Taking a look at sizes of various stations in late September after this large cut.
JFK - 151 - I see AUS/RDU both at 3x daily, would be equal to the highs on both of these routes. ATL is down to 2x again. Short haul frequencies are still really down. BOS/BUF only at 3x. ROC/BTV/SYR/ORD are all 1x. Same with DFW/DTW/MSP/BNA/MSY. Looks like just low demand to these places. Transcon demand is better. I see 2x A321s on BUR + 4x weekly to ONT/SJC/SMF (both ONT/SJC on A321). 8 LAX, 4x SFO, 2x LAS/SEA/SAN (both LAS/SEA only have 1 mint flight). GEO/GYE are daily. GUA/LIR 5x weekly, SJO/ANU/BOG 4x weekly, Boi/BZN/FCA are gone after labour day. HYA/MVY/ACK/PWM all extended to end of October on summer level of frequencies (surprised to see that), PSP 4x weekly starting in mid October.
EWR - 62 - BOS only 1x, MVY/AKC sitll operational until Oct. SEA 4x weekly, 4x LAX, 2x SFO, SAN/LAS not on mint again
LGA - 14 - 2x BOS/DEN/FLL/MCO/ACK, 1x CHS/TPA/PBI/MVY
HPN - 10
Overall, the NYC stations in September see about the same # of flights as summer time. Normally, there is a big drop off in sep/oct, so this is good to see. More importantly, they are running about as many flights out of JFK/LGA/HPN as they did in 2019 at this point. EWR is up a lot. Most of the reductions are the short stuff.
BOS - 112 - I see FLL 5x (3 A220), TPA 3x (2 A220), RSW 4x (1 A220), BNA 2x (A220+E90), MCO 5x (A220+4 A321), AUS 2x(1 A220), LGA 2x (A220+E90). 10 A220 R/T. My guess is that they need 4 A220 to run that schedule.Aside from that, LAX 4x, SFO 5x, SAN/LAS 3x (2 mint), SEA 2x (1 mint), no BWI/BUR. ORD still only at 1 A320 + 1 E90. MSP/IAH both at 1 E90. ATL at 3 E90.
Once they get more comfortable with A220s, I really think they need to change their approach here. There is no reason to deploy them this much too Florida, when MSP/IAH/ORD/ATL are much tougher markets that are quite uneconomical for E90.
FLL - 74 - BUF/PIT/RIC gone, LAX 3x, SFO 2x. Looks like they are just not focusing here even considering Sep/Oct being slow season
LAX - 37 - BUF/CHS/MCO/RIC 4x weekly, BDL 6x weekly, JAX/RDU 5x weekluy, SJO 3x weekly, SEA gone. In general, about the same as summer schedule.
MCO - 44 - about same as summer. Again, they seem to put minimum effort here
RDU - 15 - AUS/RSW/JAX/SFO/TPA gone - I do think RSW/TPA are likely to come back in the winter time.
SFO - 18 - AUs gone, MCO 3x weekly, BDL 4x weekly
BDL - 13
SJU - 34
It seems to me they are running about the same number of flights in late September like they did in July. JFK might not be seeing an increase in the number of flights vs 2019, but a lot of the short haul stuff are heavily reduced and replaced by long VFR routes on A321. So, their capacity is up quite a bit. It does seem to me they will have quite a bit of spare capacity to add if they can find places to deploy their aircraft. For example, they are only scheduling in 44 mint R/T at the moment. That's fewer than summer time, despite receiving more A321LD. Either EWR-SAN/LAS gets mint flights again or they will add new mint routes or they will be more idle. I do expect more routes to be added to NYC for late summer and early Fall. It looks like Florida is getting less attention. Also, LAX is getting more love than I would've expected.