alright, busy morning.
First of all, A220 made it's first scheduled revenue service yesterday on BOS-TPAhttp://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -220311494
TPG version of thishttps://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-a ... al-flight/
earnings report this morninghttp://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=74451
- Revenues were down 65%, 67%, 52% in Jan/Feb/March, overall down 61% for Q1 vs 2019. This is comparable to WN, whose revenue was down 60% and AS, whose revenue was down 57.5%.
- Just for March, WN was down 54% and AS was down 52%. So, JetBlue's revenue performance was as good as the 2 airlines by March. It had a steeper acceleration
- With this, it thinks Q2 revenue will be down 30 to 35%. WN has projected down 40 to 45% in April and then 35 to 40% in May. AS expects revenue to be down 32 to 37%. So, JetBlue is doing well in picking up revenues.
- It has problem on the cost side of things. It's only expected to be down 8% in operational expenses vs 2019 Q2. That seems pretty high to me. It attributes that to bringing all the aircraft back into service and all the required maintenance.
- Looks like PSP2 covered most of their losses from opex, capex and debt payments side of things
- Huge capex spend in Q2 of 2022 of $370 million, expects to take 2 A220s, 2 A321LDs and 2 A321LRs.
- Overall capex for 2021 expects to be $1 billion. I see 5 A220s and 1 A321LR deliveries for 2H of 2021.
- No order acceleration from what I can see. Still expecting 9 A220s and 3 A321LRs in 2022. No retirement planned from what I can see.
- Debt to cap only increased from 57% to 59% over Q1. I assume most of that is due to PSP
On the operating schedule side of things
- Q2 capacity to be down 15% vs 2019. From what I've gathered, it will be something like down 30% in April, 13% in May, 2% in June. As we discussed, huge ramp up. I think July/August right now is going to be at 2019 capacity level even after the latest cut. This is comparable to what WN is doing (down 24% in April, 18% in May and 4% in June). A lot more aggressive than AS, which is still expecting to be down 20% over this summer.
So from what I can see, they are doing pretty well from revenue side of things despite being heavily based in Northeast. I'm not sure we can expect more on that front. The cost side of things seems to be a little out of control. They are doing large capex spend for Q2, so I don't expect them to have positive earnings there. It seems like they are aiming for positive earnings by Q3.
I'm still waiting to see how they are going to add all this flights for summer of next year. They are only taking 12 aircraft for rest of this year and another 12 in 2022. Even if all the remaining parked ones come back, that still does not seem to provide enough lift.