No idea on Mint wrt to JFK-BUR. I'd think EWR-BUR is more likely than mint JFK-BUR, but who knows. They will need more A321 mint delivery to make it work.

Departures from various stations yesterday. A lot of delays + cancellations to Florida due to weather
JFK - 100 (DL 114, AA 31)
BOS - 85 (DL 50, AA 36)
EWR - 43 (UA 181)
FLL - 64 (NK 70, WN 22)

Also from CF this week.

The following routes are getting cut for the summer.
FLL-PIT/POS
PVD-RSW/PBI/TPA
SFO-AUS/RDU
DCA-RSW
TPA-RIC

Keep in mind that a lot of the Florida markets are quite weak in summer time. I would expect most of them to come back in the fall.

After their first large summer cut, they were still up 11% in capacity vs 2019. It's also quite likely they will announce more NYC routes for the summer rush. During summer peak period, it is impossible for them to operate their large NYC schedule without cutting elsewhere. I would imagine they can also cut routes long thin routes like JFK-ONT/BOS-SJC if they need the aircraft to operate 2 or 3 shorter East Coast flights.

Nicknuzzii wrote:

B6 pick up another gate at EWR or did they just use 15 for overflow? That would bring B6 up to 11.

I know just before Covid they started flying solely core 321 mix of CEO/NEO and occasionally a mint ac was subbed in. I remember reading a post about it on the official B6 Facebook page and someone asked if it were in the works for mint service to be permanent and the reply from B6 was “keep your eyes peeled, anything is possible”. So I think it was planned, obviously thrown on the back burner. I’d wait for the resumption of service to build some legs under it again and then wouldn’t doubt to see it offered. BUR-JFK can be very premium with studio/celeb/corporate and local wealth of surrounding areas in the valley and Hollywood.

11C wrote:

Can someone who is versed in codeshares explain the Qatar Airways codeshare announcement? How does IAD figure in when B6 no longer serves IAD?

Basically, you can book flights between Doha, Qatar and nine airports across the USA. IAD is one of them because DCA doesn't do international flights.

Boston Logan International Airport (BOS)
Chicago’s O'Hare International Airport (ORD)
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW)
Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL)
Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH)
Miami International Airport (MIA)
New York’s John F. Kennedy international Airport (JFK)
Philadelphia International Airport (PHL)
Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD)

Additionally -- you can, as a JetBlue codeshare customer -- also book to these following destinations via Doha.
Amman, Jordan’s Queen Alia International Airport (AMM)
Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KUL)
Maldives’ Male International Airport (MLE)
Oman’s Muscat International Airport (MCT) & Salalah International Airport (SLL)
Seychelles International Airport (SEZ)
Singapore Changi Airport (SIN)

Of course, given JetBlue's "technology," good luck getting the website to actually work the way the agreement sounds like it was intended to.

I don't think the QR announcement means much for a B6 return to IAD. Although, I do think that will happen at some point. QR codeshare just gives them some additional revenue opportunity. They will hopefully be able to continue to leverage their presence at JFK/BOS/EWR into more international codeshare that are in their favor.

Anyhow, the far and away most important deal for them is the NEA. They put out a press release for new VPs http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -203814198. Normally, I don't make a big deal out of it, but they did name someone just for the role of implementing NEA.

I'm seeing a lot more questions on line from both b6/AA ff about earning miles on other airlines metals. It looks to me that they still have quite a lot of implementation left. One big step forward recently is that AA is now selling mint fares on its website (it was previously only selling Y) And I see them listing B6 non-stop flights ahead of AA 1-stop options. (I don't see any AS options in there) Even on a route like BOS-SEA, I only see B6 non-stop options on AA.com. So it's really great for the partnership that AA seems to only be putting codeshares on B6 flights out of NYC/BOS.

Out of BOS, mint should give B6/AA quite the legs up on premium ff over DL/UA. It looks like DL has now taken D1/lie flat off BOS-LAX. Aside from UA on BOS-SFO, B6 should be the only carrier operating lie flat on BOS-LAX/SFO/SAN/LAS/SEA. I'd have to think B6/AA's ff programs will have quite the legs up over DL/UA in BOS. A lot of details are still to be worked out based on all the questions/feedback I've seen on FT. So, it looks like getting the User experience worked out smoothly and making mosaic more appealing have to be top priorities for JetBlue loyalty program, website/app and customer support.

Other things of note from what I can see in last week's schedule changes:
AS continues to take a sledgehammer to their non-SEA transcon network. Most of the cuts really help out B6. For example, FLL-PDX is cut till end of July and FLL-SEA is down to 1x daily. EWR/JFK-LAX/SFO/SAN are all down to sub daily. BOS-LAX is cut till end of July. BOS-PDX/SAN/SFO are all sub daily.

F9 in their recent round of adds have done very little at EWR or any other major JetBlue stations.

NK cutting EWR-AUS/BNA/RSW/TPA + BOS-ATL/BWI/EWR/LAS/MSY/ORD/RSW/TPA for June. Unlike other airlines, NK really aren't cutting back that many scheduled flights for June. It's a good thing for B6 when NK turns attention to other places. There are only so many places NK can deploy its capacity even if it has more expansion plans than other airlines. At some point, NK will be making more longer term cuts. Looks like some of its BOS/EWR stuff is not working out great, at least for summer time.

tphuang wrote:

I don't think the QR announcement means much for a B6 return to IAD. Although, I do think that will happen at some point. QR codeshare just gives them some additional revenue opportunity. They will hopefully be able to continue to leverage their presence at JFK/BOS/EWR into more international codeshare that are in their favor.

Anyhow, the far and away most important deal for them is the NEA. They put out a press release for new VPs http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -203814198. Normally, I don't make a big deal out of it, but they did name someone just for the role of implementing NEA.

I'm seeing a lot more questions on line from both b6/AA ff about earning miles on other airlines metals. It looks to me that they still have quite a lot of implementation left. One big step forward recently is that AA is now selling mint fares on its website (it was previously only selling Y) And I see them listing B6 non-stop flights ahead of AA 1-stop options. (I don't see any AS options in there) Even on a route like BOS-SEA, I only see B6 non-stop options on AA.com. So it's really great for the partnership that AA seems to only be putting codeshares on B6 flights out of NYC/BOS.

Out of BOS, mint should give B6/AA quite the legs up on premium ff over DL/UA. It looks like DL has now taken D1/lie flat off BOS-LAX. Aside from UA on BOS-SFO, B6 should be the only carrier operating lie flat on BOS-LAX/SFO/SAN/LAS/SEA. I'd have to think B6/AA's ff programs will have quite the legs up over DL/UA in BOS. A lot of details are still to be worked out based on all the questions/feedback I've seen on FT. So, it looks like getting the User experience worked out smoothly and making mosaic more appealing have to be top priorities for JetBlue loyalty program, website/app and customer support.

Other things of note from what I can see in last week's schedule changes:
AS continues to take a sledgehammer to their non-SEA transcon network. Most of the cuts really help out B6. For example, FLL-PDX is cut till end of July and FLL-SEA is down to 1x daily. EWR/JFK-LAX/SFO/SAN are all down to sub daily. BOS-LAX is cut till end of July. BOS-PDX/SAN/SFO are all sub daily.

F9 in their recent round of adds have done very little at EWR or any other major JetBlue stations.

NK cutting EWR-AUS/BNA/RSW/TPA + BOS-ATL/BWI/EWR/LAS/MSY/ORD/RSW/TPA for June. Unlike other airlines, NK really aren't cutting back that many scheduled flights for June. It's a good thing for B6 when NK turns attention to other places. There are only so many places NK can deploy its capacity even if it has more expansion plans than other airlines. At some point, NK will be making more longer term cuts. Looks like some of its BOS/EWR stuff is not working out great, at least for summer time.

AA is definitely showing AS flights where applicable. BOS-SEA for example: https://www.aa.com/booking/flights/choo ... ACom=false

B6 and UA have definitely put pressure on the other carriers out of EWR. NK in June will be about at their prepandemic schedule which isn’t much and F9 has done what F9 always does, comes and goes. I’m not really sure what’s going on with AS because as B6 sees more demand for the TCONS AS pulls more capacity. I think moving forward B6 will move to add more capacity on routes instead of these all sub weekly adds. The demand is coming back and UA’s capacity isn’t.

I wonder how AA feels about the Qatar codeshare.

Great move for Qatar. First a much tighter relationship with AA, then with Alaska and now Jetblue.

tphuang wrote:

Anyhow, the far and away most important deal for them is the NEA. They put out a press release for new VPs http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -203814198. Normally, I don't make a big deal out of it, but they did name someone just for the role of implementing NEA.

I'm seeing a lot more questions on line from both b6/AA ff about earning miles on other airlines metals. It looks to me that they still have quite a lot of implementation left. One big step forward recently is that AA is now selling mint fares on its website (it was previously only selling Y) And I see them listing B6 non-stop flights ahead of AA 1-stop options. (I don't see any AS options in there) Even on a route like BOS-SEA, I only see B6 non-stop options on AA.com. So it's really great for the partnership that AA seems to only be putting codeshares on B6 flights out of NYC/BOS.

These are all great things for B6 and hopefully it leads to additional revenues for them. It seems like already, AA customers are getting more options out of Boston.

I know I've banged this drum before, but what exactly is supposed to be the net benefit for TrueBlue members? Aside from a few extra frequencies on some routes, that don't work for B6 connections, it doesn't seem like this has opened up any new destinations to JetBlue customers that AA was serving but B6 was not.

It almost seems like -- right now -- I'd be better off switching to become an AA member -- and use the NEA to fly on JetBlue metal.

Brickell305 wrote:

AA is definitely showing AS flights where applicable. BOS-SEA for example: https://www.aa.com/booking/flights/choo ... ACom=false

sorry, that link doesn't work for me. I can't find anything for AS on the dates I searched. Doesn't mean it's not available.
Also on google flights, you see JetBlue/American listed on the 1 JetBlue flight but not the 3 Alaska flights
https://www.google.com/travel/flights/s ... QAFIAZgBAg

Nicknuzzii wrote:

B6 and UA have definitely put pressure on the other carriers out of EWR. NK in June will be about at their prepandemic schedule which isn’t much and F9 has done what F9 always does, comes and goes. I’m not really sure what’s going on with AS because as B6 sees more demand for the TCONS AS pulls more capacity. I think moving forward B6 will move to add more capacity on routes instead of these all sub weekly adds. The demand is coming back and UA’s capacity isn’t.

I think the BE matching by B6/UA is taking a toll on the ULCCs. Also, demand out of NYC area (even out of EWR) is still weak compared to other parts of the country that didn't shutdown. Long term, I think this means NK will probably not be getting more gates.

Again, B6 just cut 9 routes for the summer. That could allow them to add new routes.

B6BOSfan wrote:

These are all great things for B6 and hopefully it leads to additional revenues for them. It seems like already, AA customers are getting more options out of Boston.

long term, B6 will be able to enter more markets and add frequencies to existing markets if AA ff are mostly booking non-stop options on B6. So, that's a huge benefit. Keep in mind that the demand recovery has been mostly in leisure markets and the new markets they are likely to add out of BOS are business markets. So, it might take another year or two to see some of these midwest markets get added.

I know I've banged this drum before, but what exactly is supposed to be the net benefit for TrueBlue members? Aside from a few extra frequencies on some routes, that don't work for B6 connections, it doesn't seem like this has opened up any new destinations to JetBlue customers that AA was serving but B6 was not.

It almost seems like -- right now -- I'd be better off switching to become an AA member -- and use the NEA to fly on JetBlue metal.

The implementation still has a long to go. Assuming it does get implemented properly, you should get better earning on B6 flights and redeeming rates as TrueBlue member. Also, BE fares are not available on codeshare. On top of that, Mosaic members have some upgrade/baggage privileges even on blue basic fares that may or may not get implemented with AAdvantage members. I think you are going to see more mosaic levels coming, which will make the differences more clear. It does seem to me that mosaic benefits are lagging compared to other ff programs.

Today is the inaugural JFK-GUA. Equipment change to an A321 starting in May. I wonder if initial bookings have exceeded expectations.

avi8 wrote:

Today is the inaugural JFK-GUA. Equipment change to an A321 starting in May. I wonder if initial bookings have exceeded expectations.

it definitely seems that way compared to some of the other routes they added at the same time.

I see GUA as 5x weekly throughout May and early June and becomes daily in the summer time all with A321. It helps that they have no competition out of JFK (although UA does fly 1x from EWR).

In comparison, there are 3 other carriers on JFK-BOG. They are 1x weekly in May and 3x in early June and daily in summer. I'm assuming there will be more cuts on this when summer rolls around.

GEO I'm seeing 4x weekly in May and Daily from June onward. 2 other carriers here.

GYE is probably the best performing one and they are daily throughout and are looking to add a second flight in June.

They are not even operating JFK-SJO in April/May and currently scheduled to operate daily in summer season. I'd imagine that will get further reductions.

BOG really shows the need for an A20N B6 order, as one needs either a wide-body or the more powerful neo engines (B6 only has 15 core A21Ns right now and you need them on GYE and GEO). I know the A20N can do BOG-JFK (right now, it's an A319 with an occasional A332 sub, but in the winter season, it was an A319/A20N/A332 mix), but can an A21N do BOG-JFK with 33,000-lb thrust engines as opposed to 30,000-lb A321 engines? (If it can, then I wouldn't be surprised if UIO-JFK is a possibility as well.)

As for the new A21N with domestic Mint (these have R3/L3 plugged unlike the 200-seat A21Ns which don't), a schedule was announced for the first frame, N2105J, which is currently parked at JFK. https://onemileatatime.com/jetblue-a321neo-mint/

Regarding the -XLR, I do wonder if some current neo orders should be converted to such for 200-seat frames, in addition to 24 J seat frames...200-seat frames being primarily for South America routes from FLL or MCO.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

Regarding the -XLR, I do wonder if some current neo orders should be converted to such for 200-seat frames, in addition to 24 J seat frames...200-seat frames being primarily for South America routes from FLL or MCO.

If they go to deep South America - which I doubt will ever happen - they need the same 24J to be competitive. And it won't happen from Orlando.

More on the A321LD going into service.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/jetblue-mint-studio-fee/
The studios are coming with a $199 upcharge over the mint suites. I think on a market like JFK-LAX, that will go upcharge will go up really fast. It's easily better than AA's F seats on A321T and probably will in the future attract certain clientele who are willing to pay $300 to $400 more than other lie flat seats.

They really could use a lot more delivery of A321LDs. They only have 3 of these coming in this year and none in 2022. Maybe with improved finances, they will take a chance to speed up A321NEO deliveries. I think this aircraft can work on JFK/EWR-LAX, JFK-SFO and possibly even FLL-LAX. As they are looking to compete with legacies for the top dollar, they will need to put more of their flagship product into service. I also see them sending out a bunch of survey to mosaic members on improvements to that program. A multi-tier mosaic program is something they need to do to attract those 100k tier members from legacy carriers.

As for South America, I think that will happen, but may have been pushed back a little bit due to the need to grow NYC operation. It really depends on how quickly TATL demand comes back.

tphuang wrote:

No idea on Mint wrt to JFK-BUR. I'd think EWR-BUR is more likely than mint JFK-BUR, but who knows. They will need more A321 mint delivery to make it work.

Departures from various stations yesterday. A lot of delays + cancellations to Florida due to weather
JFK - 100 (DL 114, AA 31)
BOS - 85 (DL 50, AA 36)
EWR - 43 (UA 181)
FLL - 64 (NK 70, WN 22)

Also from CF this week.

The following routes are getting cut for the summer.
FLL-PIT/POS
PVD-RSW/PBI/TPA
SFO-AUS/RDU
DCA-RSW
TPA-RIC

Keep in mind that a lot of the Florida markets are quite weak in summer time. I would expect most of them to come back in the fall.

After their first large summer cut, they were still up 11% in capacity vs 2019. It's also quite likely they will announce more NYC routes for the summer rush. During summer peak period, it is impossible for them to operate their large NYC schedule without cutting elsewhere. I would imagine they can also cut routes long thin routes like JFK-ONT/BOS-SJC if they need the aircraft to operate 2 or 3 shorter East Coast flights.

After June 30, those PVD routes go on haitus.

Do we see B6 returning to ANC given the recent adds from others?

juan885 wrote:

Do we see B6 returning to ANC given the recent adds from others?

I am unsure if B6 will return to ANC due to the limited connectivity that would be there on B6, but B6 adding ANC-LAX is a possibility with the focus city that B6 now has at ANC and B6 adding ANC-BOS/JFK might be a possibility with B6 scheduled to take delivery of A321LR and A321XLR planes that would have enough range to reach JFK/BOS nonstop from ANC.

Hello, my dad and I would like to fly Mint somewhere, and I would like to fly the new NEO's with the studios. We would fly out of Logan -- do you know what routes the Mint NEO's would be doing Feb 2022 besides California? Out of the 59 Neo's, how many of them will be LD and Core?

Also, do you know if/when the A220's would be doing PVD/RSW?

Thanks!

jplatts wrote:

juan885 wrote:

Do we see B6 returning to ANC given the recent adds from others?

I am unsure if B6 will return to ANC due to the limited connectivity that would be there on B6, but B6 adding ANC-LAX is a possibility with the focus city that B6 now has at ANC and B6 adding ANC-BOS/JFK might be a possibility with B6 scheduled to take delivery of A321LR and A321XLR planes that would have enough range to reach JFK/BOS nonstop from ANC.

JFK ANC has to be in the works when the aircraft arrive

Is there a reason why B6 does not offer almost any connections at JFK from the GUA flights? I have tried to book them on different dates to BOS and 4 hour-long connections are very uncompetitive versus other carriers. I understand their target market isn't connecting traffic but it seems a rather missed opportunity to not time the flight to connect to BOS and Washington, which have a decent O/D demand to GUA.

I thought they said ANC struggled to gain marketshare and never turned a profit is why the dropped it.

Flyguy

I see on Wikipedia that JetBlue is starting Boston - Reno nonstop on June 3. Does anyone have any info on this!?

standbyguy wrote:

I see on Wikipedia that JetBlue is starting Boston - Reno nonstop on June 3. Does anyone have any info on this!?

Yes - most likely a nonsense/wishful thinking edit to Wikipedia. JetBlue’s website doesn’t show it.

V/F

Just doing some hypothetical for the next 2 to 3 years to envision what JetBlue expansion could look like. As I've gathered from their summer cuts and such, they are probably look to operate around 1050 flights a day this summer on peak days with capacity level that's close to and probably even exceed what they flew in 2019. The # of flights is down due higher seat count per aircraft and much longer stage length (short haul business routes replaced by longer ranged leisure/VFR stuff). Pre-COVID, the peak # of flight was around 1150.

As of now, they are probably scheduled for about 250 peak departures out of JFK/EWR/LGA, 115 out of BOS, around 100 out of FLL/MIA, 45 out of MCO, 40 out of LAX and 38 out of SJU. That's about 585 departures in total between focus cities, which makes sense if they are planning to run about 1050 flights overall with minimal non focus city P2P stuff. Based on what they have so far and some anticipated NYC adds due to NEA, I think they will end up with about 260 peak departures out of JFK/EWR/LGA and fewer flights in other focus cities. This is assuming continued leisure demand recovery out of Northeast.

From now until April 2023, they will probably take delivery of about 30 aircraft + pulling 15 A320s out of storage? Assuming that they don't take in additional aircraft deliveries and retire any aircraft, it will be about 17 to 18% additional in service fleet that will be available for summer of 2023 vs this summer. If we assume shorter average stage length (from a lot more within perimeter NYC flying) and higher fleet utilization (due to E90 being smaller % of fleet), they can probably operate a little more than 20% more departure than pre-COVID height of 1150. That comes out to close to 1400 flights a day or a bump of close to 350 flights a day vs this summer. If focus city do around 55% of those departures, then about 190 more departures from focus cities from this summer until summer of 2023. Boston will probably be back to summer of 2019 size of 160 departures a day (45 to 50 flights mostly from return of short haul demand and slot utilization at LGA/JFK/DCA). I see MCO/SJU with no net growth in flights, LAX with minimal growth to about 45 departures a day and FLL/MIA see minimal growth to about 115 departures a day (mostly from increases to other focus cities).

Assuming no effort to build up RDU/SFO or add P2P at this point, they will be able to increase NYC to about 380 departures a day. Assuming the need to utilize 90% of their slots in peak summer season, they can end up with 220 at JFK, 50 at LGA, 110 at EWR. By this point, they will be back to pre-COVID situation of close to maxing out on the gate/slot resources they have at NYC area airport. They can probably add a few more flights at JFK (from claiming more slots and utilize existing pool more aggressively). Any additional EWR growth would dependent on how many gates they get in new T-1. My guess is that their daily peak departure among NYC airport will probably settle at around 400 during summer time and 360 to 380 during other parts of the year. Boston and South Florida will typically see more flights in March to May. Basically, I see them finishing most of their NYC growth and recover Boston and SoFla to pre-COVID size by this point.

From April 2023 to April 2025, they will probably see about 60 to 65 deliveries and some number of E90 retirement. My guess is that they will probably settle in on yearly increases of about 7% increase in flights and a little more than that in capacity (due to E90 retirement). 15% growth over 2 years in flights would allow them to operate 210 to 220 additional flights or about 110 to 120 more departures from focus cities. This would allow them to settle at 400 out of NYC, 200 out of BOS, 140 out of FLL/MIA, 60 to 70 out of LAX, 50 to 60 out of MCO and 40 out of SJU by summer of 2025. Boston will probably peak at around 210 to 220 in March/April and FLL/MIA will probably peak at 150 to 160 at the same time. Basically, I expect them to finish most of their discussed focus city growth at NYC/Boston/SoFla/LAX by 2025. Boston and South Florida probably have room for additional growth beyond that. It will really depend on how those markets grow.

I don't see much room for a real buildup out of RDU/SFO until after summer of 2025. By summer of 2025, RDU will probably grow to 35 flights a day and SFO will probably grow to 35 to 40 flights a day from increased service to focus cities and a few P2P routes. For growth beyond that, they'd probably need to make some kind of commitment with both airports (like they did with LAX) for some level of planned growth over a 5 year window in return for more gate access. SFO would probably be open to that with the lack of action at Harvey Milk Terminal and slow return of international traffic. I think RDU would be open to that too if JetBlue can commit to making it a focus city and putting in investment. I'm taking a look at how busy DL might be at RDU below.

I'm taking a look at DL's June schedule after their cut this weekend. As discussed in this post viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1459291&start=100#p22732707 from PSU.DTW.SCE, DL currently is slated to have 10% fewer mainline aircraft at end of 2022 vs end of 2018. While it maybe able to get to 100% 2019 capacity by summer of 2023, it's unlikely to get there with same number of flights. They did 6000 flights a day pre-COVID and are probably closer to 5000 flights a day this summer if I have to guess.

They made cuts to mid June today and it seems to me that this is pretty much their summer schedule since they brought back a lot of routes. In fact, I can't see a single domestic/Caribbean route they haven't brought back from JFK other than the ones they already removed from their schedule.

Here are how many flights I see out of their non-core hubs/focus cities
SEA 156 - quite a few notable midcon routes like IND/MKE/MCI/DFW/CMH not brought back
LAX 152 - very few domestic routes not brought back in some form
JFK 188 - brought back pretty much every non canceled domestic route, even if at 1x in some cases
LGA 138 - missing a lot of really small markets that were 2x daily of less pre-COVID.
BOS 88 - missing a lot of routes, but brought back quite a few notable ones like ORD/DCA/MIA
RDU 48 - Still basically just hubs + leisure markets and a few markets they brought back to retaliate against B6.

Since DL has pretty much brought back every aircraft and are increasing their mainline size by just 6% in the next 2 years, I don't see them adding more than 10% in flights from now until summer of 2023 and probably another 5 to 10% in flights by summer of 2025. I see DL probably adding 1000 to 1200 additional flights would be about 600 additional departures from hubs/focus cities. I anticipate that they will increase JFK/LGA from what it is now 325 flights a day to about 500 flights a day by then (their pre-COVID level) to counter B6/AA additions. Given the emphasis they've put into SEA/LAX during COVID time, I think there is at least desire to build those stations of more than 200 flights a day. That would be about 300 flights a day between NYC/SEA/LAX. Add in some core hubs growth or return to pre-COVID flying level (at DTW/MSP), there really isn't much left for BOS/RDU. From B6's perspective, I think there is quite a not insignificant likelihood of DL of drawing it down to hub + AUS/MCO/FLL/TPA and settle at around 50 to 55 flights a day. Whatever size BOS ends up at, I don't really see B6 in any danger there for a while. Even if DL even goes back up to 150 flights a day, it will be several years from now. So, I still see RDU as a target they need to have even if they can't do much there for the next couple of years.

avi8 wrote:

Is there a reason why B6 does not offer almost any connections at JFK from the GUA flights? I have tried to book them on different dates to BOS and 4 hour-long connections are very uncompetitive versus other carriers. I understand their target market isn't connecting traffic but it seems a rather missed opportunity to not time the flight to connect to BOS and Washington, which have a decent O/D demand to GUA.

Their connection situation between BOS and JFK for flights is -- in a word -- miserable. Consider yourself lucky you even got an connection to show up.

Hope they learn to optimize connections when they launch London -- if they expect to draw on any sort of connecting passengers.

I was not too clear earlier. I am saying there is a decent chance rdu will end up as a 50 to 55 flight station for delta. JetBlue should talk to rdu about establishing a focus city and growth over a 5 year period in exchange for greater gate access. Something that makes sense for them to do over the next 2 years if delta continues to not bring back more destinations and only fly to hubs plus aus and Florida.

Hello, my dad and I would like to fly Mint somewhere, and I would like to fly the new NEO's with the studios. We would fly out of Logan -- do you know what routes the Mint NEO's would be doing Feb 2022 besides California? Out of the 59 Neo's, how many of them will be LD and Core?

Also, do you know if/when the A220's would be doing PVD/RSW?

Thanks!

I think the new A321LD will only be flying JFK-LAX for a while. They are only going to have 3 LDs over the next couple of years. Out of Boston, the best chance to fly with new studio is to Europe or if LRs get domestic rotation. They will probably only have 16 NEO of non-LR variety in service by the end of 2022. The remaining 35 mint are all on A321CEO.

Due to small number of A220s, I'd think it will not touch PVD for a while. There is a chance BOS-RSW will get it. I guess we will see this with more entering service.

tphuang wrote:

I was not too clear earlier. I am saying there is a decent chance rdu will end up as a 50 to 55 flight station for delta. JetBlue should talk to rdu about establishing a focus city and growth over a 5 year period in exchange for greater gate access. Something that makes sense for them to do over the next 2 years if delta continues to not bring back more destinations and only fly to hubs plus aus and Florida.

Hello, my dad and I would like to fly Mint somewhere, and I would like to fly the new NEO's with the studios. We would fly out of Logan -- do you know what routes the Mint NEO's would be doing Feb 2022 besides California? Out of the 59 Neo's, how many of them will be LD and Core?

Also, do you know if/when the A220's would be doing PVD/RSW?

Thanks!

I think the new A321LD will only be flying JFK-LAX for a while. They are only going to have 3 LDs over the next couple of years. Out of Boston, the best chance to fly with new studio is to Europe or if LRs get domestic rotation. They will probably only have 16 NEO of non-LR variety in service by the end of 2022. The remaining 35 mint are all on A321CEO.

Due to small number of A220s, I'd think it will not touch PVD for a while. There is a chance BOS-RSW will get it. I guess we will see this with more entering service.

18 Non-LR's? There are 15 non-LR's in service now. What would be the chance of the LR getting domestically rotated? I think they should maybe retrofit the Ceo's to make them like the LD.

Is Providence not the first priority for the 220 because it's not very competitive? PVD-RSW is like a great route for the 220, although the 223 would be too small for PVD-MCO/FLL.

JBcapecott wrote:

Is Providence not the first priority for the 220 because it's not very competitive? PVD-RSW is like a great route for the 220, although the 223 would be too small for PVD-MCO/FLL.

Typically brand new fleets have initial routings that touch maintenance stations to help technicians gain familiarity with the aircraft as well as have prompt attention paid to issues that pop up between flights. You'll likely see the 220 hop around BOS/TPA/FLL/DCA/MCO/NYC (am I forgetting any east coast mtc stations?) for a little while before it branches out to stations without B6 maintenance staff.

looks like AA is bringing back BOS-SYR/ROC. Imo, this means B6 is not bringing back those 2 routes. E90 was probably too much capacity for it. Out of BOS-SYR/ROC/BWI/BUR, the only route I see possibly coming back is BWI and that probably will not happen until summer 2022.

I think that at this point, airlines have brought back all the routes they plan to operate until next summer at minimum. Any route that are not operating this summer are either gone or seasonal (if they are Florida routes that had been operating in spring time).

I think SEA-LAX is a permanent cut until probably 2023. I think the PHL/PVD-Florida and RDU/LGA/DCA-RSW/TPA cuts make those seasonal markets for at least the next year (and won't come until probably November). MCO-ATL/AUS/BOG are gone permanently. RDU-AUS/JAX are cut unless DL drops them. FLL-POS/GCM/BQN are probably cut until 2023. FLL-PIT is probably seasonal route and

JBcapecott wrote:

18 Non-LR's? There are 15 non-LR's in service now. What would be the chance of the LR getting domestically rotated? I think they should maybe retrofit the Ceo's to make them like the LD.

Is Providence not the first priority for the 220 because it's not very competitive? PVD-RSW is like a great route for the 220, although the 223 would be too small for PVD-MCO/FLL.

Looks like I miscounted. They have 15 all-core A321NEO in service right now and 1 A321LD entering service in June. There are 2 more A321LDs that they are taking in this year. Unless they readjust order book, they have no A321 Non-LR deliveries next year. I'm not sure they can retrofit CEOs to make them like the LD since they utilized A321NEO's cabin flex in order to setup the new mint configs.

tphuang wrote:

I was not too clear earlier. I am saying there is a decent chance rdu will end up as a 50 to 55 flight station for delta. JetBlue should talk to rdu about establishing a focus city and growth over a 5 year period in exchange for greater gate access. Something that makes sense for them to do over the next 2 years if delta continues to not bring back more destinations and only fly to hubs plus aus and Florida.

Delta is at 53 flights/day scheduled in early June at RDU....

DL will be larger than 50-55 flights/day at RDU.

AA will be at nearly 40 flights/day already in June, not sure there is much wiggle room for a B6 focus city.

tphuang wrote:

looks like AA is bringing back BOS-SYR/ROC. Imo, this means B6 is not bringing back those 2 routes. E90 was probably too much capacity for it. Out of BOS-SYR/ROC/BWI/BUR, the only route I see possibly coming back is BWI and that probably will not happen until summer 2022.

I think that at this point, airlines have brought back all the routes they plan to operate until next summer at minimum. Any route that are not operating this summer are either gone or seasonal (if they are Florida routes that had been operating in spring time).

I think SEA-LAX is a permanent cut until probably 2023. I think the PHL/PVD-Florida and RDU/LGA/DCA-RSW/TPA cuts make those seasonal markets for at least the next year (and won't come until probably November). MCO-ATL/AUS/BOG are gone permanently. RDU-AUS/JAX are cut unless DL drops them. FLL-POS/GCM/BQN are probably cut until 2023. FLL-PIT is probably seasonal route and

JBcapecott wrote:

18 Non-LR's? There are 15 non-LR's in service now. What would be the chance of the LR getting domestically rotated? I think they should maybe retrofit the Ceo's to make them like the LD.

Is Providence not the first priority for the 220 because it's not very competitive? PVD-RSW is like a great route for the 220, although the 223 would be too small for PVD-MCO/FLL.

Looks like I miscounted. They have 15 all-core A321NEO in service right now and 1 A321LD entering service in June. There are 2 more A321LDs that they are taking in this year. Unless they readjust order book, they have no A321 Non-LR deliveries next year. I'm not sure they can retrofit CEOs to make them like the LD since they utilized A321NEO's cabin flex in order to setup the new mint configs.

The borders in GCM and POS are both still closed. FLL to either destination would likely restart once the restrictions are lifted and that should be well before 2023.

N3008J (A220) bopping between Portland and Bangor Maine all day today.

ChrisNH38 wrote:

N3008J (A220) bopping between Portland and Bangor Maine all day today.

They’ve been doing runs all over the country. Transcons and even SJU


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Midwestindy wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I was not too clear earlier. I am saying there is a decent chance rdu will end up as a 50 to 55 flight station for delta. JetBlue should talk to rdu about establishing a focus city and growth over a 5 year period in exchange for greater gate access. Something that makes sense for them to do over the next 2 years if delta continues to not bring back more destinations and only fly to hubs plus aus and Florida.

Delta is at 53 flights/day scheduled in early June at RDU....

DL will be larger than 50-55 flights/day at RDU.

AA will be at nearly 40 flights/day already in June, not sure there is much wiggle room for a B6 focus city.

I counted 48 for DL on June 14th, but I could've miscounted. I don't see why they would be larger than 50 to 55 a day if they do a draw down to just hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. All the hub routes are at or close to pre-COVID frequency level already. So when other hubs are getting service back the next couple of years, I see very few additional flights from those to RDU. Maybe DL has additional plans for RDU, but their mainline fleet size won't be back to 2019 year end size until probably 2024 tor 2025. By early 2023, they'd still be over 100 mainline aircraft down from end of 2018! I think they will be busy adding flights back to NYC and building up SEA/LAX the next couple of years. I don't see how DL will have resources for RDU for several years if they intend to restore its core hubs, become the top dog in LA and compete with AS at SEA. If we fast forward 18 months and DL is basically at its current size - LAS/JAX, what's stopping RDU from entertaining an offer from JetBlue to build a focus city there in exchange for additional gate space?

Does it make sense for JetBlue to make RDU a focus city? That really depends on how their existing projects are working out. It's very rare for them to have an opportunity build up NYC this much. There isn't resources for building up RDU until probably 2023. By second half of 2025, I do expect them to be close to tapping out their growth potentials at NYC/BOS/SoFla/LAX. B6 won't get too many opportunities where new desirable focus city opportunities open up. Can you imagine that pre-COVID, they were thinking of BNA or LAS? If JetBlue planners are planning ahead, they should definitely pick out for a new focus city in the next couple of years and secure enough gate access to at least operate 50 flights a day. To me, the only obvious options are SFO and RDU. I don't think they can try both. It's debatable which one is more preferable. The former improves their network more, but they will never be more than a #3 there. The latter is a smaller market, but could be a lot easier to build something sustainable.

They've added enough destinations out of RDU where they should at least develop some brand recognition over the next couple of years. I expect them to add LGA as part of their NYC buildup and also add DCA (since they will have a lot of unused slots once BOS-DCA goes down to 8 to 10 flights a day). Assuming full recovery of demand from northeast to RDU, they are 30+ flights a day with just those additions. That's a good starting point if they want to build a focus city there. It's a great location as a N/S connecting point along East Coast. There are a lot of markets where DL/AA will not serve if DL decides to draw RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. Places like BDL/PVD/BUF/PWM/CLE/ALB/MSY/PBI/PanHandle could all have enough demand for E90 from RDU and no DL/AA competition. It's not hard for me to envision a 50+ flight station. I don't know the gate situation at RDU. I was told on their thread that there is not many gates available. So if JetBlue does want to try something, it will have to probably make a commitment to grow their operation and setup a base there.

tphuang wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I was not too clear earlier. I am saying there is a decent chance rdu will end up as a 50 to 55 flight station for delta. JetBlue should talk to rdu about establishing a focus city and growth over a 5 year period in exchange for greater gate access. Something that makes sense for them to do over the next 2 years if delta continues to not bring back more destinations and only fly to hubs plus aus and Florida.

Delta is at 53 flights/day scheduled in early June at RDU....

DL will be larger than 50-55 flights/day at RDU.

AA will be at nearly 40 flights/day already in June, not sure there is much wiggle room for a B6 focus city.

I counted 48 for DL on June 14th, but I could've miscounted. I don't see why they would be larger than 50 to 55 a day if they do a draw down to just hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. All the hub routes are at or close to pre-COVID frequency level already. So when other hubs are getting service back the next couple of years, I see very few additional flights from those to RDU. Maybe DL has additional plans for RDU, but their mainline fleet size won't be back to 2019 year end size until probably 2024 tor 2025. By early 2023, they'd still be over 100 mainline aircraft down from end of 2018! I think they will be busy adding flights back to NYC and building up SEA/LAX the next couple of years. I don't see how DL will have resources for RDU for several years if they intend to restore its core hubs, become the top dog in LA and compete with AS at SEA. If we fast forward 18 months and DL is basically at its current size - LAS/JAX, what's stopping RDU from entertaining an offer from JetBlue to build a focus city there in exchange for additional gate space?

Does it make sense for JetBlue to make RDU a focus city? That really depends on how their existing projects are working out. It's very rare for them to have an opportunity build up NYC this much. There isn't resources for building up RDU until probably 2023. By second half of 2025, I do expect them to be close to tapping out their growth potentials at NYC/BOS/SoFla/LAX. B6 won't get too many opportunities where new desirable focus city opportunities open up. Can you imagine that pre-COVID, they were thinking of BNA or LAS? If JetBlue planners are planning ahead, they should definitely pick out for a new focus city in the next couple of years and secure enough gate access to at least operate 50 flights a day. To me, the only obvious options are SFO and RDU. I don't think they can try both. It's debatable which one is more preferable. The former improves their network more, but they will never be more than a #3 there. The latter is a smaller market, but could be a lot easier to build something sustainable.

They've added enough destinations out of RDU where they should at least develop some brand recognition over the next couple of years. I expect them to add LGA as part of their NYC buildup and also add DCA (since they will have a lot of unused slots once BOS-DCA goes down to 8 to 10 flights a day). Assuming full recovery of demand from northeast to RDU, they are 30+ flights a day with just those additions. That's a good starting point if they want to build a focus city there. It's a great location as a N/S connecting point along East Coast. There are a lot of markets where DL/AA will not serve if DL decides to draw RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. Places like BDL/PVD/BUF/PWM/CLE/ALB/MSY/PBI/PanHandle could all have enough demand for E90 from RDU and no DL/AA competition. It's not hard for me to envision a 50+ flight station. I don't know the gate situation at RDU. I was told on their thread that there is not many gates available. So if JetBlue does want to try something, it will have to probably make a commitment to grow their operation and setup a base there.

Not sure why you are under the impression that DL is drawing RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL

DL is flying RDU-JAX right now, and RDU-MIA is slated for June. Plus daily to LAS, and seasonal daily to CUN.

Once business demand returns you will see DL resume even more p2p routes from RDU.

DL still considers RDU a focus city, the odds of them staying at June 2021 levels 2-3 years in the future, are miniscule.

Anyone know if the May schedule is completely done?

Midwestindy wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Delta is at 53 flights/day scheduled in early June at RDU....

DL will be larger than 50-55 flights/day at RDU.

AA will be at nearly 40 flights/day already in June, not sure there is much wiggle room for a B6 focus city.

I counted 48 for DL on June 14th, but I could've miscounted. I don't see why they would be larger than 50 to 55 a day if they do a draw down to just hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. All the hub routes are at or close to pre-COVID frequency level already. So when other hubs are getting service back the next couple of years, I see very few additional flights from those to RDU. Maybe DL has additional plans for RDU, but their mainline fleet size won't be back to 2019 year end size until probably 2024 tor 2025. By early 2023, they'd still be over 100 mainline aircraft down from end of 2018! I think they will be busy adding flights back to NYC and building up SEA/LAX the next couple of years. I don't see how DL will have resources for RDU for several years if they intend to restore its core hubs, become the top dog in LA and compete with AS at SEA. If we fast forward 18 months and DL is basically at its current size - LAS/JAX, what's stopping RDU from entertaining an offer from JetBlue to build a focus city there in exchange for additional gate space?

Does it make sense for JetBlue to make RDU a focus city? That really depends on how their existing projects are working out. It's very rare for them to have an opportunity build up NYC this much. There isn't resources for building up RDU until probably 2023. By second half of 2025, I do expect them to be close to tapping out their growth potentials at NYC/BOS/SoFla/LAX. B6 won't get too many opportunities where new desirable focus city opportunities open up. Can you imagine that pre-COVID, they were thinking of BNA or LAS? If JetBlue planners are planning ahead, they should definitely pick out for a new focus city in the next couple of years and secure enough gate access to at least operate 50 flights a day. To me, the only obvious options are SFO and RDU. I don't think they can try both. It's debatable which one is more preferable. The former improves their network more, but they will never be more than a #3 there. The latter is a smaller market, but could be a lot easier to build something sustainable.

They've added enough destinations out of RDU where they should at least develop some brand recognition over the next couple of years. I expect them to add LGA as part of their NYC buildup and also add DCA (since they will have a lot of unused slots once BOS-DCA goes down to 8 to 10 flights a day). Assuming full recovery of demand from northeast to RDU, they are 30+ flights a day with just those additions. That's a good starting point if they want to build a focus city there. It's a great location as a N/S connecting point along East Coast. There are a lot of markets where DL/AA will not serve if DL decides to draw RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. Places like BDL/PVD/BUF/PWM/CLE/ALB/MSY/PBI/PanHandle could all have enough demand for E90 from RDU and no DL/AA competition. It's not hard for me to envision a 50+ flight station. I don't know the gate situation at RDU. I was told on their thread that there is not many gates available. So if JetBlue does want to try something, it will have to probably make a commitment to grow their operation and setup a base there.

Not sure why you are under the impression that DL is drawing RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL

DL is flying RDU-JAX right now, and RDU-MIA is slated for June. Plus daily to LAS, and seasonal daily to CUN.

Once business demand returns you will see DL resume even more p2p routes from RDU.

DL still considers RDU a focus city, the odds of them staying at June 2021 levels 2-3 years in the future, are miniscule.

They only added JAX/LAS as a retaliation to B6. If they do a draw down, why would those get kept around? DL is going to be at 90% of its 2019 domestic capacity this summer and its mainline fleet size will still be 10% smaller than end of 2018 fleet size by the end of 2022. It's also going to have hire probably 2500 pilots just get back to pre-COVID size after retraining 1600 pilots that had been displaced. There really isn't that many flights it can add over the next 2 years. That was my entire point. Looking at DL's situation for B6 is important. DL's current situation creates opportunities. They cut the head count and fleet size really hard in order to lower cash burn. They are going to pay for it now because those actions limit how quickly they can add back flights in the next few years.

Over the next 2 years, most of the flights they add will be at JFK/LGA(where they need to defend against AA/B6), SEA (where they risk losing out on gate allocation) and LAX (once they finish their terminal work). And they are not exactly going to forget about their core hubs. RDU/CVG are the easiest places for them to not bring back and cut further in order to fund those hub building. If they hit pre-COVID # of flights in 2024 + SEA/LAX/SLC/ATL all have more flights, which of their hubs/focus cities will have fewer flights? I think RDU is a pretty obvious choice to downsize if they need to fund building up other hubs. Airlines for the most part are not going to admit they are drawing something down until they are absolutely sure they will do it.

tphuang wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I counted 48 for DL on June 14th, but I could've miscounted. I don't see why they would be larger than 50 to 55 a day if they do a draw down to just hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. All the hub routes are at or close to pre-COVID frequency level already. So when other hubs are getting service back the next couple of years, I see very few additional flights from those to RDU. Maybe DL has additional plans for RDU, but their mainline fleet size won't be back to 2019 year end size until probably 2024 tor 2025. By early 2023, they'd still be over 100 mainline aircraft down from end of 2018! I think they will be busy adding flights back to NYC and building up SEA/LAX the next couple of years. I don't see how DL will have resources for RDU for several years if they intend to restore its core hubs, become the top dog in LA and compete with AS at SEA. If we fast forward 18 months and DL is basically at its current size - LAS/JAX, what's stopping RDU from entertaining an offer from JetBlue to build a focus city there in exchange for additional gate space?

Does it make sense for JetBlue to make RDU a focus city? That really depends on how their existing projects are working out. It's very rare for them to have an opportunity build up NYC this much. There isn't resources for building up RDU until probably 2023. By second half of 2025, I do expect them to be close to tapping out their growth potentials at NYC/BOS/SoFla/LAX. B6 won't get too many opportunities where new desirable focus city opportunities open up. Can you imagine that pre-COVID, they were thinking of BNA or LAS? If JetBlue planners are planning ahead, they should definitely pick out for a new focus city in the next couple of years and secure enough gate access to at least operate 50 flights a day. To me, the only obvious options are SFO and RDU. I don't think they can try both. It's debatable which one is more preferable. The former improves their network more, but they will never be more than a #3 there. The latter is a smaller market, but could be a lot easier to build something sustainable.

They've added enough destinations out of RDU where they should at least develop some brand recognition over the next couple of years. I expect them to add LGA as part of their NYC buildup and also add DCA (since they will have a lot of unused slots once BOS-DCA goes down to 8 to 10 flights a day). Assuming full recovery of demand from northeast to RDU, they are 30+ flights a day with just those additions. That's a good starting point if they want to build a focus city there. It's a great location as a N/S connecting point along East Coast. There are a lot of markets where DL/AA will not serve if DL decides to draw RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. Places like BDL/PVD/BUF/PWM/CLE/ALB/MSY/PBI/PanHandle could all have enough demand for E90 from RDU and no DL/AA competition. It's not hard for me to envision a 50+ flight station. I don't know the gate situation at RDU. I was told on their thread that there is not many gates available. So if JetBlue does want to try something, it will have to probably make a commitment to grow their operation and setup a base there.

Not sure why you are under the impression that DL is drawing RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL

DL is flying RDU-JAX right now, and RDU-MIA is slated for June. Plus daily to LAS, and seasonal daily to CUN.

Once business demand returns you will see DL resume even more p2p routes from RDU.

DL still considers RDU a focus city, the odds of them staying at June 2021 levels 2-3 years in the future, are miniscule.

They only added JAX/LAS as a retaliation to B6. If they do a draw down, why would those get kept around? DL is going to be at 90% of its 2019 domestic capacity this summer and its mainline fleet size will still be 10% smaller than end of 2018 fleet size by the end of 2022. It's also going to have hire probably 2500 pilots just get back to pre-COVID size after retraining 1600 pilots that had been displaced. There really isn't that many flights it can add over the next 2 years. That was my entire point. Looking at DL's situation for B6 is important. DL's current situation creates opportunities. They cut the head count and fleet size really hard in order to lower cash burn. They are going to pay for it now because those actions limit how quickly they can add back flights in the next few years.

Over the next 2 years, most of the flights they add will be at JFK/LGA(where they need to defend against AA/B6), SEA (where they risk losing out on gate allocation) and LAX (once they finish their terminal work). And they are not exactly going to forget about their core hubs. RDU/CVG are the easiest places for them to not bring back and cut further in order to fund those hub building. If they hit pre-COVID # of flights in 2024 + SEA/LAX/SLC/ATL all have more flights, which of their hubs/focus cities will have fewer flights? I think RDU is a pretty obvious choice to downsize if they need to fund building up other hubs. Airlines for the most part are not going to admit they are drawing something down until they are absolutely sure they will do it.

I’ve just been reading these threads you post in and laugh. You think that B6 is going to just create a focus city everywhere (RDU, EWR, LAX, SFO- in addition to BOS, JFK, FLL and MCO)- plus be a big player in the transatlantic market... you think that every legacy carrier relevant in these cities is just going to wind down and B6 is going to step in. I can’t wait to come back here in a year and blast you. I’ve been tracking your posts so I can come back and call you out. You’ve made quite a few claims that have not materialized in any way, shape or form.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Not sure why you are under the impression that DL is drawing RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL

DL is flying RDU-JAX right now, and RDU-MIA is slated for June. Plus daily to LAS, and seasonal daily to CUN.

Once business demand returns you will see DL resume even more p2p routes from RDU.

DL still considers RDU a focus city, the odds of them staying at June 2021 levels 2-3 years in the future, are miniscule.

They only added JAX/LAS as a retaliation to B6. If they do a draw down, why would those get kept around? DL is going to be at 90% of its 2019 domestic capacity this summer and its mainline fleet size will still be 10% smaller than end of 2018 fleet size by the end of 2022. It's also going to have hire probably 2500 pilots just get back to pre-COVID size after retraining 1600 pilots that had been displaced. There really isn't that many flights it can add over the next 2 years. That was my entire point. Looking at DL's situation for B6 is important. DL's current situation creates opportunities. They cut the head count and fleet size really hard in order to lower cash burn. They are going to pay for it now because those actions limit how quickly they can add back flights in the next few years.

Over the next 2 years, most of the flights they add will be at JFK/LGA(where they need to defend against AA/B6), SEA (where they risk losing out on gate allocation) and LAX (once they finish their terminal work). And they are not exactly going to forget about their core hubs. RDU/CVG are the easiest places for them to not bring back and cut further in order to fund those hub building. If they hit pre-COVID # of flights in 2024 + SEA/LAX/SLC/ATL all have more flights, which of their hubs/focus cities will have fewer flights? I think RDU is a pretty obvious choice to downsize if they need to fund building up other hubs. Airlines for the most part are not going to admit they are drawing something down until they are absolutely sure they will do it.

I’ve just been reading these threads you post in and laugh. You think that B6 is going to just create a focus city everywhere (RDU, EWR, LAX, SFO- in addition to BOS, JFK, FLL and MCO)- plus be a big player in the transatlantic market... you think that every legacy carrier relevant in these cities is just going to wind down and B6 is going to step in. I can’t wait to come back here in a year and blast you. I’ve been tracking your posts so I can come back and call you out. You’ve made quite a few claims that have not materialized in any way, shape or form.

See they actually have created a focus city at EWR and LAX.

They have also expanded pretty rapidly in SFO and RDU.

What is your argument?

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:

I’ve just been reading these threads you post in and laugh. You think that B6 is going to just create a focus city everywhere (RDU, EWR, LAX, SFO- in addition to BOS, JFK, FLL and MCO)- plus be a big player in the transatlantic market... you think that every legacy carrier relevant in these cities is just going to wind down and B6 is going to step in. I can’t wait to come back here in a year and blast you. I’ve been tracking your posts so I can come back and call you out. You’ve made quite a few claims that have not materialized in any way, shape or form.

Well, I just posted what I think will happen over the next 2 to 4 years. It doesn't look like you've read what I wrote. If you did, you will see that I believe MCO will be on hiatus for a long time and that they'd be able to have at most one new focus city between RDU and SFO. Of course if I make bunch of predictions, not all of them are going to work out. But the reality is that EWR is already their 4th large station (and not that far away from being their 3rd largest) and LAX is already a focus city (and their 5th largest operation in ASM). I'm not really sure what your point is?

Aside from EWR, all the target focus city sizes are actually taken from what JetBlue told their employees internally or what they told investors publicly. I don't see why they are particularly controversial.

JetBlue made a conscious decision to not reduce frontline headcount or retire any aircraft during the pandemic. It's now in a position to quickly recover to pre-COVID size and grow further. Things have entirely opened up for them because WN is focused in middle of the country, UA is taking its time with coastal hubs, AA is their partner and DL is more focused on Western part of the country

But feel free to call out where i got wrong. I'm sure there are going to be claims that I make that are not going to happen.

Jetblue has been granted a Foreign Carrier Permit by the UK CAA -

https://www.caa.co.uk/News/UK-Civil-Avi ... r-JetBlue/

On twitter in response, Jetblue said "You might say we’re "chuffed to bits" to start hopping across the pond later this year. See you soon!"

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Not sure why you are under the impression that DL is drawing RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL

DL is flying RDU-JAX right now, and RDU-MIA is slated for June. Plus daily to LAS, and seasonal daily to CUN.

Once business demand returns you will see DL resume even more p2p routes from RDU.

DL still considers RDU a focus city, the odds of them staying at June 2021 levels 2-3 years in the future, are miniscule.

They only added JAX/LAS as a retaliation to B6. If they do a draw down, why would those get kept around? DL is going to be at 90% of its 2019 domestic capacity this summer and its mainline fleet size will still be 10% smaller than end of 2018 fleet size by the end of 2022. It's also going to have hire probably 2500 pilots just get back to pre-COVID size after retraining 1600 pilots that had been displaced. There really isn't that many flights it can add over the next 2 years. That was my entire point. Looking at DL's situation for B6 is important. DL's current situation creates opportunities. They cut the head count and fleet size really hard in order to lower cash burn. They are going to pay for it now because those actions limit how quickly they can add back flights in the next few years.

Over the next 2 years, most of the flights they add will be at JFK/LGA(where they need to defend against AA/B6), SEA (where they risk losing out on gate allocation) and LAX (once they finish their terminal work). And they are not exactly going to forget about their core hubs. RDU/CVG are the easiest places for them to not bring back and cut further in order to fund those hub building. If they hit pre-COVID # of flights in 2024 + SEA/LAX/SLC/ATL all have more flights, which of their hubs/focus cities will have fewer flights? I think RDU is a pretty obvious choice to downsize if they need to fund building up other hubs. Airlines for the most part are not going to admit they are drawing something down until they are absolutely sure they will do it.

I’ve just been reading these threads you post in and laugh. You think that B6 is going to just create a focus city everywhere (RDU, EWR, LAX, SFO- in addition to BOS, JFK, FLL and MCO)- plus be a big player in the transatlantic market... you think that every legacy carrier relevant in these cities is just going to wind down and B6 is going to step in. I can’t wait to come back here in a year and blast you. I’ve been tracking your posts so I can come back and call you out. You’ve made quite a few claims that have not materialized in any way, shape or form.

A year? B6 has only a handful of planes coming in the next year—I don’t think a year will really be a good timeframe to measure his predictions. Also, I haven’t seen tphuang be very far off in many of his predictions, and it seems each year he talks about what he got wrong and right. And most of his predictions are for the next several years, so I don’t know what coming back in a year will prove. Your tone seems pretty harsh, especially since it is in response only to an enthusiast’s network predictions. Your obsession with him is weird (wanting “to blast” someone on a forum? Lol ok). And I think it was pointed out already, but EWR and LAX are already focus cities. So in your list, that leaves RDU and SFO, which are very much TBD (and aren’t the only places being looked at for future B6 focus cities). But as far as the next year, and the next several after that, I look forward to your B6 network analysis and predictions.

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Not sure why you are under the impression that DL is drawing RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL

DL is flying RDU-JAX right now, and RDU-MIA is slated for June. Plus daily to LAS, and seasonal daily to CUN.

Once business demand returns you will see DL resume even more p2p routes from RDU.

DL still considers RDU a focus city, the odds of them staying at June 2021 levels 2-3 years in the future, are miniscule.

They only added JAX/LAS as a retaliation to B6. If they do a draw down, why would those get kept around? DL is going to be at 90% of its 2019 domestic capacity this summer and its mainline fleet size will still be 10% smaller than end of 2018 fleet size by the end of 2022. It's also going to have hire probably 2500 pilots just get back to pre-COVID size after retraining 1600 pilots that had been displaced. There really isn't that many flights it can add over the next 2 years. That was my entire point. Looking at DL's situation for B6 is important. DL's current situation creates opportunities. They cut the head count and fleet size really hard in order to lower cash burn. They are going to pay for it now because those actions limit how quickly they can add back flights in the next few years.

Over the next 2 years, most of the flights they add will be at JFK/LGA(where they need to defend against AA/B6), SEA (where they risk losing out on gate allocation) and LAX (once they finish their terminal work). And they are not exactly going to forget about their core hubs. RDU/CVG are the easiest places for them to not bring back and cut further in order to fund those hub building. If they hit pre-COVID # of flights in 2024 + SEA/LAX/SLC/ATL all have more flights, which of their hubs/focus cities will have fewer flights? I think RDU is a pretty obvious choice to downsize if they need to fund building up other hubs. Airlines for the most part are not going to admit they are drawing something down until they are absolutely sure they will do it.

I’ve just been reading these threads you post in and laugh. You think that B6 is going to just create a focus city everywhere (RDU, EWR, LAX, SFO- in addition to BOS, JFK, FLL and MCO)- plus be a big player in the transatlantic market... you think that every legacy carrier relevant in these cities is just going to wind down and B6 is going to step in. I can’t wait to come back here in a year and blast you. I’ve been tracking your posts so I can come back and call you out. You’ve made quite a few claims that have not materialized in any way, shape or form.

B6 already have focus cities at LAX and EWR. And it isn't a stretch to believe SFO and RDU focus cities are possible when they've added routes there in virtually every route announcement in 2020, but fleet-wise, there will be some significant resource investment needed for that to happen. Luckily for you, tphuang has never said that B6 will have a bustling LAX/SFO/RDU focus city by next year (B6 are already #2 at EWR behind UA, FYI). For crying out loud, he's been saying that significant LAX expansion won't take place until 2023 and MCO is likely to only come back to its pre-COVID size if that. And I agree with others who think that it's weird that you'll be waiting around to "blast" someone on an online forum. Good grief.

tphuang wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I counted 48 for DL on June 14th, but I could've miscounted. I don't see why they would be larger than 50 to 55 a day if they do a draw down to just hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. All the hub routes are at or close to pre-COVID frequency level already. So when other hubs are getting service back the next couple of years, I see very few additional flights from those to RDU. Maybe DL has additional plans for RDU, but their mainline fleet size won't be back to 2019 year end size until probably 2024 tor 2025. By early 2023, they'd still be over 100 mainline aircraft down from end of 2018! I think they will be busy adding flights back to NYC and building up SEA/LAX the next couple of years. I don't see how DL will have resources for RDU for several years if they intend to restore its core hubs, become the top dog in LA and compete with AS at SEA. If we fast forward 18 months and DL is basically at its current size - LAS/JAX, what's stopping RDU from entertaining an offer from JetBlue to build a focus city there in exchange for additional gate space?

Does it make sense for JetBlue to make RDU a focus city? That really depends on how their existing projects are working out. It's very rare for them to have an opportunity build up NYC this much. There isn't resources for building up RDU until probably 2023. By second half of 2025, I do expect them to be close to tapping out their growth potentials at NYC/BOS/SoFla/LAX. B6 won't get too many opportunities where new desirable focus city opportunities open up. Can you imagine that pre-COVID, they were thinking of BNA or LAS? If JetBlue planners are planning ahead, they should definitely pick out for a new focus city in the next couple of years and secure enough gate access to at least operate 50 flights a day. To me, the only obvious options are SFO and RDU. I don't think they can try both. It's debatable which one is more preferable. The former improves their network more, but they will never be more than a #3 there. The latter is a smaller market, but could be a lot easier to build something sustainable.

They've added enough destinations out of RDU where they should at least develop some brand recognition over the next couple of years. I expect them to add LGA as part of their NYC buildup and also add DCA (since they will have a lot of unused slots once BOS-DCA goes down to 8 to 10 flights a day). Assuming full recovery of demand from northeast to RDU, they are 30+ flights a day with just those additions. That's a good starting point if they want to build a focus city there. It's a great location as a N/S connecting point along East Coast. There are a lot of markets where DL/AA will not serve if DL decides to draw RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL. Places like BDL/PVD/BUF/PWM/CLE/ALB/MSY/PBI/PanHandle could all have enough demand for E90 from RDU and no DL/AA competition. It's not hard for me to envision a 50+ flight station. I don't know the gate situation at RDU. I was told on their thread that there is not many gates available. So if JetBlue does want to try something, it will have to probably make a commitment to grow their operation and setup a base there.

Not sure why you are under the impression that DL is drawing RDU down to hubs + AUS/MCO/TPA/FLL

DL is flying RDU-JAX right now, and RDU-MIA is slated for June. Plus daily to LAS, and seasonal daily to CUN.

Once business demand returns you will see DL resume even more p2p routes from RDU.

DL still considers RDU a focus city, the odds of them staying at June 2021 levels 2-3 years in the future, are miniscule.

They only added JAX/LAS as a retaliation to B6. If they do a draw down, why would those get kept around? DL is going to be at 90% of its 2019 domestic capacity this summer and its mainline fleet size will still be 10% smaller than end of 2018 fleet size by the end of 2022. It's also going to have hire probably 2500 pilots just get back to pre-COVID size after retraining 1600 pilots that had been displaced. There really isn't that many flights it can add over the next 2 years. That was my entire point. Looking at DL's situation for B6 is important. DL's current situation creates opportunities. They cut the head count and fleet size really hard in order to lower cash burn. They are going to pay for it now because those actions limit how quickly they can add back flights in the next few years.

Over the next 2 years, most of the flights they add will be at JFK/LGA(where they need to defend against AA/B6), SEA (where they risk losing out on gate allocation) and LAX (once they finish their terminal work). And they are not exactly going to forget about their core hubs. RDU/CVG are the easiest places for them to not bring back and cut further in order to fund those hub building. If they hit pre-COVID # of flights in 2024 + SEA/LAX/SLC/ATL all have more flights, which of their hubs/focus cities will have fewer flights? I think RDU is a pretty obvious choice to downsize if they need to fund building up other hubs. Airlines for the most part are not going to admit they are drawing something down until they are absolutely sure they will do it.

So if DL only added JAX/LAS in retaliation to B6 (DL LAS/JAX-RDU were pre-covid routes btw), then that would indicate the opposite of what you are saying. DL does intend to remain strong in RDU, retaliation against new entrants indicates it is a market you intend to remain dominant in.

If DL didn't intend to return more p2p to RDU, then B6 on routes like LAS/JAX wouldn't matter at all, as they are not at all core to their network.

Most of the RDU flying is DL connection anyway, so DL's mainline fleet is not that relevant to RDU. Remember the regional flying isn't like mainline, certain regionals are assigned to certain parts of the country for DL. RDU is YX heavy, so it's not like DL can pluck YX RDU flying and move it to SEA, not that they would want to anyway.

In fairness:

B6 parted with a lot of Frontline crewmembers

Several of their aircraft will remain parked per the company

EWR and LAX are growth spots

I have never heard anything internally or externally about RDU or SFO beyond this thread

Many of these routes that are point to point are being added as leisure routes to capitalize on an early recovery.

Just because they’re adding San Francisco and Nashville to Cancun doesn’t mean that San Francisco or Nashville are going to be focus cities.

It means that they are desperate for cash, they have planes sitting around, they have existing infrastructure in place at these cities, And they are sitting in a conference room with a dartboard wondering where they can make any money in a very tough environment

A couple of weeks ago, it was pointed out to me that my predictions were not bound to reality. So based on what I gleaned from B6 moves, their resumption of hiring (http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler.com ... -pandemic/), fleet additions/storage/retirement, I'm trying to show what I think is an optimistic but workable progression in building up the opportunities they have. They have lost some front line crewmembers, but not anywhere near the reductions seen with DL, who slashed its payroll by 1/3 and had 25 to 30% of its pilots either leave or displaced. There is simply no quick way for an airline with that many fleet types to recover its capacity after that. For all my complaints about B6 management being conservative and cheap pre-COVID, they certainly showed me plenty of aggressiveness this past year with their route additions, keeping relatively high headcount and continued fleet additions.

I picked out DL in my post, because they were/are B6's biggest roadblock pre and post pandemic. According to that other thread, their mainline won't recover to pre-COVID size for a long time. If you read further down, you'd see that their RJ fleet is down even more viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1459291&start=100#p22732809. The regional airlines also have to keep their capex down in the next couple of years. As a result of this, they will simply have fewer aircraft in service for many years ahead of us. Even if they get back to 2019 capacity by 2023, they will take longer to get back to the 6000 daily flights they were doing pre-COVID. Their increased focus in SEA and LAX creates great opportunities for JetBlue. If we factor all of this in + partnership with AA, B6 would have time to finish its NYC buildup and also reach BOS200 before they face DL threat in Boston again. Depending on DL's willingness to continue building in other part of the country, they may simply not see the need to add anything more at RDU for 2 or 3 years. I see that as a major opportunity.

B6 will be very busy with NYC for the next 2 years and very busy with BOS/SoFla/LAX for the 2 years after that. There really won't be that much resource for P2P flying or building up a new focus city. Having said that, it would shock me if they are not planning out where their next focus city will be. I am definitely biased toward RDU and SFO, because I saw them as good opportunities before those new routes were ever announced. I would say evidences show that they are at least thinking in that direction. They added 7 more routes at RDU even after RDU-RSW had one of the lowest LF in the system and chopping RDU-CUN/MBJ to 1x weekly or no flight over Q4. If they were just trying to make money, it didn't make sense to add that many routes out of RDU. Similarly at SFO, they added a couple of more routes even after SFO-EWR/LAX/MCO/CUN all did not have much demand. I do think it's a good idea for them to get gates at an airport they want to build up while legacies are still recovering their more core hubs.

[quote="jfklganyc"]In

Several of their aircraft will remain parked per the company


I think the # is around 10-12 320s that have expensive mx in the near future ( my guess would be D checks but maybe something else as well like cabin refresh) plus the fact that there was a plan pre-COVID of some 320 retirements this year. That is why they’re spending the summer in the desert.

filler