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qf789
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Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:26 pm

Welcome to Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

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Indy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:02 pm

Jumping the gun a bit with locking 2020? Not that anyone is upset to see 2020 end. That is still 13 hours away on the east coast and 16 on the west coast.
IND to RDU to OKC in 18 months. This is what my life has become.
 
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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:21 pm

Based on the last IND airport traffic report and some guessing it looks like we'll close out 2020 for IND at around 4.1 to 4.2 million passengers for the year, an incredible drop but not the worst of all worlds.

https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 1221163953

Puts us back a lot but I'm hoping for a 7-7.5 million passenger 2021.

WN starts Saturday IND-SRQ March 13th and daily except Saturday IND-AUS on March 11th, AA supposedly starts IND-BOS that month (I have my doubts).

Supposedly UA restarts IND-SFO February 1st but I feel like that will change when they finally update their schedule.

AS goes from 4x to 6x week on SEA in February and is supposedly back to daily in March (we'll see).. DL also supposedly restarts SEA that month as well (also a we'll see...)

Hope we get more service back as well as maybe something new from Allegiant, JetBlue to Boston and Florida (or maybe something more exotic) as well as most importantly, people to fill those flights back.
UA DL LH NW AA WN
"Gratia non tollit naturam, sed perficit"
 
COSPN
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:49 pm

This site is operated on UTC aviation Zulu time
 
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Boiler905
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:49 am

Biggest questions for IND in 2021:

1. What will G4 do next from IND?
2. Will WN continue to grow and/or return previously served routes such as SAN & OAK?
3. Will DL return CDG service and will any other new international routes be launched?

The ULCC/LCC at least are being aggressive in starting new routes so will be interesting to see if they try this approach in IND at all. (domestically at least)
Boiler Up
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:24 pm

Similar to 2018 & 2019, here is the 2020 IND year in review:

2020 Year in Review
*Denotes status unclear at the time of writing

Dropped airlines/routes:
Delta IND-CDG
Delta IND-CUN
Delta IND-MCO
Delta IND-RSW
*Delta IND-MEM (stopped and started during 2020)
*Alaska IND-SEA (stopped and started during 2020)
Frontier IND-RSW
Southwest IND-BOS
Southwest IND-OAK
Southwest IND-LAX
Southwest IND-SAN
Southwest IND-MCI
Southwest IND-MSY

New Routes:
Spirit IND-FLL
United IND-RSW
American IND-CUN
American IND-BOS
Southwest IND-STL
Southwest IND-SRQ (begins 2021)
*Contour (STL/BNA/PIT)

Misc. Airport News:
Enplanements fell to down 96% YOY in April 2020, but recovered to down 54% YOY by October
YX, WN, and briefly UA stored dozens of aircraft at IND during the early days of the pandemic
DHL built a new cold storage facility at IND, plans to add long-haul from IND
FedEx began construction on a new pilot facility
FedEx Indianapolis Hub serves as a transport hub for vaccines, and COVD-19 treatments and tests
IND plans to expand “RON” parking, allowing more aircraft to stay overnight
Cargolux announced a new cargo service to support the growing base of pharma & healthcare demand from IND: Stryker, Express Scripts, Novartis, J&J, Roche, Siemens, and Lilly have facilities bordering IND with a new 200 acre Life Science park currently under construction down the street from IND
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:54 pm

SumChristianus wrote:
Based on the last IND airport traffic report and some guessing it looks like we'll close out 2020 for IND at around 4.1 to 4.2 million passengers for the year, an incredible drop but not the worst of all worlds.

https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... 1221163953

Puts us back a lot but I'm hoping for a 7-7.5 million passenger 2021.

WN starts Saturday IND-SRQ March 13th and daily except Saturday IND-AUS on March 11th, AA supposedly starts IND-BOS that month (I have my doubts).

Supposedly UA restarts IND-SFO February 1st but I feel like that will change when they finally update their schedule.

AS goes from 4x to 6x week on SEA in February and is supposedly back to daily in March (we'll see).. DL also supposedly restarts SEA that month as well (also a we'll see...)

Hope we get more service back as well as maybe something new from Allegiant, JetBlue to Boston and Florida (or maybe something more exotic) as well as most importantly, people to fill those flights back.


UA IND-SFO will likely return before the summer, they ran it during the pandemic with a 54% LF in July

I'd doubt we'll see DL on IND-SEA in 2021, AS's capacity is definitely an inhibiting factor.

IND-BOS could be the most interesting route in 2021, in terms of what happens with AA & DL, or if B6 decides to pick it up

Glad to see a return to daily service on IND-AUS

Boiler905 wrote:
Biggest questions for IND in 2021:

1. What will G4 do next from IND?
2. Will WN continue to grow and/or return previously served routes such as SAN & OAK?
3. Will DL return CDG service and will any other new international routes be launched?

The ULCC/LCC at least are being aggressive in starting new routes so will be interesting to see if they try this approach in IND at all. (domestically at least)


I think G4 will add either LAX/SAN, SAT, ORF, DEN, ABQ, or a completely new dot on their route map (MIA)

I don't see WN growing much in IND given their track record in IND since 2017, with the exception of an IND-BNA add. WN is scheduled to be tiny this summer with only 23 daily departures during Mon-Fri.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:57 pm

I would like to see Allegiant add RNO.

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FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:47 pm

Boiler905 wrote:
Biggest questions for IND in 2021:

1. What will G4 do next from IND?
2. Will WN continue to grow and/or return previously served routes such as SAN & OAK?
3. Will DL return CDG service and will any other new international routes be launched?

The ULCC/LCC at least are being aggressive in starting new routes so will be interesting to see if they try this approach in IND at all. (domestically at least)

Is the Contour deal still on? Or has it been completely cancelled now?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:15 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Boiler905 wrote:
Biggest questions for IND in 2021:

1. What will G4 do next from IND?
2. Will WN continue to grow and/or return previously served routes such as SAN & OAK?
3. Will DL return CDG service and will any other new international routes be launched?

The ULCC/LCC at least are being aggressive in starting new routes so will be interesting to see if they try this approach in IND at all. (domestically at least)

Is the Contour deal still on? Or has it been completely cancelled now?


The revenue guarantee was approved, and is valid through June 2022:
Image
https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd830812f

The job commitment deal is "still in processing," likely meaning either Contour is still evaluating its future needs (or lack thereof) at IND, or the deal was tabled due to COVID:
https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd8308076

I still don't see a situation where Contour would operate IND-STL with WN 2x daily(300 seats) on the route, not to mention when/if WN adds IND-BNA
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Boiler905 wrote:
Biggest questions for IND in 2021:

1. What will G4 do next from IND?
2. Will WN continue to grow and/or return previously served routes such as SAN & OAK?
3. Will DL return CDG service and will any other new international routes be launched?

The ULCC/LCC at least are being aggressive in starting new routes so will be interesting to see if they try this approach in IND at all. (domestically at least)

Is the Contour deal still on? Or has it been completely cancelled now?


The revenue guarantee was approved, and is valid through June 2022:
Image
https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd830812f

The job commitment deal is "still in processing," likely meaning either Contour is still evaluating its future needs (or lack thereof) at IND, or the deal was tabled due to COVID:
https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd8308076

I still don't see a situation where Contour would operate IND-STL with WN 2x daily(300 seats) on the route, not to mention when/if WN adds IND-BNA

Agreed... Milwaukee is a far better option, IMO. Lots of overhead traffic, and avoids driving through Chicago, that can sometimes add several hours to the trip. Historically, BNA and MKE were the in the top 3-4 best performing CQ routes, supporting as many as 4-6 Saab’s a day, mostly Y, and that was with 3-5 Skyway or Midwest up against it, at times. PIT is kind of a no brainer, reasonable demand there over many years, with a stage length that makes driving for biz wasteful.

Frontier couldn’t make it work with a single CRJ a day, for pretty obvious reasons. Not sure WN will ever add BNA from Indy...

Of course, all of the above assumes some return of biz traffic, not much VFR on those routes.
 
ORDfan
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:29 pm

When did WN drop MDW-IND? Was it it pre-covid? Any chance that comes back in 2021?

Got a lot of friends and family down in Indy; it's an easy enough drive, but it was nice to have the option to use some points for a quick flight once and while.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 02, 2021 10:10 pm

ORDfan wrote:
When did WN drop MDW-IND? Was it it pre-covid? Any chance that comes back in 2021?

Got a lot of friends and family down in Indy; it's an easy enough drive, but it was nice to have the option to use some points for a quick flight once and while.


It was cut back in 2019, but they ran it during the pandemic for one month in July for some reason. Not looking likely it will return anytime soon, barring a change in WN strategy.

I actually live in the North Shore area of Chicagoland now, but I commute between Indy & Chi frequently so ORD-IND is my go-to routing. MDW-IND was a little risky with only one flight per day & bad flight timings.

It would be nice to see better air service with all the people moving between both cities, given the absence of rail service.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:30 pm

2021?

Florida. Florida. Florida.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:51 pm

ORDfan wrote:
When did WN drop MDW-IND? Was it it pre-covid? Any chance that comes back in 2021?

Got a lot of friends and family down in Indy; it's an easy enough drive, but it was nice to have the option to use some points for a quick flight once and while.


The PDEW of IND-MDW was only 13 passengers per day in 2019, and over 91% of the passengers on WN IND-MDW nonstop flights were connecting to other destinations in 2019.

WN has also made cuts on a few other shorter routes that had high percentage of connecting passengers prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the discontinuation of OKC-DAL nonstop service last year and the reduction of GRR-MDW from 3 daily nonstops down to 2 daily nonstops.

I can understand WN dropping routes such as IND-MDW and OKC-DAL since (a) both of these routes had high percentage of connecting passengers before being dropped by WN and (b) the majority of the passengers on WN's IND-MDW and OKC-DAL flights making connections to destinations that have 1-stop connecting options from IND and OKC through other cities on WN.
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:21 pm

I wonder what the PDEW will be like on STL-IND.

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COSPN
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:51 pm

AA and UA have ORD-IND well served.. it may be the most overserved route in the world with about 99.9 percent of passengers connecting to other destinations
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:52 pm

COSPN wrote:
AA and UA have ORD-IND well served.. it may be the most overserved route in the world with about 99.9 percent of passengers connecting to other destinations
I would say SAN-LAX would be up there also.

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SumChristianus
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:22 am

ibthebigd wrote:
COSPN wrote:
AA and UA have ORD-IND well served.. it may be the most overserved route in the world with about 99.9 percent of passengers connecting to other destinations
I would say SAN-LAX would be up there also.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


As of Q4 2018 (I know its a bit old, but its the latest I have on hand) the lowest O&D by % routes were:

AA:
PHL-ABE
CLT-FLO

UA:
IAD-MDT

(all were under 0.5% local across that quarter)

IND-ORD that quarter was 14% local for UA and 17% for AA, so nowhere near the bottom in terms of lowest O&D. However, each only carried around 70 local passengers a day on that market, so yep, still mostly connections.
UA DL LH NW AA WN
"Gratia non tollit naturam, sed perficit"
 
gdavis003
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:34 am

SumChristianus wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
COSPN wrote:
AA and UA have ORD-IND well served.. it may be the most overserved route in the world with about 99.9 percent of passengers connecting to other destinations
I would say SAN-LAX would be up there also.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


As of Q4 2018 (I know its a bit old, but its the latest I have on hand) the lowest O&D by % routes were:

AA:
PHL-ABE
CLT-FLO

UA:
IAD-MDT

(all were under 0.5% local across that quarter)

IND-ORD that quarter was 14% local for UA and 17% for AA, so nowhere near the bottom in terms of lowest O&D. However, each only carried around 70 local passengers a day on that market, so yep, still mostly connections.


I let out an audible laugh one day when I was waiting at my gate at Terminal F at PHL, and I saw that the flight next to me was going to Allentown. Was shocked that AA served that route, but I guess there’s enough people who don’t want to make the drive. Certainly easier to go through security and baggage claim and the like at ABE.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:40 am

COSPN wrote:
AA and UA have ORD-IND well served.. it may be the most overserved route in the world with about 99.9 percent of passengers connecting to other destinations


Was talking about IND-MDW not IND-ORD, but ORD-IND actually has decent O&D, Q4 2018 was 140 PDEW which is large for only 177 miles.

MDW-IND is tiny O&D wise because fares have quadrupled and service has been shrunk to nothing, back 10-20 years ago it was noticeably larger thanks to low fares.

ibthebigd wrote:
I wonder what the PDEW will be like on STL-IND.

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I'm thinking 30+ PDEW post-COVID, depending on how WN prices it. In 2019, average fares were $300 but only <10 PDEW, low fares (+ the new nonstops) will cause decent market stimulation.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:51 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
I wonder what the PDEW will be like on STL-IND.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I'm thinking 30+ PDEW post-COVID, depending on how WN prices it. In 2019, average fares were $300 but only <10 PDEW, low fares (+ the new nonstops) will cause decent market stimulation.


I agree with you point as the PDEW of DSM-STL on WN was 38 passengers/day in 2019 and the PDEW of MCI-STL on WN was 91 passengers/day in 2019, but STL-DSM/MCI are slightly longer routes than IND-STL.
 
jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:05 am

Midwestindy wrote:
COSPN wrote:
AA and UA have ORD-IND well served.. it may be the most overserved route in the world with about 99.9 percent of passengers connecting to other destinations


Was talking about IND-MDW not IND-ORD, but ORD-IND actually has decent O&D, Q4 2018 was 140 PDEW which is large for only 177 miles.

MDW-IND is tiny O&D wise because fares have quadrupled and service has been shrunk to nothing, back 10-20 years ago it was noticeably larger thanks to low fares.


One difference between IND-MDW and IND-ORD is that ORD is located on the western edge of Chicago whereas MDW is located closer to the Chicago Loop on the south side of Chicago. There are also probably more travelers in the western Chicago suburbs who would choose ORD-IND nonstop flights over driving or MDW-IND nonstop flights as those driving to Indianapolis from the western Chicago suburbs have to deal with traffic for more of the drive than someone driving to Indianapolis from the south side of the city of Chicago or from Northwest Indiana.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:06 am

jplatts wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
I wonder what the PDEW will be like on STL-IND.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


I'm thinking 30+ PDEW post-COVID, depending on how WN prices it. In 2019, average fares were $300 but only <10 PDEW, low fares (+ the new nonstops) will cause decent market stimulation.


I agree with you point as the PDEW of DSM-STL on WN was 38 passengers/day in 2019 and the PDEW of MCI-STL on WN was 91 passengers/day in 2019, but STL-DSM/MCI are slightly longer routes than IND-STL.

When WN had $99-$150 walk ups on MDW, the multiple flights were almost always full of biz travelers.
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:34 am

Indianapolis to Chicago is a pretty straight forward drive....the problem is other drivers. 80/90/94 is often a parking lot with people going to and from their cabins in Indiana and Michigan...then add locals doing their thing and cross-country travel passing through.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
ORDfan
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:39 am

Midwestindy wrote:
ORDfan wrote:
When did WN drop MDW-IND? Was it it pre-covid? Any chance that comes back in 2021?

Got a lot of friends and family down in Indy; it's an easy enough drive, but it was nice to have the option to use some points for a quick flight once and while.


It was cut back in 2019, but they ran it during the pandemic for one month in July for some reason. Not looking likely it will return anytime soon, barring a change in WN strategy.

I actually live in the North Shore area of Chicagoland now, but I commute between Indy & Chi frequently so ORD-IND is my go-to routing. MDW-IND was a little risky with only one flight per day & bad flight timings.

It would be nice to see better air service with all the people moving between both cities, given the absence of rail service.


Very interesting. I'm finding myself in a similar situation: living on the NW Side of Chicago now and looking at a busisness opportunity in the Indy area that would see me relocate semi-permanently for 6 or so months, and then frequent commuting after.

Indy has really progressed a lot in the past 12+ years since I went to college in Indiana. My friends love it and pre-covid the city really felt like it was thriving and growing - it had a great vibe to it. I had some family relocate to the Region and to Brownsburg, and I'd be lying if the thought hadn't crossed my mind given the current state of affairs in Illinois.

Pre-covid I needed direct access to overseas flights and will need that again if/when we return to normal. Would love to see DL bring back IND-CDG; would certainly help woo some folks who need international access.

stlgph wrote:
ndianapolis to Chicago is a pretty straight forward drive....the problem is other drivers. 80/90/94 is often a parking lot with people going to and from their cabins in Indiana and Michigan...then add locals doing their thing and cross-country travel passing through.


Totally agree: but that stretch on 294/94 right before 65 seems like its forever under construction and 90 was a disaster for a couple years too. So when I lived in the South Loop around 2015-2018 it was easy to hop on the orange line to MDW, especially when I had points to use.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:54 pm

The NCAA is relocating all of their "March Madness" 68 team tournament to the Indianapolis area from March-April.

Even if no fans are allowed, there will likely be a decent amount of charter traffic through IND for teams that aren't driving plus television & film crews
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Boiler905
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:33 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
Is the Contour deal still on? Or has it been completely cancelled now?


The revenue guarantee was approved, and is valid through June 2022:
Image
https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd830812f

The job commitment deal is "still in processing," likely meaning either Contour is still evaluating its future needs (or lack thereof) at IND, or the deal was tabled due to COVID:
https://secure.in.gov/apps/iedc/transpa ... 1dd8308076

I still don't see a situation where Contour would operate IND-STL with WN 2x daily(300 seats) on the route, not to mention when/if WN adds IND-BNA

Agreed... Milwaukee is a far better option, IMO. Lots of overhead traffic, and avoids driving through Chicago, that can sometimes add several hours to the trip. Historically, BNA and MKE were the in the top 3-4 best performing CQ routes, supporting as many as 4-6 Saab’s a day, mostly Y, and that was with 3-5 Skyway or Midwest up against it, at times. PIT is kind of a no brainer, reasonable demand there over many years, with a stage length that makes driving for biz wasteful.

Frontier couldn’t make it work with a single CRJ a day, for pretty obvious reasons. Not sure WN will ever add BNA from Indy...

Of course, all of the above assumes some return of biz traffic, not much VFR on those routes.


IMO, Contour's success comes down to their marketing & sales. Look at how big air markets are between similarly-distanced city pairs (BUR-OAK, PDX-SEA, MCI-STL, FLL/MIA-JAX, AUS-DAL, ATL-BNA, etc). The airline needs to come in and convince the passenger that they need this flight.

Agreed on needing return of business traffic for these Contour routes from IND, and therefore should incline Contour to offer these 2x daily most weekdays to allow for day-trips.
Boiler Up
 
NB1231
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:28 pm

Did SY start flying to IND? I’ve seen a few of their flights on FR24, and I don’t remember reading about their arrival to IND? Unless it’s some sort of lease deal or equipment relocation?
 
Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 08, 2021 11:58 pm

NB1231 wrote:
Did SY start flying to IND? I’ve seen a few of their flights on FR24, and I don’t remember reading about their arrival to IND? Unless it’s some sort of lease deal or equipment relocation?

Probably charters.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 09, 2021 7:50 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
NB1231 wrote:
Did SY start flying to IND? I’ve seen a few of their flights on FR24, and I don’t remember reading about their arrival to IND? Unless it’s some sort of lease deal or equipment relocation?

Probably charters.


Yeah, although I believe SY does mx at the Indy AAR facility
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 8:32 pm

WN will be running fewer flights from IND most days in February than AA, DL, & UA. Some days down to only 12 departures, AA has been the benefactor of WN's capacity actions in IND throughout the pandemic.
-----------
F9 is planning to use the A321 on IND-CUN when it is scheduled to restart in a little under a month
Still waiting to see if they maintain daily A321 on IND-MCO in March, or if they pull back
---------
NK updated its summer schedule:
IND-FLL 1x daily
IND-MCO 1x daily
IND-LAS 1x daily
IND-RSW 4x weekly
IND-TPA 3x weekly
----------
AS is remaining 4x weekly on IND-SEA through Mid-March
-----------
IND is MCI's largest unserved market by a mile, would love to see DL or AA pick it up

https://www.anna.aero/2021/01/13/kansas ... ndirectly/
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
Jshank83
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:15 am

Midwestindy wrote:
WN will be running fewer flights from IND most days in February than AA, DL, & UA. Some days down to only 12 departures, AA has been the benefactor of WN's capacity actions in IND throughout the pandemic.
-----------
F9 is planning to use the A321 on IND-CUN when it is scheduled to restart in a little under a month
Still waiting to see if they maintain daily A321 on IND-MCO in March, or if they pull back
---------
NK updated its summer schedule:
IND-FLL 1x daily
IND-MCO 1x daily
IND-LAS 1x daily
IND-RSW 4x weekly
IND-TPA 3x weekly
----------
AS is remaining 4x weekly on IND-SEA through Mid-March
-----------
IND is MCI's largest unserved market by a mile, would love to see DL or AA pick it up

https://www.anna.aero/2021/01/13/kansas ... ndirectly/


I’d be surprised if AA did. They have been drawing back at MCI. They cut both LAX and NYC (LGA) about 2 years ago.
 
ibthebigd
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:21 am

Would Contour start IND-MCI?

Do a MCI-IND-PIT or PIT-IND-MCI

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pmanni1
Posts: 363
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 12:33 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
Would Contour start IND-MCI?

Do a MCI-IND-PIT or PIT-IND-MCI

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Contour dropped PIT & IND so this would be highly unlikely.
 
jplatts
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:18 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
IND is MCI's largest unserved market by a mile, would love to see DL or AA pick it up

https://www.anna.aero/2021/01/13/kansas ... ndirectly/


I probably do not expect DL to add IND-MCI nonstop service with (a) DL having dropped MCI-CVG nonstop service, (b) DL suspending MCI-BOS/LAX/LGA/SEA nonstop service during the COVID-19 pandemic, (c) DL no longer serving any non-DL hub destinations nonstop from MCI, and (d) RDU being the only non-DL hub destination that DL serves nonstop from IND (even though DL had suspended IND-RDU nonstop service during the COVID-19 pandemic).

Jshank83 wrote:
I’d be surprised if AA did. They have been drawing back at MCI. They cut both LAX and NYC (LGA) about 2 years ago.


I agree that AA is unlikely to add IND-MCI nonstop service with (a) AA only having nonstop service to AA hubs from MCI and most of its other non-hub destinations and (b) most of AA's p2p flying being out of AUS, BOS, or SEA.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:21 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
Would Contour start IND-MCI?

Do a MCI-IND-PIT or PIT-IND-MCI

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


The IND-MCI market is too big for Contour IMO, in that I mean it is a market where if Contour were to be successful another airline would pick the route up.

Ideally if you are Contour you add a route where you get the market to yourself, IND-PIT, IND-MKE, IND-OMA, e.t.c

pmanni1 wrote:
ibthebigd wrote:
Would Contour start IND-MCI?

Do a MCI-IND-PIT or PIT-IND-MCI

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Contour dropped PIT & IND so this would be highly unlikely.


The service was not really dropped as it was never started, the status of Contour is unclear as the State of Indiana mentioned Contour last week in their list of companies committed to adding jobs in Indiana in the future.

https://calendar.in.gov/site/iedc/event ... -pandemic/
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
stlgph
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 14, 2021 5:58 pm

Why shy away from a market for being "too big?"

If Southwest has deemed a 737 as being too big for it to continue, and Delta, American or United aren't coming in and doing it anytime soon, why not?

That's of course if Contour comes in some point and time, anyway.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 9:47 pm

So far, out of the airlines that have updated March:

AS IND-SEA 4x weekly B739

F9 IND-MCO 5x weekly A321
F9 IND-LAS 4x weekly A321/A320
F9 IND-DEN 4x weekly A320
F9 IND-CUN 2x weekly A321

---------------------------
Went through the Q3 2020 O&D survey to get a feel for demand levels, some routes made me rethink what Indy should expect moving forward.

I'll preface by saying during Q3 IND enplanements were down between 60-65% YOY(or 35-40% of LY) depending on the month:

-IND-MCI is a bit concerning to me, it's significantly underperforming O&D wise compared to everywhere except JFK. Makes me now think this route would be a bad choice for a p2p route post-COVID. There is no real excuse why this route should be performing so much worse than every other market, unless there was a significant corporate(s) not flying at all at the time, which seems implausible given the degree of dropoff.

-IND-LAX will likely be restarted soon, during Q3 LAX alone was around ~100 PDEW, which is misleading because during the absence of n/s flights much of the demand has spread out into neighboring airports. The combined metro demand was nearly 200 PDEW, not even including the potential stimulation from a nonstop, it's a bit surprising it hasn't been restarted before now.

-I would expect to see more capacity in the IND-Florida market, the major markets were already approaching 100% of 2019, but some smaller Florida markets were already above 2019. I expect to see WN expand IND-SRQ for example

I'll compare some to Q3 2019 PDEW to give a feel of what I mean:

IND-MCO-312 PDEW + SFB(56 PDEW)=368 PDEW; 2019-521 PDEW (70.6% of LY)
IND-DEN-308 PDEW; 2019-530 PDEW (58.1% of LY)
IND-LAS-272 PDEW; 2019-420 PDEW (64.8% of LY)
IND-TPA-175 PDEW + PIE(94 PDEW)=269 PDEW; 2019-330 PDEW (81.5% of LY)
IND-LAX-99 PDEW + SNA(38 PDEW) + ONT(34 PDEW) + BUR(22 PDEW)=193 PDEW; 2019-518 PDEW (37.3% of LY)
IND-ATL-186 PDEW
IND-RSW-108 PDEW + PGD(56 PDEW)=164 PDEW; 2019-214 PDEW (76.6% of LY)
IND-PHX-158 PDEW; 2019-233 PDEW (67.8% of LY)
IND-DFW-113 PDEW+ DAL(42 PDEW)=155 PDEW
IND-IAH-52 PDEW + HOU(54 PDEW)=106 PDEW
IND-SFO 63 PDEW +SJC (22 PDEW) + OAK (17 PDEW)=102 PDEW; 2019-317 PDEW (32.2% of LY)
IND-FLL-89 PDEW; 2019-213 PDEW (41.8% of LY)
IND-SEA-86 PDEW; 2019-259 PDEW (33.2% of LY)
IND-BWI-79 PDEW
IND-SAN-67 PDEW; 2019-194 PDEW (34.5% of LY)
IND-EWR-64 PDEW; 2019-220 PDEW (29.1% of LY)
IND-CLT-62 PDEW
IND-SRQ-59 PDEW; 2019-44 PDEW (131.8% of LY)
IND-LGA-58 PDEW; 2019-287 PDEW (20.2% of LY)
IND-MIA-57 PDEW; 2019-104 PDEW (54.8% of LY)
IND-AUS-54 PDEW; 2019-156 PDEW (34.6% of LY)
IND-SLC-54 PDEW; 2019-105 PDEW (51.4% of LY)
IND-PHL-53 PDEW
IND-DCA-47 PDEW
IND-PDX-47 PDEW
IND-JAX-46 PDEW
IND-MSP-45 PDEW
IND-BOS-44 PDEW; 2019-302 PDEW (14.6% of LY)
IND-SMF-42 PDEW; 2019-64 PDEW (65.6% of LY)
IND-RDU-38 PDEW; 2019-125 PDEW (30.4% of LY)
IND-IAD-37 PDEW
IND-SAT-32 PDEW; 2019-90 PDEW (35.5% of LY)
IND-CHS-31 PDEW
IND-MYR-30 PDEW; 2019-33 PDEW (90.9% of LY)
IND-MSY-29 PDEW
IND-PBI-27 PDEW
IND-SAV-27 PDEW
IND-ORF-25 PDEW
IND-ORD-22 PDEW
IND-PNS-20 PDEW; 2019-20 PDEW (100% of LY)
IND-GEG-18 PDEW
IND-ECP-17 PDEW; 2019-18 PDEW (94.4% of LY)
IND-BZN-16 PDEW
IND-BDL-16 PDEW
IND-SJU-15 PDEW
IND-PWM-13 PDEW
IND-EYW-13 PDEW; 2019-12 PDEW (108% of LY)
IND-JAC-12 PDEW
IND-PVD-12 PDEW
IND-DTW-12 PDEW
IND-RIC-12 PDEW
IND-MCI-10 PDEW; 2019-123 PDEW (8.1% of LY)
IND-MHT-10 PDEW
IND-MEM-7 PDEW
IND-JFK-6 PDEW; 2019-118 PDEW (5.1% of LY)
IND-STL-4 PDEW
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:03 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
So far, out of the airlines that have updated March:

AS IND-SEA 4x weekly B739

F9 IND-MCO 5x weekly A321
F9 IND-LAS 4x weekly A321/A320
F9 IND-DEN 4x weekly A320
F9 IND-CUN 2x weekly A321


Still no BOS or LAX, although AA restarted very few routes from either so not surprising

AA up to 23 flights/day
- IND-PHX gets an A321
- IND-DFW back to pre-covid frequency

DL up to 15 flights/day

I'd expect WN to update March this week
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 430
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:42 pm

The Airport is teasing some sort of announcement tomorrow.

Any guesses?

My guess is Allegiant to Mexico

SAT has an announcement tomorrow also.

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Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:57 pm

IND announcement is “around” 7:30 AM EST (6:30 AM CST), thirty minutes after SAT’s announcement.

https://mobile.twitter.com/INDairport/s ... 6149997582
Leaving the forums. You may know where to find me.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:36 pm

ibthebigd wrote:
The Airport is teasing some sort of announcement tomorrow.

Any guesses?

My guess is Allegiant to Mexico

SAT has an announcement tomorrow also.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Probably SY
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
N292UX
Posts: 684
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:52 pm

Could easily be NK to maybe to JAX/LAS. Mexico isn't far fetched either.
 
AC4500
Posts: 655
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:59 pm

N292UX wrote:
Could easily be NK to maybe to JAX/LAS. Mexico isn't far fetched either.

Doesn't NK already fly LAS-IND? Also, SY's route announcements are on Tuesdays and Wednesdays IIRC.
Next:
UA: PDX-EWR-DCA
WN: BWI-STL-PDX
 
N292UX
Posts: 684
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:08 am

AC4500 wrote:
N292UX wrote:
Could easily be NK to maybe to JAX/LAS. Mexico isn't far fetched either.

Doesn't NK already fly LAS-IND? Also, SY's route announcements are on Tuesdays and Wednesdays IIRC.

Jokes on me, NK does fly that. JAX seems possible. SY running IND-SAT seems pretty random, but I have seen many crazier routes than that. I can say it's not B6. Not the time right now.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4313
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:23 am

I’ll just throw this out, not that I believe it. Contour to SAT?
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4313
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:54 am

Jshank83 wrote:
I’ll just throw this out, not that I believe it. Contour to SAT?


Nevermind. They said it isn’t this.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1900
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:55 am

I think it’s a real carrier lol.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4313
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: Indianapolis Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:01 am

SY would make sense off the IND tweet. Sun like emoji and horizon. But I thought they were focusing on cargo. But I really have no clue.
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