Looking at FlyColumbus.com's list of CMH/LCK destinations as of 12-22-20, including those suspended (https://flycolumbus.com/storage/product ... 2-2020.pdf
), the list had shortened and showed the following still haven't come back:
-BOS (AA announced today, DL will probably bring back)
-JAX (G4 was seasonal anyway, probably comes back)
-LAX (AA and DL appear to have dropped, but I can't believe one of them won't bring it back, especially if somebody else (WN, B6, NK, etc.) announces it and they get territorial.
-MYR (returning on both G4 and NK in April)
-MSY (seasonal on both WN and NK)
-JFK (has value to DL given TATL network and either AA or B6 will run it to represent their partnership.)
-PUJ (they still list as a Vacation Express destination, but VE is bringing back CUN in May)
-RDU (lives and dies with the DL focus city, but there's been a fairly constant airline link between the two over time between JI, AA, DL, and that weird time where F9 ran it)
-SLC (returns in April)
-SFO (does UA bring it back?)
-YYZ (Canadian border closed)
To look at it another way, here's what's still out if you exclude those confirmed to be restarting and YYZ, which has shown up on OAG a few times only to disappear due to COVID restrictions:
-Likely to come back- JFK
-Possible- LAX, SFO
-Hard to tell- MSY (might be helped with two carriers on it and NK's continued seasonal operation), JAX (probably easy enough for G4 to operate), PUJ, RDU
Thanks for compiling this! Some thoughts:
MSY - this route is bookable 3x weekly (Sun/Tues/Thurs) on NK beginning April 18. It could of course get pushed back, but I believe the resumption was part of a recent announcement of returning NK routes so I think it’s a near certainty it returns on a seasonal basis.
YYZ - CMH has been included with the long list of planned restarts that includes all of AC’s secondary U.S. flights every time it shows up on the OAG thread (only to have them all get pushed back again). I think this one is a certainty for return, it’s the timing that is anyone’s guess.
JFK - Agree with your assessment, but think that AA’s announcement of BOS yesterday makes it less likely we see B6 in the near term, which is too bad because BOS, JFK, and LAX on B6 with AA codeshare operating from B concourse would have been absolutely ideal for CMH.
LAX and SFO - Imagine posting on this forum 3 years ago that in 2021 our only west coast destination would be SEA on AS. Laughter would have ensued. LAX has to return. CMH is too big a market to not have at least one nonstop daily to LAX when it recently had 3. Personally I would prefer AA resume it, but AS, B6, DL, NK, WN, UA, are all possibilities to some degree. Heck, even G4 at LCK is a long shot option. I think this gets picked up by the end of the year as long as covid vaccinations stay on track. SFO is a bit less of a certainty in my mind, but unlike LAX it is still getting cancelled on a month to month basis by UA, so that is hopeful.
Agreed, thanks for putting this together and weighing in on each individual destinations potential return. My own thoughts on the markets yet to return, both completely and for certain carriers:
BOS - agree that DL will eventually be back. My guess is they'll try and beat AA to the punch by coming back by late May or into June, but would probably wait no longer than August 17 to come back. Not sure if WN will cede the market to AA and DL, especially considering all the new markets they've announced over the past year or so. jetBlue seems like a distant possibility now, but as more 220s roll in, maybe it could happen.
LAX - agreed, it is pretty incredible that SEA has managed to survive while AA and DL have zero-ed out LAX through the remainder of the year. The route must have had a huge business contingent in order to survive, especially to be supported thrice daily at one point. Of course, that market segment has dried out, hence the route's disappearance. Part of me thinks one of them will be back once the market conditions favor it, but I fear a ULCC will bite first, knocking AA and/or DL out of the picture. NK would be the most likely in my opinion, but the F9 dartboard could strike also. WN would be a decent option, but not sure if they want to cannibalize their DEN, PHX, and LAS connections, which already provide good connectivity to the Basin. Again, would love to have B6 or even AS on the route, but the segment is probably pretty far off their radar to be considered viable. Hoping that someone attempts the route by the end of the year.
JFK - really surprised DL hasn't brought this route back yet. They are running quite a few desirable VFR nonstops out of JFK to places like ACC, DSS, and LOS which are popular out of CMH. There are some token feeder flights currently running, but they're all to places where they compete head-to-head with jetBlue. With the AA/B6 hook up, there might be incentive to beat DL to the punch ala BOS. Hoping this route also returns by summer.
RDU - pretty long shot of this route ever coming back, particularly with Delta. F9 might give it another shot, now that there is no competition. Or if B6 makes an attempt at the route and Delta will be back in a heartbeat!
SFO - personally, I would love nothing more than for United to surprise us all and resume the route this year. Considering it was only a recent addition and many of the routes it fed have also gone away, it's probably not very likely. But if domestic tourist travel remains strong through the rest of the year, SFO could be a nice gateway to several West Coast attractions. My guess is we'll have to wait until 2022 to see the route again, at the earliest.
The other YTD routes have been summed up pretty well. Hoping to continue to build on flight activity from CMH and LCK as things improve.