April Passengers
66.9% of 2019
1422.9% of 2020

April Cargo
+40.1% vs. 2020
+31.6% vs. 2019

By carrier:
AC - 0% of 2019
DL - 35.3% of 2019
G4 - 62.4% of 2019
UA - 63.5% of 2019
AA - 67.0% of 2019
WN - 76.7% of 2019
AS - 82.5% of 2019
F9 - 89.8% of 2019
NK - 318.4% of 2019


April 2021 YTD passenger figures
RDU-1,703,924
CLE-1,647,368
IND-1,626,591
MCI-1,589,956
SAT-1,542,712
CVG-1,399,628
SNA-1,316,980
SJC-1,250,771
PIT-1,236,742
CMH-1,233,265
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 0604100708

PIT, and CMH at the bottom, surprising?

It'll be interesting when California reopens more where SNA and SJC end up on the year end list

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Midwestindy wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

LHR would imply BA. Are they really in a position to fly that in a 788 given the Indy market dynamics? Of course it would work, but would it be as profitable with depressed corporate travel vs CDG and does Would it provide the same or even similar connectivity vs Skyteam via CDG? There were quite a few corporate customers utilizing the IND-CDG flight, however I heard not as many as CVG. Obviously there was a lot of Europe leisure traffic and then a moderate mix of trans Europe connections to India, Africa, Middle East... CDG appears to be the superior main European hub for this mix overall. I can’t see these markets being unimportant to sky team and the TA JV.

I don't think DL thinks IND TATL is important at this point, but even if they did I don't think they have the aircraft to fly it as the B767s are being retired soon.

LON always made the most sense since it is where ~20% of the European O&D was before IND-CDG was started, and once CDG was started most people weren't using the Paris flight to connect to London.

CVG & IND were almost identical TATL O&D wise pre-covid (see post #1185 below), but it would be expected that CVG-CDG would have more corporate customers than IND-CDG, considering it is a DL stronghold and that route was around long before IND-CDG.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411861&p=21855175&hilit=655#p21855175

So is IND-CDG on DAL cancelled permanently?

fedex1 wrote:

PIT, and CMH at the bottom, surprising?

Are they lacking some of the transcon service the others would've already gotten back? CMH-LAX went from AA AND DL to no service at all, with NK picking it up in a couple days.

CMH-SFO hasn't returned, either.

That’s what I’m asking? That’s a decent size pax gap to me! I am wanting you guys in the know, and industry to tell me. I truly haven’t a clue, love reading and learning the industry. I read a lot of threads.

strangeplanes wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

LHR would imply BA. Are they really in a position to fly that in a 788 given the Indy market dynamics? Of course it would work, but would it be as profitable with depressed corporate travel vs CDG and does Would it provide the same or even similar connectivity vs Skyteam via CDG? There were quite a few corporate customers utilizing the IND-CDG flight, however I heard not as many as CVG. Obviously there was a lot of Europe leisure traffic and then a moderate mix of trans Europe connections to India, Africa, Middle East... CDG appears to be the superior main European hub for this mix overall. I can’t see these markets being unimportant to sky team and the TA JV.

I don't think DL thinks IND TATL is important at this point, but even if they did I don't think they have the aircraft to fly it as the B767s are being retired soon.

LON always made the most sense since it is where ~20% of the European O&D was before IND-CDG was started, and once CDG was started most people weren't using the Paris flight to connect to London.

CVG & IND were almost identical TATL O&D wise pre-covid (see post #1185 below), but it would be expected that CVG-CDG would have more corporate customers than IND-CDG, considering it is a DL stronghold and that route was around long before IND-CDG.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411861&p=21855175&hilit=655#p21855175

So is IND-CDG on DAL cancelled permanently?

For all intents and purposes, yes

DeltaRules wrote:

fedex1 wrote:

PIT, and CMH at the bottom, surprising?

Are they lacking some of the transcon service the others would've already gotten back? CMH-LAX went from AA AND DL to no service at all, with NK picking it up in a couple days.

CMH-SFO hasn't returned, either.

Probably also worth mentioning that LCK takes away some pax from CMH's numbers.

Midwestindy wrote:

strangeplanes wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

I don't think DL thinks IND TATL is important at this point, but even if they did I don't think they have the aircraft to fly it as the B767s are being retired soon.

LON always made the most sense since it is where ~20% of the European O&D was before IND-CDG was started, and once CDG was started most people weren't using the Paris flight to connect to London.

CVG & IND were almost identical TATL O&D wise pre-covid (see post #1185 below), but it would be expected that CVG-CDG would have more corporate customers than IND-CDG, considering it is a DL stronghold and that route was around long before IND-CDG.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1411861&p=21855175&hilit=655#p21855175

So is IND-CDG on DAL cancelled permanently?

For all intents and purposes, yes

DeltaRules wrote:

fedex1 wrote:

PIT, and CMH at the bottom, surprising?

Are they lacking some of the transcon service the others would've already gotten back? CMH-LAX went from AA AND DL to no service at all, with NK picking it up in a couple days.

CMH-SFO hasn't returned, either.

Probably also worth mentioning that LCK takes away some pax from CMH's numbers.

Good point regarding CMH/LCK. When you add in G4’s ~66k passengers it brings Columbus to 1,299,333. Still not great but not last either.

PIT is in a state who's governor imposed some of the nation's harshest COVID restrictions and lock downs. The result has been a disproportionately high number of business shutdowns and unemployment rate and that is reflected in PIT falling several places in the rankings. It was just above CLE in 2018. The energy industry is also stagnant which has not helped.

CMHtraveler wrote:

Good point regarding CMH/LCK. When you add in G4’s ~66k passengers it brings Columbus to 1,299,333. Still not great but not last either

It is when you add LBE to PIT's numbers.

flyPIT wrote:

PIT is in a state who's governor imposed some of the nation's harshest COVID restrictions and lock downs. The result has been a disproportionately high number of business shutdowns and unemployment rate and that is reflected in PIT falling several places in the rankings. It was just above CLE in 2018. The energy industry is also stagnant which has not helped.

CMHtraveler wrote:

Good point regarding CMH/LCK. When you add in G4’s ~66k passengers it brings Columbus to 1,299,333. Still not great but not last either

It is when you add LBE to PIT's numbers.

Eh... can see the argument but on the flip side LCK is in the city of Columbus. LBE is 60 miles from PIT. DAY is 75 miles from CMH, should we add that to the CMH numbers? Gotta draw the line somewhere.

CMHtraveler wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

PIT is in a state who's governor imposed some of the nation's harshest COVID restrictions and lock downs. The result has been a disproportionately high number of business shutdowns and unemployment rate and that is reflected in PIT falling several places in the rankings. It was just above CLE in 2018. The energy industry is also stagnant which has not helped.

CMHtraveler wrote:

Good point regarding CMH/LCK. When you add in G4’s ~66k passengers it brings Columbus to 1,299,333. Still not great but not last either

It is when you add LBE to PIT's numbers.

Eh... can see the argument but on the flip side LCK is in the city of Columbus. LBE is 60 miles from PIT. DAY is 75 miles from CMH, should we add that to the CMH numbers? Gotta draw the line somewhere.

Doesn’t matter that LCK is in “The City of Columbus”. The geographic city limits of Columbus is huge. One of the largest in the nation. The city limits of Pittsburgh are tiny. One of the smallest in the nation for a major city. PIT isn’t even located in Pittsburgh. This is not how we measure airport catchment areas.

LBE is 32 miles from downtown Pittsburgh, is within the Pgh MSA, and draws from the Pgh MSA and CSA. That’s what matters. DAY is not in the Columbus MSA or CSA.

flyPIT wrote:

CMHtraveler wrote:

flyPIT wrote:

PIT is in a state who's governor imposed some of the nation's harshest COVID restrictions and lock downs. The result has been a disproportionately high number of business shutdowns and unemployment rate and that is reflected in PIT falling several places in the rankings. It was just above CLE in 2018. The energy industry is also stagnant which has not helped.



It is when you add LBE to PIT's numbers.

Eh... can see the argument but on the flip side LCK is in the city of Columbus. LBE is 60 miles from PIT. DAY is 75 miles from CMH, should we add that to the CMH numbers? Gotta draw the line somewhere.

Doesn’t matter that LCK is in “The City of Columbus”. The geographic city limits of Columbus is huge. One of the largest in the nation. The city limits of Pittsburgh are tiny. One of the smallest in the nation for a major city. PIT isn’t even located in Pittsburgh. This is not how we measure airport catchment areas.

LBE is 32 miles from downtown Pittsburgh, is within the Pgh MSA, and draws from the Pgh MSA and CSA. That’s what matters. DAY is not in the Columbus MSA or CSA.

Fair enough, I’m not very familiar with the geography of western PA. I guess the better comparison is CLE and CAK. Especially because NK serves both PIT and LBE (whereas G4 serves only LCK and not CMH).

Anyway, no reason to be overly concerned about passenger data comparisons right now because economic recovery is really uneven and so is the return of service. The trend is what matters and things are looking a lot more rosy in all of these cities right now than they did a year ago. CMH has 3 or 4 new routes starting this month and more the next- I’m sure most of these cities are in the same boat. We’ll see what the numbers look like at the end of the year.

City limits doesn't matter. For a catchment area, you pretty much can draw a line around any feasible airport at a 2 to a 2.5 hour driving radius.

I was looking at AA's website and it looks like PHX is outselling even the A320. 7 of the next 12 days see an A321 on one flight or the other.

AA will be adding two flights a day to Austin starting in early September. https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx

P1TBULL wrote:

AA will be adding two flights a day to Austin starting in early September. https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx

Midwestindy wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

indygs wrote:

IND is no AUS but I do wonder if there's a chapter of the post-COVID recovery where we see a bit of a dump of seats in markets such as IND to try and wrestle away market share for the long-term, almost like what NW did back when ATA retreated and they burst on to the scene. Yes, the conditions are vastly different than they were then, but the incremental difference for DL or AA to add some P2P routes in addition to what they have now wouldn't be as significant as the build up of NW back then. And I've got to think there will still be incentive dollars from the state and city that could be tapped.

One route that caught my eye in particular was IND-BOS, while PDEW was only ~44 in Q4 (down from 250 in Q4 2019), AA passengers made up 40% of that traffic compared to DL's 32%.

It wasn't just at BOS that AA gained market share, AA surpassed DL's market share on IND-RDU which was another DL stronghold from IND, and one of the strongest DL routes from RDU. AA was also much larger than DL on IND-LAX, and carried nearly 30 PDEW on IND-RSW in Q4 without even offering a nonstop.

Now, I understand that COVID caused certain market dynamics to temporarily change, however, I think this is a sign of things to come especially on routes like IND-BOS where DL just removed 1 of its frequencies permanently.

My eyes would be on AUS, RDU, or Florida if AA were to add additional p2p from IND.

New route IND-MCO sat only this summer:

https://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2 ... fault.aspx

Like clockwork

RDU seems quite likely now, maybe even TPA as well where they also just announced more p2p routes

I agree Midwest. RDU seems almost inevitable at this point. A frequency increase for MCO, adding TPA and possibly RSW would make sense for AA. I would see all of these routes being flown by RPA on an E175. RPA has the local crew base and aircraft to support the increase.

Is it me, or have there be a ton of new routes added in recent months? I wonder how demand will change once business travel picks up. This has to bode well for the passenger forecast for the second half of the year and even more so for 2022.

Indy wrote:

Is it me, or have there be a ton of new routes added in recent months? I wonder how demand will change once business travel picks up. This has to bode well for the passenger forecast for the second half of the year and even more so for 2022.

Lots of "lifestyle" and leisure adds for sure- and the legacy carriers seem to have different ways (visions) of countering that growth coming from the LCC space. I personally like Delta's strategy here- they appear to be, not excitingly, focusing on core markets which I think will be beneficial for them operationally during this next year recovery period as they put the airline back together and eventually gear up to start increasing the fleet size in the years ahead again. American on the other hand is getting on its feet, adding left and right. I don't see how that strategy is going to be a good one unless there have been serious demographic shifts and they really anticipate a larger point-of-sale presence outside their major-hub-metro areas. They have a lot of high cost to spread across low fare p2p (non-business) markets. I'm hopeful LCC growth will catapult their own costs higher during this recovery period as they seek to expand into more "legacy heavy" markets and compete with those carriers- which obviously includes Southwest. I'm skeptical about consolidation but with SY, F9, NK, G4 there will eventually be motivation to combine to increase revenues. It seems to me eventually this leisure destination demand is going to decline.

March LFs
AS IND-SEA-56.5%

AA IND-CLT-90.8%
AA IND-MIA-88.0%
AA IND-DFW-76.3%
AA IND-PHX-76.2%
AA IND-PhL-74.0%
AA IND-DCA-73.2%

G4 IND-SRQ-69.5%
G4 IND-PGD-65.7%
G4 IND-LAS-65.1%
G4 IND-SFB-64.1%
G4 IND-FLL-63.4%
G4 IND-PBI-61.7%
G4 IND-PIE-60.6%
G4 IND-JAX-60.3%
G4 IND-VPS-60.3%
G4 IND-SAV-52.2%
G4 IND-AUS-50.0%
G4 IND-TUS-48.2%
G4 IND-CHS-39.8%
G4 IND-MSY-29.8%

Load Factor caps
DL IND-MSP-62.3%
DL IND-ATL-54.5%
DL IND-LGA-42.0%
DL IND-DTW-41.3%

F9 IND-LAS-90.0%
F9 IND-MCO-87.1%
F9 IND-DEN-83.7%

WN IND-SRQ-96.0%
WN IND-LAS-93.2%
WN IND-RSW-93.2%
WN IND-PHX-92.6%
WN IND-DEN-89.8%
WN IND-MCO-89.4%
WN IND-DAL-89.0%
WN IND-TPA-88.7%
WN IND-ATL-88.7%
WN IND-HOU-82.3%
WN IND-FLL-80.8%
WN IND-BWI-71.7%
WN IND-AUS-65.3%

NK IND-TPA-94.4%
NK IND-RSW-94.1%
NK IND-LAS-92.0%
NK IND-MCO-91.2%
NK IND-FLL-86.2%

UA IND-RSW-90.0%
UA IND-DEN-84.6%
UA IND-IAH-84.6%
UA IND-IAD-83.8%
UA IND-EWR-78.3%

Indy wrote:

Is it me, or have there be a ton of new routes added in recent months? I wonder how demand will change once business travel picks up. This has to bode well for the passenger forecast for the second half of the year and even more so for 2022.

Late August schedules will likely get additional tweaking, but for early August (which could very well also be adjusted) lots of core business routes routes will be near pre-covid capacity. Which isn't that surprising since Indianapolis' business travel is less "professional services" focused compared to the larger cities on the coast.

To be fair also, pretty much every airport has seen a ton of new routes in the past year.

flyboy80 wrote:

Indy wrote:

Is it me, or have there be a ton of new routes added in recent months? I wonder how demand will change once business travel picks up. This has to bode well for the passenger forecast for the second half of the year and even more so for 2022.

I personally like Delta's strategy here- they appear to be, not excitingly, focusing on core markets which I think will be beneficial for them operationally during this next year recovery period as they put the airline back together and eventually gear up to start increasing the fleet size in the years ahead again. American on the other hand is getting on its feet, adding left and right. I don't see how that strategy is going to be a good one unless there have been serious demographic shifts and they really anticipate a larger point-of-sale presence outside their major-hub-metro areas. They have a lot of high cost to spread across low fare p2p (non-business) markets.

I've said it in the past, but DL's strength is not just its core hubs, ATL, SLC, DTW, & MSP.

Yes those are extremely important, but without competitive networks in cities outside those core hubs, the ability to funnel passengers through those hubs at high fares/yields is diminished.

If you don't have a strong network outside your core markets, you won't be able to effectively compete for large corporate contracts & you lose pricing power in non-core markets.

Essentially my point here is that DL should not be complacent with just focusing on its core markets.

Midwestindy wrote:

I've said it in the past, but DL's strength is not just its core hubs, ATL, SLC, DTW, & MSP.

Yes those are extremely important, but without competitive networks in cities outside those core hubs, the ability to funnel passengers through those hubs at high fares/yields is diminished.

If you don't have a strong network outside your core markets, you won't be able to effectively compete for large corporate contracts & you lose pricing power in non-core markets.

Essentially my point here is that DL should not be complacent with just focusing on its core markets.

We're in the phase now where they seriously need to start building out some adds and connecting dots going into fall. Indy specific examples would be things like 2x SLC and 2x LAX (but they would need to fund that from other markets). Even the CEO of Delta is acknowledging the return of the business travelers and they want to be that travelers preferred carrier as always. I would love to say that Delta is a shark in the water right now, waiting for the right moment to strike, however, I'm not sure that can be accomplished with the volume (lack of) airplane units they have post pandemic. It's almost as if it will put them in a position where they can't be half in some markets, as it will cost them elsewhere. Perhaps what we see these summer months is as good as it gets for DL's Indy future- that would be sad given where they were pre-pandemic.

Yes, load factors to a number of places were quite nice, but remember, fares to a number of places were absolutely dirt cheap.

stlgph wrote:

Yes, load factors to a number of places were quite nice, but remember, fares to a number of places were absolutely dirt cheap.

Maybe from other places but not really IND, remember March Madness was occurring during this time, IND saw the 7th highest increase in searches in the entire world in March. The LFs would be much higher if you don't count the first week or two of March.

If you have load factors as high as some of those flights were, filled entirely with low fares, then the airline revenue management teams are failing at their jobs.

Wneast wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

March LFs
AS IND-SEA-56.5%

AA IND-CLT-90.8%
AA IND-MIA-88.0%
AA IND-DFW-76.3%
AA IND-PHX-76.2%
AA IND-PhL-74.0%
AA IND-DCA-73.2%

G4 IND-SRQ-69.5%
G4 IND-PGD-65.7%
G4 IND-LAS-65.1%
G4 IND-SFB-64.1%
G4 IND-FLL-63.4%
G4 IND-PBI-61.7%
G4 IND-PIE-60.6%
G4 IND-JAX-60.3%
G4 IND-VPS-60.3%
G4 IND-SAV-52.2%
G4 IND-AUS-50.0%
G4 IND-TUS-48.2%
G4 IND-CHS-39.8%
G4 IND-MSY-29.8%

Load Factor caps
DL IND-MSP-62.3%
DL IND-ATL-54.5%
DL IND-LGA-42.0%
DL IND-DTW-41.3%

F9 IND-LAS-90.0%
F9 IND-MCO-87.1%
F9 IND-DEN-83.7%

WN IND-SRQ-96.0%
WN IND-LAS-93.2%
WN IND-RSW-93.2%
WN IND-PHX-92.6%
WN IND-DEN-89.8%
WN IND-MCO-89.4%
WN IND-DAL-89.0%
WN IND-TPA-88.7%
WN IND-ATL-88.7%
WN IND-HOU-82.3%
WN IND-FLL-80.8%
WN IND-BWI-71.7%
WN IND-AUS-65.3%

NK IND-TPA-94.4%
NK IND-RSW-94.1%
NK IND-LAS-92.0%
NK IND-MCO-91.2%
NK IND-FLL-86.2%

UA IND-RSW-90.0%
UA IND-DEN-84.6%
UA IND-IAH-84.6%
UA IND-IAD-83.8%
UA IND-EWR-78.3%

IND-SRQ 96 percent loads is pretty good maybe it will go double daily

SRQ was only Sat only in March, but it shows why they quickly went to year-round (except for September) and daily.

Next March they'll probably run SRQ 2x daily and 3x on Saturday.

Saturdays to Florida are going to likely look something like this next March:
MCO 9x
RSW 8x
TPA 8x
FLL 4x
SRQ 3x
ECP 1x
MIA 1x

I flew from Indianapolis 3 times in March. Asheville, Dallas/Ft Worth, and Tampa at roughly $110, $90, and $95 roundtrip, respectively.

However, if you want to be particular about it and say March Madness is to credit for all of it - then the numbers are all skewed since March Madness is a one-off event. But go on.

stlgph wrote:

I flew from Indianapolis 3 times in March. Asheville, Dallas/Ft Worth, and Tampa at roughly $110, $90, and $95 roundtrip, respectively.

However, if you want to be particular about it and say March Madness is to credit for all of it - then the numbers are all skewed since March Madness is a one-off event. But go on.

Congrats on your purchases, though your info on purchase prices doesn't really mean jack without info on AP window, fare class, airline, e.t.c.

Close in fares were extremely high on most routes from IND in Mid-late March as discussed on this thread at the time, but close-in fares and load factors are always high from IND in March if you go back and look through previous numbers.

The March Madness event just supplanted some of the usual business travel that coincides with the Spring Break period, if it was at full capacity then that would be a different discussion.

Regardless the only really useful LF numbers IMO are the Florida routes, since IND-Florida was at "normal" capacity. Most other routes will see much more capacity next March, so this years data won't be applicable.

If my purchase prices don't mean jack without info on "AP window, fare class, etc," then neither does your consistent posting of load factors and trying to make a case of it.

And "what usual business travel" was being supplemented? Have you been living in a cave or a remote Pacific Island for the past year?

Come. on. man.

Come. on.

stlgph wrote:

If my purchase prices don't mean jack without info on "AP window, fare class, etc," then neither does your consistent posting of load factors and trying to make a case of it.

And "what usual business travel" was being supplemented? Have you been living in a cave or a remote Pacific Island for the past year?

Come. on. man.

Come. on.

huh?

LFs are industry metrics, I also post yield metrics, which are also airline industry metrics. "I bought a ticket at XYZ price" is not a true metric of performance.

I said supplanted not supplemented, you might want to restate your post.

Looks like quite a few diversions from the storms in Chicago. Looks like Qatar A350 and Aer Lingus A330 are the most notable so far.

AA updated their late August & September schedule:

- AA IND-LAX 2x starts back up August 17th, 2nd Flight of the day leaves IND at 9pm. 2x daily takes a break after Labor day for a month until October (subject to change). IND-AUS loaded as well, & IND-BOS back to its original 2x daily.
- AA has 38 departures scheduled for Fridays in September....that compares with only 21 for WN. Still down from the 48 scheduled in AA's October placeholder schedule, but progress.

For now it looks like SFO is returning on September 8th.

Bigger.....looks like DL is dropping IND-SEA until at least March 2022. IND-RDU is still on the schedule for September, even though many of the RDU non-hub is cut for September. But, good chance it keeps getting pushed back.

Midwestindy wrote:

For now it looks like SFO is returning on September 8th.

Bigger.....looks like DL is dropping IND-SEA until at least March 2022. IND-RDU is still on the schedule for September, even though many of the RDU non-hub is cut for September. But, good chance it keeps getting pushed back.

Looks like RDU-ORD and RDU-PHL are also still scheduled to resume in September (although restarts have been pushed back from 9/8 to 9/13). I see that RDU-BDL/CVG/BNA/BWI/JAX restarts got pushed back to 10/1. DL schedule still only looks mostly firm through 9/7. There's capacity jumps on routes like ORD-DTW/MSP on 9/8 (from all/mostly RJ to all mainline) that probably will not stick. Although some routes are showing capacity reductions extended through 10/31 (DTW-STL/IND/DCA showing pretty large capacity jumps on 11/1).

Capacity next month (July) will be 91% of 2019. September is 97%.

https://www.routesonline.com/routes-mag ... as-2021-1/

Midwestindy wrote:

Capacity next month (July) will be 91% of 2019. September is 97%.

https://www.routesonline.com/routes-mag ... as-2021-1/

ANC-SEA is the 3rd busiest route? What am I missing here - that's more than the population of Alaska flying to Seattle in half a year?

kindeham wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Capacity next month (July) will be 91% of 2019. September is 97%.

https://www.routesonline.com/routes-mag ... as-2021-1/

ANC-SEA is the 3rd busiest route? What am I missing here - that's more than the population of Alaska flying to Seattle in half a year?

Tourists, military personnel, energy industry on top of the regular citizens flying back and forth. Many airlines only run summer seasonal flights to cater to tourists but during the off time of year that’s may be the only route available to connect to the states to continue on a journey else where.

Delta28L wrote:

kindeham wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Capacity next month (July) will be 91% of 2019. September is 97%.

https://www.routesonline.com/routes-mag ... as-2021-1/

ANC-SEA is the 3rd busiest route? What am I missing here - that's more than the population of Alaska flying to Seattle in half a year?

Tourists, military personnel, energy industry on top of the regular citizens flying back and forth. Many airlines only run summer seasonal flights to cater to tourists but during the off time of year that’s may be the only route available to connect to the states to continue on a journey else where.

Yeah the amount of capacity on SEA-ANC normally surprises people from outside the western US.

AS essentially operates hourly service on the route almost exclusively on 737s.

May Pax numbers

YTD 2,247,588
May 620,997
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 0702104525

May YTD Passengers stats
CLE TBD
CMH TBD

RDU 2,476,017
MCI 2,268,741
IND 2,247,588
SAT 2,228,168
CVG 1,947,014
SNA 1,889,415
SJC 1,840,325
PIT 1,787,838


------------------

DL really seems to be struggling, with their updated August schedule they are only operating 3 more daily flights than UA....

AA absolutely taking the fight to DL now up to ~50 daily flights. Already added BOS/AUS/CUN/MCO, doubled LAX, and now doubled IND-LGA to 4x daily E175 this fall.

Midwestindy wrote:

AA absolutely taking the fight to DL now up to ~50 daily flights. Already added BOS/AUS/CUN/MCO, doubled LAX, and now doubled IND-LGA to 4x daily E175 this fall.

If DL ever wakes up and decides to defend IND and the large FF base, it is going to be a bloodbath. It could rival the old NW/TZ war. How have you been btw? Going on my first flight in over a year this coming weekend. Flying to the DC area for work. I think they have me flying to BWI but I don't remember for sure. I hope everyone is doing well.

Midwestindy wrote:

AA absolutely taking the fight to DL now up to ~50 daily flights. Already added BOS/AUS/CUN/MCO, doubled LAX, and now doubled IND-LGA to 4x daily E175 this fall.

Interestingly, The UA (placeholder) schedule for November has some interesting growth. EWR is 8x daily and SFO is 2x daily. NYC is going to be a bloodbath if these adds from AA and UA actually run.

At first I thought Delta was being smart in holding back capacity and being really prudent in their strategy. I'm no longer in that camp. The image that comes to mind is the little kid who can't yet shoot a basketball watching all the big kids running up and down the court during a pick-up game. Delta feels like they're all bought-in on watching right now, content with the status quo.

For the majority of destinations any business traveler needs out of Indianapolis, Delta has a non-stop or one-stop connection, including west via MSP or LAX. I certainly prefer, for intra-midwest travel, connecting over DTW or MSP vs ORD; Northeast is easy with DL as well via LGA or JFK. Obviously SLC missing is still a significant hole, but for years DL didn't operate SLC or did seasonally. AA looks to be, network wise, chasing the low yield still and I can't imagine they are doing too well on LAX running two daily right now, especially with the state of the pacific flying. I think it's a matter of time before they pull that second LAX flight. Why should Delta keep a flight in the MCO market from Indy, just because demand is high? You get what you pay for and I'd rather earn MqMs and fly to any city in Florida over ATL, which is quite efficient even post pandemic, versus deal with F9, NK, or WN- all three I consider completely unreliable and unpleasant forms of travel I simply can't deal with. I know I'm not alone. Sure, DL does need 'some' of those passengers to subsidize its own flights and maintain frequency...but is it worth throwing a 175 (AA) on MCO for?

Who else thinks we are going to see small, but probably mostly irrelevant, surges in Covid cases in the fall? I don't think the capacity will be there this fall to justify flying the pre-covid schedule and a lot of the low yield leisure must dry up at some point with the end to stimulus money and rising employment. Personally, given AA's customer reputation these days, I won't go near them. I can't think of anything worse than being at the mercy of AA in any operational situation, especially in ORD, MIA, CLT, or DFW. I hope the DL network recovers in Indy sooner than later, but given the current outlook for travel from now into next spring, I don't see their schedule offering as non-competitive.

flyboy80 wrote:

For the majority of destinations any business traveler needs out of Indianapolis, Delta has a non-stop or one-stop connection, including west via MSP or LAX. I certainly prefer, for intra-midwest travel, connecting over DTW or MSP vs ORD; Northeast is easy with DL as well via LGA or JFK. Obviously SLC missing is still a significant hole, but for years DL didn't operate SLC or did seasonally. AA looks to be, network wise, chasing the low yield still and I can't imagine they are doing too well on LAX running two daily right now, especially with the state of the pacific flying. I think it's a matter of time before they pull that second LAX flight. Why should Delta keep a flight in the MCO market from Indy, just because demand is high? You get what you pay for and I'd rather earn MqMs and fly to any city in Florida over ATL, which is quite efficient even post pandemic, versus deal with F9, NK, or WN- all three I consider completely unreliable and unpleasant forms of travel I simply can't deal with. I know I'm not alone. Sure, DL does need 'some' of those passengers to subsidize its own flights and maintain frequency...but is it worth throwing a 175 (AA) on MCO for?

Who else thinks we are going to see small, but probably mostly irrelevant, surges in Covid cases in the fall? I don't think the capacity will be there this fall to justify flying the pre-covid schedule and a lot of the low yield leisure must dry up at some point with the end to stimulus money and rising employment. Personally, given AA's customer reputation these days, I won't go near them. I can't think of anything worse than being at the mercy of AA in any operational situation, especially in ORD, MIA, CLT, or DFW. I hope the DL network recovers in Indy sooner than later, but given the current outlook for travel from now into next spring, I don't see their schedule offering as non-competitive.

Fair points. While DL is offering one-stops, based on some itineraries I've been considering, they're hideously long layovers. IND-SJC was $400 more one-way than UA or AA and involved either four hours in LAX or two stops, in MSP and LAX on the outbound and a five-hour layover on the return to catch the LAX-IND redeye. Obviously this is all anecdotal, and I 100% agree on the operational front, I just wish there was more uptick in DL's network restoration at least in summer when loads have been high, mostly, all around.

I'd also make the point that while AA may be chasing some lower yield traffic, say CUN or MCO, they're also making adds that are appealing for biz travelers, including BOS and LGA.

[/quote]

Fair points. While DL is offering one-stops, based on some itineraries I've been considering, they're hideously long layovers. IND-SJC was $400 more one-way than UA or AA and involved either four hours in LAX or two stops, in MSP and LAX on the outbound and a five-hour layover on the return to catch the LAX-IND redeye. Obviously this is all anecdotal, and I 100% agree on the operational front, I just wish there was more uptick in DL's network restoration at least in summer when loads have been high, mostly, all around.

I'd also make the point that while AA may be chasing some lower yield traffic, say CUN or MCO, they're also making adds that are appealing for biz travelers, including BOS and LGA.[/quote]

I'm very interested in how the fall plays out. DL's fleet strategy is one major reason why the network is what it is right now from Indy. That won't change in the fall I don't think, although I keep hearing this "continuous recovery" post summer talk. If that is indeed the case, and fall into next summer gains significant demand for business travelers, Delta will be hurt more by the simple fact they don't have equipment to drive frequency. For now, I'm sure their pilot training issue is also keeping some available fleet hours down from the network planning side of things.

The other big question is originating travel demographics... perhaps mid size markets gain some points subsidized by losses from the larger metros as workers relocate and commute to on-site team events.

If we don't get a big winter Covid surge, 2022 could be a record breaker. Amazing how much demand has shot up. It will be fun to compare June 2022 with June 2020.

flyboy80 wrote:

You get what you pay for and I'd rather earn MqMs and fly to any city in Florida over ATL, which is quite efficient even post pandemic, versus deal with F9, NK, or WN- all three I consider completely unreliable and unpleasant forms of travel I simply can't deal with. I know I'm not alone.

WN was a reliable airline prior to the 737 MAX grounding 2 years ago (at least in my opinion), but the situation has changed with the 737 MAX grounding, the COVID-19 pandemic, the cuts that WN had been making on some of its routes in the last 2 years, and the current staffing shortages that WN is currently facing.

WN also doesn't charge fees for carry-on bags or the 1st or 2nd checked bags, whereas F9 and NK charge fees for carry-on bags and the 1st and 2nd checked bags.

indygs wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

For the majority of destinations any business traveler needs out of Indianapolis, Delta has a non-stop or one-stop connection, including west via MSP or LAX. I certainly prefer, for intra-midwest travel, connecting over DTW or MSP vs ORD; Northeast is easy with DL as well via LGA or JFK. Obviously SLC missing is still a significant hole, but for years DL didn't operate SLC or did seasonally. AA looks to be, network wise, chasing the low yield still and I can't imagine they are doing too well on LAX running two daily right now, especially with the state of the pacific flying. I think it's a matter of time before they pull that second LAX flight. Why should Delta keep a flight in the MCO market from Indy, just because demand is high? You get what you pay for and I'd rather earn MqMs and fly to any city in Florida over ATL, which is quite efficient even post pandemic, versus deal with F9, NK, or WN- all three I consider completely unreliable and unpleasant forms of travel I simply can't deal with. I know I'm not alone. Sure, DL does need 'some' of those passengers to subsidize its own flights and maintain frequency...but is it worth throwing a 175 (AA) on MCO for?

Who else thinks we are going to see small, but probably mostly irrelevant, surges in Covid cases in the fall? I don't think the capacity will be there this fall to justify flying the pre-covid schedule and a lot of the low yield leisure must dry up at some point with the end to stimulus money and rising employment. Personally, given AA's customer reputation these days, I won't go near them. I can't think of anything worse than being at the mercy of AA in any operational situation, especially in ORD, MIA, CLT, or DFW. I hope the DL network recovers in Indy sooner than later, but given the current outlook for travel from now into next spring, I don't see their schedule offering as non-competitive.

Fair points. While DL is offering one-stops, based on some itineraries I've been considering, they're hideously long layovers. IND-SJC was $400 more one-way than UA or AA and involved either four hours in LAX or two stops, in MSP and LAX on the outbound and a five-hour layover on the return to catch the LAX-IND redeye. Obviously this is all anecdotal, and I 100% agree on the operational front, I just wish there was more uptick in DL's network restoration at least in summer when loads have been high, mostly, all around.

I'd also make the point that while AA may be chasing some lower yield traffic, say CUN or MCO, they're also making adds that are appealing for biz travelers, including BOS and LGA.

I'd also like to point out that offering one-stops to major destinations isn't a selling point, any of the network carriers can do that. As I've mentioned before, DL only serves 1 of the top 5 markets from IND, and only 2 of the top 9, and in both of those markets they are in they are no longer even true market leaders....

The key is non-stops and frequency, unless you are a tiny station.

Right now DL's placeholder for October only has 32 departures compared to AA's 49 departures...and yes I know it's a placeholder but it is a clear indication of where each carrier is headed in IND.

Midwestindy wrote:

indygs wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

For the majority of destinations any business traveler needs out of Indianapolis, Delta has a non-stop or one-stop connection, including west via MSP or LAX. I certainly prefer, for intra-midwest travel, connecting over DTW or MSP vs ORD; Northeast is easy with DL as well via LGA or JFK. Obviously SLC missing is still a significant hole, but for years DL didn't operate SLC or did seasonally. AA looks to be, network wise, chasing the low yield still and I can't imagine they are doing too well on LAX running two daily right now, especially with the state of the pacific flying. I think it's a matter of time before they pull that second LAX flight. Why should Delta keep a flight in the MCO market from Indy, just because demand is high? You get what you pay for and I'd rather earn MqMs and fly to any city in Florida over ATL, which is quite efficient even post pandemic, versus deal with F9, NK, or WN- all three I consider completely unreliable and unpleasant forms of travel I simply can't deal with. I know I'm not alone. Sure, DL does need 'some' of those passengers to subsidize its own flights and maintain frequency...but is it worth throwing a 175 (AA) on MCO for?

Who else thinks we are going to see small, but probably mostly irrelevant, surges in Covid cases in the fall? I don't think the capacity will be there this fall to justify flying the pre-covid schedule and a lot of the low yield leisure must dry up at some point with the end to stimulus money and rising employment. Personally, given AA's customer reputation these days, I won't go near them. I can't think of anything worse than being at the mercy of AA in any operational situation, especially in ORD, MIA, CLT, or DFW. I hope the DL network recovers in Indy sooner than later, but given the current outlook for travel from now into next spring, I don't see their schedule offering as non-competitive.

Fair points. While DL is offering one-stops, based on some itineraries I've been considering, they're hideously long layovers. IND-SJC was $400 more one-way than UA or AA and involved either four hours in LAX or two stops, in MSP and LAX on the outbound and a five-hour layover on the return to catch the LAX-IND redeye. Obviously this is all anecdotal, and I 100% agree on the operational front, I just wish there was more uptick in DL's network restoration at least in summer when loads have been high, mostly, all around.

I'd also make the point that while AA may be chasing some lower yield traffic, say CUN or MCO, they're also making adds that are appealing for biz travelers, including BOS and LGA.

I'd also like to point out that offering one-stops to major destinations isn't a selling point, any of the network carriers can do that. As I've mentioned before, DL only serves 1 of the top 5 markets from IND, and only 2 of the top 9, and in both of those markets they are in they are no longer even true market leaders....

The key is non-stops and frequency, unless you are a tiny station.

Right now DL's placeholder for October only has 32 departures compared to AA's 49 departures...and yes I know it's a placeholder but it is a clear indication of where each carrier is headed in IND.

The one stop connection certainly sells tickets to destinations that are not in the top ten are non-traditional legacy routes anyway, and really only make sense for the LCC or ULCC crowd. The next 20 cities on the list produce demand too..

Delta may lag AA in capacity, but I think they exceed AA in aircraft size and therefore a closer comparison when adjusting for seats.

Delta has only left a small number of markets in Indianapolis since the pandemic, so I don’t really see them as a retreating or giving AA market share.

With more flights to JFK, LGA, and BOS than any other Indianapolis carrier- along with obvious access to many vacation/business destinations through ATL, complemented by the V-formation between DTW and MSP, I really think Delta has the best ‘overall’ network position from Indy. That includes good connectivity through BOS and JFK for Europe.

Again I don’t use Southwest and their many destinations because I do not have interests where they fly save DEN and do not enjoy the WN experience.

I can certainly see Delta successful upping their game in Indy (x2 LAX, SEA, seasonal x2 SLC, add some mainline on BOS, LGA) if they’d prioritize it. But that’s just it, it’s not a priority and for the most part the coverage is well and competitive.

flyboy80 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

indygs wrote:

Fair points. While DL is offering one-stops, based on some itineraries I've been considering, they're hideously long layovers. IND-SJC was $400 more one-way than UA or AA and involved either four hours in LAX or two stops, in MSP and LAX on the outbound and a five-hour layover on the return to catch the LAX-IND redeye. Obviously this is all anecdotal, and I 100% agree on the operational front, I just wish there was more uptick in DL's network restoration at least in summer when loads have been high, mostly, all around.

I'd also make the point that while AA may be chasing some lower yield traffic, say CUN or MCO, they're also making adds that are appealing for biz travelers, including BOS and LGA.

I'd also like to point out that offering one-stops to major destinations isn't a selling point, any of the network carriers can do that. As I've mentioned before, DL only serves 1 of the top 5 markets from IND, and only 2 of the top 9, and in both of those markets they are in they are no longer even true market leaders....

The key is non-stops and frequency, unless you are a tiny station.

Right now DL's placeholder for October only has 32 departures compared to AA's 49 departures...and yes I know it's a placeholder but it is a clear indication of where each carrier is headed in IND.

The one stop connection certainly sells tickets to destinations that are not in the top ten are non-traditional legacy routes anyway, and really only make sense for the LCC or ULCC crowd. The next 20 cities on the list produce demand too..

Delta may lag AA in capacity, but I think they exceed AA in aircraft size and therefore a closer comparison when adjusting for seats.

Delta has only left a small number of markets in Indianapolis since the pandemic, so I don’t really see them as a retreating or giving AA market share.

With more flights to JFK, LGA, and BOS than any other Indianapolis carrier- along with obvious access to many vacation/business destinations through ATL, complemented by the V-formation between DTW and MSP, I really think Delta has the best ‘overall’ network position from Indy. That includes good connectivity through BOS and JFK for Europe.

Again I don’t use Southwest and their many destinations because I do not have interests where they fly save DEN and do not enjoy the WN experience.

I can certainly see Delta successful upping their game in Indy (x2 LAX, SEA, seasonal x2 SLC, add some mainline on BOS, LGA) if they’d prioritize it. But that’s just it, it’s not a priority and for the most part the coverage is well and competitive.

I don't really understand the points on one-stop connections, Why would you purposefully take a connection over a nonstop option? AA offers the same, if not more, one stop options from IND in addition to their superior number of nonstop options.

They've only "completely" retreated from CDG, RSW, MCO, & CUN. But they've kicked the tentative restart of RDU until November, SLC until Christmas, and SEA until March. So for the forseeable future they only are serving LA, ATL, NYC, MSP, DTW, & BOS. vs. AA's LA, DFW, AUS, NYC, CLT, ORD, MIA, PHX, PHL, BOS, DCA, and MCO.

Once AA's service boosts to LGA come, DL will only fly to BOS/LGA 1x per day more than AA, and they don't even fly to the far and away 2nd largest business market from IND, DCA. Not to mention CLT & ATL are pretty equal in terms of Southeast connectivity (IND-CLT/ATL are both 7x daily). Hardly an advantage to DL if you ask me.

I don't really see any indication that DL would Institute service boosts to those locations you listed, given their strategy recently. Through May of this year, DL was hardly larger than UA in IND in terms of market share.....not really competitive at all.

Midwestindy wrote:

flyboy80 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

I don't really see any indication that DL would Institute service boosts to those locations you listed, given their strategy recently. Through May of this year, DL was hardly larger than UA in IND in terms of market share.....not really competitive at all.

Delta was also blocking middle seats until May, so I have a feeling they'll pull way ahead now that they're back to running the 739 to Atlanta, all mainline to MSP some days, and a few mainline flights to DTW as well.