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ryby92
Posts: 49
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I think we are starting to get answers to AA's future in NYC/LAX:

In NYC, domestically they are already bringing back LGA-BNA/CMH/CLE/IND/STL/RDU, JFK-AUS, & adding JFK-FLL, plus new international flying to TLV/ATH/BOG/PLS/SCL/MDE/CLO/UVF
In LAX, they are bringing(or already brought) back LAX-DEN/SLC/IAH/DRO, routes that traditionally did not perform well for AA, & adding LAX-CUN/GJT/MSO/FLL

The only question mark in my opinion at this point is how much domestic flying will be retained from JFK, given they are already bringing back significant chunks of LGA & LAX[
I think you are overestimating some of these moves. A lot of these adds are opportunistic adds into leisure/VFR markets where yields are not satisfactory in a normal environment vs a more business oriented route. Once traditional routes start generating higher yield, these routes will be gone. For example, they have the least competitive aircraft in the NYC-BOG market which is now overly saturated with capacity. And NYC-MDE/CLO have never worked for an US side carrier. JFK-PLS/VFR are both summer Sat-only route. There is a good chance they never even take off. FLL stuff are just retaliatory stuff that will go away after a while. Airlines are trying really hard at the moment to find routes with any semblance of demand. A lot of this is just educated guesses on where demand will be stronger in summer time.


Let us not be so dismissive of these developments. The old narrative espoused that AA should retreat and cut back to only 40 flights from JFK on a permanent basis needs to be discontinued.

Furthermore the so called business oriented routes won’t be back for a few years to come anyway. What must also be realized is that AA has a very strong traditional presence in every one of the cities identified so it’s not like they have to open a new station or destination. Quite frankly they should have operated these routes long ago and they probably gave up too easily in the past.

Suddenly the destinations to the Caribbean and South America look quite robust.

CUN
MDE
BOG
CLO
GRU
GIG
SCL
SJO
LIR
GEO
ANU
PUJ
MBJ
UVF
PLS
SXM loaded but no one notices
STT loaded but no one notices
AUA from La Guardia
NAS from La Guardia

I predict that more will be added as well in time to come

SKB resumption from last year
GCM resumption from last year
MEX


And if B6 decides to add MIA Caribbean to SDQ/PAP/SJU/KIN expect AA to do likewise from JFK but who am I to have a clue.

DL might be the one marginalized when it’s all done.
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 593
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:42 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
wenders825 wrote:
xJonNYC points out that JFK-BOG/MDE/CLO/SCL is incoming: https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1360 ... 16704?s=19


Looks like they are doubling down on South America and JFK in general. I bet they will reverse themselves on LAX-GRU.


Agreed, I’ve always said that I believe LAXGRU cancelation would be one of the first to be reversed. Huge local market and South America is seeing a much more quick recovery in travel.

The JFK-Colombia adds are especially interesting because it is on top of a 50% boost in Miami-Colombia flying, plus AA is using widebodies on MIABOG again and, for the first time, on MIAMDE. Curious to see if AA maybe adds another station or two in Colombia.


MIA - CLO will also receive the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, in the latest announcement of new routes, AA announced them
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG - UA
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 593
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:49 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Agreed, I’ve always said that I believe LAXGRU cancelation would be one of the first to be reversed. Huge local market and South America is seeing a much more quick recovery in travel.

The JFK-Colombia adds are especially interesting because it is on top of a 50% boost in Miami-Colombia flying, plus AA is using widebodies on MIABOG again and, for the first time, on MIAMDE. Curious to see if AA maybe adds another station or two in Colombia.


What’s left in Colombia that might be viable? BGA and ADZ are the only two I can think of.

What about adding more stations to DFW in addition to BOG-DFW? I could see MDE-DFW and CTG-DFW working.

Personally I love Colombia. I was there a few years ago. It’s a beautiful country. I felt very safe there.


Armenia, Colombia as well which Spirit has served now I think for almost 15 years.

CTG/MDE demand is overwhelmingly East Coast. I can’t imagine DFW service. Miami is probably around 70-75% of the market and New York is 20%.



Texas in the fifth state in the US with the most dispora of Colombians if there is demand for United and American has done well since IAH-BOG and DFW-BOG, a DFW-MDE route would not be so far-fetched
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG - UA
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1447
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:01 pm

ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I think we are starting to get answers to AA's future in NYC/LAX:

In NYC, domestically they are already bringing back LGA-BNA/CMH/CLE/IND/STL/RDU, JFK-AUS, & adding JFK-FLL, plus new international flying to TLV/ATH/BOG/PLS/SCL/MDE/CLO/UVF
In LAX, they are bringing(or already brought) back LAX-DEN/SLC/IAH/DRO, routes that traditionally did not perform well for AA, & adding LAX-CUN/GJT/MSO/FLL

The only question mark in my opinion at this point is how much domestic flying will be retained from JFK, given they are already bringing back significant chunks of LGA & LAX[
I think you are overestimating some of these moves. A lot of these adds are opportunistic adds into leisure/VFR markets where yields are not satisfactory in a normal environment vs a more business oriented route. Once traditional routes start generating higher yield, these routes will be gone. For example, they have the least competitive aircraft in the NYC-BOG market which is now overly saturated with capacity. And NYC-MDE/CLO have never worked for an US side carrier. JFK-PLS/VFR are both summer Sat-only route. There is a good chance they never even take off. FLL stuff are just retaliatory stuff that will go away after a while. Airlines are trying really hard at the moment to find routes with any semblance of demand. A lot of this is just educated guesses on where demand will be stronger in summer time.


Let us not be so dismissive of these developments. The old narrative espoused that AA should retreat and cut back to only 40 flights from JFK on a permanent basis needs to be discontinued.

Furthermore the so called business oriented routes won’t be back for a few years to come anyway. What must also be realized is that AA has a very strong traditional presence in every one of the cities identified so it’s not like they have to open a new station or destination. Quite frankly they should have operated these routes long ago and they probably gave up too easily in the past.

Suddenly the destinations to the Caribbean and South America look quite robust.

CUN
MDE
BOG
CLO
GRU
GIG
SCL
SJO
LIR
GEO
ANU
PUJ
MBJ
UVF
PLS
SXM loaded but no one notices
STT loaded but no one notices
AUA from La Guardia
NAS from La Guardia

I predict that more will be added as well in time to come

SKB resumption from last year
GCM resumption from last year
MEX


And if B6 decides to add MIA Caribbean to SDQ/PAP/SJU/KIN expect AA to do likewise from JFK but who am I to have a clue.

DL might be the one marginalized when it’s all done.

SKB and GCM are likely a ways off due to local COVID restrictions. AA is just going to places where tourists can go easily so anywhere that eases restrictions has a shot. I also think the chances of B6 expanding heavily into the Caribbean from MIA are overblown. We get this talk every time a carrier starts MIA flights. Look at the WN thread when they began MIA flights. SJU is the most likely. PAP has a chance due to strong local traffic. SDQ doesn’t make sense to me. It’s served only once daily from FLL where they have connecting feed. KIN makes less sense to me as FLL is the preferred airport for the KIN VFR market which they’d be targeting. If B6 had more success with their Cuba flying, I’d say maybe HAV might be possible. However, they tanked in Cuba.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4626
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:10 pm

ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I think we are starting to get answers to AA's future in NYC/LAX:

In NYC, domestically they are already bringing back LGA-BNA/CMH/CLE/IND/STL/RDU, JFK-AUS, & adding JFK-FLL, plus new international flying to TLV/ATH/BOG/PLS/SCL/MDE/CLO/UVF
In LAX, they are bringing(or already brought) back LAX-DEN/SLC/IAH/DRO, routes that traditionally did not perform well for AA, & adding LAX-CUN/GJT/MSO/FLL

The only question mark in my opinion at this point is how much domestic flying will be retained from JFK, given they are already bringing back significant chunks of LGA & LAX[
I think you are overestimating some of these moves. A lot of these adds are opportunistic adds into leisure/VFR markets where yields are not satisfactory in a normal environment vs a more business oriented route. Once traditional routes start generating higher yield, these routes will be gone. For example, they have the least competitive aircraft in the NYC-BOG market which is now overly saturated with capacity. And NYC-MDE/CLO have never worked for an US side carrier. JFK-PLS/VFR are both summer Sat-only route. There is a good chance they never even take off. FLL stuff are just retaliatory stuff that will go away after a while. Airlines are trying really hard at the moment to find routes with any semblance of demand. A lot of this is just educated guesses on where demand will be stronger in summer time.


Let us not be so dismissive of these developments. The old narrative espoused that AA should retreat and cut back to only 40 flights from JFK on a permanent basis needs to be discontinued.

Furthermore the so called business oriented routes won’t be back for a few years to come anyway. What must also be realized is that AA has a very strong traditional presence in every one of the cities identified so it’s not like they have to open a new station or destination. Quite frankly they should have operated these routes long ago and they probably gave up too easily in the past.

Suddenly the destinations to the Caribbean and South America look quite robust.

CUN
MDE
BOG
CLO
GRU
GIG
SCL
SJO
LIR
GEO
ANU
PUJ
MBJ
UVF
PLS
SXM loaded but no one notices
STT loaded but no one notices
AUA from La Guardia
NAS from La Guardia

I predict that more will be added as well in time to come

SKB resumption from last year
GCM resumption from last year
MEX


And if B6 decides to add MIA Caribbean to SDQ/PAP/SJU/KIN expect AA to do likewise from JFK but who am I to have a clue.

DL might be the one marginalized when it’s all done.


A major expansion of AA service out of the NY market isn't going to happen. American is adding some markets on the back of the B6 partnership, and the rest is international leisure markets where US citizens can travel to, which for now, remains fairly limited and focused on beach markets to the Caribbean and Mexico. An open question is whether the long hauls to Europe (and EZE/GRU) really do return by late Spring (as of now, they are loaded) but that remains quite uncertain.

JFK-FLL on AA metal is not going to stick around after it launches in April. There is no cruise traffic, the market is quite literally saturated, and we're heading into late Spring and Summer by then, when the deep desire to go to Florida will fade into Hurricane season, high humidity, and all that makes Florida a less than appealing place in summer except for those that have relocated or have second homes.

All that said, nice to see AA add stuff back and expand a bit. AA's focus in NYC has long been on business travel to cater to a still substantial FF base and corporate contracts it has, but business travel is a long (very) way from returning to 2019 levels (and probably won't for years) so everything for now is spitballing at best. AA has a stronger anchor in NY with B6 now, but the LGA network for AA has always been business focused and a lot of that is going to be very tough for years.

Don't think DL will be marginalized at all. DL has, even post-COVID, a strong network from NY (JFK/LGA) but its overall footprint will be smaller.
 
AMALH747430
Posts: 263
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:29 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:28 pm

ryby92 wrote:
And if B6 decides to add MIA Caribbean to SDQ/PAP/SJU/KIN expect AA to do likewise from JFK but who am I to have a clue.

DL might be the one marginalized when it’s all done.


...or DL may be the one laughing all the way to the bank. I don’t think that is guaranteed but this AA/B6/AS love triangle has the potential to end up like most love triangles do.

This AA/B6 tie up is going to get messy for this exact reason. AA and B6 are still competitors on international routes and premium transcons. B6 entering the TATL market from JFK, expanding in MIA and messing with the AA/AS (who will also be OW) agreement out west is going to be interesting to watch. While both the AA/B6 and AA/AS partnerships are handicapped due to no ATI immunity and revenue sharing, the AS partnership is much more clear cut. AS isn’t trying to compete on premium transcons or international routes. They’ll still run into domestic overlap issues, but not to the extent that AA/B6 are going to be real frienemies. Add to all this, B6 is now trying to build an LAX focus city where AA is teaming up with AS to preserve it’s FF base.

That being said, COVID has changed the rule book so I agree with the statement above “who am I to have a clue.” However, in the past, codesharing with a domestic carrier has not worked against an airline that expands and has its own feed. DL dumped AS because it couldn’t get the feed it needed from a codeshare to do what they needed to in SEA. AA tried a domestic codeshare with B6 before and it fizzled. This time around AA is using a domestic codeshare to go up against (arguably) one of the best run airlines in the world at their west coast TPAC hub. On the other side of the country, B6 is trying to become a whole different animal and is going to be as much of a thorn in AA’s side as a partner as they expand Mint to compete with American Flagship Service, expand their presence at AA’s cash cow MIA hub, and begin to compete with the AA/IAG JV across the Atlantic.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 6211
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:04 pm

I think we may get an AA (AA+B6) related press release soon, they didn't load these new JFK flights in this weekend & I recall Vasu Raja saying in January more details on the codeshare agreement would be released in the coming weeks

ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I think we are starting to get answers to AA's future in NYC/LAX:

In NYC, domestically they are already bringing back LGA-BNA/CMH/CLE/IND/STL/RDU, JFK-AUS, & adding JFK-FLL, plus new international flying to TLV/ATH/BOG/PLS/SCL/MDE/CLO/UVF
In LAX, they are bringing(or already brought) back LAX-DEN/SLC/IAH/DRO, routes that traditionally did not perform well for AA, & adding LAX-CUN/GJT/MSO/FLL

The only question mark in my opinion at this point is how much domestic flying will be retained from JFK, given they are already bringing back significant chunks of LGA & LAX[
I think you are overestimating some of these moves. A lot of these adds are opportunistic adds into leisure/VFR markets where yields are not satisfactory in a normal environment vs a more business oriented route. Once traditional routes start generating higher yield, these routes will be gone. For example, they have the least competitive aircraft in the NYC-BOG market which is now overly saturated with capacity. And NYC-MDE/CLO have never worked for an US side carrier. JFK-PLS/VFR are both summer Sat-only route. There is a good chance they never even take off. FLL stuff are just retaliatory stuff that will go away after a while. Airlines are trying really hard at the moment to find routes with any semblance of demand. A lot of this is just educated guesses on where demand will be stronger in summer time.


Let us not be so dismissive of these developments. The old narrative espoused that AA should retreat and cut back to only 40 flights from JFK on a permanent basis needs to be discontinued.

Furthermore the so called business oriented routes won’t be back for a few years to come anyway. What must also be realized is that AA has a very strong traditional presence in every one of the cities identified so it’s not like they have to open a new station or destination. Quite frankly they should have operated these routes long ago and they probably gave up too easily in the past.

Suddenly the destinations to the Caribbean and South America look quite robust.

CUN
MDE
BOG
CLO
GRU
GIG
SCL
SJO
LIR
GEO
ANU
PUJ
MBJ
UVF
PLS
SXM loaded but no one notices
STT loaded but no one notices
AUA from La Guardia
NAS from La Guardia

I predict that more will be added as well in time to come

SKB resumption from last year
GCM resumption from last year
MEX

And if B6 decides to add MIA Caribbean to SDQ/PAP/SJU/KIN expect AA to do likewise from JFK but who am I to have a clue.

DL might be the one marginalized when it’s all done.


Yep I agree, you can make a million excuses but there has been new route after new route, at some point people need to acknowledge they aren't trying to make JFK a 40 flight station. You haven't seen this level of additions from ORD, PHL, DCA, or LAX

Even though some flights are Saturday only, the fact that they are running them at all is meaningful. Demand to/from NYC is still weak, so if they are running these as Sat only now, I wouldn't be surprised if some are converted to higher frequency when demand is actually meaningful.

ContinentalEWR wrote:
A major expansion of AA service out of the NY market isn't going to happen. American is adding some markets on the back of the B6 partnership, and the rest is international leisure markets where US citizens can travel to, which for now, remains fairly limited and focused on beach markets to the Caribbean and Mexico. An open question is whether the long hauls to Europe (and EZE/GRU) really do return by late Spring (as of now, they are loaded) but that remains quite uncertain.

JFK-FLL on AA metal is not going to stick around after it launches in April. There is no cruise traffic, the market is quite literally saturated, and we're heading into late Spring and Summer by then, when the deep desire to go to Florida will fade into Hurricane season, high humidity, and all that makes Florida a less than appealing place in summer except for those that have relocated or have second homes.

All that said, nice to see AA add stuff back and expand a bit. AA's focus in NYC has long been on business travel to cater to a still substantial FF base and corporate contracts it has, but business travel is a long (very) way from returning to 2019 levels (and probably won't for years) so everything for now is spitballing at best. AA has a stronger anchor in NY with B6 now, but the LGA network for AA has always been business focused and a lot of that is going to be very tough for years.

Don't think DL will be marginalized at all. DL has, even post-COVID, a strong network from NY (JFK/LGA) but its overall footprint will be smaller.


I don't think the previous poster was arguing that AA was planning a major expansion in NYC (not that they even could due to slots restrictions)

We'll see what happens with JFK-FLL, but like last summer, I expect Florida will remain popular even during the summer for the next year or so, given people will be averse to traveling outside the US.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26645
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:40 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

What’s left in Colombia that might be viable? BGA and ADZ are the only two I can think of.

What about adding more stations to DFW in addition to BOG-DFW? I could see MDE-DFW and CTG-DFW working.

Personally I love Colombia. I was there a few years ago. It’s a beautiful country. I felt very safe there.


Armenia, Colombia as well which Spirit has served now I think for almost 15 years.

CTG/MDE demand is overwhelmingly East Coast. I can’t imagine DFW service. Miami is probably around 70-75% of the market and New York is 20%.



Texas in the fifth state in the US with the most dispora of Colombians if there is demand for United and American has done well since IAH-BOG and DFW-BOG, a DFW-MDE route would not be so far-fetched


If the demand was there there, United would have been flying IAHMDE ages ago. There is no demand, however. It’s not happening. Cali has more (but still barley any) demand from Texas and United couldn’t make that work.
a.
 
Zidane
Posts: 133
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:44 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:44 pm

DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14497
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:09 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Armenia, Colombia as well which Spirit has served now I think for almost 15 years.

CTG/MDE demand is overwhelmingly East Coast. I can’t imagine DFW service. Miami is probably around 70-75% of the market and New York is 20%.



Texas in the fifth state in the US with the most dispora of Colombians if there is demand for United and American has done well since IAH-BOG and DFW-BOG, a DFW-MDE route would not be so far-fetched


If the demand was there there, United would have been flying IAHMDE ages ago. There is no demand, however. It’s not happening. Cali has more (but still barley any) demand from Texas and United couldn’t make that work.


United needs to fly to Cali, Medellin, Cartagena, Barranquilla from EWR. New Jersey is home to communities with the largest percentage of Colombian Americans in the Country. Avianca used to serve BOG, BAQ, CLO, MDE etc.. from EWR with 757s in the '90s.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
RainerBoeing777
Posts: 593
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 3:43 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:10 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
RainerBoeing777 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

Armenia, Colombia as well which Spirit has served now I think for almost 15 years.

CTG/MDE demand is overwhelmingly East Coast. I can’t imagine DFW service. Miami is probably around 70-75% of the market and New York is 20%.



Texas in the fifth state in the US with the most dispora of Colombians if there is demand for United and American has done well since IAH-BOG and DFW-BOG, a DFW-MDE route would not be so far-fetched


If the demand was there there, United would have been flying IAHMDE ages ago. There is no demand, however. It’s not happening. Cali has more (but still barley any) demand from Texas and United couldn’t make that work.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1X72B8

When United had their JV planning with COPA and Avianca they had planned new routes to Colombia, and they had their eyes on IAH-MDE by UA and a third newspaper by AV in BOG-IAH

In addition, the number of connections that American Airlines handles from DFW can make a profitable flight with high load factors, in addition DFW-BOG was increased to Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner
CX - JL - LH - KE - KL - SQ - QR - QF - TG - UA
 
ryby92
Posts: 49
Joined: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:34 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:20 pm

Zidane wrote:
DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.


DL is relatively weak in the southern and eastern Caribbean with weak brand recognition from the Ex Caribbean end and among the VFR diaspora in comparison to AA.

DL couldn’t make POS GEO BGI work and barely flew to GND and ANU on Saturday only while AA has been operating multiple daily to same destinations pre-COVID-19 for more than 30 years even close to 40 years in some cases so not sure what’s the point here.

As it relates to UVF it is all about Sandals so as long as they are open and people are traveling they will do just fine.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6614
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
I think we may get an AA (AA+B6) related press release soon, they didn't load these new JFK flights in this weekend & I recall Vasu Raja saying in January more details on the codeshare agreement would be released in the coming weeks

ryby92 wrote:
tphuang wrote:


Let us not be so dismissive of these developments. The old narrative espoused that AA should retreat and cut back to only 40 flights from JFK on a permanent basis needs to be discontinued.

Furthermore the so called business oriented routes won’t be back for a few years to come anyway. What must also be realized is that AA has a very strong traditional presence in every one of the cities identified so it’s not like they have to open a new station or destination. Quite frankly they should have operated these routes long ago and they probably gave up too easily in the past.

Suddenly the destinations to the Caribbean and South America look quite robust.

CUN
MDE
BOG
CLO
GRU
GIG
SCL
SJO
LIR
GEO
ANU
PUJ
MBJ
UVF
PLS
SXM loaded but no one notices
STT loaded but no one notices
AUA from La Guardia
NAS from La Guardia

I predict that more will be added as well in time to come

SKB resumption from last year
GCM resumption from last year
MEX

And if B6 decides to add MIA Caribbean to SDQ/PAP/SJU/KIN expect AA to do likewise from JFK but who am I to have a clue.

DL might be the one marginalized when it’s all done.


Yep I agree, you can make a million excuses but there has been new route after new route, at some point people need to acknowledge they aren't trying to make JFK a 40 flight station. You haven't seen this level of additions from ORD, PHL, DCA, or LAX

Even though some flights are Saturday only, the fact that they are running them at all is meaningful. Demand to/from NYC is still weak, so if they are running these as Sat only now, I wouldn't be surprised if some are converted to higher frequency when demand is actually meaningful.

ContinentalEWR wrote:
A major expansion of AA service out of the NY market isn't going to happen. American is adding some markets on the back of the B6 partnership, and the rest is international leisure markets where US citizens can travel to, which for now, remains fairly limited and focused on beach markets to the Caribbean and Mexico. An open question is whether the long hauls to Europe (and EZE/GRU) really do return by late Spring (as of now, they are loaded) but that remains quite uncertain.

JFK-FLL on AA metal is not going to stick around after it launches in April. There is no cruise traffic, the market is quite literally saturated, and we're heading into late Spring and Summer by then, when the deep desire to go to Florida will fade into Hurricane season, high humidity, and all that makes Florida a less than appealing place in summer except for those that have relocated or have second homes.

All that said, nice to see AA add stuff back and expand a bit. AA's focus in NYC has long been on business travel to cater to a still substantial FF base and corporate contracts it has, but business travel is a long (very) way from returning to 2019 levels (and probably won't for years) so everything for now is spitballing at best. AA has a stronger anchor in NY with B6 now, but the LGA network for AA has always been business focused and a lot of that is going to be very tough for years.

Don't think DL will be marginalized at all. DL has, even post-COVID, a strong network from NY (JFK/LGA) but its overall footprint will be smaller.


I don't think the previous poster was arguing that AA was planning a major expansion in NYC (not that they even could due to slots restrictions)

We'll see what happens with JFK-FLL, but like last summer, I expect Florida will remain popular even during the summer for the next year or so, given people will be averse to traveling outside the US.


Aa ran a maximum of about 110 flights a day out of jfk pre covid
B6 about 180.
They need to sell 7 slots.

So they can fly a maximum of about 280 flights a day post covid. JetBlue was talking about expanding to up to 240 flights a day at jfk in their internal email. Even if they do more flights that don’t use prime slots and collect a few slots from international carriers that drop service, it’s hard to see how aa end up with more than 50 flights a day. That’s the number I have been stating on JetBlue thread for several days now.

JetBlue’s internal email is a pretty good indication of how large aa will be here. There are a lot of routes airlines try this summer that won’t make sense in 2023.

Nyc demand is so weak now that JetBlue and aa will have to work really hard just to utilize their slots when slot waiver goes away.

If a lot waiver goes away by q4, I really don’t know what aa and b6 will try to fly to utilize those lga slots.
 
timberwolf24
Posts: 543
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2001 8:38 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 6:57 pm

Wild rumor or any truth, that AA is looking at returning to MDW? I would love to see it happen, but just don't think it will.
Living in LA, ORD/MDW will always be home!
 
ABEguy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:09 pm

RainerBoeing777 wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

Looks like they are doubling down on South America and JFK in general. I bet they will reverse themselves on LAX-GRU.


Agreed, I’ve always said that I believe LAXGRU cancelation would be one of the first to be reversed. Huge local market and South America is seeing a much more quick recovery in travel.

The JFK-Colombia adds are especially interesting because it is on top of a 50% boost in Miami-Colombia flying, plus AA is using widebodies on MIABOG again and, for the first time, on MIAMDE. Curious to see if AA maybe adds another station or two in Colombia.


MIA - CLO will also receive the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, in the latest announcement of new routes, AA announced them


Also MIA - PAP sees a 787 in April and part of May.
 
deltairlines
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:15 pm

timberwolf24 wrote:
Wild rumor or any truth, that AA is looking at returning to MDW? I would love to see it happen, but just don't think it will.


I tend to doubt it.

A and B gates are pretty much all taken up, and I'm not sure if there's any taste to open up the C gates again.

O'Hare isn't that much further from the Loop than Midway in terms of driving, so there's not a huge advantage towards being in both. Traffic would be to hubs, so the only real benefit would be for passengers going to those markets; if those passengers are connecting, then you're cutting into yields by flowing that traffic. Likewise, with the hub-to-hub networks, you have significantly more flights from ORD to those hubs.

Even to a market like LGA, you'd still have the frequency advantage at ORD.

To be fair, the same market analysis would also apply to United in this case. Delta can make the MDW/ORD split work since they don't have a Chicago hub to begin with, have two hubs bookending the midwest in DTW and MSP that allow for easy out and backs, and ATL is a strong enough hub on its own and there's no risk of yield dilution with connecting passengers since their service to Chicago is limited to their hubs. As for Southwest, it remains to be seen how their move into ORD goes.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I think we may get an AA (AA+B6) related press release soon, they didn't load these new JFK flights in this weekend & I recall Vasu Raja saying in January more details on the codeshare agreement would be released in the coming weeks

ryby92 wrote:

Let us not be so dismissive of these developments. The old narrative espoused that AA should retreat and cut back to only 40 flights from JFK on a permanent basis needs to be discontinued.

Furthermore the so called business oriented routes won’t be back for a few years to come anyway. What must also be realized is that AA has a very strong traditional presence in every one of the cities identified so it’s not like they have to open a new station or destination. Quite frankly they should have operated these routes long ago and they probably gave up too easily in the past.

Suddenly the destinations to the Caribbean and South America look quite robust.

CUN
MDE
BOG
CLO
GRU
GIG
SCL
SJO
LIR
GEO
ANU
PUJ
MBJ
UVF
PLS
SXM loaded but no one notices
STT loaded but no one notices
AUA from La Guardia
NAS from La Guardia

I predict that more will be added as well in time to come

SKB resumption from last year
GCM resumption from last year
MEX

And if B6 decides to add MIA Caribbean to SDQ/PAP/SJU/KIN expect AA to do likewise from JFK but who am I to have a clue.

DL might be the one marginalized when it’s all done.


Yep I agree, you can make a million excuses but there has been new route after new route, at some point people need to acknowledge they aren't trying to make JFK a 40 flight station. You haven't seen this level of additions from ORD, PHL, DCA, or LAX

Even though some flights are Saturday only, the fact that they are running them at all is meaningful. Demand to/from NYC is still weak, so if they are running these as Sat only now, I wouldn't be surprised if some are converted to higher frequency when demand is actually meaningful.

ContinentalEWR wrote:
A major expansion of AA service out of the NY market isn't going to happen. American is adding some markets on the back of the B6 partnership, and the rest is international leisure markets where US citizens can travel to, which for now, remains fairly limited and focused on beach markets to the Caribbean and Mexico. An open question is whether the long hauls to Europe (and EZE/GRU) really do return by late Spring (as of now, they are loaded) but that remains quite uncertain.

JFK-FLL on AA metal is not going to stick around after it launches in April. There is no cruise traffic, the market is quite literally saturated, and we're heading into late Spring and Summer by then, when the deep desire to go to Florida will fade into Hurricane season, high humidity, and all that makes Florida a less than appealing place in summer except for those that have relocated or have second homes.

All that said, nice to see AA add stuff back and expand a bit. AA's focus in NYC has long been on business travel to cater to a still substantial FF base and corporate contracts it has, but business travel is a long (very) way from returning to 2019 levels (and probably won't for years) so everything for now is spitballing at best. AA has a stronger anchor in NY with B6 now, but the LGA network for AA has always been business focused and a lot of that is going to be very tough for years.

Don't think DL will be marginalized at all. DL has, even post-COVID, a strong network from NY (JFK/LGA) but its overall footprint will be smaller.


I don't think the previous poster was arguing that AA was planning a major expansion in NYC (not that they even could due to slots restrictions)

We'll see what happens with JFK-FLL, but like last summer, I expect Florida will remain popular even during the summer for the next year or so, given people will be averse to traveling outside the US.


Aa ran a maximum of about 110 flights a day out of jfk pre covid
B6 about 180.
They need to sell 7 slots.

So they can fly a maximum of about 280 flights a day post covid. JetBlue was talking about expanding to up to 240 flights a day at jfk in their internal email. Even if they do more flights that don’t use prime slots and collect a few slots from international carriers that drop service, it’s hard to see how aa end up with more than 50 flights a day. That’s the number I have been stating on JetBlue thread for several days now.


You also said it was likely AA wouldn't bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND, and all 3 were added back for April

It's really not at all difficult to see how AA gets over 50 departures at JFK, they are at nearly 30 in April. Even assuming they cut every RJ flight, cut FLL(which hasn't even started)/LAS/SAN/SAT, even not including the BOG/CLO/MDE/SCL adds or any future adds, that is still around 60 flights/day
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:43 pm

Same reason why AA flies to Hobby in addition to IAH. I know its a little different given that ORD is a hub while IAH isn't but..... Or maybe flying out of LGB and BUR and SNA with LAX?
 
glideslope900
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:47 pm

Does anyone think a B6/AA merger could be on the table?
 
asuflyer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:54 pm

Zidane wrote:
DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.


JFK-UVF and JFK-PLS are service resumptions AA has flown these in the past with 757s, although UVF has not really been consistent.

PLS, SXM and STT were some of the highest performing JFK routes in winters prior to COVID.

As for BOG, I know of many people in the diaspora who haven't been back to Colombia for years because fares were too high and can now afford it. AV used to operate JFK-MDE-CLO for years. It was ended a couple years ago when AV downsized their network outside of SAL and BOG. I wouldn't be surprised to see JFK-LIM and GYE follow especially with LA no longer being a partner. I also could see them re-adding some other VFR routes they served out of JFK like KIN, STI, SDQ and PAP however those are all dominated by B6's nowadays.
 
MAH4546
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 8:13 pm

asuflyer wrote:
Zidane wrote:
DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.


JFK-UVF and JFK-PLS are service resumptions AA has flown these in the past with 757s, although UVF has not really been consistent.

PLS, SXM and STT were some of the highest performing JFK routes in winters prior to COVID.

As for BOG, I know of many people in the diaspora who haven't been back to Colombia for years because fares were too high and can now afford it. AV used to operate JFK-MDE-CLO for years. It was ended a couple years ago when AV downsized their network outside of SAL and BOG. I wouldn't be surprised to see JFK-LIM and GYE follow especially with LA no longer being a partner. I also could see them re-adding some other VFR routes they served out of JFK like KIN, STI, SDQ and PAP however those are all dominated by B6's nowadays.


AV is still operating JFK-MDE-CLO.
a.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:06 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
I think we may get an AA (AA+B6) related press release soon, they didn't load these new JFK flights in this weekend & I recall Vasu Raja saying in January more details on the codeshare agreement would be released in the coming weeks



Yep I agree, you can make a million excuses but there has been new route after new route, at some point people need to acknowledge they aren't trying to make JFK a 40 flight station. You haven't seen this level of additions from ORD, PHL, DCA, or LAX

Even though some flights are Saturday only, the fact that they are running them at all is meaningful. Demand to/from NYC is still weak, so if they are running these as Sat only now, I wouldn't be surprised if some are converted to higher frequency when demand is actually meaningful.



I don't think the previous poster was arguing that AA was planning a major expansion in NYC (not that they even could due to slots restrictions)

We'll see what happens with JFK-FLL, but like last summer, I expect Florida will remain popular even during the summer for the next year or so, given people will be averse to traveling outside the US.


Aa ran a maximum of about 110 flights a day out of jfk pre covid
B6 about 180.
They need to sell 7 slots.

So they can fly a maximum of about 280 flights a day post covid. JetBlue was talking about expanding to up to 240 flights a day at jfk in their internal email. Even if they do more flights that don’t use prime slots and collect a few slots from international carriers that drop service, it’s hard to see how aa end up with more than 50 flights a day. That’s the number I have been stating on JetBlue thread for several days now.


You also said it was likely AA wouldn't bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND, and all 3 were added back for April

here is what I actually wrote. Please do not misrepresent me.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1455979&start=300#p22644409
"the big question is how long does AA sustain routes like ATL/DTW/MSP? These were definitely all loss-leaders out of LGA. And what about the midwest stuff like CLE/CMH/IND/CVG? They struggled in all these places against DL. Are these the kind of routes that AA wants to bring back post-COVID? I think AA is still looking to see how long it will take demand to come back to LGA. It certainly would not surprise me if AA decides to drop these routes."

The question isn't whether they will bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND. If they want to keep their LGA slots and don't want to give up their metal flying, they will fly these routes. Up to this point, the amount of growth at LGA that B6 is talking about is basically AA transferring all the slots that were flying mostly 44/50 seater routes. Among other routes, I think we will see what AA wants to sustain long term. That will depend on long term demand profile out of LGA. As I said, there are profound demand changes in NY area that we might not understand for several years. That will determine how much AA will decide it wants to fly out of LGA in a couple of years.

It's really not at all difficult to see how AA gets over 50 departures at JFK, they are at nearly 30 in April. Even assuming they cut every RJ flight, cut FLL(which hasn't even started)/LAS/SAN/SAT, even not including the BOG/CLO/MDE/SCL adds or any future adds, that is still around 60 flights/day


They will only get to above 50 flights a day if JetBlue is lying.

They are not getting back to 13x daily on a route like JFK-LAX when they will be coordinating schedules with JetBlue. Similarly, JetBlue is not getting back up to 11 to 12x daily on JFK-LAX. Same with JFK-SFO and other routes where they will both fly on. NYC demand is going to have some real changes. Both airlines can add as many routes as they want and advertise as many flights as they want, but they are not going to come close to utilizing their slots anytime soon.
 
asuflyer
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:53 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
asuflyer wrote:
Zidane wrote:
DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.


JFK-UVF and JFK-PLS are service resumptions AA has flown these in the past with 757s, although UVF has not really been consistent.

PLS, SXM and STT were some of the highest performing JFK routes in winters prior to COVID.

As for BOG, I know of many people in the diaspora who haven't been back to Colombia for years because fares were too high and can now afford it. AV used to operate JFK-MDE-CLO for years. It was ended a couple years ago when AV downsized their network outside of SAL and BOG. I wouldn't be surprised to see JFK-LIM and GYE follow especially with LA no longer being a partner. I also could see them re-adding some other VFR routes they served out of JFK like KIN, STI, SDQ and PAP however those are all dominated by B6's nowadays.


AV is still operating JFK-MDE-CLO.


My mistake, it was JFK-CTG-PEI that AV ended.
 
deltairlines
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:29 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
Same reason why AA flies to Hobby in addition to IAH. I know its a little different given that ORD is a hub while IAH isn't but..... Or maybe flying out of LGB and BUR and SNA with LAX?


Pretty much true on IAH and HOU for AA.

Los Angeles (and New York) are very different situations. There's constraints at both airports - slots in LGA/JFK, while at LAX you have a finite amount of gates and you have to deal with ramps on the south complex that are only one way to go both in and out.

The LA area is also so spread out and traffic is so bad that it makes some sense to decentralize. Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena can easily be 45 minutes to LAX on a good day - add in traffic and that can double. Same thing getting to Orange County and Ontario - they can be hikes to start with and then add in LA traffic and it's even worse. LGB might be the superfluous airport in the area since it's smack in the middle between LAX and SNA with all three being right off the 405, but there's enough demand there (especially as DFW-LGB comes online this summer)
 
jplatts
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
And what about the midwest stuff like CLE/CMH/IND/CVG? They struggled in all these places against DL. Are these the kind of routes that AA wants to bring back post-COVID? I think AA is still looking to see how long it will take demand to come back to LGA. It certainly would not surprise me if AA decides to drop these routes."

The question isn't whether they will bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND. If they want to keep their LGA slots and don't want to give up their metal flying, they will fly these routes.


B6 adding JFK-CLE nonstop service is a possibility with B6 already serving CLE.

On the other hand, it probably makes sense for AA to resume LGA-CMH/IND nonstop service once demand recovers with B6 not currently serving the CMH or IND markets.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:51 am

Zidane wrote:
DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.


One has to remember the market recognition + strength AA has in the Caribbean.

Pre-merger AA was strong due to the MIA hub, and upon closing SJU they either transferred every destination to MIA where it was feasible to do so (equipment-wise) or re-launched service when they received A319s/EOW 175s. Pre-merger US was also very strong to the Caribbean, and for a while served more destinations to the Caribbean nonstop from the US Mainland than any other US carrier. US even launched their own Caribbean alliance network for inter-island hops and marketed flights to the region under the "US Airways Caribbean" moniker.

I expected (as did most on this forum) that the combined carrier would drop a significant number of CLT-based Caribbean flying in favor of expanding MIA, on the contrary, CLT has gained a number of new Caribbean markets since the merger.

I am often surprised at DL's (and United's, to an extent) weakness in the market, although I think it might have to do with DL's hub locations (geographically speaking) rather than the airline's strategy as a whole. For example, CLT has service to CUR/BGI/POP, destinations that DL doesn't even serve. UA is just now starting service to BGI, and only serves POP/CUR from EWR. AA serves CLT-GND year-round, while DL serves it seasonally and UA doesn't even fly to GND.

AA also seems more willing to try routes in the region from their non-traditional gateways. For example, AA is flying UVF-CLT/MIA/PHL/DFW/ORD, while DL just does UVF-ATL and UA does UVF-EWR/ORD.
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Brickell305
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:15 am

USAirALB wrote:
Zidane wrote:
DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.


One has to remember the market recognition + strength AA has in the Caribbean.

Pre-merger AA was strong due to the MIA hub, and upon closing SJU they either transferred every destination to MIA where it was feasible to do so (equipment-wise) or re-launched service when they received A319s/EOW 175s. Pre-merger US was also very strong to the Caribbean, and for a while served more destinations to the Caribbean nonstop from the US Mainland than any other US carrier. US even launched their own Caribbean alliance network for inter-island hops and marketed flights to the region under the "US Airways Caribbean" moniker.

I expected (as did most on this forum) that the combined carrier would drop a significant number of CLT-based Caribbean flying in favor of expanding MIA, on the contrary, CLT has gained a number of new Caribbean markets since the merger.

I am often surprised at DL's (and United's, to an extent) weakness in the market, although I think it might have to do with DL's hub locations (geographically speaking) rather than the airline's strategy as a whole. For example, CLT has service to CUR/BGI/POP, destinations that DL doesn't even serve. UA is just now starting service to BGI, and only serves POP/CUR from EWR. AA serves CLT-GND year-round, while DL serves it seasonally and UA doesn't even fly to GND.

AA also seems more willing to try routes in the region from their non-traditional gateways. For example, AA is flying UVF-CLT/MIA/PHL/DFW/ORD, while DL just does UVF-ATL and UA does UVF-EWR/ORD.

Agreed. DL is mainly strong to only the largest of Caribbean leisure markets (MBJ, PUJ, AUA, etc.) although ATL-UVF also does pretty well for them. UA isn’t particularly strong in the Caribbean even in the largest markets. AA is strong everywhere in the Caribbean. Leisure and VFR, big and small destinations.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:25 am

Brickell305 wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Zidane wrote:
DL couldn't make a seasonal JFK-UVF work, good luck AA.


One has to remember the market recognition + strength AA has in the Caribbean.

Pre-merger AA was strong due to the MIA hub, and upon closing SJU they either transferred every destination to MIA where it was feasible to do so (equipment-wise) or re-launched service when they received A319s/EOW 175s. Pre-merger US was also very strong to the Caribbean, and for a while served more destinations to the Caribbean nonstop from the US Mainland than any other US carrier. US even launched their own Caribbean alliance network for inter-island hops and marketed flights to the region under the "US Airways Caribbean" moniker.

I expected (as did most on this forum) that the combined carrier would drop a significant number of CLT-based Caribbean flying in favor of expanding MIA, on the contrary, CLT has gained a number of new Caribbean markets since the merger.

I am often surprised at DL's (and United's, to an extent) weakness in the market, although I think it might have to do with DL's hub locations (geographically speaking) rather than the airline's strategy as a whole. For example, CLT has service to CUR/BGI/POP, destinations that DL doesn't even serve. UA is just now starting service to BGI, and only serves POP/CUR from EWR. AA serves CLT-GND year-round, while DL serves it seasonally and UA doesn't even fly to GND.

AA also seems more willing to try routes in the region from their non-traditional gateways. For example, AA is flying UVF-CLT/MIA/PHL/DFW/ORD, while DL just does UVF-ATL and UA does UVF-EWR/ORD.

Agreed. DL is mainly strong to only the largest of Caribbean leisure markets (MBJ, PUJ, AUA, etc.) although ATL-UVF also does pretty well for them. UA isn’t particularly strong in the Caribbean even in the largest markets. AA is strong everywhere in the Caribbean. Leisure and VFR, big and small destinations.

Even more fascinating to me is that from IAD, which to me would make the most sense as UA's Caribbean gateway (best geographic location, wealthy metro area), they only serve one Caribbean destination consistently year-round on mainline equipment: SJU.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 763ER, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:34 am

anyone know why AA hasn’t been able to bring back EWR-PHX but DL has been able to bring back routes like EWR-SLC and UA PHL-DEN?
 
JohanTally
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 4:24 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
anyone know why AA hasn’t been able to bring back EWR-PHX but DL has been able to bring back routes like EWR-SLC and UA PHL-DEN?


Right now AA is funneling most passengers on the eastern 2/3 of the country through CLT or DFW. JFK-PHX is the only NYC-PHX route scheduled for a long time.
 
dcajet
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:14 am

AA996/7 MIA-EZE-MIA has been upgauged to the 77W.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:24 pm

dcajet wrote:
AA996/7 MIA-EZE-MIA has been upgauged to the 77W.


The daily MIA-EZE-MIA route currently operating is AA 907/908, not 996/997 and yes, from today, it looks like it is going to be a 77W up from the 772. I believe Argentina is actually putting some limits on inbound arrivals (pax numbers) or something like that, as the DFW-EZE route is at some point being reduced to 3 x weekly for a time.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:27 pm

glideslope900 wrote:
Does anyone think a B6/AA merger could be on the table?


In the future, quite possibly yes, but not now as neither have the finances to pull something like that off, or absorb the integration costs, but if the industry recovers and balance sheets strengthen, this is absolutely a possibility.
 
ABEguy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:56 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
glideslope900 wrote:
Does anyone think a B6/AA merger could be on the table?


In the future, quite possibly yes, but not now as neither have the finances to pull something like that off, or absorb the integration costs, but if the industry recovers and balance sheets strengthen, this is absolutely a possibility.


Same probability as JetBlue merging with Delta. Or Alaska merging with JetBlue. Or spirit merging with United, etc etc.
 
airlineworker
Posts: 376
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:32 pm

I think one or two chapter 11's will happen before any merger. Chapter 11's seem to be followed shortly by mergers.
 
dcajet
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:26 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
dcajet wrote:
AA996/7 MIA-EZE-MIA has been upgauged to the 77W.


The daily MIA-EZE-MIA route currently operating is AA 907/908, not 996/997 and yes, from today, it looks like it is going to be a 77W up from the 772. I believe Argentina is actually putting some limits on inbound arrivals (pax numbers) or something like that, as the DFW-EZE route is at some point being reduced to 3 x weekly for a time.


My bad, of course it's 907/08 and It's been a 77W since Feb 11. Since Feb 1st Argentina requested international flights to the US, Mexico and Europe to be reduced by 30% and those to/from Brazil by 50%. Rest of LatAm and other destinations not affected. AA chose to reduce the DFW-EZE from daily to 3x w, thus leaving the MIA-EZE flight as a daily operation. AA907/08 is running at an average 95% occupancy, thus the upgauge. JFK-EZE is scheduled to resume in March.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4626
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:00 am

dcajet wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
dcajet wrote:
AA996/7 MIA-EZE-MIA has been upgauged to the 77W.


The daily MIA-EZE-MIA route currently operating is AA 907/908, not 996/997 and yes, from today, it looks like it is going to be a 77W up from the 772. I believe Argentina is actually putting some limits on inbound arrivals (pax numbers) or something like that, as the DFW-EZE route is at some point being reduced to 3 x weekly for a time.


My bad, of course it's 907/08 and It's been a 77W since Feb 11. Since Feb 1st Argentina requested international flights to the US, Mexico and Europe to be reduced by 30% and those to/from Brazil by 50%. Rest of LatAm and other destinations not affected. AA chose to reduce the DFW-EZE from daily to 3x w, thus leaving the MIA-EZE flight as a daily operation. AA907/08 is running at an average 95% occupancy, thus the upgauge. JFK-EZE is scheduled to resume in March.


Thank you for the detail. Much appreciated. Hopefully JFK-EZE will indeed resume in March.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:08 am

airlineworker wrote:
I think one or two chapter 11's will happen before any merger. Chapter 11's seem to be followed shortly by mergers.


Very true. That has been the case with a few of the recent mergers. DL and NW both filed Chapter 11 in 2005 and emerged in 2007. By then, their CEO's had swapped roles, and by 2008 they kicked off the US3 consolidation phase. AA filed in 2011, years later than it should have, and yet against the backdrop of a huge Boeing and Airbus order to overhaul the fleet. In 2013, it merged with US. US itself was on the brink of Chapter 7 liquidation in 2004 when HP agreed to merge.

I don't think CO filed in conjunction with the run-up to its merger with UA. UA was in Chapter 11 from 2002 to 2006 but CO was not in great financial shape by the time the merger with UA was announced in 2010.

Fast forward to now, it seems the most likely candidates for a Chapter 11 filing in the near term are AA, UA, and B6.
 
deltairlines
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:29 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
anyone know why AA hasn’t been able to bring back EWR-PHX but DL has been able to bring back routes like EWR-SLC and UA PHL-DEN?


Nearly anything that can be reached over PHX can be reached over DFW. It'll be even more in the next few months as AA launches more West Coast cities from DFW.
 
chonetsao
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:53 am

It does appear AA and Etihad had repaired their relationship. AA member earning miles flying on Etihad was revised on 16th December 2020 and now almost all Etihad revenue class can earn AA miles. It happened after AA ended relationship with Gulf Air and repaired relationship with Qatar. I wonder if there would be more codeshare between AA and Etihad soon considering the sudden change of tunes between the two carriers.
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:18 pm

Based on JonNYC tweet, it seems like AA is looking to add SEA-HKG, which would be quite an interesting move.
 
AC4500
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
Based on JonNYC tweet, it seems like AA is looking to add SEA-HKG, which would be quite a shot against DL.

Wow, that's quite ambitious. I guess it could make sense with CX leaving the market for good. Are we talking daily/year-round, or a few times a week? I guess AA may have better luck getting feed from AS than DL did from their own network.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4626
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:44 pm

AC4500 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Based on JonNYC tweet, it seems like AA is looking to add SEA-HKG, which would be quite a shot against DL.

Wow, that's quite ambitious. I guess it could make sense with CX leaving the market for good. Are we talking daily/year-round, or a few times a week? I guess AA may have better luck getting feed from AS than DL did from their own network.


I've been thinking AA would go for SEA-HKG. With the AS feed and the right sized plane (guessing 787-9 or -8) it could work and likely replace LAX-HKG.
 
806535
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:51 pm

tphuang wrote:
Based on JonNYC tweet, it seems like AA is looking to add SEA-HKG, which would be quite an interesting move.


Trying to wrap my head around this one... CX announced they were exiting back in November when it was already long established AS was joining OW, to say it was conceivable at this point they could have benefited from AS feed. What competitive advantage does AA have over CX in that market that makes them think this could work?

Regardless, I'd have to imagine this would:
A) Be the first AA HKG route not to use the 77W
B) Eliminate the possibility in the short to medium term of AA brining back LAX-HKG
 
AC4500
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:58 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Based on JonNYC tweet, it seems like AA is looking to add SEA-HKG, which would be quite a shot against DL.

Wow, that's quite ambitious. I guess it could make sense with CX leaving the market for good. Are we talking daily/year-round, or a few times a week? I guess AA may have better luck getting feed from AS than DL did from their own network.


I've been thinking AA would go for SEA-HKG. With the AS feed and the right sized plane (guessing 787-9 or -8) it could work and likely replace LAX-HKG.

I believe one of the main reasons DL dropped SEA-HKG is that they didn't have the right aircraft type to make the route feasible. They tried both the 777 & A330, so AA may be more successful with the 787 (if this route is even launched at all).
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:07 pm

AC4500 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Wow, that's quite ambitious. I guess it could make sense with CX leaving the market for good. Are we talking daily/year-round, or a few times a week? I guess AA may have better luck getting feed from AS than DL did from their own network.


I've been thinking AA would go for SEA-HKG. With the AS feed and the right sized plane (guessing 787-9 or -8) it could work and likely replace LAX-HKG.

I believe one of the main reasons DL dropped SEA-HKG is that they didn't have the right aircraft type to make the route feasible. They tried both the 777 & A330, so AA may be more successful with the 787 (if this route is even launched at all).


I think that was part of DL's decision to drop it and a relatively weak sales presence in the market (they moved the HKG service around I think a few times). Delta operated the 777-200LR I think and then the A330-200 (from SEA). AA has the benefit of the CX membership in oneworld on the HKG end and the AS feed it will capture on the SEA end, and the 787 seems like the right sized plane for this type of route. UA, pre-pandemic, made HKG work without feed on the HKG end because of its long standing presence there and balanced POS between the US and HKG markets. I do think though the HKG market has already shifted and business demand will remain relatively muted as companies shift out of HKG and over to Taipei and Singapore.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Aa ran a maximum of about 110 flights a day out of jfk pre covid
B6 about 180.
They need to sell 7 slots.

So they can fly a maximum of about 280 flights a day post covid. JetBlue was talking about expanding to up to 240 flights a day at jfk in their internal email. Even if they do more flights that don’t use prime slots and collect a few slots from international carriers that drop service, it’s hard to see how aa end up with more than 50 flights a day. That’s the number I have been stating on JetBlue thread for several days now.


You also said it was likely AA wouldn't bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND, and all 3 were added back for April

here is what I actually wrote. Please do not misrepresent me.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1455979&start=300#p22644409
"the big question is how long does AA sustain routes like ATL/DTW/MSP? These were definitely all loss-leaders out of LGA. And what about the midwest stuff like CLE/CMH/IND/CVG? They struggled in all these places against DL. Are these the kind of routes that AA wants to bring back post-COVID? I think AA is still looking to see how long it will take demand to come back to LGA. It certainly would not surprise me if AA decides to drop these routes."

The question isn't whether they will bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND. If they want to keep their LGA slots and don't want to give up their metal flying, they will fly these routes. Up to this point, the amount of growth at LGA that B6 is talking about is basically AA transferring all the slots that were flying mostly 44/50 seater routes. Among other routes, I think we will see what AA wants to sustain long term. That will depend on long term demand profile out of LGA. As I said, there are profound demand changes in NY area that we might not understand for several years. That will determine how much AA will decide it wants to fly out of LGA in a couple of years.

It's really not at all difficult to see how AA gets over 50 departures at JFK, they are at nearly 30 in April. Even assuming they cut every RJ flight, cut FLL(which hasn't even started)/LAS/SAN/SAT, even not including the BOG/CLO/MDE/SCL adds or any future adds, that is still around 60 flights/day


They will only get to above 50 flights a day if JetBlue is lying.

They are not getting back to 13x daily on a route like JFK-LAX when they will be coordinating schedules with JetBlue. Similarly, JetBlue is not getting back up to 11 to 12x daily on JFK-LAX. Same with JFK-SFO and other routes where they will both fly on. NYC demand is going to have some real changes. Both airlines can add as many routes as they want and advertise as many flights as they want, but they are not going to come close to utilizing their slots anytime soon.


You said it wouldn't surprise you if AA dropped those routes, now you are saying it wasn't even a question that AA would bring those back? What? Btw you said similar things prior, I'm not just isolating that one statement.

I wasn't even counting JFK-LAX as 13x:
JFK-LAX 10
JFK-MIA 8 (conservative given they are already at 7)
JFK-CLT 7
JFK-SFO 5
JFK-PHX 5
JFK-DFW/ORD/DCA/BOS 5 total (conservative given AA's growth outlook from DFW & DCA)
JFK-LHR 4

That's 44 right there....

Not including:
JFK-AUS 1 (Already being brought back in April)
JFK-MAD/MXP/GRU/EZE/BZN/CDG/TLV/ATH/FCO 9 (All confirmed to restart daily)

That 54 right there.....

Not even including up to 10+ flights from these routes:
JFK-ANU/BDA/CUN/GEO/LIR/MBJ/SJO/PUJ/STT
JFK-BOG/CLO/MDE/SCL


If you can't see a way AA at JFK gets above 50 departures (you had even previously said 40), then you aren't trying at all
Last edited by Midwestindy on Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
806535
Posts: 23
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:35 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:

I've been thinking AA would go for SEA-HKG. With the AS feed and the right sized plane (guessing 787-9 or -8) it could work and likely replace LAX-HKG.

I believe one of the main reasons DL dropped SEA-HKG is that they didn't have the right aircraft type to make the route feasible. They tried both the 777 & A330, so AA may be more successful with the 787 (if this route is even launched at all).


I think that was part of DL's decision to drop it and a relatively weak sales presence in the market (they moved the HKG service around I think a few times). Delta operated the 777-200LR I think and then the A330-200 (from SEA). AA has the benefit of the CX membership in oneworld on the HKG end and the AS feed it will capture on the SEA end, and the 787 seems like the right sized plane for this type of route. UA, pre-pandemic, made HKG work without feed on the HKG end because of its long standing presence there and balanced POS between the US and HKG markets. I do think though the HKG market has already shifted and business demand will remain relatively muted as companies shift out of HKG and over to Taipei and Singapore.


DL's always had a hard time in HKG... They started in 2010 5x weekly with a 777 from DTW but it only lasted until 2012, then from SEA in 2014 with a 332 that was eventually upgauged to a 777 before they pulled out in 2018 (Not sure about NW's presence or anything pre-2010). Especially if AA were to use a 787 there's no question they have a better likelihood of success on the route than DL given the OW feed on both ends. Like you said, their problem is more likely to be that HKG demand is quickly shifting.

Your point about SIN (and TPE) is an interesting one... I wonder how much longer SQ could remain viable without an AS partnership and if that might be a launch point for future AA SIN services if SEA proves successful for them. I anticipate that's a business market that could grow considerably post-COVID
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4626
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:59 pm

OscarAlphaKilo wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
I believe one of the main reasons DL dropped SEA-HKG is that they didn't have the right aircraft type to make the route feasible. They tried both the 777 & A330, so AA may be more successful with the 787 (if this route is even launched at all).


I think that was part of DL's decision to drop it and a relatively weak sales presence in the market (they moved the HKG service around I think a few times). Delta operated the 777-200LR I think and then the A330-200 (from SEA). AA has the benefit of the CX membership in oneworld on the HKG end and the AS feed it will capture on the SEA end, and the 787 seems like the right sized plane for this type of route. UA, pre-pandemic, made HKG work without feed on the HKG end because of its long standing presence there and balanced POS between the US and HKG markets. I do think though the HKG market has already shifted and business demand will remain relatively muted as companies shift out of HKG and over to Taipei and Singapore.


DL's always had a hard time in HKG... They started in 2010 5x weekly with a 777 from DTW but it only lasted until 2012, then from SEA in 2014 with a 332 that was eventually upgauged to a 777 before they pulled out in 2018 (Not sure about NW's presence or anything pre-2010). Especially if AA were to use a 787 there's no question they have a better likelihood of success on the route than DL given the OW feed on both ends. Like you said, their problem is more likely to be that HKG demand is quickly shifting.

Your point about SIN (and TPE) is an interesting one... I wonder how much longer SQ could remain viable without an AS partnership and if that might be a launch point for future AA SIN services if SEA proves successful for them. I anticipate that's a business market that could grow considerably post-COVID


I don't have all the details about Northwest's legacy HKG service. I seem to recall they flew HKG via NRT on the 747 (200 or 400) but I don't remember if they also ran it nonstop from DTW. I lived in Tokyo in 1996-1997 and remember both NW and UA flew HKG via NRT on the -200 and then switched to the -400 but not necessarily at the same time. But yes, DL has struggled with HKG since it first ventured into Asia and also claimed it wasn't vital to their TPAC network either. As for SQ on SEA-SIN, I think that is an interesting question. The only logical place for AA to launch a SIN service nonstop from the US would be SEA. They would need to take penalties out of LAX (UA had this issue when they briefly ran the service a few years ago before consolidating it to SFO) and by all accounts, LAX as an Asia gateway for AA seems to be over and done with. Post-COVID yes, I think US-SIN will see growth. Two carriers on SEA-SIN is likely to be too much (DL could just as easily add an A350 in the market).
 
tphuang
Posts: 6614
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 16, 2021 7:14 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You also said it was likely AA wouldn't bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND, and all 3 were added back for April

here is what I actually wrote. Please do not misrepresent me.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1455979&start=300#p22644409
"the big question is how long does AA sustain routes like ATL/DTW/MSP? These were definitely all loss-leaders out of LGA. And what about the midwest stuff like CLE/CMH/IND/CVG? They struggled in all these places against DL. Are these the kind of routes that AA wants to bring back post-COVID? I think AA is still looking to see how long it will take demand to come back to LGA. It certainly would not surprise me if AA decides to drop these routes."

The question isn't whether they will bring back LGA-CLE/CMH/IND. If they want to keep their LGA slots and don't want to give up their metal flying, they will fly these routes. Up to this point, the amount of growth at LGA that B6 is talking about is basically AA transferring all the slots that were flying mostly 44/50 seater routes. Among other routes, I think we will see what AA wants to sustain long term. That will depend on long term demand profile out of LGA. As I said, there are profound demand changes in NY area that we might not understand for several years. That will determine how much AA will decide it wants to fly out of LGA in a couple of years.

It's really not at all difficult to see how AA gets over 50 departures at JFK, they are at nearly 30 in April. Even assuming they cut every RJ flight, cut FLL(which hasn't even started)/LAS/SAN/SAT, even not including the BOG/CLO/MDE/SCL adds or any future adds, that is still around 60 flights/day


They will only get to above 50 flights a day if JetBlue is lying.

They are not getting back to 13x daily on a route like JFK-LAX when they will be coordinating schedules with JetBlue. Similarly, JetBlue is not getting back up to 11 to 12x daily on JFK-LAX. Same with JFK-SFO and other routes where they will both fly on. NYC demand is going to have some real changes. Both airlines can add as many routes as they want and advertise as many flights as they want, but they are not going to come close to utilizing their slots anytime soon.


You said it wouldn't surprise you if AA dropped those routes, now you are saying it wasn't even a question that AA would bring those back? What? Btw you said similar things prior, I'm not just isolating that one statement.


I was talking about the future. The increase in B6 flights at LGA is basically from AA routes that were on 44/50 seaters. That should be obvious. It would require AA to bring everything back to utilize all their slots.

I was looking at the likelihood of AA looking to transfer more than 40 to 45 slots at LGA if the partnership is going well and LGA continues to be weak. That would require AA giving up on routes like ATL/DTW/MSP and/or the midwest stuff.

I wasn't even counting JFK-LAX as 13x:
JFK-LAX 10
JFK-MIA 8 (conservative given they are already at 7)
JFK-CLT 7
JFK-SFO 5
JFK-PHX 5
JFK-DFW/ORD/DCA/BOS 5 total (conservative given AA's growth outlook from DFW & DCA)
JFK-LHR 4

I can't see how them operate 10x to LAX, 5x to PHX and 5x to SFO given the schedule coordination with B6. I can't see JFK-BOS coming back, that was a disaster. I don't think ORD/DCA are coming back, since those are just feeding flights that JetBlue will likely takeover. But we will see, I could be wrong on those 2. As of now, I see 2x daily on JFK-DFW as the only destination coming back.

Not really sure why you think JFK-MIA at 8x is conservative if that's what they ran pre-COVID and Florida is about the only place where demand somewhat matches 2019. I don't see why CLT at 7x is a given. If JetBlue launches JFK-CLT, I can definitely see AA just stop at 5x daily there.
That's 44 right there....

Not including:
JFK-AUS 1 (Already being brought back in April)
JFK-MAD/MXP/GRU/EZE/BZN/CDG/TLV/ATH/FCO 9 (All confirmed to restart daily)

That 54 right there.....

AUS probably stick around, but it's a little optimistic to assume all those international routes will stick around given the weak demand environment we are in.

Not even including up to 10+ flights from these routes:
JFK-ANU/BDA/CUN/GEO/LIR/MBJ/SJO/PUJ/STT
JFK-BOG/CLO/MDE/SCL

You might want to check up on AA's recent record on Caribbean routes out of JFK and how long they last. I don't see more than 3 of these routes survive as daily year round flights once business demand comes back.

If you can't see a way AA at JFK gets above 50 departures (you had even previously said 40), then you aren't trying at all


Well, I said 40 to 45. That's definitely under 50.

Now that JetBlue has announced what their planned expansion is and we know how many slots are given up, it's a lot easier to figure out how many AA flights will be operated.

Who knows, maybe JetBlue management is making stuff up. We will see. You are definitely quite optimistic on demand out of JFK.

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