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hbernal1
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:05 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
AS have practically abandoned LAX-South Florida and cut LAX-TPA, so B6 can add one more flight to FLL/MIA (if resources allow) and add LAX-TPA on its own metal in response (again, if resources allow).


AS has not cut LAXTPA. It's simply a seasonal service like most of their Florida-California flying has become for the moment.

Thanks for the clarification. That said, drawing down the route to just seasonal service doesn't change that transcon (especially to Florida) is/has been a weak spot for AS.
 
Wneast
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:37 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:05 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
The routes guy at MCI seems to think this could just be the beginning for JetBlue there. Hopeful local official or do you all think there is a real possibility more comes in future years once the new terminal opens?


LAX/FLL/MCO-MCI always a possibility in the future.

WN are pretty dominant on MCI routes, though so I'm unsure how these could work out for B6.

Someone said in one of these forums about B6 not getting into a WN turf war in there strong holds I don’t think it would go to well for them in MCI
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:31 pm

strangeplanes wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
The routes guy at MCI seems to think this could just be the beginning for JetBlue there. Hopeful local official or do you all think there is a real possibility more comes in future years once the new terminal opens?


LAX/FLL/MCO-MCI always a possibility in the future.

lots of talk about the "hole" in JetBlue's network that is the middle US. could be interesting to see a jetblue connecting operation at MCI in the future.


It's an interesting question. If you are JetBlue, you only have so much resource. Do you expand breadth or depth? Given their focus on NYC and BOS, I would think that expanding breadth would be the right thing to do in the near to medium future. I think AS got it right when they continue to build their network by connecting everything to SEA first rather than trying to add more hubs/focus cities to new markets. Similarly, I would think it makes sense for them to first focus on getting as many middle of the country destinations to JFK/BOS. There is no guarantee the NEA will last a long time. Partnership with AA gives them an easier path into new markets. Stuff like FLL-MCI/MKE/SAT or LAX-SAT probably won't happen in the next 2 years.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

EWR took a big hit too.


The business press has reported that JetBlue's growth at EWR has been costly and the operation is performing poorly in a number of markets, though others are showing strength.


Very interesting and concerning. Can you post?


I do feel like this has happened more than once. JetBlue make a routine cut, you get alarmed and then our friend here repeats the line that JetBlue is doing terribly at EWR.

EWR has consistently been one of their top stations throughout this pandemic based on T-100 data. If you want to see some terrible performances, take a look at the non-mint LAX stuff or the short haul stuff out of BOS/JFK. Those are actually verifiably terrible. They've only been operating flights that can at least cover the variable costs. EWR has been doing pretty well on that front.

JetBlue had no choice but cut more on their original summer schedule. They don't have enough resources to fly them. At EWR, they are still operating at least 60 flights a day on peak days in July. That's about what I was originally hoping for. With EWR putting pressure on B6 to slow down expansion due to runway work, it should surprise nobody that they did some cuts there. It should also surprise nobody if those Caribbean stuff gets further cuts. Nobody really knows exactly which countries will have their borders open in July. On the bright side, they've finally loaded in EWR-CTG starting in August at 3x weekly.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1919
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 10:49 pm

Thanks for the info, Tphaung!

What I’m most interested in for EWR is the stuff that they added like 2x EWR-SAN and 3x LAS has now but cut back to original levels? Did bookings spike that drop or was this simply a play to get people to book on JetBlue instead of other carriers who had more flight times? I’m also surprised EWR-ATL got pulled down to 2x daily, it goes out almost full all the time.

As for the Caribbean stuff, I think a lot of it should be reassessed. Basing off seat maps, places like EWR-STT/AUA/CUN could benefit from more capacity. I’m seeing prices in the couple of hundreds for a one way ticket on many dates.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:01 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

EWR took a big hit too.


The business press has reported that JetBlue's growth at EWR has been costly and the operation is performing poorly in a number of markets, though others are showing strength.


Very interesting and concerning. Can you post?


The article mentioned Florida and Caribbean markets were exceeding expectations but some of the transcons were problematic and that there would be a need to cut some routes out of EWR to put planes at LGA, BOS, and JFK.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6460
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Sun Apr 25, 2021 11:17 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Thanks for the info, Tphaung!

What I’m most interested in for EWR is the stuff that they added like 2x EWR-SAN and 3x LAS has now but cut back to original levels? Did bookings spike that drop or was this simply a play to get people to book on JetBlue instead of other carriers who had more flight times? I’m also surprised EWR-ATL got pulled down to 2x daily, it goes out almost full all the time.

As for the Caribbean stuff, I think a lot of it should be reassessed. Basing off seat maps, places like EWR-STT/AUA/CUN could benefit from more capacity. I’m seeing prices in the couple of hundreds for a one way ticket on many dates.


I still see EWR-LAS as 3x on peak days. EWR-SAN was only 2x on a couple of days before this cut.

I think we will hear more about their plans on Tuesday's earnings call. And I'm curious to see what this cut brings their capacity level to and what they intend to operate. Just doing a few searches, JFK saw a bunch of cuts too. This is an across the board cut.

I still think they have plans to make a couple of July/August additions to capture where the demand is. I guess we will find out.
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 6430
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:44 am

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Thanks for the info, Tphaung!

What I’m most interested in for EWR is the stuff that they added like 2x EWR-SAN and 3x LAS has now but cut back to original levels? Did bookings spike that drop or was this simply a play to get people to book on JetBlue instead of other carriers who had more flight times? I’m also surprised EWR-ATL got pulled down to 2x daily, it goes out almost full all the time.

As for the Caribbean stuff, I think a lot of it should be reassessed. Basing off seat maps, places like EWR-STT/AUA/CUN could benefit from more capacity. I’m seeing prices in the couple of hundreds for a one way ticket on many dates.


I still see EWR-LAS as 3x on peak days. EWR-SAN was only 2x on a couple of days before this cut.

I think we will hear more about their plans on Tuesday's earnings call. And I'm curious to see what this cut brings their capacity level to and what they intend to operate. Just doing a few searches, JFK saw a bunch of cuts too. This is an across the board cut.

I still think they have plans to make a couple of July/August additions to capture where the demand is. I guess we will find out.


You are spot on with the monthly Newark ritual.

For better or worse, EWR is here to stay as a station around 80 flights when all is said and done.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1919
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:59 am

tphuang wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Thanks for the info, Tphaung!

What I’m most interested in for EWR is the stuff that they added like 2x EWR-SAN and 3x LAS has now but cut back to original levels? Did bookings spike that drop or was this simply a play to get people to book on JetBlue instead of other carriers who had more flight times? I’m also surprised EWR-ATL got pulled down to 2x daily, it goes out almost full all the time.

As for the Caribbean stuff, I think a lot of it should be reassessed. Basing off seat maps, places like EWR-STT/AUA/CUN could benefit from more capacity. I’m seeing prices in the couple of hundreds for a one way ticket on many dates.


I still see EWR-LAS as 3x on peak days. EWR-SAN was only 2x on a couple of days before this cut.

I think we will hear more about their plans on Tuesday's earnings call. And I'm curious to see what this cut brings their capacity level to and what they intend to operate. Just doing a few searches, JFK saw a bunch of cuts too. This is an across the board cut.

I still think they have plans to make a couple of July/August additions to capture where the demand is. I guess we will find out.


If I’m looking at everything correctly, NYC is actually fairing the best still after the latest rounds of cuts. SoFlo actually took a big hit.
 
Abeam79
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:08 am

tphuang wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:

LAX/FLL/MCO-MCI always a possibility in the future.

lots of talk about the "hole" in JetBlue's network that is the middle US. could be interesting to see a jetblue connecting operation at MCI in the future.


It's an interesting question. If you are JetBlue, you only have so much resource. Do you expand breadth or depth? Given their focus on NYC and BOS, I would think that expanding breadth would be the right thing to do in the near to medium future. I think AS got it right when they continue to build their network by connecting everything to SEA first rather than trying to add more hubs/focus cities to new markets. Similarly, I would think it makes sense for them to first focus on getting as many middle of the country destinations to JFK/BOS. There is no guarantee the NEA will last a long time. Partnership with AA gives them an easier path into new markets. Stuff like FLL-MCI/MKE/SAT or LAX-SAT probably won't happen in the next 2 years.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:

The business press has reported that JetBlue's growth at EWR has been costly and the operation is performing poorly in a number of markets, though others are showing strength.


Very interesting and concerning. Can you post?


I do feel like this has happened more than once. JetBlue make a routine cut, you get alarmed and then our friend here repeats the line that JetBlue is doing terribly at EWR.

EWR has consistently been one of their top stations throughout this pandemic based on T-100 data. If you want to see some terrible performances, take a look at the non-mint LAX stuff or the short haul stuff out of BOS/JFK. Those are actually verifiably terrible. They've only been operating flights that can at least cover the variable costs. EWR has been doing pretty well on that front.

JetBlue had no choice but cut more on their original summer schedule. They don't have enough resources to fly them. At EWR, they are still operating at least 60 flights a day on peak days in July. That's about what I was originally hoping for. With EWR putting pressure on B6 to slow down expansion due to runway work, it should surprise nobody that they did some cuts there. It should also surprise nobody if those Caribbean stuff gets further cuts. Nobody really knows exactly which countries will have their borders open in July. On the bright side, they've finally loaded in EWR-CTG starting in August at 3x weekly.


I don't know where these 'reports of EWR being costly an d operation performing poorly" cause I have heard from a friend that works there that EWR has been doing very well relatively speaking. Who knows what metrics this "Business press" is looking at. Alot of them that report don't have a clue at airline revenue metrics.
This is a whole reset for the industry and B6 network on routes and and new cities. Things over time will settle. Airlines never ever launch a slew of new routes/cities for 100% income return right off the bat, the majority of them is future investments in their network as a whole.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:32 am

Abeam79 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
lots of talk about the "hole" in JetBlue's network that is the middle US. could be interesting to see a jetblue connecting operation at MCI in the future.


It's an interesting question. If you are JetBlue, you only have so much resource. Do you expand breadth or depth? Given their focus on NYC and BOS, I would think that expanding breadth would be the right thing to do in the near to medium future. I think AS got it right when they continue to build their network by connecting everything to SEA first rather than trying to add more hubs/focus cities to new markets. Similarly, I would think it makes sense for them to first focus on getting as many middle of the country destinations to JFK/BOS. There is no guarantee the NEA will last a long time. Partnership with AA gives them an easier path into new markets. Stuff like FLL-MCI/MKE/SAT or LAX-SAT probably won't happen in the next 2 years.

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Very interesting and concerning. Can you post?


I do feel like this has happened more than once. JetBlue make a routine cut, you get alarmed and then our friend here repeats the line that JetBlue is doing terribly at EWR.

EWR has consistently been one of their top stations throughout this pandemic based on T-100 data. If you want to see some terrible performances, take a look at the non-mint LAX stuff or the short haul stuff out of BOS/JFK. Those are actually verifiably terrible. They've only been operating flights that can at least cover the variable costs. EWR has been doing pretty well on that front.

JetBlue had no choice but cut more on their original summer schedule. They don't have enough resources to fly them. At EWR, they are still operating at least 60 flights a day on peak days in July. That's about what I was originally hoping for. With EWR putting pressure on B6 to slow down expansion due to runway work, it should surprise nobody that they did some cuts there. It should also surprise nobody if those Caribbean stuff gets further cuts. Nobody really knows exactly which countries will have their borders open in July. On the bright side, they've finally loaded in EWR-CTG starting in August at 3x weekly.


I don't know where these 'reports of EWR being costly an d operation performing poorly" cause I have heard from a friend that works there that EWR has been doing very well relatively speaking. Who knows what metrics this "Business press" is looking at. Alot of them that report don't have a clue at airline revenue metrics.
This is a whole reset for the industry and B6 network on routes and and new cities. Things over time will settle. Airlines never ever launch a slew of new routes/cities for 100% income return right off the bat, the majority of them is future investments in their network as a whole.


That's true and large scale investments like this usually have a long arc and B6 were right to take advantage of the opportunities in front of them at EWR when they did. I guess we will see the picture more clearly as the Q1 earnings are released this week.
 
hbernal1
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:39 pm

I agree with those who are pushing back on this idea that B6 are struggling at EWR. At this point, the question is how much do B6 expand at EWR rather than if they expand at all. The cuts are mostly to find ways to allocate limited resources for a busy summer flying season. Let's see what B6 have to say on tomorrow's earnings call. If bookings are putting them back in cash positive territory, then I'm of the opinion that there should be some plans to more quickly expand the fleet to capitalize on EWR expansion (and elsewhere).
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:23 pm

alright, busy morning.

First of all, A220 made it's first scheduled revenue service yesterday on BOS-TPA
http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -220311494

TPG version of this
https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-a ... al-flight/

earnings report this morning
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=74451
- Revenues were down 65%, 67%, 52% in Jan/Feb/March, overall down 61% for Q1 vs 2019. This is comparable to WN, whose revenue was down 60% and AS, whose revenue was down 57.5%.
- Just for March, WN was down 54% and AS was down 52%. So, JetBlue's revenue performance was as good as the 2 airlines by March. It had a steeper acceleration
- With this, it thinks Q2 revenue will be down 30 to 35%. WN has projected down 40 to 45% in April and then 35 to 40% in May. AS expects revenue to be down 32 to 37%. So, JetBlue is doing well in picking up revenues.
- It has problem on the cost side of things. It's only expected to be down 8% in operational expenses vs 2019 Q2. That seems pretty high to me. It attributes that to bringing all the aircraft back into service and all the required maintenance.
- Looks like PSP2 covered most of their losses from opex, capex and debt payments side of things
- Huge capex spend in Q2 of 2022 of $370 million, expects to take 2 A220s, 2 A321LDs and 2 A321LRs.
- Overall capex for 2021 expects to be $1 billion. I see 5 A220s and 1 A321LR deliveries for 2H of 2021.
- No order acceleration from what I can see. Still expecting 9 A220s and 3 A321LRs in 2022. No retirement planned from what I can see.
- Debt to cap only increased from 57% to 59% over Q1. I assume most of that is due to PSP

On the operating schedule side of things
- Q2 capacity to be down 15% vs 2019. From what I've gathered, it will be something like down 30% in April, 13% in May, 2% in June. As we discussed, huge ramp up. I think July/August right now is going to be at 2019 capacity level even after the latest cut. This is comparable to what WN is doing (down 24% in April, 18% in May and 4% in June). A lot more aggressive than AS, which is still expecting to be down 20% over this summer.

So from what I can see, they are doing pretty well from revenue side of things despite being heavily based in Northeast. I'm not sure we can expect more on that front. The cost side of things seems to be a little out of control. They are doing large capex spend for Q2, so I don't expect them to have positive earnings there. It seems like they are aiming for positive earnings by Q3.

I'm still waiting to see how they are going to add all this flights for summer of next year. They are only taking 12 aircraft for rest of this year and another 12 in 2022. Even if all the remaining parked ones come back, that still does not seem to provide enough lift.
 
stevemat11
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:08 pm

Anyone know what has happened with the B6 terminal expansion in JFK past gate 30 towards old T6 and into T7? I haven't heard anything about it. Construction was supposed to being Q2 2020.
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:40 pm

I haven't heard anything on when the terminal expansion will start. No mention of it on the earnings call either.

- rebound in leisure travel since medium Feb.
- broke even on cash from operation in March. Expect to break even in EBITDA for Q3.
- Will announce London soon, still feel good about TATL service and business cabins. No notable additional startup costs here.
- minimal capacity to Europe as a % of systemwide capacity over the next 2 years. Domestic vs International capacity going forward looking like historically (70:30?).
- Improved revenue initiatives in Fare Options 2.1 (with Blue basic) - optimistic about additional revenue from this
- improved loyalty platform with closing of co-brand RFP, looking to close gap with peers from this. For example, AS at $465 million and B6 at $220 million a year before. Want that gap to be closed.
- JetBlue travel products performing beyond 2019 level in past 2 months. Excited about Paisley. See improved margin here.
- Aiming to have lower casm-ex in 2022 vs 2019 from the $150 to $200 million structural cost savings implemented.
- expect to take first A321LR tomorrow
- booking curve back to pre-pandemic level.
- Q1 LF at 64%, mid 70s by end of Q1
- Latin/Caribbean demand rebounded quickly (top end of performance, capacity is up vs 2019 in July/August). Florida/Transcon demand did well.
- unit revenue for Q2 expected to improve, expecting at least mid 70s LF in Q2. Seeing double digit improvement in LF and yield.
- Had as high as $17 million booking on some days. (Pre-pandemic at $22 million per day)
- saw significant impact from increasing booking curve to 331 days
- schedule is now firm through June, may do additional adjustment for rest of summer
- only 10 aircraft to be stored through summer
- hiring to address improving demand
- Very excited about NEA and what it brings in NYC/Boston. Looking to make additional announcements in the future. Covers 66% of their system and is increasing.
- More loyalty announcements expected to come
- Still feel the need for perimeter rule at LGA even with additional flying planned there. Believe there needs to be divestiture if perimeter rule goes away
- Looking to get back to 30 to 40% debt cap ratio from 59% right now. Looking to pay down debt.
- Very happy with most of the new markets added, many will be lasting
- waiting for more Caribbean countries to open (like Bahamas recently)
 
hbernal1
Posts: 233
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:51 am

tphuang wrote:
I haven't heard anything on when the terminal expansion will start. No mention of it on the earnings call either.

- rebound in leisure travel since medium Feb.
- broke even on cash from operation in March. Expect to break even in EBITDA for Q3.
- Will announce London soon, still feel good about TATL service and business cabins. No notable additional startup costs here.
- minimal capacity to Europe as a % of systemwide capacity over the next 2 years. Domestic vs International capacity going forward looking like historically (70:30?).
- Improved revenue initiatives in Fare Options 2.1 (with Blue basic) - optimistic about additional revenue from this
- improved loyalty platform with closing of co-brand RFP, looking to close gap with peers from this. For example, AS at $465 million and B6 at $220 million a year before. Want that gap to be closed.
- JetBlue travel products performing beyond 2019 level in past 2 months. Excited about Paisley. See improved margin here.
- Aiming to have lower casm-ex in 2022 vs 2019 from the $150 to $200 million structural cost savings implemented.
- expect to take first A321LR tomorrow
- booking curve back to pre-pandemic level.
- Q1 LF at 64%, mid 70s by end of Q1
- Latin/Caribbean demand rebounded quickly (top end of performance, capacity is up vs 2019 in July/August). Florida/Transcon demand did well.
- unit revenue for Q2 expected to improve, expecting at least mid 70s LF in Q2. Seeing double digit improvement in LF and yield.
- Had as high as $17 million booking on some days. (Pre-pandemic at $22 million per day)
- saw significant impact from increasing booking curve to 331 days
- schedule is now firm through June, may do additional adjustment for rest of summer
- only 10 aircraft to be stored through summer
- hiring to address improving demand
- Very excited about NEA and what it brings in NYC/Boston. Looking to make additional announcements in the future. Covers 66% of their system and is increasing.
- More loyalty announcements expected to come
- Still feel the need for perimeter rule at LGA even with additional flying planned there. Believe there needs to be divestiture if perimeter rule goes away
- Looking to get back to 30 to 40% debt cap ratio from 59% right now. Looking to pay down debt.
- Very happy with most of the new markets added, many will be lasting
- waiting for more Caribbean countries to open (like Bahamas recently)

All around a very positive update from B6. I do think this likely means that demand will come back faster than a rate at which B6 can bring in more planes and staff, which is certainly a better problem than having no demand and nowhere to send your planes or staff. Breaking even on cash from ops in March is pretty significant if you ask me.
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:40 am

A few more items from today after i went through the earnings call transcript in text:
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-tran ... s-call-tr/
- They averaged $15 million per day in cash revenue by end of March and as high as $17 million per day at some stretches in April. For comparison, they did a little more than $22 million a day in revenue for Q4 of 2019.
- They are thinking 30 to 35% decline in revenue vs Q2 of 2019. But if they are going to earn $17 million per day in Q2, it will be more like 20 to 25% down. That would be huge and probably close to break even in EBITDA
- On corporate travel, they are still seeing bookings down 80% (not a surprise this is lower than national average, since northeast shorthaul business is dead). They think it will pick up more in the fall.
- A lot of optimism on revenue front. They think the co-branded RFP, NEA, 331 day booking and new fare options will all help drive RASM improvement. Thinking RASM will make a big recovery for 2022.
- On the cc front, if they can get revenue up from $200 to $300-400 million range (AS is at $465 million), that would be close to an extra $.5 million in revenue a day.
- Not really specific commentary on how much NEA is driving bookings for them. Surprised by this.
- Quite a few comments on JetBlue Travel Product
- System wide utilization for the fleet is lower than 2019 level. That means there is some upside to how much they can fly next year from the existing fleet + new deliveries if they can hire enough people.
- $1 billion capex in 2021
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:53 am

The 10 planes parked through summer are the same 10 Airbuses that need MX that they mentioned to staff last month.

I would like to know what the future holds there... because the deliveries do not allow for much expansion...especially with those 10 out.

All of their growth had come from BOS short haul being dead. But if they see that coming back in the fall, growth elsewhere could be an issue
 
phllax
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:18 am

jfklganyc wrote:
The 10 planes parked through summer are the same 10 Airbuses that need MX that they mentioned to staff last month.

I would like to know what the future holds there... because the deliveries do not allow for much expansion...especially with those 10 out.

All of their growth had come from BOS short haul being dead. But if they see that coming back in the fall, growth elsewhere could be an issue


What about those 4 ex-Thompson 321’s? Didn’t one go for paint 2-3 weeks ago?
 
trueblew
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:06 am

phllax wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The 10 planes parked through summer are the same 10 Airbuses that need MX that they mentioned to staff last month.

I would like to know what the future holds there... because the deliveries do not allow for much expansion...especially with those 10 out.

All of their growth had come from BOS short haul being dead. But if they see that coming back in the fall, growth elsewhere could be an issue


What about those 4 ex-Thompson 321’s? Didn’t one go for paint 2-3 weeks ago?


If I recall, that was N930JL which did go to paint. And it came out red, white and green.

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... bus/r1m2xo
 
Blerg
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:17 am

Makes me wonder, if they are going to be offering connections via JFK from LON, and when you add all the O&D, won't the A321 be kind of small?
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:50 am

I would imagine they should have no problem filling A321 from JFK. I also would think a couple of more within perimeter routes get added before launch of London help feed the flight.

I think the 4 ex-Thompson A321s are not going to be taken up. I would assume the 10 parked A320s come back at some point. Maybe by March/April of next year? Looks like they are trying to avoid that MX cost while they are still in the negative EBITA territory. They said they will be running at lower utilization than 2019. Which makes sense, since they have as many aircraft in service right now as end of 2019 (even with those 10 A320s not counted) and will take delivery on 6 more this quarter. From their presentation, they will have 23 more active aircraft by end of 2021 vs end of 2019. Assuming those 10 A320s aircraft come back + increasing utilization by next summer, I think they can add all those LGA flights + the 7 new cities they announced (most of which starts in Q2 2022) if they can hire enough enough crew members to support that operation.

Of course, all of this assumes we don't hit another snag in travel restriction and business travel comes back to at least 50% of pre-COVID level by early next year.

The problem to me seems to be 2022. They are only taking delivery of 9 A220s + 3 A321LRs. The LRs are not going to help them with domestic expansion. That would seem to limit their expansion opportunities from summer of 2022 to summer of 2023. It seems to me the wrong move to not accelerate some deliveries into 2022 or get some lease signed while we have a buyers market. Maybe they are waiting for some more good news on revenue front before they make such a commitment.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:44 pm

trueblew wrote:
phllax wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
The 10 planes parked through summer are the same 10 Airbuses that need MX that they mentioned to staff last month.

I would like to know what the future holds there... because the deliveries do not allow for much expansion...especially with those 10 out.

All of their growth had come from BOS short haul being dead. But if they see that coming back in the fall, growth elsewhere could be an issue


What about those 4 ex-Thompson 321’s? Didn’t one go for paint 2-3 weeks ago?


If I recall, that was N930JL which did go to paint. And it came out red, white and green.

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... bus/r1m2xo


We were told that they are not coming.

I have heard rumors otherwise, but as of now only rumors.

See Jetblue had the same problem before the pandemic as it does now… They just aren’t aggressive enough with their deliveries… They never were. After neeleman, They never took more than 10 or 15 planes a year.

If you really want to make inroads in several markets, that really isn’t enough.

The Thomas Cook planes were to provide extra lift for last summer. It was so rushed that they weren’t even going to be reconfigured in a Jetblue cabin.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:46 pm

tphuang wrote:
I would imagine they should have no problem filling A321 from JFK. I also would think a couple of more within perimeter routes get added before launch of London help feed the flight.

I think the 4 ex-Thompson A321s are not going to be taken up. I would assume the 10 parked A320s come back at some point. Maybe by March/April of next year? Looks like they are trying to avoid that MX cost while they are still in the negative EBITA territory. They said they will be running at lower utilization than 2019. Which makes sense, since they have as many aircraft in service right now as end of 2019 (even with those 10 A320s not counted) and will take delivery on 6 more this quarter. From their presentation, they will have 23 more active aircraft by end of 2021 vs end of 2019. Assuming those 10 A320s aircraft come back + increasing utilization by next summer, I think they can add all those LGA flights + the 7 new cities they announced (most of which starts in Q2 2022) if they can hire enough enough crew members to support that operation.

Of course, all of this assumes we don't hit another snag in travel restriction and business travel comes back to at least 50% of pre-COVID level by early next year.

The problem to me seems to be 2022. They are only taking delivery of 9 A220s + 3 A321LRs. The LRs are not going to help them with domestic expansion. That would seem to limit their expansion opportunities from summer of 2022 to summer of 2023. It seems to me the wrong move to not accelerate some deliveries into 2022 or get some lease signed while we have a buyers market. Maybe they are waiting for some more good news on revenue front before they make such a commitment.



I suspect they just won’t retire the 190s. Again, just a hunch
 
11C
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:46 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I would imagine they should have no problem filling A321 from JFK. I also would think a couple of more within perimeter routes get added before launch of London help feed the flight.

I think the 4 ex-Thompson A321s are not going to be taken up. I would assume the 10 parked A320s come back at some point. Maybe by March/April of next year? Looks like they are trying to avoid that MX cost while they are still in the negative EBITA territory. They said they will be running at lower utilization than 2019. Which makes sense, since they have as many aircraft in service right now as end of 2019 (even with those 10 A320s not counted) and will take delivery on 6 more this quarter. From their presentation, they will have 23 more active aircraft by end of 2021 vs end of 2019. Assuming those 10 A320s aircraft come back + increasing utilization by next summer, I think they can add all those LGA flights + the 7 new cities they announced (most of which starts in Q2 2022) if they can hire enough enough crew members to support that operation.

Of course, all of this assumes we don't hit another snag in travel restriction and business travel comes back to at least 50% of pre-COVID level by early next year.

The problem to me seems to be 2022. They are only taking delivery of 9 A220s + 3 A321LRs. The LRs are not going to help them with domestic expansion. That would seem to limit their expansion opportunities from summer of 2022 to summer of 2023. It seems to me the wrong move to not accelerate some deliveries into 2022 or get some lease signed while we have a buyers market. Maybe they are waiting for some more good news on revenue front before they make such a commitment.




I suspect they just won’t retire the 190s. Again, just a hunch


I agree, 190’s go when they can’t find a use for them, and they probably won’t be taking airframes at that (Neeleman) pace anytime soon.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 233
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:44 pm

tphuang wrote:
I would imagine they should have no problem filling A321 from JFK. I also would think a couple of more within perimeter routes get added before launch of London help feed the flight.

I think the 4 ex-Thompson A321s are not going to be taken up. I would assume the 10 parked A320s come back at some point. Maybe by March/April of next year? Looks like they are trying to avoid that MX cost while they are still in the negative EBITA territory. They said they will be running at lower utilization than 2019. Which makes sense, since they have as many aircraft in service right now as end of 2019 (even with those 10 A320s not counted) and will take delivery on 6 more this quarter. From their presentation, they will have 23 more active aircraft by end of 2021 vs end of 2019. Assuming those 10 A320s aircraft come back + increasing utilization by next summer, I think they can add all those LGA flights + the 7 new cities they announced (most of which starts in Q2 2022) if they can hire enough enough crew members to support that operation.

Of course, all of this assumes we don't hit another snag in travel restriction and business travel comes back to at least 50% of pre-COVID level by early next year.

The problem to me seems to be 2022. They are only taking delivery of 9 A220s + 3 A321LRs. The LRs are not going to help them with domestic expansion. That would seem to limit their expansion opportunities from summer of 2022 to summer of 2023. It seems to me the wrong move to not accelerate some deliveries into 2022 or get some lease signed while we have a buyers market. Maybe they are waiting for some more good news on revenue front before they make such a commitment.

Yep - they need more planes. B6 really should capitalize on their opportunities to diversify flying beyond NYC/BOS/Florida.
 
ryanrap1
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:00 pm

When will SAT flights go on sale?
 
Blerg
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:17 am

How many A220s do they have now? Is it just the one? How many are they supposed to get in the next couple of months?
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 517
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:51 am

Blerg wrote:
How many A220s do they have now? Is it just the one? How many are they supposed to get in the next couple of months?

I think they got their 2nd (N3023J) today, then 6 more planned throughout the rest of this year. Not sure of the timing of those.
 
Blerg
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:32 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
Blerg wrote:
How many A220s do they have now? Is it just the one? How many are they supposed to get in the next couple of months?

I think they got their 2nd (N3023J) today, then 6 more planned throughout the rest of this year. Not sure of the timing of those.


Interesting, thank you.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:13 am

Blerg wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Blerg wrote:
How many A220s do they have now? Is it just the one? How many are they supposed to get in the next couple of months?

I think they got their 2nd (N3023J) today, then 6 more planned throughout the rest of this year. Not sure of the timing of those.


Interesting, thank you.



The other issue is the 220 Pilot Base.

They decided to use the pre COVID plan and get these to Boston and only Boston.

Unfortunately, Boston isn’t where the growth is right now.

While a plane can be routed to or thru other large stations, you lose the ability to re crew as you have no reserves. Plus, with limited short haul flying between Boston and NY airports, you have a hard time deadheading crews if the you have a 220 that needs a crew in EWR or JFK.


Thus, the 220 will be relegated to turns out of BOS, which is probably not the best use of this aircraft at the moment
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:22 am

Looks like the 2nd A220 got delivered to VQQ yesterday. https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55104

Here is a trip report on the inaugural A220 https://paxex.aero/jetblue-a220-inaugural/. I see that this 2nd A220 is scheduled into service on June 10th. On May 6th, we should be getting 2 R/T of BOS-TPA on A220 every day.

I think the first A321LR will be delivered today. I would expect there to be a press release once it arrives. They love doing continued press releases with no announcement of the airport or starting date.
 
MGASJO
Posts: 358
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 9:37 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:09 pm

tphuang wrote:

I think the first A321LR will be delivered today. I would expect there to be a press release once it arrives. They love doing continued press releases with no announcement of the airport or starting date.


Yes. It’s on its way from Hamburg to JFK. N4022J


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Endless Reserve
 
CobaltScar
Posts: 831
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:22 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Blerg wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
I think they got their 2nd (N3023J) today, then 6 more planned throughout the rest of this year. Not sure of the timing of those.


Interesting, thank you.



The other issue is the 220 Pilot Base.

They decided to use the pre COVID plan and get these to Boston and only Boston.

Unfortunately, Boston isn’t where the growth is right now.

While a plane can be routed to or thru other large stations, you lose the ability to re crew as you have no reserves. Plus, with limited short haul flying between Boston and NY airports, you have a hard time deadheading crews if the you have a 220 that needs a crew in EWR or JFK.


Thus, the 220 will be relegated to turns out of BOS, which is probably not the best use of this aircraft at the moment


Long thin turns about the best use for it. They still have plenty of E190s for the short stuff.
 
catiii
Posts: 3887
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:56 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
trueblew wrote:
phllax wrote:

What about those 4 ex-Thompson 321’s? Didn’t one go for paint 2-3 weeks ago?


If I recall, that was N930JL which did go to paint. And it came out red, white and green.

https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... bus/r1m2xo


We were told that they are not coming.

I have heard rumors otherwise, but as of now only rumors.

See Jetblue had the same problem before the pandemic as it does now… They just aren’t aggressive enough with their deliveries… They never were. After neeleman, They never took more than 10 or 15 planes a year.

If you really want to make inroads in several markets, that really isn’t enough.

The Thomas Cook planes were to provide extra lift for last summer. It was so rushed that they weren’t even going to be reconfigured in a Jetblue cabin.


Correct, lift for last summer when we didn't have a pandemic. In fact the first one came to the US around March 1 2020.
 
catiii
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:11 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Blerg wrote:

Interesting, thank you.



The other issue is the 220 Pilot Base.

They decided to use the pre COVID plan and get these to Boston and only Boston.

Unfortunately, Boston isn’t where the growth is right now.

While a plane can be routed to or thru other large stations, you lose the ability to re crew as you have no reserves. Plus, with limited short haul flying between Boston and NY airports, you have a hard time deadheading crews if the you have a 220 that needs a crew in EWR or JFK.


Thus, the 220 will be relegated to turns out of BOS, which is probably not the best use of this aircraft at the moment


Long thin turns about the best use for it. They still have plenty of E190s for the short stuff.


And for the amount coming this year there is no urgency to open another base or re-base.
 
JBcapecott
Posts: 147
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:45 pm

When will E190's retire?

This article says: "In addition to these 13 new A321LRs, the airline also has on order another 57 Airbus aircraft comprising other A321neo variants – which will also feature Airspace cabins." (https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/jetb ... -interior/) What 57 more are they talking about... we have only 42 more non-LR NEO's to be delivered.

Why doesn't the LD have the full Airspace interior?
 
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Polot
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:00 pm

JBcapecott wrote:
When will E190's retire?

This article says: "In addition to these 13 new A321LRs, the airline also has on order another 57 Airbus aircraft comprising other A321neo variants – which will also feature Airspace cabins." (https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/jetb ... -interior/) What 57 more are they talking about... we have only 42 more non-LR NEO's to be delivered.

They are likely using the latest numbers available from Airbus from March, when B6 only had 16 deliveries versus 85 total orders including what has been delivered, and forgot to subtract out the A321LR delivery and any other B6 A321neo delivery in April. 85-16 already delivered-12 A321LRs = 57 A321s that are not LR (they never said the balance they talked about did not include XLR).
 
catiii
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:30 pm

The LR has arrived at JFK and is parked at the terminal now.
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:48 pm

The official JetBlue news release on the first LR
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=74540

lol at JetBlue calling itself a true global carrier.

Some article on how airspace looks on A321LR. May this is only offered on LR? or maybe it costs more to install this vs standard A321NEO cabin?
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/wow ... r-jetblue/

As for E90, I'm guessing at this point there will be no retirement before 2023. Otherwise, they simply can't meet growth target in NYC/Boston. Even starting from 2023, retirement will be slower than planned. Maybe 30 E90s will still be around after 2025 and get slowly retired toward end of this decade? Just a guess. The E90s on average are newer than the A320s. There are a few A320s they don't intend to refurbish. Those probably won't last very long.
Last edited by tphuang on Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Polot
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:54 pm

tphuang wrote:

Some article on how airspace looks on A321LR. May this is only offered on LR? or maybe it costs more to install this vs standard A321NEO cabin?
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/wow ... r-jetblue/

Looks great, can’t wait to see it in person/in photos where the lens isn’t distorting the image to make the cabin look wider to somewhat hilarious effect (ie the little girl and her luggage in the 2nd photo).
 
catiii
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:54 pm

tphuang wrote:

lol at JetBlue calling itself a true global carrier.



The full quote: “The delivery of our new A321LR sets the stage for a new era at JetBlue in which we now have an aircraft allowing us to stretch our wings and become a true global carrier offering flights beyond the Americas for the first time ever,” said Robin Hayes, chief executive officer, JetBlue.

Context and words matter. It didn't say JetBlue is a true global carrier. It said the airplane allows them to grow and become a true global carrier. It's a distinct difference.
 
JBcapecott
Posts: 147
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:00 pm

tphuang wrote:

As for E90, I'm guessing at this point there will be no retirement before 2023. Otherwise, they simply can't meet growth target in NYC/Boston. Even starting from 2023, retirement will be slower than planned. Maybe 30 E90s will still be around after 2025 and get slowly retired toward end of this decade? Just a guess. The E90s on average are newer than the A320s. There are a few A320s they don't intend to refurbish. Those probably won't last very long.


Maybe they could get more A220... I was thinking 60 223, 40 221, and 20 225... maybe they could make a 225 LD with a "Mint Lite" cabin with the B/E MIQ. Could they still have 120 220 in total despite Covid?
 
tphuang
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:06 pm

I'm sure over the lifetime, they will take up more than 70 orders, especially if 220-500 gets launched. After all, the A320s will need to be replaced and they don't appear to be interested in taking any A320NEO.

btw, another trip report on A220 https://samchui.com/2021/04/29/trip-rep ... Ir1lC-z3FN
Again, quite glowing. Can't wait to try it out when it comes to NYC.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 233
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
I'm sure over the lifetime, they will take up more than 70 orders, especially if 220-500 gets launched. After all, the A320s will need to be replaced and they don't appear to be interested in taking any A320NEO.

btw, another trip report on A220 https://samchui.com/2021/04/29/trip-rep ... Ir1lC-z3FN
Again, quite glowing. Can't wait to try it out when it comes to NYC.

I also see the added benefit that when B6 replace the 190s and order A225s to replace A320s (if Airbus launches the A225), B6 will have a fleet of just A220 and A321. I'm also of the opinion that JetBlue will take more than just 70 A220s. I believe they can still take on 60 more options if they want to, although I don't remember the exact terms of the order.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6430
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:47 pm

tphuang wrote:
The official JetBlue news release on the first LR
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=74540

lol at JetBlue calling itself a true global carrier.

Some article on how airspace looks on A321LR. May this is only offered on LR? or maybe it costs more to install this vs standard A321NEO cabin?
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/wow ... r-jetblue/

As for E90, I'm guessing at this point there will be no retirement before 2023. Otherwise, they simply can't meet growth target in NYC/Boston. Even starting from 2023, retirement will be slower than planned. Maybe 30 E90s will still be around after 2025 and get slowly retired toward end of this decade? Just a guess. The E90s on average are newer than the A320s. There are a few A320s they don't intend to refurbish. Those probably won't last very long.



Why isnt there a bulkhead wall in front?

Who wants to sit in J an look at a FA working in a galley?

Makes no sense. The light, the noise, the view. No good
 
JBcapecott
Posts: 147
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:13 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:51 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
tphuang wrote:
The official JetBlue news release on the first LR
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=74540

lol at JetBlue calling itself a true global carrier.

Some article on how airspace looks on A321LR. May this is only offered on LR? or maybe it costs more to install this vs standard A321NEO cabin?
https://www.airlineratings.com/news/wow ... r-jetblue/

As for E90, I'm guessing at this point there will be no retirement before 2023. Otherwise, they simply can't meet growth target in NYC/Boston. Even starting from 2023, retirement will be slower than planned. Maybe 30 E90s will still be around after 2025 and get slowly retired toward end of this decade? Just a guess. The E90s on average are newer than the A320s. There are a few A320s they don't intend to refurbish. Those probably won't last very long.



Why isnt there a bulkhead wall in front?

Who wants to sit in J an look at a FA working in a galley?

Makes no sense. The light, the noise, the view. No good

Just because B6 is using Airspace doesn't mean it would be like those pictures... there will actually be separations (galley between 1R and J and 2nd front lav between 1L and J) This video gives you a good understanding of the LR, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEUU5TMzYZ0. Looking at the photo you saw, maybe it would help with claustrophobia without that wall so close, but I get your point.
 
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lesfalls
Posts: 3532
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:02 am

B6 is hiring for a supervisory position in France. The state it is allocated in is not in Paris nor Lyon (closer to Lyon though).

JetBlue Airways: Supervisor Airport and Ground Operations
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/2492618013
Lufthansa: Einfach ein bisschen besser.
 
DELTA777
Posts: 681
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2000 6:34 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:14 am

lesfalls wrote:
B6 is hiring for a supervisory position in France. The state it is allocated in is not in Paris nor Lyon (closer to Lyon though).

JetBlue Airways: Supervisor Airport and Ground Operations
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/2492618013


It appears that is a Airports/Ground Operations Supervisor position in Guyana based on the JetBlue Career page.
 
UkiAir
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 1:59 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:59 am

lesfalls wrote:
B6 is hiring for a supervisory position in France. The state it is allocated in is not in Paris nor Lyon (closer to Lyon though).

JetBlue Airways: Supervisor Airport and Ground Operations
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/2492618013


GY as in Guayana.
 
catiii
Posts: 3887
Joined: Mon Mar 31, 2008 1:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:38 pm

jfklganyc wrote:


Why isnt there a bulkhead wall in front?

Who wants to sit in J an look at a FA working in a galley?

Makes no sense. The light, the noise, the view. No good


There is a bulkhead wall.

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