PSA727 wrote:ContinentalEWR wrote:PHL worked as a TATL gateway, pre-COVID, because of AA's operation and feed there, and tis dominance. AA has virtually no competition at PHL to Europe other than LH. It is a big market, but some of the traffic there bleeds to EWR. If the B6/AA partnership does pay dividends, I can see AA grow more JFK TATL at the expense of PHL, with routes like VCE and ZRH being moved up to JFK (ZRH actually got moved from JFK to PHL in 2015 but was a consistent JFK flight since it launched in 1987). The A321XLR will also make a few more routes out of JFK compelling for AA assuming the partnership holds. What you will not see is AA flying more TATL out of ORD beyond the seasonal successes it has had with FCO, BCN, and ATH pre-pandemic. AA can't make CDG work consistently year-round out of ORD and almost everything it would fly out of ORD would overlap with UA. AA has hinted the future of its long haul network will be smaller and more focused. I see more Europe from JFK and MIA, less from PHL, more TPAC out of SEA (they have to, with AS providing all that feed), and China other than PVG served solely from DFW. ORD will have LHR year round and the seasonal TATL and that's about it.
Last summer, AA had planned to fly from ORD to LHR, CDG, DUB, FCO, VCE, ATH, MAD, BCN, PRG, BUD, and KRK. That would have been the most TATL destinations from an AA hub, after PHL. And a lot more than AA flew out of there over the past several years. But if PHL is so great in the TATL scheme of things, why are many of the routes they still have planned for this summer not expected to start until August 17th? Is that when peak connectivity demand is expected to kick in? Or is it really just because they have yet to make their now-regular covid schedule cuts beyond that date?
With the 763s and 752s pulled from the fleet, PHL TATL flying is not going back to its old self.
Every single one of those ORD flights you mention, except for LHR are seasonal and leisure focused. CDG operates a bit longer. All of it mostly leisure focused. AA has done very well with FCO, ATH, and BCN out of ORD prior to the pandemic and no doubt, will do so again once this recover. No one ever said PHL was great in the TATL scheme of things, It is what AA has to work with and pre-pandemic, worked well. The routes that will restart on or around August 17th are less about AA and more about what's actually possible in Europe, given the much slower distribution of vaccines in Europe vs. the United States. I doubt you will see high demand for Europe this summer, from anywhere. People have already planned their summer vacations and it is still tricky to visit Europe and restrictions haven't been fully lifted (nor have travel restrictions) with the exception of Greece and Croatia.
AA has not had a major year-round TATL footprint at ORD since the 1990s when it flew to ARN, ZRH, TXL (briefly), FRA, MXP, CDG, LHR, MAN, BHX, BRU, etc...
The PHL adjustment doesn't have much to do with the 763 and 752 removals. Prior to COVID it was already determined that the 787 would replace much of the 763/752 flying out of PHL to Europe. As to how and when PHL might see its TATL portfolio recover now very much depends on the success or failure of the B6/AA alliance, which has refocused TATL to JFK, where yields are broadly higher and demand is a better mix of business and leisure.
