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Ishrion
Topic Author
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:51 pm

Threads are being transitioned for 2021, so welcome to the American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Link to the 2020 thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437857

New Long-Haul Routes for 2021:

- BOS-LHR
- DFW-AKL/TLV/PKX
- CLT-HNL
- LAX-CHC
- JFK-ATH/TLV (currently not available for sale)
- SEA-BLR/LHR/PVG

Long-Haul Routes Cut for 2021 and Onward:

- CLT-BCN/CDG/FCO
- DFW-MUC
- LAX-EZE/GRU/HKG/PEK/PVG
- MIA-BSB/MXP
- ORD-VCE (BUD/KRK/PRG did not begin)
- PHL-BUD/DBV/MAN/PRG/TXL (CMN/KEF did not begin, VCE suspended until 2022)

Notes From 2020:

- Early and complete retirement for Embraer 190, Boeing 757, Boeing 767, and Airbus A330 fleets.
- Introduction of 777-200ER to CLT (PHL delayed to 2021)
- Introduction of 787-8 to PHL/MIA
- New/renewed partnerships with GOL, Alaska Airlines, Qatar Airways, and JetBlue

2021 Possibilities:

- Will we see American continue to grow its long-haul network out of SEA with the Alaska partnership?
- How will AA reshape its short and long-haul network in the Northeast with the JetBlue partnership?
- Will AA launch flights to Doha with the Qatar Airways partnership as they were evaluating it?
- Latin America and the Caribbean will be a huge focus for AA in 2021 with the addition of new frequencies and widebody flights to destinations like Bogotá, Medellín, and Quito. Additionally, with the renewed GOL partnership and losing LATAM in 2019, will AA continue to pursue additional growth in the regions?
- Will AA continue adding new point-to-point routes? In 2020, AA added notable ones such as EYW-MCO/TPA, SMF-SJD, CUN-IND/CMH, FLL-BOS/PAP, and more.
- What kind of changes will each hub encounter with the current conditions?
Leaving the forums. You may know where to find me.
 
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cathay747
Posts: 1568
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 8:47 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 4:23 pm

I think that ANYTHING for 2021 is in doubt at this point, most particularly anything related to int'l., especially long-haul. All those routes you list at the top IMHO are optimistic projections except for CLT-HNL.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
AC4500
Posts: 660
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:20 pm

AA's LAX operation will be an interesting place to watch in 2021. Right now, it seems like their LAX regional route network is really suffering at the moment in comparison to regional networks out of their other hubs.

As a result, DL appears to be taking the lead on many LAX domestic markets, which makes me wonder why DL is maintaining a stronger LAX route network than AA is at the moment when demand is virtually zero.
Next:
UA: PDX-EWR-DCA
WN: BWI-STL-PDX
 
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SumChristianus
Posts: 698
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:00 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:27 pm

AC4500 wrote:
AA's LAX operation will be an interesting place to watch in 2021. Right now, it seems like their LAX regional route network is really suffering at the moment in comparison to regional networks out of their other hubs.

As a result, DL appears to be taking the lead on many LAX domestic markets, which makes me wonder why DL is maintaining a stronger LAX route network than AA is at the moment when demand is virtually zero.


An interesting outcome out of all of this mess might be AA reevaluating the PHX versus LAX balance if population and demand migrations we've begun to observe continue...

Since LAX crashed further in demand than PHX did in demand through all this as California took a bigger hit from the lockdown economics it could have pushed AA to put (and to put in the future) a higher emphasis and more interest on Phoenix. Not that it means anything with regard to international demand which is going to be down for awhile everywhere, but PHX might have gotten a new lease on life within the AA network vis a vis the seemingly fated death by being squeezed between DFW and LAX.

I definitely see PHX at least returning to normal faster than any eventual comeback at LAX for AA
UA DL LH NW AA WN
"Gratia non tollit naturam, sed perficit"
 
Boof02671
Posts: 2543
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:53 pm

BOS-LHR isnt new. They’ve flown it before, suspended it, turned it over to BA, it’s a resumption.
 
deltairlines
Posts: 7236
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:18 pm

AC4500 wrote:
AA's LAX operation will be an interesting place to watch in 2021. Right now, it seems like their LAX regional route network is really suffering at the moment in comparison to regional networks out of their other hubs.

As a result, DL appears to be taking the lead on many LAX domestic markets, which makes me wonder why DL is maintaining a stronger LAX route network than AA is at the moment when demand is virtually zero.


Something to remember is that Delta is dropping a massive ton of money into physical facilities at LAX right now - close to $2 Billion there alone. With that type of an investment, Delta really can't afford to pull LAX down.

American on the other hand has a more than adequate facility in Terminal 4 - not the nicest in the world, but nowhere close to a dump. Longer term with the AS and B6 partnerships, it could behoove AA just to consolidate back to Terminal 4 and let JetBlue take over the gates they have in Terminal 5 (with Alaska in 6). American in LAX could very well end up being hubs (JFK, ORD, DFW, CLT, PHL, PHX, MIA, DCA), key domestic cities (BOS, IND, BNA, STL, SAT, AUS, SFO), Hawaii and international. Basically the stuff they need their own metal on for corporate contracts and/or other competitive reasons, and let the stuff like RNO, SMF, etc. be handled by AS/B6 for local passengers, and for passengers originating in those outstations that want to go to places beyond LAX but stay on AA metal allows them to use PHX.

In 2021, I'd expect to see continued growth in the CLT and DFW hubs as real estate allows, with PHX being in the next tranche down in terms of growth. The planes that will fund this will be coming from NYC and LAX.
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 828
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:20 pm

I agree I think PHX will see future growth. Now if AA would just open all of the ACs and expand the lower A gate AC because it in relation to other hub ACs is a broom closet. I don't see the exit from LA abating, particularly if the current Clown isn't recalled. At least NYC hasn't been turned into a tent city.

I wonder how many of these International routes will actually get going. I know one thing wearing a mask for hours on end on an a/c is horrible. My twelve hour ordeal to PHX yesterday with a mask on except for eating and drinking and by the end of the day it felt like a spike being nailed to the side of my head and breathing was not pleasant towards the end. No thank you on that experience for hours on end.
 
N292UX
Posts: 684
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 7:08 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 8:13 pm

I think DOH gets announced in 2021. Almost certainly from DFW, if not, maybe MIA.
 
x1234
Posts: 1102
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:18 pm

It would be great if AA would fly SEA-SIN. Singapore is the only high yielding O&D destination in Asia that AA doesn't fly to. DOH is mostly connections to India and AA is flying SEA-BLR anyways. I think directly flying into DEL or BOM is better than DOH unless AA plans a JV with QR to destinations in South Asia, Middle East & Africa not served from LHR or MAD.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 2543
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:20 pm

deltairlines wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
AA's LAX operation will be an interesting place to watch in 2021. Right now, it seems like their LAX regional route network is really suffering at the moment in comparison to regional networks out of their other hubs.

As a result, DL appears to be taking the lead on many LAX domestic markets, which makes me wonder why DL is maintaining a stronger LAX route network than AA is at the moment when demand is virtually zero.


Something to remember is that Delta is dropping a massive ton of money into physical facilities at LAX right now - close to $2 Billion there alone. With that type of an investment, Delta really can't afford to pull LAX down.

American on the other hand has a more than adequate facility in Terminal 4 - not the nicest in the world, but nowhere close to a dump. Longer term with the AS and B6 partnerships, it could behoove AA just to consolidate back to Terminal 4 and let JetBlue take over the gates they have in Terminal 5 (with Alaska in 6). American in LAX could very well end up being hubs (JFK, ORD, DFW, CLT, PHL, PHX, MIA, DCA), key domestic cities (BOS, IND, BNA, STL, SAT, AUS, SFO), Hawaii and international. Basically the stuff they need their own metal on for corporate contracts and/or other competitive reasons, and let the stuff like RNO, SMF, etc. be handled by AS/B6 for local passengers, and for passengers originating in those outstations that want to go to places beyond LAX but stay on AA metal allows them to use PHX.

In 2021, I'd expect to see continued growth in the CLT and DFW hubs as real estate allows, with PHX being in the next tranche down in terms of growth. The planes that will fund this will be coming from NYC and LAX.

AA is spending $1.6 billion on the remodeling at LAX of T4 and T5

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6566
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:49 pm

A lot of people are speculating that AA won’t really start SEA-BLR. What do you knowledgeable AA folks think? Will it in fact start, or will AA drop it before it starts?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6433
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:57 pm

I don't know if SEA-BLR will start, but I think it won't last long if it did. UA's SFO-BLR route killed the business case for it imo.

For the next few years, the demand to East Asia and South Asia will be very VFR focused rather than business focused. That I think means India demand will more like go to Delhi and East Asia demand will go to Beijing, Tokyo and Seoul for west coast. ME3 will continue to take large portion of the Indian VFR traffic. ICN/HND/NRT all offer excellent connection point to rest of East and SE Asia. PEK is the best connection point into rest of China.

I think a lot of PVG capacity will take a while to recover among US carriers. Chinese airlines are among the most healthy airlines around the world due to the domestic recovery. MU will be able to dominate the market into PVG whenever China opens up again.
Last edited by tphuang on Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26607
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:57 pm

deltairlines wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
AA's LAX operation will be an interesting place to watch in 2021. Right now, it seems like their LAX regional route network is really suffering at the moment in comparison to regional networks out of their other hubs.

As a result, DL appears to be taking the lead on many LAX domestic markets, which makes me wonder why DL is maintaining a stronger LAX route network than AA is at the moment when demand is virtually zero.


Something to remember is that Delta is dropping a massive ton of money into physical facilities at LAX right now - close to $2 Billion there alone. With that type of an investment, Delta really can't afford to pull LAX down.

American on the other hand has a more than adequate facility in Terminal 4 - not the nicest in the world, but nowhere close to a dump. Longer term with the AS and B6 partnerships, it could behoove AA just to consolidate back to Terminal 4 and let JetBlue take over the gates they have in Terminal 5 (with Alaska in 6). American in LAX could very well end up being hubs (JFK, ORD, DFW, CLT, PHL, PHX, MIA, DCA), key domestic cities (BOS, IND, BNA, STL, SAT, AUS, SFO), Hawaii and international. Basically the stuff they need their own metal on for corporate contracts and/or other competitive reasons, and let the stuff like RNO, SMF, etc. be handled by AS/B6 for local passengers, and for passengers originating in those outstations that want to go to places beyond LAX but stay on AA metal allows them to use PHX.

In 2021, I'd expect to see continued growth in the CLT and DFW hubs as real estate allows, with PHX being in the next tranche down in terms of growth. The planes that will fund this will be coming from NYC and LAX.


American is spending $2B to renovate terminals 4 and 5 and combining them. It will become the sole tenant of both.

American’s hub structure is more advantageous to being able to keep important LA market flows via connections than Delta. However, Delta is also taking advantage of all the other airlines severely cutting back by simply not doing the same, which I think is definitely smart. Also remember Delta continues to seat block so it needs more frequency to carry more capacity.

It’s not cutting back to just hubs and major markets. That’s laughable.

No hubs are seeing “growth” either. I think you are confusing new routes with growth. That’s simply relocation of assets. DFW, CLT and PHX aren’t growing right now. Capacity wise MIA and PHX are closest to what they were pre-COVID, IIRC, but also, they are becoming popular domestic inbound markets. MIA is set to get a major boost in April that I believe will put it closer to pre-COVID levels than any other AA hub. It actually is getting “growth” in terms of significantly boosted frequencies to South and Central America that did not exist pre-COVID.
Last edited by MAH4546 on Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
a.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6566
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 9:58 pm

Another route that seems to be on and off more than a prom dress is DFW-UIO. AA flew it with an A319 around 2015-2016, then dropped it.

AA announced they were starting/resuming both DFW-GYE and DFW-UIO. Then when the pandemic hit, they dropped DFW-GYE, but I thought AA was keeping DFW-UIO, but now it seems gone too. Will AA resume DFW-UIO?

DFW-BOG and DFW-GUA seem pretty consistent though.

I’m also surprised that AA doesn’t fly DFW-PTY during normal times.

I personally much prefer connecting and arriving though Customs at DFW, rather than MIA. IMHO, DFW is one of the easiest major airports in the US for arriving internationally and connecting.
 
gkirk
Posts: 23453
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 10:09 pm

EDI-PHL seems to operate 4 x weekly from June instead of April, 787 operating
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
x1234
Posts: 1102
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:00 pm

Also I have to add that the reason I want AA to fly SEA-SIN is because UA said that SFO-SIN is their highest yielding TPAC flight frequently selling out in J and Y because there's limited capacity on SIN-USA non-stop and SQ is very expensive pre-COVID.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6566
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:10 pm

x1234 wrote:
Also I have to add that the reason I want AA to fly SEA-SIN is because UA said that SFO-SIN is their highest yielding TPAC flight frequently selling out in J and Y because there's limited capacity on SIN-USA non-stop and SQ is very expensive.


It will be interesting to see how and if AA will build up SEA beyond the three routes announced, if they even stick.

I’d really like to see AA or AS start PAE-DFW on the E75 for connecting opportunities at AA’s hub. UA isn’t using three PAE slots when they dropped PAE-SFO.

AS already flies PAE-PHX so hopefully they’ll code share with AA on that for connecting opportunities at PHX. AA or AS adding a few well timed PAE-DFW flights would open up a lot of connections all over for PAE traveler. PAE is an amazingly convenient airport for a large population base.
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:15 am

Ishrion wrote:
Threads are being transitioned for 2021, so welcome to the American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Link to the 2020 thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437857

New Long-Haul Routes for 2021:

- BOS-LHR
- DFW-AKL/TLV/PKX
- CLT-HNL
- LAX-CHC
- JFK-ATH/TLV (currently not available for sale)
- SEA-BLR/LHR/PVG

Long-Haul Routes Cut for 2021 and Onward:

- CLT-BCN/CDG/FCO
- DFW-MUC
- LAX-EZE/GRU/HKG/PEK/PVG
- MIA-BSB/MXP
- ORD-VCE (BUD/KRK/PRG did not begin)
- PHL-BUD/DBV/MAN/PRG/TXL (CMN/KEF did not begin, VCE suspended until 2022)

Notes From 2020:

- Early and complete retirement for Embraer 190, Boeing 757, Boeing 767, and Airbus A330 fleets.
- Introduction of 777-200ER to CLT (PHL delayed to 2021)
- Introduction of 787-8 to PHL/MIA
- New/renewed partnerships with GOL, Alaska Airlines, Qatar Airways, and JetBlue

2021 Possibilities:

- Will we see American continue to grow its long-haul network out of SEA with the Alaska partnership?
- How will AA reshape its short and long-haul network in the Northeast with the JetBlue partnership?
- Will AA launch flights to Doha with the Qatar Airways partnership as they were evaluating it?
- Latin America and the Caribbean will be a huge focus for AA in 2021 with the addition of new frequencies and widebody flights to destinations like Bogotá, Medellín, and Quito. Additionally, with the renewed GOL partnership and losing LATAM in 2019, will AA continue to pursue additional growth in the regions?
- Will AA continue adding new point-to-point routes? In 2020, AA added notable ones such as EYW-MCO/TPA, SMF-SJD, CUN-IND/CMH, FLL-BOS/PAP, and more.
- What kind of changes will each hub encounter with the current conditions?


Ishrion,
I am posting a link to the article that you put on your Twitter. Are they really going to start CLT-VCE or was it just a typo? If so, that makes the decision to drop CLT-FCO all the more odd.
https://www.charlottestories.com/americ ... -honolulu/
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26607
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:20 am

rjbesikof wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Threads are being transitioned for 2021, so welcome to the American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Link to the 2020 thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437857

New Long-Haul Routes for 2021:

- BOS-LHR
- DFW-AKL/TLV/PKX
- CLT-HNL
- LAX-CHC
- JFK-ATH/TLV (currently not available for sale)
- SEA-BLR/LHR/PVG

Long-Haul Routes Cut for 2021 and Onward:

- CLT-BCN/CDG/FCO
- DFW-MUC
- LAX-EZE/GRU/HKG/PEK/PVG
- MIA-BSB/MXP
- ORD-VCE (BUD/KRK/PRG did not begin)
- PHL-BUD/DBV/MAN/PRG/TXL (CMN/KEF did not begin, VCE suspended until 2022)

Notes From 2020:

- Early and complete retirement for Embraer 190, Boeing 757, Boeing 767, and Airbus A330 fleets.
- Introduction of 777-200ER to CLT (PHL delayed to 2021)
- Introduction of 787-8 to PHL/MIA
- New/renewed partnerships with GOL, Alaska Airlines, Qatar Airways, and JetBlue

2021 Possibilities:

- Will we see American continue to grow its long-haul network out of SEA with the Alaska partnership?
- How will AA reshape its short and long-haul network in the Northeast with the JetBlue partnership?
- Will AA launch flights to Doha with the Qatar Airways partnership as they were evaluating it?
- Latin America and the Caribbean will be a huge focus for AA in 2021 with the addition of new frequencies and widebody flights to destinations like Bogotá, Medellín, and Quito. Additionally, with the renewed GOL partnership and losing LATAM in 2019, will AA continue to pursue additional growth in the regions?
- Will AA continue adding new point-to-point routes? In 2020, AA added notable ones such as EYW-MCO/TPA, SMF-SJD, CUN-IND/CMH, FLL-BOS/PAP, and more.
- What kind of changes will each hub encounter with the current conditions?


Ishrion,
I am posting a link to the article that you put on your Twitter. Are they really going to start CLT-VCE or was it just a typo? If so, that makes the decision to drop CLT-FCO all the more odd.
https://www.charlottestories.com/americ ... -honolulu/


No. AA is not launching CLTVCE. They are suspending PHLVCE for 2021 and will relaunch in 2022.
a.
 
Ishrion
Topic Author
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:24 am

rjbesikof wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Threads are being transitioned for 2021, so welcome to the American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Link to the 2020 thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437857

New Long-Haul Routes for 2021:

- BOS-LHR
- DFW-AKL/TLV/PKX
- CLT-HNL
- LAX-CHC
- JFK-ATH/TLV (currently not available for sale)
- SEA-BLR/LHR/PVG

Long-Haul Routes Cut for 2021 and Onward:

- CLT-BCN/CDG/FCO
- DFW-MUC
- LAX-EZE/GRU/HKG/PEK/PVG
- MIA-BSB/MXP
- ORD-VCE (BUD/KRK/PRG did not begin)
- PHL-BUD/DBV/MAN/PRG/TXL (CMN/KEF did not begin, VCE suspended until 2022)

Notes From 2020:

- Early and complete retirement for Embraer 190, Boeing 757, Boeing 767, and Airbus A330 fleets.
- Introduction of 777-200ER to CLT (PHL delayed to 2021)
- Introduction of 787-8 to PHL/MIA
- New/renewed partnerships with GOL, Alaska Airlines, Qatar Airways, and JetBlue

2021 Possibilities:

- Will we see American continue to grow its long-haul network out of SEA with the Alaska partnership?
- How will AA reshape its short and long-haul network in the Northeast with the JetBlue partnership?
- Will AA launch flights to Doha with the Qatar Airways partnership as they were evaluating it?
- Latin America and the Caribbean will be a huge focus for AA in 2021 with the addition of new frequencies and widebody flights to destinations like Bogotá, Medellín, and Quito. Additionally, with the renewed GOL partnership and losing LATAM in 2019, will AA continue to pursue additional growth in the regions?
- Will AA continue adding new point-to-point routes? In 2020, AA added notable ones such as EYW-MCO/TPA, SMF-SJD, CUN-IND/CMH, FLL-BOS/PAP, and more.
- What kind of changes will each hub encounter with the current conditions?


Ishrion,
I am posting a link to the article that you put on your Twitter. Are they really going to start CLT-VCE or was it just a typo? If so, that makes the decision to drop CLT-FCO all the more odd.
https://www.charlottestories.com/americ ... -honolulu/


It was very likely a typo that was supposed to be AA's PHL-VCE resumption being pushed back to 2022.
Leaving the forums. You may know where to find me.
 
User avatar
ChrisNH38
Posts: 373
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:53 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:15 am

Boof02671 wrote:
BOS-LHR isnt new. They’ve flown it before, suspended it, turned it over to BA, it’s a resumption.


Yes, with 762s and A300s prior to the 777s. I do think this is going to stick, inasmuch as BA won’t themselves field 4x anymore and certainly won’t use the A380 anytime soon (if at all).
https://my.flightradar24.com/ChrisNH
 
dcajet
Posts: 4994
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:58 am

Effective Jan 4th, American's upgauging AA996/7 daily svc DFW-EZE to a 787-9 from the current 787-8.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
onwFan
Posts: 634
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:03 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
A lot of people are speculating that AA won’t really start SEA-BLR. What do you knowledgeable AA folks think? Will it in fact start, or will AA drop it before it starts?

Not sure if it was mentioned elsewhere, but AA has re-loaded SEA-BLR starting Oct 30, 2021. Whether the service actually begins is another matter. As long as India’s ban on third country carriers from carrying Indian nationals between North Am & India stands; AI, UA and AA will have an advantage to make money on US-India routes...
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9627
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:11 pm

onwFan wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
A lot of people are speculating that AA won’t really start SEA-BLR. What do you knowledgeable AA folks think? Will it in fact start, or will AA drop it before it starts?

Not sure if it was mentioned elsewhere, but AA has re-loaded SEA-BLR starting Oct 30, 2021. Whether the service actually begins is another matter. As long as India’s ban on third country carriers from carrying Indian nationals between North Am & India stands; AI, UA and AA will have an advantage to make money on US-India routes...


Given present circumstances, a start date fully ten months away really isn't a commitment - it's a suggestion. With India's carrier ban AA won't be getting any meaningful early sales - not at good-for-AA fares, anyway. A destination new for the carrier, ULH, at a hub op new for the carrier - in Covid - tough putt.
 
RvA
Posts: 509
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:05 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
A lot of people are speculating that AA won’t really start SEA-BLR. What do you knowledgeable AA folks think? Will it in fact start, or will AA drop it before it starts?

Not sure if it was mentioned elsewhere, but AA has re-loaded SEA-BLR starting Oct 30, 2021. Whether the service actually begins is another matter. As long as India’s ban on third country carriers from carrying Indian nationals between North Am & India stands; AI, UA and AA will have an advantage to make money on US-India routes...


Given present circumstances, a start date fully ten months away really isn't a commitment - it's a suggestion. With India's carrier ban AA won't be getting any meaningful early sales - not at good-for-AA fares, anyway. A destination new for the carrier, ULH, at a hub op new for the carrier - in Covid - tough putt.


I probably haven’t understood this third country carrier ban but how would this impact AA? Is the expectation that flight will be aimed at Canadian or South American originating traffic?
 
NZ321
Posts: 1406
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 4:22 pm

x1234 wrote:
It would be great if AA would fly SEA-SIN. Singapore is the only high yielding O&D destination in Asia that AA doesn't fly to. DOH is mostly connections to India and AA is flying SEA-BLR anyways. I think directly flying into DEL or BOM is better than DOH unless AA plans a JV with QR to destinations in South Asia, Middle East & Africa not served from LHR or MAD.


What do you mean by high yielding? Some markets percentage wise may be low yielding but still have potential for good high yield uplift due to their large populations.
Plane mad!
 
Chemist
Posts: 912
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 5:50 pm

It will be interesting to see how the public's desire for social distancing works with AA's strategy of packing customers into its planes like sardines.
 
User avatar
American 767
Posts: 4558
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:26 pm

NZ321 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
It would be great if AA would fly SEA-SIN. Singapore is the only high yielding O&D destination in Asia that AA doesn't fly to. DOH is mostly connections to India and AA is flying SEA-BLR anyways. I think directly flying into DEL or BOM is better than DOH unless AA plans a JV with QR to destinations in South Asia, Middle East & Africa not served from LHR or MAD.


What do you mean by high yielding? Some markets percentage wise may be low yielding but still have potential for good high yield uplift due to their large populations.


He (or she, I don't know) probably means high load factors where flights are at least 70% full with paying customers. Yes, SEA-SIN would be a good idea, as SEA-HKG would be, although SIN is a Star Alliance hub so they (American) wouldn't get a lot of feed from flights within Asia through SIN. On the other side it might work, getting feed from regional flights in the Northwest, now that Alaska is joining One World.

Has American ever flown LAX-SIN or at least considered doing so? That could work too although maybe more difficult to get slots because of hi-density traffic in the LAX-Asia market. LAX-HKG Cathay does it. LAX-NRT JAL does it. LAX-SYD Qantas does it.
Last edited by American 767 on Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ben Soriano
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 747
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:30 pm

I wonder what the ramifications are for DOT to "approve" of JetBlue/AA "alliance" by way of deadline expiration. Can the DOT revisit the agreement? Has JetBlue and AA finalized the agreement on all fronts prior to the expiration? Is there a loop-hole to revisit with divestitures by DOT and other carriers? Can other carriers object?
 
RvA
Posts: 509
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:35 pm

Chemist wrote:
It will be interesting to see how the public's desire for social distancing works with AA's strategy of packing customers into its planes like sardines.


Will likely work the same I guess as it will be for all other airlines?
 
OKCDCA
Posts: 296
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:44 pm

Chemist wrote:
It will be interesting to see how the public's desire for social distancing works with AA's strategy of packing customers into its planes like sardines.

I’ve been flying AA extensively since the end of October. Majority of flights have been 80-90% full, even had a few 100% loads around Christmas. Nobody seems to care from what I’ve seen. Plus, keeping the middle seat open is only a comfort thing and doesn’t matter when you have people sitting in front of and behind you. I’m just ready for AA to get back to serving drinks in economy. It’s so frustrating to see FA’s just sitting around in the back and not doing their jobs.
 
jeffh747
Posts: 870
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:08 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
Chemist wrote:
It will be interesting to see how the public's desire for social distancing works with AA's strategy of packing customers into its planes like sardines.

I’ve been flying AA extensively since the end of October. Majority of flights have been 80-90% full, even had a few 100% loads around Christmas. Nobody seems to care from what I’ve seen. Plus, keeping the middle seat open is only a comfort thing and doesn’t matter when you have people sitting in front of and behind you. I’m just ready for AA to get back to serving drinks in economy. It’s so frustrating to see FA’s just sitting around in the back and not doing their jobs.

Completely disregarding your ignorant last sentence about FAs "not doing their jobs" because they aren't serving beverages, the rest of your post matches my observations exactly. Nothing but full loads on the flights I've been on, and a huge lack of care for social distancing. As soon as the preboarding call is made, nearly every single passenger crowds up to boards, and everyone is on top of each other in the jetway.

Personally I'm not sure whether blocking a middle seat is effective or not, given how already densely packed the planes are, and the fact nobody cares to social distance anyways. If members of the traveling public really want to social distance, traveling by plane is probably not the best way to do that.
ATR-72-600, A318 A319 A320 A320neo A321 A321neo A332 A333 B717 B727 B734 B73G B738 B739 B752 B762 B763 B772 B788 CRJ2 DHC6 DHC8-300 E145 E190 MD82 MD83 MD90 SF340B
 
OKCDCA
Posts: 296
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 7:56 pm

jeffh747 wrote:
Completely disregarding your ignorant last sentence about FAs "not doing their jobs" because they aren't serving beverages, the rest of your post matches my observations exactly. Nothing but full loads on the flights I've been on, and a huge lack of care for social distancing. As soon as the preboarding call is made, nearly every single passenger crowds up to boards, and everyone is on top of each other in the jetway.

Personally I'm not sure whether blocking a middle seat is effective or not, given how already densely packed the planes are, and the fact nobody cares to social distance anyways. If members of the traveling public really want to social distance, traveling by plane is probably not the best way to do that.

Maybe I run a tight ship at my company, but I wouldn't say expecting an employee to do a part of their job that is part of the service the company is supposed to provide is ignorant... And yes, I understand the first part of a FA's duties are safety. Sitting in the back and reading a book or playing on a cell phone the whole flight is not part of the FA job description last I checked. Perhaps it's the attitude I've gotten from a couple FA's when asking for a glass of water that's turned me off. Getting a noticeable eye roll as they put down the book/cell phone to get up is not flattering.
 
mjba257
Posts: 135
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:07 pm

jeffh747 wrote:
OKCDCA wrote:
Chemist wrote:
It will be interesting to see how the public's desire for social distancing works with AA's strategy of packing customers into its planes like sardines.

I’ve been flying AA extensively since the end of October. Majority of flights have been 80-90% full, even had a few 100% loads around Christmas. Nobody seems to care from what I’ve seen. Plus, keeping the middle seat open is only a comfort thing and doesn’t matter when you have people sitting in front of and behind you. I’m just ready for AA to get back to serving drinks in economy. It’s so frustrating to see FA’s just sitting around in the back and not doing their jobs.

Completely disregarding your ignorant last sentence about FAs "not doing their jobs" because they aren't serving beverages, the rest of your post matches my observations exactly. Nothing but full loads on the flights I've been on, and a huge lack of care for social distancing. As soon as the preboarding call is made, nearly every single passenger crowds up to boards, and everyone is on top of each other in the jetway.

Personally I'm not sure whether blocking a middle seat is effective or not, given how already densely packed the planes are, and the fact nobody cares to social distance anyways. If members of the traveling public really want to social distance, traveling by plane is probably not the best way to do that.


Nobody really cares about social distancing anymore. The fact is people just are not scared of COVID. It has a 99.8% survival rate and only effects the elderly and those with severe underlying conditions. Young, healthy people are at virtually no risk. So yeah, it doesn't surprise me that people will crowd together at a gate or not cover their nose. And don't try to tell people "Excuse me sir, could you please cover your nose" or you'll get called a Karen. And if you say that to a FA, you risk getting kicked off the plane
 
mjba257
Posts: 135
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:11 pm

I do hope that as demand returns, AA starts to invest more in PHL and ORD, in my opinion the two most underutilized hubs who both have the most potential. I never understood why AA doesn't try to run the TATL operation at PHL that UA does at EWR? Granted, EWR serves a much larger metro area, but the Delaware Valley is very large and very wealthy. Plently of premium pax, as well as a strong feed from the rest of the country could make it the premier TATL hub. Also, it's about time we get a PHL-NRT/HND flight. Heck, even PHL-HKG could work, as both cities are OneWorld hubs
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:18 pm

RvA wrote:
Chemist wrote:
It will be interesting to see how the public's desire for social distancing works with AA's strategy of packing customers into its planes like sardines.


Will likely work the same I guess as it will be for all other airlines?


Why single out AA when NK, WN, G4, F9, UA, and soon B6 & AS will no longer be capping capacity?

Also while it is a natural reaction to think airplanes are the danger of traveling right now, the aircraft itself is likely the "safest" part of your journey during the pandemic. There have been numerous studies done on how difficult it is for infectious diseases & COVID-19 to spread on airplanes, especially with masks, and exactly 0 studies have shown airplanes are "super-spreader" locations for COVID-19:

While I am not saying travel is "safe," since you will likely visit bars, restaurants, friends/family, and other areas that have much higher chances of infection, I am saying that "packed" planes have little to no impact on your risk of COVID in the context of an entire journey:

Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University who previously served as Baltimore's Health Commissioner:
"But I’m actually less concerned about that(being on airplane) than with all the other activities surrounding the flight."
"While the plane is running, the transmission risk is actually very low because the air circulation is rapid"

Leonard Marcus of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health:
"What we have found is that, during normal operation, the ventilation systems maintain consistent air quality throughout the entire aircraft cabin."

Sebastian Hoehl of the Institute for Medical Virology at Goethe University Frankfurt in Germany, who has co-authored two papers on COVID-19 transmission on specific flights, which were published in JAMA Network Open and the New England Journal of Medicine
“An airplane cabin is probably one of the most secure conditions you can be in"

Dr. Rui Pombal, US FAA Designated Senior Aviation Medical Examiner
"During air travel, the risk of COVID-19 is lower than from an office building, classroom, supermarket or commuter train"
“The airflow in today's aircrafts have been measured at three times the amount mandated for infection control rooms in hospitals”

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2771435
https://www.cntraveler.com/story/holida ... s-answered
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... omobiles2/
https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-repo ... -airplane/
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 8:27 pm

mjba257 wrote:
I do hope that as demand returns, AA starts to invest more in PHL and ORD, in my opinion the two most underutilized hubs who both have the most potential. I never understood why AA doesn't try to run the TATL operation at PHL that UA does at EWR? Granted, EWR serves a much larger metro area, but the Delaware Valley is very large and very wealthy. Plently of premium pax, as well as a strong feed from the rest of the country could make it the premier TATL hub. Also, it's about time we get a PHL-NRT/HND flight. Heck, even PHL-HKG could work, as both cities are OneWorld hubs


It is mind blowing that AA does not leverage ORD more and does not seem to be able to sustain intercontinental services outside of LHR on a year round basis. The catchment area, including connections, is still massive and there has got to be room for AA and UA to share ORD as they've been doing it for almost 4 decades. ORD was AA's main gateway to Europe for a long time, with a very impressive network that included LHR, ORY (then CDG), MAN, GLA, BHX, ARN, BRU, FRA, MUC, MXP, ZRH, and for a very short time, TXL. I'm sure I've missed a few. The fact that AA was able to make money on the newly added seasonals from 2018 on (BCN, ATH, etc..) suggests there is something there, with the right plane, for AA and that plane is the 788.

PHL has been AA's TATL gateway (primary) since the merger, building upon what it did for US. American's product out of PHL on international routes has not been a major priority since the merger until recently, when the 787 was introduced. It seems AA shies away from competition but at PHL, the only real one to consider on TATL routes is LH. I think COVID19 will result in quite a bit of AA routes to Europe being cut from PHL and shifted to JFK where AA doesn't have any advantage, other than higher yield. Once the industry recovers, I could see ZRH and EDI moving up to JFK, along with VCE when it resumes. If AA really does start JFK-ATH, I could see that route cancelling out the PHL-ATH one.
 
N383SW
Posts: 135
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:28 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:00 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
jeffh747 wrote:
Completely disregarding your ignorant last sentence about FAs "not doing their jobs" because they aren't serving beverages, the rest of your post matches my observations exactly. Nothing but full loads on the flights I've been on, and a huge lack of care for social distancing. As soon as the preboarding call is made, nearly every single passenger crowds up to boards, and everyone is on top of each other in the jetway.

Personally I'm not sure whether blocking a middle seat is effective or not, given how already densely packed the planes are, and the fact nobody cares to social distance anyways. If members of the traveling public really want to social distance, traveling by plane is probably not the best way to do that.

Maybe I run a tight ship at my company, but I wouldn't say expecting an employee to do a part of their job that is part of the service the company is supposed to provide is ignorant... And yes, I understand the first part of a FA's duties are safety. Sitting in the back and reading a book or playing on a cell phone the whole flight is not part of the FA job description last I checked. Perhaps it's the attitude I've gotten from a couple FA's when asking for a glass of water that's turned me off. Getting a noticeable eye roll as they put down the book/cell phone to get up is not flattering.


Well for some of the airlines re service, they only want the Flight Attendants out in the aisle as least as possible because of COVID. Sorry that it's frustrating for you to not have someone cooing over you for an entire flight but there just so happens to be a Pandemic right now and things aren't exactly normal.
 
mjba257
Posts: 135
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:02 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
mjba257 wrote:
I do hope that as demand returns, AA starts to invest more in PHL and ORD, in my opinion the two most underutilized hubs who both have the most potential. I never understood why AA doesn't try to run the TATL operation at PHL that UA does at EWR? Granted, EWR serves a much larger metro area, but the Delaware Valley is very large and very wealthy. Plently of premium pax, as well as a strong feed from the rest of the country could make it the premier TATL hub. Also, it's about time we get a PHL-NRT/HND flight. Heck, even PHL-HKG could work, as both cities are OneWorld hubs


It is mind blowing that AA does not leverage ORD more and does not seem to be able to sustain intercontinental services outside of LHR on a year round basis. The catchment area, including connections, is still massive and there has got to be room for AA and UA to share ORD as they've been doing it for almost 4 decades. ORD was AA's main gateway to Europe for a long time, with a very impressive network that included LHR, ORY (then CDG), MAN, GLA, BHX, ARN, BRU, FRA, MUC, MXP, ZRH, and for a very short time, TXL. I'm sure I've missed a few. The fact that AA was able to make money on the newly added seasonals from 2018 on (BCN, ATH, etc..) suggests there is something there, with the right plane, for AA and that plane is the 788.

PHL has been AA's TATL gateway (primary) since the merger, building upon what it did for US. American's product out of PHL on international routes has not been a major priority since the merger until recently, when the 787 was introduced. It seems AA shies away from competition but at PHL, the only real one to consider on TATL routes is LH. I think COVID19 will result in quite a bit of AA routes to Europe being cut from PHL and shifted to JFK where AA doesn't have any advantage, other than higher yield. Once the industry recovers, I could see ZRH and EDI moving up to JFK, along with VCE when it resumes. If AA really does start JFK-ATH, I could see that route cancelling out the PHL-ATH one.


AA has been pulling out of JFK as of recently. PHL is and always has been a better TATL gateway than JFK. Far less competition, way more gates, no slot restrictions, etc. JFK's focus is on high yielding O&D international and transcontinental markets. PHL is for connecting traffic
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4445
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:26 pm

mjba257 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
mjba257 wrote:
I do hope that as demand returns, AA starts to invest more in PHL and ORD, in my opinion the two most underutilized hubs who both have the most potential. I never understood why AA doesn't try to run the TATL operation at PHL that UA does at EWR? Granted, EWR serves a much larger metro area, but the Delaware Valley is very large and very wealthy. Plently of premium pax, as well as a strong feed from the rest of the country could make it the premier TATL hub. Also, it's about time we get a PHL-NRT/HND flight. Heck, even PHL-HKG could work, as both cities are OneWorld hubs


It is mind blowing that AA does not leverage ORD more and does not seem to be able to sustain intercontinental services outside of LHR on a year round basis. The catchment area, including connections, is still massive and there has got to be room for AA and UA to share ORD as they've been doing it for almost 4 decades. ORD was AA's main gateway to Europe for a long time, with a very impressive network that included LHR, ORY (then CDG), MAN, GLA, BHX, ARN, BRU, FRA, MUC, MXP, ZRH, and for a very short time, TXL. I'm sure I've missed a few. The fact that AA was able to make money on the newly added seasonals from 2018 on (BCN, ATH, etc..) suggests there is something there, with the right plane, for AA and that plane is the 788.

PHL has been AA's TATL gateway (primary) since the merger, building upon what it did for US. American's product out of PHL on international routes has not been a major priority since the merger until recently, when the 787 was introduced. It seems AA shies away from competition but at PHL, the only real one to consider on TATL routes is LH. I think COVID19 will result in quite a bit of AA routes to Europe being cut from PHL and shifted to JFK where AA doesn't have any advantage, other than higher yield. Once the industry recovers, I could see ZRH and EDI moving up to JFK, along with VCE when it resumes. If AA really does start JFK-ATH, I could see that route cancelling out the PHL-ATH one.


AA has been pulling out of JFK as of recently. PHL is and always has been a better TATL gateway than JFK. Far less competition, way more gates, no slot restrictions, etc. JFK's focus is on high yielding O&D international and transcontinental markets. PHL is for connecting traffic


Yes, AA has been optimizing and downsizing JFK for 2 decades, not just recently. AA has a lot of competition in NY thanks to its slow uptake but the bread and butter routes do well and there is more premium demand and opportunity (once things normalize post-pandemic of course). JFK is indeed as you say, O&D, and PHL is connecting traffic. AA has plenty of gates at its disposal though at Terminal 8 at JFK. The question is which routes work better at JFK vs. PHL. I think PHL is going to be sacrificed at the expense of DFW and CLT for a time.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1903
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:54 pm

I 100% agree with the above posters that PHL is being overlooked. I think AA is seeing the higher operating costs and running back down to CLT. CLT will 100% work as a domestic and Caribbean connecting hub but it will never be able to be a nearly as successful TATL hub as PHL. They same is true for the Caribbean and MIA. If AA doesn’t remain committed to PHL I think overtime they will miss many opportunities.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6433
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 10:23 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
I 100% agree with the above posters that PHL is being overlooked. I think AA is seeing the higher operating costs and running back down to CLT. CLT will 100% work as a domestic and Caribbean connecting hub but it will never be able to be a nearly as successful TATL hub as PHL. They same is true for the Caribbean and MIA. If AA doesn’t remain committed to PHL I think overtime they will miss many opportunities.


The biggest problems facing PHL are it's O&D numbers and presence of EWR. With COVID, it's suffering the same demand drop problem that all the other northeastern airports are facing. I don't think it's overlooked when AA has made it their main TATL hub.

I don't see PHL O&D going up significantly from population shift. I also don't see it having EWR level of international service post-COVID. Which means, it will continually relying heavily on feeds to sustain international flights. The big question is how AA with adjust the size of its hub post COVID. I can envision a scenario where they focus on DCA and CLT on the East coast for those northeast to southeast connections. If they do that, PHL would loose some of its feed and have trouble with ULCC pressure to Florida. Which in turn would lead to further reductions. You can see how there could be knock on effect on PHL depending on which hub AA chooses to emphasize.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4237
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I 100% agree with the above posters that PHL is being overlooked. I think AA is seeing the higher operating costs and running back down to CLT. CLT will 100% work as a domestic and Caribbean connecting hub but it will never be able to be a nearly as successful TATL hub as PHL. They same is true for the Caribbean and MIA. If AA doesn’t remain committed to PHL I think overtime they will miss many opportunities.


The biggest problems facing PHL are it's O&D numbers and presence of EWR. With COVID, it's suffering the same demand drop problem that all the other northeastern airports are facing. I don't think it's overlooked when AA has made it their main TATL hub.

I don't see PHL O&D going up significantly from population shift. I also don't see it having EWR level of international service post-COVID. Which means, it will continually relying heavily on feeds to sustain international flights. The big question is how AA with adjust the size of its hub post COVID. I can envision a scenario where they focus on DCA and CLT on the East coast for those northeast to southeast connections. If they do that, PHL would loose some of its feed and have trouble with ULCC pressure to Florida. Which in turn would lead to further reductions. You can see how there could be knock on effect on PHL depending on which hub AA chooses to emphasize.

There is no doubt PHL punches below it's weight. But there has been a general shift towards more O&D traffic by percentage of overall passengers. Enplanement O&D hovers between 67-70% of total traffic. That percentage is more than the percentage of O&D at IAH, MSP, DTW, DEN. Not factoring raw numbers. CLT...it's enplanement O&D is only 33% of total traffic
 
CALMSP
Posts: 3658
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:21 pm

N292UX wrote:
I think DOH gets announced in 2021. Almost certainly from DFW, if not, maybe MIA.


you won't see AA announce DOH. There is no JV between QR/AA (at least not as of today), and there simply isn't enough demand to operate a flight alongside QR in any of the current AA hubs (outside of the likes of CLT/PHX).
 
ahj2000
Posts: 1319
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 5:34 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:34 pm

usairways85 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I 100% agree with the above posters that PHL is being overlooked. I think AA is seeing the higher operating costs and running back down to CLT. CLT will 100% work as a domestic and Caribbean connecting hub but it will never be able to be a nearly as successful TATL hub as PHL. They same is true for the Caribbean and MIA. If AA doesn’t remain committed to PHL I think overtime they will miss many opportunities.


The biggest problems facing PHL are it's O&D numbers and presence of EWR. With COVID, it's suffering the same demand drop problem that all the other northeastern airports are facing. I don't think it's overlooked when AA has made it their main TATL hub.

I don't see PHL O&D going up significantly from population shift. I also don't see it having EWR level of international service post-COVID. Which means, it will continually relying heavily on feeds to sustain international flights. The big question is how AA with adjust the size of its hub post COVID. I can envision a scenario where they focus on DCA and CLT on the East coast for those northeast to southeast connections. If they do that, PHL would loose some of its feed and have trouble with ULCC pressure to Florida. Which in turn would lead to further reductions. You can see how there could be knock on effect on PHL depending on which hub AA chooses to emphasize.

There is no doubt PHL punches below it's weight. But there has been a general shift towards more O&D traffic by percentage of overall passengers. Enplanement O&D hovers between 67-70% of total traffic. That percentage is more than the percentage of O&D at IAH, MSP, DTW, DEN. Not factoring raw numbers. CLT...it's enplanement O&D is only 33% of total traffic

Wow CLT is that high?? Growing up with the US hub, it seemed a miracle to find someone on your flight who was O&D. More likely you find someone who didn't know where the hell CLT was. (I remember sometime around a decade ago I was on a LGA-CLT when someone was connecting to MSY and had a loud phone convo waiting to get out the plane and said they were connecting in Charleston but couldn't see the water...)
Regardless, if AA wants to be truly useful to the American customer, it should offer a higher amount of transcon destinations and the way to do that for them is PHL. We've seen this year that connecting through LHR is not always an option (plus adds a stop for a lot of USA-HUB-EUR routes)
-Andrés Juánez
 
phlphan
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:34 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:35 pm

PHL is the best TATL hub in AA's system. Just look at geography. The entire USA can connect in PHL to go to any main city or secondary city in Europe. PHL will be right back where it was when this virus passes. To have some of these flights go out of Dallas (TLV), no one on the east coast will connect in DFW and will have to use BA or LH or QR but then that adds a connection. AA needs to use PHL as a major TATL gateway which also allows for a USA connection rather than having to connect in Europe. Also as has been mentioned, there is no other competition at PHL for AA, no gate constraints (except in the Summer of 2019 when AA also used remote areas), no slot restrictions. Yes, all international flights rely on feed and not only O & D but PHL is what American needs for TATL --then that can be complemented with ORD and CLT if needed.
 
phlphan
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2017 6:34 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:36 pm

PHL is the best TATL hub in AA's system. Just look at geography. The entire USA can connect in PHL to go to any main city or secondary city in Europe. PHL will be right back where it was when this virus passes. To have some of these flights go out of Dallas (TLV), no one on the east coast will connect in DFW and will have to use BA or LH or QR but then that adds a connection. AA needs to use PHL as a major TATL gateway which also allows for a USA connection rather than having to connect in Europe. Also as has been mentioned, there is no other competition at PHL for AA, no gate constraints (except in the Summer of 2019 when AA also used remote areas), no slot restrictions. Yes, all international flights rely on feed and not only O & D but PHL is what American needs for TATL --then that can be complemented with ORD and CLT if needed.
 
BarrenLucidity
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:29 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:44 am

phlphan wrote:
PHL is the best TATL hub in AA's system. Just look at geography. The entire USA can connect in PHL to go to any main city or secondary city in Europe. PHL will be right back where it was when this virus passes. To have some of these flights go out of Dallas (TLV), no one on the east coast will connect in DFW and will have to use BA or LH or QR but then that adds a connection. AA needs to use PHL as a major TATL gateway which also allows for a USA connection rather than having to connect in Europe. Also as has been mentioned, there is no other competition at PHL for AA, no gate constraints (except in the Summer of 2019 when AA also used remote areas), no slot restrictions. Yes, all international flights rely on feed and not only O & D but PHL is what American needs for TATL --then that can be complemented with ORD and CLT if needed.


I think this will be their take at least until CLT expansion is complete. Else the 787 base makes little sense. CLT can connect to the OneWorld hubs with the 777 fleet. Would really love to see other OW partners (JAL/QT) at CLT one day. The metro area has a decent amount of O&D to India and Japan with IT operations for India, NTT, Toyota, OILES, etc all operating in Charlotte.
 
USAirALB
Posts: 2598
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2007 4:46 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:47 am

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
I 100% agree with the above posters that PHL is being overlooked. I think AA is seeing the higher operating costs and running back down to CLT. CLT will 100% work as a domestic and Caribbean connecting hub but it will never be able to be a nearly as successful TATL hub as PHL. They same is true for the Caribbean and MIA. If AA doesn’t remain committed to PHL I think overtime they will miss many opportunities.


The biggest problems facing PHL are it's O&D numbers and presence of EWR. With COVID, it's suffering the same demand drop problem that all the other northeastern airports are facing. I don't think it's overlooked when AA has made it their main TATL hub.

I don't see PHL O&D going up significantly from population shift. I also don't see it having EWR level of international service post-COVID. Which means, it will continually relying heavily on feeds to sustain international flights. The big question is how AA with adjust the size of its hub post COVID. I can envision a scenario where they focus on DCA and CLT on the East coast for those northeast to southeast connections. If they do that, PHL would loose some of its feed and have trouble with ULCC pressure to Florida. Which in turn would lead to further reductions. You can see how there could be knock on effect on PHL depending on which hub AA chooses to emphasize.

I think you brought up some interesting points, but I simply cannot see AA focusing on DCA at the expense of PHL. While clearly this isn't the case for every itinerary, but I have seen numerous occasions where AA charges a premium to connect through DCA rather than simply connecting through CLT and PHL. While they will be receiving new gates later this year, capacity at DCA is strained and AA simply cannot replicate what they have at PHL in DCA.

Has PHL somewhat taken a backseat in favor of CLT? Absolutely. Several cities, like ALB/BUF/MHT/SYR/ROC have all recently lost their mainline service to PHL over the last several years, often in favor of enhanced CLT service. ALB, for example, now features all mainline to CLT, and the morning CLT run is upgauged to an A321 in peak periods.

PHL has decent O/D and plays a critical role in the network so I can never envision a scenario where PHL is dehubbed entirely. PHL for AA is starting to look more and more like UA's operation at Dulles, in that it is largely an RJ operation with the exception of international and hub-hub flying, along with flights to key markets from PHL, like Florida/West Coast.

Has AA dropped any PHL routes since the pandemic? PHL-SAT doesn't display in the schedule anywhere, even for this summer. I know they used to do PHL-PDX/SLC but they both appear gone or seasonal only. I cannot see them cutting mainline, as everything that appears that is left is Florida, West Coast, hubs, international, and BDL/PVD/AUS/BOS/BNA/ATL/PWM/DEN/MCI/PIT/MSP/IND/IAH/RDU. I wouldn't be surprised to see IAH/IND/MCI lose mainline service entirely, as all are Eagle with the exception of a daily A319. Anyway, the mainline roster is essentially a carbon-copy of UA/IAD, give and take a few cities.

I would say that most international destinations that are non-seasonal are safe, but I was shocked when AA cut PHL-FRA a couple of years back, and PHL-MAN last month, so who knows. I do think that once you trim capacity, the summer-seasonal flying to VCE/SNN/LIS/EDI/ATH/BCN, etc could potentially become unviable.

While nearly everyone stated that CLT would be downsized (or at least lose all of its Caribbean flying at the expense of MIA) has shown itself to be a jack of all trades of sorts, and has grown to become a quasi mini-DFW in term of reach , especially in terms of recent additions to the Midwest/Mountain West. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see some summer-seasonal European flying shifted down to CLT in the future.
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Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 04, 2021 12:57 am

phlphan wrote:
PHL is the best TATL hub in AA's system. Just look at geography. The entire USA can connect in PHL to go to any main city or secondary city in Europe. PHL will be right back where it was when this virus passes. To have some of these flights go out of Dallas (TLV), no one on the east coast will connect in DFW and will have to use BA or LH or QR but then that adds a connection. AA needs to use PHL as a major TATL gateway which also allows for a USA connection rather than having to connect in Europe. Also as has been mentioned, there is no other competition at PHL for AA, no gate constraints (except in the Summer of 2019 when AA also used remote areas), no slot restrictions. Yes, all international flights rely on feed and not only O & D but PHL is what American needs for TATL --then that can be complemented with ORD and CLT if needed.


PHL isn't the best hub in the AA system for TATL. It's just the only logical choice given what it has to play with. AA's TATL gateway at PHL (which really was built out by USAir starting in the early 1990s) skews a bit more leisure over business traffic, and that's a problem. Part of the issue is, as others have pointed out, EWR and what it has in terms of network. The other problem is consistency of product, which until recently, was a problem for AA and PHL. Before the pandemic, AA was flying A333s, A332s, 763s, and 757s to Europe, all featuring different premium products, and none of them really stellar. The transition to Dreamliner 787s on some routes was intended to shore this up, but at this point, it's a bit of a moot point until demand recovers. AA could not make FRA or MUC work out of PHL (two major destinations in Europe) largely on the back of weak sales on the Germany side and the absence of any feed in FRA/MUC. AA also has a low threshold for operating long haul routes that don't perform and throughout its post-deregulation history, it has started and stopped routes in quick succession.

Had AA invested in product, network, and services at JFK when it could have, it would have had an edge, but none of that is in play now and the focus at JFK will be on bread and butter routes that can be sustained year-round or seasonally, strictly on O&D. It also seems AA has operated JFK at a loss for years and never really fleshed out what it could do with it.

My thinking is that AA will cut further at PHL in TATL service, but not by too much and sustain what it can operate with a reduced hub size.
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