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washingtonflyer
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Sep 08, 2013 9:45 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 12:41 pm

There is all of one lounge open in T3 - one BA lounge. I hear its not the largest, and there is no separate Galleries first lounge in T3. Galleries south AND Galleries north are now both open in T5.
 
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DLHAM
Posts: 652
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:10 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:41 pm

N292UX wrote:
For the XLR out of PHL, I'm guessing MAN, BRU, DUS, NCE, GLA, OPO, HEL, and CPH will be some of the first routes. I also see WAW, VIE, BHX, ARN, OSL, HAM, GVA, and NAP being launched later on and markets like AGP, TFS, SVQ, MRS, PMI, and TLS could be potential dark horses. However, a lot of this is dependent on how committed AA is to making PHL a huge TATL hub.

As for the possibility of AA launching DOH, I do think it happens eventually, and it will most likely be from DFW. If it's not from DFW, I am going to go super bold and say it will be from CLT.


Regarding (new) Destinations from Philadelphia on the XLR I think we have to look what Destinations Continental added with 757s from Newark during/around the 2000s (in chronological order):

Birmingham
Oslo
Edinburgh (already served)
Bristol
Belfast
Stockholm
Hamburg
Berlin
Barcelona (already served)
Copenhagen
Cologne
Stuttgart
Newcastle (started by United)

Maybe one or two will not come with AA, with 3-4 another ones instead but this should give us an Idea!

I would add as potential Destinations:

Düsseldorf (instead of Cologne)
Nice
Geneva
Prague
Warzaw
Helsinki
Lyons

And the big advantage of American will be that they will get their first XLRs more than a year before their main "XLR-competitor" flooding Secondary Markets which is United. I think they will have almost or even half their XLR delivered before United get their first one.
 
dcajet
Posts: 5062
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:53 pm

Frequency cuts in American's Latin network this summer (*)

Montevideo – Miami will drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly.
Rio – JFK and Miami both drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly.
Santiago – DFW and JFK both drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly.
Sao Paulo – DFW will drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly. Miami will drop from 2x to 1x daily.

Guess it was not the right time to start JFK.-SCL. MVD keeps getting hammered.

(*) Southern summer
 
alasizon
Posts: 3054
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:18 pm

onwFan wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Looks like AA's strategy for Europe will be to funnel all but core markets (like AMS, CDG, MAD, BCN, FRA) through LHR:
1) DFW-LHR goes from 1 to 2 daily in November (this one I checked).
2) FCO decimated completely for W21 (https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1426945937864286212).

I think there are a lot of misfiles, especially for the first two weeks in Nov. Many routes are jumbled up, getting removed from one hub and appearing in another, then reverting back mid Nov.

But it looks like AA may be finally preparing for year-round DFW-AMS in addition to CDG, probably in response to AF’s CDG-DFW and KL’s AMS-AUS launches. AA’s response in S19 was to fly DFW-CDG 2x daily; so flying DFW-AMS year round is better. MIA-CDG is also going 2x daily in Jan/Feb in response to AF increasing frequencies in W21.


AA has only filed Nov 1H, still pending the slot waiver in JFK more or less (JFK is the only one I think that we will see extend the waiver, DCA/LGA may reduce down to 66% or something similar but I don't see a full waiver).
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9990
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:27 pm

DLHAM wrote:
N292UX wrote:
For the XLR out of PHL, I'm guessing MAN, BRU, DUS, NCE, GLA, OPO, HEL, and CPH will be some of the first routes. I also see WAW, VIE, BHX, ARN, OSL, HAM, GVA, and NAP being launched later on and markets like AGP, TFS, SVQ, MRS, PMI, and TLS could be potential dark horses. However, a lot of this is dependent on how committed AA is to making PHL a huge TATL hub.

As for the possibility of AA launching DOH, I do think it happens eventually, and it will most likely be from DFW. If it's not from DFW, I am going to go super bold and say it will be from CLT.


Regarding (new) Destinations from Philadelphia on the XLR I think we have to look what Destinations Continental added with 757s from Newark during/around the 2000s (in chronological order):

Birmingham
Oslo
Edinburgh (already served)
Bristol
Belfast
Stockholm
Hamburg
Berlin
Barcelona (already served)
Copenhagen
Cologne
Stuttgart
Newcastle (started by United)

Maybe one or two will not come with AA, with 3-4 another ones instead but this should give us an Idea!

I would add as potential Destinations:

Düsseldorf (instead of Cologne)
Nice
Geneva
Prague
Warzaw
Helsinki
Lyons

And the big advantage of American will be that they will get their first XLRs more than a year before their main "XLR-competitor" flooding Secondary Markets which is United. I think they will have almost or even half their XLR delivered before United get their first one.


PHL doesn't have anything like the NYC O&D that supported those CO flights out of EWR, so effectively it's one-stop service XXX-PHL-NCE/PRG etc., competing with all the other 1-stops XXX-CDG/AMS/FRA/LHR-YYY. IMHO, it will be a very small subset of those flights that gets launched (and prove sustainable).
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4322
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:42 pm

dcajet wrote:
Frequency cuts in American's Latin network this summer (*)

Montevideo – Miami will drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly.
Rio – JFK and Miami both drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly.
Santiago – DFW and JFK both drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly.
Sao Paulo – DFW will drop from as high as 1x daily to 3x weekly. Miami will drop from 2x to 1x daily.

Guess it was not the right time to start JFK.-SCL. MVD keeps getting hammered.

(*) Southern summer


To be fair, SCL was initially only going to be 3x weekly but AA added additional winter frequencies shortly after being announced. I noticed AA started codesharing on G3's recently relaunched GRU-MVD flight this week so maybe having daily MVD flights is not as important now especially since it looks like the country will be locking down again soon.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 773
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 5:59 pm

AA is cutting 11% of the planned Winter international flying due to B787 delivery issues and using the aircraft currently here primarily in Mexico and Caribbean this winter.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3480
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 6:20 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
N292UX wrote:
For the XLR out of PHL, I'm guessing MAN, BRU, DUS, NCE, GLA, OPO, HEL, and CPH will be some of the first routes. I also see WAW, VIE, BHX, ARN, OSL, HAM, GVA, and NAP being launched later on and markets like AGP, TFS, SVQ, MRS, PMI, and TLS could be potential dark horses. However, a lot of this is dependent on how committed AA is to making PHL a huge TATL hub.

As for the possibility of AA launching DOH, I do think it happens eventually, and it will most likely be from DFW. If it's not from DFW, I am going to go super bold and say it will be from CLT.


Regarding (new) Destinations from Philadelphia on the XLR I think we have to look what Destinations Continental added with 757s from Newark during/around the 2000s (in chronological order):

Birmingham
Oslo
Edinburgh (already served)
Bristol
Belfast
Stockholm
Hamburg
Berlin
Barcelona (already served)
Copenhagen
Cologne
Stuttgart
Newcastle (started by United)

Maybe one or two will not come with AA, with 3-4 another ones instead but this should give us an Idea!

I would add as potential Destinations:

Düsseldorf (instead of Cologne)
Nice
Geneva
Prague
Warzaw
Helsinki
Lyons

And the big advantage of American will be that they will get their first XLRs more than a year before their main "XLR-competitor" flooding Secondary Markets which is United. I think they will have almost or even half their XLR delivered before United get their first one.


PHL doesn't have anything like the NYC O&D that supported those CO flights out of EWR, so effectively it's one-stop service XXX-PHL-NCE/PRG etc., competing with all the other 1-stops XXX-CDG/AMS/FRA/LHR-YYY. IMHO, it will be a very small subset of those flights that gets launched (and prove sustainable).


:checkmark: Definitely agree. It's fun to dream big, but I don't see even a quarter of these happening (at least not from Philly) in the long run. For starters, I don't think AA will have anywhere near as many secondary UK destinations as CO/UA did, in no small part because of the dynamic of having BA as a joint business partner and being very London-centric. MAN, sure. BRS, definitely not. Similar story with Ireland - let's see if SNN even comes back before considering BFS...

PHL will remain a sizeable TATL hub going forward, but its real strength in AA's network is connecting smaller U.S. destinations that don't have JFK service (think GRR, DAY, LEX, TYS, GSP, MDT, etc.) to high-volume European destinations. More niche TATL destinations are probably better connected to JFK in the new paradigm, with much larger O&D and plenty of ability to get connections (both own metal and B6) from other large U.S. destinations such as SFO, LAX, DFW, ORD, and MIA.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4322
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:36 pm

FSDan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

Regarding (new) Destinations from Philadelphia on the XLR I think we have to look what Destinations Continental added with 757s from Newark during/around the 2000s (in chronological order):

Birmingham
Oslo
Edinburgh (already served)
Bristol
Belfast
Stockholm
Hamburg
Berlin
Barcelona (already served)
Copenhagen
Cologne
Stuttgart
Newcastle (started by United)

Maybe one or two will not come with AA, with 3-4 another ones instead but this should give us an Idea!

I would add as potential Destinations:

Düsseldorf (instead of Cologne)
Nice
Geneva
Prague
Warzaw
Helsinki
Lyons

And the big advantage of American will be that they will get their first XLRs more than a year before their main "XLR-competitor" flooding Secondary Markets which is United. I think they will have almost or even half their XLR delivered before United get their first one.


PHL doesn't have anything like the NYC O&D that supported those CO flights out of EWR, so effectively it's one-stop service XXX-PHL-NCE/PRG etc., competing with all the other 1-stops XXX-CDG/AMS/FRA/LHR-YYY. IMHO, it will be a very small subset of those flights that gets launched (and prove sustainable).


:checkmark: Definitely agree. It's fun to dream big, but I don't see even a quarter of these happening (at least not from Philly) in the long run. For starters, I don't think AA will have anywhere near as many secondary UK destinations as CO/UA did, in no small part because of the dynamic of having BA as a joint business partner and being very London-centric. MAN, sure. BRS, definitely not. Similar story with Ireland - let's see if SNN even comes back before considering BFS...

PHL will remain a sizeable TATL hub going forward, but its real strength in AA's network is connecting smaller U.S. destinations that don't have JFK service (think GRR, DAY, LEX, TYS, GSP, MDT, etc.) to high-volume European destinations. More niche TATL destinations are probably better connected to JFK in the new paradigm, with much larger O&D and plenty of ability to get connections (both own metal and B6) from other large U.S. destinations such as SFO, LAX, DFW, ORD, and MIA.


I think PHL will get some niche destinations.

I think MAN will come back with an XLR.
I think SNN and KEF will return with 321neo's.
I think GLA and BHX are possibilities just because of the BA ties and the lack of other TATL service.
AA has publicly mentioned PHL-BSL as a potential route due to Pharma ties.
Others:
PHL-PDL (321neo)
PHL-RAI (321neo)
PHL-CMN
PHL-OSL
PHL-DUS
PHL-VIE
PHL-TLS
PHL-GOH (321neo)
PHL-AGP
 
FSDan
Posts: 3480
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:48 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
FSDan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

PHL doesn't have anything like the NYC O&D that supported those CO flights out of EWR, so effectively it's one-stop service XXX-PHL-NCE/PRG etc., competing with all the other 1-stops XXX-CDG/AMS/FRA/LHR-YYY. IMHO, it will be a very small subset of those flights that gets launched (and prove sustainable).


:checkmark: Definitely agree. It's fun to dream big, but I don't see even a quarter of these happening (at least not from Philly) in the long run. For starters, I don't think AA will have anywhere near as many secondary UK destinations as CO/UA did, in no small part because of the dynamic of having BA as a joint business partner and being very London-centric. MAN, sure. BRS, definitely not. Similar story with Ireland - let's see if SNN even comes back before considering BFS...

PHL will remain a sizeable TATL hub going forward, but its real strength in AA's network is connecting smaller U.S. destinations that don't have JFK service (think GRR, DAY, LEX, TYS, GSP, MDT, etc.) to high-volume European destinations. More niche TATL destinations are probably better connected to JFK in the new paradigm, with much larger O&D and plenty of ability to get connections (both own metal and B6) from other large U.S. destinations such as SFO, LAX, DFW, ORD, and MIA.


I think PHL will get some niche destinations.

I think MAN will come back with an XLR.
I think SNN and KEF will return with 321neo's.
I think GLA and BHX are possibilities just because of the BA ties and the lack of other TATL service.
AA has publicly mentioned PHL-BSL as a potential route due to Pharma ties.
Others:
PHL-PDL (321neo)
PHL-RAI (321neo)
PHL-CMN
PHL-OSL
PHL-DUS
PHL-VIE
PHL-TLS
PHL-GOH (321neo)
PHL-AGP


Agree with you on PHL-MAN, but that's about it. Maybe SNN or KEF will come back. I think the rest are long shots.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4260
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 16, 2021 7:54 pm

AA's TA short/mid term strategy is anyone's guess at this point. They have seemingly taken a 180 since before COVID. Who knows how long the (re)newed emphasis on OW partners (LHR) lasts. It could last until S22 or it could last another 5 years.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:14 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
PHL-GOH (321neo)


GOH? Or do you mean GOT?
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1965
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:19 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
FSDan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

PHL doesn't have anything like the NYC O&D that supported those CO flights out of EWR, so effectively it's one-stop service XXX-PHL-NCE/PRG etc., competing with all the other 1-stops XXX-CDG/AMS/FRA/LHR-YYY. IMHO, it will be a very small subset of those flights that gets launched (and prove sustainable).


:checkmark: Definitely agree. It's fun to dream big, but I don't see even a quarter of these happening (at least not from Philly) in the long run. For starters, I don't think AA will have anywhere near as many secondary UK destinations as CO/UA did, in no small part because of the dynamic of having BA as a joint business partner and being very London-centric. MAN, sure. BRS, definitely not. Similar story with Ireland - let's see if SNN even comes back before considering BFS...

PHL will remain a sizeable TATL hub going forward, but its real strength in AA's network is connecting smaller U.S. destinations that don't have JFK service (think GRR, DAY, LEX, TYS, GSP, MDT, etc.) to high-volume European destinations. More niche TATL destinations are probably better connected to JFK in the new paradigm, with much larger O&D and plenty of ability to get connections (both own metal and B6) from other large U.S. destinations such as SFO, LAX, DFW, ORD, and MIA.


I think PHL will get some niche destinations.

I think MAN will come back with an XLR.
I think SNN and KEF will return with 321neo's.
I think GLA and BHX are possibilities just because of the BA ties and the lack of other TATL service.
AA has publicly mentioned PHL-BSL as a potential route due to Pharma ties.
Others:
PHL-PDL (321neo)
PHL-RAI (321neo)
PHL-CMN
PHL-OSL
PHL-DUS
PHL-VIE
PHL-TLS
PHL-GOH (321neo)
PHL-AGP


I’m good add OPO, NAP and MXP to this list.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4322
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:29 pm

DLHAM wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
PHL-GOH (321neo)


GOH? Or do you mean GOT?


No I meant Greenland. It is not a big market but that is in large part because of the lack of infrastructure and reasonable flights to the US.
 
FSDan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:47 am

usflyer msp wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
PHL-GOH (321neo)


GOH? Or do you mean GOT?


No I meant Greenland. It is not a big market but that is in large part because of the lack of infrastructure and reasonable flights to the US.


When AA starts PHL-Greenland, you will certainly have full rights to brag about being the only person on this forum to predict it...
 
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spinotter
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:34 am

FSDan wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

GOH? Or do you mean GOT?


No I meant Greenland. It is not a big market but that is in large part because of the lack of infrastructure and reasonable flights to the US.


When AA starts PHL-Greenland, you will certainly have full rights to brag about being the only person on this forum to predict it...


I wonder if the GOH poster really did mean GOT and now is brazening it out? That would be amusing. Or, with climate change, maybe the glaciers are melting faster than expected. But on a serious note, is there sufficient tourist infrastructure for even one A320 worth of passengers anywhere in Greenland?
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4322
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:15 am

spinotter wrote:
FSDan wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

No I meant Greenland. It is not a big market but that is in large part because of the lack of infrastructure and reasonable flights to the US.


When AA starts PHL-Greenland, you will certainly have full rights to brag about being the only person on this forum to predict it...


I wonder if the GOH poster really did mean GOT and now is brazening it out? That would be amusing. Or, with climate change, maybe the glaciers are melting faster than expected. But on a serious note, is there sufficient tourist infrastructure for even one A320 worth of passengers anywhere in Greenland?


No I actually really meant GOH.
PHL-GOH is less than 2000 miles; AA could do it with an A319.
Greenland is an up and coming tourism destination. It is just a pain to get there from the US.
You basically have to buy a ticket to CPH or KEF and then buy another extremely expensive ticket from CPH/KEF to GOH. KEF-GOH is over 1000 RT by itself.
Greenland is remote and expensive once you get there but the extreme cost and time of getting there from the US is what really depresses the tourism numbers.
Greenland saw a little more than 3000 US visitors in summer 2019; I figure they could double or triple that with a convenient 2-3x weekly flight.
 
PITFlyer330
Posts: 154
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:41 am

sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 219
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:47 am

usflyer msp wrote:
No I actually really meant GOH.
PHL-GOH is less than 2000 miles; AA could do it with an A319.
Greenland is an up and coming tourism destination. It is just a pain to get there from the US.
You basically have to buy a ticket to CPH or KEF and then buy another extremely expensive ticket from CPH/KEF to GOH. KEF-GOH is over 1000 RT by itself.
Greenland is remote and expensive once you get there but the extreme cost and time of getting there from the US is what really depresses the tourism numbers.
Greenland saw a little more than 3000 US visitors in summer 2019; I figure they could double or triple that with a convenient 2-3x weekly flight.

I admire that you have rationale for your atypical suggestion; I also don't think this will have any chance of ever happening.

I think the main issue with Greenland (and there are a lot) is that if you're flying long- or even medium-haul, you need to be able to fly somewhere that is a very large O&D market, because demand will basically always be an issue. PHL completely skips the NYC metro.

Another issue is that these flights would be very cargo-intensive. Passenger sales will not always break even, much less turn a profit. That's where cargo steps in to offset the losses made by pax transportation. You simply cannot do any heavy cargo lifting with a 321neo relative to what you could do using a widebody. Ever wonder why Air Greenland operates an A330, and even after the launch of the XLR, still went for the A339 despite it being bigger and thus harder to fill? A large chunk of the reason is cargo transport. Greenland is isolated and an aircraft with the cargo-carrying capacity of a widebody is ideal.

The final significant issue I see with these flights is something I touched on earlier - I do not think pax sales will make this profitable. And AA would most definitely not fly a widebody to Greenland, so there is little to no cargo profit that offsets pax losses. This is the exact reason why I believe that any long-haul/non-regional flights to Greenland would only be done by the national carrier, not anyone else. The national carrier is likely the only entity that would have the means and/or reason to be so invested in maintaining air links that likely aren't very profitable, if at all. I think one other important conclusion to draw is that Greenland is not Iceland 2.0, at least not yet.

Also, one more obvious thing that you may not have considered is that perhaps flights to Greenland are expensive for a reason. Think about its remoteness and relative lack of infrastructure, operational challenges, etc. Still, all of these additional cons/challenges that come with serving Greenland pale in comparison to the core issues facing viability, or lack thereof, of the proposed route... just my 2 cents.

This is not to say that Greenland will always remain so "isolated" air-traffic wise. I'm sure Air Greenland will eventually fly to NYC, perhaps a couple freqs weekly and summer-seasonal. But again, that's simply an expansion of the national carrier, which has the patience, means, and reason to actually start these flights... for the other airlines, like AA for example, who can't even make some decent-sized South American VFR markets work when S.A. is their strong suit, there is really no upside at all to starting routes like this. Maybe just bragging rights and the ability to put up a poster saying "Only U.S. Airline to Fly to Greenland." Not going to happen.

Edited for clarity
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 10:37 am

PITFlyer330 wrote:
sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:


How or let me rephrase why would AA do any long haul out of PIT? In addition, what makes you think AUS can sustain GRU, MAD flights?
 
9w748capt
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Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:20 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
PITFlyer330 wrote:
sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:


How or let me rephrase why would AA do any long haul out of PIT? In addition, what makes you think AUS can sustain GRU, MAD flights?


Well, AUS does (did?) have LHR and now AMS. So MAD isn't terribly illogical. No idea about GRU though - is there a large Brazilian community in AUS?
 
MLIAA
Posts: 281
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:42 pm

PITFlyer330 wrote:
sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:


If Austin were to get MAD, it would be on IB. Same principle for CDG with AF. AA has a massive hub right up the road, and while I could see some domestic and Caribbean for Austin making sense long term, I don’t see it for AA in long haul from Austin.

Having said that, I think JL service to NRT or HND could be expected at some point, NH could do it as well.

As for PIT, they (usually) have BA service to LHR, that’s probably all they’re going to see TATL for a while.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 1:49 pm

PITFlyer330 wrote:
sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:


PIT almost certainly not. AUS, unlikely to any of those. GRU for sure not. CDG and MAD? I can see AF going into AUS before AA from CDG, but KL already flies AUS-AMS and perhaps AF/KL would likely not want to cannibalize each other's route. AUS-MAD would be a mostly leisure market and it will take years before secondary and tertiary routes like this on TATL will come back, A321XLR or not.
 
GuillaumePhilly
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:04 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
Ever wonder why Air Greenland operates an A330, and even after the launch of the XLR, still went for the A339 despite it being bigger and thus harder to fill? A large chunk of the reason is cargo transport. Greenland is isolated and an aircraft with the cargo-carrying capacity of a widebody is ideal.


Minor correction-- Air Greenland is one of the few customers for the 330-800, ie: the "332neo". They currently operate the 332. The 339 is a 333 replacement. IIRC Air Greenland went with the 338 because they didn't need the passenger capacity of the 339, and the 338 provides the cargo lift they primarily need the plane for.
 
sagechan
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Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 6:14 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:06 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
No I actually really meant GOH.
PHL-GOH is less than 2000 miles; AA could do it with an A319.
Greenland is an up and coming tourism destination. It is just a pain to get there from the US.
You basically have to buy a ticket to CPH or KEF and then buy another extremely expensive ticket from CPH/KEF to GOH. KEF-GOH is over 1000 RT by itself.
Greenland is remote and expensive once you get there but the extreme cost and time of getting there from the US is what really depresses the tourism numbers.
Greenland saw a little more than 3000 US visitors in summer 2019; I figure they could double or triple that with a convenient 2-3x weekly flight.

I admire that you have rationale for your atypical suggestion; I also don't think this will have any chance of ever happening.

I think the main issue with Greenland (and there are a lot) is that if you're flying long- or even medium-haul, you need to be able to fly somewhere that is a very large O&D market, because demand will basically always be an issue. PHL completely skips the NYC metro.

Another issue is that these flights would be very cargo-intensive. Passenger sales will not always break even, much less turn a profit. That's where cargo steps in to offset the losses made by pax transportation. You simply cannot do any heavy cargo lifting with a 321neo relative to what you could do using a widebody. Ever wonder why Air Greenland operates an A330, and even after the launch of the XLR, still went for the A339 despite it being bigger and thus harder to fill? A large chunk of the reason is cargo transport. Greenland is isolated and an aircraft with the cargo-carrying capacity of a widebody is ideal.

The final significant issue I see with these flights is something I touched on earlier - I do not think pax sales will make this profitable. And AA would most definitely not fly a widebody to Greenland, so there is little to no cargo profit that offsets pax losses. This is the exact reason why I believe that any long-haul/non-regional flights to Greenland would only be done by the national carrier, not anyone else. The national carrier is likely the only entity that would have the means and/or reason to be so invested in maintaining air links that likely aren't very profitable, if at all. I think one other important conclusion to draw is that Greenland is not Iceland 2.0, at least not yet.

Also, one more obvious thing that you may not have considered is that perhaps flights to Greenland are expensive for a reason. Think about its remoteness and relative lack of infrastructure, operational challenges, etc. Still, all of these additional cons/challenges that come with serving Greenland pale in comparison to the core issues facing viability, or lack thereof, of the proposed route... just my 2 cents.

This is not to say that Greenland will always remain so "isolated" air-traffic wise. I'm sure Air Greenland will eventually fly to NYC, perhaps a couple freqs weekly and summer-seasonal. But again, that's simply an expansion of the national carrier, which has the patience, means, and reason to actually start these flights... for the other airlines, like AA for example, who can't even make some decent-sized South American VFR markets work when S.A. is their strong suit, there is really no upside at all to starting routes like this. Maybe just bragging rights and the ability to put up a poster saying "Only U.S. Airline to Fly to Greenland." Not going to happen.

Edited for clarity


While I agree that Greenland is a very long shot, I wouldn't agree with this reasoning. The main reason it's a long shot is it has low demand overall (afreinf with your 3rd point). First the US passenger carriers aren't as reliant on specific origin O&D for long haul flights, as the hubs are generally based in larger US cities with lots of feed. While Philly does suffer leakage to NYC, PHL is still the 6th largest city in the US and for unique destinations can pull from NYC itself. In normal times cargo revenue is low single digit % of AAs revenue, with maybe a couple of exceptions it's an addon revenue stream to passenger service that AA wants to fly. Greenland might have cargo potential but the decision to fly there would first be based on pax demand.
 
dfwking
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:14 pm

9w748capt wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
PITFlyer330 wrote:
sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:


How or let me rephrase why would AA do any long haul out of PIT? In addition, what makes you think AUS can sustain GRU, MAD flights?


Well, AUS does (did?) have LHR and now AMS. So MAD isn't terribly illogical. No idea about GRU though - is there a large Brazilian community in AUS?



XLR will likely not have the range to fly AUS-TATL/Deep South America. KEF and LIM would likely be the farthest viable routes...
 
JohanTally
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 2:21 pm

PITFlyer330 wrote:
sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:

I think over 4350nm is going to be a stretch for the XLR. AUS could get possibly get a XLR needed route but not more than 4000nm
 
acavpics
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:05 pm

tphuang wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Looks like AA's strategy for Europe will be to funnel all but core markets (like AMS, CDG, MAD, BCN, FRA) through LHR.


It must be a winter thing.

However, it is still a vote of no confidence in transatlantic opening up by November (as jetblue CEO was worrying about).


Yeah, seems like tatl demand this winter will be quite weak. Going through lhr is probably the best strategy.


But in that case, why won't they do the nonstops to MAD and FCO this winter? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that Spain and Italy were among the handful of European countries that do allow quarantine free tourism between themselves and the US for vaccinated travelers. Furthermore, British tourists are still not allowed to visit the US without quarantine, even those who are fully vaccinated.

Assuming that this still remains the case this winter, wouldn't it make sense for AA to fly nonstop to destinations like BCN, MAD, FCO instead of focusing on funneling through the UK, which is still under travel restrictions?

I would have though most travelers would prefer to fly directly to their destinations abroad rather than connect via a country that still has travel restrictions.
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:35 pm

9w748capt wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
PITFlyer330 wrote:
sorry if this is stupid question, does anyone think the XLR could let AA do long-haul out of AUS? maybe to CDG, GRU, MAD?

or maybe have flights to Europe from PIT again? :banghead:


How or let me rephrase why would AA do any long haul out of PIT? In addition, what makes you think AUS can sustain GRU, MAD flights?


Well, AUS does (did?) have LHR and now AMS. So MAD isn't terribly illogical. No idea about GRU though - is there a large Brazilian community in AUS?


AMS has yet to start and will only be 3 weekly. AUS market needs to mature before it can take anymore long haul flights.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:43 pm

acavpics wrote:
tphuang wrote:
chonetsao wrote:

It must be a winter thing.

However, it is still a vote of no confidence in transatlantic opening up by November (as jetblue CEO was worrying about).


Yeah, seems like tatl demand this winter will be quite weak. Going through lhr is probably the best strategy.


But in that case, why won't they do the nonstops to MAD and FCO this winter? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that Spain and Italy were among the handful of European countries that do allow quarantine free tourism between themselves and the US for vaccinated travelers. Furthermore, British tourists are still not allowed to visit the US without quarantine, even those who are fully vaccinated.

Assuming that this still remains the case this winter, wouldn't it make sense for AA to fly nonstop to destinations like BCN, MAD, FCO instead of focusing on funneling through the UK, which is still under travel restrictions?

I would have though most travelers would prefer to fly directly to their destinations abroad rather than connect via a country that still has travel restrictions.


Demand is pretty soft to Italy and Spain in the Winter, in non pandemic times. FCO is a leisure market, mostly. MAD is a connector for AA via IB but international travel is way down and will likely remain that way until more of the world is vaccinated and variant(s) are under control. It probably makes more sense for AA to redeploy the wide bodies on the BCN, MAD, FCO routes onto domestic and other shorter international markets where demand is greater, most of it will be leisure or VFR.
 
sfojvjets
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:24 pm

sagechan wrote:
sfojvjets wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
No I actually really meant GOH.
PHL-GOH is less than 2000 miles; AA could do it with an A319.
Greenland is an up and coming tourism destination. It is just a pain to get there from the US.
You basically have to buy a ticket to CPH or KEF and then buy another extremely expensive ticket from CPH/KEF to GOH. KEF-GOH is over 1000 RT by itself.
Greenland is remote and expensive once you get there but the extreme cost and time of getting there from the US is what really depresses the tourism numbers.
Greenland saw a little more than 3000 US visitors in summer 2019; I figure they could double or triple that with a convenient 2-3x weekly flight.

I admire that you have rationale for your atypical suggestion; I also don't think this will have any chance of ever happening.

I think the main issue with Greenland (and there are a lot) is that if you're flying long- or even medium-haul, you need to be able to fly somewhere that is a very large O&D market, because demand will basically always be an issue. PHL completely skips the NYC metro.

Another issue is that these flights would be very cargo-intensive. Passenger sales will not always break even, much less turn a profit. That's where cargo steps in to offset the losses made by pax transportation. You simply cannot do any heavy cargo lifting with a 321neo relative to what you could do using a widebody. Ever wonder why Air Greenland operates an A330, and even after the launch of the XLR, still went for the A339 despite it being bigger and thus harder to fill? A large chunk of the reason is cargo transport. Greenland is isolated and an aircraft with the cargo-carrying capacity of a widebody is ideal.

The final significant issue I see with these flights is something I touched on earlier - I do not think pax sales will make this profitable. And AA would most definitely not fly a widebody to Greenland, so there is little to no cargo profit that offsets pax losses. This is the exact reason why I believe that any long-haul/non-regional flights to Greenland would only be done by the national carrier, not anyone else. The national carrier is likely the only entity that would have the means and/or reason to be so invested in maintaining air links that likely aren't very profitable, if at all. I think one other important conclusion to draw is that Greenland is not Iceland 2.0, at least not yet.

Also, one more obvious thing that you may not have considered is that perhaps flights to Greenland are expensive for a reason. Think about its remoteness and relative lack of infrastructure, operational challenges, etc. Still, all of these additional cons/challenges that come with serving Greenland pale in comparison to the core issues facing viability, or lack thereof, of the proposed route... just my 2 cents.

This is not to say that Greenland will always remain so "isolated" air-traffic wise. I'm sure Air Greenland will eventually fly to NYC, perhaps a couple freqs weekly and summer-seasonal. But again, that's simply an expansion of the national carrier, which has the patience, means, and reason to actually start these flights... for the other airlines, like AA for example, who can't even make some decent-sized South American VFR markets work when S.A. is their strong suit, there is really no upside at all to starting routes like this. Maybe just bragging rights and the ability to put up a poster saying "Only U.S. Airline to Fly to Greenland." Not going to happen.

Edited for clarity


While I agree that Greenland is a very long shot, I wouldn't agree with this reasoning. The main reason it's a long shot is it has low demand overall (afreinf with your 3rd point). First the US passenger carriers aren't as reliant on specific origin O&D for long haul flights, as the hubs are generally based in larger US cities with lots of feed. While Philly does suffer leakage to NYC, PHL is still the 6th largest city in the US and for unique destinations can pull from NYC itself. In normal times cargo revenue is low single digit % of AAs revenue, with maybe a couple of exceptions it's an addon revenue stream to passenger service that AA wants to fly. Greenland might have cargo potential but the decision to fly there would first be based on pax demand.

Agree with you on many points here. Low demand is at the core of the issue. That's why I stated that A) you need to fly there from a large metro area B) you need cargo capacity to offset pax losses and C) only Air Greenland would likely launch a route from Greenland to the US.

I hear you about PHL being the 6th largest city in the US, and that's great. Problem is, I don't think that even matters. I think the metro area for PHL has around 6 million... NYC has around 20 million. That's kind of a no-brainer. Yes, there are connections throughout the US possible from PHL. But that's the same situation from JFK/EWR. I do agree that PHL can pull its own weight, but that's only because of AA IMO. AA's tatl hub presence has allowed PHL to snag markets with little tatl service, like DBV, and they almost even started PHL-CMN. I think it's safe to say that in the near future at least, AA would never launch this route, and definitely not when they still have untapped opportunities like starting PHL-TLV, or restarting PHL-DBV for example. I also expect PHL to continue to be a very important hub for AA in the future, especially with the arrival of the XLR. I just don't think that routes like PHL-GOH would ever happen, though.

AA's not going to do it, DL is most definitely not going to do it, and even UA, who I would designate as the most "visionary" of the big three in terms of network planning, would not do it. What reward is there for *them*?

The biggest gain is for Air Greenland... and from the NYC metro.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:07 pm

I don't see AA starting PHL to Greenland. The market is tiny and if any pairing were to launch, it would most likely be from NYC but that's likely far off into the future and probably not on a US carrier. US flew PHL-TLV starting in 2009. AA pulled the route down in 2015 saying it never made money. It was US's longest route. If AA has found any success in US to TLV it would be from JFK and MIA and eventually DFW, when that route launches.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:43 am

Drinks on planes will have to wait: American Airlines won't resume alcohol sales in economy this year

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/a ... 195536002/

American Airlines passengers traveling in economy class won't be able to buy alcoholic beverages until at least January.

The airline told flight attendants this week that it won't resume alcohol sales until Jan. 18. The timeline is tied to the federal mask mandate for public transportation, which was recently extended until that date.

American had planned to resume alcohol sales this summer, as many of its competitors have already done, but hasn't set a date and scrapped those plans in late May due to high-profile incidents involving unruly passengers. The airline said at the time it would suspend alcohol sales through Sept. 13, the day the mask mandate was due to end. (American does serve alcohol in first class.)


I guess this will work, unless they start having fists fights in 1st Class.
 
Brandon757
Posts: 168
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:49 pm

I can't buy alcohol on the back of the plane but let's give it for free on the front! Seriously, first class isn't always a cut above.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sat Aug 21, 2021 10:14 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
N292UX wrote:
For the XLR out of PHL, I'm guessing MAN, BRU, DUS, NCE, GLA, OPO, HEL, and CPH will be some of the first routes. I also see WAW, VIE, BHX, ARN, OSL, HAM, GVA, and NAP being launched later on and markets like AGP, TFS, SVQ, MRS, PMI, and TLS could be potential dark horses. However, a lot of this is dependent on how committed AA is to making PHL a huge TATL hub.

As for the possibility of AA launching DOH, I do think it happens eventually, and it will most likely be from DFW. If it's not from DFW, I am going to go super bold and say it will be from CLT.


Regarding (new) Destinations from Philadelphia on the XLR I think we have to look what Destinations Continental added with 757s from Newark during/around the 2000s (in chronological order):

Birmingham
Oslo
Edinburgh (already served)
Bristol
Belfast
Stockholm
Hamburg
Berlin
Barcelona (already served)
Copenhagen
Cologne
Stuttgart
Newcastle (started by United)

Maybe one or two will not come with AA, with 3-4 another ones instead but this should give us an Idea!

I would add as potential Destinations:

Düsseldorf (instead of Cologne)
Nice
Geneva
Prague
Warzaw
Helsinki
Lyons

And the big advantage of American will be that they will get their first XLRs more than a year before their main "XLR-competitor" flooding Secondary Markets which is United. I think they will have almost or even half their XLR delivered before United get their first one.


PHL doesn't have anything like the NYC O&D that supported those CO flights out of EWR, so effectively it's one-stop service XXX-PHL-NCE/PRG etc., competing with all the other 1-stops XXX-CDG/AMS/FRA/LHR-YYY. IMHO, it will be a very small subset of those flights that gets launched (and prove sustainable).


Sure the market is not as huge as New York, but Philadelphia is still a very large city (larger than Atlanta) a pretty large Hub. On Delta flights from secondary Europe places to Atlanta 70%+ of the passengers are connecting passengers, a much higher number than on flights to NYC. Of course AA would compete with all the other One-Stop alternatives on relations like PRG-PHL-ORD. But think about those many US cities with very limited or no nonstop service to Europe. In this case AA can offer a One-Stop instead of two stops with the competition. On HAM-EWR for example we had quite a few people connecting to smaller cities in the US, because its more convenient to connect only once obviously.
 
KAUSavgeek
Posts: 38
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:55 am

usflyer msp wrote:
FSDan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

PHL doesn't have anything like the NYC O&D that supported those CO flights out of EWR, so effectively it's one-stop service XXX-PHL-NCE/PRG etc., competing with all the other 1-stops XXX-CDG/AMS/FRA/LHR-YYY. IMHO, it will be a very small subset of those flights that gets launched (and prove sustainable).


:checkmark: Definitely agree. It's fun to dream big, but I don't see even a quarter of these happening (at least not from Philly) in the long run. For starters, I don't think AA will have anywhere near as many secondary UK destinations as CO/UA did, in no small part because of the dynamic of having BA as a joint business partner and being very London-centric. MAN, sure. BRS, definitely not. Similar story with Ireland - let's see if SNN even comes back before considering BFS...

PHL will remain a sizeable TATL hub going forward, but its real strength in AA's network is connecting smaller U.S. destinations that don't have JFK service (think GRR, DAY, LEX, TYS, GSP, MDT, etc.) to high-volume European destinations. More niche TATL destinations are probably better connected to JFK in the new paradigm, with much larger O&D and plenty of ability to get connections (both own metal and B6) from other large U.S. destinations such as SFO, LAX, DFW, ORD, and MIA.


I think PHL will get some niche destinations.

I think MAN will come back with an XLR.
I think SNN and KEF will return with 321neo's.
I think GLA and BHX are possibilities just because of the BA ties and the lack of other TATL service.
AA has publicly mentioned PHL-BSL as a potential route due to Pharma ties.
Others:
PHL-PDL (321neo)
PHL-RAI (321neo)
PHL-CMN
PHL-OSL
PHL-DUS
PHL-VIE
PHL-TLS
PHL-GOH (321neo)
PHL-AGP



I think the JV with BA/IB requires all transatlantic flights to be lie-flat, at least it was the case a few years ago
 
usflyer msp
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:17 am

KAUSavgeek wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
FSDan wrote:

:checkmark: Definitely agree. It's fun to dream big, but I don't see even a quarter of these happening (at least not from Philly) in the long run. For starters, I don't think AA will have anywhere near as many secondary UK destinations as CO/UA did, in no small part because of the dynamic of having BA as a joint business partner and being very London-centric. MAN, sure. BRS, definitely not. Similar story with Ireland - let's see if SNN even comes back before considering BFS...

PHL will remain a sizeable TATL hub going forward, but its real strength in AA's network is connecting smaller U.S. destinations that don't have JFK service (think GRR, DAY, LEX, TYS, GSP, MDT, etc.) to high-volume European destinations. More niche TATL destinations are probably better connected to JFK in the new paradigm, with much larger O&D and plenty of ability to get connections (both own metal and B6) from other large U.S. destinations such as SFO, LAX, DFW, ORD, and MIA.


I think PHL will get some niche destinations.

I think MAN will come back with an XLR.
I think SNN and KEF will return with 321neo's.
I think GLA and BHX are possibilities just because of the BA ties and the lack of other TATL service.
AA has publicly mentioned PHL-BSL as a potential route due to Pharma ties.
Others:
PHL-PDL (321neo)
PHL-RAI (321neo)
PHL-CMN
PHL-OSL
PHL-DUS
PHL-VIE
PHL-TLS
PHL-GOH (321neo)
PHL-AGP



I think the JV with BA/IB requires all transatlantic flights to be lie-flat, at least it was the case a few years ago


The JV requires Business Class to be lie-flat but does not require a Business Class on all flights.
AA had PHL- SNN, PHL-KEF and PHL-EDI scheduled with A321neo's at one point this year but they were selling the front cabin as Premium Economy not Business.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:59 pm

AA to add ORD-SJO/LIR
SJO will go 3 weekly
LIR will be a Saturday only flight
https://ticotimes.net/2021/08/20/americ ... costa-rica
 
MIflyer12
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 4:27 pm

I love Hawaii - I have a trip booked in october - but these ORD-Central America things make a lot of sense to avoid the multi-time-zone, redeye, sleep-deprived, jet-lagged out of my mind returns from Hawaii. Costa Rica is sweet.
 
dca1
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:07 pm

3 Bold Predictions Before 2022 - American Airlines will buy JetBlue
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-bold- ... 2021-08-17

This seems like a stretch to me, but we are in some strange times.
 
Varsity1
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 5:17 pm

dca1 wrote:
3 Bold Predictions Before 2022 - American Airlines will buy JetBlue
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-bold- ... 2021-08-17

This seems like a stretch to me, but we are in some strange times.


With what money?
 
chonetsao
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:15 pm

Varsity1 wrote:

With what money?


I think the rumour of AAL buying JetBlue is a stretch.

However, to answer your question, it could be a all-share merger, with an all share swap offer and a hefty cash component. The money is so cheap and so much is available, there will be funds that would like to lend to AA at 1-3%. From there AAL can have with cash to pay the cash dividend to JetBlue share holders and the JetBlue shares merge into AAL on a convertible formula.

As long as there are cash around, there will always be willing parties to seek the 1-2% reward in short term basis.

However, I don't think JetBlue shareholders want that. Unless there is another funds buy majority of JetBlue first and actively seek the all share merger with AAL, or actively seeking AAL to buy out.

Without going further, let us just say money is a strange matter. Doug Parker has always being the head of the smaller company that bought the much bigger company. He is bad at airline quality management but he is definitely the king of airline M&A activities in recent histories. Who knows, it could be his last trick before he leaves AA.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4712
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:20 pm

chonetsao wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:

With what money?


I think the rumour of AAL buying JetBlue is a stretch.

However, to answer your question, it could be a all-share merger, with an all share swap offer and a hefty cash component. The money is so cheap and so much is available, there will be funds that would like to lend to AA at 1-3%. From there AAL can have with cash to pay the cash dividend to JetBlue share holders and the JetBlue shares merge into AAL on a convertible formula.

As long as there are cash around, there will always be willing parties to seek the 1-2% reward in short term basis.

However, I don't think JetBlue shareholders want that. Unless there is another funds buy majority of JetBlue first and actively seek the all share merger with AAL, or actively seeking AAL to buy out.

Without going further, let us just say money is a strange matter. Doug Parker has always being the head of the smaller company that bought the much bigger company. He is bad at airline quality management but he is definitely the king of airline M&A activities in recent histories. Who knows, it could be his last trick before he leaves AA.


I don't disagree. While AA purchasing B6 outright is a stretch, and AA does not have the finances to do it, a SPAC-type vehicle could be the key to an eventual combination of AA and B6.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1840
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:45 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
dca1 wrote:
3 Bold Predictions Before 2022 - American Airlines will buy JetBlue
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-bold- ... 2021-08-17

This seems like a stretch to me, but we are in some strange times.


With what money?


Don't worry - Dougie will ALWAYS find the money needed to rip out IFE. He's probably salivating at the thought of acquiring B6 just for that!
 
tphuang
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:20 pm

The bigger issue is that AA can get all it needs from B6 with the current setup and not have to deal with all the annoying merger related costs. On top of that, it would negate all the cost advantage B6 fleet has in NYC/Boston. It frankly would be a disaster for an airline that has this much debt to deal with. AA currently can wait for B6 to spend money getting its system up to par to. If you've seen B6's cost projections for the next couple of quarters, there is a lot of NEA related cost pressure.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4322
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 7:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
The bigger issue is that AA can get all it needs from B6 with the current setup and not have to deal with all the annoying merger related costs. On top of that, it would negate all the cost advantage B6 fleet has in NYC/Boston. It frankly would be a disaster for an airline that has this much debt to deal with. AA currently can wait for B6 to spend money getting its system up to par to. If you've seen B6's cost projections for the next couple of quarters, there is a lot of NEA related cost pressure.


I agree. I would hope AA has learned after all these years that buying lower-cost competitors and trying to maintain their network with the higher cost structure does not work. AA has too many failed past mergers to ignore this.
 
onwFan
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:27 pm

dca1 wrote:
3 Bold Predictions Before 2022 - American Airlines will buy JetBlue
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-bold- ... 2021-08-17

This seems like a stretch to me, but we are in some strange times.

I don’t see the point behind AA buying jetBlue at all (and it shouldn’t be approved) - AA is already #1 on the East Coast with 5 hubs; it will only skew their network even further. If they buy B6, they will try to spread TATL across JFK, PHL, BOS, CLT and MIA and have none as a true hub in the end (they don’t even know yet how to balance JFK and PHL). The current partnership makes sense to address both AA & B6’s weakness in NYC and BOS, and while it may not last forever, it should help both carriers improve their position for the long term.
They are #3 on the west coast and should instead work on improving their presence there instead, build a West Coast gateway and try to build a sustainable presence in Asia. If they miss the boat for TPAC now, I don’t see AA’s position in Asia ever being tenable.
 
BangersAndMash
Posts: 270
Joined: Sat Jul 10, 2021 5:21 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 10:47 pm

onwFan wrote:
They are #3 on the west coast and should instead work on improving their presence there instead, build a West Coast gateway and try to build a sustainable presence in Asia. If they miss the boat for TPAC now, I don’t see AA’s position in Asia ever being tenable.


To be fair, they're doing just that on the West Coast. And the AS partnership should have longer legs than the NEA. It's one of those rare cases where you get to make the cake bigger and there's more for everyone. It's been there for a while, but AA management was too busy playing zero sum games after the AS/VS merger to see it. I'm for one excited to see what the two of them can do in places like LAX, SFO, and of course SEA. AA may finally have an answer to its West Coast problem.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4712
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Aug 22, 2021 11:51 pm

onwFan wrote:
dca1 wrote:
3 Bold Predictions Before 2022 - American Airlines will buy JetBlue
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-bold- ... 2021-08-17

This seems like a stretch to me, but we are in some strange times.

I don’t see the point behind AA buying jetBlue at all (and it shouldn’t be approved) - AA is already #1 on the East Coast with 5 hubs; it will only skew their network even further. If they buy B6, they will try to spread TATL across JFK, PHL, BOS, CLT and MIA and have none as a true hub in the end (they don’t even know yet how to balance JFK and PHL). The current partnership makes sense to address both AA & B6’s weakness in NYC and BOS, and while it may not last forever, it should help both carriers improve their position for the long term.
They are #3 on the west coast and should instead work on improving their presence there instead, build a West Coast gateway and try to build a sustainable presence in Asia. If they miss the boat for TPAC now, I don’t see AA’s position in Asia ever being tenable.


AA has struggled for years to make TPAC, particularly Asia, work. In 1986, Bob Crandall looked at Pan Am's TPAC network and passed on it, opening the door for UA. That is nothing new and there is nothing that AA can build on the West Coast to solve for its relatively weak position in Asia, a market that itself is changing rapidly as a consequence of the pandemic. LAX was never ideal for AA to build a TPAC gateway. Pre-pandemic, it was a highly competitive market and lots of capacity. The only solution for AA really is SEA, with the strength of the AS hub and feed, without which it wouldn't be able to stage any of the new and planned long haul services. AA is pretty big at LAX though overall and the AS presence will only help there. As to Asia though, AA will rely on partners in OW for the most part and focus most TPAC out of DFW and whatever they can add in SEA. LAX will remain the gateway to Australia and New Zealand but it will take a year or more for all that to be restarted and rebuilt.
 
onwFan
Posts: 669
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Aug 23, 2021 12:50 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
onwFan wrote:
dca1 wrote:
3 Bold Predictions Before 2022 - American Airlines will buy JetBlue
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-bold- ... 2021-08-17

This seems like a stretch to me, but we are in some strange times.

I don’t see the point behind AA buying jetBlue at all (and it shouldn’t be approved) - AA is already #1 on the East Coast with 5 hubs; it will only skew their network even further. If they buy B6, they will try to spread TATL across JFK, PHL, BOS, CLT and MIA and have none as a true hub in the end (they don’t even know yet how to balance JFK and PHL). The current partnership makes sense to address both AA & B6’s weakness in NYC and BOS, and while it may not last forever, it should help both carriers improve their position for the long term.
They are #3 on the west coast and should instead work on improving their presence there instead, build a West Coast gateway and try to build a sustainable presence in Asia. If they miss the boat for TPAC now, I don’t see AA’s position in Asia ever being tenable.


AA has struggled for years to make TPAC, particularly Asia, work. In 1986, Bob Crandall looked at Pan Am's TPAC network and passed on it, opening the door for UA. That is nothing new and there is nothing that AA can build on the West Coast to solve for its relatively weak position in Asia, a market that itself is changing rapidly as a consequence of the pandemic. LAX was never ideal for AA to build a TPAC gateway. Pre-pandemic, it was a highly competitive market and lots of capacity. The only solution for AA really is SEA, with the strength of the AS hub and feed, without which it wouldn't be able to stage any of the new and planned long haul services. AA is pretty big at LAX though overall and the AS presence will only help there. As to Asia though, AA will rely on partners in OW for the most part and focus most TPAC out of DFW and whatever they can add in SEA. LAX will remain the gateway to Australia and New Zealand but it will take a year or more for all that to be restarted and rebuilt.

Yes, I am referring particularly to the West Coast international alliance with AS. AS has finally boosted oneworld’s presence in the west coast from being the weakest to the strongest, and the PNW from a no man’s land to a oneworld fortress. While TPAC demand is now at an all-time low, the market dynamics in Asia may emerge totally different from that pre-pandemic (e.g. China, PKX, KE/OZ merger, CX/CZ, etc.) and present itself with new kinds of opportunities in the PNW. They need to strike when DL is at its weakest in SEA, as this is finally an opportunity for them to make amends for their historically weak position in Asia. I am curious to see what they make of it.

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