Maybe a gas-and-go at MFR if it looks like it could open up in a reasonable time. Divert to RDD for the shortest bus ride if it's not going to open, but it's not an AA station (although OO is there). Back to origin (PHX) -if they have enough fuel- can be better than stranding the passengers at a third point. (LF was diverting OAK-CEC to MFR and bussing back, but that was getting too costly, so they go back to OAK now.) Going all the way back to PHX is harsh. Not so great returning to origin when the next flight is same time tomorrow and may be full, but they could trickle-protect through other hubs.
PHX-ACV is a 845 mile flight. They'd have to make a decision to return to PHX way too early in the process to make it worth going all the way back - a full CRJ-700 would be pushing it to the edge to get all the way up close to ACV, declare a divert and go back to PHX. MFR at 117 miles away or SMF at 207 miles away, both of which are online AA stations, would likely take the divert. Keep in mind too that the ground time on this flight is 3h30 minutes. If you can't get into ACV right away and decide to go to MFR, add 15-20 minutes flying time to get up to MFR and then 25-30 minutes to eventually make it back to ACV. A CR7 can be turned in 30 minutes, so you've got a decent window that if you still need to go into MFR, you'd have a good 90 minutes or so that you could wait on the ground up there and still get to ACV and still you have an on-time departure back to PHX.
30 minutes to turn a CR7? I guess times have changed; at AirCal, we used to turn 737-200 in 10 minutes when running late, full off, full on. 15 minutes for a 160/162 seat DC-9-80.
Anyway, the diversion will depend greatly on what reopening looks like for ACV. Again, RDD provides the shortest bus ride if they dump the passengers and deadhead back to PHX. It's an OO station, so they might do it aside from being a UAx station without working out an agreement with UA.
For a gas and go, RDD or MFR work if the plan is to return to ACV....possibly with enough fuel to continue back to PHX. Sucks, but I could see it happen. But it if gets in to ACV, the turn time isn't that huge a deal. Around here (ACV and CEC) if the flight departs at all in the same day, it's close enough to on-time.
Diversion to CEC (we seem to have less fog than ACV) won't happen as OO pulled out of CEC when they retired the EMB-120, saying the CR2 couldn't get in (hmm..really?) No real busses available here if they wanted to drop the load.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.
Home airport : CEC