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dtremit
Posts: 169
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 1:08 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:42 pm

tphuang wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:
Does Mosaic really need an overhaul now? One could argue that if B6 can get people to fly it metal and have them redeem AA miles instead (as that’s a better FF program) which those pax could then turn around and use on AA, B6 or another OW airline, that it’s actually better for B6 as they still get the revenue but carry less of the liability. It’s AA that will likely have to deal with the opposite where people choose to fly B6 where possible but choose to earn/burn AA miles.


Mosaic needs an overhaul because it simply does not match with the elite status structure of AA. It would need that type of structure to properly have reciprocal elite upgrade benefits/privileges. It's a process JetBlue needs to take as it behaves more and more like a legacy airlines. Also JetBlue shouldn't give away all its ff to AA. After all, no ones knows for sure if this partnership will last. Even aside from that, ff program really adds to the value of the airline.


Worth adding to this that compared to AA/DL/UA/AS frequent flyer programs, Mosaic has seen a lot more devaluation this year. One of the biggest differentiators historically has been waived change fees for Mosaics — but those are now available to everyone. And Mosaics lost deep discounts on EMS upgrades in favor of a day-of-departure benefit that's less generous than what other airlines give their base tier.

I say this as a Mosaic seriously considering shifting my earn to AA (though I would still prefer flying B6 whenever possible).
 
phllax
Posts: 685
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 6:53 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
updates from the past week. B6 did some trimming for Sep/Oct.

I see additional flights on JFK/BOS-MSY in October along with BOS-SAV. LAX-OBI also saw a lot of reductions.


October is prime tourist season and weather in MSY, so the adds make sense. Same for SAV.

As for PBI, the cuts in the fall make sense. I wouldn't be surprised if sub-daily remains for most of the year.
 
AC4500
Posts: 660
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
updates from the past week. B6 did some trimming for Sep/Oct.

Out of BOS, I see slight reductions to LAS/PDX/SJC.

PDX and SJC are summer-oriented markets, so the reduction makes sense here. I don't believe they've flew daily on BOS-PDX in Sep/Oct. The LAS cut seems a bit odd though.

BOS-PDX is supposed to become a year-round route now, we'll see if that ever plays out.
Next:
UA: PDX-EWR-DCA
WN: BWI-STL-PDX
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6417
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:28 pm

tphuang wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I think JetBlue's willingness to continue to fly out of ORH shows how much more favors they need from MassPort. It'd be great terminal C is full upgraded. Note here, DL and AA not looking to restart ORH. https://www.telegram.com/story/news/202 ... 532647002/

The 3rd A321LD just got delivered today. That is it for A321LD for a while.
https://aibfamily.flights/A320/10254

Not really sure if this mean anything, but Airbus and B6 has a flight hour services contract for A220
https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/p ... a220-fleet

a little blurb here from SAT on B6 starting service in October
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/ ... rease.html

Still no announcement on when that will be exactly. The last 2 announcements were 2 month apart. Following that pattern, I expect another route announcement in second half of this month with SAT start date and some other route announcements.

What else will they announce? After announcing BOI/FCA/SAT/SAP/PVR/MCI/MKE/YVR/AVL/LHR/LGW since start of the year, I don't think they will announce any new stations for a while. My guess is they will give starting date to following routes.
JFK/BOS-SAT
JFK-SAP/PVR
LGA-JAX/SRQ/SAV/MSY

Other routes that I think they might announce on their next announcement from NYC/Boston that would be part of NEA
JFK-BDL/PVD/ALB/CLE/PIT/CLT
LGA-RDU/RIC
EWR-BNA/ORD
BOS-ABQ

Elsewhere in the network, I think a few of the following could make sense:
BDL-AUS/RDU
DCA-CHS/RDU
LAX-CLE/PIT/PVR
FLL-MCI/MKE/SAP/SAT
SJU-AUS/MIA
SFO-SJD

However, my guess is non-NEA route announcements probably won't come until 2022. I think there's a few more EWR routes that B6 can add to NEA like EWR-BNA/MSY/SLC. All in all, 2021 isn't too bad of a year for B6 so far. B6 definitely need to be getting more A321LDs faster - especially if there are any plans to expand Mint routes (JFK-LAX/SFO should probably be the flagship A321LD routes, with one or two doing a turn on BOS-LAX).


Yes, there are quite a few routes that make sense for them, but things will be very focused on JFK/LGA over the next 12 months as they try to ramp up operations to utilize additional slots. They will need another 6 A321LD just to cover JFK-LAX. I don't see it making regular appearance on any other routes for a while. And then, maybe they will have enough mint aircraft to cover all the new mint routes they've added. 3 A321LD isn't enough to cover EWR-LAX/SFO/SAN/LAS + LAX-MIA/PBI. They've had to put all-core aircraft on JFK/BOS-SFO this summer.

BOS is actually going to get quite a bit of upgrades through all the A220-300 that will come aboard this year and next. I anticipate quite a large portion of BOS business markets (between 700 to 1700 mile in stage length) will be on A220 by this point next year. With corporate demand coming back a little quicker now, I'm seeing a quicker path to BOS recovery than I did 2 months ago. I see them recovering to about 150 flight a day a year from now. And then, it will be interesting to see how they deploy A220s after their most obvious markets are all converted.

I actually would be happy if they take 1 or 2 fewer A220s in 2022 if that meant they could get 2 or 3 more A321LDs.

Things I like to see on the west coast prior to 2023
More flights on LAX-SFO to at least match AA/WN schedule
More leisure flights out of LAX to LAS + Mexico
A couple of new leisure routes out of SFO like LAS, PSP and SJD
It's easier to see them gaining local market in west coast by offering leisure flights vs trying to compete on business markets.



Corporate demand isnt coming back at all…yet.

B6 just cut BOS to LGA for Sept.

Really says it all
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 501
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:05 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
nycflyer99 wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
It is a regular NEO. The A321NEO LD (low density) are the mint NEOs. The third one just got delivered. You can see the recent and near term future deliveries here https://www.planespotters.net/airline/JetBlue-Airways

N2102J, N2105J, and recently N2142J are the NEO LDs B6 has taken delivery of. That’s supposed to be it for this year for the mint NEOs.

N4022J is the LR that has been delivered. N4048J is the next LR to be delivered according to that site, and it should be soon.


Are you sure 2102J is a LD NEO? It’s in the balloons tail not ribbons, although I’m not sure if JetBlue is standardizing the ribbons tail for the LD NEOs.


What’s your source for it having balloons tail? The tracker and this FT thread say otherwise. https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/jetblue ... ead-7.html

I’ll verify shortly elsewhere but pretty certain it’s only LDs/LRs being delivered these days as far as 321s go.


Sounds like it’s only gonna be 2 LDs this year and next, so what you say checks. What a disappointMint. Also sounds like no chance of the order book getting revised to accelerate deliveries, at least as of now. Although apparently Hawaii with mint NEO is being looked at possibly for 2022. The delivery schedule doesn’t support that, so I doubt that happens. 2023 seems more likely as the earliest that happens.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6433
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Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 10:10 pm

With the AA partnership and AS cuts around Bay Area, here is my thoughts on why a SFO focus city makes sense for JetBlue.

The first part is to show that AA has a decent sized ff base in the Bay Area by looking at SFO/SJC local market share.  It's important to note that while UA does dominate SFO, it's dominance does not extend across the Bay Area as a whole.  So there are a lot of ff who are free agents or OneWorld ff that B6 would appeal to.

SJC market share
AA 10 to 15% 2019, 20% at end of 2020
AS about 25% 2019, 10 to 15% at end of 2020

SFO market share
UA 65% 2019, 50% at end of 2020
AA 10% 2019, 20 to 25% at end of 2020
AS 10 to15% 2019, about 7% at end of 2020
WN and B6 both about 2 to 3% in 2019 and end of 2020

Here, we see a huge decline in AS's SFO market share from over 15% in early 2018 to 7% by the end of 2020.  This decline is more noticeable if we examine how much airlines are operating out of SFO during the summer month.  You will see that B6 has grown quite a bit since 2020.  It's local market share should be a bit higher now.  Here are the number of flights operated by B6/AA/AS/WN on July 19th
B6 22 mainline
AA 29 mainline 5 RJ
AS 16 mainline 41 RJ (really heavily regional, even LAS just 3 RJs, PSP just 2 RJs)
WN 20 mainline

The first surprising thing here is that B6 will be operating more flights than WN.  Who could've guessed that?  Aside from that, AA is only operating 7 more mainline flights than B6 and those flights are on average at shorter stage length.  The most surprising one is AS.  They've really cut SFO into a RJ hub with the downsizing of their airbus fleet.  Aside from transcon, Hawaii and Mexico, they only have mainline flights to SEA/PDX.  Based on some rough calculation, those 57 AS flights actually have less ASM than B6's 22 flights.  That would've been unthinkable even a year ago.

The other interesting part is to look at gate allocation.  When B6 and WN moved into the first 9 gates at the new Harvey Milk terminal, B6 only had access to 2 gates + a shared gate with WN.  The fact that B6 will now have more flights than WN just shows how both airlines have moved in opposite directions.  AA got 6 gates + 3 CUTE gates on its side of boarding area B to run just 34 flights.  I don't see either WN or AA adding a lot more flights.  On top of that, 7 more gates just got added recently with no obvious airlines targeted.  https://airport-world.com/seven-new-gat ... erminal-1/  On a recent look at SFO departures, I saw them using 4 gates by themselves in that terminal.  There are still quite a few unused gates in that terminal that they can expand to.

The other important part is how B6 can grow.  How can it grab a larger portion of the local market?  I think AS has moved away from the old VX strategy after failing to attract the old VX crowd.  That's how they went from 15 to 20% market share in 2017 to 7% just 3 years later.  There is very little ULCC competition at SFO or even in the Bay Area.  VX served a niche back in 2016 when it had a strategy of serving top transcon and leisure markets along with obligatory service to large west coast airports.  I think there is an obvious hole in SFO for a leisure carrier with a solid product (that VX used to occupy).  That's a group turned off by UA and AS with no obvious alternatives to turn to.  B6's path to growth at SFO would be with that crowd + AA ff + unaligned customers.  To capture AA ff, they should target non-AA hubs where AS is showing weakness.  That would point to a strategy of serving popular leisure markets.

The obvious markets for them to add would be LAS, PSP, SJD and PVR.  Over the next 2 years, they can add a couple of them along with additional services to its focus cities.  That would get them to close to 30 flights a day.  Once they are ready to add to the west coast and start service to Hawaii, they can add HNL and OGG along with a couple of more leisure markets + other west coast markets like SNA, SAN and SLC.

B6 has somehow found itself to be tied for the 2nd largest carrier in SFO (by ASM) by simply adding a few new routes and restoring capacity while other airlines have been busy cutting things.  It's struggling to be the 5th largest carrier in LAX despite starting many new markets.  Even if B6 builds an operation of 70 to 75 flights a day at LAX, it would be battling with AS and WN as the 4th largest carrier by ASM.  From 2023 onward, focusing on both LAX and SFO will probably give them the best chance of having a sustainable west coast strategy and a national network. Just like what VX did in the early 2010s, I'm hoping B6 can capitalize on SFO having less competition than usual.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 232
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:24 am

tphuang wrote:
With the AA partnership and AS cuts around Bay Area, here is my thoughts on why a SFO focus city makes sense for JetBlue.

The first part is to show that AA has a decent sized ff base in the Bay Area by looking at SFO/SJC local market share.  It's important to note that while UA does dominate SFO, it's dominance does not extend across the Bay Area as a whole.  So there are a lot of ff who are free agents or OneWorld ff that B6 would appeal to.

SJC market share
AA 10 to 15% 2019, 20% at end of 2020
AS about 25% 2019, 10 to 15% at end of 2020

SFO market share
UA 65% 2019, 50% at end of 2020
AA 10% 2019, 20 to 25% at end of 2020
AS 10 to15% 2019, about 7% at end of 2020
WN and B6 both about 2 to 3% in 2019 and end of 2020

Here, we see a huge decline in AS's SFO market share from over 15% in early 2018 to 7% by the end of 2020.  This decline is more noticeable if we examine how much airlines are operating out of SFO during the summer month.  You will see that B6 has grown quite a bit since 2020.  It's local market share should be a bit higher now.  Here are the number of flights operated by B6/AA/AS/WN on July 19th
B6 22 mainline
AA 29 mainline 5 RJ
AS 16 mainline 41 RJ (really heavily regional, even LAS just 3 RJs, PSP just 2 RJs)
WN 20 mainline

The first surprising thing here is that B6 will be operating more flights than WN.  Who could've guessed that?  Aside from that, AA is only operating 7 more mainline flights than B6 and those flights are on average at shorter stage length.  The most surprising one is AS.  They've really cut SFO into a RJ hub with the downsizing of their airbus fleet.  Aside from transcon, Hawaii and Mexico, they only have mainline flights to SEA/PDX.  Based on some rough calculation, those 57 AS flights actually have less ASM than B6's 22 flights.  That would've been unthinkable even a year ago.

The other interesting part is to look at gate allocation.  When B6 and WN moved into the first 9 gates at the new Harvey Milk terminal, B6 only had access to 2 gates + a shared gate with WN.  The fact that B6 will now have more flights than WN just shows how both airlines have moved in opposite directions.  AA got 6 gates + 3 CUTE gates on its side of boarding area B to run just 34 flights.  I don't see either WN or AA adding a lot more flights.  On top of that, 7 more gates just got added recently with no obvious airlines targeted.  https://airport-world.com/seven-new-gat ... erminal-1/  On a recent look at SFO departures, I saw them using 4 gates by themselves in that terminal.  There are still quite a few unused gates in that terminal that they can expand to.

The other important part is how B6 can grow.  How can it grab a larger portion of the local market?  I think AS has moved away from the old VX strategy after failing to attract the old VX crowd.  That's how they went from 15 to 20% market share in 2017 to 7% just 3 years later.  There is very little ULCC competition at SFO or even in the Bay Area.  VX served a niche back in 2016 when it had a strategy of serving top transcon and leisure markets along with obligatory service to large west coast airports.  I think there is an obvious hole in SFO for a leisure carrier with a solid product (that VX used to occupy).  That's a group turned off by UA and AS with no obvious alternatives to turn to.  B6's path to growth at SFO would be with that crowd + AA ff + unaligned customers.  To capture AA ff, they should target non-AA hubs where AS is showing weakness.  That would point to a strategy of serving popular leisure markets.

The obvious markets for them to add would be LAS, PSP, SJD and PVR.  Over the next 2 years, they can add a couple of them along with additional services to its focus cities.  That would get them to close to 30 flights a day.  Once they are ready to add to the west coast and start service to Hawaii, they can add HNL and OGG along with a couple of more leisure markets + other west coast markets like SNA, SAN and SLC.

B6 has somehow found itself to be tied for the 2nd largest carrier in SFO (by ASM) by simply adding a few new routes and restoring capacity while other airlines have been busy cutting things.  It's struggling to be the 5th largest carrier in LAX despite starting many new markets.  Even if B6 builds an operation of 70 to 75 flights a day at LAX, it would be battling with AS and WN as the 4th largest carrier by ASM.  From 2023 onward, focusing on both LAX and SFO will probably give them the best chance of having a sustainable west coast strategy and a national network. Just like what VX did in the early 2010s, I'm hoping B6 can capitalize on SFO having less competition than usual.

I couldn't have said this any better myself. SFO makes a lot of sense for a new focus city if B6 are looking towards being relevant on the west coast long term. Having LAX, a brutally competitive market with loads of airlines competing for traffic to places like Albuquerque and Omaha, as the sole west coast "hub" won't make too much sense - plenty of LA-area ff but B6 could be drowned out with all the competition at LAX. The next few years is as good a time as any to take advantage and take the plunge at SFO, while the real estate is available.

As for some other stuff JetBlue can try from SFO, I think seasonal ANC/JAC could also work with as well as MTJ seasonal winter flights. Adding MIA/YVR could also work. But I think JetBlue should think of a path to get to a 50-60 flight operation at SFO: the real estate is there.

I think it would be wise for B6 to have some more deliveries coming in, especially for more Mint aircraft (I'm on board with the idea of less A220 deliveries if B6 can get some A321LD deliveries in 2022). Some Mint routes I can think of off the top of my head that would make sense for B6 to add is stuff like LAX/SFO-IAD and LAX-PHL. SFO-MIA would also be a good addition on Mint.
 
RCS763AV
Posts: 3875
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2004 1:22 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:29 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
FARmd90 wrote:

JFK-BOG-JFK looks to be starting on Feb. 11 operating on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday’s with A320 equipment.

JFK-BOG; 16:20 departure with a 22:10 arrival
BOG-JFK; 23:35 departure with a 5:28 next day arrival

Honestly surprised they didn’t make this a NEO route.


Why are all these "northern" south american flights such late arrivals -_-


It makes great sense for aircraft and slot utilization...and IINM, the return is when there are no slot restrictions but when FIS opens at T5i. B6's operation is based on red-eyes as a substantial part of it, and this also saves money on not having RON operations. (Remember that GYE operates with a similar arrival time and quick departure, spending only just over an hour on the ground, and from FLL, UIO is served around midnight.) This is also why B6 has, relative to aircraft age, the highest time planes in the world.

That said, I'm surprised it isn't on the A321neo, which would have less of a payload hit than the A320. This also is why B6 should consider the 35,000-lb thrust PW1100 series engine (which is designed for hot and high). I didn't even know that the A320 could do BOG-JFK (the A20N can). Normally, it would be the A319, A20N, B752, or a wide-body because BOG is 8400 feet AMSL (this is also why in Ecuador, B6 serves JFK-GYE and not JFK-UIO, but rather FLL-UIO, because UIO is 7900 feet AMSL while GYE is near sea level). Also in the future, what are the odds of CTG being re-timed to also being closer to a 9 PM arrival at CTG? After all, CTG would seem to be more of a VFR route rather than to being a tourism hotspot.

I do wonder how the A220-300 would perform on JFK-BOG in terms of performance. I know that BOS is slated to get the model first, but this would make for a good W route---BOS-JFK-BOG-JFK-BOS.


You got it wrong with CTG, it is far from a VFR market. It has very small local demand to New York. It's 90% american tourists visiting the city. New tourism hotspot on the caribbean actually.

Speaking of BOG and UIO, at midnight you should have no problem with the "hot" component taking off from these airports as temperatures go down to 6-7 celsius (~45 F). However, BOG is at least 400 miles closer to JFK than UIO is. I would guess BOG-JFK is pushing the A320s limits regarding range, and UIO-JFK may already face restrictions which make the flight unprofitable. I'm actually taking BOG-JFK next June 26, so I'll be sure to tell the forum if the flght has some kind of restriction or operational issue!
 
Abeam79
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:45 am

RCS763AV wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:

Why are all these "northern" south american flights such late arrivals -_-


It makes great sense for aircraft and slot utilization...and IINM, the return is when there are no slot restrictions but when FIS opens at T5i. B6's operation is based on red-eyes as a substantial part of it, and this also saves money on not having RON operations. (Remember that GYE operates with a similar arrival time and quick departure, spending only just over an hour on the ground, and from FLL, UIO is served around midnight.) This is also why B6 has, relative to aircraft age, the highest time planes in the world.

That said, I'm surprised it isn't on the A321neo, which would have less of a payload hit than the A320. This also is why B6 should consider the 35,000-lb thrust PW1100 series engine (which is designed for hot and high). I didn't even know that the A320 could do BOG-JFK (the A20N can). Normally, it would be the A319, A20N, B752, or a wide-body because BOG is 8400 feet AMSL (this is also why in Ecuador, B6 serves JFK-GYE and not JFK-UIO, but rather FLL-UIO, because UIO is 7900 feet AMSL while GYE is near sea level). Also in the future, what are the odds of CTG being re-timed to also being closer to a 9 PM arrival at CTG? After all, CTG would seem to be more of a VFR route rather than to being a tourism hotspot.

I do wonder how the A220-300 would perform on JFK-BOG in terms of performance. I know that BOS is slated to get the model first, but this would make for a good W route---BOS-JFK-BOG-JFK-BOS.


You got it wrong with CTG, it is far from a VFR market. It has very small local demand to New York. It's 90% american tourists visiting the city. New tourism hotspot on the caribbean actually.

Speaking of BOG and UIO, at midnight you should have no problem with the "hot" component taking off from these airports as temperatures go down to 6-7 celsius (~45 F). However, BOG is at least 400 miles closer to JFK than UIO is. I would guess BOG-JFK is pushing the A320s limits regarding range, and UIO-JFK may already face restrictions which make the flight unprofitable. I'm actually taking BOG-JFK next June 26, so I'll be sure to tell the forum if the flight has some kind of restriction or operational issue!


From what I understand there aren't any restrictions on the JFK-BOG flight but I heard the flight back is capped only at 90 seats or so sold on the A320. I was at JFK waiting for my flight and I asked the pilot why they don't fly the NEO to BOG. He actually said the A321NEO is too heavy to get the performance. He also mentioned jetblue company was waiting for the neo but at the time it was when they had A320neo's on order and still didn't convert to the A321. HE also mentioned that its possible the A220 may eventually be on the route.
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:48 am

tphuang wrote:
With the AA partnership and AS cuts around Bay Area, here is my thoughts on why a SFO focus city makes sense for JetBlue.

The first part is to show that AA has a decent sized ff base in the Bay Area by looking at SFO/SJC local market share.  It's important to note that while UA does dominate SFO, it's dominance does not extend across the Bay Area as a whole.  So there are a lot of ff who are free agents or OneWorld ff that B6 would appeal to.

SJC market share
AA 10 to 15% 2019, 20% at end of 2020
AS about 25% 2019, 10 to 15% at end of 2020

SFO market share
UA 65% 2019, 50% at end of 2020
AA 10% 2019, 20 to 25% at end of 2020
AS 10 to15% 2019, about 7% at end of 2020
WN and B6 both about 2 to 3% in 2019 and end of 2020

Here, we see a huge decline in AS's SFO market share from over 15% in early 2018 to 7% by the end of 2020.  This decline is more noticeable if we examine how much airlines are operating out of SFO during the summer month.  You will see that B6 has grown quite a bit since 2020.  It's local market share should be a bit higher now.  Here are the number of flights operated by B6/AA/AS/WN on July 19th
B6 22 mainline
AA 29 mainline 5 RJ
AS 16 mainline 41 RJ (really heavily regional, even LAS just 3 RJs, PSP just 2 RJs)
WN 20 mainline

The first surprising thing here is that B6 will be operating more flights than WN.  Who could've guessed that?  Aside from that, AA is only operating 7 more mainline flights than B6 and those flights are on average at shorter stage length.  The most surprising one is AS.  They've really cut SFO into a RJ hub with the downsizing of their airbus fleet.  Aside from transcon, Hawaii and Mexico, they only have mainline flights to SEA/PDX.  Based on some rough calculation, those 57 AS flights actually have less ASM than B6's 22 flights.  That would've been unthinkable even a year ago.

The other interesting part is to look at gate allocation.  When B6 and WN moved into the first 9 gates at the new Harvey Milk terminal, B6 only had access to 2 gates + a shared gate with WN.  The fact that B6 will now have more flights than WN just shows how both airlines have moved in opposite directions.  AA got 6 gates + 3 CUTE gates on its side of boarding area B to run just 34 flights.  I don't see either WN or AA adding a lot more flights.  On top of that, 7 more gates just got added recently with no obvious airlines targeted.  https://airport-world.com/seven-new-gat ... erminal-1/  On a recent look at SFO departures, I saw them using 4 gates by themselves in that terminal.  There are still quite a few unused gates in that terminal that they can expand to.

The other important part is how B6 can grow.  How can it grab a larger portion of the local market?  I think AS has moved away from the old VX strategy after failing to attract the old VX crowd.  That's how they went from 15 to 20% market share in 2017 to 7% just 3 years later.  There is very little ULCC competition at SFO or even in the Bay Area.  VX served a niche back in 2016 when it had a strategy of serving top transcon and leisure markets along with obligatory service to large west coast airports.  I think there is an obvious hole in SFO for a leisure carrier with a solid product (that VX used to occupy).  That's a group turned off by UA and AS with no obvious alternatives to turn to.  B6's path to growth at SFO would be with that crowd + AA ff + unaligned customers.  To capture AA ff, they should target non-AA hubs where AS is showing weakness.  That would point to a strategy of serving popular leisure markets.

The obvious markets for them to add would be LAS, PSP, SJD and PVR.  Over the next 2 years, they can add a couple of them along with additional services to its focus cities.  That would get them to close to 30 flights a day.  Once they are ready to add to the west coast and start service to Hawaii, they can add HNL and OGG along with a couple of more leisure markets + other west coast markets like SNA, SAN and SLC.

B6 has somehow found itself to be tied for the 2nd largest carrier in SFO (by ASM) by simply adding a few new routes and restoring capacity while other airlines have been busy cutting things.  It's struggling to be the 5th largest carrier in LAX despite starting many new markets.  Even if B6 builds an operation of 70 to 75 flights a day at LAX, it would be battling with AS and WN as the 4th largest carrier by ASM.  From 2023 onward, focusing on both LAX and SFO will probably give them the best chance of having a sustainable west coast strategy and a national network. Just like what VX did in the early 2010s, I'm hoping B6 can capitalize on SFO having less competition than usual.

Really appreciate this analysis and very much agree. As AS fades, B6 is the natural carrier to step in. The only thing now is whether management will continue to be enchanted by visions of a B6-dominated LAX, or settle for a less "glorious" yet more realistic SFO operation. Obvious holes of un(der)served markets include Hawaii (little competition for UA) and LatAm, as well as skinny transcons. LatAm, I feel, is the true dark horse when you take into account opportunities beyond CUN, which was started late 2020. SJO, LIR, BOG, GUA, BZE, SJD, PVR, and SAL all come to mind.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26607
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:31 am

sfojvjets wrote:
tphuang wrote:
With the AA partnership and AS cuts around Bay Area, here is my thoughts on why a SFO focus city makes sense for JetBlue.

The first part is to show that AA has a decent sized ff base in the Bay Area by looking at SFO/SJC local market share.  It's important to note that while UA does dominate SFO, it's dominance does not extend across the Bay Area as a whole.  So there are a lot of ff who are free agents or OneWorld ff that B6 would appeal to.

SJC market share
AA 10 to 15% 2019, 20% at end of 2020
AS about 25% 2019, 10 to 15% at end of 2020

SFO market share
UA 65% 2019, 50% at end of 2020
AA 10% 2019, 20 to 25% at end of 2020
AS 10 to15% 2019, about 7% at end of 2020
WN and B6 both about 2 to 3% in 2019 and end of 2020

Here, we see a huge decline in AS's SFO market share from over 15% in early 2018 to 7% by the end of 2020.  This decline is more noticeable if we examine how much airlines are operating out of SFO during the summer month.  You will see that B6 has grown quite a bit since 2020.  It's local market share should be a bit higher now.  Here are the number of flights operated by B6/AA/AS/WN on July 19th
B6 22 mainline
AA 29 mainline 5 RJ
AS 16 mainline 41 RJ (really heavily regional, even LAS just 3 RJs, PSP just 2 RJs)
WN 20 mainline

The first surprising thing here is that B6 will be operating more flights than WN.  Who could've guessed that?  Aside from that, AA is only operating 7 more mainline flights than B6 and those flights are on average at shorter stage length.  The most surprising one is AS.  They've really cut SFO into a RJ hub with the downsizing of their airbus fleet.  Aside from transcon, Hawaii and Mexico, they only have mainline flights to SEA/PDX.  Based on some rough calculation, those 57 AS flights actually have less ASM than B6's 22 flights.  That would've been unthinkable even a year ago.

The other interesting part is to look at gate allocation.  When B6 and WN moved into the first 9 gates at the new Harvey Milk terminal, B6 only had access to 2 gates + a shared gate with WN.  The fact that B6 will now have more flights than WN just shows how both airlines have moved in opposite directions.  AA got 6 gates + 3 CUTE gates on its side of boarding area B to run just 34 flights.  I don't see either WN or AA adding a lot more flights.  On top of that, 7 more gates just got added recently with no obvious airlines targeted.  https://airport-world.com/seven-new-gat ... erminal-1/  On a recent look at SFO departures, I saw them using 4 gates by themselves in that terminal.  There are still quite a few unused gates in that terminal that they can expand to.

The other important part is how B6 can grow.  How can it grab a larger portion of the local market?  I think AS has moved away from the old VX strategy after failing to attract the old VX crowd.  That's how they went from 15 to 20% market share in 2017 to 7% just 3 years later.  There is very little ULCC competition at SFO or even in the Bay Area.  VX served a niche back in 2016 when it had a strategy of serving top transcon and leisure markets along with obligatory service to large west coast airports.  I think there is an obvious hole in SFO for a leisure carrier with a solid product (that VX used to occupy).  That's a group turned off by UA and AS with no obvious alternatives to turn to.  B6's path to growth at SFO would be with that crowd + AA ff + unaligned customers.  To capture AA ff, they should target non-AA hubs where AS is showing weakness.  That would point to a strategy of serving popular leisure markets.

The obvious markets for them to add would be LAS, PSP, SJD and PVR.  Over the next 2 years, they can add a couple of them along with additional services to its focus cities.  That would get them to close to 30 flights a day.  Once they are ready to add to the west coast and start service to Hawaii, they can add HNL and OGG along with a couple of more leisure markets + other west coast markets like SNA, SAN and SLC.

B6 has somehow found itself to be tied for the 2nd largest carrier in SFO (by ASM) by simply adding a few new routes and restoring capacity while other airlines have been busy cutting things.  It's struggling to be the 5th largest carrier in LAX despite starting many new markets.  Even if B6 builds an operation of 70 to 75 flights a day at LAX, it would be battling with AS and WN as the 4th largest carrier by ASM.  From 2023 onward, focusing on both LAX and SFO will probably give them the best chance of having a sustainable west coast strategy and a national network. Just like what VX did in the early 2010s, I'm hoping B6 can capitalize on SFO having less competition than usual.

Really appreciate this analysis and very much agree. As AS fades, B6 is the natural carrier to step in. The only thing now is whether management will continue to be enchanted by visions of a B6-dominated LAX, or settle for a less "glorious" yet more realistic SFO operation. Obvious holes of un(der)served markets include Hawaii (little competition for UA) and LatAm, as well as skinny transcons. LatAm, I feel, is the true dark horse when you take into account opportunities beyond CUN, which was started late 2020. SJO, LIR, BOG, GUA, BZE, SJD, PVR, and SAL all come to mind.


AS isn’t fading at SFO. SF is a very tough market right now with demand significantly weaker than other areas that have picked up, and AS (and others) are acting appropriately.

And SFOBOG? United will be flying supersonic jets before that ever happens. Those routes are not opportunities for B6, it’s a way to light money on fire.
a.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6433
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:25 pm

http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec ... 3&Type=PDF
This did not improve as much as I thought it would. Estimated Q2 revenue to be down 30 to 33% vs previous estimation of 30 to 35%. Still a tough market.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-jetblue-promo/
continued effort by AA for its members to fly both AA and B6.

jfklganyc wrote:
Corporate demand isnt coming back at all…yet.

B6 just cut BOS to LGA for Sept.

Really says it all


yeah, that does say a lot. Not sure how they get to 15x on this route next year if it's gone for sep/oct.

JoseSalazar wrote:
Sounds like it’s only gonna be 2 LDs this year and next, so what you say checks. What a disappointMint. Also sounds like no chance of the order book getting revised to accelerate deliveries, at least as of now. Although apparently Hawaii with mint NEO is being looked at possibly for 2022. The delivery schedule doesn’t support that, so I doubt that happens. 2023 seems more likely as the earliest that happens.


If that's the case, then they continue to be a source of giant disappointment. After all the marketing/hype they've put in mint 2.0, they are not actually delivering the product. I'm not sure why they need more 200 seaters. Even 2 or 3 LDs next year would be a great boost to their reputation. They need to decide if they are just looking to compete with ULCCs or trying to chase high yield customers.

sfojvjets wrote:
Really appreciate this analysis and very much agree. As AS fades, B6 is the natural carrier to step in. The only thing now is whether management will continue to be enchanted by visions of a B6-dominated LAX, or settle for a less "glorious" yet more realistic SFO operation. Obvious holes of un(der)served markets include Hawaii (little competition for UA) and LatAm, as well as skinny transcons. LatAm, I feel, is the true dark horse when you take into account opportunities beyond CUN, which was started late 2020. SJO, LIR, BOG, GUA, BZE, SJD, PVR, and SAL all come to mind.


Well, I think they had the goal of 2 west coast focus cities when they were bidding for VX. Due to their long history in LA area with LGB, LAX was the more natural place for them to build up. When they struck the deal with LAX last year, the current competitive landscape in LAX vs SFO was not known. Now, we see LAX remains the most fragmented airport int he country. In comparison, SFO looks to be under-served for the next few years. It really surprised me how much AS has shrunk at SFO. Even if it takes several years for SFO to recover to 2019 size, SFO is still an incredibly important market. It's a much larger market than SEA, which continues to get too much capacity.

If they were to grow naturally at SFO through more flights to focus cities, they can probably get to low 30s in the number of flights by the end of 2025. A focus city would probably get them to close to 50 flights a day by that time. Can they find enough resources to fund an extra 15 to 20 flights a day? I hope the answer is yes. All it would take is maybe 4x LAS, 2x PSP, 3x SAN, 3x SNA, 1x HNL/OGG/SJD/PVR/SLC.
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:10 pm

MAH4546 wrote:

AS isn’t fading at SFO. SF is a very tough market right now with demand significantly weaker than other areas that have picked up, and AS (and others) are acting appropriately.

And SFOBOG? United will be flying supersonic jets before that ever happens. Those routes are not opportunities for B6, it’s a way to light money on fire.

Yeah, SFO is a very tough market. The thing is, it's always been a tough market, which is part of the reason why they are struggling. AS is indeed fading. "Acting appropriately" would mean conserving their market share while reducing operations to meet lowered demand. Instead, forget the pandemic - we have seen Alaska's share *half* in the span of about 3 years, and even more so during the pandemic.

I understand the point about BOG, even though SFO is the second-largest O&D market without service. https://www.anna.aero/2020/12/03/routes ... ed-routes/ Colombia's tech scene (especially in MDE) is vibrant and growing, not to mention VFR to the country - but I'll concede that it is not the highest-yielding route out there, and the distance certainly doesn't help even though a MAX could fly it.

However, the other ones on the list I gave are prime examples of the niche I feel that B6 could find success in targeting - VFR & leisure. A large reason why UA doesn't operate more SFO-LatAm routes is because of their reluctancy to make IAH redundant for connections, which is definitely a smart choice. However, this leaves an obvious niche here for B6 to capitalize on, that AS has largely ignored.
 
Abeam79
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:32 pm

tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec-show.aspx?ipage=15020023&Cik=0001158463&Type=PDF
This did not improve as much as I thought it would. Estimated Q2 revenue to be down 30 to 33% vs previous estimation of 30 to 35%. Still a tough market.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-jetblue-promo/
continued effort by AA for its members to fly both AA and B6.

jfklganyc wrote:
Corporate demand isnt coming back at all…yet.

B6 just cut BOS to LGA for Sept.

Really says it all


yeah, that does say a lot. Not sure how they get to 15x on this route next year if it's gone for sep/oct.

JoseSalazar wrote:

From what I understand it will be 2 LD for next year but also 5 LR's as well. If they want they can be flexible with swapping some LR's to do a transcon turn and pad the mint 2.0 even more using LR's to LAX vs them just sitting on the ground. IE, if business demand picks up, they can use a spare LR and use it on a LAX turn with the 24 mint suites and swap a LD for a JFK-SFO, and when the LR comes back from LAX in the early afternoon get it ready for the outbound to LHR/LGW. So in all
Sounds like it’s only gonna be 2 LDs this year and next, so what you say checks. What a disappointMint. Also sounds like no chance of the order book getting revised to accelerate deliveries, at least as of now. Although apparently Hawaii with mint NEO is being looked at possibly for 2022. The delivery schedule doesn’t support that, so I doubt that happens. 2023 seems more likely as the earliest that happens.


If that's the case, then they continue to be a source of giant disappointment. After all the marketing/hype they've put in mint 2.0, they are not actually delivering the product. I'm not sure why they need more 200 seaters. Even 2 or 3 LDs next year would be a great boost to their reputation. They need to decide if they are just looking to compete with ULCCs or trying to chase high yield customers.

sfojvjets wrote:
Really appreciate this analysis and very much agree. As AS fades, B6 is the natural carrier to step in. The only thing now is whether management will continue to be enchanted by visions of a B6-dominated LAX, or settle for a less "glorious" yet more realistic SFO operation. Obvious holes of un(der)served markets include Hawaii (little competition for UA) and LatAm, as well as skinny transcons. LatAm, I feel, is the true dark horse when you take into account opportunities beyond CUN, which was started late 2020. SJO, LIR, BOG, GUA, BZE, SJD, PVR, and SAL all come to mind.


Well, I think they had the goal of 2 west coast focus cities when they were bidding for VX. Due to their long history in LA area with LGB, LAX was the more natural place for them to build up. When they struck the deal with LAX last year, the current competitive landscape in LAX vs SFO was not known. Now, we see LAX remains the most fragmented airport int he country. In comparison, SFO looks to be under-served for the next few years. It really surprised me how much AS has shrunk at SFO. Even if it takes several years for SFO to recover to 2019 size, SFO is still an incredibly important market. It's a much larger market than SEA, which continues to get too much capacity.

If they were to grow naturally at SFO through more flights to focus cities, they can probably get to low 30s in the number of flights by the end of 2025. A focus city would probably get them to close to 50 flights a day by that time. Can they find enough resources to fund an extra 15 to 20 flights a day? I hope the answer is yes. All it would take is maybe 4x LAS, 2x PSP, 3x SAN, 3x SNA, 1x HNL/OGG/SJD/PVR/SLC.


From what I understand they are also getting 5 LR's in 2022 which all have MINT 2.0, so between 5 LR's and 2 LD's thats a total of 7 new airplanes with new MINT 2.0 for 2022. Also since the LR's will be ETOPS, that "may" be possible to start LA-HNL as I was told by a friend that Scott Laurence made a comment on yesterday about it may be possible to launch HI by summer 2022. I guess would be better than instead of having it sit all day in JFK. They can use a LR as such, lands back in JFK from LHR in the evening, I believe it was 9;15pm, it can turn and head to LAX, then LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK-LHR rotation. Probaby be super tight getting it at the station to be in position fr the next flight, but something may be worked out possibly
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 501
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 4:44 am

Abeam79 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec-show.aspx?ipage=15020023&Cik=0001158463&Type=PDF
This did not improve as much as I thought it would. Estimated Q2 revenue to be down 30 to 33% vs previous estimation of 30 to 35%. Still a tough market.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-jetblue-promo/
continued effort by AA for its members to fly both AA and B6.

jfklganyc wrote:
Corporate demand isnt coming back at all…yet.

B6 just cut BOS to LGA for Sept.

Really says it all


yeah, that does say a lot. Not sure how they get to 15x on this route next year if it's gone for sep/oct.

JoseSalazar wrote:

From what I understand it will be 2 LD for next year but also 5 LR's as well. If they want they can be flexible with swapping some LR's to do a transcon turn and pad the mint 2.0 even more using LR's to LAX vs them just sitting on the ground. IE, if business demand picks up, they can use a spare LR and use it on a LAX turn with the 24 mint suites and swap a LD for a JFK-SFO, and when the LR comes back from LAX in the early afternoon get it ready for the outbound to LHR/LGW. So in all
Sounds like it’s only gonna be 2 LDs this year and next, so what you say checks. What a disappointMint. Also sounds like no chance of the order book getting revised to accelerate deliveries, at least as of now. Although apparently Hawaii with mint NEO is being looked at possibly for 2022. The delivery schedule doesn’t support that, so I doubt that happens. 2023 seems more likely as the earliest that happens.


If that's the case, then they continue to be a source of giant disappointment. After all the marketing/hype they've put in mint 2.0, they are not actually delivering the product. I'm not sure why they need more 200 seaters. Even 2 or 3 LDs next year would be a great boost to their reputation. They need to decide if they are just looking to compete with ULCCs or trying to chase high yield customers.

sfojvjets wrote:
Really appreciate this analysis and very much agree. As AS fades, B6 is the natural carrier to step in. The only thing now is whether management will continue to be enchanted by visions of a B6-dominated LAX, or settle for a less "glorious" yet more realistic SFO operation. Obvious holes of un(der)served markets include Hawaii (little competition for UA) and LatAm, as well as skinny transcons. LatAm, I feel, is the true dark horse when you take into account opportunities beyond CUN, which was started late 2020. SJO, LIR, BOG, GUA, BZE, SJD, PVR, and SAL all come to mind.


Well, I think they had the goal of 2 west coast focus cities when they were bidding for VX. Due to their long history in LA area with LGB, LAX was the more natural place for them to build up. When they struck the deal with LAX last year, the current competitive landscape in LAX vs SFO was not known. Now, we see LAX remains the most fragmented airport int he country. In comparison, SFO looks to be under-served for the next few years. It really surprised me how much AS has shrunk at SFO. Even if it takes several years for SFO to recover to 2019 size, SFO is still an incredibly important market. It's a much larger market than SEA, which continues to get too much capacity.

If they were to grow naturally at SFO through more flights to focus cities, they can probably get to low 30s in the number of flights by the end of 2025. A focus city would probably get them to close to 50 flights a day by that time. Can they find enough resources to fund an extra 15 to 20 flights a day? I hope the answer is yes. All it would take is maybe 4x LAS, 2x PSP, 3x SAN, 3x SNA, 1x HNL/OGG/SJD/PVR/SLC.


From what I understand they are also getting 5 LR's in 2022 which all have MINT 2.0, so between 5 LR's and 2 LD's thats a total of 7 new airplanes with new MINT 2.0 for 2022. Also since the LR's will be ETOPS, that "may" be possible to start LA-HNL as I was told by a friend that Scott Laurence made a comment on yesterday about it may be possible to launch HI by summer 2022. I guess would be better than instead of having it sit all day in JFK. They can use a LR as such, lands back in JFK from LHR in the evening, I believe it was 9;15pm, it can turn and head to LAX, then LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK-LHR rotation. Probaby be super tight getting it at the station to be in position fr the next flight, but something may be worked out possibly

3 LRs and 2 LDs in 2021, only 3 LRs in 2022 and no LDs according to the current order book. I heard Scott’s 2022 HI comment, and I can say he didn’t sound very confident that would happen in 22. Would be nice though.
 
User avatar
jfklganyc
Posts: 6417
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2004 2:31 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 9:43 am

Abeam79 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec-show.aspx?ipage=15020023&Cik=0001158463&Type=PDF
This did not improve as much as I thought it would. Estimated Q2 revenue to be down 30 to 33% vs previous estimation of 30 to 35%. Still a tough market.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-jetblue-promo/
continued effort by AA for its members to fly both AA and B6.

jfklganyc wrote:
Corporate demand isnt coming back at all…yet.

B6 just cut BOS to LGA for Sept.

Really says it all


yeah, that does say a lot. Not sure how they get to 15x on this route next year if it's gone for sep/oct.

JoseSalazar wrote:

From what I understand it will be 2 LD for next year but also 5 LR's as well. If they want they can be flexible with swapping some LR's to do a transcon turn and pad the mint 2.0 even more using LR's to LAX vs them just sitting on the ground. IE, if business demand picks up, they can use a spare LR and use it on a LAX turn with the 24 mint suites and swap a LD for a JFK-SFO, and when the LR comes back from LAX in the early afternoon get it ready for the outbound to LHR/LGW. So in all
Sounds like it’s only gonna be 2 LDs this year and next, so what you say checks. What a disappointMint. Also sounds like no chance of the order book getting revised to accelerate deliveries, at least as of now. Although apparently Hawaii with mint NEO is being looked at possibly for 2022. The delivery schedule doesn’t support that, so I doubt that happens. 2023 seems more likely as the earliest that happens.


If that's the case, then they continue to be a source of giant disappointment. After all the marketing/hype they've put in mint 2.0, they are not actually delivering the product. I'm not sure why they need more 200 seaters. Even 2 or 3 LDs next year would be a great boost to their reputation. They need to decide if they are just looking to compete with ULCCs or trying to chase high yield customers.

sfojvjets wrote:
Really appreciate this analysis and very much agree. As AS fades, B6 is the natural carrier to step in. The only thing now is whether management will continue to be enchanted by visions of a B6-dominated LAX, or settle for a less "glorious" yet more realistic SFO operation. Obvious holes of un(der)served markets include Hawaii (little competition for UA) and LatAm, as well as skinny transcons. LatAm, I feel, is the true dark horse when you take into account opportunities beyond CUN, which was started late 2020. SJO, LIR, BOG, GUA, BZE, SJD, PVR, and SAL all come to mind.


Well, I think they had the goal of 2 west coast focus cities when they were bidding for VX. Due to their long history in LA area with LGB, LAX was the more natural place for them to build up. When they struck the deal with LAX last year, the current competitive landscape in LAX vs SFO was not known. Now, we see LAX remains the most fragmented airport int he country. In comparison, SFO looks to be under-served for the next few years. It really surprised me how much AS has shrunk at SFO. Even if it takes several years for SFO to recover to 2019 size, SFO is still an incredibly important market. It's a much larger market than SEA, which continues to get too much capacity.

If they were to grow naturally at SFO through more flights to focus cities, they can probably get to low 30s in the number of flights by the end of 2025. A focus city would probably get them to close to 50 flights a day by that time. Can they find enough resources to fund an extra 15 to 20 flights a day? I hope the answer is yes. All it would take is maybe 4x LAS, 2x PSP, 3x SAN, 3x SNA, 1x HNL/OGG/SJD/PVR/SLC.


From what I understand they are also getting 5 LR's in 2022 which all have MINT 2.0, so between 5 LR's and 2 LD's thats a total of 7 new airplanes with new MINT 2.0 for 2022. Also since the LR's will be ETOPS, that "may" be possible to start LA-HNL as I was told by a friend that Scott Laurence made a comment on yesterday about it may be possible to launch HI by summer 2022. I guess would be better than instead of having it sit all day in JFK. They can use a LR as such, lands back in JFK from LHR in the evening, I believe it was 9;15pm, it can turn and head to LAX, then LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK-LHR rotation. Probaby be super tight getting it at the station to be in position fr the next flight, but something may be worked out possibly



B6 cant do that at all.

They run a terrible operation that particularly falls apart with aircraft over-utilization.

If transcon Mint is any indication, the aircraft to and from London will have elongated sits so the high profile flights could go on time. This is to prevent LAX SFO and London from getting JetBlue’d
 
tphuang
Posts: 6433
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:28 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
From what I understand they are also getting 5 LR's in 2022 which all have MINT 2.0, so between 5 LR's and 2 LD's thats a total of 7 new airplanes with new MINT 2.0 for 2022. Also since the LR's will be ETOPS, that "may" be possible to start LA-HNL as I was told by a friend that Scott Laurence made a comment on yesterday about it may be possible to launch HI by summer 2022. I guess would be better than instead of having it sit all day in JFK. They can use a LR as such, lands back in JFK from LHR in the evening, I believe it was 9;15pm, it can turn and head to LAX, then LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK-LHR rotation. Probaby be super tight getting it at the station to be in position fr the next flight, but something may be worked out possibly

3 LRs and 2 LDs in 2021, only 3 LRs in 2022 and no LDs according to the current order book. I heard Scott’s 2022 HI comment, and I can say he didn’t sound very confident that would happen in 22. Would be nice though.


this is from 10-Q filing at the end of Q1
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... F&hasPdf=1
2021 -> 3 A321NEO already delivered + 5 more A321NEO and 7 A220
2022-> 3 A321NEO and 9 A220
2023-> 11 A321NEO and 18 A220
2024-> 13 A321NEO and 22 A220
2025 -> 11 A321NEO and 12 A220
2026 -> 12 A321NEO and 1 A220
2027 -> 14 A321NEO

In late 2020, they re-jigged their order book to push those A321NEO/LR/XLR deliveries back. That is totally expected when nobody knew the recovery timeline. I can also understand minimizing capex in 2022 to pay down debts. But now that demand is coming back pretty strongly, it's baffling they are not pushing those A321NEO deliveries forward. Other airlines have been doing that recently. I can only assume that most of E90 retirement has been pushed back to the 2025 to 2030 time frame. Otherwise, they are giving up a lot of growth here. They are going to have to retire quite a few A320s and E90s from 2023 to 2025, so those 2023/2024 deliveries are not used purely for growth.

If they want to launch LAX-HNL, they need to move a couple of A321NEO deliveries into 2022. It's baffling to me they are only taking 2 A321LD this year and the next. That's not enough to cover all the mint routes they added out of EWR and LAX, let alone Hawaii. They are going to be forced to put more A320s and all-core A321s on JFK/BOS-SFO. That's a real mistake imo. They need A321LDs more than all-core A321NEOs at this point.
 
ytib
Posts: 693
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:22 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
From what I understand they are also getting 5 LR's in 2022 which all have MINT 2.0, so between 5 LR's and 2 LD's thats a total of 7 new airplanes with new MINT 2.0 for 2022. Also since the LR's will be ETOPS, that "may" be possible to start LA-HNL as I was told by a friend that Scott Laurence made a comment on yesterday about it may be possible to launch HI by summer 2022. I guess would be better than instead of having it sit all day in JFK. They can use a LR as such, lands back in JFK from LHR in the evening, I believe it was 9;15pm, it can turn and head to LAX, then LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK-LHR rotation. Probaby be super tight getting it at the station to be in position fr the next flight, but something may be worked out possibly

3 LRs and 2 LDs in 2021, only 3 LRs in 2022 and no LDs according to the current order book. I heard Scott’s 2022 HI comment, and I can say he didn’t sound very confident that would happen in 22. Would be nice though.


this is from 10-Q filing at the end of Q1
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... F&hasPdf=1
2021 -> 3 A321NEO already delivered + 5 more A321NEO and 7 A220
2022-> 3 A321NEO and 9 A220
2023-> 11 A321NEO and 18 A220
2024-> 13 A321NEO and 22 A220
2025 -> 11 A321NEO and 12 A220
2026 -> 12 A321NEO and 1 A220
2027 -> 14 A321NEO

In late 2020, they re-jigged their order book to push those A321NEO/LR/XLR deliveries back. That is totally expected when nobody knew the recovery timeline. I can also understand minimizing capex in 2022 to pay down debts. But now that demand is coming back pretty strongly, it's baffling they are not pushing those A321NEO deliveries forward. Other airlines have been doing that recently. I can only assume that most of E90 retirement has been pushed back to the 2025 to 2030 time frame. Otherwise, they are giving up a lot of growth here. They are going to have to retire quite a few A320s and E90s from 2023 to 2025, so those 2023/2024 deliveries are not used purely for growth.

If they want to launch LAX-HNL, they need to move a couple of A321NEO deliveries into 2022. It's baffling to me they are only taking 2 A321LD this year and the next. That's not enough to cover all the mint routes they added out of EWR and LAX, let alone Hawaii. They are going to be forced to put more A320s and all-core A321s on JFK/BOS-SFO. That's a real mistake imo. They need A321LDs more than all-core A321NEOs at this point.


Right now it sounds like only the LR will go through ETOPS certification. What are the plans for the fleet in the future?
318, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 388, 707, 717, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73Q, 735, 73G, 738, 7M8, 739, 752, 753, 742, 74L, 744, 762, 763, 772, 77L, 77W, 789, 142, CN1, CR2, CR7, DC8, DH2, DH8, D8Q, D10, D95, EM2, ER3, ER4, E70, 100, J31, M11, M83, M88, M90, SF3
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 501
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:36 pm

ytib wrote:
tphuang wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
3 LRs and 2 LDs in 2021, only 3 LRs in 2022 and no LDs according to the current order book. I heard Scott’s 2022 HI comment, and I can say he didn’t sound very confident that would happen in 22. Would be nice though.


this is from 10-Q filing at the end of Q1
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... F&hasPdf=1
2021 -> 3 A321NEO already delivered + 5 more A321NEO and 7 A220
2022-> 3 A321NEO and 9 A220
2023-> 11 A321NEO and 18 A220
2024-> 13 A321NEO and 22 A220
2025 -> 11 A321NEO and 12 A220
2026 -> 12 A321NEO and 1 A220
2027 -> 14 A321NEO

In late 2020, they re-jigged their order book to push those A321NEO/LR/XLR deliveries back. That is totally expected when nobody knew the recovery timeline. I can also understand minimizing capex in 2022 to pay down debts. But now that demand is coming back pretty strongly, it's baffling they are not pushing those A321NEO deliveries forward. Other airlines have been doing that recently. I can only assume that most of E90 retirement has been pushed back to the 2025 to 2030 time frame. Otherwise, they are giving up a lot of growth here. They are going to have to retire quite a few A320s and E90s from 2023 to 2025, so those 2023/2024 deliveries are not used purely for growth.

If they want to launch LAX-HNL, they need to move a couple of A321NEO deliveries into 2022. It's baffling to me they are only taking 2 A321LD this year and the next. That's not enough to cover all the mint routes they added out of EWR and LAX, let alone Hawaii. They are going to be forced to put more A320s and all-core A321s on JFK/BOS-SFO. That's a real mistake imo. They need A321LDs more than all-core A321NEOs at this point.


Right now it sounds like only the LR will go through ETOPS certification. What are the plans for the fleet in the future?


Some LDs would be added to etops if/when necessary.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 232
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:33 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
ytib wrote:
tphuang wrote:

this is from 10-Q filing at the end of Q1
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... F&hasPdf=1
2021 -> 3 A321NEO already delivered + 5 more A321NEO and 7 A220
2022-> 3 A321NEO and 9 A220
2023-> 11 A321NEO and 18 A220
2024-> 13 A321NEO and 22 A220
2025 -> 11 A321NEO and 12 A220
2026 -> 12 A321NEO and 1 A220
2027 -> 14 A321NEO

In late 2020, they re-jigged their order book to push those A321NEO/LR/XLR deliveries back. That is totally expected when nobody knew the recovery timeline. I can also understand minimizing capex in 2022 to pay down debts. But now that demand is coming back pretty strongly, it's baffling they are not pushing those A321NEO deliveries forward. Other airlines have been doing that recently. I can only assume that most of E90 retirement has been pushed back to the 2025 to 2030 time frame. Otherwise, they are giving up a lot of growth here. They are going to have to retire quite a few A320s and E90s from 2023 to 2025, so those 2023/2024 deliveries are not used purely for growth.

If they want to launch LAX-HNL, they need to move a couple of A321NEO deliveries into 2022. It's baffling to me they are only taking 2 A321LD this year and the next. That's not enough to cover all the mint routes they added out of EWR and LAX, let alone Hawaii. They are going to be forced to put more A320s and all-core A321s on JFK/BOS-SFO. That's a real mistake imo. They need A321LDs more than all-core A321NEOs at this point.


Right now it sounds like only the LR will go through ETOPS certification. What are the plans for the fleet in the future?


Some LDs would be added to etops if/when necessary.

Getting some LDs ETOPS'd and having LDs delivered in 2022 would probably allow for LAX-HNL/OGG to start. Having A321LRs stuck in the domestic network on a JFK-LAX turn could add a lot of complexity to what is a completely new market and operation for JetBlue, so I don't think it would make too much sense to send them to LAX to serve Hawaii flights. My question is, if some A321LD get ETOPS, how feasible will it be to get a plane to do JFK-LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK rotation?
 
nine4nine
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:56 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
ytib wrote:

Right now it sounds like only the LR will go through ETOPS certification. What are the plans for the fleet in the future?


Some LDs would be added to etops if/when necessary.

Getting some LDs ETOPS'd and having LDs delivered in 2022 would probably allow for LAX-HNL/OGG to start. Having A321LRs stuck in the domestic network on a JFK-LAX turn could add a lot of complexity to what is a completely new market and operation for JetBlue, so I don't think it would make too much sense to send them to LAX to serve Hawaii flights. My question is, if some A321LD get ETOPS, how feasible will it be to get a plane to do JFK-LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK rotation?



Better yet, would it have the legs to do LAX-PPT or LAX-RAR? Hawaii is soooooo beyond saturated I think B6 could kill it on other South Pacific markets from LA…IF this birdie has the legs. Seriously LAX doesn’t need a 7th Hawaii carrier
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
Abeam79
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:04 pm

nine4nine wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:

Some LDs would be added to etops if/when necessary.

Getting some LDs ETOPS'd and having LDs delivered in 2022 would probably allow for LAX-HNL/OGG to start. Having A321LRs stuck in the domestic network on a JFK-LAX turn could add a lot of complexity to what is a completely new market and operation for JetBlue, so I don't think it would make too much sense to send them to LAX to serve Hawaii flights. My question is, if some A321LD get ETOPS, how feasible will it be to get a plane to do JFK-LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK rotation?



Better yet, would it have the legs to do LAX-PPT or LAX-RAR? Hawaii is soooooo beyond saturated I think B6 could kill it on other South Pacific markets from LA…IF this birdie has the legs. Seriously LAX doesn’t need a 7th Hawaii carrier


So I have heard from a friend there that Hawaii isn't the only place they are looking at going further westward out of socal,LAX. LAX-PPT is 3500nm, completely within the LR range and well within the XLR range. I think they are going to surprise us with what they do further west with LR's/XLR's beyond just Hawaii.
Also back to the fleet question, they did say yesterday that 10 Airbuses are still sitting in the desert and are due for maintenance checks so they don't want to utilize it unless they continue to see demand tick up continuously more going into 2022. So in essence sounds like they may deploy them if they have to seeing how demand goes. If thats the case then that will help expand into more markets aggressively like they have been this past year. Seems like a smart contingency play.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:06 pm

nine4nine wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:

Some LDs would be added to etops if/when necessary.

Getting some LDs ETOPS'd and having LDs delivered in 2022 would probably allow for LAX-HNL/OGG to start. Having A321LRs stuck in the domestic network on a JFK-LAX turn could add a lot of complexity to what is a completely new market and operation for JetBlue, so I don't think it would make too much sense to send them to LAX to serve Hawaii flights. My question is, if some A321LD get ETOPS, how feasible will it be to get a plane to do JFK-LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK rotation?



Better yet, would it have the legs to do LAX-PPT or LAX-RAR? Hawaii is soooooo beyond saturated I think B6 could kill it on other South Pacific markets from LA…IF this birdie has the legs. Seriously LAX doesn’t need a 7th Hawaii carrier


Has JetBlue publicly stated that they intend on serving Hawaii and, if so did they say it would be from LAX or is this mainly just a.net chatter? It really doesn't make a lot of sense coming in as the 7th carrier from a market they're already having trouble in beyond JFK/BOS/FLL.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:08 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
Getting some LDs ETOPS'd and having LDs delivered in 2022 would probably allow for LAX-HNL/OGG to start. Having A321LRs stuck in the domestic network on a JFK-LAX turn could add a lot of complexity to what is a completely new market and operation for JetBlue, so I don't think it would make too much sense to send them to LAX to serve Hawaii flights. My question is, if some A321LD get ETOPS, how feasible will it be to get a plane to do JFK-LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK rotation?



Better yet, would it have the legs to do LAX-PPT or LAX-RAR? Hawaii is soooooo beyond saturated I think B6 could kill it on other South Pacific markets from LA…IF this birdie has the legs. Seriously LAX doesn’t need a 7th Hawaii carrier


So I have heard from a friend there that Hawaii isn't the only place they are looking at going further westward out of socal,LAX. LAX-PPT is 3500nm, completely within the LR range and well within the XLR range. I think they are going to surprise us with what they do further west with LR's/XLR's beyond just Hawaii.
Also back to the fleet question, they did say yesterday that 10 Airbuses are still sitting in the desert and are due for maintenance checks so they don't want to utilize it unless they continue to see demand tick up continuously more going into 2022. So in essence sounds like they may deploy them if they have to seeing how demand goes. If thats the case then that will help expand into more markets aggressively like they have been this past year. Seems like a smart contingency play.


LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?
 
Abeam79
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:16 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:


Better yet, would it have the legs to do LAX-PPT or LAX-RAR? Hawaii is soooooo beyond saturated I think B6 could kill it on other South Pacific markets from LA…IF this birdie has the legs. Seriously LAX doesn’t need a 7th Hawaii carrier


So I have heard from a friend there that Hawaii isn't the only place they are looking at going further westward out of socal,LAX. LAX-PPT is 3500nm, completely within the LR range and well within the XLR range. I think they are going to surprise us with what they do further west with LR's/XLR's beyond just Hawaii.
Also back to the fleet question, they did say yesterday that 10 Airbuses are still sitting in the desert and are due for maintenance checks so they don't want to utilize it unless they continue to see demand tick up continuously more going into 2022. So in essence sounds like they may deploy them if they have to seeing how demand goes. If thats the case then that will help expand into more markets aggressively like they have been this past year. Seems like a smart contingency play.


LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?


Yes, LR-4000NM, and XLR is 4500. And recently there have been reports by TAP that thier LR broke records flying up to 4700nm for a LR! Makes you wonder how far the XLR will be doing being its advertising 4500nm, and Jetblue's LR/XLR will have a lower seat count.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 340f521b74
As far as expanding from west coast to pacific region as "anet chatter" it was mentioned as the plans going forward 2023 and beyond by their head of market planning in an internal employee webcast.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:19 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:


Better yet, would it have the legs to do LAX-PPT or LAX-RAR? Hawaii is soooooo beyond saturated I think B6 could kill it on other South Pacific markets from LA…IF this birdie has the legs. Seriously LAX doesn’t need a 7th Hawaii carrier


So I have heard from a friend there that Hawaii isn't the only place they are looking at going further westward out of socal,LAX. LAX-PPT is 3500nm, completely within the LR range and well within the XLR range. I think they are going to surprise us with what they do further west with LR's/XLR's beyond just Hawaii.
Also back to the fleet question, they did say yesterday that 10 Airbuses are still sitting in the desert and are due for maintenance checks so they don't want to utilize it unless they continue to see demand tick up continuously more going into 2022. So in essence sounds like they may deploy them if they have to seeing how demand goes. If thats the case then that will help expand into more markets aggressively like they have been this past year. Seems like a smart contingency play.


LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?


Also I believe since PPT-LAX unlike LAX-Hawaii isn’t an East/West routing that headwinds really don’t become an issue.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
nine4nine
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:20 pm

ASFlyer wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
Getting some LDs ETOPS'd and having LDs delivered in 2022 would probably allow for LAX-HNL/OGG to start. Having A321LRs stuck in the domestic network on a JFK-LAX turn could add a lot of complexity to what is a completely new market and operation for JetBlue, so I don't think it would make too much sense to send them to LAX to serve Hawaii flights. My question is, if some A321LD get ETOPS, how feasible will it be to get a plane to do JFK-LAX-HNL-LAX-JFK rotation?



Better yet, would it have the legs to do LAX-PPT or LAX-RAR? Hawaii is soooooo beyond saturated I think B6 could kill it on other South Pacific markets from LA…IF this birdie has the legs. Seriously LAX doesn’t need a 7th Hawaii carrier


Has JetBlue publicly stated that they intend on serving Hawaii and, if so did they say it would be from LAX or is this mainly just a.net chatter? It really doesn't make a lot of sense coming in as the 7th carrier from a market they're already having trouble in beyond JFK/BOS/FLL.



If B6 entered the oversaturated LA-Hawaii market especially HNL they would actually be the 8th.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:21 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:

So I have heard from a friend there that Hawaii isn't the only place they are looking at going further westward out of socal,LAX. LAX-PPT is 3500nm, completely within the LR range and well within the XLR range. I think they are going to surprise us with what they do further west with LR's/XLR's beyond just Hawaii.
Also back to the fleet question, they did say yesterday that 10 Airbuses are still sitting in the desert and are due for maintenance checks so they don't want to utilize it unless they continue to see demand tick up continuously more going into 2022. So in essence sounds like they may deploy them if they have to seeing how demand goes. If thats the case then that will help expand into more markets aggressively like they have been this past year. Seems like a smart contingency play.


LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?


Yes, LR-4000NM, and XLR is 4500. And recently there have been reports by TAP that thier LR broke records flying up to 4700nm for a LR! Makes you wonder how far the XLR will be doing being its advertising 4500nm, and Jetblue's LR/XLR will have a lower seat count.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 340f521b74
As far as expanding from west coast to pacific region as "anet chatter" it was mentioned as the plans going forward 2023 and beyond by their head of market planning in an internal employee webcast.


It'll be interesting to see what they do. If I had to guess, I don't see them blasting into the South Pacific, rather I see them solidifying their east coast presence and continuing to add European destinations - and possibly some western Africa destinations. Trying to be everything to everyone is kind of Delta's game and they're not bad at it - but they also have a solid presence at LAX, SLC and SEA to gain traffic to the South Pacific. JetBlue lacks that right now. Who knows what the future holds though...
 
Abeam79
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:22 pm

nine4nine wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:

So I have heard from a friend there that Hawaii isn't the only place they are looking at going further westward out of socal,LAX. LAX-PPT is 3500nm, completely within the LR range and well within the XLR range. I think they are going to surprise us with what they do further west with LR's/XLR's beyond just Hawaii.
Also back to the fleet question, they did say yesterday that 10 Airbuses are still sitting in the desert and are due for maintenance checks so they don't want to utilize it unless they continue to see demand tick up continuously more going into 2022. So in essence sounds like they may deploy them if they have to seeing how demand goes. If thats the case then that will help expand into more markets aggressively like they have been this past year. Seems like a smart contingency play.


LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?


Also I believe since PPT-LAX unlike LAX-Hawaii isn’t an East/West routing that headwinds really don’t become an issue.


GCM shows LAX-PPT as 3559nm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 340f521b74
LAX-RAR just over 4000nm
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-RAR&DU=nm&SU=mph
Air Transat crossed the Atlantic with a LR Montreal-Athens recently 4100nm
https://twitter.com/Airbus/status/13207 ... -flight%2F
Heres the TAP flight, also an LR. (Again, LR was advertised to be sold to do max 4000nm)
https://simpleflying.com/tap-longest-a321lr-flight/
 
Abeam79
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:30 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:

LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?


Also I believe since PPT-LAX unlike LAX-Hawaii isn’t an East/West routing that headwinds really don’t become an issue.


GCM shows LAX-PPT as 3559nm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 340f521b74
LAX-RAR just over 4000nm
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-RAR&DU=nm&SU=mph
Air Transat crossed the Atlantic with a LR Montreal-Athens recently 4100nm
https://twitter.com/Airbus/status/13207 ... -flight%2F
Heres the TAP flight, also an LR. (Again, LR was advertised to be sold to do max 4000nm)
https://simpleflying.com/tap-longest-a321lr-flight/

I don't think they need to be everything to everyone, just the right thing for the right market. AKA serve a nich market well. which they do very well. But yes, I think they will be solidifying the transatlantic as a priority first going to more beyond London into the UK and western EU. They are clear as that being a higher priority
 
ScottB
Posts: 7420
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:36 pm

nine4nine wrote:
Also I believe since PPT-LAX unlike LAX-Hawaii isn’t an East/West routing that headwinds really don’t become an issue.


There's still going to be some headwind component and you can't fly the great circle route with the ETOPS-180 approved for the neo. Plus you need quite a bit of extra fuel to account for the potential of three hours of flight at lower altitude on a single engine.
 
ytib
Posts: 693
Joined: Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:22 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Thu Jun 10, 2021 11:46 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:

LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?


Also I believe since PPT-LAX unlike LAX-Hawaii isn’t an East/West routing that headwinds really don’t become an issue.


GCM shows LAX-PPT as 3559nm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 340f521b74
LAX-RAR just over 4000nm
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-RAR&DU=nm&SU=mph
Air Transat crossed the Atlantic with a LR Montreal-Athens recently 4100nm
https://twitter.com/Airbus/status/13207 ... -flight%2F
Heres the TAP flight, also an LR. (Again, LR was advertised to be sold to do max 4000nm)
https://simpleflying.com/tap-longest-a321lr-flight/


You can't use the GCM for LAX-PPT as there is a large amount of area which is outside of ETOPS 180.
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-ppt&DU=nm&E=180

This flight recently is over 4100nm
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/THT ... /NTAA/KLAX
318, 319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 388, 707, 717, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73Q, 735, 73G, 738, 7M8, 739, 752, 753, 742, 74L, 744, 762, 763, 772, 77L, 77W, 789, 142, CN1, CR2, CR7, DC8, DH2, DH8, D8Q, D10, D95, EM2, ER3, ER4, E70, 100, J31, M11, M83, M88, M90, SF3
 
tphuang
Posts: 6433
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:38 am

A321XLR should be able to do LAX-PPT, but it's first deliveries are probably in the 2024 to 2025 range at this point. We'd have to see how rest of the network is going before that makes sense. If they do get the LAX terminal space they need, then I think it makes a lot of sense. Keep in mind that anything they try on the west coast is 1 less destination they can try in Europe or Africa or deep South America. I have advocated PPT for a while, but it's not exactly important for their network.

Also, they may want to order a widebody aircraft by 2025 if the A321LR/XLR flying is going well. For example, it'd be hard for them to try JFK-NRT or JFK-TLV with XLR. I can see VFR flying to sub-sahara Africa to be a goldmine out of JFK, since there really is not many strong domestic carriers there.

As for HI, I think that's definitely happening. I'm under the impression that they've been telling their crewmember of their interest there for a while. I don't see how you can capture local market in west coast without flying to some of its largest leisure destination. Mint is really made to excel for these high end leisure markets with a lot of premium demand. Also if you think about the biggest holes in their network after London, HNL/OGG are right up there. I'd rank the 10 biggest holes for JetBlue network (that's within A321XLR range) to be the following in some order
CDG, DUB, AMS, YYZ, HNL, OGG, GRU, EZE, MEX, STL
I would think HNL/OGG are probably 2 of the easier ones from that list. HNL/OGG are also obvious adds if they were to buildup a SFO focus city.

As for those A320s that are sitting in the desert. They will need them when they have to increase their LGA/JFK flying next year. JetBlue will have to really increase its capacity to meet the NEA demand.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:48 am

Abeam79 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
ASFlyer wrote:

LAX-PPT is 4095nm according to great circle mapper. Does the LR or XLR have the range for that?


Also I believe since PPT-LAX unlike LAX-Hawaii isn’t an East/West routing that headwinds really don’t become an issue.


GCM shows LAX-PPT as 3559nm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 340f521b74
LAX-RAR just over 4000nm
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-RAR&DU=nm&SU=mph
Air Transat crossed the Atlantic with a LR Montreal-Athens recently 4100nm
https://twitter.com/Airbus/status/13207 ... -flight%2F
Heres the TAP flight, also an LR. (Again, LR was advertised to be sold to do max 4000nm)
https://simpleflying.com/tap-longest-a321lr-flight/


shows 4095 miles here under ETOPS 180
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-ppt&MS=wls&DU=mi&E=180

LAX-RAR shows significantly more than you're saying
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-rar&MS=wls&DU=mi&E=180
Last edited by ASFlyer on Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
seatown1
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:33 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:52 am

tphuang wrote:
Also, they may want to order a widebody aircraft by 2025 if the A321LR/XLR flying is going well. For example, it'd be hard for them to try JFK-NRT or JFK-TLV with XLR. I can see VFR flying to sub-sahara Africa to be a goldmine out of JFK, since there really is not many strong domestic carriers there.


DL covers DKR, ACC, and LOS. What other market within range of the XLR would be worth serving with a mint-heavy aircraft?
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:55 am

tphuang wrote:
Also, they may want to order a widebody aircraft by 2025 if the A321LR/XLR flying is going well. For example, it'd be hard for them to try JFK-NRT or JFK-TLV with XLR. I can see VFR flying to sub-sahara Africa to be a goldmine out of JFK, since there really is not many strong domestic carriers there.

As for HI, I think that's definitely happening. I'm under the impression that they've been telling their crewmember of their interest there for a while.


I agree about Africa flying. I think they could tap into a market that's not well served there.

My question remains about Hawaii though - is this just a.net chatter or has someone in management at B6 publicly stated that Hawaii is in their near(-ish) term future? I've heard a lot of chatter here about it, I just wondered whether it's just that - a.net rumor
 
Abeam79
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2014 3:16 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:36 am

ASFlyer wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
nine4nine wrote:

Also I believe since PPT-LAX unlike LAX-Hawaii isn’t an East/West routing that headwinds really don’t become an issue.


GCM shows LAX-PPT as 3559nm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgol ... 340f521b74
LAX-RAR just over 4000nm
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-RAR&DU=nm&SU=mph
Air Transat crossed the Atlantic with a LR Montreal-Athens recently 4100nm
https://twitter.com/Airbus/status/13207 ... -flight%2F
Heres the TAP flight, also an LR. (Again, LR was advertised to be sold to do max 4000nm)
https://simpleflying.com/tap-longest-a321lr-flight/


shows 4095 miles here under ETOPS 180
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-ppt&MS=wls&DU=mi&E=180

LAX-RAR shows significantly more than you're saying
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=lax-rar&MS=wls&DU=mi&E=180

Thats in Statute miles, the LR/XLR is advertised its range in nautical miles, and LAX-RAR is just under 4100 NM.
As far as Hawaii, I have multiple friends that are crew-members that work there and all have said thats what management have mentioned, and some don't even know each other. but the priority first will be expanding into E.U. market. Although HNL/OGG will be high on the LAX expansion in the next few years.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 501
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:44 am

ASFlyer wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also, they may want to order a widebody aircraft by 2025 if the A321LR/XLR flying is going well. For example, it'd be hard for them to try JFK-NRT or JFK-TLV with XLR. I can see VFR flying to sub-sahara Africa to be a goldmine out of JFK, since there really is not many strong domestic carriers there.

As for HI, I think that's definitely happening. I'm under the impression that they've been telling their crewmember of their interest there for a while.


I agree about Africa flying. I think they could tap into a market that's not well served there.

My question remains about Hawaii though - is this just a.net chatter or has someone in management at B6 publicly stated that Hawaii is in their near(-ish) term future? I've heard a lot of chatter here about it, I just wondered whether it's just that - a.net rumor

It gets asked (along with several other destinations) on just about every employee town hall Q&A.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1817
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:14 am

with all respect then, it's just people talking? I mean, Belize and Costa Rica had been coming up at Alaska town halls since the early 2000's. In fact, when Alaska started flying to BOS, everyone started saying that AS was looking at BOS-LHR. It was ridiculous, but that's what crews do - we talk a lot of crap and spread it around like it's the gospel truth. When management says they're looking at Hawaii on the long term then I'll believe it. Right now, I just don't get it. There are currently 7 carriers flying to Hawaii from LAX (UA, AA, DL, WN, HA, AS, SY). Does JetBlue just want to light money on fire?
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 501
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:17 am

ASFlyer wrote:
with all respect then, it's just people talking? I mean, Belize and Costa Rica had been coming up at Alaska town halls since the early 2000's. In fact, when Alaska started flying to BOS, everyone started saying that AS was looking at BOS-LHR. It was ridiculous, but that's what crews do - we talk a lot of crap and spread it around like it's the gospel truth. When management says they're looking at Hawaii on the long term then I'll believe it. Right now, I just don't get it. There are currently 7 carriers flying to Hawaii from LAX (UA, AA, DL, WN, HA, AS, SY). Does JetBlue just want to light money on fire?

Lots of nuggets have been dropped here, but I don’t think many people are inclined to post specifics from internal company communications. Regarding the 7 carriers flying that route, I don’t think JetBlue minds competition, unless of course it causes avg fares to be real low across the board.
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:20 am

Frankly I think all of this talk about PPT is just straight up nonsense. Sure, you can look at range and exclaim, "Wow! The LR and XLR can both reach PPT from LAX!" However, the key issue is that a key part of the equation is missing, which is ETOPS. The 321neo currently is certified for etops 180... no issues for TATL but when you start to look at the pacific, especially south pacific, things start to go haywire.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=ppt-sfo%2F ... U=nm&E=180

While SFO may be doable, LAX simply doesn't seem like a good option when you are burning more fuel than competitors (since you cannot follow the great circle route) and your plane has a higher CASM (138 seats on an LR is not exactly a leisure-oriented config). Not ideal for PPT.

And even HI might be quite some time away, I think. Of course, the earlier the better, but can/will they certify the classic a321ceos (with mint) for etops 180? That would be the best way to start HI service without having to use a much lower-CASM LD or LR. And even better, the 2-2 config in J would be appreciated by couples.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6433
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 12:19 pm

seatown1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also, they may want to order a widebody aircraft by 2025 if the A321LR/XLR flying is going well. For example, it'd be hard for them to try JFK-NRT or JFK-TLV with XLR. I can see VFR flying to sub-sahara Africa to be a goldmine out of JFK, since there really is not many strong domestic carriers there.


DL covers DKR, ACC, and LOS. What other market within range of the XLR would be worth serving with a mint-heavy aircraft?


I don't have O&D numbers from NYC to these places, but I would imagine there are probably a couple of more markets that can be served with both VFR and some business demand. ABV would be one. Something like BOS-RAI could work for both VFR and leisure. DL serves DSS/ACC/LOS with 767 and A330s. And from what I've seen and heard, they make a bunch of money on them. Even the Y fares are quite high. It should be a lot easier to serve these markets year round with daily service on A321XLR vs A330. JetBlue makes a lot of VFR markets work that DL cannot.

ASFlyer wrote:
with all respect then, it's just people talking? I mean, Belize and Costa Rica had been coming up at Alaska town halls since the early 2000's. In fact, when Alaska started flying to BOS, everyone started saying that AS was looking at BOS-LHR. It was ridiculous, but that's what crews do - we talk a lot of crap and spread it around like it's the gospel truth. When management says they're looking at Hawaii on the long term then I'll believe it. Right now, I just don't get it. There are currently 7 carriers flying to Hawaii from LAX (UA, AA, DL, WN, HA, AS, SY). Does JetBlue just want to light money on fire?


I don't know why it's so hard to believe. It really isn't a tougher market than some of the other ones they compete in. I think you are thinking about this from the view of AS.

You have to put yourself in the shoes of a JetBlue route planner. Unlike AS and WN, flying a lot of intra-west coast stuff for B6 is lighting money on fire. There is no way that LAX-HNL can be harder for them than LAX-SEA/PDX. So, they only want to serve the largest west coast markets from LAX with somewhat competitive schedule. They don't have a lot of ff or corporate contract in LA area. The best way for them to win local market share is to serve the popular leisure destinations. They look around and see that mint prints money everywhere and is very popular with high end leisure travelers. In fact, LAX-HNL/OGG is exactly the type of market mint should do well in. They'd easily have the best J product in the market. Just take a look at what the competition is providing.

On top of that, HNL/OGG is a very popular vacation destinations for people across the country, so it would also allow them to connect more passengers through LAX. B6 cannot rely on only O&D to make stuff like RIC/CHS/JAX-LAX work. They need to also connect some passengers to Hawaii and SJD/PVR.

sfojvjets wrote:
And even HI might be quite some time away, I think. Of course, the earlier the better, but can/will they certify the classic a321ceos (with mint) for etops 180? That would be the best way to start HI service without having to use a much lower-CASM LD or LR. And even better, the 2-2 config in J would be appreciated by couples.


I don't think they will certify A321CEO mint for ETOPS. Keep in mind, A321CEO mint already has pretty good CASM (only 6% higher than A320). A321LD probably has 5 to 10% lower CASM than A321CEO mint(1 more passenger + 15% less fuel burn). So, it will have very competitive CASM vs competition and also be a huge revenue driver. Of course, the next year will be very NEA focused. They've said that 2023 is when they start building up LAX. There really aren't that many destinations out of LAX that make more sense than HNL at this point.

I think it'd be interesting to see what happens to their LAX gate situation. To me, LAX is just a more competitive market than SFO. If LAWA dumps them in an unappealing location like MSC, you might see them shifting west coast resources to SFO.
 
MKIAZ
Posts: 290
Joined: Thu May 01, 2014 5:24 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 1:53 pm

I also wonder if they could use their A220's to do SNA-HNL/OGG That's a niche market for sure, but lots of $$$ in orange county and definitely some demand from people willing to pay more to avoid the drive to LAX
 
hbernal1
Posts: 232
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:00 pm

MKIAZ wrote:
I also wonder if they could use their A220's to do SNA-HNL/OGG That's a niche market for sure, but lots of $$$ in orange county and definitely some demand from people willing to pay more to avoid the drive to LAX

I’m not too sure B6 would get a lot of slots when/if they enter SNA. New entrants usually get 3 slot pairs so I’d rather see 3x daily SNA-SFO (only 1 A220 would be needed to do all of the rotations) and then SNA pax can connect onwards on SFO-HNL/OGG.

Once there are more A220s available (and if B6 get more than 3 slots) it would be nice to maybe see SNA-JFK/BOS or SNA-FLL.

Here’s a question though: would a more premium-heavy config like an A321LD be able to land/take off from SNA’s short runway? I believe NK uses A320NEOs from SNA. I could be wrong.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 501
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:25 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
MKIAZ wrote:
I also wonder if they could use their A220's to do SNA-HNL/OGG That's a niche market for sure, but lots of $$$ in orange county and definitely some demand from people willing to pay more to avoid the drive to LAX

I’m not too sure B6 would get a lot of slots when/if they enter SNA. New entrants usually get 3 slot pairs so I’d rather see 3x daily SNA-SFO (only 1 A220 would be needed to do all of the rotations) and then SNA pax can connect onwards on SFO-HNL/OGG.

Once there are more A220s available (and if B6 get more than 3 slots) it would be nice to maybe see SNA-JFK/BOS or SNA-FLL.

Here’s a question though: would a more premium-heavy config like an A321LD be able to land/take off from SNA’s short runway? I believe NK uses A320NEOs from SNA. I could be wrong.


AA will be using the A321T SNA-JFK next month. https://onemileatatime.com/american-air ... ge-county/

A B6 A321LD could do it, but likely with a very large payload hit. Large enough that it won’t happen is my guess. I’d love to be wrong though.
 
hbernal1
Posts: 232
Joined: Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:51 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
seatown1 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Also, they may want to order a widebody aircraft by 2025 if the A321LR/XLR flying is going well. For example, it'd be hard for them to try JFK-NRT or JFK-TLV with XLR. I can see VFR flying to sub-sahara Africa to be a goldmine out of JFK, since there really is not many strong domestic carriers there.


DL covers DKR, ACC, and LOS. What other market within range of the XLR would be worth serving with a mint-heavy aircraft?


I don't have O&D numbers from NYC to these places, but I would imagine there are probably a couple of more markets that can be served with both VFR and some business demand. ABV would be one. Something like BOS-RAI could work for both VFR and leisure. DL serves DSS/ACC/LOS with 767 and A330s. And from what I've seen and heard, they make a bunch of money on them. Even the Y fares are quite high. It should be a lot easier to serve these markets year round with daily service on A321XLR vs A330. JetBlue makes a lot of VFR markets work that DL cannot.

ASFlyer wrote:
with all respect then, it's just people talking? I mean, Belize and Costa Rica had been coming up at Alaska town halls since the early 2000's. In fact, when Alaska started flying to BOS, everyone started saying that AS was looking at BOS-LHR. It was ridiculous, but that's what crews do - we talk a lot of crap and spread it around like it's the gospel truth. When management says they're looking at Hawaii on the long term then I'll believe it. Right now, I just don't get it. There are currently 7 carriers flying to Hawaii from LAX (UA, AA, DL, WN, HA, AS, SY). Does JetBlue just want to light money on fire?


I don't know why it's so hard to believe. It really isn't a tougher market than some of the other ones they compete in. I think you are thinking about this from the view of AS.

You have to put yourself in the shoes of a JetBlue route planner. Unlike AS and WN, flying a lot of intra-west coast stuff for B6 is lighting money on fire. There is no way that LAX-HNL can be harder for them than LAX-SEA/PDX. So, they only want to serve the largest west coast markets from LAX with somewhat competitive schedule. They don't have a lot of ff or corporate contract in LA area. The best way for them to win local market share is to serve the popular leisure destinations. They look around and see that mint prints money everywhere and is very popular with high end leisure travelers. In fact, LAX-HNL/OGG is exactly the type of market mint should do well in. They'd easily have the best J product in the market. Just take a look at what the competition is providing.

On top of that, HNL/OGG is a very popular vacation destinations for people across the country, so it would also allow them to connect more passengers through LAX. B6 cannot rely on only O&D to make stuff like RIC/CHS/JAX-LAX work. They need to also connect some passengers to Hawaii and SJD/PVR.

sfojvjets wrote:
And even HI might be quite some time away, I think. Of course, the earlier the better, but can/will they certify the classic a321ceos (with mint) for etops 180? That would be the best way to start HI service without having to use a much lower-CASM LD or LR. And even better, the 2-2 config in J would be appreciated by couples.


I don't think they will certify A321CEO mint for ETOPS. Keep in mind, A321CEO mint already has pretty good CASM (only 6% higher than A320). A321LD probably has 5 to 10% lower CASM than A321CEO mint(1 more passenger + 15% less fuel burn). So, it will have very competitive CASM vs competition and also be a huge revenue driver. Of course, the next year will be very NEA focused. They've said that 2023 is when they start building up LAX. There really aren't that many destinations out of LAX that make more sense than HNL at this point.

I think it'd be interesting to see what happens to their LAX gate situation. To me, LAX is just a more competitive market than SFO. If LAWA dumps them in an unappealing location like MSC, you might see them shifting west coast resources to SFO.

Hawaii is an obvious Mint add from both LAX and SFO. Good CASM on the A321LDs should also mean competitive pricing in Y.

Now that you mention LAX gates, how many gates are JetBlue using at LAX? Today they’re operating 35 flights and yesterday was 37 so they need to be using 4 gates at least. If they want to double in size to 75 flights they’ll probably need 4 more.

I also was looking at some LAX traffic reports and it seems to me that B6 are on track to move up to #6 ahead of NK this year. I’m not sure how B6 ranks at LAX in terms of ASM.
 
nine4nine
Posts: 791
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:44 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:55 pm

What is the fascination with LAX-HNL??? There’s already 7 carriers on the route and the yields suck. B6 should really focus on niche markets that will actually make them money, not just jump onto a route because basically almost every other major US airline is on it with high frequencies, plus a lot of seats being reward redemptions too. Hence why I brought up PPT and RAR as alternative niche markets that carry high premium demand and have little competition. Hawaii especially HNL isn’t the only market in the Pacific.
717, 727-100, 727-200, 732, 733, 734, 735, 73G, 738, 739, 742, 748, 752, 753, 762, 763, 772, 77W, 787-10, DC9, MD80/88/90, DC10, 319, 220-300, 320, 321, 321n, 332, 333, CS100, CRJ200, Q400, E175, E190, ERJ145, EMB120
 
trueblew
Posts: 262
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 5:11 pm

nine4nine wrote:
What is the fascination with LAX-HNL??? There’s already 7 carriers on the route and the yields suck. B6 should really focus on niche markets that will actually make them money, not just jump onto a route because basically almost every other major US airline is on it with high frequencies, plus a lot of seats being reward redemptions too. Hence why I brought up PPT and RAR as alternative niche markets that carry high premium demand and have little competition. Hawaii especially HNL isn’t the only market in the Pacific.


The reason a lot of seats are reward redemptions is because of the existence of loyal pax. That is the whole point. Not every route is a zero sum equation. You need a network that people want to redeem their points on, and if you are trying to build a large customer base in SoCal or the Bay Area you need Hawaii on the map. How is this so unbelievable to you?
 
seatown1
Posts: 21
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:33 pm

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 5:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
seatown1 wrote:
I don't have O&D numbers from NYC to these places, but I would imagine there are probably a couple of more markets that can be served with both VFR and some business demand. ABV would be one. Something like BOS-RAI could work for both VFR and leisure. DL serves DSS/ACC/LOS with 767 and A330s. And from what I've seen and heard, they make a bunch of money on them. Even the Y fares are quite high. It should be a lot easier to serve these markets year round with daily service on A321XLR vs A330. JetBlue makes a lot of VFR markets work that DL cannot..


I get that, but I feel like those cities might become marginal considering the cargo capacity would effectively be zero on the XLR coming out of those markets. Africa is a tough nut to crack, and Jetblue's CASM advantage wouldn't be that great on an aircraft that is so premium heavy.
 
N757ST
Posts: 1106
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 6:00 am

Re: Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

Fri Jun 11, 2021 5:44 pm

Lol… PPT, HNL…

No, as demand rebounds JetBlue’s singular focus will likely be their once in a lifetime opportunity to utilize slots via the NEA and solidify their position in JFK, EWR, and LGA. After that , refocus on Boston and incremental growth in LAX to insure they get the gates they requested from LAWA. XLRs and LRs will be used in the coming years to grow a European franchise. The amount of resources and logistics required to make PPT a reality isn’t going to happen, IMO.

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