Aresxerexade wrote:

mind you. pre covid , both were running sna daily from yvr.

AC didn’t operate into SNA pre Covid…

Aresxerexade wrote:

mind you. pre covid , both were running sna daily from yvr.

Air Canada was for a short bit. Long time before covid started but it dropped and just westjet had YVR only.

brabb12 wrote:

Aresxerexade wrote:

mind you. pre covid , both were running sna daily from yvr.

Air Canada was for a short bit. Long time before covid started but it dropped and just westjet had YVR only.

YYC-SNA is technically a resumption. WS flew this route years ago, before canceling the flight and then exclusively serving SNA via YVR.

AC did fly to SNA, but only from YYZ. AC's YYZ-SNA service didn't last long, and while Air Canada had obtained relatively scarce John Wayne Airport slots for two additional daily flights, they never even bothered to attempt proposed services YVR-SNA and/or YYC-SNA. Interesting that only now, several years later, AC finally seems serious about giving YVR-SNA a try. Hopefully SNA does better for them this time around!

WS is playing with its summer schedule, specifically July 2022. YYC-DEN seems to go 6xweekly 134567, CUN goes daily and PVR goes 5xweek 23567. YVR-YXT decreases to 2xdaily. Obviously subject to a lot of change and pretty minor but still.

New S22 TATL routes on 7M8:

YYZEDI .2.4.6. eff. 02JUN22
YYZGLA 1.3.5.7 eff. 20MAY22

Nice! Will YHZ-GLA get the chop given a huge number of pax on that were connecting? I am not so sure all this extra Canadian capacity will survive tbh.

by738 wrote:

Nice! Will YHZ-GLA get the chop given a huge number of pax on that were connecting? I am not so sure all this extra Canadian capacity will survive tbh.

So far it’s still scheduled for next summer, subject to change of course….

by738 wrote:

Nice! Will YHZ-GLA get the chop given a huge number of pax on that were connecting? I am not so sure all this extra Canadian capacity will survive tbh.

By Spring 2022, WestJet will offer service to two Scottish destinations with service from Toronto to Edinburgh and Glasgow and the resumption of flights between Halifax and Glasgow.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/- ... 01689.html

These are all on the MAX. I wonder what the 4 787's will do then...

IceCream wrote:

These are all on the MAX. I wonder what the 4 787's will do then...

Oh they now have six in possession. Latest one was delivered Jun 2020.

One can only wonder . It will be a surprise nonetheless when we do find out.

346fetish wrote:

New S22 TATL routes on 7M8:

YYZEDI .2.4.6. eff. 02JUN22
YYZGLA 1.3.5.7 eff. 20MAY22

Press release confirmation:

https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/news/2021 ... cotland-fr

by738 wrote:

Nice! Will YHZ-GLA get the chop given a huge number of pax on that were connecting? I am not so sure all this extra Canadian capacity will survive tbh.

I imagine the YHZ-GLA will largely rely on feed from YOW, YUL & YYT. I assume the YUL-YHZ and YOW-YHZ routes will resume by next spring on WS.

WS7M8 wrote:

Aresxerexade wrote:

You are probably more accurate. I think their network planners are fortifying their main yyc hub , with scarce slots for many european airports, it makes sense to begin new routes from their main widebody hub.

I respectfully disagree with WJ building up YYC as a TATL hub, at the expense of YYZ. There are close to 8 million Canadians living in Golden Horseshoe, which wraps nicely around YYZ, with links to literally every country in the world. You can make anything work from YYZ, especially to the obvious European summer destinations. YYC on the other hand requires a significant amount of connecting traffic - which does help WJ grow their ops their but also dilutes yields. The trend in the last 20 years in North American aviation has been away from the smaller hub cities.....with many former hubs on both sides of the border being trimmed. As a WJ fan, I am happy to see them growing ..... although a part of me thinks it is necessary that they claim their piece of the YYZ Intl market. I look for them to grow YYZ close behind YYC's wake (ie assuming AMS is a success and slots can be obtained, do service from both....repeat for FCO, CDG, DUB and elsewhere).

It seems you are on the right track of prediction. They launch EDI and GLA from YYZ

cirrusdragoon wrote:

IceCream wrote:

These are all on the MAX. I wonder what the 4 787's will do then...

Oh they now have six in possession. Latest one was delivered Jun 2020.

One can only wonder . It will be a surprise nonetheless when we do find out.

YVR/YYC/YYZ-LGW, YYC-DUB/CDG/FCO and possibly AMS if they get slots, also YYZ-BCN…..

cirrusdragoon wrote:

IceCream wrote:

These are all on the MAX. I wonder what the 4 787's will do then...

Oh they now have six in possession. Latest one was delivered Jun 2020.

One can only wonder . It will be a surprise nonetheless when we do find out.

yup! I was referring to the 4 that will be delivered

ahhhh good point hahah thanks for that

So I’m assuming Manchester might not be happening.

cirrusdragoon wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

Aresxerexade wrote:

You are probably more accurate. I think their network planners are fortifying their main yyc hub , with scarce slots for many european airports, it makes sense to begin new routes from their main widebody hub.

I respectfully disagree with WJ building up YYC as a TATL hub, at the expense of YYZ. There are close to 8 million Canadians living in Golden Horseshoe, which wraps nicely around YYZ, with links to literally every country in the world. You can make anything work from YYZ, especially to the obvious European summer destinations. YYC on the other hand requires a significant amount of connecting traffic - which does help WJ grow their ops their but also dilutes yields. The trend in the last 20 years in North American aviation has been away from the smaller hub cities.....with many former hubs on both sides of the border being trimmed. As a WJ fan, I am happy to see them growing ..... although a part of me thinks it is necessary that they claim their piece of the YYZ Intl market. I look for them to grow YYZ close behind YYC's wake (ie assuming AMS is a success and slots can be obtained, do service from both....repeat for FCO, CDG, DUB and elsewhere).

It seems you are on the right track of prediction. They launch EDI and GLA from YYZ[/quote]

Thanks for the praise. YYZ - EDI & GLA will definitely be a winner next summer, assuming there is some semblance of normalcy in this COVID world we live in. Heck, YYZ - any of the obvious Western European tourist destinations from May thru early October *should* be successful.

WestJet's problems with the 787s are threefold.

1. With their small fleet, where to originate them from between YYC / YYZ / YVR. I love WJ but I sincerely believe they are spread too thin in terms of hub buildup and capacity. They need to exercise the remaining 10 options soon to get their fleet to 20, which is a legitimate number, plus get in the pipeline for more B787s. If anything, they may be hurting themselves in terms of opportunity, as their hub feed could support more departures.

2. Where to send them to. As mentioned above, YYZ to most of the big Western European tourist destinations, from mid spring thru the early fall will be successful. LGW (although they'd love to get LHR - whichever London it is, I could see them doing double dailies), CDG, GLA, EDI, DUB, AMS (if they can get slots), BCN, FCO, toss up between LIS, MXP, MUC, FRA, BRU, MAN, with maybe a Scandinavian destination on the horizon as well. YYZ itself could easily support 10-12 daily B787 European departures from WJ in the high season.

3. What to do with the airplanes in the off season. Here is saying some combination of Southern hemisphere flying (AKL, SYD, MEL, whichever South American nation has a hot economy), some high volume vacation destinations (Hawaii, CUN, MBJ), limited year round European service like LGW, CDG, a business Asian destination or 3 (Tokyo? Seoul? HKG or mainland China?), perhaps an oddball but intriguing possibility like DXB, plus maintenance check downtime.

Really exciting times to be watching WestJet. I think if they are quick to mobilize their Euro network for the summer of 2022, get future options activated, plus join the DL / KLM / AF TATL JV that they are very well positioned for the future.

cirrusdragoon wrote:

So I’m assuming Manchester might not be happening.

I'm also curious. It seems to some effect like they used the YHZ (and YYT) B737 European flying initially as a testbed. I could see them trying YHZ MAN in S2022, as they were slated to try it in S2020. YHZ offers connections from basically the entire WJ network in the summer, and from the data they'd bring home from that, they'd know if they have a winner.

Also surprised to some extent that they announced YYZ EDI/GLA so early. WJ traditionally has held their cards close to their chest in the widebody game, as in not revealing destinations too early, as they know Air Canada has the widebody aircraft to make life painful for them. Perhaps in this post COVID booking environment, the sooner you announce something the better off you'll be. Plus with the preliminary bookings, they'll also get a feel for if there is the need to add any capacity from GLA 4x weekly / EDI 3x weekly.

WS7M8 wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

So I’m assuming Manchester might not be happening.

I'm also curious. It seems to some effect like they used the YHZ (and YYT) B737 European flying initially as a testbed. I could see them trying YHZ MAN in S2022, as they were slated to try it in S2020. YHZ offers connections from basically the entire WJ network in the summer, and from the data they'd bring home from that, they'd know if they have a winner.

Also surprised to some extent that they announced YYZ EDI/GLA so early. WJ traditionally has held their cards close to their chest in the widebody game, as in not revealing destinations too early, as they know Air Canada has the widebody aircraft to make life painful for them. Perhaps in this post COVID booking environment, the sooner you announce something the better off you'll be. Plus with the preliminary bookings, they'll also get a feel for if there is the need to add any capacity.

I was shocked to see this announced so soon as well. Looks like these flights are on the MAX though. I wonder what the other new routes will be (especially the 787 ones) and when they'll announce them. I am kind of surprised they didn't announce a YYZ-DUB flight today as well.

IceCream wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

So I’m assuming Manchester might not be happening.

I'm also curious. It seems to some effect like they used the YHZ (and YYT) B737 European flying initially as a testbed. I could see them trying YHZ MAN in S2022, as they were slated to try it in S2020. YHZ offers connections from basically the entire WJ network in the summer, and from the data they'd bring home from that, they'd know if they have a winner.

Also surprised to some extent that they announced YYZ EDI/GLA so early. WJ traditionally has held their cards close to their chest in the widebody game, as in not revealing destinations too early, as they know Air Canada has the widebody aircraft to make life painful for them. Perhaps in this post COVID booking environment, the sooner you announce something the better off you'll be. Plus with the preliminary bookings, they'll also get a feel for if there is the need to add any capacity.

I was shocked to see this announced so soon as well. Looks like these flights are on the MAX though. I wonder what the other new routes will be and when they'll announce them.

I too was curious. That newspaper article that someone linked to did not specify the aircraft type, and I didn't bother to poke around the WJ website.

Here's a few other European Max routes that they may be considering.

1. YUL - CDG -- the market from La Belle Province to Paris in the summer is limitless. Offhand I can think of at least 3 carriers doing the route (AC, TS, AF), all flying their biggest widebodies, and there doubtlessly have been others. Even though WJ has limited presence in QC, I'm guessing there is enough leftovers for them to fill a Max daily to Paris.

2. YQB - CDG -- see above, but only if they wanted to get really ambitious

3. YYZ - KEF -- IcelandAir is doing this route double daily in the high season, and AC jumped on it a couple years ago, around the time of Wow Air's demise. Iceland has become a hot destination, and fits perfectly in the Max's capabilities. Interestingly enough, IcelandAir at one point was flying B737 Max 8s KEF - YYZ.

4. YHZ - EDI -- logical continuation of their YHZ - UK presence

5. YHZ - AMS -- KLM did this years ago; not sure the logic behind who doles out slots at AMS, but perhaps whomever does so sees the value in adding a new destination.

6. YOW - LGW

WS7M8 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

I'm also curious. It seems to some effect like they used the YHZ (and YYT) B737 European flying initially as a testbed. I could see them trying YHZ MAN in S2022, as they were slated to try it in S2020. YHZ offers connections from basically the entire WJ network in the summer, and from the data they'd bring home from that, they'd know if they have a winner.

Also surprised to some extent that they announced YYZ EDI/GLA so early. WJ traditionally has held their cards close to their chest in the widebody game, as in not revealing destinations too early, as they know Air Canada has the widebody aircraft to make life painful for them. Perhaps in this post COVID booking environment, the sooner you announce something the better off you'll be. Plus with the preliminary bookings, they'll also get a feel for if there is the need to add any capacity.

I was shocked to see this announced so soon as well. Looks like these flights are on the MAX though. I wonder what the other new routes will be and when they'll announce them.

I too was curious. That newspaper article that someone linked to did not specify the aircraft type, and I didn't bother to poke around the WJ website.

Here's a few other European Max routes that they may be considering.

1. YUL - CDG -- the market from La Belle Province to Paris in the summer is limitless. Offhand I can think of at least 3 carriers doing the route (AC, TS, AF), all flying their biggest widebodies, and there doubtlessly have been others. Even though WJ has limited presence in QC, I'm guessing there is enough leftovers for them to fill a Max daily to Paris.

2. YQB - CDG -- see above, but only if they wanted to get really ambitious

3. YYZ - KEF -- IcelandAir is doing this route double daily in the high season, and AC jumped on it a couple years ago, around the time of Wow Air's demise. Iceland has become a hot destination, and fits perfectly in the Max's capabilities. Interestingly enough, IcelandAir at one point was flying B737 Max 8s KEF - YYZ.

4. YHZ - EDI -- logical continuation of their YHZ - UK presence

5. YHZ - AMS -- KLM did this years ago; not sure the logic behind who doles out slots at AMS, but perhaps whomever does so sees the value in adding a new destination.

6. YOW - LGW

Those are all pretty interesting predictions. The only one that doesn't seem realistic at all is AMS, mainly because it's so slot constricted that any slots WS gets will surely go to YYC and YYZ. However the rest have a decent possibility of happening in the next few years.

IceCream wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

I was shocked to see this announced so soon as well. Looks like these flights are on the MAX though. I wonder what the other new routes will be and when they'll announce them.

I too was curious. That newspaper article that someone linked to did not specify the aircraft type, and I didn't bother to poke around the WJ website.

Here's a few other European Max routes that they may be considering.

1. YUL - CDG -- the market from La Belle Province to Paris in the summer is limitless. Offhand I can think of at least 3 carriers doing the route (AC, TS, AF), all flying their biggest widebodies, and there doubtlessly have been others. Even though WJ has limited presence in QC, I'm guessing there is enough leftovers for them to fill a Max daily to Paris.

2. YQB - CDG -- see above, but only if they wanted to get really ambitious

3. YYZ - KEF -- IcelandAir is doing this route double daily in the high season, and AC jumped on it a couple years ago, around the time of Wow Air's demise. Iceland has become a hot destination, and fits perfectly in the Max's capabilities. Interestingly enough, IcelandAir at one point was flying B737 Max 8s KEF - YYZ.

4. YHZ - EDI -- logical continuation of their YHZ - UK presence

5. YHZ - AMS -- KLM did this years ago; not sure the logic behind who doles out slots at AMS, but perhaps whomever does so sees the value in adding a new destination.

6. YOW - LGW

Those are all pretty interesting predictions. The only one that doesn't seem realistic at all is AMS, mainly because it's so slot constricted that any slots WS gets will surely go to YYC and YYZ. However the rest have a decent possibility of happening in the next few years.

I was thinking the same way also.....but occasionally airport authorities play games with slots to allow new service. YYZ & YYC -the obvious originations points in the WestJet universe- both have flights, whereas YHZ doesn't.....so if they are seeing it to that effect, they may be amenable to letting WJ in from YHZ.

Breathe wrote:

346fetish wrote:

New S22 TATL routes on 7M8:

YYZEDI .2.4.6. eff. 02JUN22
YYZGLA 1.3.5.7 eff. 20MAY22

Press release confirmation:

https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/news/2021 ... cotland-fr

I do wonder if this means AC will be back on YYZ-GLA, as it’s been flown for quite a few years with Rouge 767s and post-covid only YYZ-EDI remains on a 737MAX.

I’d imagine , as they longer have ties to to Transat, they will try to fly that route themselves too.

nope, don’t see it. AC will not be back at GLA. Even TS is a doubt now.

by738 wrote:

nope, don’t see it. AC will not be back at GLA. Even TS is a doubt now.

Transat is operating to GLA next summer , https://www.airtransat.com/en-CA/scotla ... ax=1-0-0-0

AC will definitely be back on YYZ-GLA. If it's with the MAX then I would imagine daily service.

WS7M8 wrote:

cirrusdragoon wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

I respectfully disagree with WJ building up YYC as a TATL hub, at the expense of YYZ. There are close to 8 million Canadians living in Golden Horseshoe, which wraps nicely around YYZ, with links to literally every country in the world. You can make anything work from YYZ, especially to the obvious European summer destinations. YYC on the other hand requires a significant amount of connecting traffic - which does help WJ grow their ops their but also dilutes yields. The trend in the last 20 years in North American aviation has been away from the smaller hub cities.....with many former hubs on both sides of the border being trimmed. As a WJ fan, I am happy to see them growing ..... although a part of me thinks it is necessary that they claim their piece of the YYZ Intl market. I look for them to grow YYZ close behind YYC's wake (ie assuming AMS is a success and slots can be obtained, do service from both....repeat for FCO, CDG, DUB and elsewhere).

It seems you are on the right track of prediction. They launch EDI and GLA from YYZ[/quote]

Thanks for the praise. YYZ - EDI & GLA will definitely be a winner next summer, assuming there is some semblance of normalcy in this COVID world we live in. Heck, YYZ - any of the obvious Western European tourist destinations from May thru early October *should* be successful.

WestJet's problems with the 787s are threefold.

1. With their small fleet, where to originate them from between YYC / YYZ / YVR. I love WJ but I sincerely believe they are spread too thin in terms of hub buildup and capacity. They need to exercise the remaining 10 options soon to get their fleet to 20, which is a legitimate number, plus get in the pipeline for more B787s. If anything, they may be hurting themselves in terms of opportunity, as their hub feed could support more departures.

2. Where to send them to. As mentioned above, YYZ to most of the big Western European tourist destinations, from mid spring thru the early fall will be successful. LGW (although they'd love to get LHR - whichever London it is, I could see them doing double dailies), CDG, GLA, EDI, DUB, AMS (if they can get slots), BCN, FCO, toss up between LIS, MXP, MUC, FRA, BRU, MAN, with maybe a Scandinavian destination on the horizon as well. YYZ itself could easily support 10-12 daily B787 European departures from WJ in the high season.

3. What to do with the airplanes in the off season. Here is saying some combination of Southern hemisphere flying (AKL, SYD, MEL, whichever South American nation has a hot economy), some high volume vacation destinations (Hawaii, CUN, MBJ), limited year round European service like LGW, CDG, a business Asian destination or 3 (Tokyo? Seoul? HKG or mainland China?), perhaps an oddball but intriguing possibility like DXB, plus maintenance check downtime.

Really exciting times to be watching WestJet. I think if they are quick to mobilize their Euro network for the summer of 2022, get future options activated, plus join the DL / KLM / AF TATL JV that they are very well positioned for the future.

Great analysis by the way

Here is where WJ (& AC) may get in to trouble with their YYZ - GLA / EDI service. Both are just under 2900 nm Great Circle route from YYZ, which in practice means the aircraft will probably fly close to 3000 nm when all is said and done, which is right at the limit of what a Max 8 can do. Heading eastwards they'll be able to take advantage of the jetstream so they should be ok. Westwards, if the winds are stiff, things will be a challenge, so they'll be filling up the tanks and may be doing fuel stops in somewhere like Goose Bay or YQB. Air Canada only has 169 seats on the Max; WJ has 174.

YUL-CDG, another route I'd mentioned, is 2991 nm, and YQB-CDG is 2866 nm, both of which are also at the Max 8's range limit.

The narrowbody aircraft that would be ideally suited to YYZ - UK or even Western Europe, or YUL- France (especially the secondary cities) would be the A321XLR, as it has another hour or so of fuel in it, which make the above routes doable. Things will get interesting in the next couple of years, as Air Transat has a bunch of them coming, which should make them an interesting foe in the Canada-Europe TATL marketplace.

WS7M8 wrote:

Here is where WJ (& AC) may get in to trouble with their YYZ - GLA / EDI service. Both are just under 2900 nm Great Circle route from YYZ, which in practice means the aircraft will probably fly close to 3000 nm when all is said and done, which is right at the limit of what a Max 8 can do. Heading eastwards they'll be able to take advantage of the jetstream so they should be ok. Westwards, if the winds are stiff, things will be a challenge, so they'll be filling up the tanks and may be doing fuel stops in somewhere like Goose Bay or YQB. Air Canada only has 169 seats on the Max; WJ has 174.

YUL-CDG, another route I'd mentioned, is 2991 nm, and YQB-CDG is 2866 nm, both of which are also at the Max 8's range limit.

The narrowbody aircraft that would be ideally suited to YYZ - UK or even Western Europe, or YUL- France (especially the secondary cities) would be the A321XLR, as it has another hour or so of fuel in it, which make the above routes doable. Things will get interesting in the next couple of years, as Air Transat has a bunch of them coming, which should make them an interesting foe in the Canada-Europe TATL marketplace.

Could you see a YYZ-DUB on the max? I'm surprised they haven't announced that as well. Also, what do you think the 4 new 787's coming will be doing in S22?

IceCream wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

Here is where WJ (& AC) may get in to trouble with their YYZ - GLA / EDI service. Both are just under 2900 nm Great Circle route from YYZ, which in practice means the aircraft will probably fly close to 3000 nm when all is said and done, which is right at the limit of what a Max 8 can do. Heading eastwards they'll be able to take advantage of the jetstream so they should be ok. Westwards, if the winds are stiff, things will be a challenge, so they'll be filling up the tanks and may be doing fuel stops in somewhere like Goose Bay or YQB. Air Canada only has 169 seats on the Max; WJ has 174.

YUL-CDG, another route I'd mentioned, is 2991 nm, and YQB-CDG is 2866 nm, both of which are also at the Max 8's range limit.

The narrowbody aircraft that would be ideally suited to YYZ - UK or even Western Europe, or YUL- France (especially the secondary cities) would be the A321XLR, as it has another hour or so of fuel in it, which make the above routes doable. Things will get interesting in the next couple of years, as Air Transat has a bunch of them coming, which should make them an interesting foe in the Canada-Europe TATL marketplace.

Could you see a YYZ-DUB on the max? I'm surprised they haven't announced that as well. Also, what do you think the 4 new 787's coming will be doing in S22?

Could easily see YYZ DUB on the Max....except I believe it was one of the routes that WJ had slated for B787 service in the summer of 2020 (if I am not mistaken - I know for sure they were going to do YYC DUB and possibly YYZ DUB - please correct me if I am wrong). The distance is ~2849 nm Great Circle route, so 2900+ nm in reality, and also right at the B737 Max 8's range.

As for the remaining 4 B787s....that is what a lot of us WJ watchers are waiting, ever so patiently for. There are so many different directions they could go with these airplanes....but a heavy dose of Canada to Western Europe seems about the most logical deployment of these airplanes for summer 2022, as these markets are well established and on the rebound, vs other more far flung places, who knows. The thing is, the B787's performance isn't optimized on European flying, especially from YYZ (YYC or YVR - definitely hit the 787's sweet spot). Which suggests to me they'll look for more far flung places. If they don't, they might as well have gone with used A330s.

WS7M8 wrote:

Here is where WJ (& AC) may get in to trouble with their YYZ - GLA / EDI service. Both are just under 2900 nm Great Circle route from YYZ, which in practice means the aircraft will probably fly close to 3000 nm when all is said and done, which is right at the limit of what a Max 8 can do. Heading eastwards they'll be able to take advantage of the jetstream so they should be ok. Westwards, if the winds are stiff, things will be a challenge, so they'll be filling up the tanks and may be doing fuel stops in somewhere like Goose Bay or YQB. Air Canada only has 169 seats on the Max; WJ has 174.

YUL-CDG, another route I'd mentioned, is 2991 nm, and YQB-CDG is 2866 nm, both of which are also at the Max 8's range limit.

Right at the limit? Absolutely not.

The Max-8 range is 3550nm. That's over 600nm (1h20min flying time) more than needed to operate YYZ-GLA/EDI.

Eastbound, with the tailwind, the plane won't even break a sweat. Westbound, the route should be doable even with up to 80kt headwinds. And let's not forget, the westbound Atlantic tracks are drawn up every day in order to avoid the headwinds as much as possible. So the routes to Scotland and back should work fine. Sure, there might be the odd day they block some seats on the westbound, but it's going to be the exception, not the norm.

WS7M8 wrote:

The narrowbody aircraft that would be ideally suited to YYZ - UK or even Western Europe, or YUL- France (especially the secondary cities) would be the A321XLR, as it has another hour or so of fuel in it, which make the above routes doable. Things will get interesting in the next couple of years, as Air Transat has a bunch of them coming, which should make them an interesting foe in the Canada-Europe TATL marketplace.

Firstly, the A321XLR isn't needed for any of those routes. They are all routes the A321LR can easily fly. The A321LR already has 450nm more range than the Max 8.

Secondly, TS doesn't operate any -XLRs nor do they have any -XLRs on order. They only have -LRs, which has plenty of range for what they need.
BTW, the first delivery of the -XLR is only planned for 2023.

A321LR range is 4,000nm. This is what Transat has.
A321XLR range is 4,700nm

The-XLR could be useful for airlines like LH, where the extra range to reach North America from FRA or MUC is needed.

With SFO and SNA already marked for re-starts this year, I'm curious if anyone has any idea if or when SAN might be announced? Another factor is that AC is already flying YVR-SAN and is due to start YYZ later this year. WS in the past has served YVR-SAN only as a summer seasonal route but AC's actions seem to indicate some level of return of winter traffic from Canada to San Diego.

Possibly WS will just put off any SAN routes until next Spring... Of course there's also a chance that AC might see an opportunity to re-enter YYC-SAN if there is no service by anyone else this winter?

bb

Does WS intend to return to flying YYC-JFK anytime soon?

WS7M8 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

Here is where WJ (& AC) may get in to trouble with their YYZ - GLA / EDI service. Both are just under 2900 nm Great Circle route from YYZ, which in practice means the aircraft will probably fly close to 3000 nm when all is said and done, which is right at the limit of what a Max 8 can do. Heading eastwards they'll be able to take advantage of the jetstream so they should be ok. Westwards, if the winds are stiff, things will be a challenge, so they'll be filling up the tanks and may be doing fuel stops in somewhere like Goose Bay or YQB. Air Canada only has 169 seats on the Max; WJ has 174.

YUL-CDG, another route I'd mentioned, is 2991 nm, and YQB-CDG is 2866 nm, both of which are also at the Max 8's range limit.

The narrowbody aircraft that would be ideally suited to YYZ - UK or even Western Europe, or YUL- France (especially the secondary cities) would be the A321XLR, as it has another hour or so of fuel in it, which make the above routes doable. Things will get interesting in the next couple of years, as Air Transat has a bunch of them coming, which should make them an interesting foe in the Canada-Europe TATL marketplace.

Could you see a YYZ-DUB on the max? I'm surprised they haven't announced that as well. Also, what do you think the 4 new 787's coming will be doing in S22?

Could easily see YYZ DUB on the Max....except I believe it was one of the routes that WJ had slated for B787 service in the summer of 2020 (if I am not mistaken - I know for sure they were going to do YYC DUB and possibly YYZ DUB - please correct me if I am wrong). The distance is ~2849 nm Great Circle route, so 2900+ nm in reality, and also right at the B737 Max 8's range.

As for the remaining 4 B787s....that is what a lot of us WJ watchers are waiting, ever so patiently for. There are so many different directions they could go with these airplanes....but a heavy dose of Canada to Western Europe seems about the most logical deployment of these airplanes for summer 2022, as these markets are well established and on the rebound, vs other more far flung places, who knows. The thing is, the B787's performance isn't optimized on European flying, especially from YYZ (YYC or YVR - definitely hit the 787's sweet spot). Which suggests to me they'll look for more far flung places. If they don't, they might as well have gone with used A330s.

Excellent analysis! Unfortunately WS only had YYZ-LGW/BCN for 2020 and didn't announce any new European routes from YYZ until now.

atal17 wrote:

Does WS intend to return to flying YYC-JFK anytime soon?

Right now it's slated to return in November. As for SAN, it returns from YYC on October 3

SANFan wrote:

With SFO and SNA already marked for re-starts this year, I'm curious if anyone has any idea if or when SAN might be announced? Another factor is that AC is already flying YVR-SAN and is due to start YYZ later this year. WS in the past has served YVR-SAN only as a summer seasonal route but AC's actions seem to indicate some level of return of winter traffic from Canada to San Diego.

Possibly WS will just put off any SAN routes until next Spring... Of course there's also a chance that AC might see an opportunity to re-enter YYC-SAN if there is no service by anyone else this winter?

bb

SAN starts Oct 3rd 2x a week…

Thanks guys (re: SAN's return.)

The problem is SAN airport (SAN.org) has not issued any sort of PR about WestJet's return in, apparently, just over a month. And they were all over JL's and AC's returns to town; the airport is
very involved in securing returning cx and routes -- as I'm sure is every airport in the world -- and in publicizing the return of service by those carriers!

It also seems to me that there was lots of publicity (inc WS-issued PRs) and chatter about the return of both SFO and SNA (also starting in October with the press release issued 8/23) but I have seen nothing regarding SAN. I find it interesting and disappointing that WS doesn't consider SAN important enough for a presser.

(My opinion only: perhaps SAN airport is returning the favor?)

Anyway, I will wait to see WS back in San Diego, hoping YYC will be re-starting next month.

bb

SANFan wrote:

Thanks guys (re: SAN's return.)

The problem is SAN airport (SAN.org) has not issued any sort of PR about WestJet's return in, apparently, just over a month. And they were all over JL's and AC's returns to town; the airport is
very involved in securing returning cx and routes -- as I'm sure is every airport in the world -- and in publicizing the return of service by those carriers!

It also seems to me that there was lots of publicity (inc WS-issued PRs) and chatter about the return of both SFO and SNA (also starting in October with the press release issued 8/23) but I have seen nothing regarding SAN. I find it interesting and disappointing that WS doesn't consider SAN important enough for a presser.

(My opinion only: perhaps SAN airport is returning the favor?)

Anyway, I will wait to see WS back in San Diego, hoping YYC will be re-starting next month.

bb

I am 99% confident WS will return, especially because they have already modified their schedules until mid-October so it's not like SAN was just copy-paste from October 2019.

Any Westjet US expansion?

b777900 wrote:

Any Westjet US expansion?

It was already announced SEA a few pages ago as well as SFO year round service

SANFan wrote:

Thanks guys (re: SAN's return.)

The problem is SAN airport (SAN.org) has not issued any sort of PR about WestJet's return in, apparently, just over a month. And they were all over JL's and AC's returns to town; the airport is
very involved in securing returning cx and routes -- as I'm sure is every airport in the world -- and in publicizing the return of service by those carriers!

It also seems to me that there was lots of publicity (inc WS-issued PRs) and chatter about the return of both SFO and SNA (also starting in October with the press release issued 8/23) but I have seen nothing regarding SAN. I find it interesting and disappointing that WS doesn't consider SAN important enough for a presser.

(My opinion only: perhaps SAN airport is returning the favor?)

Anyway, I will wait to see WS back in San Diego, hoping YYC will be re-starting next month.

bb

The publicity around SNA was because flights were being operated out of YYC, these were discontinued not long after they started flying into SNA. The publicity around SFO is because it was previously only seasonal summer service, it is not operating year round service.

There is lots of info regarding SAN return to the schedule as well as many other routes, MCO, IAH, BNA..etc…none of which have a press release for them returning.

Again, thanks for the feedback regarding the SAN re-start.

According to the skeds at WS.com, the SAN-YYC route appears to add frequencies pretty quickly, reaching 6x weekly on Nov 1 (daily except Thursdays) with YVR re-starting May 1, 2022 with 2x/week, and a 3rd freq added in early July! Very nice to see.

bb

SANFan wrote:

Again, thanks for the feedback regarding the SAN re-start.

According to the skeds at WS.com, the SAN-YYC route appears to add frequencies pretty quickly, reaching 6x weekly on Nov 1 (daily except Thursdays) with YVR re-starting May 1, 2022 with 2x/week, and a 3rd freq added in early July! Very nice to see.

bb

It's looking like it might be at 6x weekly even in S22!

Thenoflyzone wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

Here is where WJ (& AC) may get in to trouble with their YYZ - GLA / EDI service. Both are just under 2900 nm Great Circle route from YYZ, which in practice means the aircraft will probably fly close to 3000 nm when all is said and done, which is right at the limit of what a Max 8 can do. Heading eastwards they'll be able to take advantage of the jetstream so they should be ok. Westwards, if the winds are stiff, things will be a challenge, so they'll be filling up the tanks and may be doing fuel stops in somewhere like Goose Bay or YQB. Air Canada only has 169 seats on the Max; WJ has 174.

YUL-CDG, another route I'd mentioned, is 2991 nm, and YQB-CDG is 2866 nm, both of which are also at the Max 8's range limit.

Right at the limit? Absolutely not.

The Max-8 range is 3550nm. That's over 600nm (1h20min flying time) more than needed to operate YYZ-GLA/EDI.

Eastbound, with the tailwind, the plane won't even break a sweat. Westbound, the route should be doable even with up to 80kt headwinds. And let's not forget, the westbound Atlantic tracks are drawn up every day in order to avoid the headwinds as much as possible. So the routes to Scotland and back should work fine. Sure, there might be the odd day they block some seats on the westbound, but it's going to be the exception, not the norm.

WS7M8 wrote:

The narrowbody aircraft that would be ideally suited to YYZ - UK or even Western Europe, or YUL- France (especially the secondary cities) would be the A321XLR, as it has another hour or so of fuel in it, which make the above routes doable. Things will get interesting in the next couple of years, as Air Transat has a bunch of them coming, which should make them an interesting foe in the Canada-Europe TATL marketplace.

Firstly, the A321XLR isn't needed for any of those routes. They are all routes the A321LR can easily fly. The A321LR already has 450nm more range than the Max 8.

Secondly, TS doesn't operate any -XLRs nor do they have any -XLRs on order. They only have -LRs, which has plenty of range for what they need.
BTW, the first delivery of the -XLR is only planned for 2023.

A321LR range is 4,000nm. This is what Transat has.
A321XLR range is 4,700nm

The-XLR could be useful for airlines like LH, where the extra range to reach North America from FRA or MUC is needed.

You need the XLR's range in winter to properly serve Canada-Europe. TS doesn't need the XLR as they deploy those planes on SUN markets in winter. As for WS, I guess it would be a different story.

WS7M8 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

I too was curious. That newspaper article that someone linked to did not specify the aircraft type, and I didn't bother to poke around the WJ website.

Here's a few other European Max routes that they may be considering.

1. YUL - CDG -- the market from La Belle Province to Paris in the summer is limitless. Offhand I can think of at least 3 carriers doing the route (AC, TS, AF), all flying their biggest widebodies, and there doubtlessly have been others. Even though WJ has limited presence in QC, I'm guessing there is enough leftovers for them to fill a Max daily to Paris.

2. YQB - CDG -- see above, but only if they wanted to get really ambitious

3. YYZ - KEF -- IcelandAir is doing this route double daily in the high season, and AC jumped on it a couple years ago, around the time of Wow Air's demise. Iceland has become a hot destination, and fits perfectly in the Max's capabilities. Interestingly enough, IcelandAir at one point was flying B737 Max 8s KEF - YYZ.

4. YHZ - EDI -- logical continuation of their YHZ - UK presence

5. YHZ - AMS -- KLM did this years ago; not sure the logic behind who doles out slots at AMS, but perhaps whomever does so sees the value in adding a new destination.

6. YOW - LGW

Those are all pretty interesting predictions. The only one that doesn't seem realistic at all is AMS, mainly because it's so slot constricted that any slots WS gets will surely go to YYC and YYZ. However the rest have a decent possibility of happening in the next few years.

I was thinking the same way also.....but occasionally airport authorities play games with slots to allow new service. YYZ & YYC -the obvious originations points in the WestJet universe- both have flights, whereas YHZ doesn't.....so if they are seeing it to that effect, they may be amenable to letting WJ in from YHZ.

I don't see WS entering YUL/YQB-CDG routes anytime soon. While YULCDG is the second biggest transatlantic market in Canada, it's a very well served and competitive route. WS has also little to no feed in YUL. This summer they only served YYZ, YYC & YVR from YUL. Goes to show how YUL has no strategic significance for them.

WS7M8 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

WS7M8 wrote:

Here is where WJ (& AC) may get in to trouble with their YYZ - GLA / EDI service. Both are just under 2900 nm Great Circle route from YYZ, which in practice means the aircraft will probably fly close to 3000 nm when all is said and done, which is right at the limit of what a Max 8 can do. Heading eastwards they'll be able to take advantage of the jetstream so they should be ok. Westwards, if the winds are stiff, things will be a challenge, so they'll be filling up the tanks and may be doing fuel stops in somewhere like Goose Bay or YQB. Air Canada only has 169 seats on the Max; WJ has 174.

YUL-CDG, another route I'd mentioned, is 2991 nm, and YQB-CDG is 2866 nm, both of which are also at the Max 8's range limit.

The narrowbody aircraft that would be ideally suited to YYZ - UK or even Western Europe, or YUL- France (especially the secondary cities) would be the A321XLR, as it has another hour or so of fuel in it, which make the above routes doable. Things will get interesting in the next couple of years, as Air Transat has a bunch of them coming, which should make them an interesting foe in the Canada-Europe TATL marketplace.

Could you see a YYZ-DUB on the max? I'm surprised they haven't announced that as well. Also, what do you think the 4 new 787's coming will be doing in S22?

Could easily see YYZ DUB on the Max....except I believe it was one of the routes that WJ had slated for B787 service in the summer of 2020 (if I am not mistaken - I know for sure they were going to do YYC DUB and possibly YYZ DUB - please correct me if I am wrong). The distance is ~2849 nm Great Circle route, so 2900+ nm in reality, and also right at the B737 Max 8's range.

As for the remaining 4 B787s....that is what a lot of us WJ watchers are waiting, ever so patiently for. There are so many different directions they could go with these airplanes....but a heavy dose of Canada to Western Europe seems about the most logical deployment of these airplanes for summer 2022, as these markets are well established and on the rebound, vs other more far flung places, who knows. The thing is, the B787's performance isn't optimized on European flying, especially from YYZ (YYC or YVR - definitely hit the 787's sweet spot). Which suggests to me they'll look for more far flung places. If they don't, they might as well have gone with used A330s.

Fully agreed. You don't need brand new 787s for stuff like YYCDUB, YYZLGW, YYZBCN, ... To really squeeze the 789's performance you better use them north of 15 hours per day.

IceCream wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Again, thanks for the feedback regarding the SAN re-start.

According to the skeds at WS.com, the SAN-YYC route appears to add frequencies pretty quickly, reaching 6x weekly on Nov 1 (daily except Thursdays) with YVR re-starting May 1, 2022 with 2x/week, and a 3rd freq added in early July! Very nice to see.

bb

It's looking like it might be at 6x weekly even in S22!

Yep, it's been gradually moving closer to daily service over the years and it looks like it could get there pretty soon! YYC-SAN to me is a healthy year-round market and I wouldn't be completely surprised if it ended up as year-round daily at some point. Of course there's no competition on the route which helps WS. YVR is a different matter with AC op'ing year round with at least 2 daily (Jazz) flights; I hope WS will eventually try to operate that route year-round as well - the market is there.

bb

Not a single word about the operating aircraft type on their YYZ-GLA/EDI press release.

How convenient.

https://www.westjet.com/en-ca/news/2021 ... cotland-fr