Jetblue Network Thread - 2021

qf789 · Thu Dec 31, 2020 1:57 pm

Welcome to Jetblue Network Thread - 2021. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437897

737307 · Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:53 pm

Yay, I'm the first to post! Any idea about the load factor over the Thanksgiving Holidays?

tphuang · Thu Dec 31, 2020 6:41 pm

Alright New Years. A few items that I hope will get answered this year:

What does their partnership with AA turn out to be? When does codesharing start and how useful will their network be to the other airline's ff? Will this finally address their IRROPS problems? Will AA actually launch those JFK international flights? Will the agreement expand beyond NYC/Boston to include more cities?

AS just had a great deal in picking up additional MAX for no additional payments in 2021. While A220 is not in as desperate a situation as MAX, I wonder if JetBlue can get some additional immediate deliveries of A220 for minimal additional capex in 2021/2022. Will they be able to score additional A220 deliveries? What happens to E90? Will it actually be 1 for 1 replacement or will E90 remain in service for a little while longer?

The biggest question for me is what they do at EWR? EWR's new terminal 1 is opening early 2022 with 21 gates. It looks like a major upgrade over T-A right now and will probably be the most convenient airport for driving to and taxi drop-off/pickup. If PATH extension gets built in a few years, this would be the most convenient terminal to get to from Manhattan via public transportation. During rush hours, this would also be faster than taking a cab to LGA. Along with population movement in NY and other dynamics we've talked about, this could make EWR the preferred airport for more New Yorkers. JetBlue has some time this year to figure out whether or not EWR will be the preferred domestic airport for both within and beyond perimeter flights for lower/midtown Manhattan business travelers. If they decide EWR is that important, what is their ambition at EWR and how do they get there?

I've already raised the idea of exchanging gates/slots at JFK with UA for gates at EWR. They can try to do that also with other airlines. Other things they can try include proposing to add flights like EWR-BUF/SYR/ROC or ACY/TTN-FLL to gain political favors. They can partly fund the T-1 extension project in exchange for additional gates. If that means pausing the JFK T-6/7 project until 2023, then so be it. Maybe that will allow NK/F9 to stay in T-B for a few more years while the extension gets built. International flying is down for many years. There is no reason B cannot handle DL/NK/F9 staying there for a few years. They can go to AA and sublease as many gates as they can or make an agreement to use AA gates during downtime. AA is probably going to be under 20 flights a day out of EWR for a while. IIRC, B6 will be moving (with AC) into the 21 gates main pier before other airlines. Try to take over as many of those gates as possible. If they can get preferential usage over 16 gates, they should. That would require them adding a lot of routes from the second half of 2021 to first half of 2022. The remaining 12 gates + a couple of true CUTE gates in the main pier should be able to handle the gate requirements of UA/AA/AS.

Also, what are they doing in South Florida? Back in April, I anticipated that FLL and MCO would take a few years to recover to pre-pandemic capacity. It turns out that I was quite wrong about FLL at least. Demand out of South Florida has bounced back faster than anywhere else in their network. This has allowed them to restore 2/3 of their pre-pandemic schedule by Nov/Dec. The addition of MIA is part of their overall South Florida strategy. If we look at FLL departures, NK is already at their pre-pandemic schedule on some days while WN has completely fallen off the cliff. No major WN station has seen as much reduction as FLL. B6 faces a NK problem in FLL. They've talked about turning FLL into a more connection focused 130 flight station. They have already acquired enough gates to run that operation. As they add more markets in the middle of the country and connect more dots, are they able to beyond that? If WN permanently reduces FLL to a 60 to 70 flight station, they don't need all the gates they currently have access to. They might be willing to sublease gates to NK or B6. Will B6 be able to sublease any of those gates? They'd need more space/flights in FLL to compete in the area. With the continued population movement from NE to South Florida, the demand should continue to rapidly grow in the region.

My other question is what are they going to do in RDU? It seems like JetBlue is quite eager to expand there to fill the vacuum left by DL cuts. While RDU is not constrained as major airports, it was still facing constraints prior to the pandemic. I like the fact that they have moved in so quickly with new route announcements. In what must be a tough time for RDAA, these moves could be generating some good will for JetBlue. Could they secure enough real estate in gates and other spaces to launch a focus city that eventually grow to over 80 flights a day?

jfklganyc · Thu Dec 31, 2020 11:25 pm

2021 is a recovery year and is showing some promising signs at B6. Xmas holidays were good (relatively speaking) and bookings towards Spring looks promising.

220 comes aboard slowly.

LR comes online.

London joins network.

LAX.

AA.

Decision on Future HQ also due this year.

Tack · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:02 am

tphuang wrote:
Alright New Years. A few items that I hope will get answered this year:

What does their partnership with AA turn out to be? When does codesharing start and how useful will their network be to the other airline's ff? Will this finally address their IRROPS problems? Will AA actually launch those JFK international flights? Will the agreement expand beyond NYC/Boston to include more cities?

AS just had a great deal in picking up additional MAX for no additional payments in 2021. While A220 is not in as desperate a situation as MAX, I wonder if JetBlue can get some additional immediate deliveries of A220 for minimal additional capex in 2021/2022. Will they be able to score additional A220 deliveries? What happens to E90? Will it actually be 1 for 1 replacement or will E90 remain in service for a little while longer?

The biggest question for me is what they do at EWR? EWR's new terminal 1 is opening early 2022 with 21 gates. It looks like a major upgrade over T-A right now and will probably be the most convenient airport for driving to and taxi drop-off/pickup. If PATH extension gets built in a few years, this would be the most convenient terminal to get to from Manhattan via public transportation. During rush hours, this would also be faster than taking a cab to LGA. Along with population movement in NY and other dynamics we've talked about, this could make EWR the preferred airport for more New Yorkers. JetBlue has some time this year to figure out whether or not EWR will be the preferred domestic airport for both within and beyond perimeter flights for lower/midtown Manhattan business travelers. If they decide EWR is that important, what is their ambition at EWR and how do they get there?

I've already raised the idea of exchanging gates/slots at JFK with UA for gates at EWR. They can try to do that also with other airlines. Other things they can try include proposing to add flights like EWR-BUF/SYR/ROC or ACY/TTN-FLL to gain political favors. They can partly fund the T-1 extension project in exchange for additional gates. If that means pausing the JFK T-6/7 project until 2023, then so be it. Maybe that will allow NK/F9 to stay in T-B for a few more years while the extension gets built. International flying is down for many years. There is no reason B cannot handle DL/NK/F9 staying there for a few years. They can go to AA and sublease as many gates as they can or make an agreement to use AA gates during downtime. AA is probably going to be under 20 flights a day out of EWR for a while. IIRC, B6 will be moving (with AC) into the 21 gates main pier before other airlines. Try to take over as many of those gates as possible. If they can get preferential usage over 16 gates, they should. That would require them adding a lot of routes from the second half of 2021 to first half of 2022. The remaining 12 gates + a couple of true CUTE gates in the main pier should be able to handle the gate requirements of UA/AA/AS.

Also, what are they doing in South Florida? Back in April, I anticipated that FLL and MCO would take a few years to recover to pre-pandemic capacity. It turns out that I was quite wrong about FLL at least. Demand out of South Florida has bounced back faster than anywhere else in their network. This has allowed them to restore 2/3 of their pre-pandemic schedule by Nov/Dec. The addition of MIA is part of their overall South Florida strategy. If we look at FLL departures, NK is already at their pre-pandemic schedule on some days while WN has completely fallen off the cliff. No major WN station has seen as much reduction as FLL. B6 faces a NK problem in FLL. They've talked about turning FLL into a more connection focused 130 flight station. They have already acquired enough gates to run that operation. As they add more markets in the middle of the country and connect more dots, are they able to beyond that? If WN permanently reduces FLL to a 60 to 70 flight station, they don't need all the gates they currently have access to. They might be willing to sublease gates to NK or B6. Will B6 be able to sublease any of those gates? They'd need more space/flights in FLL to compete in the area. With the continued population movement from NE to South Florida, the demand should continue to rapidly grow in the region.

My other question is what are they going to do in RDU? It seems like JetBlue is quite eager to expand there to fill the vacuum left by DL cuts. While RDU is not constrained as major airports, it was still facing constraints prior to the pandemic. I like the fact that they have moved in so quickly with new route announcements. In what must be a tough time for RDAA, these moves could be generating some good will for JetBlue. Could they secure enough real estate in gates and other spaces to launch a focus city that eventually grow to over 80 flights a day?

The partnership with AA is the biggest item that I have interest in. As an AA EP I’m fiercely loyal to AA and it’s partners. The AS partnership has added value for me on the west coast. The B6 partnership and its award earnings need to announced soon. I’m purchasing much of my spring flying in January but until it’s announced, my bookings to the east coast can’t go to B6, and I’m wanting to give them some $$. BTW, HAPPY NEW YEAR! Here is to a better 2021 and a surprise new OW partnership with AS/AA/B6! ( A man can dream ). Cheers!

Blerg · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:49 am

jfklganyc wrote:
2021 is a recovery year and is showing some promising signs at B6. Xmas holidays were good (relatively speaking) and bookings towards Spring looks promising.

220 comes aboard slowly.

LR comes online.

London joins network.

LAX.

AA.

Decision on Future HQ also due this year.

Do we know when London is being launched and from where? I suppose they will try to get LHR slots?

As for the HQ, are they thinking of leaving New York?

tphuang · Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:20 pm

I'm assuming they are still trying to get LHR slots. It's probably not that hard for them to lease slots for this year, since a lot of airlines have suspended service. Not sure how many slots they lease for longer term. Maybe brexit will reduce demand from some of the European carriers to LHR.

I guess it's always wishful thinking that JetBlue would keep HQ in LIC long term. They've been expanding their Orlando space. Although if they move HQ to Florida, I'm hoping more for South Florida. Maybe that can at least help their focus city there.

A220 news release http://blueir.investproductions.com/inv ... -203026548
-3350 nm range
- Excellent economics on short, medium and transcon routes
- 30% lower direct cost per seat vs E90 (I think trip cost for A220 and E90 about same, but A220 has 40 more seats)
- 40% lower cost per seat in maintenance cost vs E90 (due to improved reliability and longer maintenance intervals)

Seems to me A220 is ideal for their LAX network once BOS has enough of them.

trueblew · Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:35 pm

Blerg wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
2021 is a recovery year and is showing some promising signs at B6. Xmas holidays were good (relatively speaking) and bookings towards Spring looks promising.

220 comes aboard slowly.

LR comes online.

London joins network.

LAX.

AA.

Decision on Future HQ also due this year.

Do we know when London is being launched and from where? I suppose they will try to get LHR slots?

As for the HQ, are they thinking of leaving New York?

My guess is they will put that out there as a possibility (Orlando most likely) in order to drive a bargain or some favors from NY politicians (but not AOC or Michael Gianaris...ha!), end up keeping a relatively small NYC HQ while moving a lot of support functions to the expanding Orlando campus.

MIflyer12 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 1:44 pm

Blerg wrote:
Do we know when London is being launched and from where? I suppose they will try to get LHR slots?

Earlier this week, reports from Airport Coordination Limited -- the company that manages slot allocations for the London airports -- showed that JetBlue has received slots for up to three daily roundtrips to London. However, they are spread across two airports.

At Gatwick Airport, JetBlue received 14 weekly slots -- half of what it had requested. That's enough to operate one daily roundtrip, which it will use to fly to New York's JFK Airport. JetBlue also landed all 28 weekly slots it requested at London Stansted Airport, which it will use for up to two daily roundtrips to Boston.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/ ... expansion/

It's probably fair to assume they'll keep trying for LHR. As for actually paying market prices for LHR slots instead of relying on slot awards, I won't predict.

flymco753 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:54 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright New Years. A few items that I hope will get answered this year:

What does their partnership with AA turn out to be? When does codesharing start and how useful will their network be to the other airline's ff? Will this finally address their IRROPS problems? Will AA actually launch those JFK international flights? Will the agreement expand beyond NYC/Boston to include more cities?

AS just had a great deal in picking up additional MAX for no additional payments in 2021. While A220 is not in as desperate a situation as MAX, I wonder if JetBlue can get some additional immediate deliveries of A220 for minimal additional capex in 2021/2022. Will they be able to score additional A220 deliveries? What happens to E90? Will it actually be 1 for 1 replacement or will E90 remain in service for a little while longer?

The biggest question for me is what they do at EWR? EWR's new terminal 1 is opening early 2022 with 21 gates. It looks like a major upgrade over T-A right now and will probably be the most convenient airport for driving to and taxi drop-off/pickup. If PATH extension gets built in a few years, this would be the most convenient terminal to get to from Manhattan via public transportation. During rush hours, this would also be faster than taking a cab to LGA. Along with population movement in NY and other dynamics we've talked about, this could make EWR the preferred airport for more New Yorkers. JetBlue has some time this year to figure out whether or not EWR will be the preferred domestic airport for both within and beyond perimeter flights for lower/midtown Manhattan business travelers. If they decide EWR is that important, what is their ambition at EWR and how do they get there?

I've already raised the idea of exchanging gates/slots at JFK with UA for gates at EWR. They can try to do that also with other airlines. Other things they can try include proposing to add flights like EWR-BUF/SYR/ROC or ACY/TTN-FLL to gain political favors. They can partly fund the T-1 extension project in exchange for additional gates. If that means pausing the JFK T-6/7 project until 2023, then so be it. Maybe that will allow NK/F9 to stay in T-B for a few more years while the extension gets built. International flying is down for many years. There is no reason B cannot handle DL/NK/F9 staying there for a few years. They can go to AA and sublease as many gates as they can or make an agreement to use AA gates during downtime. AA is probably going to be under 20 flights a day out of EWR for a while. IIRC, B6 will be moving (with AC) into the 21 gates main pier before other airlines. Try to take over as many of those gates as possible. If they can get preferential usage over 16 gates, they should. That would require them adding a lot of routes from the second half of 2021 to first half of 2022. The remaining 12 gates + a couple of true CUTE gates in the main pier should be able to handle the gate requirements of UA/AA/AS.

Also, what are they doing in South Florida? Back in April, I anticipated that FLL and MCO would take a few years to recover to pre-pandemic capacity. It turns out that I was quite wrong about FLL at least. Demand out of South Florida has bounced back faster than anywhere else in their network. This has allowed them to restore 2/3 of their pre-pandemic schedule by Nov/Dec. The addition of MIA is part of their overall South Florida strategy. If we look at FLL departures, NK is already at their pre-pandemic schedule on some days while WN has completely fallen off the cliff. No major WN station has seen as much reduction as FLL. B6 faces a NK problem in FLL. They've talked about turning FLL into a more connection focused 130 flight station. They have already acquired enough gates to run that operation. As they add more markets in the middle of the country and connect more dots, are they able to beyond that? If WN permanently reduces FLL to a 60 to 70 flight station, they don't need all the gates they currently have access to. They might be willing to sublease gates to NK or B6. Will B6 be able to sublease any of those gates? They'd need more space/flights in FLL to compete in the area. With the continued population movement from NE to South Florida, the demand should continue to rapidly grow in the region.

My other question is what are they going to do in RDU? It seems like JetBlue is quite eager to expand there to fill the vacuum left by DL cuts. While RDU is not constrained as major airports, it was still facing constraints prior to the pandemic. I like the fact that they have moved in so quickly with new route announcements. In what must be a tough time for RDAA, these moves could be generating some good will for JetBlue. Could they secure enough real estate in gates and other spaces to launch a focus city that eventually grow to over 80 flights a day?

Do you think that B6 would add DTW-LAX? A daily A320 doesn't seem unreasonable especially since DL & NK yield well.

Brickell305 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:06 pm

trueblew wrote:
Blerg wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
2021 is a recovery year and is showing some promising signs at B6. Xmas holidays were good (relatively speaking) and bookings towards Spring looks promising.

220 comes aboard slowly.

LR comes online.

London joins network.

LAX.

AA.

Decision on Future HQ also due this year.

Do we know when London is being launched and from where? I suppose they will try to get LHR slots?

As for the HQ, are they thinking of leaving New York?

My guess is they will put that out there as a possibility (Orlando most likely) in order to drive a bargain or some favors from NY politicians (but not AOC or Michael Gianaris...ha!), end up keeping a relatively small NYC HQ while moving a lot of support functions to the expanding Orlando campus.

I doubt they move from NY but if they do move to Florida, Fort Lauderdale seems much more likely.

trueblew · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:38 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
trueblew wrote:
Blerg wrote:

Do we know when London is being launched and from where? I suppose they will try to get LHR slots?

As for the HQ, are they thinking of leaving New York?

My guess is they will put that out there as a possibility (Orlando most likely) in order to drive a bargain or some favors from NY politicians (but not AOC or Michael Gianaris...ha!), end up keeping a relatively small NYC HQ while moving a lot of support functions to the expanding Orlando campus.

I doubt they move from NY but if they do move to Florida, Fort Lauderdale seems much more likely.

I also doubt they move, and South Florida would make a lot of sense for a corp HQ, but they've sunk a lot of money into the Orlando campus and have already drafted a major expansion of support facilities there. Labor and land cost is lower in Central Florida and the facility planning is already done.

AC4500 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:45 pm

flymco753 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Alright New Years. A few items that I hope will get answered this year:

What does their partnership with AA turn out to be? When does codesharing start and how useful will their network be to the other airline's ff? Will this finally address their IRROPS problems? Will AA actually launch those JFK international flights? Will the agreement expand beyond NYC/Boston to include more cities?

AS just had a great deal in picking up additional MAX for no additional payments in 2021. While A220 is not in as desperate a situation as MAX, I wonder if JetBlue can get some additional immediate deliveries of A220 for minimal additional capex in 2021/2022. Will they be able to score additional A220 deliveries? What happens to E90? Will it actually be 1 for 1 replacement or will E90 remain in service for a little while longer?

The biggest question for me is what they do at EWR? EWR's new terminal 1 is opening early 2022 with 21 gates. It looks like a major upgrade over T-A right now and will probably be the most convenient airport for driving to and taxi drop-off/pickup. If PATH extension gets built in a few years, this would be the most convenient terminal to get to from Manhattan via public transportation. During rush hours, this would also be faster than taking a cab to LGA. Along with population movement in NY and other dynamics we've talked about, this could make EWR the preferred airport for more New Yorkers. JetBlue has some time this year to figure out whether or not EWR will be the preferred domestic airport for both within and beyond perimeter flights for lower/midtown Manhattan business travelers. If they decide EWR is that important, what is their ambition at EWR and how do they get there?

I've already raised the idea of exchanging gates/slots at JFK with UA for gates at EWR. They can try to do that also with other airlines. Other things they can try include proposing to add flights like EWR-BUF/SYR/ROC or ACY/TTN-FLL to gain political favors. They can partly fund the T-1 extension project in exchange for additional gates. If that means pausing the JFK T-6/7 project until 2023, then so be it. Maybe that will allow NK/F9 to stay in T-B for a few more years while the extension gets built. International flying is down for many years. There is no reason B cannot handle DL/NK/F9 staying there for a few years. They can go to AA and sublease as many gates as they can or make an agreement to use AA gates during downtime. AA is probably going to be under 20 flights a day out of EWR for a while. IIRC, B6 will be moving (with AC) into the 21 gates main pier before other airlines. Try to take over as many of those gates as possible. If they can get preferential usage over 16 gates, they should. That would require them adding a lot of routes from the second half of 2021 to first half of 2022. The remaining 12 gates + a couple of true CUTE gates in the main pier should be able to handle the gate requirements of UA/AA/AS.

Also, what are they doing in South Florida? Back in April, I anticipated that FLL and MCO would take a few years to recover to pre-pandemic capacity. It turns out that I was quite wrong about FLL at least. Demand out of South Florida has bounced back faster than anywhere else in their network. This has allowed them to restore 2/3 of their pre-pandemic schedule by Nov/Dec. The addition of MIA is part of their overall South Florida strategy. If we look at FLL departures, NK is already at their pre-pandemic schedule on some days while WN has completely fallen off the cliff. No major WN station has seen as much reduction as FLL. B6 faces a NK problem in FLL. They've talked about turning FLL into a more connection focused 130 flight station. They have already acquired enough gates to run that operation. As they add more markets in the middle of the country and connect more dots, are they able to beyond that? If WN permanently reduces FLL to a 60 to 70 flight station, they don't need all the gates they currently have access to. They might be willing to sublease gates to NK or B6. Will B6 be able to sublease any of those gates? They'd need more space/flights in FLL to compete in the area. With the continued population movement from NE to South Florida, the demand should continue to rapidly grow in the region.

My other question is what are they going to do in RDU? It seems like JetBlue is quite eager to expand there to fill the vacuum left by DL cuts. While RDU is not constrained as major airports, it was still facing constraints prior to the pandemic. I like the fact that they have moved in so quickly with new route announcements. In what must be a tough time for RDAA, these moves could be generating some good will for JetBlue. Could they secure enough real estate in gates and other spaces to launch a focus city that eventually grow to over 80 flights a day?
Do you think that B6 would add DTW-LAX? A daily A320 doesn't seem unreasonable especially since DL & NK yield well.

Both DL and NK have strong local market traffic in the LA and Detroit areas. B6 is still maturing in the LA market, and I'm guessing that they really aren't well-known in the Detroit area. So unless B6 is willing to offer fares even lower than what Spirit offers on that route, I don't think DTW-LAX would ever happen.

tphuang · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:48 pm

Seems like they got a pretty good deal on land and labor in Orlando. I wouldn't think there is any need to move HQ there. IIRC, JetBlue Travel Products have their HQ at Fort Lauderdale http://mediaroom.jetblue.com/investor-r ... -193814531 I don't think it would be too hard to move their main HQ in South Florida. It's a lot easier to attract talent closer to major urban centers.

As for DTW, I think EWR or FLL is more likely than LAX. If they are willing to try large midwest markets out of LAX, ORD should be the one they look at.

11C · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:55 pm

trueblew wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
trueblew wrote:

My guess is they will put that out there as a possibility (Orlando most likely) in order to drive a bargain or some favors from NY politicians (but not AOC or Michael Gianaris...ha!), end up keeping a relatively small NYC HQ while moving a lot of support functions to the expanding Orlando campus.

I doubt they move from NY but if they do move to Florida, Fort Lauderdale seems much more likely.

I also doubt they move, and South Florida would make a lot of sense for a corp HQ, but they've sunk a lot of money into the Orlando campus and have already drafted a major expansion of support facilities there. Labor and land cost is lower in Central Florida and the facility planning is already done.

I think the Orlando move has been a forgone conclusion for a long time, only the timing remains to be decided. But, that’s just me. I know from various discussions that hiring and retaining dispatchers is difficult in NYC. And, for the reasons stated above, Orlando is a natural fit. I also agree that some presence in NY will remain after the move. Preservation of cash may delay this further, but I think it will happen eventually.

flymco753 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:28 pm

It's cheap to employ someone in Central Florida than South Florida or the East Coast. They have a call center by my home. Our cost of living is even less if you skip tolls.

cpl22586 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:36 pm

Since the beginning of the pandemic the headquarters move discussions have been pretty much put on hold. If they did decide to move it would be Orlando instead of Fort Lauderdale. I'm sure JetBlue could strike a good deal with Metlife to stay in the building since I'm sure they wouldn't want to lose a long time tenant that occupies three floors and has done a lot for the surrounding area.

cpl22586 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:40 pm

trueblew wrote:
Blerg wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
2021 is a recovery year and is showing some promising signs at B6. Xmas holidays were good (relatively speaking) and bookings towards Spring looks promising.

220 comes aboard slowly.

LR comes online.

London joins network.

LAX.

AA.

Decision on Future HQ also due this year.

Do we know when London is being launched and from where? I suppose they will try to get LHR slots?

As for the HQ, are they thinking of leaving New York?

My guess is they will put that out there as a possibility (Orlando most likely) in order to drive a bargain or some favors from NY politicians (but not AOC or Michael Gianaris...ha!), end up keeping a relatively small NYC HQ while moving a lot of support functions to the expanding Orlando campus.

Those have been some of the rumors that they would keep a small presence in NY such as just keeping leadership. There was also talk of just keeping the system operations center in New York since it would be easier to move all the other departments especially since most people are already working from home anyway. I'm sure they will try to drive a bargain from DiBlasio or the future current mayor next week year, Cuomo and Schumer

tu154 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:10 pm

Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other side only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

tu154 · Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:35 pm

tu154 wrote:
Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other building (in the rain) only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

catiii · Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:50 pm

trueblew wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
trueblew wrote:

My guess is they will put that out there as a possibility (Orlando most likely) in order to drive a bargain or some favors from NY politicians (but not AOC or Michael Gianaris...ha!), end up keeping a relatively small NYC HQ while moving a lot of support functions to the expanding Orlando campus.

I doubt they move from NY but if they do move to Florida, Fort Lauderdale seems much more likely.

I also doubt they move, and South Florida would make a lot of sense for a corp HQ, but they've sunk a lot of money into the Orlando campus and have already drafted a major expansion of support facilities there. Labor and land cost is lower in Central Florida and the facility planning is already done.

Labor is cheaper, but the finance, legal, marketing, revenue talent doesn’t exist. Probably only half, if that, of the existing workforce would move.

jfklganyc · Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:50 pm

tu154 wrote:
Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other side only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

They have a lot of real estate and ramp space at one of the smallest commercial airports in the US.

I think they stay there. Although the plan was to move.

The MAT is an executive terminal for businessmen, not for boarding families to MCO. Nonetheless, B6 seems to like the facility

Nicknuzzii · Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:08 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
2021 is a recovery year and is showing some promising signs at B6. Xmas holidays were good (relatively speaking) and bookings towards Spring looks promising.

220 comes aboard slowly.

LR comes online.

London joins network.

LAX.

AA.

Decision on Future HQ also due this year.

Interesting you note LAX and not EWR...

tphuang · Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:06 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
tu154 wrote:
Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other side only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

They have a lot of real estate and ramp space at one of the smallest commercial airports in the US.

I think they stay there. Although the plan was to move.

The MAT is an executive terminal for businessmen, not for boarding families to MCO. Nonetheless, B6 seems to like the facility

When the AA deal got announced, there was mention that B6 might fly out of AA gates at LGA. MAT seems like a very good terminal for those short haul E90 shuttle flights to BOS and other business markets they might add. Those Florida flights would make more sense out of the main terminal. It would also offer some connection to other AA flights.

tphuang · Fri Jan 01, 2021 11:25 pm

Okay my guesses for new routes and new cities this year.

IND - I think IND has been high on their list for a while now and this will be the year it finally gets announced. I also think the presence of AA ff in the area will also make BOS/JFK/EWR work well.
CMH - After IND, I think this is the next likeliest city for them to enter. Again, the presence of AA ff in the area will also make BOS/JFK/EWR service work well.
SAL - With MRO there and the large expat community in LA Area and NYC, I think this is the largest VFR market missing from their JFK network that's within the range of A321NEO. Given that they have added GYE/GEO/GUA/BOG in recent years, SAL seems to be the next on their list.
SAP - I was tipped off by trueblew that this is high on their list. With no competition out of LAX and only 1 flight from UA out of NYC, there probably is enough demand for them to add SAP.
LHR - Taking a wild guess here that they get slots at LHR.

New routes I think they will add. I've got an ambitious list, but I think the network transformation that started in 2020 will continue this year. That will lead to more complete network out of NYC and Boston going forward.

JFK - LHR, IND, CMH, SAL, SAP, DCA, CLE, CLT. I know this is a lot of markets, but having more TATL to connect to will increase the viability of those within perimeter markets. It will also allow those to use more slots (at both JFK/DCA) in the likely event that slot waiver goes away later this year. JetBlue will need service to these additional markets to utilize the reduced slot usage from their existing markets. These additions will ensure they serve 29 out of 30 largest domestic markets out of NYC (with only STL missing) + all the VFR markets within A321NEO range + almost every leisure market + largest TATL market. To complete their JFK network, they will need more TATL destinations + LIM/GRU/GIG + domestic markets like STL/CVG/MCI. I think we are about 3 years away from a complete international hub airport that will rival anything Big 3 has in the Northeast.

BOS - LHR, IND, CMH. Similar to JFK, the biggest missing markets are TATL and STL/CVG/MCI. # of Flights likely to be down quite a bit even by end of the year. Again, the network is really coming together.

LGA - RDU, RIC, CHS, JAX - Leisure + Atlantic coast.

EWR - PWM, ACK, MVY, BUF, ROC, SYR, IND, CMH, ORD, DEN, SEA, BNA, MSY, SLC, PDX, SAV, RIC. I have an ambitious list, but I think this will happen if they decide EWR will become airport of choice for downtown Manhattan crowd. First 3 are summer only and the next 3 do well from JFK. After that, I think they will add the largest markets that don't face fortress hub competition on other end + SLC + some SE markets with leisure. With these additions, they will have quite the network out of EWR, missing just legacy fortress hubs of DFW/CLT/IAH/DTW/MSP + DCA among the top 28 markets out of NYC. There are probably some Latin American markets they can add too, but I haven't thought about what yet. These additions will allow them to schedule probably 110 flights a day for Q2 2022 in time for the open of T-1. That will hopefully allow them to claim a lot of gates.

MIA - SJU, SDQ, BDL, RDU
FLL - IND, CMH, SAL
MIA won't see many more additions after this. FLL will likely be back to close to 100 flights a day by the end of the year with these midwest additions and SAL. I think the FLL buildup to 130 flights a day will happen more toward second half of 2022 and 2023.

LAX - SAL, SAP, GUA, PIT, CLE
It seems like VFR and long/thin routes are what they are going after to start off their LAX buildup. All the Central American destinations should have a lot of VFR demand from LA. PIT is not served by any of the big 4. CLE is only served by UA and NK. Both moderate sized markets. Unlike the legacy airlines, I think JetBlue can stand the ULCC presence.

RDU - LGA, MIA, PHL, PBI, SAN, BDL, BUF, CLE
I think DCA will get added when business demand comes back more. ORD will get added later. Aside from that, this will connect up RDU pretty well.

SFO - LAS, SJD
AUS - LAS, SJU
A couple of more leisure focused P2P routes out of SFO/AUS to continue their growth in these 2 markets.

FWIW, I hope they got at least 2 gates at ORD for additional flights. Ideally, they need about 3 for a schedule of: 6x EWR, 4x JFK, 6x BOS, 1x FLL, 3x RDU, 2x LAX and 1x SJU. With 2, they can do 5x EWR, 3x JFK, 5x BOS, 1x FLL, 2xRDU.

RodFarva · Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:09 am

tu154 wrote:
Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other side only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

Spirit is going to be joining B6 at the MAT sometime soon.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

tphuang · Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:25 am

RodFarva wrote:
tu154 wrote:
Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other side only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

Spirit is going to be joining B6 at the MAT sometime soon.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is that a JetBlue decision or a PA decision? MAT is going to get really crowded with NK in there.

klm617 · Sat Jan 02, 2021 3:32 am

AC4500 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Alright New Years. A few items that I hope will get answered this year:

What does their partnership with AA turn out to be? When does codesharing start and how useful will their network be to the other airline's ff? Will this finally address their IRROPS problems? Will AA actually launch those JFK international flights? Will the agreement expand beyond NYC/Boston to include more cities?

AS just had a great deal in picking up additional MAX for no additional payments in 2021. While A220 is not in as desperate a situation as MAX, I wonder if JetBlue can get some additional immediate deliveries of A220 for minimal additional capex in 2021/2022. Will they be able to score additional A220 deliveries? What happens to E90? Will it actually be 1 for 1 replacement or will E90 remain in service for a little while longer?

The biggest question for me is what they do at EWR? EWR's new terminal 1 is opening early 2022 with 21 gates. It looks like a major upgrade over T-A right now and will probably be the most convenient airport for driving to and taxi drop-off/pickup. If PATH extension gets built in a few years, this would be the most convenient terminal to get to from Manhattan via public transportation. During rush hours, this would also be faster than taking a cab to LGA. Along with population movement in NY and other dynamics we've talked about, this could make EWR the preferred airport for more New Yorkers. JetBlue has some time this year to figure out whether or not EWR will be the preferred domestic airport for both within and beyond perimeter flights for lower/midtown Manhattan business travelers. If they decide EWR is that important, what is their ambition at EWR and how do they get there?

I've already raised the idea of exchanging gates/slots at JFK with UA for gates at EWR. They can try to do that also with other airlines. Other things they can try include proposing to add flights like EWR-BUF/SYR/ROC or ACY/TTN-FLL to gain political favors. They can partly fund the T-1 extension project in exchange for additional gates. If that means pausing the JFK T-6/7 project until 2023, then so be it. Maybe that will allow NK/F9 to stay in T-B for a few more years while the extension gets built. International flying is down for many years. There is no reason B cannot handle DL/NK/F9 staying there for a few years. They can go to AA and sublease as many gates as they can or make an agreement to use AA gates during downtime. AA is probably going to be under 20 flights a day out of EWR for a while. IIRC, B6 will be moving (with AC) into the 21 gates main pier before other airlines. Try to take over as many of those gates as possible. If they can get preferential usage over 16 gates, they should. That would require them adding a lot of routes from the second half of 2021 to first half of 2022. The remaining 12 gates + a couple of true CUTE gates in the main pier should be able to handle the gate requirements of UA/AA/AS.

Also, what are they doing in South Florida? Back in April, I anticipated that FLL and MCO would take a few years to recover to pre-pandemic capacity. It turns out that I was quite wrong about FLL at least. Demand out of South Florida has bounced back faster than anywhere else in their network. This has allowed them to restore 2/3 of their pre-pandemic schedule by Nov/Dec. The addition of MIA is part of their overall South Florida strategy. If we look at FLL departures, NK is already at their pre-pandemic schedule on some days while WN has completely fallen off the cliff. No major WN station has seen as much reduction as FLL. B6 faces a NK problem in FLL. They've talked about turning FLL into a more connection focused 130 flight station. They have already acquired enough gates to run that operation. As they add more markets in the middle of the country and connect more dots, are they able to beyond that? If WN permanently reduces FLL to a 60 to 70 flight station, they don't need all the gates they currently have access to. They might be willing to sublease gates to NK or B6. Will B6 be able to sublease any of those gates? They'd need more space/flights in FLL to compete in the area. With the continued population movement from NE to South Florida, the demand should continue to rapidly grow in the region.

My other question is what are they going to do in RDU? It seems like JetBlue is quite eager to expand there to fill the vacuum left by DL cuts. While RDU is not constrained as major airports, it was still facing constraints prior to the pandemic. I like the fact that they have moved in so quickly with new route announcements. In what must be a tough time for RDAA, these moves could be generating some good will for JetBlue. Could they secure enough real estate in gates and other spaces to launch a focus city that eventually grow to over 80 flights a day?
Do you think that B6 would add DTW-LAX? A daily A320 doesn't seem unreasonable especially since DL & NK yield well.

Both DL and NK have strong local market traffic in the LA and Detroit areas. B6 is still maturing in the LA market, and I'm guessing that they really aren't well-known in the Detroit area. So unless B6 is willing to offer fares even lower than what Spirit offers on that route, I don't think DTW-LAX would ever happen.

I think B6 on DTW-MCO is a better way to tap into the Detroit market more than DTW-LAX. There a plenty of opportunities in Detroit that are not being explored for various reasons.

RodFarva · Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:46 am

tphuang wrote:
RodFarva wrote:
tu154 wrote:
Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other side only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

Spirit is going to be joining B6 at the MAT sometime soon.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is that a JetBlue decision or a PA decision? MAT is going to get really crowded with NK in there.

Probably PA. It’s due to the construction in the CTB.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

jfklganyc · Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:15 pm

tphuang wrote:
RodFarva wrote:
tu154 wrote:
Does anyone know if B6 plans on staying in the Marine Air terminal at LGA or move to the new terminal once completed? Flew out of MAT not too long ago, and while it is historically significant, its a miserable and outdated facility by todays standards. No washrooms in the baggage claim area, had to exit and walk outside to the to the other side only to be greeted by a long wait for the tiny men’s room. The holding area at the gates does not have near enough seating and was very crowded. I imagine it is far worse when more people are traveling. You can tell they’ve tried hard to make the terminal as appealing as possible but its very difficult given its age and size. It’ll be a shame if B6 stays in MAT, rather than moving to a new and far better facility in the new terminal.

Spirit is going to be joining B6 at the MAT sometime soon.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Is that a JetBlue decision or a PA decision? MAT is going to get really crowded with NK in there.

Technically they only us 2-6.

AS used to use 1 and 2.

The problem with 1 is there is no hold area. Again, not an issue for a shuttle operation in 1995, but a big problem for loading 200 pax airbuses to Florida in 2020

ContinentalEWR · Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:29 pm

Is the Marine Air Terminal (MAT) landmark protected? Apart from the entrance to it, and the circular hallway, the rest, I think was built out over time from the 1980s onward, to first accommodate the Pan Am Shuttle and later modified slightly for Delta's BOS/DCA/ORD shuttle, and then again, for B6. If it could be demolished (and I am not saying it should, necessarily) what would the extra space gain for an already space limited airport, even with emerging (and gorgeous) new terminals?

flymco753 · Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:04 pm

klm617 wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
flymco753 wrote:
Do you think that B6 would add DTW-LAX? A daily A320 doesn't seem unreasonable especially since DL & NK yield well.

Both DL and NK have strong local market traffic in the LA and Detroit areas. B6 is still maturing in the LA market, and I'm guessing that they really aren't well-known in the Detroit area. So unless B6 is willing to offer fares even lower than what Spirit offers on that route, I don't think DTW-LAX would ever happen.

I think B6 on DTW-MCO is a better way to tap into the Detroit market more than DTW-LAX. There a plenty of opportunities in Detroit that are not being explored for various reasons.

There's no doubt that it will happen when the new Terminal C opens. MCO is DTW's largest market and the top 10 of MCO's largest markets so there would be decent exposure. They would need to price themselves between Delta and the LCC's. WN has gone back into the market with regular consistency after extending MCO & TPA through their schedules end. I think TPA or RSW-DTW could be a possibility too.

hbernal1 · Sat Jan 02, 2021 5:02 pm

New cities I think could come in 2021:
IND
CMH
PVR
SAL
SAP (per what a few others have suggested)
LGW (I don’t think B6 will fly to LHR once the London service starts)

Other places that have a remote chance of happening:
SNA - I think B6 will want to get in the minute they have enough A220s to fly from BOS/JFK at the very least. It will be important to have a station here going forward. I’m not confident if this happens in 2021 however.
IAD - Closing this station was a big mistake I think. Especially now that LAX is a focus city. But business travel is still almost entirely collapsed so I’m not very confident about there being enough of a return to justify reopening this station in 2021. But surprises can happen as 2020 showed us.

I’ll give my thoughts for 2021 on what will probably happen based on the cities that got a lot of expansion last year and B6’s focus cities:
BOS - coming back much more slowly than anticipated so I think B6 will want to take this opportunity to complete its network now that it won’t have to worry about flying 15x to DCA or 10x to LGA. Transatlantic service is starting this year so any gaps in B6’s network will start to show.

JFK - This is quite similar to Boston I think. I think B6 should also focus on its network from JFK and not worry so much about schedule while demand remains down since TATL service is coming and the A220s being delivered can help B6 build frequency on their routes from JFK.

EWR - Keep the expansion going. Taking as many gates as possible at the new T1 is going to be very important for B6. By the end of the year I’d expect there to be between 100-110 flights a day. B6 would be a solid #2 if that happens. I like that B6 are getting big at EWR. B6 only has legacy fortress hubs to add from EWR so that’s the bulk of what I think will be added from EWR. Considering B6 announced ATL, I don’t think any of the big hubs are off the table except for possibly DFW/DTW/MSP; I think FLL would benefit more from getting service to those stations anyway. But it seems to me that the adds this year will target mainly leisure like BNA/MSY.

FLL - Network-building will be more of a priority come 2022, but I think if IND/CMH come online this year they should get FLL service. There are still many gaps in the Midwest in B6’s FLL network as well as in other legacy fortress hubs like DEN/DFW/IAH. If FLL will become a 130-140 flight Caribbean hub, there also needs to be a quite comprehensive network. Any new Caribbean leisure probably gets FLL service. I’d be shocked if B6 are not back to at least 90-95 flights a day by the end of the year.

MCO - Oh poor sweet Orlando. I think LAX is probably more important right now. Adding service to San Diego probably makes sense but until B6 are in the new terminal, there’s just not going to be a whole lot happening.

LAX - More long and thin can make sense but I think the additions should really center on relatively large, underserved markets. CLE/PIT are perfect fits. If PVR happens, it will likely come with LAX service. GUA/SAL service should also happen; these are big VFR markets from LA area. Short haul service expansion will come for B6 around 2022-23. B6 only really needs to add DEN/PDX/PHX/SJC/SMF to cover all the bases, which can all just get token service anyway.

RDU - It’d be interesting to see B6 keep around the E90s a little longer because they can work out ok for shorter RDU flights with a little lower PDEW to begin with while B6 decides if it wants to take on the capex of another A223 order (is there an option for B6 to buy more?) I think B6 wants to start building a good network to use RDU as a good connecting hub down the road. I also think more northeastern and upstate NY markets + BNA will be added to facilitate connections to other parts of the country. I also think SAN gets added this year. But I’d like to see RDU be for B6 what BNA is to WN.

SFO - More gates are coming so B6 will have an important decision to make: build a network here or stick to LAX as the true JetBlue west coast focus. I think B6 should make a play for SFO since they can turn it into another focus city to really bolster its Mint routes here. I think SFO gets PVR (if it happens) and and LAS/SJD. I think SAN service can also happen but I’m less confident. I do think we’ll have a more concrete idea of what B6 does with SFO by the end of the year though.

AUS - The last round of expansions was encouraging for the AUS operation and it did leave some food for thought on what B6 has planned here moving forward. I see LAS/SAN/SJU happening.

MIA - I think a few more popular destinations from FLL work rather well. RDU/SDQ/SJU would be my top picks.

SJU - Besides AUS/MIA, it’s probably going to be a quiet year. We shall see.

A place I think B6 could target:
SAN - I mentioned San Diego a lot among the other cities JetBlue is expanding in so I think it deserves its own mention. San Diego has been growing a lot and has had an increasing tech presence on the west coast. There’s also a surprising amount of underserved (or completely unserved) markets that B6 can capitalize on. And WN isn’t really focused on SAN right now (add to that the fact WN isn’t all that big there compared to other stations where they’ve been getting really massive).

Other important things for B6 to focus on:
More ORD gates - Token presence from LAX and FLL will probably be okay, but there should be ORD service from most of their focus city airports. And only one gate doesn’t cut it when you want to offer good competitive schedules from both New York and Boston. Ideally, I think B6 wants 3 gates to offer ORD-(BDL?)/BOS/EWR/FLL/JFK/LAX/(PBI?)/RDU/SJU.

DCA slots - slot waivers could expire this year which would prompt B6 to add some routes here earlier than they would want since it’s definitely not a good idea to give up its DCA slots considering where B6 wants to expand.

nine4nine · Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:59 pm

Are the temp suspended cities still targeted for 6/1 service resumption?

ahj2000 · Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:22 pm

Anyone know how the RIC and RDU flights have done so far?

Nicknuzzii · Sat Jan 02, 2021 9:48 pm

nine4nine wrote:
Are the temp suspended cities still targeted for 6/1 service resumption?

Yes but that is still up in the air with the ever changing schedules.

tphuang · Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:08 am

ahj2000 wrote:
Anyone know how the RIC and RDU flights have done so far?

There are hits and misses. RDU-SJU has done pretty well. The florida stuff have done alright. RIC-LAX/LAS have been pretty abysmal. These are all in relative term obviously.

The question that gets through around is why JetBlue tries so many of these thin transcons and then just cancel them for Jan/Feb. I will examine that little bit. First, it's important to note that JetBlue as a whole already tries more thin transcons than any of the other ULCCs. A lot of that is by necessity, since their main focus city is JFK and the perimeter rules force them to fly longer ranged routes to utilize those slots. They have managed to master the art of lowering cost of these flights by always doing east bound red-eyes to increase A320 utilization. That's why you see them perfectly happy with 80% load factor at $230 average fare when any 2000+ miles route generating under $250 average fare with legacy carrier would be a huge disaster. Since WN doesn't do red-eyes, it also has a hard time sustaining $230 average fare on 2000+ mile routes. As we've seen since pandemic started, WN has little use for low fared transcon routes when they can perfectly connect people to their destination through one of those mid-con focus cities without taking up all that air frame time.

Having said that, let's look at why JetBlue is trying thin transcon as a such obvious part of their LAX strategy. We need to take a look at BUF-LAX. In 2015 Q3 (before they started), the market had 200 PDEW with average fare of $290. By 2019 Q3, the market had 270 PDEW with average fare of $266. JetBlue had 44% of market with average fare of $245. Which means, the rest of the airlines had average fare of $282. It also means that JetBlue on average carried 119 passengers each way per flight. If I estimate LF to be around 87% on 150 seat A320, then they carried on average 130 passengers per flight. It makes sense that over 90% of passengers are O&D since JetBlue has very little feed on both end. It also means that by lower fare by 10% + offering non-stop service, they were already able to get 35% increase in demand. Even if we assume some natural increase in those 4 years, there is clearly quite a bit of upside in demand from lower fare + non-stop service.

Keep in mind, BUF-LAX was quite profitable at that level of yield. The shorter JFK-ABQ flight had $207 in average fare. The longer BOS-SMF and JFK-RNO both had around $240 in average fare. JFK-SLC was at $212 and BOS-SLC was at $213. I'd say that on average, JetBlue is probably happy if a 2100 to 2300 mile route is generating around $230 in average fare with 85% LF (mostly O&D) from Q2 to Q4. Q1 numbers are always terrible.

That brings us to LAX-RIC/CHS/JAX. They are all considered surprising when they were announced since they had even less PDEW than BUF-LAX back in 2015Q3. RIC was at 154 PDEW and $324 in average fare with ORF at 182 PDEW and $345 average near by. JAX was at 168 PDEW with $311 average fare. CHS was at 114 PDEW and $332 average fare.

That's where A220-300 comes in. My calculation of JetBlue's publicly announced numbers would indicate the average trip cost for A220-300 to be 80% of an A320. It also yielded that CASM of A220-300 to be 16% less than 150 seat A320. There really has never been an aircraft with transcon range at such low trip cost and cost per passenger. Let's say for an average transcon route on A320, JetBlue fills 110 passengers at $230 average fare along with another 20 connection passengers at fare pro-rated to $150 per passenger, then the total fare of these passengers would be 28300. Of course, there are also ancillary revenues fees on top of that. For simplicity, let's just ignore that for now. A220-300 with 140 seat would need to generate 28300 * 0.80 / 140 = $161.7 per seat to have same profitability level.

Let's say that LAX eventually becomes a more connection point in a few years and they can connect 25 passengers per flight at pro-rate fare of $150 per passenger, then they'd need to generate $18,890 fare from direct passengers. Since markets like RIC/CHS/JAX have pretty high fares to start off, let's say they can generate average fare of $250. They would need to fill 75 passenger per flight with O&D. It would be 82 passengers if average fare becomes A320. In reality, they'd probably be willing to seat more passengers at lower fare and connect more passengers since more passengers also bring in more ancillary revenue.

If we look back at RIC-LAX, if they were to offer direct service and lower average fare by 15%, it would drop to $275. If we use BUF-LAX as guideline, O&D might rise from 154 to 215 (40% jump). They'd need to capture < 40% of the market to meet the scenario of 82 O&D passenger.

If we look at JAX-LAX, 10% drop in average fare could lead to $280 in average fare and PDEW of 210 (25% jump). They'd need to capture a little less than 40% of the market to meet the scenario of 82 O&D passenger.

CHS-LAX is the tricky one, they'd need a 20% drop in average fare to result in $266 in average fare and PDEW of 160 (40% jump). Since CHS does not have an ORF nearby, I'm guessing it would require a larger price drop to get the same % increase in PDEW. In this case, they'd need to capture more than 50% of O&D to meet the scenario of 82 O&D passengers.

So out of the 3, CHS is the one that I don't think can work as a daily flight even in summer time. Fortunately, both JAX/CHS-LAX have more even year round demand than RIC-LAX. So you could see 5x weekly to daily service on JAX-LAX and 4 to 5x weekly year round on CHS-LAX. For RIC-LAX, you are more likely to see a BUF-LAX scenario of 4x weekly in winter and daily in summer.

After all this, you are probably asking why my explanation does not match reality at all. Why are they having a hard time generating any bookings and canceling all of Jan/Feb. Well, keep the following in mind
- We are in the middle of a pandemic
- BUF-LAX is also gone in Jan/Feb. That was clearly performing up to expectations pre-COVID
- During normal times, those red-eye east bound flight only had to cover the cost of flight since they would otherwise just be sitting on the ground. Now that all of their flights are in that boat, these lower RASM transcon become a lot less desirable to operate.
- A220-300 is still a couple of years away from being deployed in large number.

I think the last part is the important part. CHS-LAX could never work on A320. RIC-LAX would have a hard time working on A320 and same with JAX. With A220-300, I think they could all work. It will take a few years before A220 is around in large numbers and when demand is closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Also, the other thing to keep in mind is that the economics of A220-300 would also allow them to operate PIT/CLE-LAX where big 4 have struggled with ULCCs low fares. In both cases, NK generates about $110 to 125 in average fares and probably make an equal amount on ancillary revenue. These are not thin markets, so JetBlue would likely be able to sell out flights by aggressive pricing. While 162 seat A320 could be sustainable in these markets, A220-300 would allow them to really aggressively price match NK to gain market share in these type of routes. Any non-premium 1800+ mile market where other end is not dominated by Big 4 would be a good candidate for A220-300.

So when we look at the routes they've added, we need to keep in mind that they might not take off for a couple of more years. A220-300 is a key part of their LAX strategy imo. I will look at its effect on the west coast market next.

Brianpr3 · Sun Jan 03, 2021 9:11 am

wonder if they add anything new for rsw? maybe an lax to answer to Alaska?

tphuang · Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:22 pm

The other part to look at is A220-300 on short/medium type of routes. Based on JetBlue's own comments, trip cost of A220 is about same as E90 (a few % less when factoring its greater utilization and lower maintenance costs) and about 20% less than A320. Based on my calculations, it's CASM is about the same as 200 seat A321CEO. And over time, its CASM will continue to improve as A220/GTF get PiPs.

When thinking about where to put the earliest A220, it makes sense to deploy them to routes where E90 is not competitive on unit cost basis (like BOS-BWI/DCA/DTW where they face main line competition) or competitive routes where they have hard time filling a 162 seat A320 (like BOS-AUS/MSP/ATL/DFW). It would be a waste of A220 to fly northeast to Florida where they have no problem filling the aircraft or JFK-island where they have minimal competition. The former would be best off to continue flying 200 seat A321s and the latter would be best off to continue flying A320s.

That's why I expect FLL, MCO and SJU to be the last to have A220 base (if they ever do). After BOS business markets, the next obvious places to place A220 are the thin transcons, NYC within perimeter business markets and LAX west coast stuff. Of those 3, they may find the LAX stuff to be the most time critical. That's why I expect LAX A220 base to happen pretty quickly.

In terms of lower cost competition along west coast in a couple of years time on routes that JetBlue will have to participate like LAX-SFO/SEA/SMF/PHX/SLC
WN - Likely a lot of MAX8 + 737-800 all along the west coast. If 175 seat MAX8 is close to A321NEO in CASM, then A220-300 is probably a little worse than MAX8 in CASM, but with 35 fewer seats to fill.
AS - Likely a lot MAX9, 737-800 on most routes + some RJ on LAX-SFO/SLC. MAX9 will probably be configured with 16 FC seat and around 180 seat overall. I would imagine A220-300 would be close to MAX9 in CASM, but without the additional revenue driver of 16 FC seat.

It's not hard to see why A320 would have trouble vs WN/AS. While it would have fewer seats to fill, it clearly has higher cost than MAX8/9. WN/AS, with more ff and connection, should also have no problem selling more seats.

Legacy competitions
DL - A lot of A319s and A220-100 + some RJs on routes where they don't have advantage. Likely a lot of A321s and 737-800 on hub to hub stuff.
UA - Probably a lot of MAX8 and 737-900 out of SFO and RJs on non-SFO LAX stuff
AA - A lot of A319, RJs and probably MAX8 eventually.

Legacy carriers often have higher yield on these shorter routes since they are flying smaller aircraft and have a lot of corporate contracts. Aside from UA out of SFO and hub to hub stuff like AA on LAX-PHX or DL on LAX-SLC, they are mostly flying smaller mainline or RJs. Even the much talked about DL A220-100 would have quite the cost disadvantage vs B6 A220-300. B6's A220-300 would have similar trip cost but 30 more seat. The A319s and RJs would be even more disadvantage.

As aircraft using GTF and LEAP series start to join main line service, the economics of RJs seems to be increasingly unsustainable. Due to scope clause, RJs are likely to use CRJ and E1-Jet for a long time. How can those aircraft compete with mainline in cost? IIRC, DL mentioned its A220-100's trip cost are only a little higher than RJs. How does legacies expect to generate enough yield premium on RJs to compete against LCC mainlines?

It has often been asked how JetBlue can compete against legacy airlines with much larger ff base and connections on those west coast route. A220-300 is the answer. The trip costs are so low (compared to A320s) that they can breakeven selling much fewer seats. Filling 100 is a lot easier than filling 130 seat per flight. As they add more connection at LAX, their flights could go from 90% O&D to 75% O&D. That's how they can go from 2x daily on LAX-SFO to 6x daily.

I do think it makes sense for them to order some A220-100 in order to improve schedules further on routes like LAX-SFO or BOS-DTW. They might only need to fill 90 seats in that case. Regardless, I hope JetBlue will be able to get some more A220 on the cheap while other A220 operators like AC are canceling/deferring their orders. Due to LCC desires of remaining single fleet operators of A321 or 737 series, A220's market potential is not as large as it should be. Since JetBlue has already made the move to operating more than 1 series and multiple configuration per series, they can take advantage of their position as one of the largest A220 operators for the foreseeable future.

trueblew · Sun Jan 03, 2021 6:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
Regardless, I hope JetBlue will be able to get some more A220 on the cheap while other A220 operators like AC are canceling/deferring their orders. Due to LCC desires of remaining single fleet operators of A321 or 737 series, A220's market potential is not as large as it should be. Since JetBlue has already made the move to operating more than 1 series and multiple configuration per series, they can take advantage of their position as one of the largest A220 operators for the foreseeable future.

I believe the way you frame the long, thin transcon and intra-west flying vis-à-vis the A220 is accurate, and I wonder if there is a scenario where JetBlue accelerates deliveries of A220. Obviously their financial situation dictates this ability, but the A220 is critical to the success of many of these markets and if the forthcoming AA codeshare brings as much flying to B6 as some have suggested perhaps they will need more A220s sooner? I could see a scenario where a handful of A320/E190 are retired and additional A220 delivered resulting in a wash or very slight net gain in fleet total by YE2021.

Edit: Additionally, there have been many Mint route additions. Could we perhaps see the four Thomas Cook A321s with JB tail numbers "re-" acquired and outfitted with the Mint interior in order to sustain these new routes as frequencies increase post-pandemic?

tphuang · Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:48 pm

A little more on the A220-300 front.
https://paxex.aero/jetblue-a220-first-delivery/
The most relevant part I got out of this is "The A220 is expected to seat 140 in the JetBlue configuration, including 30 in the Even More Space layout with additional legroom. That would mean an extra row of EMS compared to what was suggested in an internal company briefing in 2019. "

In comparison, some of the other A220-300 operators
KE: 25 Y+ and 105 Y
AC: 12 FC and 125 Y
DL: 12 FC, 30 Y+ and 88 Y
Air Baltic: 145 Y
LX: 115Y + 18 FC (European style blocking middle seat)

Only the all Y operators managed to squeeze in more seats.

Either way, JetBlue seems to have configured a pretty tightly packed setup with rear lav in the rear galley area behind the aft doors. This seems to allow them to squish in an additional row of seat or at least make more rows EMS. I'm sure FAs won't like it very much, but having some 30 Y+ seats could be a revenue driver or make mosaic members pretty happy.

FLYKTPA · Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:19 pm

Brianpr3 wrote:
wonder if they add anything new for rsw? maybe an lax to answer to Alaska?

You really think RSW can support two airlines to LAX?

hbernal1 · Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:56 pm

I think B6 if put in an order of the A221s, they’d do pretty well out of SNA once they can get the slots to start flying there. A221s would be perfect for shorter routes and as mentioned because B6 could actually be competitive in cost vs. WN/AS. And then of course, you can have A223s flying to BOS/JFK/EWR (maybe CUN as well, SNA-CUN would be pretty popular IMO).

usflyer msp · Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:02 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
I think B6 if put in an order of the A221s, they’d do pretty well out of SNA once they can get the slots to start flying there. A221s would be perfect for shorter routes and as mentioned because B6 could actually be competitive in cost vs. WN/AS. And then of course, you can have A223s flying to BOS/JFK/EWR (maybe CUN as well, SNA-CUN would be pretty popular IMO).

If B6 somehow managed to get SNA slots, they would only get 2 or 3. They are not going to waste any of those on money-losing SH West Coast flying.

Nicknuzzii · Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:21 pm

Anyone know what the deal is with the March schedule? It was pulled down only 24%. Is this a good sign? I think we’re all expecting more cuts to come but this is still much less of an initial cut than we have been seeing.

hbernal1 · Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:29 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
I think B6 if put in an order of the A221s, they’d do pretty well out of SNA once they can get the slots to start flying there. A221s would be perfect for shorter routes and as mentioned because B6 could actually be competitive in cost vs. WN/AS. And then of course, you can have A223s flying to BOS/JFK/EWR (maybe CUN as well, SNA-CUN would be pretty popular IMO).

If B6 somehow managed to get SNA slots, they would only get 2 or 3. They are not going to waste any of those on money-losing SH West Coast flying.

New entrants get 3 slots. NK entered just a few months ago and are up to 5 slots already. G4 is also in now. So B6 will have a much easier time getting in than pre-COVID. That said, I don’t expect that to happen before 2022. (Admittedly I would like for B6 to enter SNA).

SNA also typically commands a significant fare premium to other SoCal options so it’s not the same as short haul from BUR/ONT and it’s definitely not at all the money pit LAX is. AS/WN have almost entirely short-haul networks at SNA. The high demand and slot controls make fares desirable for airlines to come in. So much so the county had a waiting list for slots pre-COVID IIRC.

My expectation for B6 at SNA would be BOS/EWR/JFK. However, if there are A221s available, shorter routes like LAS/SFO would work much better with A221s than they would with B6’s current fleet. But obviously B6 will serve BOS/EWR/JFK first since the A223s are actually being delivered and there’s no order/commitment for A221s.

tphuang · Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:11 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Anyone know what the deal is with the March schedule? It was pulled down only 24%. Is this a good sign? I think we’re all expecting more cuts to come but this is still much less of an initial cut than we have been seeing.

I think there maybe a couple of more rounds of cuts to go. They are only down 10% YoY. No one they fly anything close to that. But stuff that got cut this first round like CLE-RSW is probably never coming back.

Optimistically, they are over 80% of 2019 schedule by this summer and about 100% of 2019 by end of year.

As for SNA, I think the problem is that it would take up 3 A220s to do SNA-BOS/EWR/JFK. That seems a lot of resource that should be spent on LAX.

These earliest A220-300s are going to be huge game changers for JetBlue and should be deployed at such.

usflyer msp · Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:33 pm

hbernal1 wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
hbernal1 wrote:
I think B6 if put in an order of the A221s, they’d do pretty well out of SNA once they can get the slots to start flying there. A221s would be perfect for shorter routes and as mentioned because B6 could actually be competitive in cost vs. WN/AS. And then of course, you can have A223s flying to BOS/JFK/EWR (maybe CUN as well, SNA-CUN would be pretty popular IMO).

If B6 somehow managed to get SNA slots, they would only get 2 or 3. They are not going to waste any of those on money-losing SH West Coast flying.

New entrants get 3 slots. NK entered just a few months ago and are up to 5 slots already. G4 is also in now. So B6 will have a much easier time getting in than pre-COVID. That said, I don’t expect that to happen before 2022. (Admittedly I would like for B6 to enter SNA).

SNA also typically commands a significant fare premium to other SoCal options so it’s not the same as short haul from BUR/ONT and it’s definitely not at all the money pit LAX is. AS/WN have almost entirely short-haul networks at SNA. The high demand and slot controls make fares desirable for airlines to come in. So much so the county had a waiting list for slots pre-COVID IIRC.

My expectation for B6 at SNA would be BOS/EWR/JFK. However, if there are A221s available, shorter routes like LAS/SFO would work much better with A221s than they would with B6’s current fleet. But obviously B6 will serve BOS/EWR/JFK first since the A223s are actually being delivered and there’s no order/commitment for A221s.

With SNA short-haul you have to "go big or go home". There is no way B6 would get enough slots to run their transcon stuff and a competitive schedule to places like SFO and LAS. They would need at least 3x daily.

Ishrion · Mon Jan 04, 2021 6:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
Alright New Years. A few items that I hope will get answered this year:

What does their partnership with AA turn out to be? When does codesharing start and how useful will their network be to the other airline's ff?

Regarding the "when", at the Baird 2020 Global Industrial Conference in November 2020, American had a slideshow that said the JetBlue partnership would be implemented in the "first half of 2021".

So any time from now until June 30, 2021... we'll be waiting.

tphuang · Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:36 pm

The first March cut appears to be deeper than CF mentioned on his blog. The last week of March have yet to be cut and the first few days of March got cut at the same time as the February stuff. For now, I'm only expecting 1 more moderate size cut.

Some notable cuts include JFK-SEA. BOS-SEA appears to just be A320 for now. JFK/BOS-SAN are both 1x daily. BOS-PHL is back at 1x daily, we will see if that lasts. BOS-EWR is back to 2x daily. BOS-LGA is still gone. EWR-SFO is back to daily. BOS/JFK/EWR-PHX are both back to daily or 6x weekly.

LAX-SFO/SEA/LAS/SJO continues to be gone for March, but LAX-RIC/RDU/BDL/JAX/PBI are daily or almost daily. LAX-AUS is up to 2x daily.

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