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dca1
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Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:39 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:34 pm

What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?
 
IdlewildJFK
Posts: 54
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 1:25 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:29 pm

dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


JetBlue has a lot of codeshare and interline agreements with airlines not in Oneworld, including in cites outside the NEA4. Some are bigger than others but enough to say I can’t see them joining and risking loosing other valuable sources of income. B6 codeshare and interlines are spread out through various independent and alliances. They pick and choose the ones and I can’t see them wanting to put all their eggs in one basket.

The NEA is less about B6 wanting to be in a major tie up with AA as it is opportunistic for both AA and B6 in 4 select markets. We shouldn’t read into it more than that.

So I’ll put it 1%. Maybe less.
 
trueblew
Posts: 231
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 02, 2021 3:36 pm

dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


Very close to 0% based on their current model.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6194
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 02, 2021 5:51 pm

A couple of point of musing. For summer, they look to be running about 48 departure on mint (18 JFK, 13 BOS, 8 EWR, 9 SoFla) on probably 36 mint aircraft. Pretty aggressive scheduling. Last summer, they had originally scheduled in 47 departures on 35 aircraft. I thought that was really stretching things. they are taking 2 more A321LD this year. Even if PBI-LAX moves to an A320, they are going to run out of mint aircraft when NYC/BOS-LAX/SFO demand comes back a little more. And they are not scheduled to take another A321LD next year. Not sure how they will manage next summer.

Anyway, some more T-100 numbers on domestic flights. I have the LF for October to December out of their large stations + their highest/lowest LF routes. Keep in mind that they had 70% cap in Oct/Nov and 85% cap in December

Station Seats Boarded LF
JFK 1205178 615122 51.04
MCO 796326 466366 58.56
BOS 1316472 659531 50.10
SJU 571576 325117 56.88
LAX 496479 244620 49.27
FLL 967160 571163 59.06
EWR 640830 369893 57.72

Not a real surprise that MCO/FLL had the highest LF here. EWR was doing clearly better than JFK/BOS. Looks like those west coast LAX stuff really suffered in Q4.

Lowest 10
CityPair Seats Boarded LF
RDURSW 5352 1405 26.25
BTVJFK 7324 1934 26.41
JFKSYR 10550 2882 27.32
LAXSFO 11445 3146 27.49
LAXSEA 9528 2765 29.02
ACKJFK 7800 2310 29.62
ABQJFK 8352 2484 29.74
BNAJFK 6316 1884 29.83
SJUSTT 11998 3672 30.61
JFKMSP 6820 2173 31.86

It looks like some of these shorthaul JFK routes (that they probably had to operate due to CARES act) really dragged down overall station performance. I guess it's not a surprise to see LAX-SFO/SEA and JFK-MSP/BNA at low frequencies even this summer.

Highest 10
CityPair Seats Boarded LF
EWRFLL 100266 66177 66.00
SJUTPA 22416 14472 64.56
EWRMCO 137420 88332 64.28
AUSLAX 23532 15045 63.93
EWRTPA 63548 40442 63.64
JFKMCO 123380 77904 63.14
ATLFLL 32934 20791 63.13
FLLLAS 31540 19626 62.23
MCOSJU 138738 86044 62.02
BDLMCO 33542 20703 61.72

Looking at this list, those EWR Florida routes did great. SJU Florida stuff did well too. Aside from that, FLL-ATL/LAS were consistent top performers. Made a lot of sense for them to go to 3x on FLL-ATL. Maybe they can even grow further there. I see NK at 7x on that route now and 5x on DTW-FLL. Amazing to see how they are just exploding on these routes that suppose to be dominated by DL.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6194
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:45 pm

From CF's update this week.

Their big summer schedule update resulted in 15% less capacity. Apparently, still up 4% in June, 11% in July and down 1% in August vs 2019. I have to think that June/July will see more cuts still. Rest of the schedule still up 30% over 2019.

As Ishrion posted on the other thread, https://paxex.aero/jetblue-a220-inaugur ... paign=5308 A220 is starting off a little earlier than announced on BOS-TPA. That's good news.

Looks like their second A220 might be ready for test flights soon https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55104

I was flipping through DL pilot board and noticed that their major bid for all the displaced pilots ended up with SEA getting a disproportionately large number of positions. NYC was a distant second, but I think that's more due to a lot of people being displaced from their NYC base originally due to that base being relatively junior. On top of that, DL had already been building up SLC and LAX faster than its other hubs. For the few years pre-COVID, JetBlue was the victim of too much competition at JFK and BOS. The end product of COVID might be a dramatic easing in pressure they face in NYC/Boston. It's often said that legacy carriers can quickly put a lot of resources into new hubs/focus cities even when they are growing just 4% a year. The flip side of that is when they are still down 10 to 15% a year from now, those new projects will be chopped a lot more than 10 to 15%. Aside from less pressure at JFK/BOS, RDU will probably be stagnant as long as DL is busy adding capacity to SEA/SLC/LAX. All of which means jetBlue should still have growth opportunities in RDU even if they are just busy adding to NYC for the next 18 months.

I take no pleasure in this next point since I'm Canadian, but it appears that Canadian carriers are in a lot of trouble. Westjet just laid off another 415 pilots. While the transborder market is extremely quiet right now, it will eventually come back to life after Canada lifts the border restrictions with America. It seems to me that YYZ is the next largest international business market after London and Paris. AA was never particularly competitive on LGA-YYZ. Without those TATL/TPAC connections, AC will have a harder time to dominate the market with frequencies as it has in the past. until that traffic comes back, the next year might be the best time for B6 to try LGA/BOS-YYZ and establish some reputation in the market before AC can connect to all those international destinations again.

B6 is currently scheduled in the summer for up to 20 international flights a day out of EWR. A lot of the flights are scheduled to arrive at relatively good times. I don't think they would've had access to so many good arrival time slots into Terminal B pre-COVID. It made a lot of sense for them to schedule in these flights while TATL flights are down. I would think they will be grandfathered these times going forward. Having a lot of arrivals in B effectively gives them additional gates also. If they can get 14 gates in the new Terminal 1, they could operate 120+ flights a day.
 
FARmd90
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:49 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:39 am

A notification was sent out on one of the communication apps to “tune in for a London announcement tomorrow” 04/06
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1761
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:45 am

Anyone know if they are planning another schedule for May?
 
Ishrion
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:07 pm

FARmd90 wrote:
A notification was sent out on one of the communication apps to “tune in for a London announcement tomorrow” 04/06


Nothing on the specific London airport. Today's announcement is about Economy Class/Core: http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -140053087
 
fcogafa
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:10 pm

Quoting the article:

"Details on fares, schedules and which London airport will be served will be announced at a later date"

Ishrion wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
A notification was sent out on one of the communication apps to “tune in for a London announcement tomorrow” 04/06


Nothing on the specific London airport. Today's announcement is about Economy Class/Core: http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -140053087
 
FARmd90
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:49 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:28 pm

Ishrion wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:
A notification was sent out on one of the communication apps to “tune in for a London announcement tomorrow” 04/06


Nothing on the specific London airport. Today's announcement is about Economy Class/Core: http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -140053087


Yes just saw this. Was hoping for an airport announcement but it looks like we will have to wait a little longer for that. The new core service for TATL looks really good and exciting. A nice change of pace from how it’s currently done.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:48 pm

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... 005628/en/

This link also has photos of the meals. Very cool IMHO. Sounds like it's a combination of their existing Mint Service and Delta's new economy product. Everyone will have a choice of three main options consisting of some type of protein, plus a choice of three (everyone can choose two) side options which will both be hot and cold. Sample options indicated in the PR include "roasted chicken thigh over a base of brown rice with herbs and spiced eggplant over coconut cauliflower quinoa, with sides including Dig’s beloved mac and cheese and a mixed heirloom tomato salad sourced directly from Dig Acres in upstate New York. For morning departures, the menu will include a mix of sweet and savory breakfast dishes, including a mixed berry bread pudding and citrus salad with local honey".

Liquor/beer/wine will also be complimentary in addition to their standard snack offering, and a pre-arrival service will also be offered.

I'm fascinated to see how this will be executed, especially because it looks like everyone will order their meal via the seatback screen. It looks like an expensive offering, given the variety and quality involved. It looks like they will be using reusable crockery as well.
RJ85, F70, E135, E140, E145, E70, E75, E90, CR2, CR7, CR9, 717, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 744ER, 752, 753, 762, 763ER, 772, 77E, 77W, 789, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343, 359, 388
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:27 pm

I'm wondering where they are going to fit all this stuff though.
 
tphuang
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Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 3:46 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
I'm wondering where they are going to fit all this stuff though.


If they had packed it as densely as A321LD, they would've had 1 more row of Y seating and have 3 fewer rows of Y+. And A321LD already had full rear galley that you care about and market place. They will also have 4 lavatories for 138 passengers, so that won't be a problem.

So this aircraft is going to have plenty of space for additional luggages and catering.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 190
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:08 pm

USAirALB wrote:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210406005628/en/

This link also has photos of the meals. Very cool IMHO. Sounds like it's a combination of their existing Mint Service and Delta's new economy product. Everyone will have a choice of three main options consisting of some type of protein, plus a choice of three (everyone can choose two) side options which will both be hot and cold. Sample options indicated in the PR include "roasted chicken thigh over a base of brown rice with herbs and spiced eggplant over coconut cauliflower quinoa, with sides including Dig’s beloved mac and cheese and a mixed heirloom tomato salad sourced directly from Dig Acres in upstate New York. For morning departures, the menu will include a mix of sweet and savory breakfast dishes, including a mixed berry bread pudding and citrus salad with local honey".

Liquor/beer/wine will also be complimentary in addition to their standard snack offering, and a pre-arrival service will also be offered.

I'm fascinated to see how this will be executed, especially because it looks like everyone will order their meal via the seatback screen. It looks like an expensive offering, given the variety and quality involved. It looks like they will be using reusable crockery as well.

The in-flight service (and the food especially) look fantastic. I think a lot of people will enjoy flying B6 across the pond if this will be the soft product they want to offer.
 
Runway765
Posts: 317
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:47 am

I hope B6 adds markets such as IND/CVG/MEM/STL when it launches London flights.
 
B6BOSfan
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:11 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:10 am

JetBlue website hasn't been available to book flights most of Tuesday night. Gotta imagine work is taking place for ... something to come?

Weird message:
"Our website is currently undergoing maintenance and should be back up shortly. We’re sorry for the inconvenience! In the meantime, book a flight through our partner, Priceline."
 
hbernal1
Posts: 190
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:48 am

Runway765 wrote:
I hope B6 adds markets such as IND/CVG/MEM/STL when it launches London flights.

I'd be surprised if B6 don't add at least a few of these markets to help with feed for their London flights. The next big destination for B6 is Hawaii, which will be hugely important for LAX/SFO as West Coast connection points.
B6BOSfan wrote:
JetBlue website hasn't been available to book flights most of Tuesday night. Gotta imagine work is taking place for ... something to come?

Weird message:
"Our website is currently undergoing maintenance and should be back up shortly. We’re sorry for the inconvenience! In the meantime, book a flight through our partner, Priceline."

Yeah, I'm not too sure what to make of that either.
 
Wneast
Posts: 541
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:37 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:50 am

hbernal1 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
I hope B6 adds markets such as IND/CVG/MEM/STL when it launches London flights.

I'd be surprised if B6 don't add at least a few of these markets to help with feed for their London flights. The next big destination for B6 is Hawaii, which will be hugely important for LAX/SFO as West Coast connection points.
B6BOSfan wrote:
JetBlue website hasn't been available to book flights most of Tuesday night. Gotta imagine work is taking place for ... something to come?

Weird message:
"Our website is currently undergoing maintenance and should be back up shortly. We’re sorry for the inconvenience! In the meantime, book a flight through our partner, Priceline."

Yeah, I'm not too sure what to make of that either.

Would they just add Hawaii from LAX and SFO I imagine there isn’t many places they could compete with southwest going to Hawaii in the near future?
 
hbernal1
Posts: 190
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:05 am

Wneast wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
I hope B6 adds markets such as IND/CVG/MEM/STL when it launches London flights.

I'd be surprised if B6 don't add at least a few of these markets to help with feed for their London flights. The next big destination for B6 is Hawaii, which will be hugely important for LAX/SFO as West Coast connection points.
B6BOSfan wrote:
JetBlue website hasn't been available to book flights most of Tuesday night. Gotta imagine work is taking place for ... something to come?

Weird message:
"Our website is currently undergoing maintenance and should be back up shortly. We’re sorry for the inconvenience! In the meantime, book a flight through our partner, Priceline."

Yeah, I'm not too sure what to make of that either.

Would they just add Hawaii from LAX and SFO I imagine there isn’t many places they could compete with southwest going to Hawaii in the near future?

My best guess would be yes, only LAX/SFO would see Hawaii service if SFO does become a focus city for JetBlue. Thinking about what other big airports are within reasonable range from Hawaii, it wouldn't end well for B6: LAS would be a mess with how big WN is there, PHX would likely be an even bigger disaster considering how big AA/WN are there, SEA would be just as bad with AS/DL there, and B6 would have next to no feed if they try it from SAN, which would doom the chances of such flights being successful.
Last edited by hbernal1 on Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Wneast
Posts: 541
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:08 am

hbernal1 wrote:
Wneast wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
I'd be surprised if B6 don't add at least a few of these markets to help with feed for their London flights. The next big destination for B6 is Hawaii, which will be hugely important for LAX/SFO as West Coast connection points.

Yeah, I'm not too sure what to make of that either.

Would they just add Hawaii from LAX and SFO I imagine there isn’t many places they could compete with southwest going to Hawaii in the near future?

My best guess would be yes, only LAX/SFO would see Hawaii service if SFO does become a focus city for JetBlue. Thinking about what other big airports are within reasonable range from Hawaii, it wouldn't end well for B6: LAS would be a mess with how big WN/NK/F9 are there, PHX would likely be an even bigger disaster considering how big AA/WN are there, SEA would be just as bad with AS/DL there, and B6 would have next to no feed if they try it from SAN, which would doom the chances of such flights being successful.
I don’t think they would fly from anywhere else I would see WN just pushing them out of any market they enter except LAX and SFO
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1761
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:45 am

Wneast wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
Wneast wrote:
Would they just add Hawaii from LAX and SFO I imagine there isn’t many places they could compete with southwest going to Hawaii in the near future?

My best guess would be yes, only LAX/SFO would see Hawaii service if SFO does become a focus city for JetBlue. Thinking about what other big airports are within reasonable range from Hawaii, it wouldn't end well for B6: LAS would be a mess with how big WN/NK/F9 are there, PHX would likely be an even bigger disaster considering how big AA/WN are there, SEA would be just as bad with AS/DL there, and B6 would have next to no feed if they try it from SAN, which would doom the chances of such flights being successful.
I don’t think they would fly from anywhere else I would see WN just pushing them out of any market they enter except LAX and SFO


I think it would take a long time for B6 to move past just LAX/SFO-HNL/OGG too. I don’t think they would go all in like WN.
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:57 am

Maybe the website is under maintenance because they are about to announce new cities or have another large scale schedule change or ff program change. They had issues with mint booking the day before they loaded in the summer schedule last week.

I'm not sure why the next big destination is Hawaii. It's not really that important for JetBlue. Starting service to London is a whole bigger ordeal than starting service to Hawaii. It's far and away the most important market out of East coast that they do not serve. It's also good if they add more of the midwest cities for feed. Once they have an ETOPS subfleet, going into HI is really not that hard. It will just be another mint market. They will only have 6 A321LRs by the end of 2022. With that, they can at best do 3 JFK-LON + 2 BOS-LON + maybe a supplemental JFK-KEF service in summer time.

Going to Canada would be a big deal. Going into deeper part of Brazil would be a big deal. Continental Europe would be a big deal.

Again, the focus needs to be on NYC and East coast for the next 2 years.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 190
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
Maybe the website is under maintenance because they are about to announce new cities or have another large scale schedule change or ff program change. They had issues with mint booking the day before they loaded in the summer schedule last week.

I'm not sure why the next big destination is Hawaii. It's not really that important for JetBlue. Starting service to London is a whole bigger ordeal than starting service to Hawaii. It's far and away the most important market out of East coast that they do not serve. It's also good if they add more of the midwest cities for feed. Once they have an ETOPS subfleet, going into HI is really not that hard. It will just be another mint market. They will only have 6 A321LRs by the end of 2022. With that, they can at best do 3 JFK-LON + 2 BOS-LON + maybe a supplemental JFK-KEF service in summer time.

Going to Canada would be a big deal. Going into deeper part of Brazil would be a big deal. Continental Europe would be a big deal.

Again, the focus needs to be on NYC and East coast for the next 2 years.

Hawaii would be pretty important for B6’s West Coast aspirations, especially if they plan on being relevant. TPAC has no chance of happening without a new longer-range A321 than the XLR or B6 adding widebodies to their fleet. Sure, going deeper into South American would be a pretty big deal for FLL. More continental Europe flights are important. And sure, Canada would be a great market for JetBlue to enter as well. But these won’t really be feasible at all (except for Canada) until the XLRs join the fleet.

But I do think Hawaii is a big deal for B6’s west coast strategy to make any sense. I don’t even disagree that for the next couple of years, the focus should be in NYC (NEA requires a lot of resources and new routes and more feed for London will be needed). They need to bring JFK up to a 200+ flight station and EWR seeing more demand coming back is likely to justify B6 having over 100 flights there in a few years time.
 
TWA85
Posts: 365
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:06 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:07 pm

dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


As others have already mentioned, B6 has relationships of varying degrees with airlines from all alliances which greatly negates the need to join an alliance. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising if they joined the AA-IAG Trans-Atlantic JV. Doing so could greatly help them obtain more LHR access and avoid competing head to head with AA-BA and DL-VS.
 
BlueBaller
Posts: 113
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:09 pm

tphuang wrote:
Maybe the website is under maintenance because they are about to announce new cities or have another large scale schedule change or ff program change. They had issues with mint booking the day before they loaded in the summer schedule last week.



I could see them formalizing their London plans tomorrow. On board product debuted yesterday. The Special Qualification ETOPS bid award for the pilots was posted on Monday. Most of the training effective dates were for August 31, 2021. That gives them <5 months. They really don't have a lot of time left to keep everyone waiting around and wondering.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1761
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:19 pm

BlueBaller wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Maybe the website is under maintenance because they are about to announce new cities or have another large scale schedule change or ff program change. They had issues with mint booking the day before they loaded in the summer schedule last week.



I could see them formalizing their London plans tomorrow. On board product debuted yesterday. The Special Qualification ETOPS bid award for the pilots was posted on Monday. Most of the training effective dates were for August 31, 2021. That gives them <5 months. They really don't have a lot of time left to keep everyone waiting around and wondering.


While it should be announced tomorrow I don’t think it will be. Just yesterday they said in the coming weeks.

I’m honestly surprised it’s been this long for new routes though following the press release in February it sounded like there was gonna be a bunch more.
 
User avatar
aemoreira1981
Posts: 3784
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:17 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:11 pm

TWA85 wrote:
dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


As others have already mentioned, B6 has relationships of varying degrees with airlines from all alliances which greatly negates the need to join an alliance. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising if they joined the AA-IAG Trans-Atlantic JV. Doing so could greatly help them obtain more LHR access and avoid competing head to head with AA-BA and DL-VS.


If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR?

Into Latin America, from FLL, once things dial down...future B6 destinations?

PTY
MDE
CLO
MAO
REC
FOR
(No GIG or VCP---served by AD)
MVD
EZE or AEP
VVI
SCL

The best thing is: if the plans don't work out? Well, they can be repurposed on the US and LatAm network.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 426
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:03 pm

TWA85 wrote:
dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


As others have already mentioned, B6 has relationships of varying degrees with airlines from all alliances which greatly negates the need to join an alliance. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising if they joined the AA-IAG Trans-Atlantic JV. Doing so could greatly help them obtain more LHR access and avoid competing head to head with AA-BA and DL-VS.

Would that even be allowed? The NEA specifically excluded TATL, or so I read, in order to survive DOT/DOJ scrutiny. I’m not sure that JV would be good for anyone.
 
TWA85
Posts: 365
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 10:06 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:04 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR


I agree. To expand on that, B6 could also fly secondary US-London routes like LHR-BDL, BWI, PIT, etc.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6194
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:24 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
TWA85 wrote:
dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


As others have already mentioned, B6 has relationships of varying degrees with airlines from all alliances which greatly negates the need to join an alliance. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising if they joined the AA-IAG Trans-Atlantic JV. Doing so could greatly help them obtain more LHR access and avoid competing head to head with AA-BA and DL-VS.

Would that even be allowed? The NEA specifically excluded TATL, or so I read, in order to survive DOT/DOJ scrutiny. I’m not sure that JV would be good for anyone.


I can't see any scenario where AA/IAG would allow B6 to join theirJV short of a merger. B6 would gain so much and IAG would get very little. Just take a look at how many routes EI will now try out of MAN. B6 would get full support to try all sort of JFK to secondary European market route with full access to AA/IAG ff.

The most logical alliance for B6 to join has always been *A. It's too bad UA did not make a similar offer for alliance with B6.

aemoreira1981 wrote:
If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR?


Exactly, B6 would be able to dominate the northeast to secondary British Isles market and a lot of western Europe with that type of arrangement. So, not going to happen.

Into Latin America, from FLL, once things dial down...future B6 destinations?

PTY
MDE
CLO
MAO
REC
FOR
(No GIG or VCP---served by AD)
MVD
EZE or AEP
VVI
SCL

The best thing is: if the plans don't work out? Well, they can be repurposed on the US and LatAm network.


They already fly to MDE. CLO and PTY are high on their list I would imagine. Beyond that, it really depends on where they are on their TATL flying. I can't see them not flying London. Even if performances are bad, they have to fly it. It will be no different than flying to DFW and ATL.

In the next couple of years, they need to focus on NYC buildup. Devoting too many A321 deliveries to Long haul stuff would limit the number of flights they can add out of NYC. They probably need to get up to 400 flights a day between the 3 NYC airport. It would need to be a lot of shorthaul high frequency stuff to hold slots. That leaves very little for FLL expansion.
 
IdlewildJFK
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:04 pm

TWA85 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR


I agree. To expand on that, B6 could also fly secondary US-London routes like LHR-BDL, BWI, PIT, etc.


JetBlue TATL flying only works where they have a large presence at the US city. Both a connecting network and a popular following among loyal customers and/or business clients. So if they ever add to BOS and JFK, it would maybe be EWR, but I’d bet their goal is more European cities not domestic cities for any future expansion.

BWI and PIT I just can’t see. I mean BWI isn’t even open right now for B6.
 
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:09 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
TWA85 wrote:
dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


As others have already mentioned, B6 has relationships of varying degrees with airlines from all alliances which greatly negates the need to join an alliance. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising if they joined the AA-IAG Trans-Atlantic JV. Doing so could greatly help them obtain more LHR access and avoid competing head to head with AA-BA and DL-VS.


If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR?

Into Latin America, from FLL, once things dial down...future B6 destinations?

PTY
MDE
CLO
MAO
REC
FOR
(No GIG or VCP---served by AD)
MVD
EZE or AEP
VVI
SCL

The best thing is: if the plans don't work out? Well, they can be repurposed on the US and LatAm network.


I think you are wrong on DUB. JFK and BOS to DUB would be very popular with JetBlue’s customers. In fact I have DUB as the next city they expand too. Maybe summers only to start but I think DUB is a given - but not till 2023 based on the delivery schedule for 21/22.

Edit - I see you were referring to a hypothetical JV deal. Though all the more reason why such a deal won’t happen.
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:54 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
TWA85 wrote:
dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?

If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR?


Offering JFK-HAM would be a great opportunity for JetBlue. This is a huge unserved market with 115.000 annual passengers in 2019. Also the share of Business travelers is pretty high, single problem is that the largest proportion of those high yielding frequent Business travelers in HAM is loyal to Star Alliance/Lufthansa. This is the challenge for an Airline offering a flight from Hamburg to the US, to steal a certain amount of high yield passengers from Lufthansa.

But I am sure that JetBlue is VERY high on the list of those Airlines being able to steal enough HAM frequent travelers from Lufthansa. Nonstop flight, amazingly good hard product and connections from JFK. If they are reliable, offer attractive departure times and the flight is yearround (very important in HAM!) I see no problem.

Back in 2005 Continental was able to establish a EWR-HAM flight as an Airline not very known in Germany, a SkyTeam (=non Star Alliance) member, operating an airplane that burned 30% more fuel than the A321 with passenger demand only half of 2019. So why would JetBlue not be sucessful? Of course that assumes that passengers numbers in Aviation can recover in the coming years. But they need to be quick: I am sure that United is eyeing HAM with their A321XLR.

I see Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt and maybe Düsseldorf in Germany.
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:17 pm

DLHAM wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
TWA85 wrote:
If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR?


Offering JFK-HAM would be a great opportunity for JetBlue. This is a huge unserved market with 115.000 annual passengers in 2019. Also the share of Business travelers is pretty high, single problem is that the largest proportion of those high yielding frequent Business travelers in HAM is loyal to Star Alliance/Lufthansa. This is the challenge for an Airline offering a flight from Hamburg to the US, to steal a certain amount of high yield passengers from Lufthansa.

But I am sure that JetBlue is VERY high on the list of those Airlines being able to steal enough HAM frequent travelers from Lufthansa. Nonstop flight, amazingly good hard product and connections from JFK. If they are reliable, offer attractive departure times and the flight is yearround (very important in HAM!) I see no problem.

Back in 2005 Continental was able to establish a EWR-HAM flight as an Airline not very known in Germany, a SkyTeam (=non Star Alliance) member, operating an airplane that burned 30% more fuel than the A321 with passenger demand only half of 2019. So why would JetBlue not be sucessful? Of course that assumes that passengers numbers in Aviation can recover in the coming years. But they need to be quick: I am sure that United is eyeing HAM with their A321XLR.

I see Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt and maybe Düsseldorf in Germany.


It's possible and the A321LR or XLR certainly have the economics to make something like that work, but I don't see BER, HAM, or DUS in the future for B6, at least in the short to medium term. These routes have traditionally not worked well, though admittedly with larger aircraft. No one seems to be able to make NYC-BER work but for UA, year round. The priority for B6 beyond London will likely be AMS, BRU, CDG (or ORY) and potentially MAD, BCN. I'd think B6's focus to build out TATL will be JFK/BOS to AMS, BRU, DUB, CDG, MAD, BCN at most.
 
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:22 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:


Offering JFK-HAM would be a great opportunity for JetBlue. This is a huge unserved market with 115.000 annual passengers in 2019. Also the share of Business travelers is pretty high, single problem is that the largest proportion of those high yielding frequent Business travelers in HAM is loyal to Star Alliance/Lufthansa. This is the challenge for an Airline offering a flight from Hamburg to the US, to steal a certain amount of high yield passengers from Lufthansa.

But I am sure that JetBlue is VERY high on the list of those Airlines being able to steal enough HAM frequent travelers from Lufthansa. Nonstop flight, amazingly good hard product and connections from JFK. If they are reliable, offer attractive departure times and the flight is yearround (very important in HAM!) I see no problem.

Back in 2005 Continental was able to establish a EWR-HAM flight as an Airline not very known in Germany, a SkyTeam (=non Star Alliance) member, operating an airplane that burned 30% more fuel than the A321 with passenger demand only half of 2019. So why would JetBlue not be sucessful? Of course that assumes that passengers numbers in Aviation can recover in the coming years. But they need to be quick: I am sure that United is eyeing HAM with their A321XLR.

I see Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt and maybe Düsseldorf in Germany.


It's possible and the A321LR or XLR certainly have the economics to make something like that work, but I don't see BER, HAM, or DUS in the future for B6, at least in the short to medium term. These routes have traditionally not worked well, though admittedly with larger aircraft. No one seems to be able to make NYC-BER work but for UA, year round. The priority for B6 beyond London will likely be AMS, BRU, CDG (or ORY) and potentially MAD, BCN. I'd think B6's focus to build out TATL will be JFK/BOS to AMS, BRU, DUB, CDG, MAD, BCN at most.


I am sure as well that JetBlue will start with "major" places like London, Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris, Madrid and Lisbon. Also because they are limited by the range of the A321LR places further than Amsterdam seem to be not possible with the LR with a decent load and without unplanned fuel stops in winter. But in a few years XLRs are coming and they can fly to Germany, Scandinavia, Italy, Southern France. By this time they maybe established their flights to the "big destinations" and are up for something new.

I think for an airline like JetBlue its better to concentrate on secondary markets with healthy demand, on routes like these they can charge a "premium" for offering THE nonstop connection and comfortable One-Stop connections to many, many places in the US. Just like Continental did sucessfully ...
Also its easier to steal some customers from the big alliances, offering a fast, convenient nonstop/one-stops is the biggest reason for Business travelers to switch. Offering the 7th daily flight from >add your favorite big Hub here< to New York there is no real advantage for a frequent flying status member to switch to that JetBlue flight and give up the status because he can have the nonstop on his Airline as well. And these Airlines will try to kill JetBlue by offering cheap fares on their nonstops.

So we have to wait for the XLR anyway, but as I said they need to be quick when the XLRs arrive: United and American have huge numbers of them coming in too.
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:58 am

DLHAM wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
DLHAM wrote:

Offering JFK-HAM would be a great opportunity for JetBlue. This is a huge unserved market with 115.000 annual passengers in 2019. Also the share of Business travelers is pretty high, single problem is that the largest proportion of those high yielding frequent Business travelers in HAM is loyal to Star Alliance/Lufthansa. This is the challenge for an Airline offering a flight from Hamburg to the US, to steal a certain amount of high yield passengers from Lufthansa.

But I am sure that JetBlue is VERY high on the list of those Airlines being able to steal enough HAM frequent travelers from Lufthansa. Nonstop flight, amazingly good hard product and connections from JFK. If they are reliable, offer attractive departure times and the flight is yearround (very important in HAM!) I see no problem.

Back in 2005 Continental was able to establish a EWR-HAM flight as an Airline not very known in Germany, a SkyTeam (=non Star Alliance) member, operating an airplane that burned 30% more fuel than the A321 with passenger demand only half of 2019. So why would JetBlue not be sucessful? Of course that assumes that passengers numbers in Aviation can recover in the coming years. But they need to be quick: I am sure that United is eyeing HAM with their A321XLR.

I see Berlin, Hamburg, Frankfurt and maybe Düsseldorf in Germany.


It's possible and the A321LR or XLR certainly have the economics to make something like that work, but I don't see BER, HAM, or DUS in the future for B6, at least in the short to medium term. These routes have traditionally not worked well, though admittedly with larger aircraft. No one seems to be able to make NYC-BER work but for UA, year round. The priority for B6 beyond London will likely be AMS, BRU, CDG (or ORY) and potentially MAD, BCN. I'd think B6's focus to build out TATL will be JFK/BOS to AMS, BRU, DUB, CDG, MAD, BCN at most.


I am sure as well that JetBlue will start with "major" places like London, Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris, Madrid and Lisbon. Also because they are limited by the range of the A321LR places further than Amsterdam seem to be not possible with the LR with a decent load and without unplanned fuel stops in winter. But in a few years XLRs are coming and they can fly to Germany, Scandinavia, Italy, Southern France. By this time they maybe established their flights to the "big destinations" and are up for something new.

I think for an airline like JetBlue its better to concentrate on secondary markets with healthy demand, on routes like these they can charge a "premium" for offering THE nonstop connection and comfortable One-Stop connections to many, many places in the US. Just like Continental did sucessfully ...
Also its easier to steal some customers from the big alliances, offering a fast, convenient nonstop/one-stops is the biggest reason for Business travelers to switch. Offering the 7th daily flight from >add your favorite big Hub here< to New York there is no real advantage for a frequent flying status member to switch to that JetBlue flight and give up the status because he can have the nonstop on his Airline as well. And these Airlines will try to kill JetBlue by offering cheap fares on their nonstops.

So we have to wait for the XLR anyway, but as I said they need to be quick when the XLRs arrive: United and American have huge numbers of them coming in too.


Doubt B6 will look to Lisbon as a destination unless tourism picks up post-COVID. They partner with TP already who covers the US-LIS market, and particularly NYC (EWR and JFK) + BOS quite well. It's true that CO opened up a lot of TATL markets that without the 757, would not have been able to sustain year-round operations on a wide body, but it was also a function of CO's relatively small and 767/777 fleet, which numbered 26 (767-200/400) and 21 (777-200ER). Yes, UA and AA have placed significant orders for the 321XLR and both airlines have suggested the type can open up more TATL markets where a twin aisle jet is too much plane. I suspect though that AA will focus its 321XLRs on Deep South America and to Europe from PHL and JFK, but likely not to secondary Germany. AA struggles with US-Germany and always has due to a weak POS originating in the German market. Absent a large corporate contract for JFK/PHL to a STR, HAM, DUS, I don't see them flying it. BER is a mostly a leisure market. I can see AA perhaps adding a FRA or MUC service out of JFK with the 321XLR (or returning to PHL-FRA/MUC with the plane) but more likely scenario would be AA adding BRU, ZRH out of JFK on it first. UA axed the EWR-HAM flight because it performed poorly (# of passengers and volume does not equate to profitability). The 757s struggled on HAM-EWR and TXL-EWR in the winter (I flew TXL-EWR a bunch of times on CO and had a diversion due to winds), which is why they had to upgauge to the 767-300ER and -400ER. It works for TXL. Didn't for HAM and given the industry's landscape right now, likely won't for some time. EK also flew JFK-HAM-DXB for a time, on the 77W and that too didn't work and was replaced with the JFK-MXP-DXB fifth freedom flight.
 
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:58 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:

It's possible and the A321LR or XLR certainly have the economics to make something like that work, but I don't see BER, HAM, or DUS in the future for B6, at least in the short to medium term. These routes have traditionally not worked well, though admittedly with larger aircraft. No one seems to be able to make NYC-BER work but for UA, year round. The priority for B6 beyond London will likely be AMS, BRU, CDG (or ORY) and potentially MAD, BCN. I'd think B6's focus to build out TATL will be JFK/BOS to AMS, BRU, DUB, CDG, MAD, BCN at most.


I am sure as well that JetBlue will start with "major" places like London, Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris, Madrid and Lisbon. Also because they are limited by the range of the A321LR places further than Amsterdam seem to be not possible with the LR with a decent load and without unplanned fuel stops in winter. But in a few years XLRs are coming and they can fly to Germany, Scandinavia, Italy, Southern France. By this time they maybe established their flights to the "big destinations" and are up for something new.

I think for an airline like JetBlue its better to concentrate on secondary markets with healthy demand, on routes like these they can charge a "premium" for offering THE nonstop connection and comfortable One-Stop connections to many, many places in the US. Just like Continental did sucessfully ...
Also its easier to steal some customers from the big alliances, offering a fast, convenient nonstop/one-stops is the biggest reason for Business travelers to switch. Offering the 7th daily flight from >add your favorite big Hub here< to New York there is no real advantage for a frequent flying status member to switch to that JetBlue flight and give up the status because he can have the nonstop on his Airline as well. And these Airlines will try to kill JetBlue by offering cheap fares on their nonstops.

So we have to wait for the XLR anyway, but as I said they need to be quick when the XLRs arrive: United and American have huge numbers of them coming in too.


Doubt B6 will look to Lisbon as a destination unless tourism picks up post-COVID. They partner with TP already who covers the US-LIS market, and particularly NYC (EWR and JFK) + BOS quite well. It's true that CO opened up a lot of TATL markets that without the 757, would not have been able to sustain year-round operations on a wide body, but it was also a function of CO's relatively small and 767/777 fleet, which numbered 26 (767-200/400) and 21 (777-200ER). Yes, UA and AA have placed significant orders for the 321XLR and both airlines have suggested the type can open up more TATL markets where a twin aisle jet is too much plane. I suspect though that AA will focus its 321XLRs on Deep South America and to Europe from PHL and JFK, but likely not to secondary Germany. AA struggles with US-Germany and always has due to a weak POS originating in the German market. Absent a large corporate contract for JFK/PHL to a STR, HAM, DUS, I don't see them flying it. BER is a mostly a leisure market. I can see AA perhaps adding a FRA or MUC service out of JFK with the 321XLR (or returning to PHL-FRA/MUC with the plane) but more likely scenario would be AA adding BRU, ZRH out of JFK on it first. UA axed the EWR-HAM flight because it performed poorly (# of passengers and volume does not equate to profitability). The 757s struggled on HAM-EWR and TXL-EWR in the winter (I flew TXL-EWR a bunch of times on CO and had a diversion due to winds), which is why they had to upgauge to the 767-300ER and -400ER. It works for TXL. Didn't for HAM and given the industry's landscape right now, likely won't for some time. EK also flew JFK-HAM-DXB for a time, on the 77W and that too didn't work and was replaced with the JFK-MXP-DXB fifth freedom flight.


Here's some 2018 data on BOS-Western Europe Traffic.
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/859c15_f ... 564d1b.pdf

Gives top 25 in traffic, yield, revenue, carrier etc. One caveat - COVID could have changed every single market listed. GVA is the highest yielding route from BOS in Western Europe but would it really be worth trying in 2022??? That is one that would need feed too since it is a small market but actually larger than BRU but that may be due to having up to three daily AMS flights and people taking a train to Brussels from Schiphol.

LON/PAR/DUB will be served for sure... maybe some routes become seasonal such as BCN.
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:30 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
UA axed the EWR-HAM flight because it performed poorly (# of passengers and volume does not equate to profitability). The 757s struggled on HAM-EWR and TXL-EWR in the winter (I flew TXL-EWR a bunch of times on CO and had a diversion due to winds), which is why they had to upgauge to the 767-300ER and -400ER. It works for TXL. Didn't for HAM and given the industry's landscape right now, likely won't for some time.


That United could not make HAM work at the end does not mean that NYC-HAM does not work in general. Continental had this route working very well for years, making money yearround with 5-6 weekly flights in a relatively short "winter schedule".
After the merger things started to decrease slowly, passenger numbers sank and the share of total traffic HAM-NYC and HAM-USA also decreased more and more, while the total numbers kept rising.
When they brought the 767s the flight became very unreliable (countless tech. delays and AOGs/cancellations, much worse than than the occasional 757 fuelstops in winter), frequent business passengers ran away and switched to fly via Frankfurt to have a reliable connection (+better product).
The last nail in the coffin was to switch to seasonal, which does not work in a business oriented market like HAM-NYC.
So the (Premium) demand is there, United was not able to attract enough of this segment.

ContinentalEWR wrote:
EK also flew JFK-HAM-DXB for a time, on the 77W and that too didn't work and was replaced with the JFK-MXP-DXB fifth freedom flight.


This was a whole different story, three problems with that flight:

1. Transit passengers harmed the very profitable DXB-HAM segment. There was only one daily flight back then and the Transit passengers limited availability even more. Also Cargo was a problem: Cargo that was left behind by the DXB-JFK nonstops due to unfavorable winds etc. was loaded onto the via-HAM flight, this led to lots of HAM bound Cargo left behind both to DXB and JFK. A second daily DXB-HAM was not possible due to aircraft shortage.

2. Continental Airlines. Many thought Emirates would kick Continental out of HAM, but Continental had way more attractive departure times, offered connections and were a SkyTeam member. Continental managed to attract most non-Star-Loyal frequent flyers even with a bad cabin product compared to Emirates Business and First Cabins.

3. Lufthansa and the German Ministry of Transportation. They refused any further negotiations with Emirates about landing rights in Berlin and Stuttgart as long as this HAM-NYC flight exists and put a lot of pressure on Emirates.

MXP-JFK started 5 years after HAM-JFK ended, so I do not think it got "replaced".

adamh8297 wrote:
Here's some 2018 data on BOS-Western Europe Traffic.
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/859c15_f ... 564d1b.pdf

Gives top 25 in traffic, yield, revenue, carrier etc.


Sure this is 2018? HAM had more passengers to/from both Boston and Chicago than both Berlin and Düsseldorf, why doesnt it show up?
Maybe the numbers are older, from times when the much missed airberlin still operated.
 
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:42 pm

DLHAM wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
UA axed the EWR-HAM flight because it performed poorly (# of passengers and volume does not equate to profitability). The 757s struggled on HAM-EWR and TXL-EWR in the winter (I flew TXL-EWR a bunch of times on CO and had a diversion due to winds), which is why they had to upgauge to the 767-300ER and -400ER. It works for TXL. Didn't for HAM and given the industry's landscape right now, likely won't for some time.


That United could not make HAM work at the end does not mean that NYC-HAM does not work in general. Continental had this route working very well for years, making money yearround with 5-6 weekly flights in a relatively short "winter schedule".
After the merger things started to decrease slowly, passenger numbers sank and the share of total traffic HAM-NYC and HAM-USA also decreased more and more, while the total numbers kept rising.
When they brought the 767s the flight became very unreliable (countless tech. delays and AOGs/cancellations, much worse than than the occasional 757 fuelstops in winter), frequent business passengers ran away and switched to fly via Frankfurt to have a reliable connection (+better product).
The last nail in the coffin was to switch to seasonal, which does not work in a business oriented market like HAM-NYC.
So the (Premium) demand is there, United was not able to attract enough of this segment.

ContinentalEWR wrote:
EK also flew JFK-HAM-DXB for a time, on the 77W and that too didn't work and was replaced with the JFK-MXP-DXB fifth freedom flight.


This was a whole different story, three problems with that flight:

1. Transit passengers harmed the very profitable DXB-HAM segment. There was only one daily flight back then and the Transit passengers limited availability even more. Also Cargo was a problem: Cargo that was left behind by the DXB-JFK nonstops due to unfavorable winds etc. was loaded onto the via-HAM flight, this led to lots of HAM bound Cargo left behind both to DXB and JFK. A second daily DXB-HAM was not possible due to aircraft shortage.

2. Continental Airlines. Many thought Emirates would kick Continental out of HAM, but Continental had way more attractive departure times, offered connections and were a SkyTeam member. Continental managed to attract most non-Star-Loyal frequent flyers even with a bad cabin product compared to Emirates Business and First Cabins.

3. Lufthansa and the German Ministry of Transportation. They refused any further negotiations with Emirates about landing rights in Berlin and Stuttgart as long as this HAM-NYC flight exists and put a lot of pressure on Emirates.

MXP-JFK started 5 years after HAM-JFK ended, so I do not think it got "replaced".

adamh8297 wrote:
Here's some 2018 data on BOS-Western Europe Traffic.
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/859c15_f ... 564d1b.pdf

Gives top 25 in traffic, yield, revenue, carrier etc.


Sure this is 2018? HAM had more passengers to/from both Boston and Chicago than both Berlin and Düsseldorf, why doesnt it show up?
Maybe the numbers are older, from times when the much missed airberlin still operated.


Hamburg is a major city and I get the need for it to be connected to the NY Area, but at the moment, TATL is essentially dead, and it will take a full year if not more for traffic to recover. It may not recover to pre-COVID levels at all as companies reassess the need to spend on T&E. I don't see any airline starting HAM except for maybe UA resuming it, and when they do, with the 321XLR. It's not likely a priority for B6 and AA/DL very likely have zero interest in it. UA's top brass have said the 321XLR is the plane that could make some routes work again that were dropped. That was before COVID though.
 
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:04 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
UA axed the EWR-HAM flight because it performed poorly (# of passengers and volume does not equate to profitability). The 757s struggled on HAM-EWR and TXL-EWR in the winter (I flew TXL-EWR a bunch of times on CO and had a diversion due to winds), which is why they had to upgauge to the 767-300ER and -400ER. It works for TXL. Didn't for HAM and given the industry's landscape right now, likely won't for some time.


That United could not make HAM work at the end does not mean that NYC-HAM does not work in general. Continental had this route working very well for years, making money yearround with 5-6 weekly flights in a relatively short "winter schedule".
After the merger things started to decrease slowly, passenger numbers sank and the share of total traffic HAM-NYC and HAM-USA also decreased more and more, while the total numbers kept rising.
When they brought the 767s the flight became very unreliable (countless tech. delays and AOGs/cancellations, much worse than than the occasional 757 fuelstops in winter), frequent business passengers ran away and switched to fly via Frankfurt to have a reliable connection (+better product).
The last nail in the coffin was to switch to seasonal, which does not work in a business oriented market like HAM-NYC.
So the (Premium) demand is there, United was not able to attract enough of this segment.

ContinentalEWR wrote:
EK also flew JFK-HAM-DXB for a time, on the 77W and that too didn't work and was replaced with the JFK-MXP-DXB fifth freedom flight.


This was a whole different story, three problems with that flight:

1. Transit passengers harmed the very profitable DXB-HAM segment. There was only one daily flight back then and the Transit passengers limited availability even more. Also Cargo was a problem: Cargo that was left behind by the DXB-JFK nonstops due to unfavorable winds etc. was loaded onto the via-HAM flight, this led to lots of HAM bound Cargo left behind both to DXB and JFK. A second daily DXB-HAM was not possible due to aircraft shortage.

2. Continental Airlines. Many thought Emirates would kick Continental out of HAM, but Continental had way more attractive departure times, offered connections and were a SkyTeam member. Continental managed to attract most non-Star-Loyal frequent flyers even with a bad cabin product compared to Emirates Business and First Cabins.

3. Lufthansa and the German Ministry of Transportation. They refused any further negotiations with Emirates about landing rights in Berlin and Stuttgart as long as this HAM-NYC flight exists and put a lot of pressure on Emirates.

MXP-JFK started 5 years after HAM-JFK ended, so I do not think it got "replaced".

adamh8297 wrote:
Here's some 2018 data on BOS-Western Europe Traffic.
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/859c15_f ... 564d1b.pdf

Gives top 25 in traffic, yield, revenue, carrier etc.


Sure this is 2018? HAM had more passengers to/from both Boston and Chicago than both Berlin and Düsseldorf, why doesnt it show up?
Maybe the numbers are older, from times when the much missed airberlin still operated.


Hamburg is a major city and I get the need for it to be connected to the NY Area, but at the moment, TATL is essentially dead, and it will take a full year if not more for traffic to recover. It may not recover to pre-COVID levels at all as companies reassess the need to spend on T&E. I don't see any airline starting HAM except for maybe UA resuming it, and when they do, with the 321XLR. It's not likely a priority for B6 and AA/DL very likely have zero interest in it. UA's top brass have said the 321XLR is the plane that could make some routes work again that were dropped. That was before COVID though.


Yeah thats true, we are hoping for the A321XLR. Of course with traffic numbers right now you can completely forget it. But in 3-4 years when the XLR comes online traffic has maybe recovered to like 2/3 of pre-COVID, that would be enough to start. I see many of the old Continental 757 destinations return + a few more.

I can see UA as most likely as well and Emirates, the more indendent from Alliances/JVs the better, thats why HAM likes JetBlue, and HAM and JetBlue have been in touch already. Nothing specific of course, the A321LR lacks range anyway.

I wish that JetBlue will be successful on the Atlantic, seems to be a great Airline with amazing product, hope I can fly with them one day. Watch out big US3!
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arfbool
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:02 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:33 am

More mystery website maintenance.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6194
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:20 am

Jetblue website is still down as of 7 am EST. I have no idea what kind of maintenance can take this long. Not sure if it's related to this

https://www.inforney.com/texas/jetblue- ... 2955f.html
 
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dabpit
Posts: 921
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 10:19 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:35 pm

tphuang wrote:
Jetblue website is still down as of 7 am EST. I have no idea what kind of maintenance can take this long. Not sure if it's related to this

https://www.inforney.com/texas/jetblue- ... 2955f.html

Yes, the website would need to be taken down for the implementation to be completed.
Carpe Diem
 
arfbool
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:02 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:44 pm

Why not update Sunday at 3am instead of weekday evenings when people would be using the website?
 
MGASJO
Posts: 357
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 9:37 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:28 pm

arfbool wrote:
Why not update Sunday at 3am instead of weekday evenings when people would be using the website?

Better to do it during office hours to keep everyone guessing


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Blueknows
Posts: 423
Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:31 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:52 am

Website issues are due to Sabre EMD cutover. This started Thursday at 3pm. It’s updated Sabre product, so now all bag weights have to be entered. B6 can sell tickets in lbs now.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 426
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:16 pm

Blueknows wrote:
Website issues are due to Sabre EMD cutover. This started Thursday at 3pm. It’s updated Sabre product, so now all bag weights have to be entered. B6 can sell tickets in lbs now.

At what point in the process are bag weights entered, and what do the EMDs have to do with it? And you’re talking about weights....then the next sentence you say “B6 can sell tickets in lbs now.” Are you suggesting B6 can sell tickets by the pound? Or are you referring to selling tickets in British pounds (GBP, not lbs)?
 
Capricorn
Posts: 193
Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:11 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:00 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
TWA85 wrote:
dca1 wrote:
What is the likelihood of JetBlue joining the Oneworld alliance?


As others have already mentioned, B6 has relationships of varying degrees with airlines from all alliances which greatly negates the need to join an alliance. That being said, it wouldn't be surprising if they joined the AA-IAG Trans-Atlantic JV. Doing so could greatly help them obtain more LHR access and avoid competing head to head with AA-BA and DL-VS.


If that were to happen, I could see B6 being default US-secondary UK. In any event, I could see these routes in addition to LHR in Europe:

UK: GLA, EDI (both seasonally), LBA and EMA seasonally for Christmas shopping trips? (Remember, the only planes LS has that can do the mission are between 24 and 34 years old.)
(Note: no MAN or Ireland - serviced by B6 partner EI, from B6 gates.)
France: ORY, NCE (NCE seasonal)
Germany: DUS, BER (BER seasonal)...HAM? STR?

Into Latin America, from FLL, once things dial down...future B6 destinations?

PTY
MDE
CLO
MAO
REC
FOR
(No GIG or VCP---served by AD)
MVD
EZE or AEP
VVI
SCL

The best thing is: if the plans don't work out? Well, they can be repurposed on the US and LatAm network.


But what is the real ambition of B6? Do they really want to become a "small version" legacy carrier or would they rather be the "boutique" airline they are know. I can't see them being interested in joining an alliance and a JV, but I also don't know how far reaching their TATL ambitions are. Do they plan to exclusively fly the "big markets" LHR, LGW, DUB, CDG, AMS or do they eventually plan to serve the likes of ZRH, MXP, FCO, BCN, BRU as well? As AV-Geek from the old continent B6 does remain kind of a mystery to me.
 
arfbool
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:02 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:32 pm

Is Mint in the works for Burbank? There's now a Mint column with "Not Offered" for flight offerings. There used to be no Mint column prior to the latest website revamp. Non-mint routes don't mention Mint at all, typically.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1761
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:22 pm

B6 pick up another gate at EWR or did they just use 15 for overflow? That would bring B6 up to 11.

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