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SANFan
Posts: 6272
Joined: Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:10 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:28 am

SAN has closed out 2020 Pax Traffic with the Dec report posted today. For anyone interested, here are some of the key numbers. For anyone REALLY interested, you may find the reports at SAN.org, in the News Room, by selecting "Air Traffic Reports" on the left side of the page.

TOTAL PAX served in 2020: 9,238,882; for comparison, 2019 saw 25.2M pax use SDIA ending last year down 71% y-o-y!
TL PAX served in Dec 2020: 608,847 while Dec 2019 saw 2,131,289; of note, Nov 2020 saw 682,517, more than Dec!
INTL PAX served in Dec, 2020: 9,623; in comparison, Dec 2019 served 87,284 Intl pax, for a decrease of 89% y-o-y;
TL INTL PAX served in 2020: 247,349; 2019 saw a total of 1.053,772 Intl pax use our airport;
Estimated LF for Dec 2020 was 49%; average load factor for the year was 57%, for 2019, 83%;
Ops thru FIS for Dec 2020 totaled 63 compared to 191 in Dec 2019, a 67% reduction. Those 63 were all/only AS's Mexico flights btw!

And here are the Market Share numbers for Dec 2020 for most of the cx at SAN last year:
WN 29.2%: has been sliding steadily downward since last April when they peaked at an incredible 61%! [% in Feb '20: 40.9.]
AS 20.4%: has been climbing steadily upward since July, almost doubling their % in that time! [% in Feb '20 was 13.4]
DL 15.0%: increased market share since May/June when they were at ~9%; peaked in Sept with 16%. [% in Feb '20: 11.3]
UA 13.4%: increasing since a low of ~6% in Jun/Jul reaching this peak in Dec. [% in Feb '20 was 12.2]
AA 12.5%: were at their low of ~11% in May/Jun and have yo-yo'd a bit with small gains/losses. [% in Feb '20: 11.7]
F9 3.3%; not a major player of course; peaked in Oct for some reason at 4%. [% in Feb '20 was 2.2]
B6 2.2%; has varied between 1 and 2% all year with a high of 2.7% in July. [% in Feb '20: 1.9]
NK 2.0%; another roller coaster ride last year with a low of .7% in June, to a high a month later of 4.9! [% in Feb '20: 1.9]

I guess we'll see decreases in the INTL pax counts for at least the beginning of 2021, maybe even in TL pax. Ugggh!
The market shares are interesting to watch. To see WN spinning down since they declared SAN no longer a growth point in their network while AS has pretty much taken their SAN ops in the other direction! To see both those cx in the 20s in market share now is amazing, while all the remaining cx are basically holding steady all year. At some point, WN may step on the gas but will they ever return to the 35-40% region again?

For many reasons I'm very happy to see 2020 come to a close but I'm a bit concerned about how 2021 is going to go - prolly not as nicely as I had hoped...

bb
 
kfinger
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Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2019 9:03 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:12 am

Will BFL-SAN return? It was popular during the brief time it was available in 2007.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 1818
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:58 pm

kfinger wrote:
Will BFL-SAN return? It was popular during the brief time it was available in 2007.


From your mouth to ANY airline's ear (but especially Horizon)! I flew that five times in less than a year, and instead of a torturous 4+ hour drive through the Los Angeles metro area, it was 42 minutes wheels up to wheels down.

Unfortunately, Bakersfield isn't the least bit interested in encouraging businesses to its area that bring premium fares along with them, so it takes a subsidy by an already-established airline at BFL just to expand to another hub city. I know Covid skews the statistics completely, but remember that while Fresno (FAT), San Luis Obispo (SBP), and Santa Barbara (SBA) are always increasing their flight schedules, BFL languishes with a (sometimes) once daily to SFO and twice daily to DEN on UA, three dailies to PHX on AA, and a subsidized DFW flight. At its peak, FAT had more seats available commercially in the first half hour of morning operations than BFL did all day.

I always refer to BFL as "the asteroid belt", and LAX as "Jupiter", as the proximity of LAX to Bakersfield is the fatal blow. The economic gravity coupled with a mere +/- 2 hour drive (depending on the whims of the traffic Gods) means BFL will never come into its own. I even did a college presentation in the late 1980's on how to economically revive the area, including expanding Interstate 40 from Barstow to Paso Robles, along the path of Highway 58, turning Highway 99 into Interstate 7, and utilizing much of the area as a warehouse-shipping-distribution hub, as the relatively uncrowded freeways could handle the traffic without impacting city life or traffic too much. I was laughed at. I was called a Communist. I was even told, "we don't a f***-ing freeway on the west side of town - and it's NEVER going to happen!"

Today, south of the junction of Highway 99 and Interstate 5, there are quite a few warehouse-shipping-distribution hubs. Today Bakersfield is undergoing 50+ years of neglected infrastructure and traffic upgrades. Today, painfully, Highway 58 is being extended all the way to Interstate 5. All the things I predicted were eventually going to have to happen? They're finally happening.

And the airport? Well, they've got the runway, they've got the facilities, and they've got the room - but not a lot of passengers. And not a lot of demand for anything new, and premium traffic is, quite literally almost non-existent. So, the chances of SAN-BFL returning? Anything is possible, of course, but until there's premium demand, not in my lifetime.
 
11C
Posts: 677
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:43 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
kfinger wrote:
Will BFL-SAN return? It was popular during the brief time it was available in 2007.


From your mouth to ANY airline's ear (but especially Horizon)! I flew that five times in less than a year, and instead of a torturous 4+ hour drive through the Los Angeles metro area, it was 42 minutes wheels up to wheels down.

Unfortunately, Bakersfield isn't the least bit interested in encouraging businesses to its area that bring premium fares along with them, so it takes a subsidy by an already-established airline at BFL just to expand to another hub city. I know Covid skews the statistics completely, but remember that while Fresno (FAT), San Luis Obispo (SBP), and Santa Barbara (SBA) are always increasing their flight schedules, BFL languishes with a (sometimes) once daily to SFO and twice daily to DEN on UA, three dailies to PHX on AA, and a subsidized DFW flight. At its peak, FAT had more seats available commercially in the first half hour of morning operations than BFL did all day.

I always refer to BFL as "the asteroid belt", and LAX as "Jupiter", as the proximity of LAX to Bakersfield is the fatal blow. The economic gravity coupled with a mere +/- 2 hour drive (depending on the whims of the traffic Gods) means BFL will never come into its own. I even did a college presentation in the late 1980's on how to economically revive the area, including expanding Interstate 40 from Barstow to Paso Robles, along the path of Highway 58, turning Highway 99 into Interstate 7, and utilizing much of the area as a warehouse-shipping-distribution hub, as the relatively uncrowded freeways could handle the traffic without impacting city life or traffic too much. I was laughed at. I was called a Communist. I was even told, "we don't a f***-ing freeway on the west side of town - and it's NEVER going to happen!"

Today, south of the junction of Highway 99 and Interstate 5, there are quite a few warehouse-shipping-distribution hubs. Today Bakersfield is undergoing 50+ years of neglected infrastructure and traffic upgrades. Today, painfully, Highway 58 is being extended all the way to Interstate 5. All the things I predicted were eventually going to have to happen? They're finally happening.

And the airport? Well, they've got the runway, they've got the facilities, and they've got the room - but not a lot of passengers. And not a lot of demand for anything new, and premium traffic is, quite literally almost non-existent. So, the chances of SAN-BFL returning? Anything is possible, of course, but until there's premium demand, not in my lifetime.


If the central coast could continue to grow unabated I could see the I-40 extension, but the vast amounts of public land, and the still working ranches that take up a lot of the balance of the open land seem to have a stranglehold on growth, as does the sentiment in many of the local governments. Making 99 into a real freeway should happen. As it currently exists, it leaves a lot to be desired as far as safety, efficiency, and viability as an alternate to I-5. Personally, I’m grateful for Camp Pendleton, and the entire central coast for creating areas where you can still see how California once looked, and where you don’t have to look at more endless miles of concrete.
 
ibthebigd
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:16 am

The 99 should become part of the Interstate system

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1838
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:19 am

ibthebigd wrote:
The 99 should become part of the Interstate system

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


There are plans to make it Interstate 9, but there has not been a significant push to actually make it happen. It's basically an interstate already, with the last non-freeway stretches having been replaced about 10 years ago, and only a small handful of existing overpasses and shoulders still falling shy of interstate standards.
 
AC4500
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:41 am

Well, the previously planned 3/11 PDX-SAN resumption on WN was just axed. :-/
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:31 am

AC4500 wrote:
Well, the previously planned 3/11 PDX-SAN resumption on WN was just axed. :-/

AFAIK, the only SAN-PDX filghts were a few r/t added only for the Spring Break 2021 period; the route, along with about 9 others, was "officially" dropped by WN with the November 2020 sked.

As evidence, WN's Summer 2021 sked, as it exists today, to the best of my knowledge, shows no nonstop service between SAN and ELP, MSY, OMA, MCO, PDX, PVR, SEA, GEG and TPA. (These were pretty much the routes that were dropped last November.) Unlike AS and HA, they don't even seem able to get a nonstop to Maui up and running from SAN... On the positive side, ORF is still -- as of now -- being added as a brand new daily nonstop beginning in late March!

Overall, WN continues a downward slide in number of flights, total nonstop destinations, and in market share here at SDIA. It's a shame but hopefully not "permanent forever".... Perhaps when the new T1 opens -- whenever that will be -- WN might seek again to make SAN one of their larger stations.

bb
 
vedatil4
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Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:44 pm

I found a recent article where the director of Tijuana airport mentions working on connectivity with San Diego airport. Are the CBX vans even allowed to bring people to SAN? I've seen them at Santa Fe Depot but not at the airport. The passenger transfers should be made easier to stimulate business for both airports.
 
AC4500
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:39 pm

Per Alaska's most recent schedule update, they are getting rid of SAN-FLL for the summer season, which is quite odd IMO, especially since they plan on increasing the frequency from 4x weekly to 1x daily during spring break. The route will be suspended from 4/4 to 10/6. I guess JetBlue must really have the upper hand on this particular route.
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:56 am

AC4500 wrote:
Per Alaska's most recent schedule update, they are getting rid of SAN-FLL for the summer season, which is quite odd IMO, especially since they plan on increasing the frequency from 4x weekly to 1x daily during spring break. The route will be suspended from 4/4 to 10/6. I guess JetBlue must really have the upper hand on this particular route.

Yes AC4', I'm surprised as well. Especially to see AS increase the route to Daily then completely drop it for several months... Another thing that is curious is that as of now, PDX-FLL is continuing all summer! And of course we have to remember that this could all still change. I doubt that Blue is outperforming AS on the route to any sizable degree from things I've heard and seen. At least FLL is currently scheduled to return in the Fall. (And btw, you may not have noticed that CUN is also due to return on November 19!)

Here are a couple of other new findings on the advanced AS skeds that may interest some folks out there. These are new flights not in the schedules a week ago!
> JAC will still stop on Apr 11 -- I think due to runway construction -- but is now due to return on May 22, and run thru the summer! The summer sked shows flights at 3x weekly. Jackson Hole does not appear to be just a winter ski destination from SAN after all! And this is not surprising to me.
> Both HNL & OGG service is showing as increasing to Double-Daily effective May 20! That will give AS 6 daily departures to Hawaii this summer! Wow! If this holds up, I can't help but think that AS is working at increasing connection options thru SAN; this change will provide red-eyes from both HNL & OGG to SAN, and offering connections from Hawaii to such morning-departure destinations as AUS, BOI, BOS, FAT, JAC, EWR, MCO, SMF...! We'll have to see how many of these cities will see a return schedule thru SAN.
> SBA & SBP are now scheduled to begin on 6/17 and should remain year-round routes.

One thing is apparent. AS appears to be intent on increasing SAN-service this year and I find that very promising and exciting!

bb
 
AC4500
Posts: 1629
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:05 pm

SANFan wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Per Alaska's most recent schedule update, they are getting rid of SAN-FLL for the summer season, which is quite odd IMO, especially since they plan on increasing the frequency from 4x weekly to 1x daily during spring break. The route will be suspended from 4/4 to 10/6. I guess JetBlue must really have the upper hand on this particular route.

Yes AC4', I'm surprised as well. Especially to see AS increase the route to Daily then completely drop it for several months... Another thing that is curious is that as of now, PDX-FLL is continuing all summer! And of course we have to remember that this could all still change. I doubt that Blue is outperforming AS on the route to any sizable degree from things I've heard and seen. At least FLL is currently scheduled to return in the Fall. (And btw, you may not have noticed that CUN is also due to return on November 19!)

Here are a couple of other new findings on the advanced AS skeds that may interest some folks out there. These are new flights not in the schedules a week ago!
> JAC will still stop on Apr 11 -- I think due to runway construction -- but is now due to return on May 22, and run thru the summer! The summer sked shows flights at 3x weekly. Jackson Hole does not appear to be just a winter ski destination from SAN after all! And this is not surprising to me.
> Both HNL & OGG service is showing as increasing to Double-Daily effective May 20! That will give AS 6 daily departures to Hawaii this summer! Wow! If this holds up, I can't help but think that AS is working at increasing connection options thru SAN; this change will provide red-eyes from both HNL & OGG to SAN, and offering connections from Hawaii to such morning-departure destinations as AUS, BOI, BOS, FAT, JAC, EWR, MCO, SMF...! We'll have to see how many of these cities will see a return schedule thru SAN.
> SBA & SBP are now scheduled to begin on 6/17 and should remain year-round routes.

One thing is apparent. AS appears to be intent on increasing SAN-service this year and I find that very promising and exciting!

bb

At this point, I think PDX-FLL continuing throughout the summer is probably reminiscent of the lack of competition on that route. B6 did start that route, but they had a grand total of just three round-trip FLL-PDX flights during the holiday season before they suspended PDX entirely until April. Even though SAN-FLL is likely a naturally higher demand route than PDX-FLL, B6 is still on SAN-FLL and AA is on SAN-MIA as well, so AS has a bit more room to work with in terms of market share on PDX-FLL than they would on SAN-FLL. With that being said, it's still very surprising to see them suspend that route though.

As for Hawaii, it's great to see AS defending their own against WN on their SAN-Hawaii routes. Even though I'm sure loyal WN flyers in the San Diego area have long-waited for WN to launch Hawaii flights from SAN, Alaska's long history on these routes will bode well for them in terms of customer retention, and their willingness to fight WN definitely shows their commitment to their SAN-based customers.

This may be stretching things a bit, but I almost wonder if in 4 to 5 years AS will end up having a stronger market share in the San Diego area than WN does. However, I don't really think that could ever happen unless AS would be willing to start ~10x daily flights on routes like SAN-LAS/OAK/PHX/SJC/SMF.
 
lhpdx
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:23 pm

SANFan wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Per Alaska's most recent schedule update, they are getting rid of SAN-FLL for the summer season, which is quite odd IMO, especially since they plan on increasing the frequency from 4x weekly to 1x daily during spring break. The route will be suspended from 4/4 to 10/6. I guess JetBlue must really have the upper hand on this particular route.

Yes AC4', I'm surprised as well. Especially to see AS increase the route to Daily then completely drop it for several months... Another thing that is curious is that as of now, PDX-FLL is continuing all summer! And of course we have to remember that this could all still change. I doubt that Blue is outperforming AS on the route to any sizable degree from things I've heard and seen. At least FLL is currently scheduled to return in the Fall. (And btw, you may not have noticed that CUN is also due to return on November 19!)

Here are a couple of other new findings on the advanced AS skeds that may interest some folks out there. These are new flights not in the schedules a week ago!
> JAC will still stop on Apr 11 -- I think due to runway construction -- but is now due to return on May 22, and run thru the summer! The summer sked shows flights at 3x weekly. Jackson Hole does not appear to be just a winter ski destination from SAN after all! And this is not surprising to me.
> Both HNL & OGG service is showing as increasing to Double-Daily effective May 20! That will give AS 6 daily departures to Hawaii this summer! Wow! If this holds up, I can't help but think that AS is working at increasing connection options thru SAN; this change will provide red-eyes from both HNL & OGG to SAN, and offering connections from Hawaii to such morning-departure destinations as AUS, BOI, BOS, FAT, JAC, EWR, MCO, SMF...! We'll have to see how many of these cities will see a return schedule thru SAN.
> SBA & SBP are now scheduled to begin on 6/17 and should remain year-round routes.

One thing is apparent. AS appears to be intent on increasing SAN-service this year and I find that very promising and exciting!

bb




With all of this growth, I could easily see AS SAN station surpassing PDX within the next five years..................
 
AC4500
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:39 pm

lhpdx wrote:
SANFan wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
Per Alaska's most recent schedule update, they are getting rid of SAN-FLL for the summer season, which is quite odd IMO, especially since they plan on increasing the frequency from 4x weekly to 1x daily during spring break. The route will be suspended from 4/4 to 10/6. I guess JetBlue must really have the upper hand on this particular route.

Yes AC4', I'm surprised as well. Especially to see AS increase the route to Daily then completely drop it for several months... Another thing that is curious is that as of now, PDX-FLL is continuing all summer! And of course we have to remember that this could all still change. I doubt that Blue is outperforming AS on the route to any sizable degree from things I've heard and seen. At least FLL is currently scheduled to return in the Fall. (And btw, you may not have noticed that CUN is also due to return on November 19!)

Here are a couple of other new findings on the advanced AS skeds that may interest some folks out there. These are new flights not in the schedules a week ago!
> JAC will still stop on Apr 11 -- I think due to runway construction -- but is now due to return on May 22, and run thru the summer! The summer sked shows flights at 3x weekly. Jackson Hole does not appear to be just a winter ski destination from SAN after all! And this is not surprising to me.
> Both HNL & OGG service is showing as increasing to Double-Daily effective May 20! That will give AS 6 daily departures to Hawaii this summer! Wow! If this holds up, I can't help but think that AS is working at increasing connection options thru SAN; this change will provide red-eyes from both HNL & OGG to SAN, and offering connections from Hawaii to such morning-departure destinations as AUS, BOI, BOS, FAT, JAC, EWR, MCO, SMF...! We'll have to see how many of these cities will see a return schedule thru SAN.
> SBA & SBP are now scheduled to begin on 6/17 and should remain year-round routes.

One thing is apparent. AS appears to be intent on increasing SAN-service this year and I find that very promising and exciting!

bb




With all of this growth, I could easily see AS SAN station surpassing PDX within the next five years..................

I don't think so. If you're just talking about AS mainline, then there's a possibility that SAN could wind up with more destinations than PDX (especially to the east coast), but for AAG as a whole, I don't see that happening. Remember that AS has unsuccessfully tried routes such as SAN-ABQ/BWI/MCI/OMA (there may be others), which were all still operating from PDX pre-COVID.

AS has not yet launched anything like SAN-DEN/LAS/OAK/ORD/RNO/PHX, which AS has a fair amount of capacity to those destinations from PDX.
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:38 am

lhpdx wrote:
With all of this growth, I could easily see AS SAN station surpassing PDX within the next five years..................

Oh no, that won't happen. Mainly, there isn't the available space at SAN, and I'm not just talking the terminal but the entire airport. (If ever SAN builds another airport somewhere in the region, then I could possibly see AS@SAN growing a lot and I would love to think what things could end up looking like! But that possibility is extremely unlikely.) Wasn't AS in PDX about 150 daily departures pre-COVID? Or was it even more?

There's still lots of room for continued growth at SAN, and I do feel the traffic is there (~25M pax in 2019) but I don't know if we could ever become even a true hub for AAG... or get close to the number of daily flights that PDX sees. Maybe AS would like to grow SAN that big but I just don't think it's physically possible at our little 663 acre airport. And keep in mind there's still only 1 runway!

bb
 
phxa340
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:21 am

Re: AS and FLL , I think it’s smart to pull out and let B6 get there $129 one way fare , the yields IMO have always been garbage on this route ... the demand from SAN to FLL is questionable at best ... if AS would just start a SAN-PHX flight they could probably command the same fares that B6 does to FLL (post Covid).
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:26 pm

phxa340 wrote:
If AS would just start a SAN-PHX flight they could probably command the same fares that B6 does to FLL (post Covid).

I think it's a matter of WHEN SAN-PHX will be flown by AS, not IF. Of course WHEN is a big question these days, eh? As AAG continues to grow their Focus City - South, PHX has to be one of the routes their growing base in San Diego demands.

The only issue is that their partner, AA, has a base at Sky Harbor, and connects that hub nicely with SAN. So does AS continue to codeshare on AA metal or do they start serving it themselves? Finally, with AS and AA sharing T2E at SDIA, connections between the 2 cx are just about as good as online ones.

bb
 
wedgetail737
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:02 am

I doubt AS will ever fly SAN-PHX simply because of the fact that both WN and AA have that market covered and I'm sure there not a whole lot of yield on that route. But never say never.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 06, 2021 1:05 am

SANFan wrote:
SAN has closed out 2020 Pax Traffic with the Dec report posted today. For anyone interested, here are some of the key numbers. For anyone REALLY interested, you may find the reports at SAN.org, in the News Room, by selecting "Air Traffic Reports" on the left side of the page.

TOTAL PAX served in 2020: 9,238,882; for comparison, 2019 saw 25.2M pax use SDIA ending last year down 71% y-o-y!
TL PAX served in Dec 2020: 608,847 while Dec 2019 saw 2,131,289; of note, Nov 2020 saw 682,517, more than Dec!
INTL PAX served in Dec, 2020: 9,623; in comparison, Dec 2019 served 87,284 Intl pax, for a decrease of 89% y-o-y;
TL INTL PAX served in 2020: 247,349; 2019 saw a total of 1.053,772 Intl pax use our airport;
Estimated LF for Dec 2020 was 49%; average load factor for the year was 57%, for 2019, 83%;
Ops thru FIS for Dec 2020 totaled 63 compared to 191 in Dec 2019, a 67% reduction. Those 63 were all/only AS's Mexico flights btw!

And here are the Market Share numbers for Dec 2020 for most of the cx at SAN last year:
WN 29.2%: has been sliding steadily downward since last April when they peaked at an incredible 61%! [% in Feb '20: 40.9.]
AS 20.4%: has been climbing steadily upward since July, almost doubling their % in that time! [% in Feb '20 was 13.4]
DL 15.0%: increased market share since May/June when they were at ~9%; peaked in Sept with 16%. [% in Feb '20: 11.3]
UA 13.4%: increasing since a low of ~6% in Jun/Jul reaching this peak in Dec. [% in Feb '20 was 12.2]
AA 12.5%: were at their low of ~11% in May/Jun and have yo-yo'd a bit with small gains/losses. [% in Feb '20: 11.7]
F9 3.3%; not a major player of course; peaked in Oct for some reason at 4%. [% in Feb '20 was 2.2]
B6 2.2%; has varied between 1 and 2% all year with a high of 2.7% in July. [% in Feb '20: 1.9]
NK 2.0%; another roller coaster ride last year with a low of .7% in June, to a high a month later of 4.9! [% in Feb '20: 1.9]

I guess we'll see decreases in the INTL pax counts for at least the beginning of 2021, maybe even in TL pax. Ugggh!
The market shares are interesting to watch. To see WN spinning down since they declared SAN no longer a growth point in their network while AS has pretty much taken their SAN ops in the other direction! To see both those cx in the 20s in market share now is amazing, while all the remaining cx are basically holding steady all year. At some point, WN may step on the gas but will they ever return to the 35-40% region again?

For many reasons I'm very happy to see 2020 come to a close but I'm a bit concerned about how 2021 is going to go - prolly not as nicely as I had hoped...

bb


I remember in another thread you had mentioned SAN was underserved.

I remember my first time flying out of SAN in the 1980's when I flew PSA from SAN to LAS to catch Sunworld (JK) from LAS to OAK. And I remember seeing a great variety of airlines serving SAN ranging from PA's Dash 7 to Ozark's DC-9-30...and from British Caledonian to Aero California. I thought SAN was a pretty diverse and interesting airport back in those days.
 
gmcc
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:36 pm

AS 737-9 heading down to SAN, probably for gate fit tests etc, looks to be arriving around 4:30 so if you can make it it might be pretty good light for pictures.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N913AK
 
vedatil4
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:36 am

An interesting article about the CBX bridge just popped up on a Spanish language aviation news website. I know this isn't San Diego news exactly but something is being built at TIJ that will be either for our benefit or as competition. Here are the key points in the article. My comments are shown in parentheses:

- The new international arrivals terminal should be completed by December of 2021. (Although a different article states that the overall TIJ remodel won't finish until 2024.)
- They're quoting the CBX director as stating that international passengers will be able to choose to enter the USA or Mexico. (I think this is the first official confirmation of the "in-transit" aspect of the new terminal building being built.)
- The recent TJX iata code they obtained is meant to make it easier to market flights to southern CA folks. (It wasn't just to make it easier to include the bridge tickets with the airline tickets as some suggested. There's a deeper meaning to this new code IATA code IMHO.)
- No covid test will be needed to use the CBX bridge since it's a land crossing into the USA. (As opposed to an international flight arriving at LAX for example. This seems to give TIJ a loophole status. I imagine passengers who were going to fly USA to points in Mexico round-trip could now fly into SAN walk across into TIJ, and fly from there and back instead to avoid the covid test.)
- In 2019 (before covid obviously) 73% of passengers were American, Foreigners, or US residents. Only 27% of the passengers at TIJ were Mexican. (Again, current construction efforts will mostly benefit people from the USA side of the border.)

For reference, this is the article (in spanish): https://a21.com.mx/aeropuertos/2021/02/ ... ion-de-cbx
 
SanBdlFly
Posts: 10
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:57 pm

As some of you may have seen, SAN was included in the crazy 30+ Allegiant Air Route announcement! Service to Bozeman (BZN) begins 6/3/21, Des Moines (DSM) 6/1/21, Kalispell (FCA) 5/28/21, Pasco/Tri Cities WA (PSC) 5/28/21, and Phoenix/Mesa (AZA) 5/27/21! So glad we’re getting more Allegiant routes-I’ve always suspected Phoenix would be added. Checking the update route map it appears that all of our routes are still on there including TUL and FSD so hopefully they’re here to stay. First the American announcement and now Allegiant! Wow! A lot of new routes :)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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SANFan
Posts: 6272
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:14 pm

SanBdlFly wrote:
As some of you may have seen, SAN was included in the crazy 30+ Allegiant Air Route announcement! Service to Bozeman (BZN) begins 6/3/21, Des Moines (DSM) 6/1/21, Kalispell (FCA) 5/28/21, Pasco/Tri Cities WA (PSC) 5/28/21, and Phoenix/Mesa (AZA) 5/27/21! So glad we’re getting more Allegiant routes-I’ve always suspected Phoenix would be added. Checking the update route map it appears that all of our routes are still on there including TUL and FSD so hopefully they’re here to stay. First the American announcement and now Allegiant! Wow! A lot of new routes :)

Thanks for reporting the great news SANBDL'. I'm sorry, what AA announcement? I'm not aware of anything AA has done lately at SAN. Please explain.

To summarize a bit, these are the destinations for G4 from SAN in 2021 so far:
1. AZA
2. BIL
3. BLI
4. BZN
5. DSM
6. ELP
7. EUG
8. FCA
9. FSD
10. IDA
11. LAS
12. MFR
13. PSC
14. SCK
15. TUL
That's pretty impressive! My first question is will G4 finally base a plane/crew at SAN? I'll have to take a look at schedules and see if they still plan running most of these routes out of SAN after bringing the planes in from LAS as they did last summer or will they have different plans this year? Looks like traffic thru T1W will be going up from, IMO, an unexpected source!

In other new-route news, AS has delayed the inaugural of SAN-JFK until late May... Speaking of AS, that list of destinations from Allegiant sure has a lot of names that could fit on AS's SAN route map... Interesting that we might be seeing a much more serious player in town finally!

bb
 
Ishrion
Posts: 3637
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:31 pm

SANFan wrote:
SanBdlFly wrote:
As some of you may have seen, SAN was included in the crazy 30+ Allegiant Air Route announcement! Service to Bozeman (BZN) begins 6/3/21, Des Moines (DSM) 6/1/21, Kalispell (FCA) 5/28/21, Pasco/Tri Cities WA (PSC) 5/28/21, and Phoenix/Mesa (AZA) 5/27/21! So glad we’re getting more Allegiant routes-I’ve always suspected Phoenix would be added. Checking the update route map it appears that all of our routes are still on there including TUL and FSD so hopefully they’re here to stay. First the American announcement and now Allegiant! Wow! A lot of new routes :)

Thanks for reporting the great news SANBDL'. I'm sorry, what AA announcement? I'm not aware of anything AA has done lately at SAN. Please explain.


I think he's talking about the MIA-TLV and other new AA routes from yesterday. Not related to SAN.

The past few days have been filled with new routes from several airlines.
 
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SANFan
Posts: 6272
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:39 pm

Ishrion wrote:
SANFan wrote:
SanBdlFly wrote:
As some of you may have seen, SAN was included in the crazy 30+ Allegiant Air Route announcement! Service to Bozeman (BZN) begins 6/3/21, Des Moines (DSM) 6/1/21, Kalispell (FCA) 5/28/21, Pasco/Tri Cities WA (PSC) 5/28/21, and Phoenix/Mesa (AZA) 5/27/21! So glad we’re getting more Allegiant routes-I’ve always suspected Phoenix would be added. Checking the update route map it appears that all of our routes are still on there including TUL and FSD so hopefully they’re here to stay. First the American announcement and now Allegiant! Wow! A lot of new routes :)

Thanks for reporting the great news SANBDL'. I'm sorry, what AA announcement? I'm not aware of anything AA has done lately at SAN. Please explain.


I think he's talking about the MIA-TLV and other new AA routes from yesterday. Not related to SAN.

Thanks Ishrion; that's kind of what I suspected. (I think I'd fall over in a dead faint the day AA does anything positive for SAN...)

bb
 
SanBdlFly
Posts: 10
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:46 pm

SANFan wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Thanks for reporting the great news SANBDL'. I'm sorry, what AA announcement? I'm not aware of anything AA has done lately at SAN. Please explain.


I think he's talking about the MIA-TLV and other new AA routes from yesterday. Not related to SAN.

Thanks Ishrion; that's kind of what I suspected. (I think I'd fall over in a dead faint the day AA does anything positive for SAN...)

bb

Yeah I meant in general the AA announcement. Sorry for the confusion!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 09, 2021 7:48 pm

A bit more on G4's announced route expansion this summer. I just spent some time on the website's flight schedules and discovered that all that service -- actually 12 routes as no service is shown to FSD, SCK & TUL -- takes place on either Mo/Fr or on Th/Su. (G4 is certainly efficient in scheduling and staffing!)

There appears to be no base established here and this summer G4 will be bringing a/c over to SAN from AZA as well as from LAS to provide the turns for most of the other routes. (A couple of the routes work differently as the inbounds from, for example, BLI & DSM simple turn and return to those 2 cities.)

SDF and TUL appear on the route map as "Seasonal" from SAN and I have no idea what that season might be since it's obviously not peak summer time... SCK shows as an "Active" route which it is not.

bb
 
kwp302
Posts: 251
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:53 am

SANFan wrote:
SDF and TUL appear on the route map as "Seasonal" from SAN and I have no idea what that season might be since it's obviously not peak summer time...

Do you mean FSD and TUL?
 
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SANFan
Posts: 6272
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:37 pm

kwp302 wrote:
SANFan wrote:
SDF and TUL appear on the route map as "Seasonal" from SAN and I have no idea what that season might be since it's obviously not peak summer time...

Do you mean FSD and TUL?

Yes, thanks for the correction.

I will also mention that in trying to build a turn-sked for G4 for early June, things do not balance at all (on their Thur/Sun operations) so my impression is there's more to come; could be FSD, SCK, and/or TUL, or something totally new. We are still 4 months out so there's time...

Conclusion: stay tuned!

bb
 
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hawaiian717
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Feb 13, 2021 11:47 pm

Falcon 900 overran the end of the runway this morning at MYF. No injuries reported.

https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/local ... f7f970ee75
 
san747
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Joined: Sun Dec 19, 2004 10:03 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 8:22 am

According to the SAN official Instagram account, Allegiant is adding SAN-FCA/BZN/PSC/DSM/IWA this summer. IWA/AZA starts on 5/27, FCA and PSC start 5/28, BZN on 6/3, and DSM on 7/1. Cool news, I believe all of these (excepting the Phoenix Mesa Gateway flight) represent new, never-before-served destinations for SAN!
 
ericm2031
Posts: 1592
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:46 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:24 pm

san747 wrote:
According to the SAN official Instagram account, Allegiant is adding SAN-FCA/BZN/PSC/DSM/IWA this summer. IWA/AZA starts on 5/27, FCA and PSC start 5/28, BZN on 6/3, and DSM on 7/1. Cool news, I believe all of these (excepting the Phoenix Mesa Gateway flight) represent new, never-before-served destinations for SAN!


These were announced last week, scroll up for the post.
 
san747
Posts: 4371
Joined: Sun Dec 19, 2004 10:03 am

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 12:26 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
san747 wrote:
According to the SAN official Instagram account, Allegiant is adding SAN-FCA/BZN/PSC/DSM/IWA this summer. IWA/AZA starts on 5/27, FCA and PSC start 5/28, BZN on 6/3, and DSM on 7/1. Cool news, I believe all of these (excepting the Phoenix Mesa Gateway flight) represent new, never-before-served destinations for SAN!


These were announced last week, scroll up for the post.


Oops! Shows how out of the loop I am. Good news no matter what!
 
Wneast
Posts: 1770
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:35 pm

Will southwest continue to add the rest of Hawaii flights they were planning in San Diego this year ? I know some flights were delayed because they didn’t have the planes, they said they would finish there hawaii expansion from San Diego whatever that means ?
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:41 pm

san747 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
san747 wrote:
According to the SAN official Instagram account, Allegiant is adding SAN-FCA/BZN/PSC/DSM/IWA this summer. IWA/AZA starts on 5/27, FCA and PSC start 5/28, BZN on 6/3, and DSM on 7/1. Cool news, I believe all of these (excepting the Phoenix Mesa Gateway flight) represent new, never-before-served destinations for SAN!

These were announced last week, scroll up for the post.

Oops! Shows how out of the loop I am. Good news no matter what!

Hey A, nice to see you back here; visit more often and stay in the loop for crying out loud! LOL!

Technically, I believe the AZA service is a first for that airport isn't it? Or did some small carrier once fly for a brief time there from SAN?

I've often thought that a regular flight between SAN and AZA would be successful on a permanent basis and wondered why Allegiant had never added it. I'm sure once there's a flight, quite a few people will opt for Mesa over Sky Harbor for the local hop to the coast. We'll have to see if G4 changes their mind and keeps it year-round and maybe even daily! (Especially considering G4 seems to be looking for good opportunities and some growth at SAN finally!)

bb
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 5:54 pm

Wneast wrote:
Will southwest continue to add the rest of Hawaii flights they were planning in San Diego this year ? I know some flights were delayed because they didn’t have the planes, they said they would finish there hawaii expansion from San Diego whatever that means ?

Good points Wn'. I was at least expecting to see Maui by this summer but unless I missed it, not even that has happened.

I keep reading on other threads about all kinds of expected HI expansion by the carrier from a whole host of new gateways in the west now that the MAX is in the fleet, but how about finishing up what you started here WN? I know WN is down on SAN these days but they can't be satisfied with a single HNL flight for their westward expansion from SDIA.

Since AS is still showing double-daily service starting on May 20 to both HNL and OGG, maybe they're anticipating WN to eventually start a OGG flight. I do love to see AS protecting their turf at their focus city as they continue to gain on WN in several categories here!

bb
 
Wneast
Posts: 1770
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:37 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Feb 18, 2021 6:05 pm

SANFan wrote:
Wneast wrote:
Will southwest continue to add the rest of Hawaii flights they were planning in San Diego this year ? I know some flights were delayed because they didn’t have the planes, they said they would finish there hawaii expansion from San Diego whatever that means ?

Good points Wn'. I was at least expecting to see Maui by this summer but unless I missed it, not even that has happened.

I keep reading on other threads about all kinds of expected HI expansion by the carrier from a whole host of new gateways in the west now that the MAX is in the fleet, but how about finishing up what you started here WN? I know WN is down on SAN these days but they can't be satisfied with a single HNL flight for their westward expansion from SDIA.

Since AS is still showing double-daily service starting on May 20 to both HNL and OGG, maybe they're anticipating WN to eventually start a OGG flight. I do love to see AS protecting their turf at their focus city as they continue to gain on WN in several categories here!

bb

I feel like in the next month or two they should announce more Hawaii flights, I have heard that there’s lots of flights that are supposed to come to a lot of airports from them and they are getting etops on the max 8 by may so probably well happen in the summer
 
cheapflier
Posts: 59
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:33 am

vedatil4 wrote:
I found a recent article where the director of Tijuana airport mentions working on connectivity with San Diego airport. Are the CBX vans even allowed to bring people to SAN? I've seen them at Santa Fe Depot but not at the airport. The passenger transfers should be made easier to stimulate business for both airports.


Yes. Any company is allowed to drop off at SAN, but they need a Ground Transportation permit to pick up passengers. None of CBX's contractors have the permit for a shuttle-type service (some can do a charter pickup, such as with RON-ing flight crews), which is why the CBX shuttles use Santa Fe Depot. I suppose if they wanted to get nasty they could dropoff just off the airport premises on the public street, such as McCain Rd, and have passengers walk into the airport.
 
vedatil4
Posts: 398
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:41 am

Is there any movement on the Grand Central Station where SpaWar is now idea? It seems like the project has died on the vine.

I'll believe a major public transportation project to SAN when I see it completed, operating, and I'm actually boarding a train.

But I'm also curious to see how a tunnel can be built under an active runway close to sea level.
 
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hawaiian717
Posts: 3723
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:08 am

vedatil4 wrote:
Is there any movement on the Grand Central Station where SpaWar is now idea? It seems like the project has died on the vine.


https://navwar-revitalization.com/

The Navy is working on the draft Environmental Impact Statement which is expected to be published early this year. Once it’s out expect to see more activity surrounding it.
 
vedatil4
Posts: 398
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 1:55 pm

hawaiian717 wrote:
vedatil4 wrote:
Is there any movement on the Grand Central Station where SpaWar is now idea? It seems like the project has died on the vine.


https://navwar-revitalization.com/

The Navy is working on the draft Environmental Impact Statement which is expected to be published early this year. Once it’s out expect to see more activity surrounding it.


Thanks for the link.

Getting an environmental impact report approved will take years. But progress is being made.

Aside from the tunnel, I'm also curious on how long the terminal will take to "pencil out"; centuries to recover the cost of construction?

Here's an obvious elephant-in-the-room idea the report should consider: build a new airport at Miramar. I know, I know; never gonna happen.
 
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hawaiian717
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:19 pm

vedatil4 wrote:
Here's an obvious elephant-in-the-room idea the report should consider: build a new airport at Miramar. I know, I know; never gonna happen.


Miramar is irrelevant to the EIR, since the EIR isn’t about airport development options, but about redevelopment of the NAVWAR Old Town Complex site, which was at one time the Convair factory.

Miramar also won’t happen, Marines aren’t invested in sharing or leaving and La Jolla/University City will never stop complaining about it (though the Marine Corps fighters are much louder than any civilian airliner and the noise can be constant when they do training operations with multiple touch and goes/missed approaches/go arounds).
 
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SANMAN66
Posts: 1135
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:29 pm

vedatil4 wrote:

But I'm also curious to see how a tunnel can be built under an active runway close to sea level.


I've been wondering the same thing, ever since they came up with that tunnel idea.
 
vedatil4
Posts: 398
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Fri Feb 19, 2021 10:10 pm

hawaiian717 wrote:
vedatil4 wrote:
Here's an obvious elephant-in-the-room idea the report should consider: build a new airport at Miramar. I know, I know; never gonna happen.


Miramar is irrelevant to the EIR, since the EIR isn’t about airport development options, but about redevelopment of the NAVWAR Old Town Complex site, which was at one time the Convair factory.

Miramar also won’t happen, Marines aren’t invested in sharing or leaving and La Jolla/University City will never stop complaining about it (though the Marine Corps fighters are much louder than any civilian airliner and the noise can be constant when they do training operations with multiple touch and goes/missed approaches/go arounds).


Both solid points. They can always say the tunnel is not meant for the airport but as some kind of exit from the complex.

As for a new airport in San Diego, I lost hope long ago. No local politician will ever champion an idea extremely unpopular in communities with deep pockets and political connections.

Good point on the Marine Corps noise. In a similar way, the noise made at North Island can be can't-even-think tremendous. I don't know how people living in the towers at the south end of Coronado can tolerate the helicopters going right by their windows.
 
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SANFan
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:08 pm

Intl update for SAN, according to my poking around here and there.

Good news: it appears that Japan Airlines is still planning on re-starting service here next week! We will hopefully see the 787 arrive at 09:55 on Tue, March 2, RON, and depart on Wed, March 3 back to Narita! The schedules are about the same as last year when they stopped most US flying except for the 26-hour RON here (which has already been discussed.) It looks like they will fly twice a week at least in the beginning, departing here at 11:55 on Wed and Sun! Thank you JL for at least giving SAN a shot (pardon the pun.) I hope it works out and we see the Crane visiting here more and more often as summer approaches!

Something interesting I noticed on the JL website is that the connections offered are all via DFW and ORD - a really swell routing between SAN and TYO! That is of course because there is no OW carrier anymore between SAN and LAX or, for that matter, between SAN and SFO. Ahem, yoo-hoo, Alaska, are you out there and hearing this? (Maybe they're waiting to officially become OW members before adding SAN-LAX service to fill that gap? And of course they already fly SAN-SFO so it might be nice for intl connecting purposes to have a OW carrier in that market too!)

Not good news: BA nor LH are showing any signs of life in SAN thru April. I for one am giving up trying to keep up with what might happen so I'll just wait 'til I see a report such as "Speedbird is reported over Balboa Park on final for 27!" to acknowledge that they are indeed back. Could be 2021, 2022 or ????

bb
 
maverick4002
Posts: 682
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Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:10 pm

Can I fly into San Diego and walk across the border into Tijuana? Like as a visitor or do I need another reason to cross?
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 1818
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:56 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
Can I fly into San Diego and walk across the border into Tijuana? Like as a visitor or do I need another reason to cross?


In normal times, absolutely. Take the 992 bus to the train station, then take the blue line trolley to Say Ysidro, and walk across! The east crossing is closer to the trolley; however, the west crossing is closer to downtown Tijuana.

The only crossing you need to a "reason" is CBX, and that would be a boarding pass for a flight from TIJ.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 1818
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:59 pm

So, in a completely undiscussed topic of San Diego aviation, a co-worker stumbled across one of these while cleaning out a house:

https://www.sandiego.gov/city-clerk/inforecords/mayoral-artifacts/gallery/lindbergh-field-coin-glass

Has anyone here ever seen or heard of this before?
 
maverick4002
Posts: 682
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:47 pm

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
Can I fly into San Diego and walk across the border into Tijuana? Like as a visitor or do I need another reason to cross?


In normal times, absolutely. Take the 992 bus to the train station, then take the blue line trolley to Say Ysidro, and walk across! The east crossing is closer to the trolley; however, the west crossing is closer to downtown Tijuana.

The only crossing you need to a "reason" is CBX, and that would be a boarding pass for a flight from TIJ.


Lol thanks but I mean like now. In Covid times. If I book a flight for next week, can I cross over?
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
Posts: 1818
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:24 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
Can I fly into San Diego and walk across the border into Tijuana? Like as a visitor or do I need another reason to cross?


In normal times, absolutely. Take the 992 bus to the train station, then take the blue line trolley to Say Ysidro, and walk across! The east crossing is closer to the trolley; however, the west crossing is closer to downtown Tijuana.

The only crossing you need to a "reason" is CBX, and that would be a boarding pass for a flight from TIJ.


Lol thanks but I mean like now. In Covid times. If I book a flight for next week, can I cross over?


That I do not know.
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