TPAC is not easy for AA. But if they are still keen on it, I see the following in decreasing order of likelihood:-
1. SEA-HKG: AA just dropped LAX-HKG and CX is a close partner (they just pulled down SEA recently). 2x daily to HKG will offer good aircraft utilization.
2. SEA-PKX: CZ is growing quite a good hub there, but MU spoiled its chances by splitting operations between PEK & PKX, further reducing connections for DL. AA/AS/CZ will have double the feed of DL/MU at both SEA and PKX giving it an upper edge.
3. SEA-MNL: PR will be a new partner provided UA’s dispute is resolved. If they are serious about the partnership, this is a good opportunity, as no other airline will have the opportunity of feed at both SEA and MNL, nor do I see anyone else interested in this route.
4. SEA-ICN: will be a tough one for AA. But KE/AA have a cozy relationship & even cooperate on DFW-ICN. Depending on what the terms are for the KE/OZ merger, KE might be required to provide favorable interline rates to UA and AA if they want the JV with DL to be sustained (similar to what BA was required to at LHR).
5. SEA-SIN: will be tough for AA, but surely there is a market for it with the tech traffic. But this is probably not happening unless AS severs its ties with SQ.
I don’t see anything in Europe except LHR. The same reason why DL has not ventured beyond AMS/CDG/LHR.
So is the consensus is that AA is going all in on SEA as a TPAC gateway? What does that mean for Delta? Will they pull down at SEA? Look elsewhere for a TPAC hub? DL for years benefited from the partnership with AS to feed TPAC flights until the decided to start feeding them with their own metal. With the growth of AA and said partnership with AS, that surely puts DL at a weak position in SEA. Unless they don't mind a dual hub, similar to UA/AA at ORD
My opinion on this is SEA becomes the second option to DFW serving a few types of TPAC for AA.
1) TPAC destinations that can't be reached economically from DFW
2) Key Business destinations that AA needs for west coast network reasons that doesn't back track to DFW
3) Any O&D + AS PNW connections that locally support a route.
I think AA & AS will be more than happy to use OW partners where available as well.
As far as routes.
AA will launch a second HKG from somewhere, but may still be LAX, the aircraft utilization with just DFW is terrible.
PKX is a possibility if China demand recovers, but I think it will be limited to DFW for a few years at least
SIN - biggest issue is it's just dominated by *A
MNL - possible if we get back to '19 level of traffic with growth trends again
ICN - Dominated by Skyteam, could happen if OW grabs right corporate accounts.
Secondary Japan - more likely DFW on AA metal, not SEA JL would handle west coast expansions
TPE - DFW first,
Other India - JFK or DFW seem more likely as east bound works
717, 733, 734, 738, 739, 744, 752, 763, 772, 77W, 789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A333, A359, MD88, CRJ, CR7, CR9, DH1, DH2, DH3, S340, ER4, E170, E175, E190/CO, NW, US, AC, NH, AA, UA, DL, WN, WS, SK, VY, LA, QF, AR, AV, MH, KA, AS