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Runway765
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:45 am

jayunited wrote:
I don't think we are going to see any mergers at all in the US. The industry and the public has had enough of mergers most of them have ended with broken promises. Once this CARES 3 is over and airlines are really on their own each carrier will have to stand on its own and if they can't do it they will need to downsize their operations to the point where they can survive.


Was anyone really naive to believe that jobs and certain hubs would be saved via the mergers?

Actually, downsizing will only boost the case for an AA/AS merger down the road.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4043
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:08 am

Runway765 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Yeah, that would be a really great outcome. AA absorbing AS would turn out just like AA absorbing Air Cal and Reno Air, and US Air absorbing PSA. The entire route structure would be gone in a few years.

AA absorbing AS would likely be a disaster for AA and AS. It would be wonderful for WN. Fortunately AS’s management seems to recognize this too.


Clearly not as they agreed to join oneworld. By doing that, AA has cornered then with the new partnership. What realistic growth options does AS have? AS is pretty much now an AA feeder airline on the west coast. Reality is their only option will be to eventually merge with AA.


This is not true at all.
AS will continue to expand based upon its unique strengths:
SEA O&D traffic.
Pacific NW dominance
State of Alaska network
West Coast-Hawaii network
LAX SJC and SAN focus cities
AA is not hemming them in, if anything AA actually helps their expansion by giving them some outstation POS strength.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4179
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:37 am

Runway765 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Yeah, that would be a really great outcome. AA absorbing AS would turn out just like AA absorbing Air Cal and Reno Air, and US Air absorbing PSA. The entire route structure would be gone in a few years.

AA absorbing AS would likely be a disaster for AA and AS. It would be wonderful for WN. Fortunately AS’s management seems to recognize this too.


Clearly not as they agreed to join oneworld. By doing that, AA has cornered then with the new partnership. What realistic growth options does AS have? AS is pretty much now an AA feeder airline on the west coast. Reality is their only option will be to eventually merge with AA.


AA has cornered nothing. AS is a great airline with unique strengths but benefits from a much broader reach globally, not just with AA but with the rest of OW at a time when business travel will remain muted and leisure alone can't carry any airline. AS isn't a feeder airline to AA. They balance each other out significantly and most importantly, help to keep Delta in check, notably in SEA but also in LAX. I do believe though that down the road, AA and AS can merge and very well might.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6490
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:52 am

Runway765 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Yeah, that would be a really great outcome. AA absorbing AS would turn out just like AA absorbing Air Cal and Reno Air, and US Air absorbing PSA. The entire route structure would be gone in a few years.

AA absorbing AS would likely be a disaster for AA and AS. It would be wonderful for WN. Fortunately AS’s management seems to recognize this too.


Clearly not as they agreed to join oneworld. By doing that, AA has cornered then with the new partnership. What realistic growth options does AS have? AS is pretty much now an AA feeder airline on the west coast. Reality is their only option will be to eventually merge with AA.


With all due respect, saying that AS is pretty much now an AA feeder airline shows a lack of understanding of AS’s route structure. It’s absurd.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26524
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:02 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
are a lot of silly adds by both carriers. B6 in MIA


That is nuts to call jetBlue adding Miami a "silly add." It's about 15 years overdue.

JetBlue is running six daily MIAJFK flights compared to five FLLJFK right now, so it's not hard to guess what airport customers prefer...
a.
 
ABEguy
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:02 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:04 am

Not sure whether it was already mentioned, but DFW-ANC gets upgraded June 3rd from A321NX to 787-9.
 
Runway765
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:15 am

usflyer msp wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
Yeah, that would be a really great outcome. AA absorbing AS would turn out just like AA absorbing Air Cal and Reno Air, and US Air absorbing PSA. The entire route structure would be gone in a few years.

AA absorbing AS would likely be a disaster for AA and AS. It would be wonderful for WN. Fortunately AS’s management seems to recognize this too.


Clearly not as they agreed to join oneworld. By doing that, AA has cornered then with the new partnership. What realistic growth options does AS have? AS is pretty much now an AA feeder airline on the west coast. Reality is their only option will be to eventually merge with AA.


This is not true at all.
AS will continue to expand based upon its unique strengths:
SEA O&D traffic.
Pacific NW dominance
State of Alaska network
West Coast-Hawaii network
LAX SJC and SAN focus cities
AA is not hemming them in, if anything AA actually helps their expansion by giving them some outstation POS strength.


You didn’t quite answer the question: Where else can AS realistically expand? They won’t acquire widebodies and go overseas and there is not much more they can do domestically. They are feeling the squeeze on all their California and Hawaii routes thanks to WN.

Eventually, AA is going to want full control of the domestic feed in SEA like DL, as they can’t coordinate scheduling/fares with AS despite the partnership.

So yes, AS is pretty much boxed in.
 
DMPHL
Posts: 35
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:33 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:45 am

Runway765 wrote:
Bigant0408 wrote:
AA interview in regards to there stance with JFK and PHL

https://simpleflying.com/american-new-y ... ladelphia/


What’s the point of the B6 partnership if PHL is going to remain the primary TATL hub?

This is why we need to go down to two network carriers with complete networks rather than 3 with incomplete gaps.


It says it right in the article, from the MD of Network Planning, and other executives have said it multiple times. The point of the B6 partnership is not to turn JFK into a massive TATL connecting hub, but to strengthen its market share in New York City by tapping into another base of FFs who now have incentive to fly AA. There is going to be some marginal connecting flow over JFK, which may help some routes like ATH and TLV get into the black, but most of the traffic will be NYC-originating and disembarking.

PHL is a lower cost operation that, as is stated in the article, allows AA to connect most of the country to and from Europe on its own metal. There is not really a reason to flow a passenger DEN-JFK-ATH with the first leg on B6, when you can connect them through PHL on your own metal, pocket 100% of the revenue, and keep seats open on the JFK flight for NYC-originating passengers who are going to potentially be paying a premium for a non-stop.

Again, JFK and PHL serve different purposes.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3345
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:12 am

ABEguy wrote:
Not sure whether it was already mentioned, but DFW-ANC gets upgraded June 3rd from A321NX to 787-9.



American also just announced ORD-ANC will also be upguaged to a 789 from June 3rd through August 16th.

Even during the best of times both AA and UA has utilized narrowbodies only on this route. Now AA will fly this route with a 789 even with the Alaska cruise season basically canceled. It is going to be interesting to see the impact this excess capacity has on yield and on demand. Is there enough demand to warrant daily 789s from both DFW and ORD without tanking yields on one or both routes? Only time will tell.

I don't expect United to follow suit at all, we don't have any 787s to spare to send up to Alaska but it is an interesting move by AA none the less.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5499
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:35 am

Runway765 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Runway765 wrote:

Clearly not as they agreed to join oneworld. By doing that, AA has cornered then with the new partnership. What realistic growth options does AS have? AS is pretty much now an AA feeder airline on the west coast. Reality is their only option will be to eventually merge with AA.


This is not true at all.
AS will continue to expand based upon its unique strengths:
SEA O&D traffic.
Pacific NW dominance
State of Alaska network
West Coast-Hawaii network
LAX SJC and SAN focus cities
AA is not hemming them in, if anything AA actually helps their expansion by giving them some outstation POS strength.


You didn’t quite answer the question: Where else can AS realistically expand? They won’t acquire widebodies and go overseas and there is not much more they can do domestically. They are feeling the squeeze on all their California and Hawaii routes thanks to WN.

Eventually, AA is going to want full control of the domestic feed in SEA like DL, as they can’t coordinate scheduling/fares with AS despite the partnership.

So yes, AS is pretty much boxed in.


I respectfully disagree with your assessment of Alaska Airlines. I think AS has plenty of opportunity out there as they continue to increase their flying resources. There are plenty of routes to increase frequency. Airline expansion is not all about adding destinations. AS could also connect more existing dots as well.
 
PSA727
Posts: 902
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 7:49 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:01 am

jayunited wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
Not sure whether it was already mentioned, but DFW-ANC gets upgraded June 3rd from A321NX to 787-9.



American also just announced ORD-ANC will also be upguaged to a 789 from June 3rd through August 16th.

Even during the best of times both AA and UA has utilized narrowbodies only on this route. Now AA will fly this route with a 789 even with the Alaska cruise season basically canceled. It is going to be interesting to see the impact this excess capacity has on yield and on demand. Is there enough demand to warrant daily 789s from both DFW and ORD without tanking yields on one or both routes? Only time will tell.

I don't expect United to follow suit at all, we don't have any 787s to spare to send up to Alaska but it is an interesting move by AA none the less.


To be honest, upgrading the aircraft from a 321neo to a 787-8 is only adding around 30 seats on the flight each day. However, the 787 can carry a lot more cargo than the 321. So, perhaps that is the driving factor for the larger plane. Also, AA will now be selling W seats (28 total) on these flights. Which means they can bring in more revenue for the flight, even if they aren't really selling more seats overall.

As for the people taking an airline executive's word on future plans at hubs... really? I remember DL not planning to de-hub CVG or MEM after the NW merger. I remember UA not planning to de-hub CLE. I remember US not planning to de-hub PIT. Until they all did just that.
fly high, pay low...Germanwings!
 
Ishrion
Topic Author
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:29 am

PSA727 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
Not sure whether it was already mentioned, but DFW-ANC gets upgraded June 3rd from A321NX to 787-9.



American also just announced ORD-ANC will also be upguaged to a 789 from June 3rd through August 16th.

Even during the best of times both AA and UA has utilized narrowbodies only on this route. Now AA will fly this route with a 789 even with the Alaska cruise season basically canceled. It is going to be interesting to see the impact this excess capacity has on yield and on demand. Is there enough demand to warrant daily 789s from both DFW and ORD without tanking yields on one or both routes? Only time will tell.

I don't expect United to follow suit at all, we don't have any 787s to spare to send up to Alaska but it is an interesting move by AA none the less.


To be honest, upgrading the aircraft from a 321neo to a 787-8 is only adding around 30 seats on the flight each day. However, the 787 can carry a lot more cargo than the 321. So, perhaps that is the driving factor for the larger plane. Also, AA will now be selling W seats (28 total) on these flights. Which means they can bring in more revenue for the flight, even if they aren't really selling more seats overall.


ANC-DFW/ORD during the peak summer season will be flown with the 787-9, not 787-8. It’s an increase of 89 seats for each route.
 
PSA727
Posts: 902
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 7:49 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:36 am

Ishrion wrote:

ANC-DFW/ORD during the peak summer season will be flown with the 787-9, not 787-8. It’s an increase of 89 seats for each route.


A 787-9 out of ORD? Do they fly any other routes there with that version? I thought ORD was all 787-8s.
fly high, pay low...Germanwings!
 
Detroit313
Posts: 634
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 6:57 am

Finally after many months, MIA - DTW started again this month on April 1st. Once daily. Hopefully it goes back to 2 or 3 daily like it used to be.
 
Ishrion
Topic Author
Posts: 3568
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:57 am

PSA727 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

ANC-DFW/ORD during the peak summer season will be flown with the 787-9, not 787-8. It’s an increase of 89 seats for each route.


A 787-9 out of ORD? Do they fly any other routes there with that version? I thought ORD was all 787-8s.


Right now AA’s cargo-only ORD-FRA is with the 787-9. They typically use it on ORD-DFW/LAX, but not at the moment. Pre-COVID a few of AA’s ORD-LHR frequencies were on the 787-9.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3345
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:30 pm

PSA727 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
ABEguy wrote:
Not sure whether it was already mentioned, but DFW-ANC gets upgraded June 3rd from A321NX to 787-9.



American also just announced ORD-ANC will also be upguaged to a 789 from June 3rd through August 16th.

Even during the best of times both AA and UA has utilized narrowbodies only on this route. Now AA will fly this route with a 789 even with the Alaska cruise season basically canceled. It is going to be interesting to see the impact this excess capacity has on yield and on demand. Is there enough demand to warrant daily 789s from both DFW and ORD without tanking yields on one or both routes? Only time will tell.

I don't expect United to follow suit at all, we don't have any 787s to spare to send up to Alaska but it is an interesting move by AA none the less.


To be honest, upgrading the aircraft from a 321neo to a 787-8 is only adding around 30 seats on the flight each day. However, the 787 can carry a lot more cargo than the 321. So, perhaps that is the driving factor for the larger plane. Also, AA will now be selling W seats (28 total) on these flights. Which means they can bring in more revenue for the flight, even if they aren't really selling more seats overall.

As for the people taking an airline executive's word on future plans at hubs... really? I remember DL not planning to de-hub CVG or MEM after the NW merger. I remember UA not planning to de-hub CLE. I remember US not planning to de-hub PIT. Until they all did just that.


I'm almost certain cargo has nothing to do with AA on this route. Freighters have ORD-ANC sewed up tight and it is highly doubtful AA scored a 2 month cargo contract. To land a contract AA's price would have to be lower than most if not all the dedicated freighters that fly this route year around. United has been flying cargo only flights for over a year now and have been a lot more successful at cargo only flights than AA, and not even United can break into the ORD-ANC-ORD freight market. Demand on the route hasn't been diminished and these dedicated cargo airlines can undercut any price United comes up with. The chance of this upguage being about cargo is next to zero especially when you talking about ORD-ANC where some days you have 10 flights on freighters flying 747s and 777s.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4244
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:20 am

nomorerjs wrote:
Another demanded route in this forum, DFW-NGO for Toyota drives me nuts. Did anyone fly LAX-NGO for Toyota when Toyota was in Torrence? Just curious.


JL has recently operated some repatriation flights to NGO from DFW.

UA used to fly SFO-NGO in the past, but there is a high-tech presence in both Greater Nagoya and the San Francisco Bay Area with Brother Industries being headquartered in Nagoya and with many high-tech companies having headquarters in Silicon Valley. UA also offered 1-stop connecting service between LAX and NGO through SFO prior to dropping SFO-NGO nonstop service.

In addition to Toyota having its North American headquarters in Plano, there are also some Toyota factories in the Southern U.S., Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. There are also some Toyota employees who need to connect to places such as BJX, EZE, HSV, MEM, SAT, and GRU from NGO (or vice versa) through DFW on AA, and AA adding NGO-DFW nonstop service would provide 1-stop connectivity from NGO to places in the Southern U.S. and Latin America where Toyota has factories.

nomorerjs wrote:
Also, DFW-KIX is demanded for less traffic. Who will support this route? What does it offer that DTW and ORD don’t offer?


Osaka-based Kubota has its North American headquarters in Grapevine, TX near DFW Airport. Higashiosaka-based Kinki Sharyo, who manufactures the DART Light Rail trains, has a facility near Fair Park in Dallas. Some of the Toyota suppliers are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region.

There are also many global Japanese companies that are household names in America that are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region, including Asics, Kawasaki, Kyocera, Nintendo, Nissin Foods, Panasonic, Sanyo, and Sharp. Osaka-based Beam Suntory owns some Kentucky bourbon and tequila brands that are well-known in the United States, including Jim Beam, Maker's Mark, and Sauza.

There is currently no nonstop service to DTW or ORD from KIX, even though KIX might be able to support nonstop service from ORD with the business travel that is there to some Eastern U.S. cities such as Chicago, Newark, New York City, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis from the Keihanshin region (and vice versa).

JL adding KIX-SEA nonstop service might be a possibility with (a) Kyoto-based Nintendo having its North American headquarters in Redmond, WA in the Greater Seattle Area and (b) the connections that could be offered through SEA to destinations such as ORD, CVG, DFW, DAL, IND, JFK, and EWR.
 
AC4500
Posts: 479
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:10 am

jplatts wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
Another demanded route in this forum, DFW-NGO for Toyota drives me nuts. Did anyone fly LAX-NGO for Toyota when Toyota was in Torrence? Just curious.


JL has recently operated some repatriation flights to NGO from DFW.

UA used to fly SFO-NGO in the past, but there is a high-tech presence in both Greater Nagoya and the San Francisco Bay Area with Brother Industries being headquartered in Nagoya and with many high-tech companies having headquarters in Silicon Valley. UA also offered 1-stop connecting service between LAX and NGO through SFO prior to dropping SFO-NGO nonstop service.

In addition to Toyota having its North American headquarters in Plano, there are also some Toyota factories in the Southern U.S., Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. There are also some Toyota employees who need to connect to places such as BJX, EZE, HSV, MEM, SAT, and GRU from NGO (or vice versa) through DFW on AA, and AA adding NGO-DFW nonstop service would provide 1-stop connectivity from NGO to places in the Southern U.S. and Latin America where Toyota has factories.

nomorerjs wrote:
Also, DFW-KIX is demanded for less traffic. Who will support this route? What does it offer that DTW and ORD don’t offer?


Osaka-based Kubota has its North American headquarters in Grapevine, TX near DFW Airport. Higashiosaka-based Kinki Sharyo, who manufactures the DART Light Rail trains, has a facility near Fair Park in Dallas. Some of the Toyota suppliers are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region.

There are also many global Japanese companies that are household names in America that are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region, including Asics, Kawasaki, Kyocera, Nintendo, Nissin Foods, Panasonic, Sanyo, and Sharp. Osaka-based Beam Suntory owns some Kentucky bourbon and tequila brands that are well-known in the United States, including Jim Beam, Maker's Mark, and Sauza.

There is currently no nonstop service to DTW or ORD from KIX, even though KIX might be able to support nonstop service from ORD with the business travel that is there to some Eastern U.S. cities such as Chicago, Newark, New York City, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis from the Keihanshin region (and vice versa).

JL adding KIX-SEA nonstop service might be a possibility with (a) Kyoto-based Nintendo having its North American headquarters in Redmond, WA in the Greater Seattle Area and (b) the connections that could be offered through SEA to destinations such as ORD, CVG, DFW, DAL, IND, JFK, and EWR.

Im not really sure how relevent any of this is given that long-haul/international business travel is going to be at a standstill for at least another year or two, and quite possibly longer than that. The SFO bay area in particular is struggling more so than most markets, as it is going to take quite awhile for these tech companies to resume traveling for business related purposes. Airlines aren't going to be opening routes that are essentially dedicated for specific companies anytime soon.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4179
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:17 am

jplatts wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
Another demanded route in this forum, DFW-NGO for Toyota drives me nuts. Did anyone fly LAX-NGO for Toyota when Toyota was in Torrence? Just curious.


JL has recently operated some repatriation flights to NGO from DFW.

UA used to fly SFO-NGO in the past, but there is a high-tech presence in both Greater Nagoya and the San Francisco Bay Area with Brother Industries being headquartered in Nagoya and with many high-tech companies having headquarters in Silicon Valley. UA also offered 1-stop connecting service between LAX and NGO through SFO prior to dropping SFO-NGO nonstop service.

In addition to Toyota having its North American headquarters in Plano, there are also some Toyota factories in the Southern U.S., Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. There are also some Toyota employees who need to connect to places such as BJX, EZE, HSV, MEM, SAT, and GRU from NGO (or vice versa) through DFW on AA, and AA adding NGO-DFW nonstop service would provide 1-stop connectivity from NGO to places in the Southern U.S. and Latin America where Toyota has factories.

nomorerjs wrote:
Also, DFW-KIX is demanded for less traffic. Who will support this route? What does it offer that DTW and ORD don’t offer?


Osaka-based Kubota has its North American headquarters in Grapevine, TX near DFW Airport. Higashiosaka-based Kinki Sharyo, who manufactures the DART Light Rail trains, has a facility near Fair Park in Dallas. Some of the Toyota suppliers are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region.

There are also many global Japanese companies that are household names in America that are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region, including Asics, Kawasaki, Kyocera, Nintendo, Nissin Foods, Panasonic, Sanyo, and Sharp. Osaka-based Beam Suntory owns some Kentucky bourbon and tequila brands that are well-known in the United States, including Jim Beam, Maker's Mark, and Sauza.

There is currently no nonstop service to DTW or ORD from KIX, even though KIX might be able to support nonstop service from ORD with the business travel that is there to some Eastern U.S. cities such as Chicago, Newark, New York City, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis from the Keihanshin region (and vice versa).

JL adding KIX-SEA nonstop service might be a possibility with (a) Kyoto-based Nintendo having its North American headquarters in Redmond, WA in the Greater Seattle Area and (b) the connections that could be offered through SEA to destinations such as ORD, CVG, DFW, DAL, IND, JFK, and EWR.


US-KIX flights have largely been poor performers and shown to not work. That is why there was very little of it pre-pandemic. KIX serves a huge region and there are natural business ties to numerous US metropolitan areas, but it has always been a thin route and those that fly it often use their smallest wide body to do it.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6490
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:13 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
jplatts wrote:
nomorerjs wrote:
Another demanded route in this forum, DFW-NGO for Toyota drives me nuts. Did anyone fly LAX-NGO for Toyota when Toyota was in Torrence? Just curious.


JL has recently operated some repatriation flights to NGO from DFW.

UA used to fly SFO-NGO in the past, but there is a high-tech presence in both Greater Nagoya and the San Francisco Bay Area with Brother Industries being headquartered in Nagoya and with many high-tech companies having headquarters in Silicon Valley. UA also offered 1-stop connecting service between LAX and NGO through SFO prior to dropping SFO-NGO nonstop service.

In addition to Toyota having its North American headquarters in Plano, there are also some Toyota factories in the Southern U.S., Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. There are also some Toyota employees who need to connect to places such as BJX, EZE, HSV, MEM, SAT, and GRU from NGO (or vice versa) through DFW on AA, and AA adding NGO-DFW nonstop service would provide 1-stop connectivity from NGO to places in the Southern U.S. and Latin America where Toyota has factories.

nomorerjs wrote:
Also, DFW-KIX is demanded for less traffic. Who will support this route? What does it offer that DTW and ORD don’t offer?


Osaka-based Kubota has its North American headquarters in Grapevine, TX near DFW Airport. Higashiosaka-based Kinki Sharyo, who manufactures the DART Light Rail trains, has a facility near Fair Park in Dallas. Some of the Toyota suppliers are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region.

There are also many global Japanese companies that are household names in America that are headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) region, including Asics, Kawasaki, Kyocera, Nintendo, Nissin Foods, Panasonic, Sanyo, and Sharp. Osaka-based Beam Suntory owns some Kentucky bourbon and tequila brands that are well-known in the United States, including Jim Beam, Maker's Mark, and Sauza.

There is currently no nonstop service to DTW or ORD from KIX, even though KIX might be able to support nonstop service from ORD with the business travel that is there to some Eastern U.S. cities such as Chicago, Newark, New York City, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis from the Keihanshin region (and vice versa).

JL adding KIX-SEA nonstop service might be a possibility with (a) Kyoto-based Nintendo having its North American headquarters in Redmond, WA in the Greater Seattle Area and (b) the connections that could be offered through SEA to destinations such as ORD, CVG, DFW, DAL, IND, JFK, and EWR.


US-KIX flights have largely been poor performers and shown to not work. That is why there was very little of it pre-pandemic. KIX serves a huge region and there are natural business ties to numerous US metropolitan areas, but it has always been a thin route and those that fly it often use their smallest wide body to do it.


AA has started and discontinued DFW-KIX two or three times. NW/DL has done the same with SEA-KIX - on and off more times than a prom dress.

AA always did DFW-KIX with a 777, IIRC. Maybe the route would do better with a 787-8.

SEA-KIX has been a DC-10 and 767. I don’t recall if it was flown with an A330 at some point. Doesn’t seem to even work with a 767.

AA tried ORD-NGO with a 777 also. That didn’t last either.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4244
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:41 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
AA has started and discontinued DFW-KIX two or three times. NW/DL has done the same with SEA-KIX - on and off more times than a prom dress.

AA always did DFW-KIX with a 777, IIRC. Maybe the route would do better with a 787-8.


The situation is different on DFW-KIX than was the case in the past with Osaka-based Kubota having its North American headquarters in Grapevine near DFW Airport and with some of the Toyota suppliers being headquartered in the Keihanshin (Kyoto/Osaka/Kobe) area.

BoeingGuy wrote:
SEA-KIX has been a DC-10 and 767. I don’t recall if it was flown with an A330 at some point. Doesn’t seem to even work with a 767.


AA/JL could probably make SEA-KIX nonstop service work with
(a) Kyoto-based Nintendo having its North American headquarters in Redmond, WA in the Seattle area,
(b) SEA being located in the northwest corner of the contiguous U.S.,
(c) AA/JL being able to offer connections onto AS flights out of SEA,
(d) AS now serving more cities nonstop from SEA,
(e) AA now serving the PHX, CLT, and PHL hubs nonstop from SEA as a result of the AA-US merger,
(f) JL having a significant FF base in the Keihanshin region to support SEA-KIX nonstop service on AA/JL, and
(g) AA and AS both having a FF base in the U.S. to support SEA-KIX nonstop service on AA/JL.
 
BarrenLucidity
Posts: 16
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:16 am

KIX could work but in the grand scheme of Japan you're really only saving an hour or two of travel vs HND. Can AA/JAL non-stop out compete a shinkansen or even a quick one stop? Outside of Hawaii there isn't much of a market for KIX and the US. Delta had seasonal service, same with Air Canada.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4244
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:59 pm

BarrenLucidity wrote:
KIX could work but in the grand scheme of Japan you're really only saving an hour or two of travel vs HND. Can AA/JAL non-stop out compete a shinkansen or even a quick one stop? Outside of Hawaii there isn't much of a market for KIX and the US. Delta had seasonal service, same with Air Canada.


It takes approximately 3 hours to get from HND to Shin-Osaka Station via the Keikyu Line and Tokaido Shinkansen, whereas it takes approximately 1 hour to get to Shin-Osaka Station (on the north side of Osaka) from KIX via either the Nankai Line/Osaka Metro Midosuji Line or the JR West Haruka. The south side of Osaka is closer to KIX, and you can get to Namba Station in approximately 40-45 minutes via the Nankai Line from KIX.

There is also a high-speed ferry to Kobe from KIX that takes approximately 30 minutes, and the high-speed ferry is much faster than taking buses or trains through the city of Osaka to get to Kobe.

An AA/JL nonstop to KIX from the contiguous U.S. could easily outcompete the Tokaido Shinkansen since the travel times to Osaka, Sakai, Kobe, and Wakayama from KIX is much shorter than the travel times to Osaka, Sakai, Kobe, and Wakayama from Tokyo via the Tokaido Shinkansen. AA/JL adding SEA-KIX nonstop service would also provide easier access to KIX from U.S. cities that do not have nonstop service to TYO on AA, JL, UA, or NH with AA/JL being able to offer connections onto AS flights out of SEA.
 
AC4500
Posts: 479
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:50 pm

Does anyone know when we'll see the tentative schedule update for June?
 
Ishrion
Topic Author
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:00 pm

AA is extending CLT-HNL. Instead of suspending in September, it'll suspend on January 3: https://onemileatatime.com/american-air ... lu-flight/

A few weeks ago, they increased CLT-HNL in May from 6x weekly to daily. Really cool to see this route move forward.

AA is drastically increasing BUR-PHX: https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... ier-avelo/

From August 16, it'll go from 4x daily CRJ-900s to 5x daily A319s, which seems to be in response to Avelo announcing BUR-AZA.
 
Ishrion
Topic Author
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:10 pm

AC4500 wrote:
Does anyone know when we'll see the tentative schedule update for June?


Could be this weekend.

March 2021 schedule | Updated on January 23
April 2021 schedule | Updated on February 13
May 2021 schedule | Updated on March 13
 
alasizon
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:29 pm

Ishrion wrote:

AA is drastically increasing BUR-PHX: https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... ier-avelo/

From August 16, it'll go from 4x daily CRJ-900s to 5x daily A319s, which seems to be in response to Avelo announcing BUR-AZA.


BUR has had on-again, off-again 319 service for the past year and a half or so anyhow so definitely a response to Avelo but also 1 or 2 of those frequencies are justified. It also likely is an effort to exert gating pressure on Avelo in BUR by making it harder for Avelo to find open room in Terminal A for expansion.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 214
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:40 pm

Ishrion wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Does anyone know when we'll see the tentative schedule update for June?


Could be this weekend.

March 2021 schedule | Updated on January 23
April 2021 schedule | Updated on February 13
May 2021 schedule | Updated on March 13


It may take longer. March saw a sudden increase in demand for forward bookings with the vaccine timelines. They need to figure out what to do with all of that capacity.
 
alasizon
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:49 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Does anyone know when we'll see the tentative schedule update for June?


Could be this weekend.

March 2021 schedule | Updated on January 23
April 2021 schedule | Updated on February 13
May 2021 schedule | Updated on March 13


It may take longer. March saw a sudden increase in demand for forward bookings with the vaccine timelines. They need to figure out what to do with all of that capacity.


The initial open-for-sale schedule has already been published internally- any increases will come through subsequent releases. That initial schedule should be open for sale this week.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 214
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:58 pm

alasizon wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Ishrion wrote:

Could be this weekend.

March 2021 schedule | Updated on January 23
April 2021 schedule | Updated on February 13
May 2021 schedule | Updated on March 13


It may take longer. March saw a sudden increase in demand for forward bookings with the vaccine timelines. They need to figure out what to do with all of that capacity.


The initial open-for-sale schedule has already been published internally- any increases will come through subsequent releases. That initial schedule should be open for sale this week.


What are some highlights from this initial schedule? Specifically, what will LAX look like? I know HND is completely gone through the summer, but what will come back domestically that is not in the May schedule?
 
User avatar
BA744PHX
Posts: 504
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:16 am

rjbesikof wrote:
alasizon wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

It may take longer. March saw a sudden increase in demand for forward bookings with the vaccine timelines. They need to figure out what to do with all of that capacity.


The initial open-for-sale schedule has already been published internally- any increases will come through subsequent releases. That initial schedule should be open for sale this week.


What are some highlights from this initial schedule? Specifically, what will LAX look like? I know HND is completely gone through the summer, but what will come back domestically that is not in the May schedule?


Schedule should be out tomorrow per OAG, granted there could be another.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:18 am

rjbesikof wrote:
alasizon wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

It may take longer. March saw a sudden increase in demand for forward bookings with the vaccine timelines. They need to figure out what to do with all of that capacity.


The initial open-for-sale schedule has already been published internally- any increases will come through subsequent releases. That initial schedule should be open for sale this week.


What are some highlights from this initial schedule? Specifically, what will LAX look like? I know HND is completely gone through the summer, but what will come back domestically that is not in the May schedule?

I could be wrong but I believe every mainline destination has come back with the exception of CMH, MSY, and IAD. CMH and MSY are apparently gone for good. SDF was also cut last year.

IAD apparently is still up in the air and its return is dependent on business travel. I still believe IAD-LAX will return eventually...I can't see AA only having 2 daily flights on WAS-LAX.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 763ER, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
CMHtraveler
Posts: 268
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:58 am

USAirALB wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
alasizon wrote:

The initial open-for-sale schedule has already been published internally- any increases will come through subsequent releases. That initial schedule should be open for sale this week.


What are some highlights from this initial schedule? Specifically, what will LAX look like? I know HND is completely gone through the summer, but what will come back domestically that is not in the May schedule?

I could be wrong but I believe every mainline destination has come back with the exception of CMH, MSY, and IAD. CMH and MSY are apparently gone for good. SDF was also cut last year.

IAD apparently is still up in the air and its return is dependent on business travel. I still believe IAD-LAX will return eventually...I can't see AA only having 2 daily flights on WAS-LAX.


Local bias I’m sure (doesn’t help that I used the flights often), but AA cutting CMH-LAX permanently is a head scratcher. Between AA and DL it was at 3x daily on mainline not too long ago. Both cut it permanently during the pandemic.

Last week NK saw the opportunity and announced CMH-LAX daily service beginning June 9. Though there will certainly be some passengers who choose to connect rather than fly NK, especially once business travel starts to recover, I have to think AA or DL will reconsider. It’s more likely once Asia traffic picks up again- CMH has a surprisingly high PDEW headed that way thanks to the big Honda plant here. Anyway, we will see what happens but I can’t imagine long term this route stays NK only. Based on the large FF base here, these are AA’s passengers to lose imho.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4244
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:45 am

CMHtraveler wrote:
Last week NK saw the opportunity and announced CMH-LAX daily service beginning June 9. Though there will certainly be some passengers who choose to connect rather than fly NK, especially once business travel starts to recover, I have to think AA or DL will reconsider. It’s more likely once Asia traffic picks up again- CMH has a surprisingly high PDEW headed that way thanks to the big Honda plant here. Anyway, we will see what happens but I can’t imagine long term this route stays NK only. Based on the large FF base here, these are AA’s passengers to lose imho.


AA does not need to maintain CMH-LAX nonstop service for Asia connections with AA still offering connections to Asia through its ORD and DFW hubs, including onto JL's ORD-TYO nonstop flights. DL also still offers connections to Asia from CMH through its MSP and DTW hubs.

There are also some AA FF's in the CMH market and JL FF's in Japan who would continue to choose AA/JL connecting options to TYO through other AA hubs over connecting options on DL, UA, or NH.

AA also still offers connections to Hawaii from CMH through its DFW, PHX, and ORD hubs, and AA also still offers connections onto QF's DFW-SYD flights from CMH.

There are also some AA FF's with elite status in both the CMH and LAX markets who would avoid NK, DL, WN, or UA whenever possible and who would connect through another AA hub instead of flying nonstop on NK.

The main reason for AA to re-add CMH-LAX nonstop service once demand recovers would be CMH-LAX O&D with AA still offering connections to Asia, Hawaii, Mexico, and Australia from CMH through other hubs.
 
CMHtraveler
Posts: 268
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:35 pm

jplatts wrote:
CMHtraveler wrote:
Last week NK saw the opportunity and announced CMH-LAX daily service beginning June 9. Though there will certainly be some passengers who choose to connect rather than fly NK, especially once business travel starts to recover, I have to think AA or DL will reconsider. It’s more likely once Asia traffic picks up again- CMH has a surprisingly high PDEW headed that way thanks to the big Honda plant here. Anyway, we will see what happens but I can’t imagine long term this route stays NK only. Based on the large FF base here, these are AA’s passengers to lose imho.


AA does not need to maintain CMH-LAX nonstop service for Asia connections with AA still offering connections to Asia through its ORD and DFW hubs, including onto JL's ORD-TYO nonstop flights. DL also still offers connections to Asia from CMH through its MSP and DTW hubs.

There are also some AA FF's in the CMH market and JL FF's in Japan who would continue to choose AA/JL connecting options to TYO through other AA hubs over connecting options on DL, UA, or NH.

AA also still offers connections to Hawaii from CMH through its DFW, PHX, and ORD hubs, and AA also still offers connections onto QF's DFW-SYD flights from CMH.

There are also some AA FF's with elite status in both the CMH and LAX markets who would avoid NK, DL, WN, or UA whenever possible and who would connect through another AA hub instead of flying nonstop on NK.

The main reason for AA to re-add CMH-LAX nonstop service once demand recovers would be CMH-LAX O&D with AA still offering connections to Asia, Hawaii, Mexico, and Australia from CMH through other hubs.


Valid points regarding Asia connections. I’m not privy to the O&D data but if CMH-PHX can support 3-4x daily flights on AA and WN mainline aircraft, even during the pandemic (and despite connections being available for both carriers at closer hubs), I’m quite sure LAX O&D can support more than 1x daily on a ULCC. I don’t understand why AA would cede this ground to NK when they’re so well established on the route, maybe yields were poor?
 
jplatts
Posts: 4244
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:21 pm

CMHtraveler wrote:
Valid points regarding Asia connections. I’m not privy to the O&D data but if CMH-PHX can support 3-4x daily flights on AA and WN mainline aircraft, even during the pandemic (and despite connections being available for both carriers at closer hubs), I’m quite sure LAX O&D can support more than 1x daily on a ULCC. I don’t understand why AA would cede this ground to NK when they’re so well established on the route, maybe yields were poor?


The PDEW of CMH-LAX was 323 passengers/day in Q3 2019 compared to a PDEW of only 197 passengers/day on CMH-PHX in Q3 2019.

One of the reasons why CMH-PHX has 3-4x daily flights on AA/WN mainline aircraft, despite CMH-PHX having less O&D than CMH-LAX, is that both AA and WN are offering connections to Southern California airports not served nonstop from CMH such as BUR, ONT, LGB, SNA, and SAN through PHX. Both AA and WN will also probably get more connecting passengers onto their PHX-LAX nonstop flights from CMH once demand recovers with neither airline serving LAX nonstop from CMH.

The PDEW of CMH-LAX was 109 passengers/day in Q3 2020, but almost 60% of the passengers traveling between CMH and LAX in Q3 2020 were connecting on airlines other than AA.

While AA might have been able to fill an A319 on CMH-LAX with the amount of demand that was there between CMH and LAX, AA was also likely facing other issues such as (a) a significant amount of the CMH-LAX demand being on other airlines during the COVID-19 pandemic and (b) lower yields on CMH-LAX than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most of the AA FF's in the CMH and LAX markets with AAdvantage elite status who would avoid other airlines such as NK, DL, UA, or WN whenever possible would also be willing to connect to LAX through ORD, DFW, or PHX on AA, even with nonstop options to LAX from the CMH/LCK market on other airlines.

The kind of customers that AA would be ceding to NK on the CMH-LAX nonstop route would be the O&D customers who are willing to travel to LAX on other airlines.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4862
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:15 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
Irehdna wrote:
dcajet wrote:

Correct, at the request of the government and in effect since last Monday, airlines have to reduce frequencies further to limit the number of travelers arriving in the country. I believe MIA is down to 5/week, DFW down to 1 and JFK suspended until May. Cargo flights on AA continue without restrictions. All pax flights from Braxil, Chile and Mexico are suspended due to the high number of new COVID cases there (Brazil is the new ground zero for the virus).

Couldn't have come at a worse time for AA. All the MIA flights were sold out due to Easter break.


What’s stopping AA from upgrading then DFW flight to 77W? Also on a separate note are the AR MCO/JFK flights eventually coming back? Was always curious how those flights did pre COVID.


The JFK flight, pre-COVID had its frequency cut by 2 to enable the EZE-MCO flight to operate (not enough aircraft). I doubt EZE-MCO will return any time soon. It was a leisure flight geared toward holiday traffic. That's not coming back for a long time. JFK held its own, but the departure time on the southbound segment was terrible, departing at 4:30pm and arriving at 5:00am. Surprised AR didn't move to T4 then or now, and co-locate with its SkyTeam partners once it resumes JFK. AA is the only one that seems to make JFK to EZE work. The route has operated almost consistently since the 1990s, and during the peak northern hemisphere winter holiday period, operate occasionally with a 77W for a few weeks at a time. AA carries a ton of cargo on JFK-EZE and it went out (pre-COVID) often full.


AR extended today the suspension of the EZE-JFK until at least October. Same fate for Rome FCO.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
jplatts
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:13 pm

Is there any possibility of AA adding nonstop service out of SEA to some non-AA hub domestic destinations such as AUS and BOS with AA having recently added some other p2p routes?
 
MaxTrimm
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:58 pm

jplatts wrote:
Is there any possibility of AA adding nonstop service out of SEA to some non-AA hub domestic destinations such as AUS and BOS with AA having recently added some other p2p routes?

Maybe. SEA-AUS has a lot of seats on it, to a lesser extent Boston. AA may or may not be bringing back JFK-SEA this Summer, and if that can’t work, I’m not so sure BOS will, either.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:04 pm

CMHtraveler wrote:
I’m quite sure LAX O&D can support more than 1x daily on a ULCC. I don’t understand why AA would cede this ground to NK when they’re so well established on the route, maybe yields were poor?


You have likely answered your own question. With business travel down and now NK on the route you can be sure yields are poor.
 
PHLspecial
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:09 pm

jplatts wrote:
Is there any possibility of AA adding nonstop service out of SEA to some non-AA hub domestic destinations such as AUS and BOS with AA having recently added some other p2p routes?

That's hard to say since AA has codeshares with AS to SEA and B6 BOS. Though I guess they would want it to be on there own metal.
 
usairways85
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:19 pm

Have not kept track if this was previously announced, but as part of the recent summer leisure route additions EDI and SNN are cancelled for S21.
 
miaami
Posts: 963
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:19 pm

jplatts wrote:
CMHtraveler wrote:
Valid points regarding Asia connections. I’m not privy to the O&D data but if CMH-PHX can support 3-4x daily flights on AA and WN mainline aircraft, even during the pandemic (and despite connections being available for both carriers at closer hubs), I’m quite sure LAX O&D can support more than 1x daily on a ULCC. I don’t understand why AA would cede this ground to NK when they’re so well established on the route, maybe yields were poor?


The PDEW of CMH-LAX was 323 passengers/day in Q3 2019 compared to a PDEW of only 197 passengers/day on CMH-PHX in Q3 2019.

One of the reasons why CMH-PHX has 3-4x daily flights on AA/WN mainline aircraft, despite CMH-PHX having less O&D than CMH-LAX, is that both AA and WN are offering connections to Southern California airports not served nonstop from CMH such as BUR, ONT, LGB, SNA, and SAN through PHX. Both AA and WN will also probably get more connecting passengers onto their PHX-LAX nonstop flights from CMH once demand recovers with neither airline serving LAX nonstop from CMH.

The PDEW of CMH-LAX was 109 passengers/day in Q3 2020, but almost 60% of the passengers traveling between CMH and LAX in Q3 2020 were connecting on airlines other than AA.

While AA might have been able to fill an A319 on CMH-LAX with the amount of demand that was there between CMH and LAX, AA was also likely facing other issues such as (a) a significant amount of the CMH-LAX demand being on other airlines during the COVID-19 pandemic and (b) lower yields on CMH-LAX than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.



Most of the AA FF's in the CMH and LAX markets with AAdvantage elite status who would avoid other airlines such as NK, DL, UA, or WN whenever possible would also be willing to connect to LAX through ORD, DFW, or PHX on AA, even with nonstop options to LAX from the CMH/LCK market on other airlines.

The kind of customers that AA would be ceding to NK on the CMH-LAX nonstop route would be the O&D customers who are willing to travel to LAX on other airlines.


If I remember right the majority of the pax on AAs nonstop from CMH-LAX were probably 80-90% [email protected] A few West Coast/ Hawaii connections and even fewer Asia/Australia connections. AA was planning on operating 2X daily pre-covid so the market is there. I don't think it will be too long before CMH-LAX is back with on AA or DL or both
 
CMHtraveler
Posts: 268
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:53 pm

miaami wrote:
jplatts wrote:
CMHtraveler wrote:
Valid points regarding Asia connections. I’m not privy to the O&D data but if CMH-PHX can support 3-4x daily flights on AA and WN mainline aircraft, even during the pandemic (and despite connections being available for both carriers at closer hubs), I’m quite sure LAX O&D can support more than 1x daily on a ULCC. I don’t understand why AA would cede this ground to NK when they’re so well established on the route, maybe yields were poor?


The PDEW of CMH-LAX was 323 passengers/day in Q3 2019 compared to a PDEW of only 197 passengers/day on CMH-PHX in Q3 2019.

One of the reasons why CMH-PHX has 3-4x daily flights on AA/WN mainline aircraft, despite CMH-PHX having less O&D than CMH-LAX, is that both AA and WN are offering connections to Southern California airports not served nonstop from CMH such as BUR, ONT, LGB, SNA, and SAN through PHX. Both AA and WN will also probably get more connecting passengers onto their PHX-LAX nonstop flights from CMH once demand recovers with neither airline serving LAX nonstop from CMH.

The PDEW of CMH-LAX was 109 passengers/day in Q3 2020, but almost 60% of the passengers traveling between CMH and LAX in Q3 2020 were connecting on airlines other than AA.

While AA might have been able to fill an A319 on CMH-LAX with the amount of demand that was there between CMH and LAX, AA was also likely facing other issues such as (a) a significant amount of the CMH-LAX demand being on other airlines during the COVID-19 pandemic and (b) lower yields on CMH-LAX than was the case prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.



Most of the AA FF's in the CMH and LAX markets with AAdvantage elite status who would avoid other airlines such as NK, DL, UA, or WN whenever possible would also be willing to connect to LAX through ORD, DFW, or PHX on AA, even with nonstop options to LAX from the CMH/LCK market on other airlines.

The kind of customers that AA would be ceding to NK on the CMH-LAX nonstop route would be the O&D customers who are willing to travel to LAX on other airlines.


If I remember right the majority of the pax on AAs nonstop from CMH-LAX were probably 80-90% [email protected] A few West Coast/ Hawaii connections and even fewer Asia/Australia connections. AA was planning on operating 2X daily pre-covid so the market is there. I don't think it will be too long before CMH-LAX is back with on AA or DL or both


I sure hope you’re right. Not looking forward to 4+ hours on the yellow bus...
 
AC4500
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:58 pm

jplatts wrote:
Is there any possibility of AA adding nonstop service out of SEA to some non-AA hub domestic destinations such as AUS and BOS with AA having recently added some other p2p routes?

It's certainly possible, but AA probably won't go for a very large domestic network in SEA. Why would they, when AS provides the all the feed they need. With that being said, the same questions were asked when AS and DL were partners and when DL turned SEA into a large hub, the partnership turned sour and subsequently fell apart. AS is more valuable for AA than they were for DL, so I don't think it would pan-out too well for AA if they decided to do this.

Also, there is probably not enough gate space at SEA for AA to add a significant amount of new domestic destinations, although I suppose they could cut back on their extremely overzealous DFW-SEA (10x daily) and ORD-SEA (6x daily) schedules in order to accommodate for new domestic destinations.
 
N292UX
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:02 pm

jplatts wrote:
Is there any possibility of AA adding nonstop service out of SEA to some non-AA hub domestic destinations such as AUS and BOS with AA having recently added some other p2p routes?

Assuming their long haul routes from SEA do start, I'd imagine a few, but not many. The SEA long haul flights are basically Alaska 787s in AA colors/flight numbers. Could I see them adding a few? Probably. Maybe BOS, LAS, SAN, SJC, and SFO. Maybe DCA too if they were to cut one of their perimeter flights, which would likely be one of the PHX/LAX flights. I don't see AA adding flights to medium/smaller sized markets out of SEA anytime soon due to the AS codeshare.
 
x1234
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:07 pm

NGO and KIX has been tried and failed. DTW-NGO only works on DL due to automotive ties. JL flies LAX-KIX and that's all the market can stand. UA also flies SFO-KIX.
 
jplatts
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:19 pm

N292UX wrote:
Assuming their long haul routes from SEA do start, I'd imagine a few, but not many. The SEA long haul flights are basically Alaska 787s in AA colors/flight numbers. Could I see them adding a few? Probably. Maybe BOS, LAS, SAN, SJC, and SFO. Maybe DCA too if they were to cut one of their perimeter flights, which would likely be one of the PHX/LAX flights.


AA does not need to serve DCA nonstop from SEA on its own metal with (a) AS already serving DCA nonstop from SEA, (b) AA already offering connections to the East Coast from SEA through its DFW, ORD, PHL, and CLT hubs, and (c) AA already offering connections onto its ORD-SEA nonstop flights from DCA.

AA also prefers to connect passengers to SEA from the East Coast via AA-operated CLT/ORD/DFW/PHL-SEA nonstop flights instead of AS's DCA-SEA nonstop flights.

N292UX wrote:
I don't see AA adding flights to medium/smaller sized markets out of SEA anytime soon due to the AS codeshare.


I agree with your point, especially with AS already offering connections onto AA flights to some domestic destinations not served by AS.
 
jplatts
Posts: 4244
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 14, 2021 9:34 pm

x1234 wrote:
NGO and KIX has been tried and failed. DTW-NGO only works on DL due to automotive ties.


AA/JL might be able to make NGO-SEA nonstop service work due to
(a) SEA being located in the northwest corner of the contiguous U.S.,
(b) significant Japanese population in Washington State, Oregon, and California,
(c) high-tech ties between Nagoya and the U.S. West Coast with Brother Industries being headquartered in Nagoya, and
(d) connections available onto AA/AS flights out of SEA to some other contiguous U.S. destinations, including to DFW (near Toyota's North American HQ in Plano), STL (near Toyota factory in Troy, MO), SAT (location of Toyota plant), SJC (major high-tech presence), and EWR (near Brother's North American headquarters in Bridgewater, NJ).
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4179
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:34 am

jplatts wrote:
x1234 wrote:
NGO and KIX has been tried and failed. DTW-NGO only works on DL due to automotive ties.


AA/JL might be able to make NGO-SEA nonstop service work due to
(a) SEA being located in the northwest corner of the contiguous U.S.,
(b) significant Japanese population in Washington State, Oregon, and California,
(c) high-tech ties between Nagoya and the U.S. West Coast with Brother Industries being headquartered in Nagoya, and
(d) connections available onto AA/AS flights out of SEA to some other contiguous U.S. destinations, including to DFW (near Toyota's North American HQ in Plano), STL (near Toyota factory in Troy, MO), SAT (location of Toyota plant), SJC (major high-tech presence), and EWR (near Brother's North American headquarters in Bridgewater, NJ).


SEA-NGO? Highly unlikely now and into the next 18-24 months.

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