gwrudolph wrote:

AA averaging 21 passengers a day—wow! Do we think DL and UA are that low as well?

They can’t do anything about it, Australia has a strict arrival cap, 35 I believe is the max pax allowed on a scheduled pax service, and you have to have MIQ space booked aswell.

ZK-NBT wrote:

dcajet wrote:

acavpics wrote:

I think the biggest factor here is Australia's sluggish vaccination pace. My cousin living in Melbourne, who is in her 30's, told me that she will be eligible for the vaccine "some time by the end of 2021." At that rate, I don't expect to see many international flights to the country return until well into 2022.

Pick up the pace Aussies!

I can't understand why that is the case. Other less developed countries or less affluent ones are miles ahead of Australia when it comes to COVID vaccinations.

The reality is Australia and NZ got off lightly overall and other less developed countries are more in need.

Well... not sure if I agree with that. Sounds more like an excuse than sound public health policy, So are they going to live in isolation and going from lockdown crisis to lockdown crisis for the next year every time new cases appear?

Airlines will eventually stop flying to Australia if this continues for much longer

"Despite all the effort they've put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time," BARA executive director Barry Abrams said in a media statement.

dcajet wrote:

I can't understand why that is the case. Other less developed countries or less affluent ones are miles ahead of Australia when it comes to COVID vaccinations.

Its very simple, really.

Since this pandemic began some 17 months ago in February 2020, Australia has experienced relatively minimal societal impact (less than 930 total deaths) due to the effectiveness of closing of national borders. This has meant a comparatively lesser degree of immediate need for vaccine in this country. Hence, it is easy to understand that we (as a nation) were more concerned about other countries need where there was far more immediate / desperate demand.

It also didn't help that our Government strategy rested on only two approved vaccines, one of which is being manufactured locally and is still considered controversial whilst not approved for use in the USA, despite it's European / British origin. The other being Pfizer.

You suggested that Aussies should "pick up the pace". I am sure we would, if we could get more shipments of Pfizer as well as promised Moderna and Novavax - the latter two where initial shipments are expected during Q3 or Q4. Luckily, Pfizer's management has recognised the issue and is already accelerating deliveries to Australia.

Oh, and BTW - a number of upthread comments have referred to "lack of demand" across the USA-Australia route. There is NO lack of demand. What there is is a complete lack of Australian Government approval to allow foreign nationals into Australia or Australian citizens out. Believe me, there is plenty of demand within Australia for travel anywhere - and I am perfectly sure that the same reciprocal situation exists outside Australia.

What we are wary of is .. importing further cases of active COVID by allowing unfettered travel into the country until a reasonable degree of vaccination coverage has been achieved. Many may disagree with this policy - but it has served Australia well, so far ~ but at an admittedly high economic cost.

gwrudolph wrote:

AA averaging 21 passengers a day—wow! Do we think DL and UA are that low as well?

Yes. The quota for entry to Australia means that most flights into Australia a legally limited to 20-25 pax max. Maybe a few more for some flights but this is around average for all (UA, DL, AA, SQ, EK, QR, CX and whoever else flies to anaywhere in Australia with NZ to/from New Zealand being an exception). Quotas are given to airlines and then airlines decide who they fly in - and in general highest fares get priority. That is reason that some people have paid $10,000 for one-way LHR-SYD because they were desperate and economy class seats are almost unavailable and if they are available they cost a fortune ($2000 and up).

With the latest cut in entry quotas, some airlines have threatened to stop flying to Australia and it seems AA is the first one to do so.

Pi7472000 wrote:

This makes sense. American does not have a long history serving Australia with its own metal.

I suspect you accidentally confused American with Delta Airlines !?

Polot wrote:

I don’t know why this is getting so much attention. With Australia’s borders almost completely closed there is currently no traffic on this route. Flight restart will continue to be constantly pushed back until borders open again. As more international flights are opening up (whether filled with passengers or not) and supply chains adjusted cargo only flights are not as lucrative as they once were.

I wish people would stop saying there is no traffic on these routes, or anywhere internationally. I have taken over a dozen longhaul flights in and out of heavily hit countries, and people are flying. Ive been on 777-300ER's with 2 in F, 5-20 in J and 40+ in Y (throughout 2020). People have been flying.

There is a lot of Hollywood traffic to Australia, on full F and J class (when operating) or via private. But commercial is running into Australia on full F and J fares for sure. I was not aware AA was operating the route (because I have not looked) but flights are going in and out, albeit heavily restricted.

I know this may sound selfish and I am not being serious, but who else thinks 21 pax on a 14 hour long haul flight would be total paradise! I do! pity about the circumstances.

dcajet wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

dcajet wrote:

I can't understand why that is the case. Other less developed countries or less affluent ones are miles ahead of Australia when it comes to COVID vaccinations.

The reality is Australia and NZ got off lightly overall and other less developed countries are more in need.

Well... not sure if I agree with that. Sounds more like an excuse than sound public health policy, So are they going to live in isolation and going from lockdown crisis to lockdown crisis for the next year every time new cases appear?

Airlines will eventually stop flying to Australia if this continues for much longer

"Despite all the effort they've put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time," BARA executive director Barry Abrams said in a media statement.

Keep wondering, bit this has been their take all the way through. yep I guess they are going to with what they have been doing throughout the pandemic, I’m not saying I agree with it but we don’t want a situation like the US or UK had earlier in the pandemic.

Yep airlines May stop flying to Australia but these aren’t normal times.

Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10.

https://australianaviation.com.au/2021/ ... -caps-cut/


The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.
https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-a ... c96868ace3

a36001 wrote:

I know this may sound selfish and I am not being serious, but who else thinks 21 pax on a 14 hour long haul flight would be total paradise! I do! pity about the circumstances.

I flew a DFW-GRU segment in February where I was the only PE pax and there were 36 passengers total on a 789. It was weird.

usflyer msp wrote:

a36001 wrote:

I know this may sound selfish and I am not being serious, but who else thinks 21 pax on a 14 hour long haul flight would be total paradise! I do! pity about the circumstances.

I flew a DFW-GRU segment in February where I was the only PE pax and there were 36 passengers total on a 789. It was weird.

I fly regularly to Brazil and Colombia, and at least in my experience there is a surprising difference in load factors.. most of my Colombia flights are packed, while I've experienced several almost empty Brazil flights.

cedarjet wrote:

Australia has halved the cap on arrivals. 6,000 to 3,000 per week. Interesting they’re shooting for zero Covid. Wonder if it’s worth the effort. Covid will be with us forever after all. Will they keep the borders closed forever?

Australia would be better off pulling their finger out and getting vaccinations done. The Australian vaccination rates are really behind the rest of the G20 (bottom 4), because the federal government dragged their feet on getting orders in, particularly with Pfizer. The result being that State Governments are screaming for supplies that just aren't there. It's an absolutely shocking and embarrassing mess, and I am flabbergasted that the Federal Government seemingly isn't paying any political price for their incompetence.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?country=BHR~BRA~CHN~FRA~DEU~IND~JPN~TUR~ARE~GBR~USA~OWID_WRL~AUS~CAN~ARG~IDN~ITA~European+Union~ZAF~SAU~KOR~MEX~RUS

I don't think Australia's borders will open fully until late 2022, or even into 2023.

LAXLHR wrote:

Polot wrote:

I don’t know why this is getting so much attention. With Australia’s borders almost completely closed there is currently no traffic on this route. Flight restart will continue to be constantly pushed back until borders open again. As more international flights are opening up (whether filled with passengers or not) and supply chains adjusted cargo only flights are not as lucrative as they once were.

I wish people would stop saying there is no traffic on these routes, or anywhere internationally. I have taken over a dozen longhaul flights in and out of heavily hit countries, and people are flying. Ive been on 777-300ER's with 2 in F, 5-20 in J and 40+ in Y (throughout 2020). People have been flying.

There is a lot of Hollywood traffic to Australia, on full F and J class (when operating) or via private. But commercial is running into Australia on full F and J fares for sure. I was not aware AA was operating the route (because I have not looked) but flights are going in and out, albeit heavily restricted.

So you were on 77Ws with <100 people on board. Hardly backing up your argument there. It should be obvious that I didn’t literally mean no one was flying.

There is currently not a lot of Hollywood traffic because the Australia caps/restrictions.

DCA350 wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

a36001 wrote:

I know this may sound selfish and I am not being serious, but who else thinks 21 pax on a 14 hour long haul flight would be total paradise! I do! pity about the circumstances.

I flew a DFW-GRU segment in February where I was the only PE pax and there were 36 passengers total on a 789. It was weird.

I fly regularly to Brazil and Colombia, and at least in my experience there is a surprising difference in load factors.. most of my Colombia flights are packed, while I've experienced several almost empty Brazil flights.

Brazil's COVID situation has improved, somewhat but it remains a major center of infection and spread so there's not much demand to fly there.

kimshep wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

This makes sense. American does not have a long history serving Australia with its own metal.

I suspect you accidentally confused American with Delta Airlines !?

AA suspending LAX-SYD has nothing to do with years of service. LAX-SYD on AA has operated since 12/2015. AA and QF are partners and have a JV. It is AA's sole Australia route, yes, but so is DL's LAX-SYD and while DL has a partner (sort of) in Virgin Australia, I'm not sure under the current COVID circumstances or VA's financial condition, any of that matters. AA served Australia and New Zealand in the early 1990s on its own metal for a short time and has had a code-share and partnership with QF since then, so the argument that AA is suspending SYD temporarily based off its history of flying there is stupid. The reality is Australia has capped inbound arrivals to very small numbers, there is no demand (outside of cargo) and the logistics of crew layovers etc...make it an expensive long haul with few passengers at the moment.

CostaDelSol90 wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

910A wrote:

American is suspending Sydney from the end of August to a least the end of October..



https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... 62P6rl54YM

But AKL is still being flown AA, I'd imagine? A route like LAX-SYD has too many carriers already. QF is the only carrier that needs to fly that route for AA. AA has had their code on QF flight, a very long time. Isn't the AA/QF tie-up revenue shared?

Except that Qantas isn’t flying that route at the moment…

Normally this route has QF, VA, DL and UA. With considerable transfer also occurring on NZ, and moderate transfer on FJ and believe it or not CZ. This has everything to do with borders remaining closed and nothing to do with latent demand.

More than just that. VA has permanently ceased operating this route after their Administration (Bankruptcy), and has retired their 777-300 fleet. So they’re not coming back. And New Zealand is also locked down, except for a “travel bubble” with Australia. My personal thought is that Australia’s vaccination rates have been a bit lower than many countries, which hasn’t helped a lot.

ADent wrote:

Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

a36001 wrote:

I know this may sound selfish and I am not being serious, but who else thinks 21 pax on a 14 hour long haul flight would be total paradise! I do! pity about the circumstances.

Well, let me tell you. The past 6 months I have flown both JFK-SIN 18.5 hours with 21 pax and LAX-SIN 16.5h with 30pax and I was not complaining about the light loads!

AirKevin wrote:

ADent wrote:

Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

Yes, that is a bit ridiculous, isn’t it! Guessing sooner or later UA and DL will pull off of their SYD routes as well.

AirKevin wrote:

ADent wrote:

Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

dcajet wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

dcajet wrote:

I can't understand why that is the case. Other less developed countries or less affluent ones are miles ahead of Australia when it comes to COVID vaccinations.

The reality is Australia and NZ got off lightly overall and other less developed countries are more in need.

Well... not sure if I agree with that. Sounds more like an excuse than sound public health policy, So are they going to live in isolation and going from lockdown crisis to lockdown crisis for the next year every time new cases appear?

Airlines will eventually stop flying to Australia if this continues for much longer

"Despite all the effort they've put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time," BARA executive director Barry Abrams said in a media statement.

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.

kimshep wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

This makes sense. American does not have a long history serving Australia with its own metal.

I suspect you accidentally confused American with Delta Airlines !?

Not at all. American does not have a long history of its own metal in Australia. Makes much more sense to have Qantas fly routes between Australia and the U.S. for OneWorld when regulations allow.

Australia has done well during COVID (much better than the U.S.), but they may not reopen to U.S. travel until 2023 or beyond which is fine. Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.

Pi7472000 wrote:

Australia has done well during COVID (much better than the U.S.), but they may not reopen to U.S. travel until 2023 or beyond which is fine. Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.

You’ll see DL return sooner not because of service levels but because unlike AA DL no longer has an Australian partner on the route to put passengers on.

I would have it suspended longer personally. I really can’t see it opening up with COVID raging right now.

gwrudolph wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

ADent wrote:

Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

Yes, that is a bit ridiculous, isn’t it! Guessing sooner or later UA and DL will pull off of their SYD routes as well.

One assumes that UA and DL must be filling the belly on the current flights.....surely?

UA must be or else they wouldn’t be flying both LAX and SFO, they would have combined them into one flight.

freshwater wrote:

dcajet wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

The reality is Australia and NZ got off lightly overall and other less developed countries are more in need.

Well... not sure if I agree with that. Sounds more like an excuse than sound public health policy, So are they going to live in isolation and going from lockdown crisis to lockdown crisis for the next year every time new cases appear?

Airlines will eventually stop flying to Australia if this continues for much longer

"Despite all the effort they've put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time," BARA executive director Barry Abrams said in a media statement.

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.

What do the government do then?

Pi7472000 wrote:

Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.

There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.

superjeff wrote:

A has permanently ceased operating this route after their Administration (Bankruptcy), and has retired their 777-300 fleet. So they’re not coming back.

Virgin is interested in resuming long haul services in a couple of years, once borders reopen and there is sufficient demand. The 777s won’t be back, more likely 787-9.

hawaiian717 wrote:

superjeff wrote:

A has permanently ceased operating this route after their Administration (Bankruptcy), and has retired their 777-300 fleet. So they’re not coming back.

Virgin is interested in resuming long haul services in a couple of years, once borders reopen and there is sufficient demand. The 777s won’t be back, more likely 787-9.

If we reach a point where vaccinations hold, infection rates decline, and Australia and the rest of the world can truly and safely reopen, I can see a flood of demand for US-Australia services and a resumption of Virgin Australia long haul services.

spinotter wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

ADent wrote:

Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.

AirKevin wrote:

spinotter wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.

That is something the Australian government has yet to solve for....Those Aussie nationals have been stuck abroad for over a year.

DCA350 wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

a36001 wrote:

I know this may sound selfish and I am not being serious, but who else thinks 21 pax on a 14 hour long haul flight would be total paradise! I do! pity about the circumstances.

I flew a DFW-GRU segment in February where I was the only PE pax and there were 36 passengers total on a 789. It was weird.

I fly regularly to Brazil and Colombia, and at least in my experience there is a surprising difference in load factors.. most of my Colombia flights are packed, while I've experienced several almost empty Brazil flights.

Keep in mind travelers from Brazil are not currently allowed entry into the USA unless you are a US citizen/permanent resident or fall within some other exceptions. Brazilians, in normal times, make up for most of the travelers between the two countries. Flights to the US from neighboring Argentina are packed to the gills, have heard of one week or more waiting time if on stand by,

ZK-NBT wrote:

freshwater wrote:

dcajet wrote:

Well... not sure if I agree with that. Sounds more like an excuse than sound public health policy, So are they going to live in isolation and going from lockdown crisis to lockdown crisis for the next year every time new cases appear?

Airlines will eventually stop flying to Australia if this continues for much longer

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.

What do the government do then?

For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.

spinotter wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

ADent wrote:

Sydney’s cap was cut to 1,505 per week, so presumably that 21 would be cut to 10. The airlines were warned not to raise the fare too high in response to the cuts.

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

It was reported that the NSW Government (Sydney being the State capital) did not support the incoming passenger cuts in national Cabinet, which were pushed by other states. Most incoming passengers come via SYD.

I suspect AA and others were hopeful of an earlier reopening and were picking up decent cargo loads to cover for the reduced pax numbers. Clearly that isn't enough at the moment. AA will come back when passengers can travel.

Support for vaccination is high here, but supply has been low. The transmissability of the Delta variant (as opposed to DL which occasionally has two A359 in SYD at the same time) is also having a significant impact, and challenging the majority supported position of overall elimination of Covid. For those from outside ANZ, the experience of eliminating Covid and returning life to normal apart from overseas travel every so often seems very difficult top comprehend (my family in Boston included).

The Aussie policies were ether result of Covid killing a lot of people an the Just Gov had no desire to see major inroads hiring them.

The problem TODAY is that Delta (the virus, not airline) is coming on strong - more aggressive in both the spreading and killing. The current estimate of opening again does not include the horrors of Delta. I look for tighter controls into 2022 - well after their summer breaks.

Hate to think of the financial horrors QF is facing with these cuts, especially with the 380's not generating revenues.

Hey guys,
American will be back, in my opinion. I am not surprised that they (or any other) foreign airline temporarily ceases services to Australia. It's made mainstream media here but no real fuss. No backlash against them unlike when Emirates pulled out all-so-briefly last year with Tim Clark showboating before retreating in the face of some negative media.
Lots of foreign carries have temporarily pulled out of Australia which is completely understandable considering the closed borders and severely restricted passenger numbers also.
It's kind of ironic that the foreign flight crew who 'set off' the current Delta crisis in Australia by unintentionally spreading it to an unprotected, unvaccinated limo driver was one of the airlines benefitting most from closed Aussie borders, FedEx!
I look forward to American returning, probably sometime in 2022, once the Delta variant is under control.
As for Virgin Australia getting new widebodies to fly transpacific , that's a whole separate thread!
Take care,
Bunumuring

freshwater wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

freshwater wrote:

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.

What do the government do then?

For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.

Atleast they had a hotel quarantine operation, not ideal but what do you do? I’m in NZ and it does seem an over reaction when you get 1-2 cases which causes our alert level operation to increase, overall we have done well but there really isn’t a plan it seems in NZ or Australia, how do you be on par with other developed nations when we got off lightly overall and the pandemic is world wide with only so many vaccines and others need them a lot more urgently?

Is it all on the federal government really? Some of the states have been pretty petty at times in their approach. It’s fluid and a changing situation.

ClassicLover wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.

There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.

I would disagree. American does not have the best reputation in Australia and Qantas has much better service than American. American can serve Australia through its OneWorld partner. Air fares will be high, which will lower demand, and there will not be a need for American to serve Australia. Delta, United, Qantas, and Virgin Australia will be sufficient. It may be 2023 or after before travel resumes between the countries with COVID not being under control in the U.S. It is not surprising to see American bow out of Australia first.

Pi7472000 wrote:

ClassicLover wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.

There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.

I would disagree. American does not have the best reputation in Australia and Qantas has much better service than American. American can serve Australia through its OneWorld partner. Air fares will be high, which will lower demand, and there will not be a need for American to serve Australia. Delta, United, Qantas, and Virgin Australia will be sufficient. It may be 2023 or after before travel resumes between the countries with COVID not being under control in the U.S. It is not surprising to see American bow out of Australia first.

It’s the same for everyone though, QF aren’t flying to the US other than a very small number of freight or repatriation flights ex MEL/BNE-LAX mainly. QF don’t currently have the fleet once things return to normal to fly everywhere either so AA will be back as part of the JBA. VA won’t be back anytime soon as they no longer have any long haul aircraft.

gwrudolph wrote:

AA averaging 21 passengers a day—wow! Do we think DL and UA are that low as well?

Most probably is because they have that pax allocation number by the Australian government, and I think now the number are being reduce on all airlines, so basically is a cargo flight and little repatriation also.

freshwater wrote:

For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.

Initially the strategy worked well, but they can't keep the country isolated forever, and sooner or later the virus will arrive, vaccination is key and in that aspect Australians they were very relax because the virus was at a very little level.

AirKevin wrote:

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.

Clearly the Aussie politicians are not very worry about that, otherwise after more than a year they could have allow all of them back, 34000 is less than a 100 pax a day, they could easily make them quarantine in hotels, that for a long time were basically empty, it's the citizens who pay for it anyway, airplane fare, hotel quarantine, etc....

Pi7472000 wrote:

ClassicLover wrote:

Pi7472000 wrote:

Demand will take years to return to pre COVID levels with higher airfares and restrictions. Delta has much better inflight service than American so I could see them being able to return to pre COVID levels in Australia sooner than American.

There is plenty of demand - as soon as Australia allows Australians to travel overseas, there will be an explosion of travel. I think you'll find things will ramp up faster than you anticipate. I also think you're wrong regarding Delta. Both airlines will do well. AA has the edge though, because 12 million Australians (out of a population of 25 million) are members of Qantas Frequent Flyer, which is oneworld, which favours American Airlines.

I would disagree. American does not have the best reputation in Australia and Qantas has much better service than American. American can serve Australia through its OneWorld partner. Air fares will be high, which will lower demand, and there will not be a need for American to serve Australia. Delta, United, Qantas, and Virgin Australia will be sufficient. It may be 2023 or after before travel resumes between the countries with COVID not being under control in the U.S. It is not surprising to see American bow out of Australia first.

American has not bowed out of Australia. It is suspending service for two months due to Australian government mandated passenger caps. Others will follow, it’s not economical right now. Qantas has not flown to LA for more than a year. Virgin Australia does not have any long haul aircraft and can no longer fly to LA.

ZK-NBT wrote:

freshwater wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

What do the government do then?

For starters, not completely botch the hotel quarantine operation who's success relies on the expense of life changing and often ruinous lockdowns when breaches occur. We shouldn't have needed this latest round of lockdowns if the virus hadn't breached our borders yet again, and we wouldn't need to be sticking to this utopian eradication goal if our population was vaccinated on par with other developed nations.

Responsibility for these two failures lands squarely on the Australian Federal Government.

Atleast they had a hotel quarantine operation, not ideal but what do you do? I’m in NZ and it does seem an over reaction when you get 1-2 cases which causes our alert level operation to increase, overall we have done well but there really isn’t a plan it seems in NZ or Australia, how do you be on par with other developed nations when we got off lightly overall and the pandemic is world wide with only so many vaccines and others need them a lot more urgently?

Is it all on the federal government really? Some of the states have been pretty petty at times in their approach. It’s fluid and a changing situation.

The Federal government could have moved the quarantine operation away from the major capital cities after the first few breaches of the system resulted in economically devastating lockdowns, as requested by numerous state governments. We had the money, the space and the time to do much, much better. And the vaccine rollout is criminal in its incompetence.

AirKevin wrote:

spinotter wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

So they just expect the airlines to bleed even more money?

Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.

Australia is trying for zero infections at the moment, if I understand the rationale for the many lockdowns in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth. Political leaders must decide whether to let those 34,000 back in quickly, slowly, or not at all until vaccination levels are adequate.

ContinentalEWR wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

spinotter wrote:

Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.

That is something the Australian government has yet to solve for....Those Aussie nationals have been stuck abroad for over a year.

migair54 wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.

Clearly the Aussie politicians are not very worry about that, otherwise after more than a year they could have allow all of them back, 34000 is less than a 100 pax a day, they could easily make them quarantine in hotels, that for a long time were basically empty, it's the citizens who pay for it anyway, airplane fare, hotel quarantine, etc....

Yikes. How do they even manage to afford that. Hotel costs can't be cheap, and I wonder if they would even still have jobs at that point.

spinotter wrote:

AirKevin wrote:

spinotter wrote:

Until the level of vaccination is higher, Australian authorities would probably prefer no incoming flights or passengers at all. So they make it financially difficult.

So then what do you do with the 34,000 Australians that appear to be stuck in another country that are trying to get back.

Australia is trying for zero infections at the moment, if I understand the rationale for the many lockdowns in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth. Political leaders must decide whether to let those 34,000 back in quickly, slowly, or not at all until vaccination levels are adequate.

Hopefully they figure something out. I can't imagine being stuck away from home for over a year.

Australia has reached elimination several times during the last 18 months without vaccinations, through strictly controlled borders and quarantine. As far as can be made out, the latest outbreak started via transmission from a FedEx crew to an unvaccinated limo driver.

The nation overwhelmingly supports a pathway to elimination, but equally knows little else. Until vaccination is available to all (and that increasingly includes teens and even younger) I don't see free movement into and out of Australia as likely.

AA won't return until passenger caps are either greatly increased or removed altogether. If QF isn't flying its money spinner routes, it's hard to see why AA would bother.

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.[/quote]

At the moment it is difficult to keep politics out of an aviation forum but that just about sums things up in OZ. I totally agree. Our Fed Govt buggered up the vaccine rollout and they have only now 'admitted', in a round about way Aust is about 3months behind where we should be. And the complete mess up of our 'hotel quarantine' by Fed & State Govts is whole other beast. I could go on but I found myself typing a very lengthy post. We are constantly bombarded with our Govts blaming eachother and no one taking responsibilty.
Sorry if that turned into a rant..just had to get it off my chest as I sit at home unable to travel further than 5kms from my home as my Govt says I am not 'special' enough to travel any further.

undertheradar wrote:

Government incompetence, nothing more, nothing less.

At the moment it is difficult to keep politics out of an aviation forum but that just about sums things up in OZ. I totally agree. Our Fed Govt buggered up the vaccine rollout and they have only now 'admitted', in a round about way Aust is about 3months behind where we should be. And the complete mess up of our 'hotel quarantine' by Fed & State Govts is whole other beast. I could go on but I found myself typing a very lengthy post. We are constantly bombarded with our Govts blaming eachother and no one taking responsibilty.
Sorry if that turned into a rant..just had to get it off my chest as I sit at home unable to travel further than 5kms from my home as my Govt says I am not 'special' enough to travel any further.

SYD is within my 10km exercise zone, so I'm fine. I was loving regular GE90 startups, including AA. I'm getting a bit bored with 787s, although I'll miss the AA livery.

As for HQ, I'd actaully argue that it's been more resilient than it probably had a right to be, making the occasional leaks even more frustrating.

Interesting timing for a nonstop DOM-Miami. The big traffic driver on and off the island to the States was Ross U, which relocated to Barbados after Hurricane Maria. I'll be curious to see how they handle that approach, because I heard people on this forum for years saying that jets can't handle the over mountain approach--never mind that 727 freighters did it regularly.

Edit: it would appear that AA did some proving runs in the last month or so, and the aircraft approached over the mountains.

https://dominicanewsonline.com/news/hom ... ts-shores/