JoseSalazar wrote:

Disregard above post, looks like a little over 70 in each seat and it begins in June.

Good size for a new base for an airline sized like B6

Edit: still need to do some research on this before I post numbers. Looks like it might actually be higher than my edited post.

B6BOSfan wrote:

I have a feeling they chopped some BOS routes a bit too (besides adding back NYC and DCA stuff). Had all four of my BOS-DEN flights for November and December ax'd'. (Basically cut the early AM flight and late PM/redeye back flight and combined into one late AM/early afternoon turn). Tried routing me to JFK connection flights instead.

Switching my business to United for the winter, since it's a hub for them.

I noticed a similar thing: JetBlue reduced its schedule to CUN and pulled Mint from PSP.
It almost feels like they are slowly giving up on Boston. Sounds idiotic, I know, but all these reductions don't give me a positive outlook.

I have to think there is some political stuff going on here too. Showing commitment in NJ/EWR with a base in exchange for guaranteed number of gates/"slots". I'm sure a lot of flying (including all the E90 stuff) will still be done by the other bases.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Edit: still need to do some research on this before I post numbers. Looks like it might actually be higher than my edited post.

Thank you so much for sharing. Not bad numbers at all for B6. Now if only we can work on that winter schedule which is looking pretty bad right now.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Edit: still need to do some research on this before I post numbers. Looks like it might actually be higher than my edited post.

Thank you so much for sharing. Not bad numbers at all for B6. Now if only we can work on that winter schedule which is looking pretty bad right now.

Looks like a large number of vacancies on this bid. 285 captain vacancies, 437 FO vacancies, 722 total vacancies. I doubt they will fill that many vacancies with newhires (netting 722 would mean hiring about 900 to cover attrition between now and end of next year), but it looks like they are committed to growth and hiring. Bigger numbers than many expected. Some growth in the LAX base, but most growth in EWR/BOS as expected. Everything else seems to stay roughly the same.

Perhaps they can pick up some disgruntled Spirit personnel

Doesn’t seem like it hit many headlines being it’s probably fresh, but just came across this.
Looks like JetBlue HQ is staying in NY. Just like I predicted
https://newsbrig.com/jetblue-staying-in ... bs/361289/

As long as Schumer is there, no chance JetBlue was leaving. This was just a great way for JetBlue to get more tax breaks and better lease agreement. And JetBlue is far from being the only NY based company to do so.

With the mention of T6, I do wonder if something about that will finally get announced today. It's about time they do it. This will allow Schumer to gloat about bringing move jobs to NY.

Edit: Just saw someone else's comment on this. Could be a political move here by Schumer to tout the benefits of the infrastructure deal to the NY area to pressure certain well known member in the house.

tphuang wrote:

As long as Schumer is there, no chance JetBlue was leaving. This was just a great way for JetBlue to get more tax breaks and better lease agreement. And JetBlue is far from being the only NY based company to do so.

With the mention of T6, I do wonder if something about that will finally get announced today. It's about time they do it. This will allow Schumer to gloat about bringing move jobs to NY.

Edit: Just saw someone else's comment on this. Could be a political move here by Schumer to tout the benefits of the infrastructure deal to the NY area to pressure certain well known member in the house.

The infrastructure deal looks like it will pass.

The reconciliation bill doesn’t.

Should be interesting to watch

I'm interested in how much the Port Authority will benefit from the infrastructure deal, the Senate bill funds many areas the Port Authority is involved:

$25 Billion for airports.

The Port Authority has in the works but not yet begun, new Terminal B EWR, Terminal One, Terminal Six JFK. Also Airtrain LGA and new Airtrain EWR.

$39 Billion for Public transit

PATH Extension to EWR can benefit and possibly the PABT.

$110 Billion roads and Bridges,

new Outerbridge can benefit

$17 Billion for Ports and Waterways

Expanding Port Newark/Elizabeth

The Port Authority is also a partner in the Gateway project, which will benefit from the Infrastructure deal.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/07/28/upshot/infrastructure-breakdown.html

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/govern ... ort-resume

Yep, ground breaking on T6 expected next year with first gates opening 2025. Price has gone up about a billion dollars from the original proposal.

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=76563
A lot of political fluff in there. Looks like they are fully relocating to LGA in 2022. I'm surprised by that. Also, they are moving into the new EWR terminal A as expected. I'm wondering if there will be a separate PR release on that.

I'd curious to see what else JetBlue secured from the politicians as part of this. This should quash any concerns about NEA.

What's the significance of JFK airport lease getting extended to 2060?

Good to see T6 move forward…although I think initial plan had more than 10 gates…so that may have been scaled down a bit.

Yeah, is this just one phase? I didn’t see it written anywhere about additional construction but all of this will only net an additional 10 gates? That seems odd.

tphuang wrote:

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetblue_airways/usn/usnews-story.aspx?cid=981&newsid=76563
A lot of political fluff in there. Looks like they are fully relocating to LGA in 2022. I'm surprised by that. Also, they are moving into the new EWR terminal A as expected. I'm wondering if there will be a separate PR release on that.

I'd curious to see what else JetBlue secured from the politicians as part of this. This should quash any concerns about NEA.

What's the significance of JFK airport lease getting extended to 2060?

That was discussed here, it was needed for financing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-extends-jfk-airport-lease-to-spur-development-11614029231

jfklganyc wrote:

Good to see T6 move forward…although I think initial plan had more than 10 gates…so that may have been scaled down a bit.

$3.9 Billion for ten gates?

JoseSalazar wrote:

Looks like a large number of vacancies on this bid. 285 captain vacancies, 437 FO vacancies, 722 total vacancies. I doubt they will fill that many vacancies with newhires (netting 722 would mean hiring about 900 to cover attrition between now and end of next year), but it looks like they are committed to growth and hiring. Bigger numbers than many expected. Some growth in the LAX base, but most growth in EWR/BOS as expected. Everything else seems to stay roughly the same.

Thanks for this info. Just based on the numbers on the base, it seems like Florida is expected to see very little growth in the next 18 months. A lot of BOS growth expected with the increased E90 and A220 size. Based on the E90 numbers, I don't know if they will even return any E90 in 2023. From this projections, I'm more bullish on BOS recovery than before and less bullish on FLL and Orlando.

Of course, all of this assumes that we are in more or less a steady recovery for the next 2 years in both leisure and domestic business travel. There seems to be some short term weakness in demand with the end of summer season and Delta variant surge.

Just to put things into perspective, this is the approximate size of operation in summer of 2019
NYC - 210 to 215
BOS - 162
FLL - 95 (PBI around 20 to 25)
MCO - 62 to 64
LAX/LGB - 40

This was planned sizes for summer of 2020
NYC - 230
BOS - 182
FLL - 95 to 100 (PBI around 20 to 25)
MCO - 65 to 70
LAX/LGB - 38

The late November 2021 size after recent cut.
NYC - 254 (170 + 32 + 52)
BOS - 134
FLL - 82 (PBI 20)
MCO - 46
LAX - 38

I'm guessing the block hours for July of 2019 is probably about the same as for Nov. Based on the aircraft deliveries and bid sizes (even if assuming they hire less than projection), I'm expecting between 20 to 25% increase in block hours for summer of 2023 vs 2019, probably 25 to 30% in additional flights (based on increased shorthaul flights). So about 1350 daily flights and 750 departures from NYC/BOS/FLL/PBI/MCO/LAX

By summer of 2023, I think FLL and PBI will probably stagnate at about 110 flights in total with very few new routes. I think MCO will recover a little more to about 55 a day. There have been quite a few cuts, but all the non-cut routes including BUF/SYR/ALB have resumed flying by this winter. I think stuff like SFO/RDU will be brought back along with some increased flying to other focus cities.

LAX is a big question for me. The base size is growing sooner than expected. The base size indicates an operation of about 55 a day by summer of 2023. I was expecting most of the growth to happen from Q2 2023 to Q4 2025. Maybe they are doing this to pressure LAWA into giving them more gates at desirable locations. Another possible explanation is more SFO flying.

The increase in BOS base leads me to think a quicker recovery is in store. They already brought back LGA/DCA flying in anticipation of slot waivers going away. I'm expecting summer of 2023 to be at around 170 flights a day. So somewhere between 2019 and 2020 size. That means BWI will come back by then. They might even re-enter IAD and probably add a few new markets. All the additional A220s will make a lot of the 2 to 5 hour business markets more economical to fly.

Right now, I have NYC as 360 in total with 230 at JFK, 55 at LGA and 75 at EWR. This is the middle of the target range they've provided for all 3 airports. this is assuming that they got enough gates/slots at EWR for about 80 flights a day. If there is more upside at EWR, I'd imagine the logical consequences is a little less flying out of the other 3 NEA airports. Otherwise, they are close to done with their NYC expansion. I could see them add a few more flights here and there to fully utilize their slot portfolio or if they are able to grab some more slots in off peak hours. EWR and JFK can both probably add a few more flights in off peak hours. Any further LGA growth would be through upgauging or if AA decides to lease more slots to B6.

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55115
They took delivery of their 5th A220 on Wednesday

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55120
Another one just had its first flight

https://aibfamily.flights/A320/10619
Looks like the 3rd A321LR just had its first flight

Anyone want to guess how long before B6 orders widebody? port Authority specifically said T-6 was about expanding JetBlue's international long haul flying.

tphuang wrote:

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55115
They took delivery of their 5th A220 on Wednesday

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55120
Another one just had its first flight

https://aibfamily.flights/A320/10619
Looks like the 3rd A321LR just had its first flight

Anyone want to guess how long before B6 orders widebody? port Authority specifically said T-6 was about expanding JetBlue's international long haul flying.

You mean when Emirates, Aer Lingus, Icelandair, and what other long haul airlines move over to T-6… maybe widebodies are in our future, but doubt it’s within the next decade.

tphuang wrote:

Anyone want to guess how long before B6 orders widebody? port Authority specifically said T-6 was about expanding JetBlue's international long haul flying.

B6 hasn’t even started TATL flying yet and we are already talking about widebodies?

Expanding JetBlue’s international long haul flying=LR and XLR flights plus partner airline widebody flying.

Polot wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Anyone want to guess how long before B6 orders widebody? port Authority specifically said T-6 was about expanding JetBlue's international long haul flying.

B6 hasn’t even started TATL flying yet and we are already talking about widebodies?

Expanding JetBlue’s international long haul flying=LR and XLR flights plus partner airline widebody flying.

It's just a hypothetical question.

I don't think it's something that could happen until after they take all their XLR deliveries, but the T-6 lease is for 38 years. If they don't get taken over by a legacy carrier, it wouldn't surprise to me if they do make that jump at some point. A lot of those slides seem to be hinting in that direction.

Robin has said that an A321 is not an ideal trans Atlantic plane, especially on a high cost, high revenue route like JFK-LHR.

Would there be merit for JetBlue to have an all-Mint plane flying JFK-LHR?

FlyinRabbit88 wrote:

tphuang wrote:

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55115
They took delivery of their 5th A220 on Wednesday

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55120
Another one just had its first flight

https://aibfamily.flights/A320/10619
Looks like the 3rd A321LR just had its first flight

Anyone want to guess how long before B6 orders widebody? port Authority specifically said T-6 was about expanding JetBlue's international long haul flying.

You mean when Emirates, Aer Lingus, Icelandair, and what other long haul airlines move over to T-6… maybe widebodies are in our future, but doubt it’s within the next decade.

tphuang wrote:

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55115
They took delivery of their 5th A220 on Wednesday

https://aibfamily.flights/A220/55120
Another one just had its first flight

https://aibfamily.flights/A320/10619
Looks like the 3rd A321LR just had its first flight

Anyone want to guess how long before B6 orders widebody? port Authority specifically said T-6 was about expanding JetBlue's international long haul flying.

I also think by 2030 they will either have some widebodies on property or in the order books. The report says clearly "expanding *jetblue* long haul service from JFK" They didn't finance all those widebody gates just so partner airlines use it on only for them exclusively, and all day when they are sitting empty then what? Yes they have a dozen or so partner airlines but they aren't all going there, especially with a air train linking nearby T7, etc. Plus as they expand further into transatlantic service at some point they need to increase ASM's and really the only way they will be able to do it is by upgauging into larger aircraft. The UK/EU airports are almost all slot restricted unless they get lucky somehow getting a slew of more slots. Or Maybe do a joint venture deal with another carrier where they can share slots.
This all pending they don't merge or get acquired by another of the big 3, and if that were to happen i would say United, followed closely by American. But Jetblue has been adamant about staying stand alone organic airline.
IN this T6 rendering I see all jetblue widebodies, looks like a mix of jetblue B787's/A350's, maybe hinting at future plan?
https://www.stantec.com/en/projects/uni ... evelopment

Dieuwer wrote:

Would there be merit for JetBlue to have an all-Mint plane flying JFK-LHR?

On a 220-100 straight to london city airport, yes.

Some senior leadership announcement today. http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=76776

I have no idea if any of this will ultimately matter, but the combining of airport and system operations seems to be potentially meaningful for those who want to see JetBlue run a better operations.

For those interested. JetBlue is now ETOPS certified. Just in time for London.

tphuang wrote:

Some senior leadership announcement today. http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=76776

I have no idea if any of this will ultimately matter, but the combining of airport and system operations seems to be potentially meaningful for those who want to see JetBlue run a better operations.

I wouldn't be so sure. If memory serves, this Battaglia fellow has presided over numerous operational meltdowns and has never been held to account for such. It seems quite shocking they would give him additional responsibilities given his track record.

trueblew wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Some senior leadership announcement today. http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=76776

I have no idea if any of this will ultimately matter, but the combining of airport and system operations seems to be potentially meaningful for those who want to see JetBlue run a better operations.

I wouldn't be so sure. If memory serves, this Battaglia fellow has presided over numerous operational meltdowns and has never been held to account for such. It seems quite shocking they would give him additional responsibilities given his track record.

Yeah you know a company is in trouble culture-wise when they have horrendous operational metrics and they keep shuffling around the same few people.

are used to see that in American Eagle when I worked there many years ago… We would get these emails and it was the same few names being shuffled from position to position. Basically the position became irrelevant…It was a culture in which they thought the only answers resided within the company within the same few people.

don’t expect any major changes from bluejet with these moves

jfklganyc wrote:

trueblew wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Some senior leadership announcement today. http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=76776

I have no idea if any of this will ultimately matter, but the combining of airport and system operations seems to be potentially meaningful for those who want to see JetBlue run a better operations.

I wouldn't be so sure. If memory serves, this Battaglia fellow has presided over numerous operational meltdowns and has never been held to account for such. It seems quite shocking they would give him additional responsibilities given his track record.

Yeah you know a company is in trouble culture-wise when they have horrendous operational metrics and they keep shuffling around the same few people.

are used to see that in American Eagle when I worked there many years ago… We would get these emails and it was the same few names being shuffled from position to position. Basically the position became irrelevant…It was a culture in which they thought the only answers resided within the company within the same few people.

don’t expect any major changes from bluejet with these moves

Also concerning that they would promote the most toxic leader at jetblue. I’ve never heard FAs despise someone so much, or seen morale so low within a workgroup. Unbelievable he didn’t get sent to go spend more time with his family, and instead got promoted. But then again, this is the same company that put a lawyer with zero operations experience in the COO role.

JoseSalazar wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

trueblew wrote:

I wouldn't be so sure. If memory serves, this Battaglia fellow has presided over numerous operational meltdowns and has never been held to account for such. It seems quite shocking they would give him additional responsibilities given his track record.

Yeah you know a company is in trouble culture-wise when they have horrendous operational metrics and they keep shuffling around the same few people.

are used to see that in American Eagle when I worked there many years ago… We would get these emails and it was the same few names being shuffled from position to position. Basically the position became irrelevant…It was a culture in which they thought the only answers resided within the company within the same few people.

don’t expect any major changes from bluejet with these moves

Also concerning that they would promote the most toxic leader at jetblue. I’ve never heard FAs despise someone so much, or seen morale so low within a workgroup. Unbelievable he didn’t get sent to go spend more time with his family, and instead got promoted. But then again, this is the same company that put a lawyer with zero operations experience in the COO role.

They're just happy he is not their problem anymore. Have you seen his Twitter account? Dude's a trip.

jfklganyc wrote:

trueblew wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Some senior leadership announcement today. http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=76776

I have no idea if any of this will ultimately matter, but the combining of airport and system operations seems to be potentially meaningful for those who want to see JetBlue run a better operations.

I wouldn't be so sure. If memory serves, this Battaglia fellow has presided over numerous operational meltdowns and has never been held to account for such. It seems quite shocking they would give him additional responsibilities given his track record.

Yeah you know a company is in trouble culture-wise when they have horrendous operational metrics and they keep shuffling around the same few people.

are used to see that in American Eagle when I worked there many years ago… We would get these emails and it was the same few names being shuffled from position to position. Basically the position became irrelevant…It was a culture in which they thought the only answers resided within the company within the same few people.

don’t expect any major changes from bluejet with these moves

I have to agree. Giving more responsibilities to the man who is responsible for B6's consistently bottom-tier operational performance is a recipe for even further disaster.

ScorpioMC3 wrote:

JoseSalazar wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

Yeah you know a company is in trouble culture-wise when they have horrendous operational metrics and they keep shuffling around the same few people.

are used to see that in American Eagle when I worked there many years ago… We would get these emails and it was the same few names being shuffled from position to position. Basically the position became irrelevant…It was a culture in which they thought the only answers resided within the company within the same few people.

don’t expect any major changes from bluejet with these moves

Also concerning that they would promote the most toxic leader at jetblue. I’ve never heard FAs despise someone so much, or seen morale so low within a workgroup. Unbelievable he didn’t get sent to go spend more time with his family, and instead got promoted. But then again, this is the same company that put a lawyer with zero operations experience in the COO role.

They're just happy he is not their problem anymore. Have you seen his Twitter account? Dude's a trip.

On your suggestion I took a peek and... wow, how embarrassing for him. Consistent whining at customer service. I'm not surprised he has alienated such a large portion of the people that work under him.

I am starting to fear B6 management are about to take their airline off a cliff with the operational and personnel decisions they've been making.

CaptCoolHand wrote:

For those interested. JetBlue is now ETOPS certified. Just in time for London.

Hello, Hawaii??

Perhaps summer 2022 at earliest, or 2023 and beyond which is more likely. But that's mostly just wishful thinking on my part, and I'm aware that management is unhappy they're not getting enough new planes fast enough.

If they eventually do end up flying SFO-HNL/OGG, that would be a good metric to gauge whether they plan on expanding SFO into a focus city operation. If they simply add LAX to the islands, I can see that happening too but there is just such an insane amount of competition on those routes. 7 airlines flying LAX-HNL, 6 on LAX-OGG. Compare that to 4 on SFO-HNL and 3 on SFO-OGG, + way fewer frequencies per airline out of SFO.

What does it take for me to show B6 management that LAX is not the end all and be all of American aviation??? Lol.

sfojvjets wrote:

CaptCoolHand wrote:

For those interested. JetBlue is now ETOPS certified. Just in time for London.

Hello, Hawaii??

Perhaps summer 2022 at earliest, or 2023 and beyond which is more likely. But that's mostly just wishful thinking on my part, and I'm aware that management is unhappy they're not getting enough new planes fast enough.

If they eventually do end up flying SFO-HNL/OGG, that would be a good metric to gauge whether they plan on expanding SFO into a focus city operation. If they simply add LAX to the islands, I can see that happening too but there is just such an insane amount of competition on those routes. 7 airlines flying LAX-HNL, 6 on LAX-OGG. Compare that to 4 on SFO-HNL and 3 on SFO-OGG, + way fewer frequencies per airline out of SFO.

What does it take for me to show B6 management that LAX is not the end all and be all of American aviation??? Lol.

Ask and you shall receive?

In all seriousness, I do think there are some route planners who are reading this forum and probably this and other JetBlue related threads.

The good news is that LAX pilot base is slated to grow 30% from now until end of 2022 and I don't think they are actually going to increase flying out of LAX by that much over this period. If they do add more SFO flying, I'd think more of it will be done by LAX crew. But let's wait and see. At a minimum, they should bring back SFO-MCO.

They are not going to be able to add HNL next summer unless they order a few more A321NEOs. That doesn't seem to be happening right now.

tphuang wrote:

sfojvjets wrote:

CaptCoolHand wrote:

For those interested. JetBlue is now ETOPS certified. Just in time for London.

Hello, Hawaii??

Perhaps summer 2022 at earliest, or 2023 and beyond which is more likely. But that's mostly just wishful thinking on my part, and I'm aware that management is unhappy they're not getting enough new planes fast enough.

If they eventually do end up flying SFO-HNL/OGG, that would be a good metric to gauge whether they plan on expanding SFO into a focus city operation. If they simply add LAX to the islands, I can see that happening too but there is just such an insane amount of competition on those routes. 7 airlines flying LAX-HNL, 6 on LAX-OGG. Compare that to 4 on SFO-HNL and 3 on SFO-OGG, + way fewer frequencies per airline out of SFO.

What does it take for me to show B6 management that LAX is not the end all and be all of American aviation??? Lol.

Ask and you shall receive?

In all seriousness, I do think there are some route planners who are reading this forum and probably this and other JetBlue related threads.

The good news is that
LAX pilot base is slated to grow 30% from now until end of 2022 and I don't think they are actually going to increase flying out of LAX by that much over this period. If they do add more SFO flying, I'd think more of it will be done by LAX crew. But let's wait and see. At a minimum, they should bring back SFO-MCO.

They are not going to be able to add HNL next summer unless they order a few more A321NEOs. That doesn't seem to be happening right now.

Of all the airlines trying to climb the hill at LAX, I see B6 with the most headwinds. They don't have that strong a loyalty base in the LA Basin, neither among corporate travelers or leisure POS originating in LAX. The US3 are not going to give up on LAX, with AA and AS strengthening each other there, UA refocusing on LAX a bit, and DL in it for the long haul. B6 remains an East Coast carrier and routes like SFO-MCO illustrate where their bread and butter is, and isn't.

ContinentalEWR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

sfojvjets wrote:

Hello, Hawaii??

Perhaps summer 2022 at earliest, or 2023 and beyond which is more likely. But that's mostly just wishful thinking on my part, and I'm aware that management is unhappy they're not getting enough new planes fast enough.

If they eventually do end up flying SFO-HNL/OGG, that would be a good metric to gauge whether they plan on expanding SFO into a focus city operation. If they simply add LAX to the islands, I can see that happening too but there is just such an insane amount of competition on those routes. 7 airlines flying LAX-HNL, 6 on LAX-OGG. Compare that to 4 on SFO-HNL and 3 on SFO-OGG, + way fewer frequencies per airline out of SFO.

What does it take for me to show B6 management that LAX is not the end all and be all of American aviation??? Lol.

Ask and you shall receive?

In all seriousness, I do think there are some route planners who are reading this forum and probably this and other JetBlue related threads.

The good news is that
LAX pilot base is slated to grow 30% from now until end of 2022 and I don't think they are actually going to increase flying out of LAX by that much over this period. If they do add more SFO flying, I'd think more of it will be done by LAX crew. But let's wait and see. At a minimum, they should bring back SFO-MCO.

They are not going to be able to add HNL next summer unless they order a few more A321NEOs. That doesn't seem to be happening right now.

Of all the airlines trying to climb the hill at LAX, I see B6 with the most headwinds. They don't have that strong a loyalty base in the LA Basin, neither among corporate travelers or leisure POS originating in LAX. The US3 are not going to give up on LAX, with AA and AS strengthening each other there, UA refocusing on LAX a bit, and DL in it for the long haul. B6 remains an East Coast carrier and routes like SFO-MCO illustrate where their bread and butter is, and isn't.

Yes, your point isn’t without merit. But they just opened LAX as their new west coast focus city. I’ve said many times, airline’s business is about future forecast and forward investment. No one starts a airline operation off the bat with a bang unless your heavily leveraged on the cost side. If they want to be the airline with serious relevancy on the east coast, an investment on big west coast markets make sense for building a more fortuitous network years down the road. In the next couple years JetBlue will cover much of the US, Canada, Caribbean, central and Latin America, Europe with transatlantic and its first foray over pacific with Hawaii service. For its size and scope, it’s impressive on what they cover, and you can you now understand why they are investing into lax, and to an extent sfo as well. Getting lax/ sfo investment will still be much cheaper than if they bought Virgin America. Years later it’s now seems they actually are better off not buying them, where at the time it seemed like a lost opportunity. Now they are getting what they wanted at a fraction of the cost. So their interest of the big lax/sfo markets was on their priority list even 5 years ago.

ContinentalEWR wrote:

tphuang wrote:

sfojvjets wrote:

Hello, Hawaii??

Perhaps summer 2022 at earliest, or 2023 and beyond which is more likely. But that's mostly just wishful thinking on my part, and I'm aware that management is unhappy they're not getting enough new planes fast enough.

If they eventually do end up flying SFO-HNL/OGG, that would be a good metric to gauge whether they plan on expanding SFO into a focus city operation. If they simply add LAX to the islands, I can see that happening too but there is just such an insane amount of competition on those routes. 7 airlines flying LAX-HNL, 6 on LAX-OGG. Compare that to 4 on SFO-HNL and 3 on SFO-OGG, + way fewer frequencies per airline out of SFO.

What does it take for me to show B6 management that LAX is not the end all and be all of American aviation??? Lol.

Ask and you shall receive?

In all seriousness, I do think there are some route planners who are reading this forum and probably this and other JetBlue related threads.

The good news is that
LAX pilot base is slated to grow 30% from now until end of 2022 and I don't think they are actually going to increase flying out of LAX by that much over this period. If they do add more SFO flying, I'd think more of it will be done by LAX crew. But let's wait and see. At a minimum, they should bring back SFO-MCO.

They are not going to be able to add HNL next summer unless they order a few more A321NEOs. That doesn't seem to be happening right now.

Of all the airlines trying to climb the hill at LAX, I see B6 with the most headwinds. They don't have that strong a loyalty base in the LA Basin, neither among corporate travelers or leisure POS originating in LAX. The US3 are not going to give up on LAX, with AA and AS strengthening each other there, UA refocusing on LAX a bit, and DL in it for the long haul. B6 remains an East Coast carrier and routes like SFO-MCO illustrate where their bread and butter is, and isn't.

Keep in mind that AA ff can earn the same point on a JetBlue flight now as a B6 ff. So any AA ff that might pick AS flights could be equally incentivized to pick B6 flights down the road if they get all the reciprocal ff benefits worked out. That's a far better situation than building a focus city with very few ff.

I see NYC and LAX as the two markets in the country where everyone have to be at. DL has been throwing money at both markets for years and they are still well below average in profit levels based on the sources I've looked at (yes, that does include their LGA performance). From a network point of view, it is a market B6 has to build for the sake of rest of its network.

Aside from that, it should be obvious that LAX has long been their most profitable station due to the success of mint. Most of the new stuff they added are probably performing terribly, but mint still constitutes such a large portion of LAX capacity that LAX remains very profitable for them. The question is whether or not these additional flying provides enough benefit to their performance in mint, to credit card signup to their ff base/corporate customers and their east coast stations to offset their likely losses. That's something I don't have answers to.

I think the biggest challenge they continue to have at LAX is gate space. It's going to be a huge problem if they are forced to have a split terminal operation and/or operate out of TBIT west. Bad for connections and O&D traffic. It's going to be interesting to see where their negotiation with LAX is going to end up. I've been bringing up the scenario of SFO buildup, because this split terminal/TBIT west scenario is quite possible. From where I can see, getting enough gates to have a 50 to 60 flight operation at SFO should be pretty easy. But even in that scenario, they still need to probably have a similar sized station at LAX. Their NEA growth will tap out in a couple of years and LAX/SFO are necessarily places to grow if they want to be more than a northeast airline.

B6 doesnt need to be big at LAX.

They need a presence.

And they need to be a leading presence in their Mint markets (which they already are)


The pilot system bid is out and they will grow LAX by a good amount next year pilot-wise. None of that was possible with Long Beach


In retrospect, LGB was a mistake. Missing out on VX was also a mistake. And funnily enough, AS buying VX to dismantle it was the biggest mistake of all

B6 had no choice but to find an alternative to LGB and clearly, the only option was LAX. The LAX operation needs to be of a size and include a key advantage, and they are building toward that quickly as others have said with MINT.

The LGB operation for B6 was developed at an entirely different time in B6's growth phase and so calling it a mistake is a little misplaced. Am not sure B6 buying VX would really have solved much for B6 network wise, and it would have been financially, and operationally, overwhelming for them. JetBlue has never run a clean operation. While it has avoided major meltdowns thus far, it doesn't operate on time and does not seem to be able to shake that. This has been the case with B6 since almost inception. Trying to stitch together two very different carriers and operations would have been a disaster for B6. AS buying VX was not really a mistake. It was more of a missed opportunity to port VX's best assets into the AS operation. You can clearly see that in AS ending LAX from JFK. AS is much stronger carrier than B6 in many ways, including balance sheet, and has further built in advantages that will help it in the long run including its membership in OW. On the West Coast, AS has a formidable network but one that still needs some optimization.

The inaugural flight is launching tonight.

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/14 ... 8711712768
Not really sure where this source came from. Apparently they are not only launching BOS-LON next year, but also looking to increase NYC-LON to 5x.

I'd imagine they need 1 or 2 more A321LR deliveries to accomplish this, but who knows.

I must have missed, but where are the slots coming from for LHR? Wishing B6 the best of luck in this market

tphuang wrote:

The inaugural flight is launching tonight.

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/14 ... 8711712768
Not really sure where this source came from. Apparently they are not only launching BOS-LON next year, but also looking to increase NYC-LON to 5x.

I'd imagine they need 1 or 2 more A321LR deliveries to accomplish this, but who knows.

Pilot staffing vacancies for now do not at all reflect 5x London from JFK, but there are remedies that can accomplish that later.

N757ST wrote:

tphuang wrote:

The inaugural flight is launching tonight.

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/14 ... 8711712768
Not really sure where this source came from. Apparently they are not only launching BOS-LON next year, but also looking to increase NYC-LON to 5x.

I'd imagine they need 1 or 2 more A321LR deliveries to accomplish this, but who knows.

Pilot staffing vacancies for now do not at all reflect 5x London from JFK, but there are remedies that can accomplish that later.

I assume the Boston crew will handle some of the JFK flights. Waiting to actually hear from JetBlue on this one.

tphuang wrote:

The inaugural flight is launching tonight.

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/14 ... 8711712768
Not really sure where this source came from. Apparently they are not only launching BOS-LON next year, but also looking to increase NYC-LON to 5x.

I'd imagine they need 1 or 2 more A321LR deliveries to accomplish this, but who knows.

NYC-LON 5x next year is a pipe dream and not going to happen. Where is this demand going to come from?

Jeremy

SESGDL wrote:

tphuang wrote:

The inaugural flight is launching tonight.

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/14 ... 8711712768
Not really sure where this source came from. Apparently they are not only launching BOS-LON next year, but also looking to increase NYC-LON to 5x.

I'd imagine they need 1 or 2 more A321LR deliveries to accomplish this, but who knows.

NYC-LON 5x next year is a pipe dream and not going to happen. Where is this demand going to come from?

Jeremy

With only 114 seats to fill, I feel better about demand than I do about LHR slots.

Perhaps a long-term goal is 5x daily, but reaching that level of JFK-LHR frequency by next summer (to say nothing of BOS-LHR) seems unrealistic.

codc10 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

tphuang wrote:

The inaugural flight is launching tonight.

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/14 ... 8711712768
Not really sure where this source came from. Apparently they are not only launching BOS-LON next year, but also looking to increase NYC-LON to 5x.

I'd imagine they need 1 or 2 more A321LR deliveries to accomplish this, but who knows.

NYC-LON 5x next year is a pipe dream and not going to happen. Where is this demand going to come from?

Jeremy

With only 114 seats to fill, I feel better about demand than I do about LHR slots.

Perhaps a long-term goal is 5x daily, but reaching that level of JFK-LHR frequency by next summer (to say nothing of BOS-LHR) seems unrealistic.

To be fair they say LON and not LHR specifically.

Polot wrote:

codc10 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

NYC-LON 5x next year is a pipe dream and not going to happen. Where is this demand going to come from?

Jeremy

With only 114 seats to fill, I feel better about demand than I do about LHR slots.

Perhaps a long-term goal is 5x daily, but reaching that level of JFK-LHR frequency by next summer (to say nothing of BOS-LHR) seems unrealistic.

To be fair they say LON and not LHR specifically.

In that case, much more reasonable for the short term.