American Airlines Network Thread - 2021

rjbesikof · Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:57 pm

x1234 wrote:
If GRU/EZE loads and yields are so good why not resume JFK/LAX-GRU/EZE sooner? I heard AA was very lucrative carrying cargo from Asia to Latin America (electronics without the batteries) and produce from Latin America to Asia via DFW/LAX/JFK.

JFK-GRU resumes next week. LAX-GRU was unprofitable pre-COVID. EZE has a cap size on the number of international flights, so they can only have so many flights.

dcajet · Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:32 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
More on the AA MAX, this weekend the following routes have been converted to the MAX:

MIA-IND

Separately, other than AA 907/908 (MIA-EZE) which has been operating daily and the reduced to 3 x weekly DFW-EZE, the rest of the EZE services on AA have been pushed to June. JFK was due to restart in April. Now that's not happening. China also gets pushed further out, to June.

How are the load factors on flights to South America (to places like LIM, GRU, SCL, BOG)?

I've heard GRU and EZE both go out 90% or more quite often. Not sure about the others though and have no view into that. There is a TON of cargo on these flights too which is why BOG is getting the 777 as are some other routes being flown with 787s.

EZE-MIA has been recently upgauged to the 77W from 77E; DFW-EZE was upgauged to the 789 from the 788. The only reason AA reduced frequencies on the DFW-EZE (from daily to 3x w) was to comply with an Argentinian government requirement to cut back frequencies by 30% to avoid new COVID cases.

alasizon · Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:38 pm

x1234 wrote:
If GRU/EZE loads and yields are so good why not resume JFK/LAX-GRU/EZE sooner? I heard AA was very lucrative carrying cargo from Asia to Latin America (electronics without the batteries) and produce from Latin America to Asia via DFW/LAX/JFK.

As I recall, EZE frequencies are limited to 10x per week currently so can't resume there.

Demand is there from MIA/DFW, but JFK and LAX demand is still suppressed and won't come back until later.

mentaisupa · Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:06 am

himarhernandez wrote:
Any word on when the Flagship Lounges will reopen?

Can't imagine FL reopening until either premium demand picks up on the premium transcon routes or international travel returns.

PSA727 · Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:59 am

Runway765 wrote:

2. Why on earth does CMI need to be linked to DCA?

Well, it is the nation's capital with a large private sector in the region. Also, there are dozens of cities served by AA at DCA which people can also connect onto. So, I think it would be better than CMI-PHL. Also, I think AA wants that additional slot pair at DCA.

ContinentalEWR · Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:36 am

rjbesikof wrote:
x1234 wrote:
If GRU/EZE loads and yields are so good why not resume JFK/LAX-GRU/EZE sooner? I heard AA was very lucrative carrying cargo from Asia to Latin America (electronics without the batteries) and produce from Latin America to Asia via DFW/LAX/JFK.

JFK-GRU resumes next week. LAX-GRU was unprofitable pre-COVID. EZE has a cap size on the number of international flights, so they can only have so many flights.

LAX-GRU wasn't unprofitable before COVID. It actually did well, just not well enough to run daily, so it became a split operation with EZE (4 x weekly to GRU and 3 x weekly to EZE). AA did and still does carry a significant amount of cargo to Asia from Latin America and vice versa, but not through JFK, where AA has no flights on its own metal to Asia.

The reason GRU resumptions are slow to happen has everything to do with how out of control COVID is in Brazil and the real fear that air travel will spread variants from Brazil to other parts of the world. As for EZE, there are caps to limit the number of passengers entering the country to try and contain the spread. MIA-EZE is daily and in late February went from a 772 to a 77W (Cargo is also a reason for the added capacity). DFW-EZE is a 789 but with MIA going daily, the maximum frequency right now is 3 x a week. JFK has been postponed further into April.

washingtonflyer · Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:56 am

How many 763s got pulled owing to COVID? IIRC the number wasn't huge but wasn't small. We know 20+ A330-200s and -300s were pulled.

Thats a fair amount of widebody lift that is only being partially offset by any 787 deliveries.

ContinentalEWR · Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:07 pm

washingtonflyer wrote:
How many 763s got pulled owing to COVID? IIRC the number wasn't huge but wasn't small. We know 20+ A330-200s and -300s were pulled.

Thats a fair amount of widebody lift that is only being partially offset by any 787 deliveries.

American had 23 active 767-300ER's left in service when it made the decision to retire the type. It operated a total of 9 A330-300s (same number US ordered with deliveries that began in 2000s) and 15 A330-200s (delivered from 2009 on to US).

AVLAirlineFreq · Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:35 pm

PSA727 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:

2. Why on earth does CMI need to be linked to DCA?

Well, it is the nation's capital with a large private sector in the region. Also, there are dozens of cities served by AA at DCA which people can also connect onto. So, I think it would be better than CMI-PHL. Also, I think AA wants that additional slot pair at DCA.

Fun fact apropos of absolutely nothing, CMI had nonstop service to DC for many years on Ozark. At one time the service actually continued on to LGA.

descl · Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:13 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
More on the AA MAX, this weekend the following routes have been converted to the MAX:

MIA-IND

Separately, other than AA 907/908 (MIA-EZE) which has been operating daily and the reduced to 3 x weekly DFW-EZE, the rest of the EZE services on AA have been pushed to June. JFK was due to restart in April. Now that's not happening. China also gets pushed further out, to June.

How are the load factors on flights to South America (to places like LIM, GRU, SCL, BOG)?

I have the following information regarding AA´s SCL-MIA:
SCLMIA nov-20 dec-20 jan-21
PAX 12.134 13.602 10.171
SEATS 16.380 15.795 14.508
LF 74% 86% 70%

January was down a bit mainly because of tougher restrictions regarding the entrance of foreigners and chileans coming from abroad.

ContinentalEWR · Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:03 pm

descl wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
More on the AA MAX, this weekend the following routes have been converted to the MAX:

MIA-IND

Separately, other than AA 907/908 (MIA-EZE) which has been operating daily and the reduced to 3 x weekly DFW-EZE, the rest of the EZE services on AA have been pushed to June. JFK was due to restart in April. Now that's not happening. China also gets pushed further out, to June.

How are the load factors on flights to South America (to places like LIM, GRU, SCL, BOG)?

I have the following information regarding AA´s SCL-MIA:
SCLMIA nov-20 dec-20 jan-21
PAX 12.134 13.602 10.171
SEATS 16.380 15.795 14.508
LF 74% 86% 70%

January was down a bit mainly because of tougher restrictions regarding the entrance of foreigners and chileans coming from abroad.

Thanks for the color. Very interesting. I would think LFs will drop further for the interim as Chile has entered a more restrictive lockdown.

descl · Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:38 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
descl wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:

How are the load factors on flights to South America (to places like LIM, GRU, SCL, BOG)?

I have the following information regarding AA´s SCL-MIA:
SCLMIA nov-20 dec-20 jan-21
PAX 12.134 13.602 10.171
SEATS 16.380 15.795 14.508
LF 74% 86% 70%

January was down a bit mainly because of tougher restrictions regarding the entrance of foreigners and chileans coming from abroad.

Thanks for the color. Very interesting. I would think LFs will drop further for the interim as Chile has entered a more restrictive lockdown.

I think we could expect a different effect. In Chile, when a city is under a lockdown (fase 1 o 2), people can not travel to another city, and as of today 90% of chilean population is under these measures. On the other hand, there are no restrictions for traveling abroad other than a mandatory 10 day quarantine on arrival and a negative PCR test. Therefore it´s easier to travel abroad than whithin Chile, so I think this lockdown may increase people desire to travel abroad to places like the USA or the Caribbean, that are considered as destinations with no restrictions. In fact, during Q2, airlines are significantly expanding on routes between the US and Chile (AA restarting daily SCL-DFW this week and starting SCL-JFK in may, UA going from 3 to 5 weekly this week, LATAM 2 daily to MIA in april, etc.).

dcajet · Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:16 pm

Couple of developments at AA @ EZE:

* Argentinian government requested a further 10% reduction in frequencies from the US and other markets (Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia et al; I believe Brazil - now the world's COVID hotspot ai at a 70% reduction rate. Curiously, no reductions requested on flights to/fr Europe), Thus, AA had to delay the return of JFK-EZE until May and took a frequency off the DFW-EZE flights, now down to 2x w; the route is being "upgauged" to the 777-200 effective April (currently 787-9) on account of cargo space.

* The MIA-EZE cash cow is not being reduced. It's running at a 90%-100$ LF now and completely sold out for Easter week. In fact, coach r/t fares with a change of plane @ LIM on LATAM begin at US$4,000.

https://www.sirchandler.com.ar/2021/03/ ... -agotados/

ContinentalEWR · Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:09 am

dcajet wrote:
Couple of developments at AA @ EZE:

* Argentinian government requested a further 10% reduction in frequencies from the US and other markets (Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia et al; I believe Brazil - now the world's COVID hotspot ai at a 70% reduction rate. Curiously, no reductions requested on flights to/fr Europe), Thus, AA had to delay the return of JFK-EZE until May and took a frequency off the DFW-EZE flights, now down to 2x w; the route is being "upgauged" to the 777-200 effective April (currently 787-9) on account of cargo space.

* The MIA-EZE cash cow is not being reduced. It's running at a 90%-100$ LF now and completely sold out for Easter week. In fact, coach r/t fares with a change of plane @ LIM on LATAM begin at US$4,000.

https://www.sirchandler.com.ar/2021/03/ ... -agotados/

Thanks for sharing this update. Sir Chandler is an awesome blogger, btw....MIA-EZE prints money and in normal, non-pandemic times, it goes out 3 x daily in peak season, with one 77W and 2 772s. It is not surprising that DFW took a reduction in frequency. AA will not sacrifice the MIA route if it does not have to. With LATAM Argentina gone and AR quite limited with just the A330-200s, it stands to reason they would reduce DFW to 2 x weekly for now and use a 772 to allow for more cargo. The JFK route will return. It also does well but right now, it likely would not.

Cboyle · Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:23 pm

Is american going to start a route from BOS to MCO? My dad wants to use his AAdvantage miles to visit family and wants to only fly direct.

MLIAA · Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:16 pm

Cboyle wrote:
Is american going to start a route from BOS to MCO? My dad wants to use his AAdvantage miles to visit family and wants to only fly direct.

AA will not fly the route, but they will let you book a codeshare on jetBlue through aa.com and you should be able to use AAdvantage miles.

Cboyle · Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:41 pm

MLIAA wrote:
Cboyle wrote:
Is american going to start a route from BOS to MCO? My dad wants to use his AAdvantage miles to visit family and wants to only fly direct.

AA will not fly the route, but they will let you book a codeshare on jetBlue through aa.com and you should be able to use AAdvantage miles.

When will that start?

MAH4546 · Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:48 pm

I wasn’t sure it would start but sure enough it has. Miami-Barcelona relaunched today and takes off in half an hour. Operating daily and the only nonstop flight between Barcelona and North America for the moment.

ContinentalEWR · Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:02 pm

AA 44 JFK-CDG relaunched today. First operations in a year.

Ishrion · Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:24 pm

PHL-DUB/LHR, MIA-LHR, DFW-SCL will relaunch in a few hours.

JFK-GRU, LAX-LHR relaunch tomorrow night.

DFW-MAD is about to depart, DFW-FCO is underway.

Planeboy17 · Sat Mar 27, 2021 11:59 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
PSA727 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:

2. Why on earth does CMI need to be linked to DCA?

Well, it is the nation's capital with a large private sector in the region. Also, there are dozens of cities served by AA at DCA which people can also connect onto. So, I think it would be better than CMI-PHL. Also, I think AA wants that additional slot pair at DCA.

Fun fact apropos of absolutely nothing, CMI had nonstop service to DC for many years on Ozark. At one time the service actually continued on to LGA.

Tip of the hat to anyone who can reference Ozark in any thread.

Brickell305 · Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:24 am

Ishrion wrote:
PHL-DUB/LHR, MIA-LHR, DFW-SCL will relaunch in a few hours.

JFK-GRU, LAX-LHR relaunch tomorrow night.

DFW-MAD is about to depart, DFW-FCO is underway.

I didn't realize MIA-LHR was cut. I thought they kept that and DFW-LHR going throughout the pandemic.

MAH4546 · Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:48 am

Brickell305 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
PHL-DUB/LHR, MIA-LHR, DFW-SCL will relaunch in a few hours.

JFK-GRU, LAX-LHR relaunch tomorrow night.

DFW-MAD is about to depart, DFW-FCO is underway.

I didn't realize MIA-LHR was cut. I thought they kept that and DFW-LHR going throughout the pandemic.

Through most of it, yes, but it was hasn’t operated since January 5.

ContinentalEWR · Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:21 am

Ishrion wrote:
PHL-DUB/LHR, MIA-LHR, DFW-SCL will relaunch in a few hours.

JFK-GRU, LAX-LHR relaunch tomorrow night.

DFW-MAD is about to depart, DFW-FCO is underway.

AA 104 JFK-LHR relaunches today, which will be on a 772 so AA is up to 2 x daily from today (AA 100 goes out on the 77W).

MLIAA · Sun Mar 28, 2021 3:48 am

Cboyle wrote:
MLIAA wrote:
Cboyle wrote:
Is american going to start a route from BOS to MCO? My dad wants to use his AAdvantage miles to visit family and wants to only fly direct.

AA will not fly the route, but they will let you book a codeshare on jetBlue through aa.com and you should be able to use AAdvantage miles.

When will that start?

It is bookable now

BarrenLucidity · Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:32 am

Looks like CLT-DUB and CLT-MAD are re-starting June?

alasizon · Sun Mar 28, 2021 4:27 pm

BarrenLucidity wrote:
Looks like CLT-DUB and CLT-MAD are re-starting June?

Any longhaul resumptions/less than daily in June and forward is more tentative right now than anything. The APA just agreed to an LOA on scope relief for INTL widebody hours for the summer so the schedule is being redone again.

Boston757 · Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:05 pm

Does anyone know how many slots AA has to LHR. Secondly how many are they currently or expected to use.

Ishrion · Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:14 pm

They have/plan to use 7,798 LHR slots for Summer 2021: https://www.acl-uk.org/wp-content/uploa ... -S21-1.pdf

SEA - 435
MIA - 433
CLT/PHL - 792
BOS/PHX/RDU - 358
DFW - 1,507
LAX - 612
ORD - 1,151
JFK - 1,002

Byrdluvs747 · Sun Mar 28, 2021 7:58 pm

Did AA lose or gain any slots during the pandemic? What about BA (since they're in a JV)?

Sancho99504 · Sun Mar 28, 2021 10:18 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
The 777s are showing up in a lot of domestic spokes. We're even getting the 77E on SEA-DFW for a few weeks at least to bridge SEA-BLR.

SEA-BLR will be a 789, if and when it actually launches, alongside SEA-PVG (also 789) not a 77E. The 777 on DFW-SEA will likely be to provide the frame for SEA-LHR.

My bad. I was thinking faster than I was typing. Thanks for correcting it.

SeaDoo · Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:34 am

Can't believe Seattle beats Miami, and Boston. How things have changed.

jumpjets · Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:17 am

Byrdluvs747 wrote:
Did AA lose or gain any slots during the pandemic? What about BA (since they're in a JV)?

In N. Summer 2020 AA were allocated 9,548 slots. This summer AA have 7,798 slots. There is therefore a significant reduction in the number of slots available for AA to use in Summer 2021 compared to last year.

However if I understand the 'special rules' applying during the covid pandemic correctly airlines informed the slot allocator how many slots they anticipated using and any they aren't planning to use are available to other airlines. See the threads relating to slots awarded to the likes of Jet Blue, Vistara etc..

The 1,750 slot reduction for AA this season does not mean therefore that the slots have been lost but have been relinquished temporarily and should be available to them again next year - presumably by then under the usual 'use it or lose it' rules.

Seat0F · Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:29 pm

jumpjets wrote:
Byrdluvs747 wrote:
Did AA lose or gain any slots during the pandemic? What about BA (since they're in a JV)?

In N. Summer 2020 AA were allocated 9,548 slots. This summer AA have 7,798 slots. There is therefore a significant reduction in the number of slots available for AA to use in Summer 2021 compared to last year.

However if I understand the 'special rules' applying during the covid pandemic correctly airlines informed the slot allocator how many slots they anticipated using and any they aren't planning to use are available to other airlines. See the threads relating to slots awarded to the likes of Jet Blue, Vistara etc..

The 1,750 slot reduction for AA this season does not mean therefore that the slots have been lost but have been relinquished temporarily and should be available to them again next year - presumably by then under the usual 'use it or lose it' rules.

This is exactly correct. The likes of JetBlue etc have only secured slots for summer 2021 and will in all likelihood lose them when the 80:20 rules return and other airlines, like AA are forced to fly their slots (or sell them). Still its a freebee entry for these other airlines to test the water with these free temporary slots to see if it is worth trying to get hold of them permanently.

B752OS · Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:35 pm

SeaDoo wrote:
Can't believe Seattle beats Miami, and Boston. How things have changed.

They're going to run more seats to Miami than Seattle. Also, both Boston and Miami will have greater service levels from BA than Seattle.

Brickell305 · Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:40 pm

B752OS wrote:
SeaDoo wrote:
Can't believe Seattle beats Miami, and Boston. How things have changed.

They're going to run more seats to Miami than Seattle. Also, both Boston and Miami will have greater service levels from BA than Seattle.

Also, the slot difference between SEA and MIA is the equivalent of one takeoff and one landing. In essence, that just means that SEA-LHR started one day before MIA-LHR restarted.

GCT64 · Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:51 pm

Unsurprisingly, given the travel restrictions into and from the UK, it appears that a lot of the "daily" fights SEA-LHR are being cancelled.
AA.com says: Sun 28 Mar = cancelled, Mon 29 Mar = cancelled, Tue 30 Mar = operating, Wed 31 Mar = cancelled, Thu 1 Apr = operating.
A quick check of the load for today's flight shows only about 20+ seats occupied/blocked off, with the rest available, this is also unsurprising.

Ishrion · Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:04 pm

GCT64 wrote:
Unsurprisingly, given the travel restrictions into and from the UK, it appears that a lot of the "daily" fights SEA-LHR are being cancelled.
AA.com says: Sun 28 Mar = cancelled, Mon 29 Mar = cancelled, Tue 30 Mar = operating, Wed 31 Mar = cancelled, Thu 1 Apr = operating.
A quick check of the load for today's flight shows only about 20+ seats occupied/blocked off, with the rest available, this is also unsurprising.

AA will operate 3x weekly passenger SEA-LHR flights until June 3 when it increases to daily, subject to change.

Those "cancelled" flights have been replaced by cargo-only SEA-LHR flights: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/aa9817

AA technically remains daily on SEA-LHR, but it's split between 3x passenger and 4x cargo.

ahj2000 · Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:12 pm

It seems like JFK-FCO is being removed (at least some days) in order to boost DFW-FCO? I have a buddy booked DCA-JFK-FCO vv but his return now has him booked FCO-DFW-DCA.
Why would they pick DFW over any NE airport? So far out of the way. Just that FCO-DFW leg is going to take about as long as the entire itinerary was supposed to originally.

806535 · Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:31 pm

Per JonNYC,
"July proposal showing SEA-ICN as a pax not just cargo flight", of course with a "**highly subject to change**" at the end

Hard to keep track of all the AA long-haul Seattle theories at this point but I don't remember this previously being thrown around. I'd be surprised if this became a scheduled service post-COVID given DL's partnership with KE and general strength to ICN (not to mention both airlines served the route pre-COVID).

ContinentalEWR · Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:44 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
It seems like JFK-FCO is being removed (at least some days) in order to boost DFW-FCO? I have a buddy booked DCA-JFK-FCO vv but his return now has him booked FCO-DFW-DCA.
Why would they pick DFW over any NE airport? So far out of the way. Just that FCO-DFW leg is going to take about as long as the entire itinerary was supposed to originally.

Europe is in the grips of another wave, with vaccine rollout a mess and demand to Italy is unlikely to pick up much. AZ's sole long haul passenger route, to JFK from FCO and back does not even operate daily. AA has probably calculated that only DFW and JFK will operate this Spring and Summer, with DFW-FCO having resumed this past weekend and on the smallest wide body AA has, the 787-8 (this is usually a 777-200ER route). PHL-FCO, ORD-FCO are highly unlikely at this point this year, and CLT-FCO was axed.

AC4500 · Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:58 pm

OscarAlphaKilo wrote:
Per JonNYC,
"July proposal showing SEA-ICN as a pax not just cargo flight", of course with a "**highly subject to change**" at the end

Hard to keep track of all the AA long-haul Seattle theories at this point but I don't remember this previously being thrown around. I'd be surprised if this became a scheduled service post-COVID given DL's partnership with KE and general strength to ICN (not to mention both airlines served the route pre-COVID).

Interesting. Is this a standalone flight or will it be a continuation to PVG?

ContinentalEWR · Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:00 pm

AC4500 wrote:
OscarAlphaKilo wrote:
Per JonNYC,
"July proposal showing SEA-ICN as a pax not just cargo flight", of course with a "**highly subject to change**" at the end

Hard to keep track of all the AA long-haul Seattle theories at this point but I don't remember this previously being thrown around. I'd be surprised if this became a scheduled service post-COVID given DL's partnership with KE and general strength to ICN (not to mention both airlines served the route pre-COVID).

Interesting. Is this a standalone flight or will it be a continuation to PVG?

Wondering if that's just it, a stopover to PVG for now and not a permanent add. Pre-pandemic though the DFW-ICN route did well, and AA actually has or had a code share with KE on this route, in spite of KE being DL's biggest Asia partner and an anchor of SkyTeam.

Nicknuzzii · Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:04 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
It seems like JFK-FCO is being removed (at least some days) in order to boost DFW-FCO? I have a buddy booked DCA-JFK-FCO vv but his return now has him booked FCO-DFW-DCA.
Why would they pick DFW over any NE airport? So far out of the way. Just that FCO-DFW leg is going to take about as long as the entire itinerary was supposed to originally.

Europe is in the grips of another wave, with vaccine rollout a mess and demand to Italy is unlikely to pick up much. AZ's sole long haul passenger route, to JFK from FCO and back does not even operate daily. AA has probably calculated that only DFW and JFK will operate this Spring and Summer, with DFW-FCO having resumed this past weekend and on the smallest wide body AA has, the 787-8 (this is usually a 777-200ER route). PHL-FCO, ORD-FCO are highly unlikely at this point this year, and CLT-FCO was axed.

PHL-FCO might be more likely because they have already axed DFW-DUB in favor of PHL.

806535 · Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:06 pm

AC4500 wrote:
OscarAlphaKilo wrote:
Per JonNYC,
"July proposal showing SEA-ICN as a pax not just cargo flight", of course with a "**highly subject to change**" at the end

Hard to keep track of all the AA long-haul Seattle theories at this point but I don't remember this previously being thrown around. I'd be surprised if this became a scheduled service post-COVID given DL's partnership with KE and general strength to ICN (not to mention both airlines served the route pre-COVID).

Interesting. Is this a standalone flight or will it be a continuation to PVG?

Good question. FWIW, the following was included in the same post:
"3x DFW-ICN (is because of PEK/PVG-- both will be served (under this proposed schedule.))"

I'd guess if it were continuing to PVG that would've been indicated as it was for DFW, but at the same time it was included in a thread about the SEA-PVG flight.

UPDATE: Follow up posts: "DFW-ICN-PVG/PEK" and "SEA-PVG listed for June-- again as 'proposed'". I'd interpret as pointing to SEA-ICN being standalone. Could an SEA flight potentially feed the ICN-PVG/PEK portion of DFW-ICN-PVG/PEK without violating any cabotage rules?

ContinentalEWR · Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:52 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
It seems like JFK-FCO is being removed (at least some days) in order to boost DFW-FCO? I have a buddy booked DCA-JFK-FCO vv but his return now has him booked FCO-DFW-DCA.
Why would they pick DFW over any NE airport? So far out of the way. Just that FCO-DFW leg is going to take about as long as the entire itinerary was supposed to originally.

Europe is in the grips of another wave, with vaccine rollout a mess and demand to Italy is unlikely to pick up much. AZ's sole long haul passenger route, to JFK from FCO and back does not even operate daily. AA has probably calculated that only DFW and JFK will operate this Spring and Summer, with DFW-FCO having resumed this past weekend and on the smallest wide body AA has, the 787-8 (this is usually a 777-200ER route). PHL-FCO, ORD-FCO are highly unlikely at this point this year, and CLT-FCO was axed.

PHL-FCO might be more likely because they have already axed DFW-DUB in favor of PHL.

That makes no sense. FCO and DUB are two different markets.

ahj2000 · Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:20 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:

Europe is in the grips of another wave, with vaccine rollout a mess and demand to Italy is unlikely to pick up much. AZ's sole long haul passenger route, to JFK from FCO and back does not even operate daily. AA has probably calculated that only DFW and JFK will operate this Spring and Summer, with DFW-FCO having resumed this past weekend and on the smallest wide body AA has, the 787-8 (this is usually a 777-200ER route). PHL-FCO, ORD-FCO are highly unlikely at this point this year, and CLT-FCO was axed.

PHL-FCO might be more likely because they have already axed DFW-DUB in favor of PHL.

That makes no sense. FCO and DUB are two different markets.

True, but both have demand concentrated in the NEC and Chicago. (Sure, there's a bit more Italy demand to LA/SF/FL, but it's primarily going to be flown directly over. Makes little sense.

MAH4546 · Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:48 pm

ahj2000 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

PHL-FCO might be more likely because they have already axed DFW-DUB in favor of PHL.

That makes no sense. FCO and DUB are two different markets.

True, but both have demand concentrated in the NEC and Chicago. (Sure, there's a bit more Italy demand to LA/SF/FL, but it's primarily going to be flown directly over. Makes little sense.

Florida is much larger to Ireland and Italy than Chicago is. There is no Chicago concentration.

But yes it makes little sense to overfly it by going to Dallas, but again traffic patterns are changing right now, not like there are many European tourists going to Florida at the moment. Florida-Europe right now is basically VFR traffic from Miami. Orlando hasn't had a flight to Europe in over a year and still does not.

ContinentalEWR · Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:51 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
ahj2000 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:

That makes no sense. FCO and DUB are two different markets.

True, but both have demand concentrated in the NEC and Chicago. (Sure, there's a bit more Italy demand to LA/SF/FL, but it's primarily going to be flown directly over. Makes little sense.

Florida is much larger to Ireland and Italy than Chicago is. There is no Chicago concentration.

But yes it makes little sense to overfly it by going to Dallas, but again traffic patterns are changing right now, not like there are many European tourists going to Florida at the moment. Florida-Europe right now is basically VFR traffic from Miami. Orlando hasn't had a flight to Europe in over a year and still does not.

There's not much point in flying BOTH PHL and JFK to FCO daily given the low level of demand and the probability that Summer 2021 in Italy will look a lot like 2020. The DFW to FCO route runs because of the huge feed at DFW and the cargo, both of which pull from the West Coast, where currently, there is no service to Italy that is nonstop. As for DUB, it is a short sector from the East Coast and while business traffic is a long way away from rebounding meaningfully, it's probably easier and cheaper for AA to fill a plane to DUB from PHL than it is from DFW where the stage length is longer and allows AA to have an East Coast to Ireland service. Unclear if CLT-DUB resumes this year or not. If JFK-FCO ends up not flying this year, it will be 2 years without it. Pre-pandemic, it was a profitable route for AA. So much so that in 2019 for the 2020 season, had it not been for COVID, it would have operated a longer season, beginning mid March through end of October.

cathay747 · Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:04 pm

OscarAlphaKilo wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
OscarAlphaKilo wrote:
Per JonNYC,
"July proposal showing SEA-ICN as a pax not just cargo flight", of course with a "**highly subject to change**" at the end

Hard to keep track of all the AA long-haul Seattle theories at this point but I don't remember this previously being thrown around. I'd be surprised if this became a scheduled service post-COVID given DL's partnership with KE and general strength to ICN (not to mention both airlines served the route pre-COVID).

Interesting. Is this a standalone flight or will it be a continuation to PVG?

Good question. FWIW, the following was included in the same post:
"3x DFW-ICN (is because of PEK/PVG-- both will be served (under this proposed schedule.))"

I'd guess if it were continuing to PVG that would've been indicated as it was for DFW, but at the same time it was included in a thread about the SEA-PVG flight.

UPDATE: Follow up posts: "DFW-ICN-PVG/PEK" and "SEA-PVG listed for June-- again as 'proposed'". I'd interpret as pointing to SEA-ICN being standalone. Could an SEA flight potentially feed the ICN-PVG/PEK portion of DFW-ICN-PVG/PEK without violating any cabotage rules?

ICN-PVG/PEK as an extension from a U.S.-originating service wouldn't be/isn't cabotage, that would be a 5th Freedom service. Cabotage is carrying traffic wholly (domestically) within a country. So yes, if 5th freedoms are allowed in the A.S.A. between the U.S. & South Korea, they could do it...and IIRC there is an Open Skies treaty and if so, the issue is moot...AA could do it.

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