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What do we have to look forward to so far in 2021?

* B6 is adding a second FLL in February.
* Delta is adding back a couple of extra frequencies to JFK and LAX in February
* WN is adding 4X IAH and adding other cities back to the nonstop schedule in April, including CUN, OAK, SAT, MCI, STL, and RDU.
* Vacation Express scheduled charters to CUN and MBJ return in May and run through August. Viva Aerobus will be doing the honors on CUN, and iAero will operate the MBJ flights.

That’s all I’ve really noticed but I might have missed some.

NK flights to SAP and CUN commence service in February.

SunsetLimited wrote:

What do we have to look forward to so far in 2021?

* B6 is adding a second FLL in February.
* Delta is adding back a couple of extra frequencies to JFK and LAX in February
* WN is adding 4X IAH and adding other cities back to the nonstop schedule in April, including CUN, OAK, SAT, MCI, STL, and RDU.
* Vacation Express scheduled charters to CUN and MBJ return in May and run through August. Viva Aerobus will be doing the honors on CUN, and iAero will operate the MBJ flights.

That’s all I’ve really noticed but I might have missed some.

Any indication on Copa?

SunsetLimited wrote:

and iAero will operate the MBJ flights.

Weird that it remains Swift for all corporate purposes, but they're going to spend the money to completely rebrand as iAero... still wondering what the reasoning behind that is.

SunsetLimited wrote:

That’s all I’ve really noticed but I might have missed some.

G4 resumes scheduled svc with CVG as well.

jbs2886 wrote:

Any indication on Copa?

They haven't added back their three primary-leisure routes: TPA, MSY, LAS.

Be a particularly shame if MSY were to lose that route, as it was the only FAA medium-Hub in the country with scheduled yearround nonstops to CenAm. Granted, that distinction still would remain should NK bring back SAP as scheduled for the spring, but a shame to lose CM.

jbs2886 wrote:

SunsetLimited wrote:

Any indication on Copa?

According to https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/01/co ... s-de-2021/, maybe by July 2nd with 3 fx per week.

Kilgen wrote:

jbs2886 wrote:

SunsetLimited wrote:

Any indication on Copa?

According to https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/01/co ... s-de-2021/, maybe by July 2nd with 3 fx per week.

Interesting. Going to be a jump in capacity per flight with no E190s or 737-700s anymore.

Kilgen wrote:

According to https://www.aviacionline.com/2021/01/co ... s-de-2021/, maybe by July 2nd with 3 fx per week.

Awesome!

Thanks to NK, MSY is already about to resume its status as the only FAA medium-hub with scheduled yearround service to Central America.
Will be great to have two destinations (SAP and PTY) now!

jbs2886 wrote:

Interesting. Going to be a jump in capacity per flight with no E190s or 737-700s anymore.

True, though they were already flying the 73G 4xW prior to COVID; so assuming traffic starts bouncing back in the post-vaccine summer, it won't be that much of an adjustment, seeing as it would be less total weekly seats.

Then again, MSY now has nonstops to Honduras returned, so it'll be interesting to see how CM does in the face of NK, who may continue to expand into LatAm from there, due to ability to offer stateside cnnx.

Glad to see CM will be returning to the market. That will leave only YUL and FRA as the international markets dropped since the pandemic began. YUL started out strong, so hopefully they will be back next winter. FRA is likely gone for a while.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

Glad to see CM will be returning to the market. That will leave only YUL and FRA as the international markets dropped since the pandemic began. YUL started out strong, so hopefully they will be back next winter. FRA is likely gone for a while.

When is LHR proposed to return?

NolaMD88fan wrote:

YUL started out strong

That's what's so frustrating: MSY (alongside SAN) was TS' first foray outside of Florida for stateside routes, in quite some time. It really seemed like it was doing well.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

so hopefully they will be back next winter.

Canada's entry requirements have increased in their strictness over the last few weeks, not decreased... so that can't be helping.

I do also wonder how the uncertainty (to the extent that there is any) surrounding the integration of AC/TS in terms of network, may be affecting this flight as well.

bretonrlong wrote:

NolaMD88fan wrote:

Glad to see CM will be returning to the market. That will leave only YUL and FRA as the international markets dropped since the pandemic began. YUL started out strong, so hopefully they will be back next winter. FRA is likely gone for a while.

When is LHR proposed to return?

It's been pushed back twice in just the last few months, and likely won't be any time soon due to increased scrutiny surrounding UK travel.... but at least BA seems determined to bring it back, as they never drop it from the rolls whenever they make an adjustment.

PIT, CHS, PDX, YYC, and SJO weren't so lucky, in terms of BA's North American ops.

Interesting note, I flew out of A for the first time last week. UA flight to ORD departed from A5 instead of Concourse C.

QB504 wrote:

Interesting note, I flew out of A for the first time last week. UA flight to ORD departed from A5 instead of Concourse C.

Guessing it was an early morning flight, seeing as A is commonly used for RON.

LAX772LR wrote:

bretonrlong wrote:

NolaMD88fan wrote:

Glad to see CM will be returning to the market. That will leave only YUL and FRA as the international markets dropped since the pandemic began. YUL started out strong, so hopefully they will be back next winter. FRA is likely gone for a while.

When is LHR proposed to return?

It's been pushed back twice in just the last few months, and likely won't be any time soon due to increased scrutiny surrounding UK travel.... but at least BA seems determined to bring it back, as they never drop it from the rolls whenever they make an adjustment.

PIT, CHS, PDX, YYC, and SJO weren't so lucky, in terms of BA's North American ops.

SJO switched to seasonal. It’s still part of the BA network.

LAX772LR wrote:

QB504 wrote:

Interesting note, I flew out of A for the first time last week. UA flight to ORD departed from A5 instead of Concourse C.

Guessing it was an early morning flight, seeing as A is commonly used for RON.

My flight this morning to EWR is also out of A.

BA updated its NOLA page again, looks like they're shooting for March to resume.
Tues, March 2 is the first day I see the nonstop LHR-MSY back in the schedules.

https://www.britishairways.com/en-gb/de ... ew-orleans

Special sales of £260 and £1871 e/w for Y and J, respectively.

DE won't be back this Summer (not a shocker). They also dropped PIT. The flight had a load factor of 86.5% in 2019, and it was going to be the high J configuration in 2020 (alas that did not happen). It was nice having them around, and I am glad I took the opportunity to fly them in 2017. If traffic levels recover enough, maybe we'll see them back on the route for 2022.

https://www.condor.com/us/generated/timetable_S2021.pdf

For an avgeek perspective, it is sad that we won't get to have an awesome shot of a BA 789 and DE 763 both parked at the A concourse. I was really looking forward to that at this time last year.

Two articles in the paper this morning concerning the airport.

The first article discusses the prospect of international flights and which carriers we are expecting to see back. The airport director was quoted as saying that all of the current international carriers in the market have indicated they plan to return at some point. Thus, it is safe to say there is cautious optimism on that part. Of course, so much is dependent on how quickly both the leisure and trade show/convention market bounces back. That's the bread and butter market demographic for MSY.

https://www.nola.com/news/business/article_184ca04e-55d8-11eb-81a8-e32b4ad8ef4d.html

Before the coronavirus struck, New Orleans had steadily increased its number of international flights. Spirit Airlines, in fact, added two new international destinations March, just before the pandemic spread brought international travel to a virtual halt. With Spirit's flights to Cancun, Mexico, and San Pedro Sula, Honduras, it brought the total regular and seasonal direct flights in and out of Armstrong to nine.

Dolliole said all airlines operating international routes from Armstrong have said they fully expect to continue operations once restrictions are lifted.

Airport officials also noted a steady increase in commercial operations at the $1 billion passenger terminal, which was opened in November 2019 to good reviews for the New Orleans-focused food and retail operations. Having worked out lease deals with the companies operating them, about half the nearly 60 concessions have now reopened.

The second article indicates that the interchange project at I-10 and Loyola is ahead of schedule and is projected to be finished by the Summer of 2022.

https://www.nola.com/news/article_bc77b9fa-5520-11eb-b6dd-c73066dac79d.html

October and November passenger stats are out for MSY. These were the two best months the airport has reported since the pandemic began with nearly 400k passengers reported both months.

October:
https://flymsy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Airline-Statistics-October-2020.pdf

November:
https://flymsy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Airline-Statistics-November-2020.pdf

394,797 pax were reported in October. This was a 68% drop in activity from 2019.

397,945 pax were reported in November. This was a 65.3% drop in activity from 2019.

Year to date, there were 4,896,178 pax reported. This was a 60.8% decline from 2019. The airport was positioned between SMF and RDU as the 38th busiest in the nation through November.

October 2020 domestic load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated. There is no international update given the service suspensions associated with COVID-19 travel restrictions.

As compared to 2019, airport-wide seat count dropped by 59.8%, and pax traffic fell by 69.4% resulting in a 23.8% decrease in load factors to 62.0%. NK's MSY-LAX route had the best loads of the month at 87.1%. B6's MSY-BOS route had the worst loads of the month at 37.6%.

SY restarted flights to MSP in October, and did decently in this pandemic environment with flights going out a little over half full.

October Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline.................Seats..............................Pax............................LF
AS................10,556(-65.8%)..............5,177(-79.4%).........49.0%(-32.4%)
AA..............103,177(-54.3%)............84,018(-54.8%).........81.4%(-1.2%)
B6................11,236(-79.7%)..............4,951(-88.6%).........44.1%(-43.7%)
DL................94,095(-60.6%)............45,800(-76.9%).........48.7%(-41.3%)
F9.................19,836(-43.5%)............11,060(-61.9%).........55.8%(-32.6%)
G4..................6,456(-54.7%).............2,925(-70.4%)..........44.7%(-34.5%)
NK................63,980(-64.8%)...........46,876(-68.6%)..........73.3%(-10.7%)
SY..................4,092(-48.4%).............2,137(-60.7%)..........52.2%(-23.9%)
UA................70,357(-64.5%)...........50,698(-68.6%)..........72.1%(-11.5%)
WN.............227,427(-57.3%).........125,221(-70.9%)..........55.1%(-31.8%)

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e36A_kk0WshqQL2vurxQXa5pE9oJ2UV7zPuA1B2s7gQ/edit?usp=sharing

NolaMD88fan wrote:

There is no international update given the service suspensions associated with COVID-19 travel restrictions.

*sigh*

Gonna be interesting to see who's actually going to be first back, regardless as to what's scheduled currently.

Encouraging sign today! The DL SkyClub has reopened. That just leaves the UA club to reopen. Poor thing was only open a couple of weeks before the pandemic shutdowns began.

Unfortunately, the BA flight cancellation was extended further for all BA secondary TATL markets. Looks like the start date has been pushed back to May.

Is there any particular reason that despite being a heavy leisure destination Allegiant show so little interest in MSY? Is the market as such that they prefer Destin for the majority of their gulf coast ops?

gravytrain wrote:

Is there any particular reason that despite being a heavy leisure destination Allegiant show so little interest in MSY?

They aren't the ones with lack of interest....

The general word is that the hotels in NOLA, especially the non-chains, have little interest in selling their excess inventory at rates Allegiant wants; and its business model is centered around packages-- doesn't work so well for airfare-only sales.

Part of that is because, despite being a major vacation city, MSY's hotel capacity matches fairly closely to demand (just ask anyone who tries to book one for Mardi Gras, JazzFest, or Southern Decadence, less than months in advance.) There's not a lot of excess inventory to begin with, compared to the likes of LAS, MCO, etc. And the only real drawdown period is late August and early September: where it's both hotter than Hades, and also the peak of hurricane season.

LAX772LR wrote:

gravytrain wrote:

Is there any particular reason that despite being a heavy leisure destination Allegiant show so little interest in MSY?

They aren't the ones with lack of interest....

The general word is that the hotels in NOLA, especially the non-chains, have little interest in selling their excess inventory at rates Allegiant wants; and its business model is centered around packages-- doesn't work so well for airfare-only sales.

Part of that is because, despite being a major vacation city, MSY's hotel capacity matches fairly closely to demand (just ask anyone who tries to book one for Mardi Gras, JazzFest, or Southern Decadence, less than months in advance.) There's not a lot of excess inventory to begin with, compared to the likes of LAS, MCO, etc. And the only real drawdown period is late August and early September: where it's both hotter than Hades, and also the peak of hurricane season.

That's really interesting. I guess the hotels are hedging on conferences coming back somewhat and just general travel? One would think they'd be trying to fill up whatever they can right now.

Edit also to add that Spirit is going pretty strong in MSY and Allegiant may just be staying away from that (except in LAS and beach markets).

NK has definitely been the ULCC winner at MSY, and I see further growth ahead for them. G4 was actually starting to perform decently from MSY in the year or so before the pandemic began. They had a nice niche of serving mid-sized markets in the Midwest, and had added GRR service. There were flights to Florida destinations as well for the local market to use, but those were cut a couple of years back. WN and NK were the winners in that battle. It's a good sign that G4 has not completely abandoned the market, so I expect them to start growing again once conditions improve. Right now, those planes are better served flying snowbirds to Florida and the desert Southwest.

Not MSY, but still interesting for the state: G4 launching SHV-LAX

https://neworleanscitybusiness.com/blog ... s-angeles/

jbs2886 wrote:

One would think they'd be trying to fill up whatever they can right now.

Keep in mind the post above was a pre-Covid assessment; I have no insider information, and thus no real way to know what the airline's/hotels' interactions are now.

Like you, I'd imagine that the hotels would be trying to fill with whatever traffic they can, package or otherwise, at this point.

November 2020 domestic load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated. There is no international update given the service suspensions associated with COVID-19 travel restrictions.

As compared to 2019, airport-wide seat count dropped by 53.1%, and pax traffic fell by 64.1% resulting in a 23.4% decrease in load factors to 61.1%. AA's MSY-MIA route had the best loads of the month at 83.8%. B6's MSY-BOS route had the worst loads of the month at 39.3%.

Interestingly, AA had an equivalent load factor to 2019 on half the capacity and passengers.

November Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline.................Seats..............................Pax............................LF
AA..............107,175(-50.2%)............83,496(-50.3%).........77.9%(-0.1%)
AS................10,858(-63.5%)..............4,884(-79.3%).........45.0%(-34.4%)
B6................11,644(-73.5%)..............5,619(-83.8%)..........48.3%(-38.7%)
DL................93,226(-58.3%)............45,600(-75.4%).........48.9%(-41.0%)
F9.................18,096(-47.0%)............11,093(-61.7%).........61.3%(-27.6%)
G4..................5,940(-46.2%).............2,742(-68.2%)..........46.2%(-28.2%)
NK................87,736(-52.5%)...........61,981(-56.5%)..........70.6%(-8.4%)
SY..................3,402(-36.1%).............1,565(-59.9%)..........46.0%(-37.2%)
UA................77,094(-59.2%)...........55,637(-62.9%)..........72.2%(-8.9%)
WN.............257,817(-48.1%).........138,880(-65.4%)..........53.9%(-33.3%)

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

NolaMD88fan wrote:

AA's MSY-MIA route had the best loads of the month at 83.8%.

Gonna be really interesting to see the total numbers for y.o.2020, particularly for MIA-- won't be surprised if they smash the top10, considering how airports like LAX have been a shell of their former selves, whereas in the Miami area, they've been living the last few months like Covid never happened.

I was in DFW, DCA, and MIA the other day. The first two were relative ghost towns compared to what they were. MIA was packed, with not much if any social distancing going on in the gate areas.

AA is adding a second MSY-MIA flight next week to keep up with the demand, and a third in April. They were at 4X daily pre-covid. A friend of mine there says the MIA flight has been the only consistently full one, day in and day out.

SunsetLimited wrote:

A friend of mine there says the MIA flight has been the only consistently full one, day in and day out.

I wonder if any of the FLL flights are showing similarly, with others?

December and annual 2020 numbers finally posted by the airport. December saw 393,360 passengers which was a 66.2% drop from the previous year. 2020 in total saw a 61.2% decline in passenger levels to 5,289,538. The airport surprisingly saw no change in terms of rank nationally from 2019, and finished the year as the 37th busiest airport in the lower 48. MSY was positioned between SMF and RDU.

In terms of airlines, WN remained the largest carrier, but AA leaped ahead of DL to take the #2 position.

https://flymsy.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Airline-Statistics-December-2020.pdf

NolaMD88fan wrote:

in terms of rank nationally from 2019

Have a link to the national numbers? Interested to see who the top 10 are, in such an anomaly year.

LAX772LR wrote:

NolaMD88fan wrote:

in terms of rank nationally from 2019

Have a link to the national numbers? Interested to see who the top 10 are, in such an anomaly year.

I will post that when the NYC area airports post their numbers. That's all I'm waiting on at this point.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

NolaMD88fan wrote:

in terms of rank nationally from 2019

Have a link to the national numbers? Interested to see who the top 10 are, in such an anomaly year.

I will post that when the NYC area airports post their numbers. That's all I'm waiting on at this point.

Also surprised to learn that CAN was the busiest pax airport for 2020, having narrowly edged out ATL.

The new partnerships formed by AA with B6 and AS have really made AA and OneWorld a formidable force out of MSY when you look at the route map. If I was someone who travelled frequently and wanted to accrue miles, AA would be an airline to consider now. Here is a listing of all of the destinations served by OneWorld or partners non-stop from MSY. This is assuming all pre-COVID routes will be resuming. If I recall correctly, AS had announced the end of the SFO route pre-pandemic.

AUS, BOS, CLT, DCA, DFW, FLL, JFK, LAX, LHR, MIA, ORD, PHL, PHX, SEA.

It will be interesting to see if AA grows a larger frequent flier base out of MSY with the addition of these partnerships.

NolaMD88fan wrote:

The new partnerships formed by AA with B6 and AS have really made AA and OneWorld a formidable force out of MSY when you look at the route map. If I was someone who travelled frequently and wanted to accrue miles, AA would be an airline to consider now. Here is a listing of all of the destinations served by OneWorld or partners non-stop from MSY. This is assuming all pre-COVID routes will be resuming. If I recall correctly, AS had announced the end of the SFO route pre-pandemic.

AUS, BOS, CLT, DCA, DFW, FLL, JFK, LAX, LHR, MIA, ORD, PHL, PHX, SEA.

It will be interesting to see if AA grows a larger frequent flier base out of MSY with the addition of these partnerships.

AA unfortunately is not bringing back MSY-LAX. Instead they’ve opted for PHX year-round. Overall though a nice OW lineup.

Thanks for the update on LAX.

Looks like UA recently cut quote a few scheduled flights in April and May. For example, no morning flight to EWR (had been bookable).

QB504 wrote:

Looks like UA recently cut quote a few scheduled flights in April and May. For example, no morning flight to EWR (had been bookable).

May for UA looks like 16 flights which is the most they’ve had since the pandemic started. The morning EWR hasn’t operated in many months. I’m sure it’ll come back at some point. SFO will likely take longer to return, IMO.

IAH: 6
EWR: 3
DEN: 3
IAD: 2
ORD:2

Things are finally starting to get interesting. I really miss the OAG threads these days. I counted about 104 departures Friday, so we're about 60+ percent of 2019 departures. Looks like April will see a lot more capacity as regional jets are replaced by mainline and NK brings back more destinations.

AA really does have a good lineup. It's crazy they still haven't added a lounge at MSY. I'd have to imagine they or AS would bring LAX back at least by the fall - it's simply too big of a market to ignore. Even NK is adding a second flight a few days per week this summer. I'm guessing AA was more dependent on international connections at LAX than the others.

I also wonder about BNA and RDU - NK seems to be dropping them, at least temporarily, and those could be moneymakers for AA.

I'm also curious to see what WN does in its next schedule update. Last I checked, there were plenty of long-served routes still suspended, such as SAN, MCI, STL, DCA, LGA, and SAT. Most of them seem to be returning in the summer, but there will probably be plenty of demand in April and May. NK and F9 could do well if they can add a few of those before WN returns.

msycajun wrote:

Things are finally starting to get interesting. I really miss the OAG threads these days. I counted about 104 departures Friday, so we're about 60+ percent of 2019 departures. Looks like April will see a lot more capacity as regional jets are replaced by mainline and NK brings back more destinations.

AA really does have a good lineup. It's crazy they still haven't added a lounge at MSY. I'd have to imagine they or AS would bring LAX back at least by the fall - it's simply too big of a market to ignore. Even NK is adding a second flight a few days per week this summer. I'm guessing AA was more dependent on international connections at LAX than the others.

I also wonder about BNA and RDU - NK seems to be dropping them, at least temporarily, and those could be moneymakers for AA.

I'm also curious to see what WN does in its next schedule update. Last I checked, there were plenty of long-served routes still suspended, such as SAN, MCI, STL, DCA, LGA, and SAT. Most of them seem to be returning in the summer, but there will probably be plenty of demand in April and May. NK and F9 could do well if they can add a few of those before WN returns.

I'm very surprised at how slow WN has been on bringing back some of those routes too. As an example, I'll be flying up to see my parents in a couple of weeks. Normally, I'd fly the non-stop to STL with WN, but UA got my money instead since the non-stop wasn't available.

BNA, RDU, and AUS were very new stations for NK, and unfortunately, the pandemic hit right after they had started up. All three stations have seen significant cuts by NK, but I have a feeling those routes will eventually return as leisure travel continues to pick up at an exponential rate this Spring. In the long run, I'm remain hopeful that NK will continue to add more domestic and international destinations that can be supported through local and connecting traffic.

It's great to see the number of daily departures increasing, and I wouldn't be shocked if it gets back to pre-pandemic levels by the Summer on the domestic side. I'm hopeful that BA will start up in July as advertised since both the UK and the US have very high vaccination rates and some European countries (Iceland and Switzerland) have begun opening up to US travelers.

I also apologize for the delayed load factor report. Been really busy at work, but I hope to finish it by tomorrow night. It will be the December and annual 2020 data, so a bit bigger report than normal.

SunsetLimited wrote:

QB504 wrote:

Looks like UA recently cut quote a few scheduled flights in April and May. For example, no morning flight to EWR (had been bookable).

May for UA looks like 16 flights which is the most they’ve had since the pandemic started. The morning EWR hasn’t operated in many months. I’m sure it’ll come back at some point. SFO will likely take longer to return, IMO.

IAH: 6
EWR: 3
DEN: 3
IAD: 2
ORD:2

Agreed on SFO. The entire Bay Area market is likely to be suppressed and long thin routes like MSY will be some of the last to come back. Maybe we'll see WN bring the OAK flight back.

I was in MSY very recently and Bourbon Street was a ghost of its former self. I don’t think MSY is seeing a similar rebound of leisure traffic like Hawaii and Florida are. The demand simply isn’t there (yet).

I don’t know if NK has loaded its finished May schedule yet, but I’m seeing nonstops to both AUS and CUN on 5/10, for example. BNA and RDU are still pushed back.

airplaneboy wrote:

I was in MSY very recently and Bourbon Street was a ghost of its former self. I don’t think MSY is seeing a similar rebound of leisure traffic like Hawaii and Florida are. The demand simply isn’t there (yet).

Each weekend gets busier and busier. During the week it's still fairly dead though. The big hits to our numbers are the loss of cruise and convention traffic. Hopefully, those will begin to rebound this Fall.

msycajun wrote:

I'm also curious to see what WN does in its next schedule update. Last I checked, there were plenty of long-served routes still suspended, such as SAN, MCI, STL, DCA, LGA, and SAT. Most of them seem to be returning in the summer, but there will probably be plenty of demand in April and May. NK and F9 could do well if they can add a few of those before WN returns.

STL started Saturday only in March and is thru May. So not "fully" suspended.