that I thought might be a sizable hole, but it is getting more difficult to justify with so much IND WN service now overflying BNA. Still a strong possibility, but at this point I'd expect SAN to restart before a BNA add.
- EYW is the lone major destination in Florida without service from IND, and IND was a top 10 market to EYW in Q4 2020, problem is G4 only flies A319s to EYW, and IND is an A320 only base. If G4 adds an A319 to IND, or is somehow able to rotate one through IND for EYW then it is possible

Image


Can you tell me where you pull the PDEW data from? I haven't pulled it in so long that I forget where to get it from. Thanks


This is the main one:
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

I also pull this to look at where passengers are connecting, and at what fare.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... 0%20f748rB

ibthebigd wrote:
Allegiant to ORF could happen eventually.

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Yeah, I think ORF is the same as EYW, in that it's all A319. I think it would make a lot of sense given they fly ORF-LCK/CLE/CVG/PIT

Ideally G4 would add an A319 to its IND base, and that would allow them to enter more markets, especially ones that are smaller in nature like ORF.

GSOtoIND wrote:
I feel like MCI is still viable, either once daily on Southwest (with evening demand fulfilled by connections in STL) or on an RJ with one of the legacies. The PDEW is fairly similar to RDU.


You are right, PDEW is very similar to RDU, the MCI air service development guy also tweeted out recently they are talking to WN about restoring it (not that that means much).

I think MCI was one of the most business heavy routes from IND, and saw significant stimulation from low fares & frequency which propped up O&D numbers a bit. O&D numbers were pitiful in Q3 and Q4 2020, only 12 & 13 PDEW, or barely even 10% of 2019 numbers for each quarter, which was a worse drop-off than every other sizable US market from IND. This indicates to me that the large majority of this traffic was business, which is odd because I can't think of many "major" business ties between MCI & IND.

I guess we'll see, IND-MCI carried a sizable amount of connecting passengers, so STL kind of complicates it a bit.
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GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 5:17 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AirportRival wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Went through 2019 O&D numbers again, and I think IND is pretty well served at this point:

Using 2019 data:

- Of the top 10 airports, all but one destination (ATL) has at least 3 carriers competing
- Of the top 20 airports, all but 3 (SAN, SFO, PHL) have at least 2 carriers competing
- Currently 7 destinations with > 50 PDEW without service scheduled:
    - However of SAN (194 PDEW), MCI (123 PDEW), PDX (113 PDEW), SAT (93 PDEW), SMF (69 PDEW), BDL (62 PDEW), & ORF (58 PDEW), I think SAN is really the only glaring hole.
    - While SAN can stand on its own, I think it might make sense to see SLC & SFO come back fully before adding routes like SMF & PDX
- BNA was one that I thought might be a sizable hole, but it is getting more difficult to justify with so much IND WN service now overflying BNA. Still a strong possibility, but at this point I'd expect SAN to restart before a BNA add.
- EYW is the lone major destination in Florida without service from IND, and IND was a top 10 market to EYW in Q4 2020, problem is G4 only flies A319s to EYW, and IND is an A320 only base. If G4 adds an A319 to IND, or is somehow able to rotate one through IND for EYW then it is possible

Image


Can you tell me where you pull the PDEW data from? I haven't pulled it in so long that I forget where to get it from. Thanks


This is the main one:
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

I also pull this to look at where passengers are connecting, and at what fare.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... 0%20f748rB

ibthebigd wrote:
Allegiant to ORF could happen eventually.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Yeah, I think ORF is the same as EYW, in that it's all A319. I think it would make a lot of sense given they fly ORF-LCK/CLE/CVG/PIT

Ideally G4 would add an A319 to its IND base, and that would allow them to enter more markets, especially ones that are smaller in nature like ORF.

GSOtoIND wrote:
I feel like MCI is still viable, either once daily on Southwest (with evening demand fulfilled by connections in STL) or on an RJ with one of the legacies. The PDEW is fairly similar to RDU.


You are right, PDEW is very similar to RDU, the MCI air service development guy also tweeted out recently they are talking to WN about restoring it (not that that means much).

I think MCI was one of the most business heavy routes from IND, and saw significant stimulation from low fares & frequency which propped up O&D numbers a bit. O&D numbers were pitiful in Q3 and Q4 2020, only 12 & 13 PDEW, or barely even 10% of 2019 numbers for each quarter, which was a worse drop-off than every other sizable US market from IND. This indicates to me that the large majority of this traffic was business, which is odd because I can't think of many "major" business ties between MCI & IND.

I guess we'll see, IND-MCI carried a sizable amount of connecting passengers, so STL kind of complicates it a bit.

I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.
 
pmanni1
Posts: 363
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 10:57 am

GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AirportRival wrote:

Can you tell me where you pull the PDEW data from? I haven't pulled it in so long that I forget where to get it from. Thanks


This is the main one:
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

I also pull this to look at where passengers are connecting, and at what fare.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... 0%20f748rB

ibthebigd wrote:
Allegiant to ORF could happen eventually.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Yeah, I think ORF is the same as EYW, in that it's all A319. I think it would make a lot of sense given they fly ORF-LCK/CLE/CVG/PIT

Ideally G4 would add an A319 to its IND base, and that would allow them to enter more markets, especially ones that are smaller in nature like ORF.

GSOtoIND wrote:
I feel like MCI is still viable, either once daily on Southwest (with evening demand fulfilled by connections in STL) or on an RJ with one of the legacies. The PDEW is fairly similar to RDU.


You are right, PDEW is very similar to RDU, the MCI air service development guy also tweeted out recently they are talking to WN about restoring it (not that that means much).

I think MCI was one of the most business heavy routes from IND, and saw significant stimulation from low fares & frequency which propped up O&D numbers a bit. O&D numbers were pitiful in Q3 and Q4 2020, only 12 & 13 PDEW, or barely even 10% of 2019 numbers for each quarter, which was a worse drop-off than every other sizable US market from IND. This indicates to me that the large majority of this traffic was business, which is odd because I can't think of many "major" business ties between MCI & IND.

I guess we'll see, IND-MCI carried a sizable amount of connecting passengers, so STL kind of complicates it a bit.

I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.

With the exception of flights to Florida it seems that WN is getting away from spoke to spoke flights. MCI doesn't really offer any new connections to the west coast that IND can't get by flying through STL,DEN,DAL,PHX.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 6117
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 3:51 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AirportRival wrote:

Can you tell me where you pull the PDEW data from? I haven't pulled it in so long that I forget where to get it from. Thanks


This is the main one:
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

I also pull this to look at where passengers are connecting, and at what fare.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... 0%20f748rB

ibthebigd wrote:
Allegiant to ORF could happen eventually.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Yeah, I think ORF is the same as EYW, in that it's all A319. I think it would make a lot of sense given they fly ORF-LCK/CLE/CVG/PIT

Ideally G4 would add an A319 to its IND base, and that would allow them to enter more markets, especially ones that are smaller in nature like ORF.

GSOtoIND wrote:
I feel like MCI is still viable, either once daily on Southwest (with evening demand fulfilled by connections in STL) or on an RJ with one of the legacies. The PDEW is fairly similar to RDU.


You are right, PDEW is very similar to RDU, the MCI air service development guy also tweeted out recently they are talking to WN about restoring it (not that that means much).

I think MCI was one of the most business heavy routes from IND, and saw significant stimulation from low fares & frequency which propped up O&D numbers a bit. O&D numbers were pitiful in Q3 and Q4 2020, only 12 & 13 PDEW, or barely even 10% of 2019 numbers for each quarter, which was a worse drop-off than every other sizable US market from IND. This indicates to me that the large majority of this traffic was business, which is odd because I can't think of many "major" business ties between MCI & IND.

I guess we'll see, IND-MCI carried a sizable amount of connecting passengers, so STL kind of complicates it a bit.

I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.


I can't imagine that 9pm IND-STL departure time is that attractive to many IND flyers, right? Maybe for *some* business travelers, who want to be home in the evening, and get to DSM, TUL, ICT, e.t.c. at 11PM for a meeting the next day. Even if there were a decent amount of pax flying those routings at those times, I can't imagine WN would capture that much of that pie, given AA & UA offer more connection availability to those destinations.

With G4, they theoretically *could* operate a lot of through routes with an A319 through IND, that doesn't mean they will. Especially since it sometimes results in weird flight times like the aforementioned 9:50 PM IND-SAV flight.

pmanni1 wrote:
GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

This is the main one:
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

I also pull this to look at where passengers are connecting, and at what fare.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... 0%20f748rB



Yeah, I think ORF is the same as EYW, in that it's all A319. I think it would make a lot of sense given they fly ORF-LCK/CLE/CVG/PIT

Ideally G4 would add an A319 to its IND base, and that would allow them to enter more markets, especially ones that are smaller in nature like ORF.



You are right, PDEW is very similar to RDU, the MCI air service development guy also tweeted out recently they are talking to WN about restoring it (not that that means much).

I think MCI was one of the most business heavy routes from IND, and saw significant stimulation from low fares & frequency which propped up O&D numbers a bit. O&D numbers were pitiful in Q3 and Q4 2020, only 12 & 13 PDEW, or barely even 10% of 2019 numbers for each quarter, which was a worse drop-off than every other sizable US market from IND. This indicates to me that the large majority of this traffic was business, which is odd because I can't think of many "major" business ties between MCI & IND.

I guess we'll see, IND-MCI carried a sizable amount of connecting passengers, so STL kind of complicates it a bit.

I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.

With the exception of flights to Florida it seems that WN is getting away from spoke to spoke flights. MCI doesn't really offer any new connections to the west coast that IND can't get by flying through STL,DEN,DAL,PHX.


It's about optionality IMO, if they wanted to they could only fly IND-DEN/BWI and that would cover nearly every market in the US.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4313
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 3:57 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

This is the main one:
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

I also pull this to look at where passengers are connecting, and at what fare.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... 0%20f748rB



Yeah, I think ORF is the same as EYW, in that it's all A319. I think it would make a lot of sense given they fly ORF-LCK/CLE/CVG/PIT

Ideally G4 would add an A319 to its IND base, and that would allow them to enter more markets, especially ones that are smaller in nature like ORF.



You are right, PDEW is very similar to RDU, the MCI air service development guy also tweeted out recently they are talking to WN about restoring it (not that that means much).

I think MCI was one of the most business heavy routes from IND, and saw significant stimulation from low fares & frequency which propped up O&D numbers a bit. O&D numbers were pitiful in Q3 and Q4 2020, only 12 & 13 PDEW, or barely even 10% of 2019 numbers for each quarter, which was a worse drop-off than every other sizable US market from IND. This indicates to me that the large majority of this traffic was business, which is odd because I can't think of many "major" business ties between MCI & IND.

I guess we'll see, IND-MCI carried a sizable amount of connecting passengers, so STL kind of complicates it a bit.

I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.


I can't imagine that 9pm IND-STL departure time is that attractive to many IND flyers, right? Maybe for *some* business travelers, who want to be home in the evening, and get to DSM, TUL, ICT, e.t.c. at 11PM for a meeting the next day. Even if there were a decent amount of pax flying those routings at those times, I can't imagine WN would capture that much of that pie, given AA & UA offer more connection availability to those destinations.

With G4, they theoretically *could* operate a lot of through routes with an A319 through IND, that doesn't mean they will. Especially since it sometimes results in weird flight times like the aforementioned 9:50 PM IND-SAV flight.

pmanni1 wrote:
GSOtoIND wrote:
I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.

With the exception of flights to Florida it seems that WN is getting away from spoke to spoke flights. MCI doesn't really offer any new connections to the west coast that IND can't get by flying through STL,DEN,DAL,PHX.


It's about optionality IMO, if they wanted to they could only fly IND-DEN/BWI and that would cover nearly every market in the US.



They basically are treating STL-IND like a true spoke as they do ICT/DSM/LIT, etc. 2 flights, one really early, one really late. inbound in the first incoming bank, outbound in the last outgoing bank to pick up connections.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu May 27, 2021 4:39 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
GSOtoIND wrote:
I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.


I can't imagine that 9pm IND-STL departure time is that attractive to many IND flyers, right? Maybe for *some* business travelers, who want to be home in the evening, and get to DSM, TUL, ICT, e.t.c. at 11PM for a meeting the next day. Even if there were a decent amount of pax flying those routings at those times, I can't imagine WN would capture that much of that pie, given AA & UA offer more connection availability to those destinations.

With G4, they theoretically *could* operate a lot of through routes with an A319 through IND, that doesn't mean they will. Especially since it sometimes results in weird flight times like the aforementioned 9:50 PM IND-SAV flight.

pmanni1 wrote:
With the exception of flights to Florida it seems that WN is getting away from spoke to spoke flights. MCI doesn't really offer any new connections to the west coast that IND can't get by flying through STL,DEN,DAL,PHX.


It's about optionality IMO, if they wanted to they could only fly IND-DEN/BWI and that would cover nearly every market in the US.



They basically are treating STL-IND like a true spoke as they do ICT/DSM/LIT, etc. 2 flights, one really early, one really late. inbound in the first incoming bank, outbound in the last outgoing bank to pick up connections.


The STL-IND flight times are fine, the IND-STL times are terrible, specifically the 9 PM departure. The amount of people flying those routings aren't large to begin with, but it's especially small at that time.

They'll adjust the times when they update the schedule though.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 185
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri May 28, 2021 3:45 am

Midwestindy wrote:
I can't imagine that 9pm IND-STL departure time is that attractive to many IND flyers, right? Maybe for *some* business travelers, who want to be home in the evening, and get to DSM, TUL, ICT, e.t.c. at 11PM for a meeting the next day. Even if there were a decent amount of pax flying those routings at those times, I can't imagine WN would capture that much of that pie, given AA & UA offer more connection availability to those destinations.


Ironically, WN did the same thing with the evening MCI flight in 2019 from what I remember. It consistently left at around 9 or 9:30. Those times shouldn't be *that* terrible since you have the time change working in your favor, so you should be at your destination well before midnight. It's suboptimal for sure but I suppose fleet utilization is a priority.
 
GSOtoIND
Posts: 185
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri May 28, 2021 3:47 am

The airport has a big spread set up in Civic Plaza for SY tomorrow. Their gate will be A22.
 
airplaneboy
Posts: 792
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 11:59 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri May 28, 2021 7:21 am

pmanni1 wrote:
GSOtoIND wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

This is the main one:
https://www.transportation.gov/policy/a ... are-report

I also pull this to look at where passengers are connecting, and at what fare.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_Select ... 0%20f748rB



Yeah, I think ORF is the same as EYW, in that it's all A319. I think it would make a lot of sense given they fly ORF-LCK/CLE/CVG/PIT

Ideally G4 would add an A319 to its IND base, and that would allow them to enter more markets, especially ones that are smaller in nature like ORF.



You are right, PDEW is very similar to RDU, the MCI air service development guy also tweeted out recently they are talking to WN about restoring it (not that that means much).

I think MCI was one of the most business heavy routes from IND, and saw significant stimulation from low fares & frequency which propped up O&D numbers a bit. O&D numbers were pitiful in Q3 and Q4 2020, only 12 & 13 PDEW, or barely even 10% of 2019 numbers for each quarter, which was a worse drop-off than every other sizable US market from IND. This indicates to me that the large majority of this traffic was business, which is odd because I can't think of many "major" business ties between MCI & IND.

I guess we'll see, IND-MCI carried a sizable amount of connecting passengers, so STL kind of complicates it a bit.

I was looking up STL schedules last night (it's currently scheduled to resume after Labor Day, though that's obviously subject to change), and most of the connections via STL are Midwest/Great Plains cities like MCI itself and DSM/TUL/ICT/OKC that aren't served from MCI. I guess the flight times (9:45am and 9pm) don't like up with most the West Coast flights. I think MCI took some western connections (I remember a few years ago the flight monitors were acting up and showed the entire route for through flights and MCI continued to SMF that day). I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.

As for Allegiant and the A319, they flew one through IND today. N309NV flew SAV-IND-PGD-IND-SAV. If G4 thinks IND-EYW is viable, they'll figure out how to get a 319 in here to operate it.

With the exception of flights to Florida it seems that WN is getting away from spoke to spoke flights. MCI doesn't really offer any new connections to the west coast that IND can't get by flying through STL,DEN,DAL,PHX.


This was a result of the pandemic. The point to point markets are largely business traffic - which still is no where near pre-pandemic levels. Thank goodness WN already had a broad enough network to reroute Covid traffic through larger ICO stations (intentional connection opportunity as they refer to them) when business travel evaporated. The issue they have now is they’ve retired a number of -700 aircraft while using spare capacity to open 17 new destinations. So they desperately need to acquire additional frames in order to restore these markets as well as return frequency to markets like SoCal-NorCal.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun May 30, 2021 11:37 pm

GSOtoIND wrote:
The airport has a big spread set up in Civic Plaza for SY tomorrow. Their gate will be A22.


Flew into IND last night for the 500, they still had the balloons at the gate and at the ticket desk.
Image
Image

Interesting they are sharing a gate with UA (although I don't think UA technically leases it), especially since that end of the concourse is busier now thanks to Spirit. Still only a couple flights a week, & I don't see much in the way of growth coming from SY.

Also WN added some flights this week, so PHX goes up to 4x on Saturdays in July. Didn't look at any other airline.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 01, 2021 1:37 am

Midwestindy wrote:
GSOtoIND wrote:
The airport has a big spread set up in Civic Plaza for SY tomorrow. Their gate will be A22.


Flew into IND last night for the 500, they still had the balloons at the gate and at the ticket desk.
Image
Image

Interesting they are sharing a gate with UA (although I don't think UA technically leases it), especially since that end of the concourse is busier now thanks to Spirit. Still only a couple flights a week, & I don't see much in the way of growth coming from SY.

Also WN added some flights this week, so PHX goes up to 4x on Saturdays in July. Didn't look at any other airline.

I'm pretty sure UA hasn't ever leased A22. Note that the ramp markings look nothing like their gates but are identical to A16 and A20. All 3 were Delta's original gates before the merger was completed. They've obviously used it for RONs, but SY's schedule still accommodates that if necessary.
 
indygs
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:22 pm

Curious if anyone knows about the N8 (National Airlines) 744 which paid a visit to IND yesterday. Landed from MEX around 9a and and departed this AM to CGN as N8502. Is this a new cargo flight or something else?
 
rexchase12
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 01, 2021 8:45 pm

Indy car transport?
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:34 am

indygs wrote:
Curious if anyone knows about the N8 (National Airlines) 744 which paid a visit to IND yesterday. Landed from MEX around 9a and and departed this AM to CGN as N8502. Is this a new cargo flight or something else?

I believe it's FedEx. National was flying IND-CGN during peak as well. As for MEX, I assume what was repositioning off of whatever flying National is squeezing in when the flight doesn't run.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:46 pm

AA's IND-BOS off to a fast start, inaugural flight tomorrow looks like it may go out completely full.

Lowest price ticket is $1,644 for one-way
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Boiler905
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:20 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AA's IND-BOS off to a fast start, inaugural flight tomorrow looks like it may go out completely full.

Lowest price ticket is $1,644 for one-way


If this becomes the trend, maybe WN will restart IND-BOS (after they return to IND-MCI) :D
Boiler Up
 
tphuang
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:25 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AA's IND-BOS off to a fast start, inaugural flight tomorrow looks like it may go out completely full.

Lowest price ticket is $1,644 for one-way


AA controls a larger market share in point of sale than DL out of both IND and BOS at least for domestic flights. I don't see why they can't outperform DL here.
 
flyboy80
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:06 pm

I have a hard time believing AA is too far ahead of DL in pos locally. And I’m certain the DL brand has a significantly better reputation than AA in Indy and certainly in BOS.
 
GSOtoIND
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:51 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
I have a hard time believing AA is too far ahead of DL in pos locally. And I’m certain the DL brand has a significantly better reputation than AA in Indy and certainly in BOS.

It's not about the brand. It's about flying where people want to go. DL's BOS hub has yet to pass AA in market share because AA's hubs are popular enough destinations to warrant high-frequency flights on large aircraft. The largest business markets out of IND are LGA, BOS, and DCA. American now flies to all three. PHX is a more popular destination than SLC. ORD is likely more popular than MSP and DTW combined.
 
flyboy80
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:22 pm

DL quickly went form a strong position in Indy to giving up more than I think was necessary, but I understand the fleet reductions, subsequent pilot retraining 'reshuffling' and also airport construction projects around LAX, SLC, and LGA probably played a role in their network decisions. AA may hold a stronger position given where folks are wanting to travel, but they compete to a higher degree with UA, WN, and G4 and I can only imagine this puts Delta in the better revenue position from spokes like IND- not to mention Delta can probably more profitably connect IND- Florida traffic over ATL and is the strongest carrier In NYC. The largest (missed) opportunity I see for DL is LAX; a market where the brand is more relevant- and AA swooped in and added that second frequency. Once DL gets more 220s online and grows their fleet into and beyond 2022 and airport construction is finalized in places like LAX and LGA, upping their capacities, I won't be surprised to see Delta make some adds- including mainline on LGA or BOS, 2x SLC (perhaps a 738 and a 221/223) and 2x LAX. Delta will not be successful without being aggressive in markets like IND, RDU, BNA, AUS and I think they know that. It's apparent by recent KLM adds overflying North American hubs and connecting over Skyteam European hubs remains a valuable strategy, even as demand is only started recovering. I also won't be surprised, even given the smaller 767 fleet, if IND-CDG returns 4x weekly Spring 22 and perhaps 5x summer 22. With the AA, B6, AS partnerships now placing (even more) pressure on the coasts, I expect Delta will continue to see value in it's pre-pandemic strengths- including leveraging those JVs.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:00 pm

flyboy80 wrote:
DL quickly went form a strong position in Indy to giving up more than I think was necessary, but I understand the fleet reductions, subsequent pilot retraining 'reshuffling' and also airport construction projects around LAX, SLC, and LGA probably played a role in their network decisions. AA may hold a stronger position given where folks are wanting to travel, but they compete to a higher degree with UA, WN, and G4 and I can only imagine this puts Delta in the better revenue position from spokes like IND- not to mention Delta can probably more profitably connect IND- Florida traffic over ATL and is the strongest carrier In NYC. The largest (missed) opportunity I see for DL is LAX; a market where the brand is more relevant- and AA swooped in and added that second frequency. Once DL gets more 220s online and grows their fleet into and beyond 2022 and airport construction is finalized in places like LAX and LGA, upping their capacities, I won't be surprised to see Delta make some adds- including mainline on LGA or BOS, 2x SLC (perhaps a 738 and a 221/223) and 2x LAX. Delta will not be successful without being aggressive in markets like IND, RDU, BNA, AUS and I think they know that. It's apparent by recent KLM adds overflying North American hubs and connecting over Skyteam European hubs remains a valuable strategy, even as demand is only started recovering. I also won't be surprised, even given the smaller 767 fleet, if IND-CDG returns 4x weekly Spring 22 and perhaps 5x summer 22. With the AA, B6, AS partnerships now placing (even more) pressure on the coasts, I expect Delta will continue to see value in it's pre-pandemic strengths- including leveraging those JVs.


Not sure if anyone remembers but DL was actually supposed to be 2x daily on IND-SLC in 2020, but they pulled it later. IND-MCO is probably the biggest loss since its the largest market from IND.

I wouldn't count on a return of DL on IND-CDG, the airport director is expecting TATL to come in the form of London.

GSOtoIND wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
I have a hard time believing AA is too far ahead of DL in pos locally. And I’m certain the DL brand has a significantly better reputation than AA in Indy and certainly in BOS.

It's not about the brand. It's about flying where people want to go. DL's BOS hub has yet to pass AA in market share because AA's hubs are popular enough destinations to warrant high-frequency flights on large aircraft. The largest business markets out of IND are LGA, BOS, and DCA. American now flies to all three. PHX is a more popular destination than SLC. ORD is likely more popular than MSP and DTW combined.


Of the top 15 O&D markets from IND, DL does not serve more of those markets from IND than UA, AA, WN, NK, or G4.....

IND-MSP is actually larger than IND-ORD O&D wise though, but ORD is a more popular connecting spot since it is only a 30-50 minute flight.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
dtdude
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2016 5:06 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:32 pm

I suppose only WN can answer whether MCI would cannibalize STL too much.


I'm in STL. Sure, we can't know anything for sure, but we've been given every indication that WN has no intention of letting this happen. We're still getting new routes, and they've just spent money on refurbishing and re-opening some former TW space here with plans to eventually refurbish and re-open the remainder of TWA's old D concourse (approx. 20 additional gates in all, IIRC on top of it already using the entirety of T2). We also have room for WN to more or less grow as large as it desires here.
 
flyboy80
Posts: 2135
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2001 8:10 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:50 pm

LHR would imply BA. Are they really in a position to fly that in a 788 given the Indy market dynamics? Of course it would work, but would it be as profitable with depressed corporate travel vs CDG and does Would it provide the same or even similar connectivity vs Skyteam via CDG? There were quite a few corporate customers utilizing the IND-CDG flight, however I heard not as many as CVG. Obviously there was a lot of Europe leisure traffic and then a moderate mix of trans Europe connections to India, Africa, Middle East... CDG appears to be the superior main European hub for this mix overall. I can’t see these markets being unimportant to sky team and the TA JV.
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