Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
dcajet
Posts: 5101
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 18, 2021 10:44 pm

JohanTally wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
Right now anything Oct 7 and beyond is more or less a placeholder but things appear to be normalizing but business travellers have to return to justify INTL expansion.


Not entirely. EZE is unique in that it depends a lot less on business travel to work than you think. At the height of the pandemic once the MIA-EZE route resumed, on a 77W no less, it was going out 95-100% full. Part of that of course was the limited number of flights, but the demand is pretty strong year-round and generates equal parts demand and POS from the EZE and US origin. AA also has some structural advantages in EZE in that it has a crew base and other operations there that allow it to capture some lower costs. While Argentina's boom and bust cycles impact demand, for AA it is pretty much a constant with DFW-MIA, 2 and up to 3 x daily MIA-EZE in peak season, plus JFK in a normalized, non pandemic environment. UA and DL are far smaller players in this market.

I looked at the bookings you are right the MIA-EZE flights are almost all 90% full some even oversold. Also I noticed some days currently have two 77Ws scheduled and they are both full. So barring some substantial lockdown it looks like more capacity will be needed to EZE. However the DFW-EZE bookings were closer 60-75% for June and July


MIA-EZE has always been a money maker (same as EZE-MAD, the other top long haul route out of B.A), since the Pan Am and Braniff International days. Heck, PA used to fill a 747 every evening out of EZE (PA454) back in the 80s. There is no high/low season on the MIA route. It goes out full year round. JFK tends to be more reliant on the corporate side of the business.

Supposedly, or the so the rumor went, EZE, together with GRU and LHR, were the most profitable stations on AA´s international network.
 
asuflyer
Posts: 787
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2007 12:48 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 18, 2021 11:10 pm

Asian originating J pax are primarily used to flying airlines with much better onboard service, like KE, CX, JL and higher quality food and attention to detail as you stated AA does not really stand a chance nor does it have a great reputation in Japan or Korea. In China with CA, MU, CZ and HU, AA struggled on competing on price and with low yields pre-pandemic.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4875
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 12:46 am

MLIAA wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
jplatts wrote:

AA does not need to operate ORD-TYO nonstop service on its own metal with AA's partner JL already serving TYO nonstop from ORD along with AA being able to connect passengers onto JL's ORD-TYO nonstop flights from other Eastern U.S. destinations.

While AA hasn't yet started SEA-PVG nonstop service due to the COVID-19 pandemic, AA has plans to serve PVG nonstop from SEA due to the AA-AS partnership along with the connecting feed that AA would be getting onto SEA-PVG from AS flights to SEA and AA CLT/ORD/LAX/MIA/PHL/PHX-SEA flights.

AA's partner JL also offers connections to PEK, SHA, and PVG from ORD and LAX through TYO.


No one was arguing that AA needed to operate ORD-TYO butt he fact that that AA could not make the route work, even with a 787-8 illustrates the challenges AA has had with TPAC. The role of ORD in the AA network is very different now than it was pre-merger, but it remains a large one and yes, obviously, JL serves the market but still...

AA successfully moved LAX-PVG to SEA, but hasn't started the route yet, because of the pandemic, of course. Obviously, AA will benefit from AS feed at SEA for this route, but it remains to be seen just how successful it will be regardless. Absent AS, AA wouldn't have a shot and I am not sure it will pull as much traffic from its US hubs through SEA to PVG when the route does get up an running as much as it will pull from AS's SEA hub.



I’d argue that intense competition is the primary reason for AA’s struggles in Asia. In ORD they competed with Asia-powerhouse United and its partners plus Hainan and China Eastern, and LAX was even more of a bloodbath.

SEA is probably their best option, yes the AA connecting traffic will be limited BUT AA will route anything east of the Rockies through DFW, where it has been successful. West of the Rockies AS has a pretty good network and can feed that traffic in SEA. There will still be competition from DL but Delta is not exactly an Asia powerhouse either.


AA has not been able to make Asia work for decades. It's point-of-sale originating in Asia isn't great, even though it has strong partners in CX and JL. AA looked at Pan Am's TPAC route network in 1986 and opted to pass on buying it. Bob Crandall thought the network would be costly to operate and sustain and AA at the time, didn't have the fleet to make most of it work. It has tried several Japan routes outside of Tokyo once or twice from DFW, and they have not worked out. To China, AA has yet to develop much of a expanded partnership with China Southern, a move that was hindered (and continues to be) by the pandemic. JL is a strong partner but connections over TYO really aren't as valuable as they once were, as most of Asia's top business destinations are reached nonstop from somewhere in the US. AA arguably missed the boat on Asia, which, had they moved on it in 1986, would have landed them with a commanding presence similar to what they have in Latin America which emerged from 1990 onward with the acquisition of EA's route network to Latin America.

SEA is yes, their best option, and having AS as a partner in OW helps a lot. DL's TPAC route network is a distant second to UA's but has the legs of the old NW route network and sales strategy in the region.

The future of AA on TPAC will look something like this: DFW to China, Japan, Hong Kong, Seoul, and perhaps one additional Asian destination, SEA for PVG, HND, perhaps SIN, and who knows what will happen with BLR, LAX for Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
 
Cboyle
Posts: 164
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:32 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:10 pm

For the next NEA announcement (AA/B6), which routes do you anticipate being announced on the AA side?
 
Detroit313
Posts: 694
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 2:33 pm

Cboyle wrote:
For the next NEA announcement (AA/B6), which routes do you anticipate being announced on the AA side?


South Africa for sure.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2711
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:22 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Cboyle wrote:
For the next NEA announcement (AA/B6), which routes do you anticipate being announced on the AA side?


South Africa for sure.

Are AA’s 789s being upgraded to the same performance package that UA’s had to enable them to operate EWR-JNB? If not, I’m not sure if AA could profitability operate JFK-JNB with their current fleet. Now would be the perfect time to launch JFK-JNB IMO with SA’s future in limbo.

MIA might also be ideal to launch JNB. IIRC the South Florida area has the highest percentage of South African Americans in the US, although I’m not sure what the PDEW compares to NYC.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 989
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 3:27 pm

Cboyle wrote:
For the next NEA announcement (AA/B6), which routes do you anticipate being announced on the AA side?


TBH, none at this moment.
 
dfwking
Posts: 104
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:04 pm

USAirALB wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
Cboyle wrote:
For the next NEA announcement (AA/B6), which routes do you anticipate being announced on the AA side?


South Africa for sure.

Are AA’s 789s being upgraded to the same performance package that UA’s had to enable them to operate EWR-JNB? If not, I’m not sure if AA could profitability operate JFK-JNB with their current fleet. Now would be the perfect time to launch JFK-JNB IMO with SA’s future in limbo.

MIA might also be ideal to launch JNB. IIRC the South Florida area has the highest percentage of South African Americans in the US, although I’m not sure what the PDEW compares to NYC.



Just curious, what type of performance package does the UA 789s have. They have lower density, so perhaps the a/c is lighter?
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2711
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 4:19 pm

dfwking wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:

South Africa for sure.

Are AA’s 789s being upgraded to the same performance package that UA’s had to enable them to operate EWR-JNB? If not, I’m not sure if AA could profitability operate JFK-JNB with their current fleet. Now would be the perfect time to launch JFK-JNB IMO with SA’s future in limbo.

MIA might also be ideal to launch JNB. IIRC the South Florida area has the highest percentage of South African Americans in the US, although I’m not sure what the PDEW compares to NYC.



Just curious, what type of performance package does the UA 789s have. They have lower density, so perhaps the a/c is lighter?

IIRC they implemented a software update that included an improved fuel management system and a moderate thrust bump. I think only certain 789s have them now (essentially a subfleet) but UA plans to implement the update on the rest of the fleet.
 
asuflyer
Posts: 787
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2007 12:48 pm

AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:11 pm

Although the issue has been well known in the industry and on the forum that AA would have a difficult summer in regards to crewing flights, AA is now canceling hundreds of flights due to lack of crew availability. The cancellations primarily affect the 737 and 737MAX8 fleet.

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... of-pilots/
 
SRQLOT
Posts: 674
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:05 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:20 pm

We all knew this was coming, my flights for August just got moved around on AA, figures right after the announced Austin expansion. With Delta holiday issues, Southwest with their issues it’s going to me be a long summer for anyone traveling. Flightsare too packed to even be put on standby on something else. Other then my August trip into September I’m very weary of booking anything else until late fall. Plus I can’t really afford anything else right now lol.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6573
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 6:45 pm

The article annoys me

AA did what it had to do. Like the rest of the world, it is now scrambling.

If AA is at fault, it is for building a ridiculously ambitious schedule. But you cant fault them for retiring dozens of older planes and essentially flushing (and displacing) thousands of pilots that now need retraining
 
planecane
Posts: 1745
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:17 pm

This explains a change to an itinerary I have in August. Flying to/from FLL through DFW and the return leg was a 737-800 but was changed to an A321.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4357
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 7:58 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
The article annoys me

AA did what it had to do. Like the rest of the world, it is now scrambling.

If AA is at fault, it is for building a ridiculously ambitious schedule. But you cant fault them for retiring dozens of older planes and essentially flushing (and displacing) thousands of pilots that now need retraining


I agree. Most of that author's articles about AA are very sensationalistic. The reality is that AA is behind in pilot training so they are reducing the schedule for the next week or so. Most of the cancellations are being done well in advance.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1992
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 8:08 pm

Anyone know why EWR-PHX got cut after November? Is it a mistake? They just brought this route back in June.
 
alasizon
Posts: 3076
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 8:18 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Anyone know why EWR-PHX got cut after November? Is it a mistake? They just brought this route back in June.


Likely just hasn't been loaded, it was cut during COVID and so the carry-forward placeholder schedule doesn't have PHX-EWR in it.
 
User avatar
kngkyle
Posts: 525
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 3:33 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 8:31 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
But you cant fault them for retiring dozens of older planes and essentially flushing (and displacing) thousands of pilots that now need retraining


??? You can't fault them for making bad decisions? What the heck can you fault them for if not this?
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10988
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 8:54 pm

So if enough people put out that the travel rebound will be later rather than sooner can we really blame the humans who run the airlines for falling for the rhetoric or pessimistic assumptions of the various experts?
Perhaps the next time the panic sets in and they decide to throw money at the situation they will put in place more controls on how the money is spent? Since it is tax payers money I am not optimistic on that one.
 
kbmiflyer
Posts: 329
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 11:47 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:13 pm

Cancelling about 100 (not hundreds) flights today out of probably around 3,000 mainline flights . Certainly a problem but not nearly as large as Gary would like us to believe.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4875
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:22 pm

USAirALB wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
Cboyle wrote:
For the next NEA announcement (AA/B6), which routes do you anticipate being announced on the AA side?


South Africa for sure.

Are AA’s 789s being upgraded to the same performance package that UA’s had to enable them to operate EWR-JNB? If not, I’m not sure if AA could profitability operate JFK-JNB with their current fleet. Now would be the perfect time to launch JFK-JNB IMO with SA’s future in limbo.

MIA might also be ideal to launch JNB. IIRC the South Florida area has the highest percentage of South African Americans in the US, although I’m not sure what the PDEW compares to NYC.


Why? The NYC-JNB market probably can do with just one flight, and UA has it now that SAA has suspended its JFK-JNB route. Demand isn't likely to be all that strong. It's a long, thin route for AA, and likely not their focus. JFK is not a pilot or crew base for the 787 for AA. Commonality is key for AA at JFK, hence the 777 covering all long haul intercontinental missions.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8992
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:25 pm

There are labor challenges impacting almost every industry and business at the time.

Some simply due to the government paying more than the employer, but in other cases like AA the airlines and anything in the hospitality tourism and travel industry it’s simply the bullwhip effect.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6713
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 10:35 pm

Similar to DL on those holiday weekend, AA simply scheduled too many flights. Of course, DL has now cut its schedule down to 30% less than 2019, so they probably won't have this problem. AA is going to piss off a lot of people who are going to get their flights canceled and changed.

Also, I'd be curious if B6 and ULCCs will also have this problem in July and August, because they are running more capacity than 2019.
 
QF7
Posts: 33
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:42 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:49 pm

I was booked in August for the midnight red eye PDX-DFW, which has been a long-time flight. It was scheduled as a 737. I just got an email advising I’m changed to a 0550 departure on an A321.

Still, points for being proactive.
 
slowrambler
Posts: 155
Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:07 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sat Jun 19, 2021 11:56 pm

Schedule changes in June for flights in August is hardly a big deal.

I had an AUS-DFW cancelled on two days' notice this week, which was irritating but possible to deal with. But that's the sort of thing that will upset people if not handled well.
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 378
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jun 20, 2021 12:30 am

Is MIA-JNB/CPT doable with a 77W?
 
Sevensixtyseven
Posts: 267
Joined: Mon May 30, 2011 3:33 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jun 20, 2021 2:28 am

USAirALB wrote:
dfwking wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
Are AA’s 789s being upgraded to the same performance package that UA’s had to enable them to operate EWR-JNB? If not, I’m not sure if AA could profitability operate JFK-JNB with their current fleet. Now would be the perfect time to launch JFK-JNB IMO with SA’s future in limbo.

MIA might also be ideal to launch JNB. IIRC the South Florida area has the highest percentage of South African Americans in the US, although I’m not sure what the PDEW compares to NYC.



Just curious, what type of performance package does the UA 789s have. They have lower density, so perhaps the a/c is lighter?

IIRC they implemented a software update that included an improved fuel management system and a moderate thrust bump. I think only certain 789s have them now (essentially a subfleet) but UA plans to implement the update on the rest of the fleet.


All Polaris'd 789s *should* have the updates, and the non-Polaris fleet should get them as they get the new seats, per the UA 2020-2021 thread. It would be nice if AA did it for flexibility. UA has always tried to make the fleets more capable for flexibility instead of having to corral certain aircraft tails to certain places. For example, the whole 737 fleet is ETOPS. No chance to accidentally send a non-ETOPS bird to Hawaii (it's been done before), or send a non-sharklet A319 to TGU or some such (I don't think that's possible). It certainly shows in the differing management styles as well as the budget, some of the fleet decisions for uniformity are NOT cheap, so there's definitely a tradeoff to be made either way.
 
BBDFlyer
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2018 3:14 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:44 am

Jshank83 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Anyone know what is going on with AA478.

Second night in a row it diverted to STL. Supposed to be PHX-PHL.


EDIT: apparently it’s a refueling stop due to weight issues. I get it’s been really hot in PHX but I would think an A321 should have plenty of range for PHX-PHL even with lower fuel. But obviously I don’t really know. Interesting.

High temps in PHX. Runway performance is the limitation and you can either reduce passengers or reduce fuel. Pick one. If the runway was longer, then you can take both.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 4576
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:07 am

BBDFlyer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Anyone know what is going on with AA478.

Second night in a row it diverted to STL. Supposed to be PHX-PHL.


EDIT: apparently it’s a refueling stop due to weight issues. I get it’s been really hot in PHX but I would think an A321 should have plenty of range for PHX-PHL even with lower fuel. But obviously I don’t really know. Interesting.

High temps in PHX. Runway performance is the limitation and you can either reduce passengers or reduce fuel. Pick one. If the runway was longer, then you can take both.


I just didn’t realize an A321 on a route that length would have any fuel issues. I figure it could take a fair bit less than full and be fine. Doesn’t seem all that long. But shows what I know.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5727
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:26 am

Why did airlines even fire anyone since they wound up getting all the salaries insured by the gov
 
alasizon
Posts: 3076
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:31 am

32andBelow wrote:
Why did airlines even fire anyone since they wound up getting all the salaries insured by the gov


Only about 75% of salaries were covered by the PSP grants. It isn't the terminated/voluntary resignations that are causing the issues, rather displacements.
 
AAPramugari14
Posts: 28
Joined: Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:35 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:38 am

asuflyer wrote:
Although the issue has been well known in the industry and on the forum that AA would have a difficult summer in regards to crewing flights, AA is now canceling hundreds of flights due to lack of crew availability. The cancellations primarily affect the 737 and 737MAX8 fleet.

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... of-pilots/


This article is such an exaggeration of what the actual issue is. We're past 2019 numbers in terms of pax and flights and in a very short amount of time. Almost every airline in the US is dealing with the same issues There is a long line to get requalified and things cannot happen overnight. You also have to fly to stay current which didn't happen for many who were furloughed. Lets not even speak on the amount of people who moved from retired fleets to the current fleets. The next couple of weeks will be tight but things will right itself in due time.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5727
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:14 am

alasizon wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Why did airlines even fire anyone since they wound up getting all the salaries insured by the gov


Only about 75% of salaries were covered by the PSP grants. It isn't the terminated/voluntary resignations that are causing the issues, rather displacements.

Ah yah I knew displacing all the crews was gonna be dumb. They should have just left everyone qualified where they were. Unless they’re fleet was getting perm retired
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6573
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:05 am

32andBelow wrote:
alasizon wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Why did airlines even fire anyone since they wound up getting all the salaries insured by the gov


Only about 75% of salaries were covered by the PSP grants. It isn't the terminated/voluntary resignations that are causing the issues, rather displacements.

Ah yah I knew displacing all the crews was gonna be dumb. They should have just left everyone qualified where they were. Unless they’re fleet was getting perm retired



They cant do that.

Entire fleets were parked.

Those pilots then bid for new equipment and push the other guys out. It ends up being a system wide flush and rebid. The bottom guys without assignments are furloughed
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5241
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:08 am

AA is not wrong or at fault for retiring planes. They had too to do that to survive.

AA does have totally control over their scheduling however if they cant crew these planes they shouldn't have scheduled them or need to proactively re arrange schedules so customers have some notice. That's on them if they legit have more flights scheduled then crew
 
aileron1999
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Aug 02, 2015 4:57 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:26 pm

AAPramugari14 wrote:
asuflyer wrote:
Although the issue has been well known in the industry and on the forum that AA would have a difficult summer in regards to crewing flights, AA is now canceling hundreds of flights due to lack of crew availability. The cancellations primarily affect the 737 and 737MAX8 fleet.

https://viewfromthewing.com/american-ai ... of-pilots/


This article is such an exaggeration of what the actual issue is. We're past 2019 numbers in terms of pax and flights and in a very short amount of time. Almost every airline in the US is dealing with the same issues There is a long line to get requalified and things cannot happen overnight. You also have to fly to stay current which didn't happen for many who were furloughed. Lets not even speak on the amount of people who moved from retired fleets to the current fleets. The next couple of weeks will be tight but things will right itself in due time.



Passenger traffic is not anywhere near 2019 levels yet. We are still down about 25%. All of the issues you mentioned are well known and can be planned for. The fact is AA has scheduled more flights than they knew they could fly and their passengers are going to pay the price for poor planning.
 
PI4EVR
Posts: 199
Joined: Sat Jun 01, 2019 4:29 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 1:47 pm

A neighbor is a F/A and she's had 3 weeks of scheduled trips rearranged due to cancellations. At our hometown station TPA, they'd had at least one or two cancellations a day the last 2 weeks. A morning CLT-TPA-CLT turn, MIA-TPA, DCA and DFW an almost daily occurrence. She was flying last week and TPA had 3 cancellations that day, with almost 500 passengers to protect with every flight booked to capacity and little alternative available capacity to protect them on. Flights to/from FL are packed. She was a "must ride" deadhead but says the airport staff are beat up everyday with issues finding space to rebook.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5727
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 3:02 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
alasizon wrote:

Only about 75% of salaries were covered by the PSP grants. It isn't the terminated/voluntary resignations that are causing the issues, rather displacements.

Ah yah I knew displacing all the crews was gonna be dumb. They should have just left everyone qualified where they were. Unless they’re fleet was getting perm retired



They cant do that.

Entire fleets were parked.

Those pilots then bid for new equipment and push the other guys out. It ends up being a system wide flush and rebid. The bottom guys without assignments are furloughed

At the end of the day is retraining half your pilots twice going to be cheaper than just paying them minimum hours for a year with the government money? And they couldn’t even furlough anyone cus they got 3 bailouts.

Like at the beginning when delta was cancelling a220 flights cus of all the displacements. It was totally crazy
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6573
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:01 pm

32andBelow wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
Ah yah I knew displacing all the crews was gonna be dumb. They should have just left everyone qualified where they were. Unless they’re fleet was getting perm retired



They cant do that.

Entire fleets were parked.

Those pilots then bid for new equipment and push the other guys out. It ends up being a system wide flush and rebid. The bottom guys without assignments are furloughed

At the end of the day is retraining half your pilots twice going to be cheaper than just paying them minimum hours for a year with the government money? And they couldn’t even furlough anyone cus they got 3 bailouts.

Like at the beginning when delta was cancelling a220 flights cus of all the displacements. It was totally crazy


The Planes didn’t exist anymore. The positions just didn’t exist.

Triggers a displacement bid.

As for the bailouts they never knew how many they were going to get or when they were going to come through.

Pelosi told AA to hold off layoffs in October as a bailout was imminent. (AA furloughed anyway) That bailout was shrunken and passed in December.

It was a very messy year.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15362
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:16 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AA is not wrong or at fault for retiring planes. They had too to do that to survive.

AA does have totally control over their scheduling however if they cant crew these planes they shouldn't have scheduled them or need to proactively re arrange schedules so customers have some notice. That's on them if they legit have more flights scheduled then crew


I’m not sure AA ever built a schedule they didn’t believe they could fly. But the margins have got to be pretty thin, especially as far as training. Something like a sim going down for a few days that would be a non-issue in normal times might not be something AA can absorb right now.
 
448205
Posts: 2323
Joined: Mon May 02, 2016 4:55 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 4:17 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
The article annoys me

AA did what it had to do. Like the rest of the world, it is now scrambling.

If AA is at fault, it is for building a ridiculously ambitious schedule. But you cant fault them for retiring dozens of older planes and essentially flushing (and displacing) thousands of pilots that now need retraining



AA is 100% at fault.

Management was too proud to come to a non-furlough agreement for the pilots like United did.

All those pilots (around 2,000) went unqualled. Now they are paying for it.

It will take them most of the year to catch up.
 
TUSAA
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:20 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:08 pm

The pilot shortage is only half the problem. DFW is out of control with no manpower and infrastructure issues. Hundreds of agents and rampers have been hired over the last few months but many have already quit....too much work and abuse from passangers and too hot on the ramp. They can make more at Buc-ee's and be in the air condition. The problem now is there isn't that many business travelers mostly all VFR and family vacations and with that comes far more baggage than before along with more domestic widebodies which eat up too much manpower due to the massive amount of connecting baggage coming off them. Too many passengers arriving in the morning and their connecting flight doesn't leave for 3 or 4 hours...no room to store all those hundreds of bags. The bagroom belts can't keep up and the systems are always jammed up or shutting down. People are checking in for their mainline flights at the Envoy ticket counters at the E and B terminals due to shorter TSA lines, but Envoy isn't staffed to handle hundreds of bags that need to be taken over to A..C..and D. Many other manning issues due to LUS managers trying to run DFW like it's a America West spoke station.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 23088
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:09 pm

100 or 3000 flights, not a huge deal. Industry after industry is finding issues restarting. Unfortunately, one cannot just turn an economy back on.
AA will get the pilots trained (as will DL and others in the same bind).

If it takes a year, it takes a year to train all the pilots. The reality is money isn't free. This economy isn't even close to fully operational again and it will be a shock getting there (evictions, ceasing overly generous unemployment). But the good news is people are traveling again.

I'm happy fares are going up. :)

Lightsaber
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8992
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 5:50 pm

Exactly, I don’t think maybe people appreciate the challenges imposed on supply chains including labor and materials that were caused by the rapid shutdown and now the rapid reboot.

Anything that has lead times is out of synch currently with demand.

One of my customers currently is trying to run a plant and trying to fill over 500 vacant positions and currently running at absurd amounts of Overtime. They can’t even hire fast enough to keep up with attrition and people are quitting because they are getting burnt out. They can just walk into anywhere and get another job right now.

Wife and I went to a restaurant last night was shocked it was empty, was empty because they had no cook...on a summer Saturday.

It’s wild times out there and like said while restrictions are over, it’s going to take 12-24 months for the labor market and supply chains to recover from this bullwhip.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 12389
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:05 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The article annoys me

AA did what it had to do. Like the rest of the world, it is now scrambling.

If AA is at fault, it is for building a ridiculously ambitious schedule. But you cant fault them for retiring dozens of older planes and essentially flushing (and displacing) thousands of pilots that now need retraining



AA is 100% at fault.

Management was too proud to come to a non-furlough agreement for the pilots like United did.

All those pilots (around 2,000) went unqualled. Now they are paying for it.

It will take them most of the year to catch up.


You don’t seem to understand. Entire fleet types have been removed from the system. AA no longer flies any E190s, 757s, 767s, and A330s. What is AA suppose to do with the pilots who flew them- fire them? (They can’t do that). They are qualified on a plane AA doesn’t fly anymore.

So those pilots bid for other planes. But then those pilot rosters get over staffed, so the junior pilots on the other fleets have to go somewhere else, and so on until the most junior pilots get furloughed. Training can only train so many pilots at once (while also keeping current pilots qualified).

UA is least affected out of the US3 not because of the agreement they came up with their pilots but because they have retired fewer planes/fleet types than DL and AA.
 
alasizon
Posts: 3076
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:11 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Exactly, I don’t think maybe people appreciate the challenges imposed on supply chains including labor and materials that were caused by the rapid shutdown and now the rapid reboot.

Anything that has lead times is out of synch currently with demand.

One of my customers currently is trying to run a plant and trying to fill over 500 vacant positions and currently running at absurd amounts of Overtime. They can’t even hire fast enough to keep up with attrition and people are quitting because they are getting burnt out. They can just walk into anywhere and get another job right now.

Wife and I went to a restaurant last night was shocked it was empty, was empty because they had no cook...on a summer Saturday.

It’s wild times out there and like said while restrictions are over, it’s going to take 12-24 months for the labor market and supply chains to recover from this bullwhip.


Lead times for parts right now are killer - I have vendors that are out of stock until September for parts that we need to repair eGSE chargers; transmission parts for some of our bag tugs are seeing three week lead times. Pre-COVID, I could those same parts next-day or two-day. Heck, there was even a paint shortage to the point that Sherwin Williams was quoting 3-4 week lead times for common paints.

AA's issue is compounded by the fact that DFW has had pretty much twice weekly weather meltdowns burning a LOT of crew time and a lot of reserves across all bases. Combine that with a bad maintenance day and it just doesn't recover well.
 
IFlyOff
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu May 13, 2021 6:36 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:27 pm

TUSAA wrote:
The pilot shortage is only half the problem. DFW is out of control with no manpower and infrastructure issues. Hundreds of agents and rampers have been hired over the last few months but many have already quit....too much work and abuse from passangers and too hot on the ramp. They can make more at Buc-ee's and be in the air condition. The problem now is there isn't that many business travelers mostly all VFR and family vacations and with that comes far more baggage than before along with more domestic widebodies which eat up too much manpower due to the massive amount of connecting baggage coming off them. Too many passengers arriving in the morning and their connecting flight doesn't leave for 3 or 4 hours...no room to store all those hundreds of bags. The bagroom belts can't keep up and the systems are always jammed up or shutting down. People are checking in for their mainline flights at the Envoy ticket counters at the E and B terminals due to shorter TSA lines, but Envoy isn't staffed to handle hundreds of bags that need to be taken over to A..C..and D. Many other manning issues due to LUS managers trying to run DFW like it's a America West spoke station.



Under-staffing at airlines and other frontline jobs is the new post-COVID pandemic. Don't blame AA for what all airlines are gong through. United is paying a $500 bounty to employees if they recruit CS and ramp employees in DEN and they stay 6 months. Contract jobs and in house jobs are going unfilled. Airport restaurants and shops are operating reduced hours because they can't staff up. It's ugly everywhere. Summer of '21 has already and will be ugly for passengers and employees alike.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5727
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:40 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:


They cant do that.

Entire fleets were parked.

Those pilots then bid for new equipment and push the other guys out. It ends up being a system wide flush and rebid. The bottom guys without assignments are furloughed

At the end of the day is retraining half your pilots twice going to be cheaper than just paying them minimum hours for a year with the government money? And they couldn’t even furlough anyone cus they got 3 bailouts.

Like at the beginning when delta was cancelling a220 flights cus of all the displacements. It was totally crazy


The Planes didn’t exist anymore. The positions just didn’t exist.

Triggers a displacement bid.

As for the bailouts they never knew how many they were going to get or when they were going to come through.

Pelosi told AA to hold off layoffs in October as a bailout was imminent. (AA furloughed anyway) That bailout was shrunken and passed in December.

It was a very messy year.

I said to re train the retired fleets. But they should never have displaced people off of 737. The flip side was that if they didn’t get bailed out and if it didn’t recover they were going to go bankrupt anyways. Anyone could have foreseen that disqualifying people would have just bit them in the ass a year later, and here we are!
 
travaz
Posts: 1134
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 1:03 am

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 7:07 pm

Don't forget AA has to live with the CBA that dictates what happens with downgrades and reassignments ETC.

Last week I was going RNO-PHX on AA Eagle (sky west) and there was a 4 hour delay (this is at 1 PM) and the only thing open was a bar. There was no food available except chips and bagged bar snacks. Everyone was understaffed, I will say none of the many passengers got angry or upset so the whole scene was resigned patience, and screaming kids.
 
toga998
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon May 25, 2020 8:09 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:51 pm

Its summertime. Who wants to work when they can use their flight bennies and hit up the beach?
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 1800
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: AA Facing Summer Cancellations and Crewing Issues

Sun Jun 20, 2021 9:55 pm

ABC News Article is blaming SICK CALLS....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/a ... d=msedgntp

I can easily believe that this can be a factor, as well. They dumped the most junior people, leaving crews that have seniority benefits like days off, vacation time, etc. And they likely intend to use them. They do have families and rest needs, just like anyone else.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos