Welcome to San Diego Aviation Thread - 2021. Please continue to add your comments below

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Well, I didn't get to start the thread, but hopefully 2021 will be a year where a sense of "normalcy" returns (if there even such a thing anymore!)

I started a thread in Polls & Preferences that didn't go anywhere, really, that asked readers to speculate on future SAN and LAX to Europe and to Asia travel without the A380. Since it was announced that BA, JL, and the LH group are anxious to return to SAN when "we open up again", so to speak, but with so many airlines not returning to fly the A380, I am wondering what the future holds for Southern California.

Will LH continue with the A340-300 to SAN? Or will LH try the A330? Can that handle the cargo needs? What is LH thinking about now for its replacement? We know both the 772 and 773 can fly SAN-Europe, but is this a plane we might see LH eventually utilize for routes like us? And what will LAX see as A380s are pulled and other planes are implemented? I know old schedule levels won't be seen for a very long time, but LH's timetable for September/October 2021 shows 2x daily 748 LAX-FRA and 1x daily A350 LAX-MUC.

The pieces will slowly come into place as travel restrictions are eased. I hope by this time next year we are eagerly looking to see all the new and exciting things going on, once again, and SAN. Until that time, cheers to all for a brighter 2021, and happy flying!!

For those of you missing a widebody at SAN, DL has scheduled a one-off 763ER on its JFK-SAN-JFK turn flight on Sunday 10 Jan 21....that flight is normally operated by a 757 (Delta One config).

And a Happy New Year to you too, PSA'! And to everyone out there. (It's got to be better than 2020 no matter what!)

On top of my aviation wishlist for 2021 is to see the Terminal 1 replacement planning, design, and maybe even construction, continue to move forward. The momentum on the project exists, even though there may have been some slowing of it due to COVID, so as many things will hopefully brighten as we move thru 2021, I hope this project will continue on a positive path. Perhaps things will even accelerate as air travel and pax numbers at SAN continue to increase.

As you mentioned, PSA', things seem to be on track for The Big Three -- BA, JL and LH -- to get back in business here and that will be a big step to a return toward some sort of pre-COVID normalcy. It's, IMO, a total toss-up as to what type of equipment the intercontinental flights will start with, and further, what those flights will be operated with at the end of next year? I personally have put on the back burner any hopes of additional int'l flag cx announcing new service to our city anytime soon but I reserve the right to be very pleasantly surprised if it should happen!

Domestically, my hope is that all existing cx will eventually be back to offering first, the destinations we saw from them in early 2020, secondly, the frequencies of flights in those markets, and third, new destinations on their SAN route maps! I wish to acknowledge the great strides AS has made at the end of 2020, in the heat of COVID, in returning to serve pre-existing destinations -- so far including PAE, MCO, Hawaii, RDM, PVR & SJD -- as well as the many new ones that have already been added or announced -- CUN, FLL, JAC, MSO, SBA, JFK! (SBP, SMF, BOS, & EWR are again on the schedules in the Spring.) As long as pax numbers continue to climb during recovery, I have no doubt that we'll be seeing additional new routes slowly added by cx at SAN.

bb

I thought I saw in one of the OAG threads that JL would be re-starting SAN-NRT in February.

SANMAN66 wrote:

I thought I saw in one of the OAG threads that JL would be re-starting SAN-NRT in February.

It may be scheduled, but I think it is highly unlikely. With the advent of the new strain, Japan has locked down travel to only Japanese nationals. So doubtful they will have more than 2 or 3 US gateways. IMHO.

Just a few remarks as we start forward in 2021.

>> I expect SAN will end 2020 with about 9.3M total pax -- not as low as many cities and certainly not as high as some but pretty decent. (We're at 8.6M pax thru the end of November and 2019 ended with a total of 25.2M pax.) Some anecdotal reports that have appeared on A.net over the last few months have shown SAN to be recovering better than most CA cities as far as a ranking of total pax using those airports. Nationally, I've seen little to show how we are doing compared to others. I imagine we will see the final 2020 pax counts for most airports around the middle or 3rd week of January. Hopefully we'll see well over 10K int'l pax at SAN in December; the total for Nov was 9.1K. (For comparison, January 2020 saw 82,722 int'l pax at SDIA!)

>> Brand new routes already supposed to begin this year (2021) are (as of now and of course very subject to change):
>AS to SBA, MSO & JFK, all due to start in March or April and placed on advanced skeds just recently. (I expect these 3 routes should start as planned.)
>WN to ORF is due to start in March. This start has been delayed from January but I expect it WILL begin prior to summer.
Has anybody else heard of any other NEW routes I've missed?

>> I don't really know if there's any point at all in making predictions or even wishes for new routes, carriers, etc., for 2021 but what the hell, this IS A.net and that's what we do. So...
> I'd love to see even more new routes started by AS, especially as we wait to see what WN does. If WN continues with the many dropped routes and departures from SAN announced in May, including ELP, OMA, MCO, TPA, might AS pick some of them up again? (MCO is already re-started by AS with a goal of double-daily service in the market this year!) I would love to see AS again serve ELP, OMA & TPA, along with RDU, OAK, EUG, MFR and some sort of service to WAS. I certainly don't expect to see all of these routes added in 2021 by AS but a few of them, I can definitely see as very possible!
> B6 could add a couple more routes as they are another carrier, like AS, that's actively chasing leisure travel. Unfortunately, Blue's current preoccupation with LAX essentially seems to blind them to a lot of potential in SAN. But maybe RDU? TPA? MCO? (At least one of these would be terrific!) They of course currently serve just 4 destinations from here - JFK, BOS, FLL and EWR.
> WN - totally unkn what their viewpoint of SAN is these days. Even OGG is an unknown, let alone ELP and other cities I've noted above. They've begun a huge expansion by adding a bunch of new stations at large cities (e.g., ORD & IAH) let alone smaller ones such as FAT, SAV, JAN & SBA! So far, SAN has not been connected to any of these new cities but could WN be looking at the RDU market? MSP? JAX? Will they even re-enter the 2 Mexican markets they were serving at the first quarter of 2020 that they've totally turned over to AS?!
> I certainly don't foresee any startling new moves by any of the legacies or NK as SAN continues to stagnate with the latter. F9 and SY don't show any signs of doing much of anything exciting but who knows? G4 is a complete wildcard AFAIC. They made some very nice moves last summer with a whole slew of new routes (for a total of 10 including BIL, FSD, EUG, TUL) but are even those returning this year? Or expanding to more? Or could SAN even become a base finally for Allegiant with crew and a/c based here?

Come on now everyone, what are your 2021 thoughts about SDIA?

bb

Looks like G4 will operate all but FSD & TUL this year. According to their web-site BLI, BIL, IDA, ELP, EUG, MFR, SCK and LAS will return this summer.

It has been about five years since the consolidated rental car facility opened at SAN. Are there any updates on what will happen with the former East Harbor Island land where the majority of rental companies were located?

Coronado990 wrote:

Looks like G4 will operate all but FSD & TUL this year. According to their web-site BLI, BIL, IDA, ELP, EUG, MFR, SCK and LAS will return this summer.

Interesting and thanks for that '990. I was looking at some notes I made and TUL & FSD are the 2 longest routes started by G4 from SAN (1,237 & 1,336 miles resp.) so I hate to say it but maybe that's evidence that we'll see primarily shorter length routes from SAN than long ones... or maybe it's just a coincidence. Not that there aren't lots of short-ish possibilities left for G4 to try to SAN. I AM happy to see 8 of the 10 newest routes returning!

One other thing I'd like to share. In looking thru AS advance skeds, apparently they have dropped service to LIH (Kauai) for all of January and February due to a COVID pre-clear/testing issue but, optimistically, the flight is currently showing as beginning on March 1. Anyone from here planning an escape to the Garden Isle before March is gonna have to change planes somewhere; AS nonstops to the other Islands are fully operational as of now.

bb

RDU-SAN makes loads of sense for B6 to serve, and probably alongside MCO-SAN, are two no-brainer adds. I also think SFO-SAN is possible for B6 if there’s a significant SFO expansion which many have been discussing over at the JetBlue thread. I also think AUS-SAN could be possible for B6 if they add more flying to Austin. I agree B6 can do a lot more at SAN (lots of transcon that B6 can capitalize on), but EWR expansion will definitely be B6’s biggest focus in 2021.

AS adding SAN-IAD would be good. UA has an effective monopoly on the route and WN is seemingly allergic to transcon. I’m skeptical that TPAC service comes back to SAN in 2021. It would be a big development to see SAN-NRT come back this year... let’s keep our fingers crossed.

hbernal1 wrote:

RDU-SAN makes loads of sense for B6 to serve, and probably alongside MCO-SAN, are two no-brainer adds. I also think SFO-SAN is possible for B6 if there’s a significant SFO expansion which many have been discussing over at the JetBlue thread. I also think AUS-SAN could be possible for B6 if they add more flying to Austin. I agree B6 can do a lot more at SAN (lots of transcon that B6 can capitalize on), but EWR expansion will definitely be B6’s biggest focus in 2021.

AS adding SAN-IAD would be good. UA has an effective monopoly on the route and WN is seemingly allergic to transcon. I’m skeptical that TPAC service comes back to SAN in 2021. It would be a big development to see SAN-NRT come back this year... let’s keep our fingers crossed.

I do agree with your "Blue" comments, h', with a couple of additional thoughts.

I personally would rather see Blue jump into TPA-SAN as a (currently) un-served SAN-route than MCO which I'm sure will be re-started by WN and/or F9 in just a matter of time. (Plus AS has already shown their intent to serve SAN-MCO double-daily!) I also have a feeling that AS is looking closely at SAN-TPA to compliment their new LA-TPA route. I truly believe someone will be flying SAN-TPA in 2021 as cx continue to search for new leisure markets.

I think SAN-AUS could be started quickly by B6 without waiting for more flying at AUS; why not let SAN be the first? I also think Blue is in a position to add more transcon flying from SAN; I'd like to see PHL as one such route, subject to however B6's relationship with AA might affect this market. It's all a matter of how much Blue's current LAX-blinders hinder their study of the rest of the west coast, including the fact that SAN is a large city and not just a suburb of LA...

I have said for a while that AS needs some sort of service from SAN to WAS and the fact that they don't seem interested in using BWI for that purpose, and they can't serve DCA, then Dulles seems like the most probable answer to the question. I too hope we see that soon from AS before someone else jumps on it.

Finally, I wonder how important military traffic is in the question about when JL (or someone) might again connect SAN nonstop with Asia? I realize the corporate/business traffic is way down & will probably stay that way for a while but how much military business exists between here and the Asian east coast region? Enough to nudge JL toward flying NRT-SAN even just a couple of days a week for now? I really don't think they'd want to give up and just wait for someone else -- such as NH or KE representing the other alliances -- to jump into what was a pretty lucrative market for them...

bb

SANFan wrote:

Finally, I wonder how important military traffic is in the question about when JL (or someone) might again connect SAN nonstop with Asia? I realize the corporate/business traffic is way down & will probably stay that way for a while but how much military business exists between here and the Asian east coast region? Enough to nudge JL toward flying NRT-SAN even just a couple of days a week for now? I really don't think they'd want to give up and just wait for someone else -- such as NH or KE representing the other alliances -- to jump into what was a pretty lucrative market for them...
bb

You overlook little details like Fly America Act and the DOD travel management program. For example, LA-Tokyo contract is held by United in FY21.
While civilian government employees can often fly on codeshare flights operated by foreign carriers as part of the program, military must nearly always fly on flights operated by U.S. carrier with only few excepions.

UPlog wrote:

You overlook little details like Fly America Act and the DOD travel management program. For example, LA-Tokyo contract is held by United in FY21.
While civilian government employees can often fly on codeshare flights operated by foreign carriers as part of the program, military must nearly always fly on flights operated by U.S. carrier with only few excepions.

But SAN-TYO contract is held by American, which is the relevant city pair. It's also listed as nonstop, indicating American offered the JAL nonstop flight as a codeshare. With the current lack of a nonstop flight DoD travelers will obviously have to connect (and still would have had the option if for some reason they didn't want to take the nonstop), and even if they connect over LAX, they'd still be on American or JAL on the LAX-TYO segment, even though UA holds the contract for that city pair, since the contract refers to the start/end points of the passengers journey, not a specific segment.

Though if you want to get really fun, if there is no contract for the start/end point, city pair fares can be used for part of the journey or combined end-on-end, but the traveller is not obligated to use them. Most of the time though, the traveller will just choose whatever comes up in the Defense Travel System and not worry about such details.

I think B6 has the potential to offer a schedule from SAN that looks something like this:
5x BOS, 4x SFO, 3x LAS, 3x JFK, 2x EWR, 2x AUS, 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x RDU with seasonal CUN service. Mint does quite well to/from SAN. About 20 flights a day and those destinations I can see a lot of local pax enjoying B6. I’m not sure about B6 offering SAN-PHL, I think LAX would be the only west coast destination B6 would think about serving from PHL.

For JetBlue a lot of what happens comes down to where they choose to have the A220s. If they’re used a lot on the West Coast then I think some shorter routes from SAN are possible. I’m not too sure how TPA-SAN would do, but I think TPA-LAX is more likely. MCO, behind RDU, is the next natural destination because B6 has a focus city there and it might get more attention once they’re in the new terminal, but that could come in 2022.

I’m curious how well AS will do against AA, DL, and B6 on SAN-JFK. Mint on B6 does pretty well to JFK, but AS adding FLL-SAN might hurt B6 on a route that was mostly there for network reasons.

hbernal1 wrote:

I think B6 has the potential to offer a schedule from SAN that looks something like this:
5x BOS, 4x SFO, 3x LAS, 3x JFK, 2x EWR, 2x AUS, 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x RDU with seasonal CUN service. Mint does quite well to/from SAN. About 20 flights a day and those destinations I can see a lot of local pax enjoying B6. I’m not sure about B6 offering SAN-PHL, I think LAX would be the only west coast destination B6 would think about serving from PHL.

For JetBlue a lot of what happens comes down to where they choose to have the A220s. If they’re used a lot on the West Coast then I think some shorter routes from SAN are possible. I’m not too sure how TPA-SAN would do, but I think TPA-LAX is more likely. MCO, behind RDU, is the next natural destination because B6 has a focus city there and it might get more attention once they’re in the new terminal, but that could come in 2022.

I’m curious how well AS will do against AA, DL, and B6 on SAN-JFK. Mint on B6 does pretty well to JFK, but AS adding FLL-SAN might hurt B6 on a route that was mostly there for network reasons.

That would be quite ambitious. I think this year, you will only see them add rdu.

tphuang wrote:

hbernal1 wrote:

I think B6 has the potential to offer a schedule from SAN that looks something like this:
5x BOS, 4x SFO, 3x LAS, 3x JFK, 2x EWR, 2x AUS, 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x RDU with seasonal CUN service. Mint does quite well to/from SAN. About 20 flights a day and those destinations I can see a lot of local pax enjoying B6. I’m not sure about B6 offering SAN-PHL, I think LAX would be the only west coast destination B6 would think about serving from PHL.

For JetBlue a lot of what happens comes down to where they choose to have the A220s. If they’re used a lot on the West Coast then I think some shorter routes from SAN are possible. I’m not too sure how TPA-SAN would do, but I think TPA-LAX is more likely. MCO, behind RDU, is the next natural destination because B6 has a focus city there and it might get more attention once they’re in the new terminal, but that could come in 2022.

I’m curious how well AS will do against AA, DL, and B6 on SAN-JFK. Mint on B6 does pretty well to JFK, but AS adding FLL-SAN might hurt B6 on a route that was mostly there for network reasons.

That would be quite ambitious. I think this year, you will only see them add rdu.

I never said this will happen in 2021, or even at all, but that B6 can eventually get to offering that schedule from SAN if they commit the resources there. I still think SFO and LAX will be the most important west coast stations and will get the most expansion. We’re in agreement on RDU (I think MCO happens in 2022) being what B6 adds from SAN in 2021.

Would not hold my breath for JAL.
They cant even run their HND or NRT services daily to LAX.

Also, Japan is about to declare state of national emergency in Tokyo, so restrictions are only going to get tighter.

hawaiian717 wrote:

UPlog wrote:

You overlook little details like Fly America Act and the DOD travel management program. For example, LA-Tokyo contract is held by United in FY21.
While civilian government employees can often fly on codeshare flights operated by foreign carriers as part of the program, military must nearly always fly on flights operated by U.S. carrier with only few excepions.

But SAN-TYO contract is held by American, which is the relevant city pair. It's also listed as nonstop, indicating American offered the JAL nonstop flight as a codeshare. With the current lack of a nonstop flight DoD travelers will obviously have to connect (and still would have had the option if for some reason they didn't want to take the nonstop), and even if they connect over LAX, they'd still be on American or JAL on the LAX-TYO segment, even though UA holds the contract for that city pair, since the contract refers to the start/end points of the passengers journey, not a specific segment.

Though if you want to get really fun, if there is no contract for the start/end point, city pair fares can be used for part of the journey or combined end-on-end, but the traveller is not obligated to use them. Most of the time though, the traveller will just choose whatever comes up in the Defense Travel System and not worry about such details.

All good points that are appreciated. I just thought I had remembered reading (on A.net and elsewhere) that a lot of navy folks used JL's flight between SAN and NRT, including connections down to the Philippines,Guam, Korea, etc. Maybe there was more to it that I don't remember.

I guess this, like almost everything else these days, is complicated and involved. And way beyond my pay grade! Again, thanks all for the feedback.

bb

hbernal1 wrote:

I think B6 has the potential to offer a schedule from SAN that looks something like this:
5x BOS, 4x SFO, 3x LAS, 3x JFK, 2x EWR, 2x AUS, 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x RDU with seasonal CUN service. Mint does quite well to/from SAN. About 20 flights a day and those destinations I can see a lot of local pax enjoying B6. I’m not sure about B6 offering SAN-PHL, I think LAX would be the only west coast destination B6 would think about serving from PHL.

For JetBlue a lot of what happens comes down to where they choose to have the A220s. If they’re used a lot on the West Coast then I think some shorter routes from SAN are possible. I’m not too sure how TPA-SAN would do, but I think TPA-LAX is more likely. MCO, behind RDU, is the next natural destination because B6 has a focus city there and it might get more attention once they’re in the new terminal, but that could come in 2022.

I’m curious how well AS will do against AA, DL, and B6 on SAN-JFK. Mint on B6 does pretty well to JFK, but AS adding FLL-SAN might hurt B6 on a route that was mostly there for network reasons.

I like your thinking but it is quite optimistic. I think it's doable by other cx -- it has some similarity to what AS does from SAN -- but the problem is Blue's seemingly unfamiliarity with the west coast in general (as I've mentioned upthread.) They view LAX (and maybe SFO) as their only goals which I personally think is a mistake. I do want to push a bit on TPA however. Here are the latest DOT figures that i have in a couple of markets, based on DOT's 1Q2019, 2Q & 3Q Table 6:
SAN-TPA
1Q2019: 182 PDEW
2Q2019: 194 PDEW
3Q2019: 153 PDEW

SAN-RDU
1Q2019: 147 PDEW
2Q2019: 203 PDEW
3Q2019: 178 PDEW

Now these figures are obviously pre-COVID and if I remember correctly, both routes were served nonstop from SAN at that time (to some degree.) I know that current traffic levels are lower than these figures -- how low? -- but then nobody at all is serving either route. For airlines in the hunt for leisure travel markets, and new p-2-p routes in general, I think both of these markets are worth a try. I'm confident B6, AS or others could make them work but I think AS is the most likely due to their focus city operation at SDIA. If B6 won't consider them, it's a shame and they are truly missing some good opportunities.

bb

SANFan wrote:

hbernal1 wrote:

I think B6 has the potential to offer a schedule from SAN that looks something like this:
5x BOS, 4x SFO, 3x LAS, 3x JFK, 2x EWR, 2x AUS, 1x FLL, 1x MCO, 1x RDU with seasonal CUN service. Mint does quite well to/from SAN. About 20 flights a day and those destinations I can see a lot of local pax enjoying B6. I’m not sure about B6 offering SAN-PHL, I think LAX would be the only west coast destination B6 would think about serving from PHL.

For JetBlue a lot of what happens comes down to where they choose to have the A220s. If they’re used a lot on the West Coast then I think some shorter routes from SAN are possible. I’m not too sure how TPA-SAN would do, but I think TPA-LAX is more likely. MCO, behind RDU, is the next natural destination because B6 has a focus city there and it might get more attention once they’re in the new terminal, but that could come in 2022.

I’m curious how well AS will do against AA, DL, and B6 on SAN-JFK. Mint on B6 does pretty well to JFK, but AS adding FLL-SAN might hurt B6 on a route that was mostly there for network reasons.

I like your thinking but it is quite optimistic. I think it's doable by other cx -- it has some similarity to what AS does from SAN -- but the problem is Blue's seemingly unfamiliarity with the west coast in general (as I've mentioned upthread.) They view LAX (and maybe SFO) as their only goals which I personally think is a mistake. I do want to push a bit on TPA however. Here are the latest DOT figures that i have in a couple of markets, based on DOT's 1Q2019, 2Q & 3Q Table 6:
SAN-TPA
1Q2019: 182 PDEW
2Q2019: 194 PDEW
3Q2019: 153 PDEW

SAN-RDU
1Q2019: 147 PDEW
2Q2019: 203 PDEW
3Q2019: 178 PDEW

Now these figures are obviously pre-COVID and if I remember correctly, both routes were served nonstop from SAN at that time (to some degree.) I know that current traffic levels are lower than these figures -- how low? -- but then nobody at all is serving either route. For airlines in the hunt for leisure travel markets, and new p-2-p routes in general, I think both of these markets are worth a try. I'm confident B6, AS or others could make them work but I think AS is the most likely due to their focus city operation at SDIA. If B6 won't consider them, it's a shame and they are truly missing some good opportunities.

bb

In fairness, I did not think that TPA-SAN had PDEW that high. Without competition, RDU/TPA would be good P2P routes for B6 to try in that case. That said, I can see AS jumping on TPA-SAN, given how they added LAX-TPA/RSW and SAN-FLL. I was mostly laying out what B6 could offer if they were investing resources into SAN the same way they were focusing at LAX in my original post, so that was by no means a "realistic" target of what B6 will offer at SAN in the next few years, so I'm mostly laying out a "what could've been" scenario. I think we're in agreement about B6 being too LAX/SFO-centric on the west coast. Obviously PDX/SEA aren't really prime targets with AS being so dominant and DL also having a large SEA hub. But SAN is a pretty fragmented market and I think AS is doing the right thing in adding to its network there. LA and Bay Area markets are giant, but do not have the growth prospects that San Diego has had for decades now.

To your earlier point on DC - it'd be great to see AS launch new IAD or BWI service from SAN. There's really not many options to SAN besides UA to IAD or WN to BWI (are WN even flying SAN-BWI right now?)

I feel for SAN since AA moved the SAN-DCA flight to LAX. Do you think the SAN crowd would go for a tag flight to DCA, like SAN-LAX-DCA on the AS5/AS6 combo. Not even sure if AS would do it but wondering if San Diego would find something like that worthwhile?

gmcc wrote:

I feel for SAN since AA moved the SAN-DCA flight to LAX. Do you think the SAN crowd would go for a tag flight to DCA, like SAN-LAX-DCA on the AS5/AS6 combo. Not even sure if AS would do it but wondering if San Diego would find something like that worthwhile?

Unfortunately, no. Tag-ons are as ancient history MD-80 "Whisperliners". If it's not a non-stop, then the airline won't be offering a product to tempt the premium flyer away from his/her usual routing. Why would a SkyTeam flyer in San Diego fly AA SAN-LAX-DCA - even on the same plane - instead of SAN-SLC/ATL/MSP/DTW-DCA, on which they would keep earning their status?

Second of all, as much as this pains me to admit, but if the military presence in San Diego truly desired the non-stop, then it would not have been switched to LAX. It killed me that it was allowed to happen, but given the speed at which US/AA dropped SAN-DCA, the premium yields from LAX were simply too tempting, and the expected premium traffic didn't materialize at SAN. And as long as that airport remains "restricted", it isn't going to return.

Ironically enough, this has proven to be SAN's one nut that it can't crack. True, LGA is also restricted, but in my mind, who cares? The other two NYC airports have multiple non-stops on multiple airlines, so the metro area is well covered. And the convenience of DCA can't be argued with. But as long as DCA is a restricted airport so residents don't have to listen to "big jets all the time disturbing our peaceful village!!", SAN simply doesn't have the gravity or the clout for a non-stop.

On the other hand, the San Diego area has proven to have a significant amount of "World City" growth, so to speak, in attracting foreign carriers to the airport. In a world where LAX has the gravity of Jupiter, we had (and will have again, soon enough!) Toronto and Vancouver (along with other Canadian cities at different times), Tokyo, London, Frankfurt, Zurich (yeah, seasonally, I know), and considerations of Panama City (PTY)! I have always admired BA for being brave enough to get rid of the "short-hop" to a secondary airport for refueling enroute from SAN to London. The route authority (remember Bermuda II?) made this awkward, but it was profitable enough to do it, and more advanced planes made non-stops possible to Heathrow. Upgauging then occurred, as premium demand brought 777-300's and 747-400's. Then came JL and 787, which they continued with a weight-restricted 777-300 during the 787's grounding, as yields and customer loyalty deemed it necessary. Then came Lufthansa and Edelweiss Air, along with rumors for a while that LH would upgauge some of its daily flights from an A340-300 to an A340-600! And all this without pilfering from LAX's premium traffic.

You bring up an interesting question: in flights from a "restricted" airport, like DCA and LGA and their perimeter rules, can an airline run a through number on the flight, such as DCA-DEN-SAN? Or would that be against the rules?

PSA’ & gmcc, the SAN-DCA market is still a very heavy topic for me. I had written a response to your post yesterday, gm’ but decided not to post it. After seeing PSA’‘s post today, I will throw out some of my thoughts.

I've actually called for an AS tag-on for a few years now. Hell, AA could have at least done the tag-on for their many SAN-DCA customers as they already flew SAN-LAX, but they didn’t even do that for us. Now of course AA no longer flies SAN-LAX.

However, might AS step in and carry OW pax between SAN & LA? If so then there would be even more reason for them to offer a r/t SAN-LAX as tag-ons to the DCA flights! Of course I don't know if AS would want to dilute their LA traffic flying to/from DCA with SAN pax -- I expect there would be a lot of SAN-DCA pax if such flights were offered.

But here’s something to think about. As I've discussed before, I feel that if Congress/The DOT hold another hearing to add more Beyond-Perimeter service out of Reagan Airport, I think they will look at what applicants for DCA-SAN authority have offered in the past (read: now) to try to provide alternate service to the WAS-area.

Here's what they will see: 1) WN offers daily, direct, no-change, thru-plane service between SAN and DCA (via AUS) and has done so ever since the last Beyond-Perimeter hearing in about 2012. 2) WN flies between 1 & 3 daily nonstops between SAN and BWI. 3) In 2015/6, WN even tried flying SAN-IAD nonstop; the service lasted a bit over a year before WN pulled the flight. (Note: during COVID, there have been some breaks in these offerings by WN.)

Here's what the DOT will see from AAG: 1) a rather quick-lived attempt at SAN-BWI service that stretched between Spring 2017 and fall of 2019 at which time it was supposed to become a "seasonal" offering; it has not flown since. Oh yeah, the flight offered was a red-eye eastbound for the entire run of the route. 2) nothing else. (Note again: COVID may have very well caused changes to any AS SAN-WAS plans.)

In that last hearing for new Beyond-Perimeter authorizations, AS and US were the only cx that applied for nonstop service SAN-DCA and US got the award. I assume AS would be interested in another try at getting permission to fly the route. But if WN and AS both apply, I believe WN would have a much better case to present as to why they should be selected. (Of course both cx might well be approved for the route.)

Mostly, AS has offered SAN-WAS via SFO or SEA (or LA with a change of airline)... That’s a reason I think the idea of direct SAN-LAX-DCA on AS is a good one as a way of getting the carrier easily into the SAN-WAS market, one that I think AS definitely needs to be in and has shown some interest in. If AS were to begin a tag-on (SAN-LA-DCA r/t), start up BWI again and/or start flying SAN-IAD, they might look a lot better in the eyes of the DOT.

A couple of comments to you PSA’. Your second paragraph brings up US/AA's moving our flights to LA. I think long before the actual move, given the rules that were announced for the Beyond-Perimeter hearing, and while the hearing was still underway, it was planned that the SAN-flight would be quickly moved to LA, no matter what level of support it saw here. AA wanted a 2nd LAX-DCA and didn’t give a damn about SAN-DCA.

One issue was that US was never a particularly well-liked carrier in SAN so a lot of travelers continued flying on better-timed flights on other cx even though they generally required a stop or change of plane. (And don’t forget, US was timed for the eastern time zone traveler, with a morning departure from DCA and an afternoon departure from SAN; the plane RONd at Reagan.)

Instead of moving the flight up the 5 to LAX on 5/22/2014, AA could have taken over the SAN-flight and re-timed it. An AA morning departure to DCA with an evening return would have been an unquestioned winner in SAN, including in First Class. They chose not to do that. (Important note: I believe SAN-DCA remains the largest unserved domestic nonstop market in the US!)

The only two ways SAN can get a nonstop to DCA are 1) just wait until such time as Congress makes a move, or 2) by getting AA, DL or UA to move their existing Beyond-Perimeter DCA-flight from the city where it currently resides (respectively LA, LA, SFO) currently.

PSA’, your final sentences ask about direct flights SAN-DCA. I already mentioned the WN flight, via AUS, which has operated since 2012. There are periodic thru-flights offered by cx but to my knowledge, they are very rare and not on-going. But they certainly could be; nothing prevents cx from doing so.

bb

AS upgraded their SAN-GEG flight from an E175 to a 737-900ER yesterday: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASA ... /KSAN/KGEG

Currently scheduled until February 10th; but AS should be updating their interim February schedule any day now, so hopefully this upgrade will stick around.

DCA-SAN is an interesting topic. I grew up in SAN but have lived here in the DC area for 25 years. Still have most of my family in SAN so I typically fly out 3x a year.

SAN-DCA was from what I was told a very profitable route for US. The flights were extremely full and the non-stop routing was sold at a good premium over comparable connecting services (typically DCA-CLT-SAN or DCA-PHX-SAN). It was a standalone route for US as US had no connectivity for anybody on the SAN end. By contrast, AA had a good-sized hub at LAX and it was seen as more advantageous to move that flight from SAN to LAX where they could feed passengers to other connections at LAX (plus the DCA-LAX market is not a cheap market).

if you look at AA's schedule prior to COVID for DCA, the schedules were often done to allow people coming to DC to fly into DC in the morning for meetings or work and then to return home that evening or the next evening. Places like MCI and OKC did this to allow for a evening departure from DCA, have the plane RON at the outstation, and then return to DCA first thing in the morning.

AC4500 wrote:

AS upgraded their SAN-GEG flight from an E175 to a 737-900ER yesterday: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASA ... /KSAN/KGEG
Currently scheduled until February 10th; but AS should be updating their interim February schedule any day now, so hopefully this upgrade will stick around.

Just an FYI AC', I discovered and reported this upgrade a few weeks ago on the 2020 SAN-thread (Reply #729.) What happens to it on Feb 11 is STILL unkn; as of 2/11, the "place holder" skeds are still showing dbl-daily service on EMJs.

I expect the AS Feb skeds will be "adjusted" this weekend (with their OAG load.) Why they're waiting so long to do so is a question being discussed elsewhere. And who knows, maybe there'll be other surprises when the new Feb skeds are unveiled...

bb

I was glad to see yesterday that the SAN-JFK flights were formally announced! (Of course the route first appeared in the AS flight skeds on 12/18, over 3 weeks ago but at least we finally got an announcement.)

As I posted on the 2020 SAN-thread, the times are great, while very reminiscent of another cx service in the market -- one that has dropped the route after flying it for 60 years:

SAN - 7:25am #392 Dly 739 Eff 4/4/21
JFK - 3:55pm

JFK - 4:55pm #393 Dly 739 Eff 4/4/21
SAN - 8:05pm

Newark service will continue, currently showing as re-starting in March! (Take THAT B6 - LOL!)

The next major thing I hope to see from AS is some sort of service to WAS -- where, when or what are unknown...

bb

SANFan wrote:

Newark service will continue, currently showing as re-starting in March! (Take THAT B6 - LOL!)

You think AS can compete against B6 on NYC-SAN market long term? The yield differences were pretty large pre-COVID.

tphuang wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Newark service will continue, currently showing as re-starting in March!

You think AS can compete against B6 on NYC-SAN market long term? The yield differences were pretty large pre-COVID.

Yes I do, I think the joining of OW by AS will certainly help as there are a lot of OW members in SAN (thanks to AA.) And coincidentally, AS will be THE OW carrier in both nonstop markets.

And until Blue seriously starts thinking -- at least sometimes -- in west coast terms regarding their skeds, I see AS doing fine. As long as Blue continues with their east coast bias when timing their transcon service to the left coast, -- including few if any departures to anywhere from SAN prior to noon -- AS (and DL) will continue to attract a large percentage of the SAN-based travelers. I can count on one hand the number of times Blue has run an early morning departure from SAN in their 18 years serving SAN!) OTOH by 8:30 in the morning, AS's JFK, EWR and BOS flights are (will be) well on their way across the country.

But honestly, I think there's room for both Blue and AS in the markets they serve, plus of course UA & DL. JFK+EWR O&D PDEW averaged 1,243 for Q1, 2 & 3 2019!

bb

SANFan wrote:

tphuang wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Newark service will continue, currently showing as re-starting in March!

You think AS can compete against B6 on NYC-SAN market long term? The yield differences were pretty large pre-COVID.

Yes I do, I think the joining of OW by AS will certainly help as there are a lot of OW members in SAN (thanks to AA.) And coincidentally, AS will be THE OW carrier in both nonstop markets.

And until Blue seriously starts thinking -- at least sometimes -- in west coast terms regarding their skeds, I see AS doing fine. As long as Blue continues with their east coast bias when timing their transcon service to the left coast, -- including few if any departures to anywhere from SAN prior to noon -- AS (and DL) will continue to attract a large percentage of the SAN-based travelers. I can count on one hand the number of times Blue has run an early morning departure from SAN in their 18 years serving SAN!) OTOH by 8:30 in the morning, AS's JFK, EWR and BOS flights are (will be) well on their way across the country.

But honestly, I think there's room for both Blue and AS in the markets they serve, plus of course UA & DL. JFK+EWR O&D PDEW averaged 1,243 for Q1, 2 & 3 2019!

bb

The problem with that is AA ff can also earn miles on B6 flights now. There is a reason AS struggled so much on EWR-SAN pre-COVID. Mint killed them and that isn't going to change. Having the best product in the market does help.

tphuang wrote:

SANFan wrote:

tphuang wrote:

You think AS can compete against B6 on NYC-SAN market long term? The yield differences were pretty large pre-COVID.

Yes I do, I think the joining of OW by AS will certainly help as there are a lot of OW members in SAN (thanks to AA.) And coincidentally, AS will be THE OW carrier in both nonstop markets.

And until Blue seriously starts thinking -- at least sometimes -- in west coast terms regarding their skeds, I see AS doing fine. As long as Blue continues with their east coast bias when timing their transcon service to the left coast, -- including few if any departures to anywhere from SAN prior to noon -- AS (and DL) will continue to attract a large percentage of the SAN-based travelers. I can count on one hand the number of times Blue has run an early morning departure from SAN in their 18 years serving SAN!) OTOH by 8:30 in the morning, AS's JFK, EWR and BOS flights are (will be) well on their way across the country.

But honestly, I think there's room for both Blue and AS in the markets they serve, plus of course UA & DL. JFK+EWR O&D PDEW averaged 1,243 for Q1, 2 & 3 2019!

bb

The problem with that is AA ff can also earn miles on B6 flights now. There is a reason AS struggled so much on EWR-SAN pre-COVID. Mint killed them and that isn't going to change. Having the best product in the market does help.

AS struggled at EWR? I don’t know much about them but I know VX did pretty well on their EWR Transcons.

I watched last night as AS (finally) updated their Feb 11 schedules which were, for SAN, mostly frequency reductions. This sked will run thru Mar 17. Of course this sked is still a month out so there could very well be additional changes before the Feb 11 schedule is effective.

I'd like to report 2 of the changes I've found: BOI will be upgraded -- as was GEG this month -- to a single mainline r/t (a 739!) Also, PAE service is dropped from SAN in February, along with several other cities that were scheduled for flights to/from Everett. Kauai service is mostly missing from our route map until at least March 18 and possibly beyond...

I can report that AS is gradually growing the number of daily flights from SAN as well as the number of nonstop destinations. I commend AS for really working hard at heading in the right direction back toward "normal"!

bb

If you follow the schedule changes articles Cranky Flyer posts every Monday on his blog, you'll see that airlines aren't really doing much that far out. So about now is the right time we're starting to see realistic changes for February, further out than that is mostly last year's schedules as a placeholder.

As far as Kauai goes, the island has opted out of the state's option to use a negative COVID-19 test in lieu of 14 day quarantine. So services to LIH have been drastically cut relative to the other islands, with almost no mainland flights and even HA inter island flights from HNL have been reduced.

Good news! I just found this announcement on SAN.org's Newsroom:

Japan Airlines Announces Resumption of Nonstop Flights to Tokyo from San Diego International Airport
Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Japan Airlines has announced they will resume nonstop flights between Tokyo, Japan via Narita International Airport (NRT) and San Diego International Airport (SAN). The service will operate three times a week with the first arrival into San Diego on March 2 and the first departure from San Diego on March 3. The resumption comes after Japan Airlines suspended service in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Japan Airlines became the first airline to launch nonstop flights between Asia and San Diego when they inaugurated service to Tokyo in December 2012. Pre-COVID-19, the airline offered daily nonstop flights which were immensely popular.

Here's the link:
https://www.san.org/news/news-detail/ja ... al-airport

Considering the source, I take this info seriously and do believe JL will return to SAN on March 2! And it seems this might very well be the first intercontinental route to return to SDIA which is a bit of a surprise but very pleasing!

Note: I'm not quite sure i understand the delay of the return flight to NRT by 1 day following the first arrival but... whatever it takes!

bb

SANFan wrote:

Note: I'm not quite sure i understand the delay of the return flight to NRT by 1 day following the first arrival but... whatever it takes!

bb

So the passenger NRT-SAN flight arrives at 9:55 AM and departs around 26 hours later? Has SAN been receiving any notable cargo flights since COVID began? It's possible JAL could run daily NRT-SAN flights but only have three of the weekly flights open to passengers while the other four operate as cargo-only. They did a similar strategy with their LAX/DFW flights a few months ago.

I'd be surprised if it the 787 sits in SAN for 26 hours, but then again, aircraft utilization is down overall.

Ishrion wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Note: I'm not quite sure i understand the delay of the return flight to NRT by 1 day following the first arrival but... whatever it takes!

So the passenger NRT-SAN flight arrives at 9:55 AM and departs around 26 hours later? Has SAN been receiving any notable cargo flights since COVID began? It's possible JAL could run daily NRT-SAN flights but only have three of the weekly flights open to passengers while the other four operate as cargo-only. They did a similar strategy with their LAX/DFW flights a few months ago.

I'd be surprised if it the 787 sits in SAN for 26 hours, but then again, aircraft utilization is down overall.

I just spent some time on the JL website and learned the following:

It appears flight 66 will depart NRT on Tu/Th/Sa and arrive in SAN at 9:55am on TuTh/Sa;
Flight 65 shows as departing SAN on We/Fr/Su at 11:55am and arriving in TYO on Mo/Th/Sa.

So it appears that the 788 will in fact overnight here; I assume that when additional frequencies are added, the RON will be eliminated (and the SAN times will remain the same.) The a/c is a Sky Suite 788. And yes, it appears many of the US gateways are receiving less-than-normal levels of service; SEA for example seems to have the same frequency level as we will with a similar schedule.

I don't know about cargo flights but you could be right...

bb

The long sit in SAN means the crew can have their overnight rest and fly the aircraft back to Japan the next day. Having the aircraft return the same day means another crew would have to take the plane back. For a daily schedule that's fine, but for a sub-daily schedule that means the same crew with multiple night stays per trip. More crews in SAN for multiple days also likely increases their risk of COVID exposure unless they just sit in their hotel room the whole time.

Hawaiian is doing the same thing with their HNL-MCO flight.

SANFan wrote:

Good news! I just found this announcement on SAN.org's Newsroom:

Japan Airlines Announces Resumption of Nonstop Flights to Tokyo from San Diego International Airport
Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Japan Airlines has announced they will resume nonstop flights between Tokyo, Japan via Narita International Airport (NRT) and San Diego International Airport (SAN). The service will operate three times a week with the first arrival into San Diego on March 2 and the first departure from San Diego on March 3. The resumption comes after Japan Airlines suspended service in April 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Japan Airlines became the first airline to launch nonstop flights between Asia and San Diego when they inaugurated service to Tokyo in December 2012. Pre-COVID-19, the airline offered daily nonstop flights which were immensely popular.

Here's the link:
https://www.san.org/news/news-detail/ja ... al-airport

Considering the source, I take this info seriously and do believe JL will return to SAN on March 2!
bb

That is indeed good news! Hopefully BA and LH is not far behind JL in announcing resumption of service!

Ishrion wrote:

So the passenger NRT-SAN flight arrives at 9:55 AM and departs around 26 hours later? Has SAN been receiving any notable cargo flights since COVID began?

I know JL had been taking care of the MNL bound pax by connecting them through NRT, it could be that the demand for SAN-MNL is still there and JL is getting a jump on those MNL bound pax. JL most likely want to start again with three times a week, and gradually upgrade to daily.

ytib wrote:

It has been about five years since the consolidated rental car facility opened at SAN. Are there any updates on what will happen with the former East Harbor Island land where the majority of rental companies were located?

They are building a TopGolf there

hawaiian717 wrote:

The long sit in SAN means the crew can have their overnight rest and fly the aircraft back to Japan the next day. Having the aircraft return the same day means another crew would have to take the plane back. For a daily schedule that's fine, but for a sub-daily schedule that means the same crew with multiple night stays per trip. More crews in SAN for multiple days also likely increases their risk of COVID exposure unless they just sit in their hotel room the whole time.

Hawaiian is doing the same thing with their HNL-MCO flight.

Thanks for that hawaiian'. Never thought of crews. And as I said, I think the same thing is happening in SEA (service on the same days of the week) and maybe other US gateways as well. (I think BOS is due to op 4x weekly so maybe the same there too.)

BTW, BA is still showing their first flight to SAN on Mar 2 (Tue) also; their service is sked for Tu/Th/Sa for starters.

bb

SANFan wrote:

BTW, BA is still showing their first flight to SAN on Mar 2 (Tue) also; their service is sked for Tu/Th/Sa for starters.

bb

That would be awesome if Speedbird shows up the same days JL shows up! Hopefully an official announcement is soon from BA, I'm also wondering about LH?

what is the reason all the hawaii flights take a northly route out of SAN prior to turning west? I was on the SAN-HNL flight a couple months ago and we did not turn west till San Luis Obispo. Looks like the common routing is to head North to Catalina prior to turning west. is this because restricted air space over San Clemente Island? Any other reason?

Exciting news! We gained back our MCO service on F9 from 3/7/21 at daily service. I wonder if B6 will add MCO as there seems to be a market there for them. Maybe we’ll even see TPA too but WN seems to go off and on with that route, however interestingly enough they haven’t resumed their MCO route (which may never happen).

https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-a ... d-phoenix/


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SanBdlFly wrote:

Exciting news! We gained back our MCO service on F9 from 3/7/21 at daily service. I wonder if B6 will add MCO as there seems to be a market there for them. Maybe we’ll even see TPA too but WN seems to go off and on with that route, however interestingly enough they haven’t resumed their MCO route (which may never happen).

Good catch and thanks for the update 'Fly. The only unfortunate part of the news is that the SAN-MCO flight remains a red-eye; the return flight is early in the morning. Not ideal times in either direction for business (or leisure) travel IMO. I sure wish F9 would re-time the flights.

And remember, AS has been heading for daily-double service on SAN-MCO since last summer and will get there hopefully this summer at the latest! and not a single red-eye! (The schedules can be seen on AS's advance schedules beginning March 18.) As of now, it's just a matter of when the full traffic levels return that we will see the 2 daily flights!

It's impossible to know what WN is now planning for the near-term and mid-term future for SAN; it seems to me that their drastic cuts of last November
(when they suddenly dropped ~10 destinations and ~35 daily departures!) seem to be generally holding. The discontinuation of MCO is still surprising but the market does seem to be on the verge of getting a good amount of service in lieu of WN's move -- especially if B6 jumps in as many expect.

ajlombardi2 wrote:

what is the reason all the hawaii flights take a northly route out of SAN prior to turning west? I was on the SAN-HNL flight a couple months ago and we did not turn west till San Luis Obispo. Looks like the common routing is to head North to Catalina prior to turning west. is this because restricted air space over San Clemente Island? Any other reason?

I see nobody has addressed your question, aj'. Sorry. From what I remember there is a block of restricted airspace due west of SAN and another block NW of LAX; there is a corridor between the 2 blocks which is used by SAN and LAX air traffic heading west. If you look at the FlightAware projection of air traffic between SoCal and Hawaii, the safety corridor becomes pretty obvious.

bb

SAN-MCO/TPA seem like good routes for B6 to jump in on, because they seem like natural markets for B6. But I think the highest probability adds for B6 from SAN are AUS/RDU since it looks those two are the places outside of NYC/Boston/South Florida/Los Angeles where B6 seem interested in expanding. It'd be interesting to see what else F9 is up to; I wonder if they'd be willing to add back SAN-RDU before B6 ever decides to try it.

A couple of things appeared in the OAG thread yesterday worth mentioning.

For AS, there were some March changes but probably not the final adjustments to those schedules -- I expect we'll see more cuts... But we have learned with this week's OAG thread that unfortunately CUN is being dropped at the beginning of March; it was originally scheduled to continue into April. An early discontinuance of a totally leisure route by AS is a bit concerning; it should be noted that CUN-PDX seems to have suffered a similar fate.

In a similar situation, it appears that AS's service to Cabo is being trimmed in March -- just in time for Spring Break! Gulp... also concerning to me.

Additional changes now revealed about March are that both SBA and SBP have again been delayed, as of now, until June. We all know what kind of issues CA is suffering through centering around COVID so delays of new intra-CA routes -- even mostly leisure ones -- are not really surprising. I just hope we will see the brand new SBA-route and the return of SBP this summer...

These drops ('delays') make me wonder if we will still see the return of SAN-SMF in April. (And, I suppose, the inaugural of JFK in early April as well...) The tough times continue.

As of now, MSO service is still showing as starting on March 18!

In other airline news, according to the OAG thread, BA is showing very limited SAN service beginning in March. I hope we will see an announcement from SAN soon confirming the return of Speedbird to SDIA, just as they recently announced JL's return of service. AC is also shown as returning to SAN in April with service to both YVR and YYZ! And even WS will possibly return in April with some limited level of service. Unfortunately, nothing positive is showing yet from LH or WK...

hbernal1 wrote:

SAN-MCO/TPA seem like good routes for B6 to jump in on, because they seem like natural markets for B6. But I think the highest probability adds for B6 from SAN are AUS/RDU since it looks those two are the places outside of NYC/Boston/South Florida/Los Angeles where B6 seem interested in expanding. It'd be interesting to see what else F9 is up to; I wonder if they'd be willing to add back SAN-RDU before B6 ever decides to try it.

Good and interesting points. At this point, I just hope we'll see some sort of service to TPA and RDU - both unserved at this time. I don't know what the breakdown of leisure vs. corporate travel is for both of those markets and that might be the difference between seeing new nonstops and not.

bb

Considering the messy rollout of vaccines, I suspect airlines are reluctant to continually bleed red ink starting new or resuming existing flights. I just flew essential work travel 3 times in the last 2 months on UA out of SAN. UA does not block middle seats and I saw 50-60% capacity on all legs, not a way to make a profit.

Frankly, I'm surprised JAL is returning to SAN considering the upswing of the virus in Tokyo. And if I were Japan, considering how it's still a fast spreading pandemic here in SAN, I wouldn't want flights coming to Japan. Unless there is total control on testing of passengers and crew, there is risk, COVID was spread by travel. Spring break was mentioned, look what happened last year at the same time, it was a wildfire.

I want to travel to Europe in June on vacation, but until there is at least 70% vaccinated worldwide, there will be risk. That's a risk I'm not willing to take nor should airlines resuming a more robust schedule until we get this pandemic under control. Is it worth your life?

The Mexico services are being scaled back likely as a result of the Covid testing requirement for anyone coming into the USA by air from points outside the USA