Philippine Aviation Thread - 2021

SQ22 · Thu Dec 31, 2020 2:12 pm

Welcome to the Philippine Aviation Thread 2021. Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here.

Link to previous thread:

Philippine Aviation Thread - 2020

Bobby27ph · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:07 am

Happy New Year!!!

filipinoavgeek · Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:56 am

With the new strain going around I presume there will be some changes to the timetable right? We already know London's probably going to be gone for a while.

N667US · Fri Jan 01, 2021 5:54 pm

The Philippines will prohibit the entry of foreign travellers from the United States from Sunday, Jan. 3 until Jan. 15 after the more infectious new variant of the coronavirus was detected in Florida.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2962DW

Philippine747 · Sun Jan 03, 2021 3:10 am

Delta flew their first SEA-ICN-MNL service last night as DL292! This marks the return of DL after nearly one year and the first regular A339 service to the Philippines.

According to the Delta Network thread, ICN-MNL-ICN 5th freedom is bookable from 1 March, currently you need to travel all the way to/from SEA on the same itinerary.

filipinoavgeek · Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:43 am

Any news on CTS and the other suspended routes?

Devilfish · Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:44 pm

CAPA weighs in on MNL airport congestion problem.....

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... e-recovery

This while a cause-oriented group campaigns for the Government to take action at NAIA immediately.....

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... -still-low

.....and as the NMIA franchise bill lapsed into law..... :spin:

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021 ... lapses-law

Philippine747 · Fri Jan 08, 2021 2:53 pm

First PR timetable update for this year as posted on their website. I may make a few errors in my summary, and all schedules are subject to change depending on conditions. Here are some of the selected highlights:

Domestic:

MNL-CGY loses one daily service, bringing it to 2x daily (returns to 4x daily from 1 Feb)
MNL-CEB at a steady 3x daily + extra daily service from 11-31 Jan (all opb Mainline), to become 8x daily from 1 Feb (some flights opb PALex)
MNL-DVO currently operating 5x weekly opb Mainline, planned to become 32x weekly from 1 Feb
MNL-DGT returns to 2x daily from 1 Feb
MNL-GES 2x weekly, increasing to daily from 1 Feb
MNL-PPS 11x weekly, with 4 weekly Mainline service from 2-30 Jan
MNL-TAC remains at 2x daily
CEB-CRK retimed (flight continues to originate from CEB)
CEB-ILO to resume 1 Feb (3x daily)
CRK-IAO starts 6 Feb, 1x weekly
DVO-ZAM is 1x weekly until 1 Feb (increases)
DVO-ILO resumes 1 Feb (1 daily)
ZAM-TWT is 1x weekly from 4-25 Jan, returns to daily from 1 Feb

Philippine747 · Sun Jan 10, 2021 2:54 pm

Adding on to the PR timetable update (international scheds were down yesterday), some selected highlights, subject to change:

MNL-BKK operating 1x weekly, 3x weekly from 1 Feb
MNL-BNE operating 1x weekly as PR5221/5222
MNL-HAN resumes 5 Feb, 1x weekly
MNL-LHR planned resumption on 2 March, 3x weekly (suspended due to UK travel ban)
MNL-LAX currently 6x weekly, becomes 8x weekly throughout March
MNL-JFK 1x weekly, additional frequencies added through March
MNL-SFO operating 4x weekly
MNL-SIN receives additional 2x weekly service on top of 1x daily from 3 Feb
CEB-KIX resumes 1 Mar, 3x weekly
CEB-NRT operates on selected dates, resumes 1 Mar, 3x weekly

filipinoavgeek · Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:34 am

Has PR resumed CTS yet? Is PER still on the backburner? Are they planning to resume TUG service anytime soon?

Philippine747 · Mon Jan 11, 2021 12:58 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Has PR resumed CTS yet? Is PER still on the backburner? Are they planning to resume TUG service anytime soon?

CTS/PER/TUG is still off the timetable at the moment...

qf789 · Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:38 pm

Philippine747 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Has PR resumed CTS yet? Is PER still on the backburner? Are they planning to resume TUG service anytime soon?

CTS/PER/TUG is still off the timetable at the moment...

I cant see PER going ahead for a while probably next year at the earliest, at this stage mid year for any international travel is optimistic and would likely be towards the end of this year

filipinoavgeek · Tue Jan 12, 2021 10:56 am

Any updates on other new airports or terminals being built? How's Calbayog and GenSan's new terminals going along, as well as Bicol International?

Philippine747 · Wed Jan 13, 2021 9:11 am

qf789 wrote:
Philippine747 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Has PR resumed CTS yet? Is PER still on the backburner? Are they planning to resume TUG service anytime soon?

CTS/PER/TUG is still off the timetable at the moment...

I cant see PER going ahead for a while probably next year at the earliest, at this stage mid year for any international travel is optimistic and would likely be towards the end of this year

I hope so, would love the NEOs being stretched out once again!

AB330 · Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:02 am

Is PAL Express due to received an additional Dash 8-Q400 this year?

From the article it mentions the following backlogs.

"Customers that are expecting to take delivery of a new DHC-8-400 this year are Air Tanzania (one), Biman Bangladesh Airlines (two), Conair (two), Elin (three), Ethiopian Airines (four), PAL Express (one), TAAG Angola Airlines (four) and an unidentified customer (two)"

https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/de-h ... -dhc-8-400

filipinoavgeek · Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:38 am

Haven't heard any new news about Sangley lately: have commercial flights from the new terminal there been put in the backburner?

Philippine747 · Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:04 am

According to the Baguio City Public Information Office's FB page, PAL Express is to start test flights into Baguio from Manila by the end of this month. Some preparation work has been completed, wonder if the terminal is ready to receive pax after 12 years? Also, it would be great if the flights would start on 15 March - perfect for PAL's 80th anniversary as it was their first route!

https://www.facebook.com/pio.baguio/pos ... 4229036702

filipinoavgeek · Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:10 am

Philippine747 wrote:
According to the Baguio City Public Information Office's FB page, PAL Express is to start test flights into Baguio from Manila by the end of this month. Some preparation work has been completed, wonder if the terminal is ready to receive pax after 12 years? Also, it would be great if the flights would start on 15 March - perfect for PAL's 80th anniversary as it was their first route!

https://www.facebook.com/pio.baguio/pos ... 4229036702

Supposedly one problem with Baguio flights is that they'll have very low yields, especially now that they have to compete with Baguio road travel, which is shorter than ever with TPLEX finally being complete. With Manila traffic and how long you'll need to stay at the airport, paying more for approximately less amount of time makes less sense. It's not like you're flying to Ilocos or Bicol where the long road trip makes flying more appealing. If Baguio will get commercial flights again, it will need to rely on connections, or perhaps flights to places other than Manila (such as Cebu).

Devilfish · Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:40 am

Philippine747 wrote:
PAL Express is to start test flights into Baguio from Manila by the end of this month.

Would they use the Q300 or Q400 for the initial flights? The YS-11s previously flying this route had long ago given up the ghost..... :ghost:

Philippine747 wrote:
Some preparation work has been completed, wonder if the terminal is ready to receive pax after 12 years?

Hopefully, they had had secured enough funds from the BBB program to implement much needed airfield and terminal improvements, as well as modernize and upgrade air navigation equipment and aids.....

https://inqmobility.com/2021/01/18/avia ... l-flights/

Philippine747 wrote:
Also, it would be great if the flights would start on 15 March - perfect for PAL's 80th anniversary as it was their first route!

PAL's new Q400NG will be a nice stepup for MNL-BAG-MNL. :airplane:

Here's hoping passenger demand would have appreciably returned by the time they mount regular flights. :crossfingers:

filipinoavgeek · Tue Jan 19, 2021 5:48 am

Devilfish wrote:
Philippine747 wrote:
PAL Express is to start test flights into Baguio from Manila by the end of this month.

Would they use the Q300 or Q400 for the initial flights? The YS-11s previously flying this route had long ago given up the ghost.....

Philippine747 wrote:
Some preparation work has been completed, wonder if the terminal is ready to receive pax after 12 years?

Hopefully, they had had secured enough funds from the BBB program to implement much needed airfield and terminal improvements, as well as modernize and upgrade air navigation equipment and aids.....

https://inqmobility.com/2021/01/18/avia ... l-flights/

Philippine747 wrote:
Also, it would be great if the flights would start on 15 March - perfect for PAL's 80th anniversary as it was their first route!

PAL's new Q400NG will be a nice stepup for MNL-BAG-MNL. Here's hoping passenger demand would have appreciably returned by the time they mount regular flights.

I thought PR retired their Q300s a while back? IIRC they were really only ever used for Caticlan pre-runway extension.

Bobby27ph · Tue Jan 19, 2021 4:47 pm

The biggest aircraft that landed in Baguio so far, is the 737-300.

DHC 8-4 (Q400) shouldn’t be a problem!:)

Devilfish · Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:35 pm

Didn't 6K also fly the Dash-7 to Baguio? Wonder if a beach to mountain getaway package could be sustainable and economically viable..... :sun:

Would be great should 2P launch BAG-MPH-BAG service with the 'NG'..... :bigthumbsup:

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ugir6Cw0pSM/ ... Q4_New.png

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BAG-MPH&MS=wls&DU=nm

filipinoavgeek · Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:49 am

https://livinginasia.co/new-airports-in ... asia-2021/
According to a news report cited in this article it seems that they're planning to finish Bicol by this year and that 72% of the work has already been completed.

Philippine747 · Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:18 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Supposedly one problem with Baguio flights is that they'll have very low yields, especially now that they have to compete with Baguio road travel, which is shorter than ever with TPLEX finally being complete. With Manila traffic and how long you'll need to stay at the airport, paying more for approximately less amount of time makes less sense. It's not like you're flying to Ilocos or Bicol where the long road trip makes flying more appealing. If Baguio will get commercial flights again, it will need to rely on connections, or perhaps flights to places other than Manila (such as Cebu).

In a pre-Covid situation, this route would be very good for business travellers and connecting pax. Rush cargo (if the Dash can accommodate it) would also benefit. Regardless of the situation, the road up to Baguio sometimes closes due to roadwork/obstacles, so a flight in would be good for connectivity.

filipinoavgeek wrote:
I thought PR retired their Q300s a while back? IIRC they were really only ever used for Caticlan pre-runway extension.

Affirm on that. Before Bombardier sold off their prop division, I remember seeing some of the PALex birds up for sale on their used aircraft site. Couldn't find it anymore though...

Bobby27ph wrote:
The biggest aircraft that landed in Baguio so far, is the 737-300.

DHC 8-4 (Q400) shouldn’t be a problem!:)

Question is though... how much would the payload hit be? Airport is 4K ft AMSL, with only a 6000 foot runway. However, since the climate is usually cool (with peak highs of only +30C according to Wikipedia), there would be a performance improvement. I'd wager that they would have to uplift fuel from Manila for the return trip due to the lack of fuel. I have no perf data though, so maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in?

Also, the Q400 is RNP capable, so if CAAP/PALex design their own procedures, the diversion rate may go down as well...

Bobby27ph · Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:36 pm

Philippine747 wrote:

with only a 6000 foot runway.

Devilfish · Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:53 pm

Philippine747 wrote:
Rush cargo (if the Dash can accommodate it) would also benefit. Regardless of the situation, the road up to Baguio sometimes closes due to roadwork/obstacles, so a flight in would be good for connectivity.

Doesn't PAL have any plan of converting a couple or so of their older Q400s to freighters like 5J did with its ATRs?

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/de- ... 51.article

Philippine747 wrote:
Before Bombardier sold off their prop division, I remember seeing some of the PALex birds up for sale on their used aircraft site.

Per the Wiki link, DHC was considering a 50-seat shrink of the Q-series after the sale to Longview...that would be beneficial to smaller operators on thinner routes (if it goes ahead and they can afford it).....

"De Havilland is considering a 50-seat shrink, as North American airlines operate 870 ageing 50-seaters, mostly CRJs and Embraer ERJs."

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BAG-WNP,BA ... GP/PPS/TAG

Philippine747 wrote:
Question is though... how much would the payload hit be? Airport is 4K ft AMSL, with only a 6000 foot runway. However, since the climate is usually cool (with peak highs of only +30C according to Wikipedia), there would be a performance improvement.

By many accounts, the Q400 is overpowered so it's faster than the ATR72. Maybe the extra HP could compensate (unless they'd fly the high density config)? Also, the round trip is well within the Q400's normal range. BTW, how much of the 5,912 foot runway is actually available for takeoff and landing?

For those wondering how the proposed NMIA location in Bulakan looks from the air.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu5fE9f4M7Q

So it's "fortunate" that there would be a reliever international airport soonish.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luJjYKJ ... e=emb_logo

https://business.inquirer.net/316260/ne ... accine-hub

Philippine747 · Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:01 am

Devilfish wrote:
Philippine747 wrote:
Rush cargo (if the Dash can accommodate it) would also benefit. Regardless of the situation, the road up to Baguio sometimes closes due to roadwork/obstacles, so a flight in would be good for connectivity.

Doesn't PAL have any plan of converting a couple or so of their older Q400s to freighters like 5J did with its ATRs?

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/de- ... 51.article

By many accounts, the Q400 is overpowered so it's faster than the ATR72. Maybe the extra HP could compensate (unless they'd fly the high density config)? Also, the round trip is well within the Q400's normal range. BTW, how much of the 5,912 foot runway is actually available for takeoff and landing?

Most of the old (non-NG) Q400s are either stored or scrapped. Only RP-C3030 seems to be active. -C3031 from my knowledge is stored in Cebu at the PAL hangar (pre-Covid) and is relatively intact, with plastic covering any inlets. I don't know what regs these are, but there are two Q400s at the PALex hangar in MNL (visible from the highway) that have been stripped of parts and engines.

On the other hand, the Q400 Combi seems like a good option instead of retrofitting those old birds... it allows more flexibility when it comes to schedule planning.

Philippine747 · Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:32 am

Selected highlights from PR timetable update on their website from 18 January:

Domestic:
MNL-BCD to become 1x daily from 1 Feb
MNL-BSO to operate on select dates
MNL-CGY to remain 3x daily (4th daily planned dropped)
MNL-CEB 3x daily (planned extra frequencies dropped)
MNL-MPH now 2x daily
MNL-KLO currently 5x weekly, to become 1x daily from 1 Feb (opb PALex)
MNL-DVO 5x weekly
MNL-LGP now 2x daily
MNL-PPS to become 1x daily from 1 Feb (opb PALex)
CEB-DPL to become 2x weekly from 1 Feb, increasing to 1x daily from 1 Mar
CEB-MPH 1x daily to begin from 1 March

International:
MNL-BKK to become 3x weekly from 1 Feb (currently 1x weekly)
MNL-BNE operating 1x weekly
MNL-HKG is now 3x weekly, to become 4x weekly from 6 Feb
MNL-SGN to resume from 1 March, 3x weekly (4x weekly from 5 Mar)
MNL-MEL operating 1x weekly
MNL-JFK is 1x weekly, with gradual increases in March
MNL-SYD operating 1x weekly
MNL-YYZ 1x weekly
CEB-NRT to operate on 6 & 20 Feb (planned regular resumption on 1 Mar)
CEB-KIX to resume 1 Mar

MNL-Australia flights are using 5XXX flight numbers

Devilfish · Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:32 pm

Philippine747 wrote:
On the other hand, the Q400 Combi seems like a good option instead of retrofitting those old birds... it allows more flexibility when it comes to schedule planning.

I just thought the old ones would allow 2P to gain the capability sans the big CAPEX of buying new. Agree that the Q400 Combi would make very good sense for a destination like Baguio...if only PAL could still acquire the variant despite the current difficulties..... :boxedin:

https://www.bombardier.com/content/dam/ ... 0.750.jpeg

https://www.knaviation.net/wp-content/u ... 24x683.jpg

https://aviationvoice.com/wp-content/up ... -combi.jpg

https://aviationdoctor.files.wordpress. ... -350px.jpg

The Combi may even be very useful out of CRK..... :airplane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2PhCvy ... e=emb_logo

SkyHigher · Tue Jan 26, 2021 11:57 pm

Bad news for SGL redevelopment, per Cavite Governor Remulla.
https://web.facebook.com/JonvicRemullaJ ... 9417642686

Philippine747 · Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:33 am

SkyHigher wrote:
Bad news for SGL redevelopment, per Cavite Governor Remulla.
https://web.facebook.com/JonvicRemullaJ ... 9417642686

Probably for the better - with the NAIA/Clark redevelopment, and the new Bulacan airport, there will be too many airports in the Metro Manila area.

SkyHigher · Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:05 pm

Philippine747 wrote:
SkyHigher wrote:
Bad news for SGL redevelopment, per Cavite Governor Remulla.
https://web.facebook.com/JonvicRemullaJ ... 9417642686

Probably for the better - with the NAIA/Clark redevelopment, and the new Bulacan airport, there will be too many airports in the Metro Manila area.

Well, the SGL redevelopment of Cavite LGU remains in status quo but they will find a new private partner by October so the closure of NAIA (MNL) as a park or another CBD in favor of SGL (a government-owned airport) and/or NMIA (a privately-owned airport with a legislative franchise) which will begin its construction and further developments of CRK will still happen.

Devilfish · Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:53 pm

SkyHigher wrote:
Well, the SGL redevelopment of Cavite LGU remains in status quo but they will find a new private partner by October so the closure of NAIA (MNL) as a park or another CBD in favor of SGL (a government-owned airport) and/or NMIA (a privately-owned airport with a legislative franchise) which will begin its construction and further developments of CRK will still happen.

Good luck with that...I view it more as a long hibernation..... :spin:

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... ey-setback

Quote:
"Until now, there were fears the government decision to allow numerous airport projects to proceed would result into excess capacity that serves a limited number of travelers to Manila and nearby areas each year. Originally, NAIA, the Clark Airport, Bulacan Airport and that in Sangley would be running simultaneously over the long-term. Builders had downplayed concerns of overcrowding.

For Remulla, Sangley remains a viable location for an airport and would start negotiating with other interested bidders for the project. But timeline is tight because by October, election season would kick off with the deadline for filing candidacies for next year and by law, no new public project may be awarded 45 days before polls or starting March 2022. The same rule would apply to the NAIA Project.

Under the now-revoked plan, the first phase of the Sangley project was targeted to accommodate up to 25 million passengers each year beginning 2023."

Devilfish · Mon Feb 01, 2021 2:24 am

Philippine747 wrote:
Probably for the better - with the NAIA/Clark redevelopment, and the new Bulacan airport, there will be too many airports in the Metro Manila area.

Not if Mareng Winnie had her way. I have a lot of respect for Ms. Monsod but the timing of her article certainly raises some eyebrows..... :eyebrow:

Speaking of CRK T2...LIPAD may not be exactly flying in its execution but as the opening was reset for July and a pandemic is raging, time is enough so easy does it.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWTZ5pa ... e=emb_logo

Anyway, airlines may not be in too much of a hurry to see it finished.....

https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021 ... bankruptcy

filipinoavgeek · Mon Feb 01, 2021 11:38 pm

Well Devilfish, looks like you got your wish: Kuwait's A338 paid a visit to NAIA yesterday, though I don't know if it's a regular service from now on or just a sub.

Devilfish · Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:13 am

Why, thank you for the info...does KU have a maintenance deal with LTP? If they haven't, probably not enough passengers to warrant use of their bigger planes. It's at times like this that the A338 will show its value...maybe a few more orders would follow should this situation persist. Hopefully, spotters were alert enough to get some shots or a video of this rare bird at MNL. I think KU's A338 is a regular at LHR.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceT22AW1hNI

Devilfish · Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:15 pm

From SkyscraperCity, a conceptual mixed-use rendering of the coastal development for NMIA's support industries..... :wideeyed:

posted by: @chestersim from FB

https://scontent.fmnl4-4.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... e=6040545E

So if it's a mere 2 km away from the airport proper, SMC is intending to extend MRT-7 to the reclamation offshore actually just across Meycauayan & Obando :?:

They are planning to connect the shoreline causeway (08) at the Skyway junction with C3/R10...and perhaps complete the loop to Entertainment City via the old PNR lines in Port Area. Those would take at least 15 years and billions of dollars :!:

And now for the harsh and bitter reality..... :worried:

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... -employees

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... nd-layoffs

Devilfish · Thu Feb 04, 2021 7:32 pm

Furthermore...according to this, the two major roads shown going east inland would eventually connect the sattellite development to C6 and C5 respectively..... :point:

posted by: @chestersim on SkyscraperCity

https://scontent.fmnl4-1.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... e=603ED6AB

It has now become a media battle, so it's incumbent upon the reader to separate the substance from the hype..... :spin:

https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2021/0 ... al-hurdles

Quote:
"The project’s immensity necessitated green lighting by the three branches of government. Awarded in 2019, the build-operate-transfer deal underwent rigorous screening in various executive agencies. Performance bonds, environment clearances and government shares in revenues were secured. Requirements and reviews by the transport and finance departments took nearly a year. The House of Reps and Senate spent another half year to study income, value-added and import tax exemptions during construction. That phase is limited to ten years.

No government equity, property or loan is to be extended. The franchise forbids any bailout in case of future SMC losses. No guarantees or subsidies whatsoever.

Government is to get 12-percent revenue share from operations. It becomes the development owner at the end of the concession."

SkyHigher · Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:20 am

Devilfish wrote:
Why, thank you for the info...does KU have a maintenance deal with LTP? If they haven't, probably not enough passengers to warrant use of their bigger planes. It's at times like this that the A338 will show its value...maybe a few more orders would follow should this situation persist. Hopefully, spotters were alert enough to get some shots or a video of this rare bird at MNL. I think KU's A338 is a regular at LHR.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceT22AW1hNI

Regular flight, substituting 77W or A332.

Devilfish wrote:
From SkyscraperCity, a conceptual mixed-use rendering of the coastal development for NMIA's support industries.....

posted by: @chestersim from FB

https://scontent.fmnl4-4.fna.fbcdn.net/ ... e=6040545E

So if it's a mere 2 km away from the airport proper, SMC is intending to extend MRT-7 to the reclamation offshore actually just across Meycauayan & Obando They are planning to connect the shoreline causeway (08) at the Skyway junction with C3/R10...and perhaps complete the loop to Entertainment City via the old PNR lines in Port Area. Those would take at least 15 years and billions of dollars

And now for the harsh and bitter reality.....

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... -employees

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... nd-layoffs

As PRRD say, major reclamation projects in MNL Bay are banned until 11:59 AM of June 30, 2022. We'll see on the next administration(s) if they'll grant SMC to do this.

Devilfish · Sun Feb 07, 2021 12:47 am

SkyHigher wrote:
Regular flight, substituting 77W or A332.

I was hoping it's a probing flight for an eventual downgauging instead of a one-off..... :airplane:

.....

https://simpleflying.com/kuwait-airways ... 00-routes/

Quote:
"With next month’s schedule posted on Routesonline, flights to London, Guangzhou, or Manila could be good candidates."

https://simpleflying.com/wp-content/upl ... 00x323.png

It's a reasonable expectation so local airlines wouldn't have to contend with dumped capacity during these hard times. After all, KU used to fly relatively young A332s to MNL before.....

SkyHigher wrote:
As PRRD say, major reclamation projects in MNL Bay are banned until 11:59 AM of June 30, 2022. We'll see on the next administration(s) if they'll grant SMC to do this.

And that is the biggest reason why the country is in perpetual arrested development over all these years - politicians trying to one-up each other.....

https://business.inquirer.net/317072/fa ... -ambitions

Although a very close second is the chronic lack of budget..... :dollarsign:

https://business.inquirer.net/317123/ph ... -into-debt

Philippine747 · Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:49 am

Devilfish wrote:
And now for the harsh and bitter reality.....

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... -employees

https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/ ... nd-layoffs

I wonder when the first planes are going to be returned...

Devilfish · Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:00 pm

Devilfish wrote:
The Combi may even be very useful out of CRK.....

On second thought, the D328eco might be a better island hopper should Sierra Nevada succeed in getting it off from the planning stage up into the sky... :airplane:

...

https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5f8ec38 ... p-1080.png

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3ARB8fjnkY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faUnkQ8DHBc

Philippine747 wrote:
I wonder when the first planes are going to be returned...

The Ides of March will come three days early for the employees. I think we won't know the fleet changes until PR announces the negotiation results with their lessors and creditors. :ziplip:

But as I posted in the A330N Prospects thread -- :duck:

with the proposed budget increases in advance of the next national elections, I wish enthusiasts and spotters alike would get a TwoTwenty consolation prize to make up for whatever planes could leave the local aviation scene..... :crossfingers:

AB330 · Sat Feb 13, 2021 5:31 am

I've received info that both PAL and CEB are starting to returned excess aircraft in there fleet with more likely to follow.

For 5J RP-C3341 there first A330-300 recently returned to MNL from Alice Spring Australia. At first I though it was in preparation to transport vaccine from either China or the Middel East to the country. However my source told me that it is wrong it actually was being ready to be returned to its lessor in the next following weeks.

Meanwhile next month PAL will be retiring its first B77W RP-C777 which will be followed by other types which will be fully disclose during the 2Q of 2021.

filipinoavgeek · Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:04 am

AB330 wrote:
I've received info that both PAL and CEB are starting to returned excess aircraft in there fleet with more likely to follow.

For 5J RP-C3341 there first A330-300 recently returned to MNL from Alice Spring Australia. At first I though it was in preparation to transport vaccine from either China or the Middel East to the country. However my source told me that it is wrong it actually was being ready to be returned to its lessor in the next following weeks.

Meanwhile next month PAL will be retiring its first B77W RP-C777 which will be followed by other types which will be fully disclose during the 2Q of 2021.

Is C7777 young enough to possibly find a new owner or could it be scrapped? And by "types" do you mean entire fleet types or just specific planes? Is 5J planning to return all of their A330s or just the oldest ones? Aren't their oldest A330s still pretty young?

AB330 · Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:19 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
AB330 wrote:
I've received info that both PAL and CEB are starting to returned excess aircraft in there fleet with more likely to follow.

For 5J RP-C3341 there first A330-300 recently returned to MNL from Alice Spring Australia. At first I though it was in preparation to transport vaccine from either China or the Middel East to the country. However my source told me that it is wrong it actually was being ready to be returned to its lessor in the next following weeks.

Meanwhile next month PAL will be retiring its first B77W RP-C777 which will be followed by other types which will be fully disclose during the 2Q of 2021.

Is C7777 young enough to possibly find a new owner or could it be scrapped? And by "types" do you mean entire fleet types or just specific planes? Is 5J planning to return all of their A330s or just the oldest ones? Aren't their oldest A330s still pretty young?

So far only RP-C3341 is confirmed to leave 5J fleet I suspect RP-C3266 one of CEB few remaining A320-200 in the old livery is also likely leaving the fleet.

As for PAL according to my "Source" who is a pilot for PR he mentions all wide-body types are affected A330 and B777, though for the A350 its 50/50 for now. The reason why they are considering the A350 is the lease rate is high and the routes they used LHR and JFK are low demand. Unless lessor are willing to reduced the rate for the A350 there is a good chance will see a reduction of 2 to 3 A359 in the fleet. On the other hand for the A333 mentioned at less 5 aircraft are likely affected no mentioned which config. However as previously stayted likely those stored may go additionally he mentioned that the B77W are also likely seeing more reduction in the future which will be clarified during the 2Q earning calls.

Quite surprised he didn't mention any A321-200 or A320-200 if they will see reduction?. I suspect most will likely be replaced with the A321neo once delivery resume in 2022 or 2023 while others will be transffered to GAP.

filipinoavgeek · Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:36 am

AB330 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
AB330 wrote:
I've received info that both PAL and CEB are starting to returned excess aircraft in there fleet with more likely to follow.

For 5J RP-C3341 there first A330-300 recently returned to MNL from Alice Spring Australia. At first I though it was in preparation to transport vaccine from either China or the Middel East to the country. However my source told me that it is wrong it actually was being ready to be returned to its lessor in the next following weeks.

Meanwhile next month PAL will be retiring its first B77W RP-C777 which will be followed by other types which will be fully disclose during the 2Q of 2021.

Is C7777 young enough to possibly find a new owner or could it be scrapped? And by "types" do you mean entire fleet types or just specific planes? Is 5J planning to return all of their A330s or just the oldest ones? Aren't their oldest A330s still pretty young?

So far only RP-C3341 is confirmed to leave 5J fleet I suspect RP-C3266 one of CEB few remaining A320-200 in the old livery is also likely leaving the fleet.

As for PAL according to my "Source" who is a pilot for PR he mentions all wide-body types are affected A330 and B777, though for the A350 its 50/50 for now. The reason why they are considering the A350 is the lease rate is high and the routes they used LHR and JFK are low demand. Unless lessor are willing to reduced the rate for the A350 there is a good chance will see a reduction of 2 to 3 A359 in the fleet. On the other hand for the A333 mentioned at less 5 aircraft are likely affected no mentioned which config. However as previously stayted likely those stored may go additionally he mentioned that the B77W are also likely seeing more reduction in the future which will be clarified during the 2Q earning calls.

Quite surprised he didn't mention any A321-200 or A320-200 if they will see reduction?. I suspect most will likely be replaced with the A321neo once delivery resume in 2022 or 2023 while others will be transffered to GAP.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some 777s go, many analysts were saying PR had too many of them even before the pandemic.

Philippine747 · Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:25 am

AB330 wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
AB330 wrote:
I've received info that both PAL and CEB are starting to returned excess aircraft in there fleet with more likely to follow.

For 5J RP-C3341 there first A330-300 recently returned to MNL from Alice Spring Australia. At first I though it was in preparation to transport vaccine from either China or the Middel East to the country. However my source told me that it is wrong it actually was being ready to be returned to its lessor in the next following weeks.

Meanwhile next month PAL will be retiring its first B77W RP-C777 which will be followed by other types which will be fully disclose during the 2Q of 2021.

Is C7777 young enough to possibly find a new owner or could it be scrapped? And by "types" do you mean entire fleet types or just specific planes? Is 5J planning to return all of their A330s or just the oldest ones? Aren't their oldest A330s still pretty young?

So far only RP-C3341 is confirmed to leave 5J fleet I suspect RP-C3266 one of CEB few remaining A320-200 in the old livery is also likely leaving the fleet.

As for PAL according to my "Source" who is a pilot for PR he mentions all wide-body types are affected A330 and B777, though for the A350 its 50/50 for now. The reason why they are considering the A350 is the lease rate is high and the routes they used LHR and JFK are low demand. Unless lessor are willing to reduced the rate for the A350 there is a good chance will see a reduction of 2 to 3 A359 in the fleet. On the other hand for the A333 mentioned at less 5 aircraft are likely affected no mentioned which config. However as previously stayted likely those stored may go additionally he mentioned that the B77W are also likely seeing more reduction in the future which will be clarified during the 2Q earning calls.

Quite surprised he didn't mention any A321-200 or A320-200 if they will see reduction?. I suspect most will likely be replaced with the A321neo once delivery resume in 2022 or 2023 while others will be transffered to GAP.

RP-C3266 returned to MNL from ASP last 9 Feb... makes sense to not repaint it if it's going to exit the fleet. Off to join the other birds at Allegiant?

Sad to see the PR birds go, especially -C7777, reminds me of the days as a young avgeek when I was excited to see the new 77Ws at T2 during my visits to Manila. I think it may find a new life as a freighter, at worst a parts source.

Additionally, I could see the Mainline A320s going away soon, RP-C8612 and RP-C8620 to my knowledge haven't flown since the initial lockdown. Hopefully the older config A330s are the ones to be returned, retiring the refurbished ones would be a waste of money.

Devilfish · Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:27 am

AB330 wrote:
The reason why they are considering the A350 is the lease rate is high and the routes they used LHR and JFK are low demand. Unless lessor are willing to reduced the rate for the A350 there is a good chance will see a reduction of 2 to 3 A359 in the fleet.

Precisely the reasons I cited to justify right-sizing. Lessors might be persuaded to cut lease rates substantially, as placing used A359s at similar rates with another airline would be quite difficult now. If lessors were unbending still, Airbus may provide a solution with their non-moving model which can also do LHR nonstop and JFK with a stop @ YVR should PR continue to see value in both destinations.....

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=MNL-DXB-LH ... /HNL&DU=nm

Would really like to see this 'nose art' bequeathed to another model... :cheerful:

...

AB330 wrote:
additionally he mentioned that the B77W are also likely seeing more reduction in the future which will be clarified during the 2Q earning calls.

That is very pragmatic and perhaps inevitable as LAX and SFO are just about the only routes with the demand to fill 77Ws from MNL nowadays, if at that. In case the situation finally goes back to normal (nobody is certain when that would be) maybe PR could replace their returned frames with the A350K. :optimist:

Philippine747 wrote:
Hopefully the older config A330s are the ones to be returned, retiring the refurbished ones would be a waste of money.

Makes the most sense, as the refurbished ones would be less densely configured and have better IFE and amenities.

The industry upheaval is also having a big impact on the MRO provider at NAIA..... :down:

https://business.inquirer.net/317609/lu ... 0-in-april

Meanwhile, discussions in SkyscraperCity about the NAIA Rehab focusing on what could be done to its surroundings were it to be actually retained reminded me of this image I posted here four years ago..... :wideeyed:

https://content.presspage.com/uploads/8 ... .png?10000

Speculators and developers could buy out the properties in front of the terminals inside Vitalez Compound from their owners if they really wanted to gentrify the area. NAIA's environs are long in need of urban renewal anyway. :old:

flyingdoc787 · Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:39 am

Sad to hear about RP-C7777. I was touring the Boeing plant in Seattle in 2009 (IIRC), and I saw her there as she was in her final stages of production. She was all dressed up and getting ready to fly to Manila in a few days’ time. I wish her many more years of flying!

AB330 · Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:14 am

Devilfish wrote:
AB330 wrote:
The reason why they are considering the A350 is the lease rate is high and the routes they used LHR and JFK are low demand. Unless lessor are willing to reduced the rate for the A350 there is a good chance will see a reduction of 2 to 3 A359 in the fleet.

Precisely the reasons I cited to justify right-sizing. Lessors might be persuaded to cut lease rates substantially, as placing used A359s at similar rates with another airline would be quite difficult now. If lessors were unbending still, Airbus may provide a solution with their non-moving model which can also do LHR nonstop and JFK with a stop @ YVR should PR continue to see value in both destinations.....

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=MNL-DXB-LH ... /HNL&DU=nm

Would really like to see this 'nose art' bequeathed to another model... ...

:

That reminds PAL still has options for 6 additional A359 Which previously they mentioned where to be converted to the larger A351 I imagine those plans are postponed indefinitely. So even if PAL return 2-3 of there current A359 they could activate there six options in the future if they where to expanded again or right-sized there exsisting long-hul network.

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