American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Runway765 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:59 pm

Not surprising. These markets are really in a league of their own above other midsized cities/markets.

You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

Wneast · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:02 pm

Runway765 wrote:
Not surprising. These markets are really in a league of their own above other midsized cities/markets.

You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

I’m sure WN will battle them out In BNA and AUS maybe even RDU but i if AA shrinks elsewhere like Chicago I’m sure WN will come in there too

Cubsrule · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:03 pm

Runway765 wrote:
You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

Wneast · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:05 pm

Wneast wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
Not surprising. These markets are really in a league of their own above other midsized cities/markets.

You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

I’m sure WN will battle them out In BNA and AUS maybe even RDU but i if AA shrinks elsewhere like Chicago I’m sure WN will come in there and steal the real estate but southwest is going to put up a fight with AA too

Runway765 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:07 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

This too, though I’d argue AA has a much better network from BNA than DL at this point.

But if WN ends up taking 30 or so gates at BNA in the future, there won’t be much more AA could do anyway without getting clobbered.

DL747400 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:11 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

Totally agree. To win business away from competitors, AA is going to have to do quite a bit more than simply show up and say, "We're here!" It will cost them in some way. In effect, they will have to figure out how to "buy" the business they want and brush aside the business that doesn't help them reach their goals.

All carriers need to generate revenue right now in order to move in the direction of recovery. AA is worse off than others. They need to generate LOTS of revenue and sustain it. The race is on to chip away at the staggering debt before it swallows them whole.

Cubsrule · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:13 pm

Runway765 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

This too, though I’d argue AA has a much better network from BNA than DL at this point.

But if WN ends up taking 30 or so gates at BNA in the future, there won’t be much more AA could do anyway without getting clobbered.

AA has a better set of destinations than DL at BNA and arguably has since before the merger. But DL has bottomless ATL service, which ameliorates lots of those advantages. You'd think that the hub structure would give AA a decided time advantage on stuff like BNA-OKC/ABQ, and in general I've not found that to be the case.

IAHWorldflyer · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:20 pm

AA wouldn't need to do much at BNA to capture some high value customers. Increase service to LAX and LGA, maybe throw in SFO, BOS, and seasonal service to EGL. It looks like they are starting service to MCO and AUS this summer. Try and get more money from people in the recording and entertainment industries.

Runway765 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:20 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

This too, though I’d argue AA has a much better network from BNA than DL at this point.

But if WN ends up taking 30 or so gates at BNA in the future, there won’t be much more AA could do anyway without getting clobbered.

AA has a better set of destinations than DL at BNA and arguably has since before the merger. But DL has bottomless ATL service, which ameliorates lots of those advantages. You'd think that the hub structure would give AA a decided time advantage on stuff like BNA-OKC/ABQ, and in general I've not found that to be the case.

But AA has CLT/ORD/DFW close by. That’s greater than ATL IMO, especially on the international front.

You are correct it’s their product/service that is lacking. If they fixed that, they’d be golden going forward.

tphuang · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:32 pm

They can eye a lot of things and make route announcements, but the reality is that a lot of these new routes that they have announced or might announce are going to be huge money losers once WN retaliates.

The airline with the worst financial position should be careful about poking the airline with the best financial position. Sure, I get that they have a lot of ff in these places and a lot of business travelers prefer a legacy carrier. AA has real costs which it has not addressed, so would need huge revenue premium to make flights work.

Profitably expand is a strong phrase for an airline that could barely turn a profit pre-COVID.

reednavy · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:36 pm

I mean, 3 booming secondary US cities that have very stable economies, explosive population growth, & 2 of them are entertainment meccas, it just makes sense. BNA could easily have a few more spokes added, like mentioned a few posts above, and that can help drive competition in the business sector once that truly awakens again.

Runway765 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
They can eye a lot of things and make route announcements, but the reality is that a lot of these new routes that they have announced or might announce are going to be huge money losers once WN retaliates.

The airline with the worst financial position should be careful about poking the airline with the best financial position. Sure, I get that they have a lot of ff in these places and a lot of business travelers prefer a legacy carrier. AA has real costs which it has not addressed, so would need huge revenue premium to make flights work.

Profitably expand is a strong phrase for an airline that could barely turn a profit pre-COVID.

I agree with most of this, but I think of the 3, BNA is the only one where AA will experience significant trouble. WN is probably going to be at 200+ flights at some point if recent announcements are any indication. That's going to be tough for AA to compete against.

AUS/RDU don't have a carrier that will be getting to that point anytime soon, so there is much more of an opening, but not saying it will be easy.

clrd4t8koff · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:41 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy

While the 757, 767, A330 and E190's are permanently retired, I'd assume all the 737-800's will be reactivated soon. Didn't AA recently announce their whole fleet will be flying again by the end of May?

southwest1675 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:43 pm

AA wanting to grow in RDU and BNA? The 90s are back baby!

TWFlyGuy · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:45 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

To be fair, there are plenty of ways to keep your miles active. Buy some, use the credit card, send someone flowers, go to a restaurant.

As for being the legacy of choice I think a lot of travelers would give nonstops on AA a chance over DL because when nonstop isn't an option, AA has better hub options. East to CLT, West to DFW for southern connections or ORD for Northern connections. UA is probably more of a comparison.

SESGDL · Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:55 pm

clrd4t8koff wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy

While the 757, 767, A330 and E190's are permanently retired, I'd assume all the 737-800's will be reactivated soon. Didn't AA recently announce their whole fleet will be flying again by the end of May?

Not to my knowledge. I had read that nearly 70 737-800s are being removed from the fleet. Perhaps that has changed.

Jeremy

Cubsrule · Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:00 pm

TWFlyGuy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

To be fair, there are plenty of ways to keep your miles active. Buy some, use the credit card, send someone flowers, go to a restaurant.

As for being the legacy of choice I think a lot of travelers would give nonstops on AA a chance over DL because when nonstop isn't an option, AA has better hub options. East to CLT, West to DFW for southern connections or ORD for Northern connections. UA is probably more of a comparison.

For anything east of Interstate 75, Delta has the best hub because ATL is a shorter flight than any AA hub and has the most connectivity to virtually everywhere in the Eastern Time Zone. And again, my experience as a BNA business traveler has been that AA doesn't give folks as much scheduling advantage as the hub structure would suggest. For business travelers, there are really four schedule questions that matter: (1) frequency/choice, (2) who can get me there closest to Time X (closely related to number 1)?, (3) who can get me there earliest in the morning? and (4) who can let me work the latest and still get me home that night? ATL gives DL a leg up on the first three questions; for east coast cities AA is often better on number 4 (CLT's last bank is typically a little later). Adding p2p service won't really change that dynamic.

PHLspecial · Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:09 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy

I keep joking about PHL getting dehubbed. It's slowly looking less and less focus can be put on PHL. In the future PHL most likely will be a reliver hub for JFK. PHL most likely have flights to Florida and the islands maybe a couple of TATL routes that can't be served from JFK. AUS, BNA, and RDU are great growing cities unlike Philadelphia or Chicago. Short term PHL will be scaled back (180 flights a day), long term no idea. The other three cities can have over 50 flights a day with this growth rate.

avi8 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:12 pm

WN dominates in these cities with the exception of RDU. And I’m sure WN will defend them aggressively, just like they did with AUS. The more competition the better for everyone else, that’s for sure.

tphuang · Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:17 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy

I keep joking about PHL getting dehubbed. It's slowly looking less and less focus can be put on PHL. In the future PHL most likely will be a reliver hub for JFK. PHL most likely have flights to Florida and the islands maybe a couple of TATL routes that can't be served from JFK. AUS, BNA, and RDU are great growing cities unlike Philadelphia or Chicago. Short term PHL will be scaled back (180 flights a day), long term no idea. The other three cities can have over 50 flights a day with this growth rate.

It would be so stupid for AA to make PHL a reliever hub. Aside from ULCC, either WN or B6 will move into PHL if AA forgets about it for a long period of time.

usairways85 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:00 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy

I keep joking about PHL getting dehubbed. It's slowly looking less and less focus can be put on PHL. In the future PHL most likely will be a reliver hub for JFK. PHL most likely have flights to Florida and the islands maybe a couple of TATL routes that can't be served from JFK. AUS, BNA, and RDU are great growing cities unlike Philadelphia or Chicago. Short term PHL will be scaled back (180 flights a day), long term no idea. The other three cities can have over 50 flights a day with this growth rate.

You know that AA is running more than 180 flights/day at PHL now?

PHLspecial · Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
It would be so stupid for AA to make PHL a reliever hub. Aside from ULCC, either WN or B6 will move into PHL if AA forgets about it for a long period of time.

Well hence why I said its a short term problem. Long term I have no idea when AA wants to take on more aircraft. I doubt B6 or WN would expand operations in PHL. B6 will continue to grow LGA, JFK, EWR in the comments that I have read. WN is quite weak in the northeast with BWI 100 miles away. I agree what I said is stupid but I do see PHL getting cut in the short term.

DakotaFlyer · Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:15 pm

Hum, I feel both BNA and RDU have been here before

jplatts · Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
It would be so stupid for AA to make PHL a reliever hub. Aside from ULCC, either WN or B6 will move into PHL if AA forgets about it for a long period of time.

While I could see WN possibly re-adding some routes out of PHL such as PHL-AUS/RSW/JAX/LAS/PHX/PBI if AA forgets about PHL for a long period of time, I would likely expect WN to have a smaller presence at PHL than it did 12 years ago.

WN was at a peak of 70 daily departures in 2009 according to a city fact sheet found at https://web.archive.org/web/20090701202032/http://www.swamedia.com/swamedia/cities/swamedia_phl.html. WN was much smaller at PHL in 2019 than it was a decade earlier, and WN has an even smaller presence at PHL today than it did prior to the COVID-19 pandemic with the significant cuts that WN has made at most of its stations during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Even though WN had previously served some other Northeastern destinations such as PIT, BDL, PVD, BOS, and MHT nonstop from PHL, I probably would not expect WN to re-add nonstop service out of PHL to other Northeastern destinations such as PIT, BDL, PVD, BOS, or MHT.

iAvgeek737 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
PHLspecial wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy

I keep joking about PHL getting dehubbed. It's slowly looking less and less focus can be put on PHL. In the future PHL most likely will be a reliver hub for JFK. PHL most likely have flights to Florida and the islands maybe a couple of TATL routes that can't be served from JFK. AUS, BNA, and RDU are great growing cities unlike Philadelphia or Chicago. Short term PHL will be scaled back (180 flights a day), long term no idea. The other three cities can have over 50 flights a day with this growth rate.

It would be so stupid for AA to make PHL a reliever hub. Aside from ULCC, either WN or B6 will move into PHL if AA forgets about it for a long period of time.

WN would add but I think B6 would be the most likely to turn PHL into a big airport for them.

Midwestindy · Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:01 pm

DL747400 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
It seems to me that to grow BNA, AA will have to convince some folks who are loyal to DL that it ought to be their "legacy of choice." I'm not convinced that AA can do that with just more destinations; they need to chance some of their customer-unfriendly policies (like the fact that I'm about to lose my AAdvantage miles - I last flew AA two months before the pandemic struck).

Totally agree. To win business away from competitors, AA is going to have to do quite a bit more than simply show up and say, "We're here!" It will cost them in some way. In effect, they will have to figure out how to "buy" the business they want and brush aside the business that doesn't help them reach their goals.

All carriers need to generate revenue right now in order to move in the direction of recovery. AA is worse off than others. They need to generate LOTS of revenue and sustain it. The race is on to chip away at the staggering debt before it swallows them whole.

This idea that I've seen thrown around a few times, that DL will retain FF no matter what their network offering is, is a flawed way of thinking.

Network offering is arguably the most important tool an airline has in attracting/retaining flyers in a market.

In XYZ market, if AA is offering service to 15 out of the top 20 markets, and DL is offering service to only 7 out of the top 20 markets AA is going to have a significant advantage over DL. Whether it is in corporate travel agreements, where AA now can win over a larger share of a businesses' travel, or from a leisure standpoint where AA is now more convenient.

Yes I know network offering isn't everything, heck I know people in monopoly hub markets who don't fly the largest carrier, but in my opinion network is the most important factor for loyalty.

Also in the case of BNA anyway, DL was about the same size as AA in terms of pax count (DL was smaller in terms of flights), so it isn't like AA needs to catch up to DL there anyway. RDU is the only one out of the 3 mentioned in this thread were AA was truly smaller.

ERJ170 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:39 pm

WN at RDU is pretty much an outstation and not that significant. Very little growth and very little attention has been added by WN. I don’t think they will retaliate.

DL, AA, and B6 at RDU is what’s to watch. B6 and AA could coordinate but they appear to be frenemies more than partners so I could see all 3 going al out. I don’t think it will be exorbitant, but it’s very important that whatever is gonna happen, happens now because the business travelers will following soon and if they are not in a position to capture them now, they won’t be able to get them later. DL would do well to start having some of their partners show up and add to their side.

None of the 3 will become the most dominant, but it’s a destination worth fighting for.

As for Austin, they are all fighting for 2nd because the Southwest beast will rule #1. I can see them adding routes but I can’t see them grabbing too big of a market share, regardless of what I read up here.. Southwest is just too big..

Cubsrule · Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:48 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
In XYZ market, if AA is offering service to 15 out of the top 20 markets, and DL is offering service to only 7 out of the top 20 markets AA is going to have a significant advantage over DL. Whether it is in corporate travel agreements, where AA now can win over a larger share of a businesses' travel, or from a leisure standpoint where AA is now more convenient.

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

AVLAirlineFreq · Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:56 pm

As much as anything, all of this feels like a strategic shot fired at DL. All three were markets were being emphasized by DL prior to the pandemic, even though "DL focus city" had yet to mean anything at AUS and BNA. WN is obviously a target here as well, but it just feels like this is meant for DL as much as anyone.

This will be fun to watch.

Runway765 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:58 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
In XYZ market, if AA is offering service to 15 out of the top 20 markets, and DL is offering service to only 7 out of the top 20 markets AA is going to have a significant advantage over DL. Whether it is in corporate travel agreements, where AA now can win over a larger share of a businesses' travel, or from a leisure standpoint where AA is now more convenient.

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

The thing I wonder about BNA the most is, if WN were to get to 200+ flights, would ANY legacy be able to command a decent share of the market? AUS and RDU likely won't have that issue as they don't have a single carrier with the scale WN has at BNA.

Midwestindy · Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:38 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
In XYZ market, if AA is offering service to 15 out of the top 20 markets, and DL is offering service to only 7 out of the top 20 markets AA is going to have a significant advantage over DL. Whether it is in corporate travel agreements, where AA now can win over a larger share of a businesses' travel, or from a leisure standpoint where AA is now more convenient.

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

Using Q3 2019:

The top 10 markets from BNA were: 1. NYC, 2. LA, 3. CHI, 4. BOS, 5. DC, 6. DFW, 7. DEN, 8. MIA, 9. PHL, 10. SF

So AA (& partners) serve all of BNA's top 6 markets, and 8 out of the top 10. DL serves 3.

If you break it out to top 25 markets, AA(& partners) still serve double the amount of markets that DL does, plus they have TATL thanks to BA.

AA serves 12 out of the top 20, so with LAS & TPA being places where AA is already adding p2p, those aren't far fetched additions, and if PHX surpasses ATL in O&D(they are essentially the same size O&D wise) that will get them to 15 out of the top 20.

UALFAson · Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:49 pm

Runway765 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
In XYZ market, if AA is offering service to 15 out of the top 20 markets, and DL is offering service to only 7 out of the top 20 markets AA is going to have a significant advantage over DL. Whether it is in corporate travel agreements, where AA now can win over a larger share of a businesses' travel, or from a leisure standpoint where AA is now more convenient.

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

The thing I wonder about BNA the most is, if WN were to get to 200+ flights, would ANY legacy be able to command a decent share of the market? AUS and RDU likely won't have that issue as they don't have a single carrier with the scale WN has at BNA.

I think you're both missing the point. No one honestly believes AA or DL is going to overtake WN for #1 at BNA. The question/point is, with so much growth and so much money flowing into the Nashville region, can AA become a strong enough #2 behind WN here to make some serious $, similar to how they are a solid #2 to UA at ORD but on a smaller scale.

Cubsrule, you yourself have said, travelers here are loyal to Southwest AND (American OR Delta). What it sounds like AA is trying to do is gain more of the people who might have DL as their #2 or get people to increase the proportion of flying they will do on AA vs WN.

Everything east of DEN is a 2-hour flight from BNA, which means you're getting a cup of a beverage and a cookie no matter who you fly, so service isn't really THAT differentiating of a factor. I agree with midwestindy that AA's route network out of BNA is far superior to DL's, which is the main reason why I switched allegiance from UA to AA when I moved here. American is just saying there's an opportunity for them to build loyalty with people like me who are relocating to BNA and these other cities who want a full-service carrier with a global footprint. UA's the one picking a fight with WN at DEN--I don't see that as what AA is trying to do in these 3 cities.

Cubsrule · Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
In XYZ market, if AA is offering service to 15 out of the top 20 markets, and DL is offering service to only 7 out of the top 20 markets AA is going to have a significant advantage over DL. Whether it is in corporate travel agreements, where AA now can win over a larger share of a businesses' travel, or from a leisure standpoint where AA is now more convenient.

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

Using Q3 2019:

The top 10 markets from BNA were: 1. NYC, 2. LA, 3. CHI, 4. BOS, 5. DC, 6. DFW, 7. DEN, 8. MIA, 9. PHL, 10. SF

So AA (& partners) serve all of BNA's top 6 markets, and 8 out of the top 10. DL serves 3.

If you break it out to top 25 markets, AA(& partners) still serve double the amount of markets that DL does, plus they have TATL thanks to BA.

AA serves 12 out of the top 20, so with LAS & TPA being places where AA is already adding p2p, those aren't far fetched additions, and if PHX surpasses ATL in O&D(they are essentially the same size O&D wise) that will get them to 15 out of the top 20.

Thinking about Q319, of the top 6, WN had a frequency advantage in three, flew to multiple airports in three, and flew to the preferred O&D airport in two others. So where, exactly, is the advantage for AA?

I don’t really like WN, but if their schedule is better I’ll fly them every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

tphuang · Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:05 pm

UALFAson wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

The thing I wonder about BNA the most is, if WN were to get to 200+ flights, would ANY legacy be able to command a decent share of the market? AUS and RDU likely won't have that issue as they don't have a single carrier with the scale WN has at BNA.

I think you're both missing the point. No one honestly believes AA or DL is going to overtake WN for #1 at BNA. The question/point is, with so much growth and so much money flowing into the Nashville region, can AA become a strong enough #2 behind WN here to make some serious $, similar to how they are a solid #2 to UA at ORD but on a smaller scale.

Cubsrule, you yourself have said, travelers here are loyal to Southwest AND (American OR Delta). What it sounds like AA is trying to do is gain more of the people who might have DL as their #2 or get people to increase the proportion of flying they will do on AA vs WN.

Everything east of DEN is a 2-hour flight from BNA, which means you're getting a cup of a beverage and a cookie no matter who you fly, so service isn't really THAT differentiating of a factor. I agree with midwestindy that AA's route network out of BNA is far superior to DL's, which is the main reason why I switched allegiance from UA to AA when I moved here. American is just saying there's an opportunity for them to build loyalty with people like me who are relocating to BNA and these other cities who want a full-service carrier with a global footprint. UA's the one picking a fight with WN at DEN--I don't see that as what AA is trying to do in these 3 cities.

They can do all of that without trying stuff like BNA-AUS/RDU or AUS-RDU/MSY/MCOTPA where WN obviously dominates and AA will struggle with small mainline or RJs on a smaller schedule. For AA, hubs + partner flights already make the obvious choice among legcy carriers.

All this P2P stuff is pretty crazy for an airline that has such weak finances. Great for the customers though. Before I get attacked for being a B6 supporter, I will just say that it's a terrible idea for B6 to get anywhere close to a WN turf war.

Midwestindy · Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:10 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

Using Q3 2019:

The top 10 markets from BNA were: 1. NYC, 2. LA, 3. CHI, 4. BOS, 5. DC, 6. DFW, 7. DEN, 8. MIA, 9. PHL, 10. SF

So AA (& partners) serve all of BNA's top 6 markets, and 8 out of the top 10. DL serves 3.

If you break it out to top 25 markets, AA(& partners) still serve double the amount of markets that DL does, plus they have TATL thanks to BA.

AA serves 12 out of the top 20, so with LAS & TPA being places where AA is already adding p2p, those aren't far fetched additions, and if PHX surpasses ATL in O&D(they are essentially the same size O&D wise) that will get them to 15 out of the top 20.

Thinking about Q319, of the top 6, WN had a frequency advantage in three, flew to multiple airports in three, and flew to the preferred O&D airport in two others. So where, exactly, is the advantage for AA?

I don’t really like WN, but if their schedule is better I’ll fly them every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

UALFAson wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

In the abstract of course that’s true, but will AA really get to 15 of the top 20 business markets from BNA? They aren’t ever going to open ATL or DTW (big auto industry ties), for instance.

The BNA dynamic might be more like WN serving 18 or 19 of the top 20, DL serving 7 or 8, and AA serving 11 or 12. And in that scenario, I’m not sure AA has a significant advantage amongst legacies, especially if WN has a frequency and/or airport convenience advantage on some of those markets AA serves and DL doesn’t (for the foreseeable future, that will be true in the likes of CHI, DAL, and AUS).

The thing I wonder about BNA the most is, if WN were to get to 200+ flights, would ANY legacy be able to command a decent share of the market? AUS and RDU likely won't have that issue as they don't have a single carrier with the scale WN has at BNA.

I think you're both missing the point. No one honestly believes AA or DL is going to overtake WN for #1 at BNA. The question/point is, with so much growth and so much money flowing into the Nashville region, can AA become a strong enough #2 behind WN here to make some serious $, similar to how they are a solid #2 to UA at ORD but on a smaller scale.

Cubsrule, you yourself have said, travelers here are loyal to Southwest AND (American OR Delta). What it sounds like AA is trying to do is gain more of the people who might have DL as their #2 or get people to increase the proportion of flying they will do on AA vs WN.

Everything east of DEN is a 2-hour flight from BNA, which means you're getting a cup of a beverage and a cookie no matter who you fly, so service isn't really THAT differentiating of a factor. I agree with midwestindy that AA's route network out of BNA is far superior to DL's, which is the main reason why I switched allegiance from UA to AA when I moved here. American is just saying there's an opportunity for them to build loyalty with people like me who are relocating to BNA and these other cities who want a full-service carrier with a global footprint. UA's the one picking a fight with WN at DEN--I don't see that as what AA is trying to do in these 3 cities.

Thanks UALFAson for the clarification, the original discussion was about AA vs. DL being the "legacy of choice." I never was trying to say AA was somehow #1 over WN in BNA.

Cubsrule · Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:41 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Using Q3 2019:

The top 10 markets from BNA were: 1. NYC, 2. LA, 3. CHI, 4. BOS, 5. DC, 6. DFW, 7. DEN, 8. MIA, 9. PHL, 10. SF

So AA (& partners) serve all of BNA's top 6 markets, and 8 out of the top 10. DL serves 3.

If you break it out to top 25 markets, AA(& partners) still serve double the amount of markets that DL does, plus they have TATL thanks to BA.

AA serves 12 out of the top 20, so with LAS & TPA being places where AA is already adding p2p, those aren't far fetched additions, and if PHX surpasses ATL in O&D(they are essentially the same size O&D wise) that will get them to 15 out of the top 20.

Thinking about Q319, of the top 6, WN had a frequency advantage in three, flew to multiple airports in three, and flew to the preferred O&D airport in two others. So where, exactly, is the advantage for AA?

I don’t really like WN, but if their schedule is better I’ll fly them every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

UALFAson wrote:
Runway765 wrote:

The thing I wonder about BNA the most is, if WN were to get to 200+ flights, would ANY legacy be able to command a decent share of the market? AUS and RDU likely won't have that issue as they don't have a single carrier with the scale WN has at BNA.

I think you're both missing the point. No one honestly believes AA or DL is going to overtake WN for #1 at BNA. The question/point is, with so much growth and so much money flowing into the Nashville region, can AA become a strong enough #2 behind WN here to make some serious $, similar to how they are a solid #2 to UA at ORD but on a smaller scale.

Cubsrule, you yourself have said, travelers here are loyal to Southwest AND (American OR Delta). What it sounds like AA is trying to do is gain more of the people who might have DL as their #2 or get people to increase the proportion of flying they will do on AA vs WN.

Everything east of DEN is a 2-hour flight from BNA, which means you're getting a cup of a beverage and a cookie no matter who you fly, so service isn't really THAT differentiating of a factor. I agree with midwestindy that AA's route network out of BNA is far superior to DL's, which is the main reason why I switched allegiance from UA to AA when I moved here. American is just saying there's an opportunity for them to build loyalty with people like me who are relocating to BNA and these other cities who want a full-service carrier with a global footprint. UA's the one picking a fight with WN at DEN--I don't see that as what AA is trying to do in these 3 cities.

Thanks UALFAson for the clarification, the original discussion was about AA vs. DL being the "legacy of choice." I never was trying to say AA was somehow #1 over WN in BNA.

Right. And my original point was that when WN has a so much comprehensive network in a place like BNA, it’s not clear to me that legacies can move share between themselves with incremental network changes.

Jshank83 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:53 pm

Runway765 wrote:
Not surprising. These markets are really in a league of their own above other midsized cities/markets.

You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

I don’t get this WN is god at BNA stuff. IF AA wants gates I am sure they will get some. WN won’t get everything if others want some. The airport isn’t going to just say no and give it all to WN “IF” others want in.

runner13 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:59 pm

Think about the future employees that will be working for Amazon, Facebook, and Oracle in Nashville. All of these jobs will be six figures plus and those people will want to fly. I imagine AA is wanting to get those flyers that will be wanting to fly first class as well as corporate accounts. Just my opinion though

Runway765 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:01 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
Not surprising. These markets are really in a league of their own above other midsized cities/markets.

You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

I don’t get this WN is god at BNA stuff. IF AA wants gates I am sure they will get some. WN won’t get everything if others want some. The airport isn’t going to just say no and give it all to WN “IF” others want in.

WN will get what they want as they are, like in STL, the “anchor” so to speak in BNA. The airport already gave WN the whole of D and I see no reason they won’t get the satellite and the rest of C if they request it. If the likes of NK, F9, etc, want more gates, they can build the additional 7 gates on A north for themselves.

AA has 8 gates and wasn’t even fully utilizing them pre-COVID. Now they have more reasons to utilize them all.

Jshank83 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:30 pm

Runway765 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
Not surprising. These markets are really in a league of their own above other midsized cities/markets.

You are correct though about BNA. Considering the announcement the other day that they are building a satellite concourse, it appears WN is maneuvering to take some serious real estate there. AA will have a tough time.

I don’t get this WN is god at BNA stuff. IF AA wants gates I am sure they will get some. WN won’t get everything if others want some. The airport isn’t going to just say no and give it all to WN “IF” others want in.

WN will get what they want as they are, like in STL, the “anchor” so to speak in BNA. The airport already gave WN the whole of D and I see no reason they won’t get the satellite and the rest of C if they request it. If the likes of NK, F9, etc, want more gates, they can build the additional 7 gates on A north for themselves.

AA has 8 gates and wasn’t even fully utilizing them pre-COVID. Now they have more reasons to utilize them all.

I just don’t think that’s how it works. WN gets the world and the other airlines are told to screw off. Unless WN is paying for all the expansion themselves, which I doubt, the expansion falls on all airlines to pay for it out of fees. So if they want something I’d guess they have a shot. Will WN get most everything? Sure but I can’t see them being able to shut out everyone else.

Runway765 · Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:34 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

I don’t get this WN is god at BNA stuff. IF AA wants gates I am sure they will get some. WN won’t get everything if others want some. The airport isn’t going to just say no and give it all to WN “IF” others want in.

WN will get what they want as they are, like in STL, the “anchor” so to speak in BNA. The airport already gave WN the whole of D and I see no reason they won’t get the satellite and the rest of C if they request it. If the likes of NK, F9, etc, want more gates, they can build the additional 7 gates on A north for themselves.

AA has 8 gates and wasn’t even fully utilizing them pre-COVID. Now they have more reasons to utilize them all.

I just don’t think that’s how it works. WN gets the world and the other airlines are told to screw off. Unless WN is paying for all the expansion themselves, which I doubt, the expansion falls on all airlines to pay for it out of fees. So if they want something I’d guess they have a shot. Will WN get most everything? Sure but I can’t see them being able to shut out everyone else.

Like I said, they already got D and they didn’t directly pay for the whole cost of it. WN pays the most fees since they have the most flights. If WN can get what they want in a places like, DEN and PHX, for example, no reason they can’t in BNA. We’ll see.

Nicknuzzii · Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:23 am

PHLspecial wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It would be so stupid for AA to make PHL a reliever hub. Aside from ULCC, either WN or B6 will move into PHL if AA forgets about it for a long period of time.

Well hence why I said its a short term problem. Long term I have no idea when AA wants to take on more aircraft. I doubt B6 or WN would expand operations in PHL. B6 will continue to grow LGA, JFK, EWR in the comments that I have read. WN is quite weak in the northeast with BWI 100 miles away. I agree what I said is stupid but I do see PHL getting cut in the short term.

F9 might be the answer here.

ChrisPBacon · Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:56 am

usairways85 wrote:
You know that AA is running more than 180 flights/day at PHL now?

And how many of those 180 are parking at F terminal? With 50 seaters being removed from NYC and DCA, the only logical place for northeast markets to go is PHL. F survives because Piedmont handles F. Their labor contract has a scope clause which requires them to handle any sub-175 flying. There was a grievance over mainline handling a 145 arrival from YQB that had to use an A gate for customs. So there's a place for PHL in the system, but the importance of PHL is going to be greatly reduced in the near future.

jplatts · Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:57 am

runner13 wrote:
Think about the future employees that will be working for Amazon, Facebook, and Oracle in Nashville. All of these jobs will be six figures plus and those people will want to fly. I imagine AA is wanting to get those flyers that will be wanting to fly first class as well as corporate accounts. Just my opinion though

AS already serves SEA nonstop from BNA, and AS can target the FF base that AA has in the BNA market with its existing BNA-SEA nonstop flight. AS adding BNA-SJC/SFO nonstop service might also be a possibility with AS still serving some non-AA hub destinations nonstop from both SJC and SFO and with the significant presence that Amazon, Facebook, and Oracle have in Silicon Valley.

In addition to AS adding BNA-SJC/SFO nonstop service, AS adding BNA-PDX nonstop service is also a possibility with PDX being one of the top destinations without nonstop service from BNA.

AS also already offers first class service on its BNA-SEA nonstop flights, and AS would also do so on BNA-PDX/SFO/SJC if AS adds BNA-PDX/SFO/SJC nonstop service.

While B6 already serves BNA nonstop from BOS, AA adding BNA-BOS nonstop service is a possibility as AA can offer first class service whereas B6 doesn't currently offer its Mint cabin on the BNA-BOS route and WN doesn't offer first class service on any of its flights.

dfwjim1 · Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:11 am

clrd4t8koff wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy

While the 757, 767, A330 and E190's are permanently retired, I'd assume all the 737-800's will be reactivated soon. Didn't AA recently announce their whole fleet will be flying again by the end of May?

In the back of my mind I keep thinking that AA was a bit premature in retiring their 757s.

kbmiflyer · Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:50 am

SESGDL wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:

While the 757, 767, A330 and E190's are permanently retired, I'd assume all the 737-800's will be reactivated soon. Didn't AA recently announce their whole fleet will be flying again by the end of May?

Not to my knowledge. I had read that nearly 70 737-800s are being removed from the fleet. Perhaps that has changed.

Jeremy

AA has a fleet of about 75 737-800s that were delivered between 1999 and 2001. For the most part all of them are parked, but a few of them do appear to be back in service, including N907AN, N923AN, and N924AN. The original plan was to replace these with the MAX's as they came in. I believe AA has around 45 Max's delivered now and they are taking new deliveries.

n917me · Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:07 am

I honestly don't think AA wants to be a hub or a significantly larger carrier in BNA. I think maybe 10 more flights.. around 60 total. Pre covid it was 51.
There are plenty of passengers to go around. WN will not clobber anyone.. AA and WN compete on several routes and there are plenty of passengers to go around.

Italianflyer · Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:36 am

OK....legit question and I'd love to hear measured responses other than a net snark.
Why are DL & AA telegraphing intentions so far out? Sure, if this was growth coming up in the next quarter or two that's one thing. But broadcasting these nebulous, strategic, intentions "sometime" soon really boggles my mind. Is this a carrot and stick aimed at airport authorities? Is this a Wall Street game? Is this an overture to get unions to sit downband talk? The name of the game since the regulation has been high risk poker so you keep your cards close to your chest.
They're giving the competition plenty of time to circle the wagons. Why blab???

LCDFlight · Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:10 am

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
As much as anything, all of this feels like a strategic shot fired at DL. All three were markets were being emphasized by DL prior to the pandemic, even though "DL focus city" had yet to mean anything at AUS and BNA. WN is obviously a target here as well, but it just feels like this is meant for DL as much as anyone.

This will be fun to watch.

Good point. DL may have said that, but I think AA still has more traditional stronghold in AUS (AA is undeniably more of a Texas airline), and BNA (former AA hub) than DL, right? That leaves RDU, which is more of a DL stronghold, despite AA running RDU-LHR on 777 for many years.

Anyway, it is not so simple to say which airline moved first.

DeltaRules · Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:40 am

Midwestindy wrote:
"Certainly in those three cities, and a handful of others out there, there's real opportunity to go and profitably expand"

In case anybody's wondering, CLE, CMH, CVG, IND and MEM were explicitly mentioned in another story as at least a few of the "handful".

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