Jake1993P wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

Delta was also blocking middle seats until May, so I have a feeling they'll pull way ahead now that they're back to running the 739 to Atlanta, all mainline to MSP some days, and a few mainline flights to DTW as well.

Excluding Jan-Apr, AA was still much larger than DL in IND.

They simply can't pull way ahead, because they aren't operating the frequency or capacity to do so.

Last month & this month AA has been operating 500+ more seats per day than DL, and 10 more departures per day.

Delta definitely is missing DCA, that I do agree.

2020 was the year of airlines parking aircraft, laying-off and networks restructuring etc. Only recently have airlines started the slow recovery in an economy where there are still some headwinds to their individual business models. Delta certainly cut deep, but I don't think it's the only issue here. Delta isn't throwing E175s allover the place to expand daily seats and destinations the way AA appears to be.

I'm not judging Deltas commitment to the Indy market by this last irregular 18 months. Only now are they getting into a potential growth position. Once we get to around April 2022 I think will have a more realistic comparison between UA, AA, DL, WN.

After winter I will not be surprised to see Delta make strategic moves such as reestablishing connectivity out west and depending on the Atlantic situation looking into fall, it's entirely possible we see seasonal CDG service return by summer 22- It's a great captive market to use a 763ER 4x or 5x weekly 5 months out of the year, especially if they choose to eventually discontinue CVG-CDG.

It seems to me that DL has spent the entire pandemic acting like things will just go back to where they were in 2019. They have also been extremely sensitive to low fares. They like to tell everyone what a fare premium they have over competition. They kept their capacity low in the summer time after they saw the yields weren't what they were hoping for. So, I really don't see why they will change the course in IND.

There is also another uncomfortable topic here. What is the effect of NK explosion around the country. What they've added so far at IND should only be the beginning of what they will add. I don't see how DL brings back all the canceled leisure flights when NK is likely to just drive the yields of those routes off a cliff. It's one thing to compete against WN fares in a non-hub market. It's quite something else to compete against NK fares. What does more IND-Florida/MSY/CUN service from NK do to performance of AA's IND-CLT and DL's IND-ATL. What happens when NK adds IND-LAX?

I think that AA is more likely to be the top dog among the big 3 at IND based on its hubs and partners airlines. I see BA to LHR more likely than DL to CDG.

Tphuang I agree with you except a mystery is why is UA maintaining or even growing its Florida service out of CLE—- A city where the ULCCs are very entrenched now?? UA seems to charge a pretty healthy premium when I search CLE to FL compared to Spirit and Frontier. Why wouldnt Delta be able to do same in Indy?

The great thing if AA or BA were to start IND-LHR is that it would be so easy for people to drive down from Chicago to take the flight if their ORD-LHR flight was canceled due to weather in the Chicago area. Always good to have options. Not to mention the fact that it is one of the top international destinations out of IND. But let's get out of this Covid madness and get our international demand built back up.

Indy wrote:

The great thing if AA or BA were to start IND-LHR is that it would be so easy for people to drive down from Chicago to take the flight if their ORD-LHR flight was canceled due to weather in the Chicago area. Always good to have options. Not to mention the fact that it is one of the top international destinations out of IND. But let's get out of this Covid madness and get our international demand built back up.

Part of me wonders if LHR will have any more slots come open in the post-COVID era that would make IND service a reality. If that's the case, could AA/BA get their hands on enough or spare them from other discontinued service to make serving IND happen?

LHR is always about opportunity cost. If demand (and yields) are there, and there is incentive money on the table, I can't see why not. They managed to find the slots for AUS, BNA, and MSY. They will find a way to make IND work if they want to.

That is one rosy forecast, especially cargo.

flyboy80 wrote:

Delta definitely is missing DCA, that I do agree.

One issue that DL had faced at DCA was that DL had to reduce frequencies on DCA-ATL/CVG/DTW/LGA/RDU nonstop service in order to add DCA-BOS nonstop service due to the slot restrictions at DCA. DL didn't have enough slots at DCA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to add IND-DCA nonstop service, but DL does have some unused slots at DCA with DL having fewer nonstops to DCA from ATL, BOS, CVG, DTW, and LGA than it did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service might also be a possibility with WN still having some unused slots at DCA with the cuts that WN made at DCA during the COVID-19 pandemic.

exFWAOONW wrote:

That is one rosy forecast, especially cargo.

FX added a massive new sort (Project Response AKA “the sunrise sort”) and has roughly a dozen more gates coming online through ‘22.

jplatts wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

Delta definitely is missing DCA, that I do agree.

One issue that DL had faced at DCA was that DL had to reduce frequencies on DCA-ATL/CVG/DTW/LGA/RDU nonstop service in order to add DCA-BOS nonstop service due to the slot restrictions at DCA. DL didn't have enough slots at DCA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to add IND-DCA nonstop service, but DL does have some unused slots at DCA with DL having fewer nonstops to DCA from ATL, BOS, CVG, DTW, and LGA than it did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service might also be a possibility with WN still having some unused slots at DCA with the cuts that WN made at DCA during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Frankly, I doubt we'll see either one of them go back to DCA. For DL, it makes more sense to add hub capacity from a busy outstation like DCA. If you can fill and fly an A321 DCA-ATL, that's likely to have better yields than a E170 DCA-IND. In addition, for such markets, you really need at least two, well-timed flights a day.

Speaking of well-timed, this has been raised by me before in this forum so I won't try to beat a dead horse, so to speak, but WN had awful times on their IND-DCA flights. The second DCA-IND flight of the day was often a 3:30p departure. If you're going after business travelers, you've got to push that back so a full day's work can be done. It doesn't help that WN is trying to fill an entire B737, as well.

I would LOVE to have DL back on this route, but I just don't think its happening anytime soon.

Indy wrote:

The great thing if AA or BA were to start IND-LHR is that it would be so easy for people to drive down from Chicago to take the flight if their ORD-LHR flight was canceled due to weather in the Chicago area. Always good to have options. Not to mention the fact that it is one of the top international destinations out of IND. But let's get out of this Covid madness and get our international demand built back up.

I can’t imagine that the departure times for ORD-LHR would differ significantly enough from IND-LHR to provide enough time for folks to make the drive to IND to take a flight to LHR in the event of irrops.

indygs wrote:

jplatts wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

Delta definitely is missing DCA, that I do agree.

One issue that DL had faced at DCA was that DL had to reduce frequencies on DCA-ATL/CVG/DTW/LGA/RDU nonstop service in order to add DCA-BOS nonstop service due to the slot restrictions at DCA. DL didn't have enough slots at DCA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to add IND-DCA nonstop service, but DL does have some unused slots at DCA with DL having fewer nonstops to DCA from ATL, BOS, CVG, DTW, and LGA than it did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service might also be a possibility with WN still having some unused slots at DCA with the cuts that WN made at DCA during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Frankly, I doubt we'll see either one of them go back to DCA. For DL, it makes more sense to add hub capacity from a busy outstation like DCA. If you can fill and fly an A321 DCA-ATL, that's likely to have better yields than a E170 DCA-IND. In addition, for such markets, you really need at least two, well-timed flights a day.

Speaking of well-timed, this has been raised by me before in this forum so I won't try to beat a dead horse, so to speak, but WN had awful times on their IND-DCA flights. The second DCA-IND flight of the day was often a 3:30p departure. If you're going after business travelers, you've got to push that back so a full day's work can be done. It doesn't help that WN is trying to fill an entire B737, as well.

I would LOVE to have DL back on this route, but I just don't think its happening anytime soon.

Agreed.

WN and business travellers, is that even a thing? In some (smaller) markets, yes, where network breadth might trump other considerations. But in a large market like IND-DCA, the legacies will always win on product and schedule. And have a better loyalty proposition to boot. With AA hubbing at DCA (and UA at IAD), WN was never going to win that fight. There are much better opportunities for them out of IND.

As for DL, nothing in their recent behaviour indicates they would even consider flying the route. They're clearly retrenching to their hubs, and that's not just true in IND, you can see it in multiple cities up and down the country. They've shown no interest in flying p2p routes lately.

ATLgaUSA wrote:

Indy wrote:

The great thing if AA or BA were to start IND-LHR is that it would be so easy for people to drive down from Chicago to take the flight if their ORD-LHR flight was canceled due to weather in the Chicago area. Always good to have options. Not to mention the fact that it is one of the top international destinations out of IND. But let's get out of this Covid madness and get our international demand built back up.

I can’t imagine that the departure times for ORD-LHR would differ significantly enough from IND-LHR to provide enough time for folks to make the drive to IND to take a flight to LHR in the event of irrops.

I agree.

Chicago O’hare is not an easy drive. I know it pulls some traffic from Indy metro certainly due to pricing. The ORD frequencies are timed over a few hours obviously and provide slightly different LHR connection opportunities. Still, it wouldn’t work in IROPs unless you drove down and stayed the night. More likely they stay in Chicago and fly next day on several OW flights.

Regardless, I do not see BA/AA IND-LHR. If we get trans Atlantic service back in the next two years it will be Delta again or a low cost carrier.

Obviously I don’t see how Delta can run IND-CDG with the lack of 767s post pandemic. But perhaps seasonally once the net gain of wide bodies for 2022.

Last I checked they are operating RDU and CVG over the fall, off daily. I will be surprised if that sticks and isn’t pushed back to spring 22. I think if DL did get rid of CVG, then IND would be a possibility again.

flyboy80 wrote:

Regardless, I do not see BA/AA IND-LHR.

Would you mind sharing more of your thinking on this?

AA, I agree, is unlikely. But BA, you can bet, will have a hard look at it. The US is where they make their money. They're always looking for new opportunities, if only to stay ahead of the competition. Their US network is much larger than AF/KL and LH, and they will want to keep it that way. And we know incentives are available. Always helps!

I know you think DL will be coming back in IND, but I'm not so sure. And if the current market share shifts solidify, this could become an attractive market for BA, given how good long range growth prospects are for both the airport and local economy.

flyboy80 wrote:

ATLgaUSA wrote:

Indy wrote:

The great thing if AA or BA were to start IND-LHR is that it would be so easy for people to drive down from Chicago to take the flight if their ORD-LHR flight was canceled due to weather in the Chicago area. Always good to have options. Not to mention the fact that it is one of the top international destinations out of IND. But let's get out of this Covid madness and get our international demand built back up.

I can’t imagine that the departure times for ORD-LHR would differ significantly enough from IND-LHR to provide enough time for folks to make the drive to IND to take a flight to LHR in the event of irrops.

I agree.

Chicago O’hare is not an easy drive. I know it pulls some traffic from Indy metro certainly due to pricing. The ORD frequencies are timed over a few hours obviously and provide slightly different LHR connection opportunities. Still, it wouldn’t work in IROPs unless you drove down and stayed the night. More likely they stay in Chicago and fly next day on several OW flights.

Regardless, I do not see BA/AA IND-LHR. If we get trans Atlantic service back in the next two years it will be Delta again or a low cost carrier.

Obviously I don’t see how Delta can run IND-CDG with the lack of 767s post pandemic. But perhaps seasonally once the net gain of wide bodies for 2022.

Last I checked they are operating RDU and CVG over the fall, off daily. I will be surprised if that sticks and isn’t pushed back to spring 22. I think if DL did get rid of CVG, then IND would be a possibility again.

Bastian on CNBC this morning, blaming the White House for keeping travel to Europe closed. Says the Variants have had NO IMPACT on travel. They have lobbied, and presented scientific evidence, but the pols have turned a deaf ear to all of it.

BangersAndMash wrote:

But BA, you can bet, will have a hard look at it. The US is where they make their money. They're always looking for new opportunities, if only to stay ahead of the competition. Their US network is much larger than AF/KL and LH, and they will want to keep it that way. And we know incentives are available. Always helps!

I know you think DL will be coming back in IND, but I'm not so sure. And if the current market share shifts solidify, this could become an attractive market for BA, given how good long range growth prospects are for both the airport and local economy.

BA, I believe, will be the first TATL to come back to IND. Given the demand for LHR service from IND and what feels like the tide turning mightily in IND with AA vs DL, I think they'll see it as more of an opportunity than it was before, and perhaps start 3-4 a week service to build up demand once the dust settles post-COVID. Just a hunch--that's all!

indygs wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

But BA, you can bet, will have a hard look at it. The US is where they make their money. They're always looking for new opportunities, if only to stay ahead of the competition. Their US network is much larger than AF/KL and LH, and they will want to keep it that way. And we know incentives are available. Always helps!

I know you think DL will be coming back in IND, but I'm not so sure. And if the current market share shifts solidify, this could become an attractive market for BA, given how good long range growth prospects are for both the airport and local economy.

BA, I believe, will be the first TATL to come back to IND. Given the demand for LHR service from IND and what feels like the tide turning mightily in IND with AA vs DL, I think they'll see it as more of an opportunity than it was before, and perhaps start 3-4 a week service to build up demand once the dust settles post-COVID. Just a hunch--that's all!

Definitely, the opportunity is there. The only thing that could hold them back is airport size. IND is on the small side compared to what BA typically serves. Sure they tried PIT, which is similar size-wise. But then again, it's the one year-round route they dropped during Covid. Hopefully, it hasn't put them off.

The thing is, as well, with incentives, you could run that flight for a year or two without worrying about losses. That's attractive right now. Not that I think it would be an issue here. AUS, BNA, and MSY have been incredibly successful for BA (actually, I heard good things about CHS as well - it could come back in due course). There's no reason to think that they can't make IND a success, especially if they are the only game in town.

Moosefire wrote:

exFWAOONW wrote:

That is one rosy forecast, especially cargo.

FX added a massive new sort (Project Response AKA “the sunrise sort”) and has roughly a dozen more gates coming online through ‘22.

I think it's a pretty realistic forecast especially for cargo, and on the passenger side the airport always under-budgets(intentionally) passenger enplanements.

Midwestindy wrote:

Moosefire wrote:

exFWAOONW wrote:

That is one rosy forecast, especially cargo.

FX added a massive new sort (Project Response AKA “the sunrise sort”) and has roughly a dozen more gates coming online through ‘22.

I think it's a pretty realistic forecast especially for cargo, and on the passenger side the airport always under-budgets(intentionally) passenger enplanements.

I was about to say. This passenger forecast seems low compared to some of the figures floated before. Weren't they talking about something around the 7M pax ballpark for this year?

With DL going 5x A320 on IND-MSP, I think there is a good chance IND-SLC/SEA don't return until middle of next year.


Also, I find it very interesting that F9 on IND-DEN is offering a 10:30PM departure some days starting next month....

Midwestindy wrote:

With DL going 5x A320 on IND-MSP, I think there is a good chance IND-SLC/SEA don't return until middle of next year.


Also, I find it very interesting that F9 on IND-DEN is offering a 10:30PM departure some days starting next month....

That's a good way for F9 to kill the load factors for that route.

Will be interested to see if AC re-enters IND after Canada opens its borders again. If so, will they keep it RJs or maybe up gauge with fewer frequencies?

indygs wrote:

Will be interested to see if AC re-enters IND after Canada opens its borders again. If so, will they keep it RJs or maybe up gauge with fewer frequencies?

The article from AC said they plan to add back all cities.

indygs wrote:

Will be interested to see if AC re-enters IND after Canada opens its borders again. If so, will they keep it RJs or maybe up gauge with fewer frequencies?

Do you think the refreshed newly E2ed Porter, or the new Connect Airlines (if they ever launch - that's suddenly gone all quiet) might give IND a try?

Have heard Contour may once again give IND service a shot along the lines of what had been announced 1.5+ years ago. Should know more this week.

indygs wrote:

Have heard Contour may once again give IND service a shot along the lines of what had been announced 1.5+ years ago. Should know more this week.

Cool! I wished they'd codeshare with AA. I know they interline, but a codeshare would be better. At the very least, ability to earn miles.

The destinations they were planning, if that's still the plan, let's face it, AA is unlikely to ever serve, and hub connections for these are not efficient. They might as well add value to their local ff base at minimal cost with a partnership.

indygs wrote:

Have heard Contour may once again give IND service a shot along the lines of what had been announced 1.5+ years ago. Should know more this week.

Yep, we are a go, contract was renegotiated in June... STL is out



https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd830812f

Midwestindy wrote:

indygs wrote:

Have heard Contour may once again give IND service a shot along the lines of what had been announced 1.5+ years ago. Should know more this week.

Yep, we are a go, contract was renegotiated in June... STL is out



https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd830812f

Are we thinking PIT/BNA to start?

I do find it odd they just axed STL completely. Might as well just leave it on the list of maybes... but whatever.

Contour should have a go at RDU before DL resumes it or AA starts it.

ATAIndy wrote:

Contour should have a go at RDU before DL resumes it or AA starts it.

Doesn't smack me as a particularly smart move. Actually, I'm surprised RDU is on that list at all. Contour must know that the prospect of that route remaining uncontested is slim. Whatever they try out of IND must rely on the premise that they'll have the route to themselves.

BangersAndMash wrote:

ATAIndy wrote:

Contour should have a go at RDU before DL resumes it or AA starts it.

Doesn't smack me as a particularly smart move. Actually, I'm surprised RDU is on that list at all. Contour must know that the prospect of that route remaining uncontested is slim. Whatever they try out of IND must rely on the premise that they'll have the route to themselves.

Good to see MKE. That route was always a winner from IND, until the Frontier days. Some frequency would build it back up pretty quickly.

BangersAndMash wrote:

ATAIndy wrote:

Contour should have a go at RDU before DL resumes it or AA starts it.

Doesn't smack me as a particularly smart move. Actually, I'm surprised RDU is on that list at all. Contour must know that the prospect of that route remaining uncontested is slim. Whatever they try out of IND must rely on the premise that they'll have the route to themselves.

RDU, MKE, and MCI seem to be the most attractive. At two a day, they can easily rotate crews daily out of Nashville.

FlyingElvii wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

ATAIndy wrote:

Contour should have a go at RDU before DL resumes it or AA starts it.

Doesn't smack me as a particularly smart move. Actually, I'm surprised RDU is on that list at all. Contour must know that the prospect of that route remaining uncontested is slim. Whatever they try out of IND must rely on the premise that they'll have the route to themselves.

RDU, MKE, and MCI seem to be the most attractive. At two a day, they can easily rotate crews daily out of Nashville.

MKE, I'm with you. But RDU and MCI, I think are probably the least attractive. RDU, I've already talked about. I'm expecting DL to return and/or AA to launch. Probably both. If either happens, there is no market left for Contour. MCI is like STL, which WN launched after Contour first announced, just worse. WN is strong in both and there's a good chance they'll join and kill it for Contour, especially if it's successful.

I think everybody agrees PIT and MKE are the potential stars here. Long enough to make flying worthwhile compared to driving, and small enough to minimise the risk of a competitive response. BNA and CLE depend on how much road traffic they can tempt to switch. Riskier, but BNA is a large market, and CLE has a strong healthcare-focused economy so you'd think there is some traffic there for the taking.

I still think a partnership with AA would help. Deeper than what is in place now, anyway.

If Contour could get a contract with FedEx like Delta had for a few months MEM would be a good choice.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Jshank83 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

indygs wrote:

Have heard Contour may once again give IND service a shot along the lines of what had been announced 1.5+ years ago. Should know more this week.

Yep, we are a go, contract was renegotiated in June... STL is out



https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd830812f

Are we thinking PIT/BNA to start?

I do find it odd they just axed STL completely. Might as well just leave it on the list of maybes... but whatever.

Selfishly would like to see them start IND-MCI/BNA.

IIRC the contract is authorized by the state, but the IND air service team is determining the routes to include so that would lead me to believe STL will return on WN.

Although them including IND-RDU on here is weird.

Midwestindy wrote:

IIRC the contract is authorized by the state, but the IND air service team is determining the routes to include so that would lead me to believe STL will return on WN.

If that's the case, it's pretty crazy IMO. Contour would be a better option for that route.

It's close in so you've got driving to factor in. Is a 737 the right aircraft? I'm sceptical. And WN's LF were pretty lousy in the short time they flew it. The E135 would be a better fit for that market. It would support more frequencies for starter, for a better schedule.

I can see the why WN did it, but I still think it's stupid. I see them trying it for a bit and then dropping it again.

BangersAndMash wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

IIRC the contract is authorized by the state, but the IND air service team is determining the routes to include so that would lead me to believe STL will return on WN.

If that's the case, it's pretty crazy IMO. Contour would be a better option for that route.

It's close in so you've got driving to factor in. Is a 737 the right aircraft? I'm sceptical. And WN's LF were pretty lousy in the short time they flew it. The E135 would be a better fit for that market. It would support more frequencies for starter, for a better schedule.

I can see the why WN did it, but I still think it's stupid. I see them trying it for a bit and then dropping it again.

They flew it in the middle of the pandemic, of course the loads were bad, everything was bad. IND to STL is treated like any other spoke they have, DSM/ICT/LIT/OKC, etc. As long as they time connections right it will be fine.

I think contour would be worse on it because then it has to be pretty much all O&D, which I am skeptical they could even fill half the plane with.

BangersAndMash wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

IIRC the contract is authorized by the state, but the IND air service team is determining the routes to include so that would lead me to believe STL will return on WN.

If that's the case, it's pretty crazy IMO. Contour would be a better option for that route.

It's close in so you've got driving to factor in. Is a 737 the right aircraft? I'm sceptical. And WN's LF were pretty lousy in the short time they flew it. The E135 would be a better fit for that market. It would support more frequencies for starter, for a better schedule.

I can see the why WN did it, but I still think it's stupid. I see them trying it for a bit and then dropping it again.

One of the main reasons why WN dropped IND-STL nonstop service is that O&D demand between most of the Midwestern city pairs is significantly weaker due to the pandemic than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. There were also very few passengers making connections to MSP, OMA, or STL through MDW on WN prior to WN dropping IND-MDW nonstop service (even prior to the pandemic).

WN is still able to connect passengers to most of the WN destinations outside of the Midwest from IND through other cities such as ATL, BWI, DAL, DEN, HOU, LAS, or PHX, even with WN not currently serving any Midwestern destinations nonstop from IND.

WN also currently has fewer daily nonstops on MDW-CVG/CMH/CLE/DTW/MCI/MSP/OMA/STL and STL-CLE/DSM/MCI/MKE/OMA/ICT than it did prior to the pandemic, and WN STL-CMH/DTW/MSP nonstop service is still suspended (but still scheduled to resume on a Sunday-only basis in September).

Is it realistic for WN to bank on connections though, when you have multiple daily flights to ORD and DTW, which are much larger connecting hubs than STL? To be competitive, WN would need to offer more than a flight a day, which is what they were flying, if memory serves.

Connections will only take you so far. If you're right and there isn't enough O&D to even fill an E135, you'd need a hell of a lot of connections to make the flight work. And even if those connections were there (and I'm not sure they are), haven't we seen it all before on IND-MDW? Sure, there was enough traffic, but overwhelmingly low-yielding at crap fares and profitability sucked. So they jacked the prices up, and the flyers went elsewhere.

Whichever way you look at it, I can't see how IND-STL can work on WN.

BangersAndMash wrote:

Is it realistic for WN to bank on connections though, when you have multiple daily flights to ORD and DTW, which are much larger connecting hubs than STL? To be competitive, WN would need to offer more than a flight a day, which is what they were flying, if memory serves.

Connections will only take you so far. If you're right and there isn't enough O&D to even fill an E135, you'd need a hell of a lot of connections to make the flight work. And even if those connections were there (and I'm not sure they are), haven't we seen it all before on IND-MDW? Sure, there was enough traffic, but overwhelmingly low-yielding at crap fares and profitability sucked. So they jacked the prices up, and the flyers went elsewhere.

Whichever way you look at it, I can't see how IND-STL can work on WN.

The original STL-IND schedule had 2 flights. Morning and evening. Just like the pre covid schedules for the other ones I listed.

LIT/TUL-STL only had an O&D in the 30s each way for 2019. So it doesn’t take much for connection s to work if they put them in a bank that makes sense

BangersAndMash wrote:

Is it realistic for WN to bank on connections though, when you have multiple daily flights to ORD and DTW, which are much larger connecting hubs than STL? To be competitive, WN would need to offer more than a flight a day, which is what they were flying, if memory serves.

Connections will only take you so far. If you're right and there isn't enough O&D to even fill an E135, you'd need a hell of a lot of connections to make the flight work. And even if those connections were there (and I'm not sure they are), haven't we seen it all before on IND-MDW? Sure, there was enough traffic, but overwhelmingly low-yielding at crap fares and profitability sucked. So they jacked the prices up, and the flyers went elsewhere.

Whichever way you look at it, I can't see how IND-STL can work on WN.

WN had decent load factors on STL-DSM/MKE/OKC/OMA/TUL nonstop service, even with only 1x daily nonstop on these routes, in April 2021, but DSM-STL and TUL-STL are the only WN flights east from DSM and TUL. The situation isn't nearly as bad on the STL-MKE/OKC/OMA routes with WN operating MKE-DAL/DEN/HOU/LAS/PHX, OKC-ATL/MDW, and OMA-ATL/MDW nonstop service.

DSM, MKE, OKC, OMA, and TUL are also all further from STL (by both great circle distance and driving distance) than IND.

My bad on the frequencies.

We all know LFs don't tell the full story. While having planeloads is a good place to start, it doesn't mean the flight is making money. If you're relying disproportionately on connections, it's that much harder.

I'm still not convinced it's gonna work. But I guess we'll find out soon enough.

BangersAndMash wrote:

indygs wrote:

jplatts wrote:

One issue that DL had faced at DCA was that DL had to reduce frequencies on DCA-ATL/CVG/DTW/LGA/RDU nonstop service in order to add DCA-BOS nonstop service due to the slot restrictions at DCA. DL didn't have enough slots at DCA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to add IND-DCA nonstop service, but DL does have some unused slots at DCA with DL having fewer nonstops to DCA from ATL, BOS, CVG, DTW, and LGA than it did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

WN re-adding IND-DCA nonstop service might also be a possibility with WN still having some unused slots at DCA with the cuts that WN made at DCA during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Frankly, I doubt we'll see either one of them go back to DCA. For DL, it makes more sense to add hub capacity from a busy outstation like DCA. If you can fill and fly an A321 DCA-ATL, that's likely to have better yields than a E170 DCA-IND. In addition, for such markets, you really need at least two, well-timed flights a day.

Speaking of well-timed, this has been raised by me before in this forum so I won't try to beat a dead horse, so to speak, but WN had awful times on their IND-DCA flights. The second DCA-IND flight of the day was often a 3:30p departure. If you're going after business travelers, you've got to push that back so a full day's work can be done. It doesn't help that WN is trying to fill an entire B737, as well.

I would LOVE to have DL back on this route, but I just don't think its happening anytime soon.

Agreed.

WN and business travellers, is that even a thing? In some (smaller) markets, yes, where network breadth might trump other considerations. But in a large market like IND-DCA, the legacies will always win on product and schedule. And have a better loyalty proposition to boot. With AA hubbing at DCA (and UA at IAD), WN was never going to win that fight. There are much better opportunities for them out of IND.

As for DL, nothing in their recent behaviour indicates they would even consider flying the route. They're clearly retrenching to their hubs, and that's not just true in IND, you can see it in multiple cities up and down the country. They've shown no interest in flying p2p routes lately.

Is it possible to be the largest domestic carrier and NOT carry business passengers? I don't think so. I personally know many people who fly SWA for their business trips.

Intra-cal, DAL-HOU, etc are much more than just VFR travelers with the # of daily flights they each have.

https://www.ind.com/about/media/media-r ... ours-early

"An uptick in summer air travel is creating longer lines through security at peak travel times throughout the day, and this can affect travelers ability to arrive at their gate on time"

"Over the last month, during that early morning timeframe, more travelers are flying through the Indy airport than did prior to the pandemic. It’s anticipated this increase in passenger traffic in the early morning hours will continue through the fall."

Boiler905 wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

indygs wrote:

Frankly, I doubt we'll see either one of them go back to DCA. For DL, it makes more sense to add hub capacity from a busy outstation like DCA. If you can fill and fly an A321 DCA-ATL, that's likely to have better yields than a E170 DCA-IND. In addition, for such markets, you really need at least two, well-timed flights a day.

Speaking of well-timed, this has been raised by me before in this forum so I won't try to beat a dead horse, so to speak, but WN had awful times on their IND-DCA flights. The second DCA-IND flight of the day was often a 3:30p departure. If you're going after business travelers, you've got to push that back so a full day's work can be done. It doesn't help that WN is trying to fill an entire B737, as well.

I would LOVE to have DL back on this route, but I just don't think its happening anytime soon.

Agreed.

WN and business travellers, is that even a thing? In some (smaller) markets, yes, where network breadth might trump other considerations. But in a large market like IND-DCA, the legacies will always win on product and schedule. And have a better loyalty proposition to boot. With AA hubbing at DCA (and UA at IAD), WN was never going to win that fight. There are much better opportunities for them out of IND.

As for DL, nothing in their recent behaviour indicates they would even consider flying the route. They're clearly retrenching to their hubs, and that's not just true in IND, you can see it in multiple cities up and down the country. They've shown no interest in flying p2p routes lately.

Is it possible to be the largest domestic carrier and NOT carry business passengers? I don't think so. I personally know many people who fly SWA for their business trips.

Intra-cal, DAL-HOU, etc are much more than just VFR travelers with the # of daily flights they each have.

I'm not saying they're not carrying any, just that they are at a disadvantage compared to legacies with that segment. Particularly so on a route like IND-WAS (which is what the original post was about), with 2 legacies hubbing in DC. For sure, they'll be attractive to business travellers in their bigger stations like BWI, BNA, or STL, where they offer a large network which will offset some of the shortcomings of their product.

WN themselves have said quite recently that they'd love to attract more business travellers.

BangersAndMash wrote:

Boiler905 wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

Agreed.

WN and business travellers, is that even a thing? In some (smaller) markets, yes, where network breadth might trump other considerations. But in a large market like IND-DCA, the legacies will always win on product and schedule. And have a better loyalty proposition to boot. With AA hubbing at DCA (and UA at IAD), WN was never going to win that fight. There are much better opportunities for them out of IND.

As for DL, nothing in their recent behaviour indicates they would even consider flying the route. They're clearly retrenching to their hubs, and that's not just true in IND, you can see it in multiple cities up and down the country. They've shown no interest in flying p2p routes lately.

Is it possible to be the largest domestic carrier and NOT carry business passengers? I don't think so. I personally know many people who fly SWA for their business trips.

Intra-cal, DAL-HOU, etc are much more than just VFR travelers with the # of daily flights they each have.

I'm not saying they're not carrying any, just that they are at a disadvantage compared to legacies with that segment. Particularly so on a route like IND-WAS (which is what the original post was about), with 2 legacies hubbing in DC. For sure, they'll be attractive to business travellers in their bigger stations like BWI, BNA, or STL, where they offer a large network which will offset some of the shortcomings of their product.

WN themselves have said quite recently that they'd love to attract more business travellers.

I mean from a station like IND, I can't imagine they make up a large chunk of business travel at all. The only reason they are the largest in terms of market share in IND, is because they dominate IND-Florida.

They don't serve any of the major IND business markets: LA, NYC, BOS, DC. And the "business routes" they serve like ATL, AUS, DAL, & HOU are all served at better frequency (and arguably timing) by other carriers. They also don't have any high frequency connecting options from IND, like ORD (UA/AA) or ATL (DL) so it would be much more difficult to accommodate travel changes on IND business trips with WN.

Midwestindy wrote:

With DL going 5x A320 on IND-MSP, I think there is a good chance IND-SLC/SEA don't return until middle of next year.

Now they are going 2x A321 & 3x A320 on IND-MSP in September. Just wack that they aren't flying IND-SLC given they ran it during the pandemic.

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According to the Q1 pax data, IND was very strong to Florida

Fort Myers (excluding PGD) - IND was the 6th largest market (larger than DC, Philly, ATL, e.t.c)
Sarasota - IND was the 6th largest market
Tampa - IND was 9th largest market (larger than Philly or Dallas)
Orlando (excluding SFB) - IND was 14th largest market, so not actually too high

Will be interesting to see what schedules look like for next March

AA will leapfrog 2019 capacity levels in October, up to 42 departures, obviously much larger than what any other carrier has scheduled.

14 Aircraft RON, & only 3 routes are below 2019 frequency/capacity....but 7 are above 2019 capacity.