OlympicATH wrote:Ishrion wrote:rjbesikof wrote:
Do you think AA will launch CLT or DFW-ATH to take on DL ATL-ATH?
The largest market is indeed LAX by far. LAX-ATH had 70k pax both ways in 2019 and was the third busiest unserved route out of ATH, behind BOS (77k) and SYD (75k).
That being said, I don't see LAX-ATH happening anytime soon, given 1) it is a long route, 2) ATH is now very well served from the East Coast/ORD/ATL with loads of connection options, 3) LAX is not a transatlantic hub for any carrier (AA only flies LAX-LHR and I doubt ATH would be next on their list).
I think MIA-ATH is extremely unlikely. O&D is minuscule and MIA's transatlantic network largely relies on Latin American connections. ATH doesn't have a lot of ties/traffic with the region, unlike Spain/Italy/TLV (which AA flies to from MIA). The fact that both cities have large cruise ports doesn't mean there is traffic between them (the traffic is between the cruise port and its markets).
I would see DFW or CLT possible in the medium/long term, with the former probably more likely. DFW has AA's biggest transatlantic operation after PHL/JFK/ORD, it is a large population center with demand to Greece in its own right and it will serve Texas/the West which do not have a link to ATH currently. That being said, I would expect AA to launch BCN from DFW before ATH.
CLT less relevant in my view, especially now that DL reinstated ATL-ATH.
The LAX demand to ATH, whatever the numbers are, can and would be fulfilled with a DFW-ATH route, however unlikely it would be to be added. ATH is the hot destination of 2021 because it, along with Iceland, was among the first two European countries to reopen to US travelers with few restrictions and a relatively painless process to enter. DFW is a major gateway/through way for West Coast to Europe + other international traffic. Greece is of course a huge summer destination in normal times, both for cruise and non-cruise traffic, but I don't see a DFW-ATH route being opened up in the next year. The ORD and JFK routes have to be given a chance to mature, and both ORD + PHL will be more than enough to cover connections. JFK is more O&D with some connectivity as well. LAX-ATH is a very long, very thin route, and not sure a 777-200ER has the legs for it, thus requiring a 77W or 787 and likely not the best use of a 77W the way AA has them configured for what is a leisure heavy market.
I don't see CLT-ATH either. CLT-ATH would simply siphon from PHL and maybe even ORD and isn't necessary, just because ATL-ATH exists. MIA-ATH is also highly unlikely. The cruise and maritime industries on both ends are not really going to be enough to tap into really meaningful business demand. AA can simply start JFK or PHL earlier in the season to help position staff for those industries and similarly, extend the routes to October to cover the returns. A lot of that staff repositions on the ships themselves.
What I do see is UA adding a third route to ATH, either going double daily at EWR or perhaps ORD, which, on a 787-8 seems about right.