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Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:06 am

maverick4002 wrote:
The Health Minister of TT said that the planned phased opening (they were going to open to certain countries, wondered if USA was apart of that as COVID is a disaster here) is now on pause due to this new strain of Covid and that they may keep TT closed until 2022! Ouch!

That will be the end of BW if that’s the case. They may as well wind up now and come up with the new name for the new airline in 2022.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:15 pm

Caymanair wrote:
caribny wrote:
And the mere fact that Butch realigned his hotels to the majors, abandoning JM, puts a lie to the myth that he offered services that others werent willing to provide. AA, UA and WN all provided service to MBJ from Chicago prior to Covid.


But not until JM did. Even AA execs admitted that he was a fierce competitor. JM created markets that eventually US carriers filled. It cost bags of cash though...



And yet tourism arrivals into Jamaica DOUBLED after he lost control of JM. So did Jamaica benefit when one considers the severe damage that the debt that they had to incur did to them?
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:28 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
The Health Minister of TT said that the planned phased opening (they were going to open to certain countries, wondered if USA was apart of that as COVID is a disaster here) is now on pause due to this new strain of Covid and that they may keep TT closed until 2022! Ouch!

That will be the end of BW if that’s the case. They may as well wind up now and come up with the new name for the new airline in 2022.



BW is going to be one of the casualties of Covid. They are being driven out of KIN and GEO is next. B6 and AA will battle for the JFK GEO, with EA holding its own. EA is now entering the YYZ GEO, and AA dominates the increasing loads on the MIA GEO as Guyana enters its oil boom.

I fear that BW will soon be irrelevant to GEO. All they will have left is POS and if that is closed.........................!!
 
Caymanair
Posts: 525
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 4:53 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:30 pm

caribny wrote:
Caymanair wrote:
caribny wrote:
And the mere fact that Butch realigned his hotels to the majors, abandoning JM, puts a lie to the myth that he offered services that others werent willing to provide. AA, UA and WN all provided service to MBJ from Chicago prior to Covid.


But not until JM did. Even AA execs admitted that he was a fierce competitor. JM created markets that eventually US carriers filled. It cost bags of cash though...



And yet tourism arrivals into Jamaica DOUBLED after he lost control of JM. So did Jamaica benefit when one considers the severe damage that the debt that they had to incur did to them?


I would argue that part of the reason arrivals doubled was precisely because of JM. It was a fierce exercise in marketing that got people on JM (and ultimately into a Sandals resort). AJAG was instrumental in building the MBJ hub... which played no small part in causing MBJ to become a world-class airport and on the destination radar of many airlines.

And we can't discount how that vote of confidence spurred the development of tens of thousands of hotel rooms, which would not have been built if regular, reliable, modern airlift wasn't in place.

Of course the arrival of LCCs has been complimentary to the growth of the package holiday scene... they go hand in hand.

It was damn expensive, but I believe ultimately achieved it's goal. Definitely could've been done with less cash, but if you think the government could've pulled it off more efficiently you don't know Jamaica. And finally, if you're going to funnel cash into the hands of the private sector, you might as well funnel it into locals hands. An overseas company would've done the same thing and flown out on the last flight with their money.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 398
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 11, 2021 9:08 pm

caribny wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
The Health Minister of TT said that the planned phased opening (they were going to open to certain countries, wondered if USA was apart of that as COVID is a disaster here) is now on pause due to this new strain of Covid and that they may keep TT closed until 2022! Ouch!

That will be the end of BW if that’s the case. They may as well wind up now and come up with the new name for the new airline in 2022.



BW is going to be one of the casualties of Covid. They are being driven out of KIN and GEO is next. B6 and AA will battle for the JFK GEO, with EA holding its own. EA is now entering the YYZ GEO, and AA dominates the increasing loads on the MIA GEO as Guyana enters its oil boom.

I fear that BW will soon be irrelevant to GEO. All they will have left is POS and if that is closed.........................!!


You with the doom and gloom towards BW as per usual. Yes, POS being closed for eternity is no good but if these were non-covid times, I think you are overestimating the effect of B6 and AA on BW in non-tourist markets. BW has more than held its own against B6 in the non-tourist markets (US point of sale) and as far as I am concerned, the Jamaicans could kick rocks. They like nothing TT related and never gave BW a chance. BW should have left, or at least not operate a loss making operation there a long time ago. Focus on what makes money, even if its one flight.
 
mjba257
Posts: 135
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:16 am

My hopes for the future of Caribbean traffic
- CUN builds a US border pre-clearance facility allowing non-stop flights to numerous cities that do not have FIS facilities
- More flight options to secondary markets like FDF, PTP, POS, BGI, SVD, GND from the mainland other than just MIA or JFK. I know AA is starting CLT-BGI which is a great start. Perhaps DL can start more secondary markets from ATL
- UA massively increases their Caribbean presence, which is the biggest gap in their international network. I don't wanna start another "UA Southeastern Hub" thread, but that would explain UA's weak Caribbean network. What if they started some flights from either MCO or TPA, two FL cities UA has a decent presence, to places like SJU, CUN, NAS, PUJ, SXM, AUA, etc.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:42 am

mjba257 wrote:
My hopes for the future of Caribbean traffic
- CUN builds a US border pre-clearance facility allowing non-stop flights to numerous cities that do not have FIS facilities
- More flight options to secondary markets like FDF, PTP, POS, BGI, SVD, GND from the mainland other than just MIA or JFK. I know AA is starting CLT-BGI which is a great start. Perhaps DL can start more secondary markets from ATL
- UA massively increases their Caribbean presence, which is the biggest gap in their international network. I don't wanna start another "UA Southeastern Hub" thread, but that would explain UA's weak Caribbean network. What if they started some flights from either MCO or TPA, two FL cities UA has a decent presence, to places like SJU, CUN, NAS, PUJ, SXM, AUA, etc.

CLT-BGI has been running for a while now. AA flew it daily pre-COVID and brought it back briefly post COVID. Not sure if it’s currently running.

Pre COVID:

PTP had flights to MIA, JFK and ATL. With the relatively small size of the US-Guadeloupe market, that was more than enough.

POS had flights to MIA, FLL, MCO, JFK, EWR and IAH. As POS is primarily a VFR and business market, I don’t see from where else any airline would fly. BW previously tried IAD. It didn’t work. DL previously tried ATL. It didn’t work.

BGI had flights to BOS, JFK, EWR, CLT, and MIA. DL tried ATL. It didn’t work. B6 tried FLL. It didn’t work. AA tried DFW. It didn’t work. Can’t see where else anyone would fly from.

SVD had flights to MIA and JFK. SVD is a VFR market and not a very big one. Don’t see where else anyone is going to fly from.

GND had flights from CLT, JFK, and MIA. Demand doesn’t warrant more destinations.

Re UA, they have a hub in NYC. That’s not a bad place from which to run your Caribbean flights. IMO UA should be bigger on EWR-Caribbean than it is. At the very least, they should be able to serve anything B6 does out of EWR. It doesn’t need a southeastern hub to achieve that.
 
DaveMetroD
Posts: 40
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2021 4:05 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 11:26 am

mjba257 wrote:
My hopes for the future of Caribbean traffic
- CUN builds a US border pre-clearance facility allowing non-stop flights to numerous cities that do not have FIS facilities

I think that may be precluded by the increase in organized crime throughout the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
jm02
Posts: 38
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:34 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:26 pm

caribny wrote:
Caymanair wrote:
caribny wrote:
And the mere fact that Butch realigned his hotels to the majors, abandoning JM, puts a lie to the myth that he offered services that others werent willing to provide. AA, UA and WN all provided service to MBJ from Chicago prior to Covid.


But not until JM did. Even AA execs admitted that he was a fierce competitor. JM created markets that eventually US carriers filled. It cost bags of cash though...



And yet tourism arrivals into Jamaica DOUBLED after he lost control of JM. So did Jamaica benefit when one considers the severe damage that the debt that they had to incur did to them?


In 2002 Jamaica signed an open skies agreement with the USA which allows unrestricted capacity and frequencies, prior to that only a certain number of airlines could fly on certain routes.
The Govt of Jamaica took over Air Jamaica in 2004. At that stage JM had lots of unpaid debt and was failing, much of that blame is due to AJAG having taking the choice to model the new JM on Sinagpore Airlines (to suit the Sandals brand) rather than replicating Southwest Airlines model.
So the failure of JM was assured by government and investor action.

From friday all passengers to the UK will need to be in possession of a negative PCR test, taken within 72 hours of departure.
 
baje427
Posts: 880
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:31 pm

CLT-BGI is currently operating which surprised me I guess it does better than one would expect. The only other destinations I could see working into BGI would perhaps be a summer seasonal MCO .For winter IAD and PHL.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2995
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 3:31 pm

mjba257 wrote:
My hopes for the future of Caribbean traffic
- CUN builds a US border pre-clearance facility allowing non-stop flights to numerous cities that do not have FIS facilities
Under other circumstances, CUN should have gotten a US pre-clearance facility, but IMHO, wagers on that happening soon are very low, even if the demand for such a facility is there.

- More flight options to secondary markets like FDF, PTP, POS, BGI, SVD, GND from the mainland other than just MIA or JFK. I know AA is starting CLT-BGI which is a great start. Perhaps DL can start more secondary markets from ATL
In the case of POS, the key lies in whatever cooperation BW would have with either DL (SkyTeam) or UA (Star Alliance connecting partner?).
DL ATL-POS might survive with code-share, same for UA IAD-POS or BW POS-IAD.
As other non-VFR U.S. markets for BW.. the potential destinations list is very short:
Depending on UA IAH-POS performance, BW could grab a piece of the Houston market with POS-HOU at least thrice weekly.
IAD only if BW has code-share with UA and there could be some connecting traffic to GEO, same could be said for BOS.
POS-DFW? - Is there any oil-traffic BW could get from that route?
POS-TPA? - would depend on BW @ MCO numbers, BW seems to keep both MIA and FLL regardless of how close those airports are.
- UA massively increases their Caribbean presence, which is the biggest gap in their international network. I don't wanna start another "UA Southeastern Hub" thread, but that would explain UA's weak Caribbean network. What if they started some flights from either MCO or TPA, two FL cities UA has a decent presence, to places like SJU, CUN, NAS, PUJ, SXM, AUA, etc.
Seems UA strategy in Florida is to let other airlines fly to MIA/FLL/MCO/TPA and let passengers connect to UA network there.
UA had a MIA hub once, it failed and neither MCO nor TPA are cut to be (UA) hubs when MIA is where the money is.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 5:51 pm

Caymanair wrote:

And we can't discount how that vote of confidence spurred the development of tens of thousands of hotel rooms, which would not have been built if regular, reliable, modern airlift wasn't in place.

Of course the arrival of LCCs has been complimentary to the growth of the package holiday scene... they go hand in hand.

It was damn expensive, but I believe ultimately achieved it's goal. Definitely could've been done with less cash, but if you think the government could've pulled it off more efficiently you don't know Jamaica. And finally, if you're going to funnel cash into the hands of the private sector, you might as well funnel it into locals hands. An overseas company would've done the same thing and flown out on the last flight with their money.



In fact the owners of MBJ claimed that the presence of a highly subsidized national carrier kept other carriers out of the Jamaica market. Note that when JM began to collapse this is when others expanded. And what % of JMs passengers through the hub were transferring to other islands any way? When it was closed did MBJ lose business? I doubt. It was running empty planes around the Caribbean which pushed up costs and therefore losses.

In 1994 tourism stayover arrivals into Jamaica were 1.1 million, increasing to 1.4 million by 2004. These arrivals are now 2.7 million. Not sure how JM can be credited for this growth, especially as Sandals had by then become a leading brand. Give credit to Sandals for Jamaica's growth. As we saw when JM was seized from Sandals and he immediately shifted his guests to AA and DL JM wasnt that critical, even to Butch.

Had Jamaica used the money, that it lavished on JM, on programs to deal with the conditions underlying its extreme high crime rate (a reason why many refuse to visit Jamaica) it would be attracting even more visitors to the island. It would also spread more of the tourist dollars into the economy as more tourists would leave the resorts allowing more people benefit from opportunities that this industry can potentially provide.

Like the DR Jamaica is highly successful in tourism despite no longer having a national carrier.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:08 pm

maverick4002 wrote:

You with the doom and gloom towards BW as per usual. Yes, POS being closed for eternity is no good but if these were non-covid times, I think you are overestimating the effect of B6 and AA on BW in non-tourist markets. BW has more than held its own against B6 in the non-tourist markets (US point of sale) and as far as I am concerned, the Jamaicans could kick rocks. They like nothing TT related and never gave BW a chance. BW should have left, or at least not operate a loss making operation there a long time ago. Focus on what makes money, even if its one flight.




Clearly POS isnt making money as it is closed and someone reported likely to remain so for the rest of the year. GEO, formerly a good market for BW, due to its combination of high loads and yields, is being lost. AA and B6 are now in the JFK GEO nonstop market with low fares, which BW cannot match. EA keeps its niche crowd because it offers massive baggage allowances which BW cannot match. And now EA enters the YYZ GEO market. The JFK route is a 2 carrier route and YYZ cannot support more than 1 carrier. Someone is going to be squeezed out. Guess which one. Note that BW doesnt enjoy brand loyalty among Guyanese as it does with the TT crowd. Not sure

Discuss how an airline with parked planes can survive.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQOkFt5XMTk This was BW in that era when they replaced JM. Guyanese and Jamaicans were forced to bear the brunt of the delays. When BW switched from JMs 320s to its 738 planes it was an operational fiasco. Jamaicans are a fiercely nationalistic crowd, especially that working class segment who were the bed rock of JM. So now that they have to deal with a "foreign carrier" (face it Jamaican working class culture sees nothing in TT culture to identify with). Why do you expect them not to be angry?
Last edited by caribny on Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 398
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:15 pm

caribny wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:

You with the doom and gloom towards BW as per usual. Yes, POS being closed for eternity is no good but if these were non-covid times, I think you are overestimating the effect of B6 and AA on BW in non-tourist markets. BW has more than held its own against B6 in the non-tourist markets (US point of sale) and as far as I am concerned, the Jamaicans could kick rocks. They like nothing TT related and never gave BW a chance. BW should have left, or at least not operate a loss making operation there a long time ago. Focus on what makes money, even if its one flight.



So outline a scenario for BW. They have been driven out of the KIN markets, except for JFK KIN, now down to less than daily. They are now being driven out of GEO as AA and B6 carve up the lucrative JFK GEO market, and now with EA reportedly entering YYZ GEO that market is in jeopardy.

If POS is going to be closed for another year what options does BW have? Do you see them surviving yet another year with no POS business? BW can hold its own only if it can fly. Its currently not flying, and unless you are about to report that POS will reopen in a few months its prospects seem quite dire, aside from its ATR routes.

Discuss how an airline with parked planes can survive.

So let us go down memory lane. BW inaugurates service on its KIN North America routes. Due to poor planning we see massive delays. They always say that you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Do you think that Jamaicans should have supported a TT airline when using them entailed massive delays and appalling treatment? In fact BW justified all the prejudices that Jamaicans have towards traditional TT haughtiness and arrogance. Then you wonder why Jamaicans never used them. Unlike Guyanese they did have a choice. The fact that BW switched its fleet before they were ready and then encountered operational problems is THEIR issue and really to expect the travelling public to put up with that is appalling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQOkFt5XMTk This was BW in that era and Guyanese and Jamaicans were forced to bear the brunt of the delays.


Citation needed on being driven out of GEO?

I dont care about the Jamaicans in this regard. They never wanted BW. BW bid on JM and were declined (which is fine) and then all other suitors left them high and dry and the GOJ came back begging BW to help them out. At that point they shouldn't have and just done it their own way but help your neighbors and all that. The Jamaicans were mad and then didnt want to support a TT thing but instead chose to support Fly Jamaica which was ironically a Guyanese enterprise. I dont see losing out on Jamaica international market being THAT big of a deal. Was it ever a money maker for BW? Does the JM govt even contribute to the profits and losses made on the operation? Dont they have a % stake in BW?

And obviously if TT stays closed until next year BW will likely be doomed. I never disagreed with that on my initial response. My issue was with you just automatically thinking that becuase AA / B6 and Eastern jump on GEO it means BW is the first one out. They have been here before and done well enough, I think they deserve a bit more credit, especially as this is not a heavy tourist market which would favor the American carriers.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:48 pm

https://guyanachronicle.com/2019/12/31/ ... ir-travel/

This covers Guyanese attitudes towards BW. Of course now that AA and B6 are committed to GEO there are no longer cries for a national carrier. So the new kids enter the market, AA with rock bottom fares. B6 with a shiny new plane and IFE way beyond what BW can cover will take away BWs market share.

Unless POS opens up very soon BW is in dire straights.
 
AngelAirways
Posts: 482
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 1999 3:55 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 6:54 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
Happy New year to everyone and hopefully 2021 will be much better for Caribbean aviation.

Per Crankyflier, B6 has dropped JFK-GEO for January/February. I find their service on the route to be extremely strange. Why start a new destination, serve it for two weeks and then drop it for two months after that?

https://crankyflier.com/2020/12/28/jetb ... etaliates/

I also just checked B6’s website and I do not see GEO listed as a destination in the drop down menu anymore. If this is permanently gone, it represents one of the strangest start and stops of a route I have ever seen.


According to the OAG thread, it's dropped for Jan/Feb and suppose to restart in March for Easter when they expect demand to return. It is the strangest start but we are living in nonnormal times.

But to be fair Jan/Feb cuts are brutal with the airlines trying to be aggressive at first but the reality is demand is still not there.


Grenada has increased their quarantine requirement upon arrival to between 5-6 days (3 days quarantine after arrival, a second Covid test, and then up to 3 day wait for results of second test). This means the island is not practical as a destination for tourists on vacation who are looking to spend one week or less there - leaving just VFR traffic. VFR travel in Jan Feb is low. The reason B6 restarted the route in autumn is because there was still a lot of pent up demand of people who needed to travel there and could not do so in spring when the border was completely closed. I am sure they will resume service when the island loosens up its quarantine requirements. In the meantime let AA suffer the losses and that's sufficient capacity to carry VFR and essential business traffic.
 
mjba257
Posts: 135
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 7:08 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
mjba257 wrote:
Re UA, they have a hub in NYC. That’s not a bad place from which to run your Caribbean flights. IMO UA should be bigger on EWR-Caribbean than it is. At the very least, they should be able to serve anything B6 does out of EWR. It doesn’t need a southeastern hub to achieve that.


Agree that UA needs more EWR-Caribbean flights. But I'm speaking in terms of connecting traffic. Flying to the Caribbean through EWR requires backtracking for pretty much everybody outside of the Northeast. For folks in the Midwest, Southeast, etc, AA offers CLT and MIA for connections, while DL has ATL. But what does UA have? Again, I don't wanna turn this into another "UA needs a Southeastern hub" thread, but it's fair to say that UA's Caribbean strategy is far more geared towards O&D vacationers from NYC than it is the rest of the country. But if it works for them it works
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 8:59 pm

AngelAirways wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
Happy New year to everyone and hopefully 2021 will be much better for Caribbean aviation.

Per Crankyflier, B6 has dropped JFK-GEO for January/February. I find their service on the route to be extremely strange. Why start a new destination, serve it for two weeks and then drop it for two months after that?

https://crankyflier.com/2020/12/28/jetb ... etaliates/

I also just checked B6’s website and I do not see GEO listed as a destination in the drop down menu anymore. If this is permanently gone, it represents one of the strangest start and stops of a route I have ever seen.


According to the OAG thread, it's dropped for Jan/Feb and suppose to restart in March for Easter when they expect demand to return. It is the strangest start but we are living in nonnormal times.

But to be fair Jan/Feb cuts are brutal with the airlines trying to be aggressive at first but the reality is demand is still not there.


Grenada has increased their quarantine requirement upon arrival to between 5-6 days (3 days quarantine after arrival, a second Covid test, and then up to 3 day wait for results of second test). This means the island is not practical as a destination for tourists on vacation who are looking to spend one week or less there - leaving just VFR traffic. VFR travel in Jan Feb is low. The reason B6 restarted the route in autumn is because there was still a lot of pent up demand of people who needed to travel there and could not do so in spring when the border was completely closed. I am sure they will resume service when the island loosens up its quarantine requirements. In the meantime let AA suffer the losses and that's sufficient capacity to carry VFR and essential business traffic.


GEO is Guyana, not Grenada.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:14 pm

2travel2know2 wrote:
mjba257 wrote:
My hopes for the future of Caribbean traffic
- CUN builds a US border pre-clearance facility allowing non-stop flights to numerous cities that do not have FIS facilities
Under other circumstances, CUN should have gotten a US pre-clearance facility, but IMHO, wagers on that happening soon are very low, even if the demand for such a facility is there.

- More flight options to secondary markets like FDF, PTP, POS, BGI, SVD, GND from the mainland other than just MIA or JFK. I know AA is starting CLT-BGI which is a great start. Perhaps DL can start more secondary markets from ATL
In the case of POS, the key lies in whatever cooperation BW would have with either DL (SkyTeam) or UA (Star Alliance connecting partner?).
DL ATL-POS might survive with code-share, same for UA IAD-POS or BW POS-IAD.
As other non-VFR U.S. markets for BW.. the potential destinations list is very short:
Depending on UA IAH-POS performance, BW could grab a piece of the Houston market with POS-HOU at least thrice weekly.
IAD only if BW has code-share with UA and there could be some connecting traffic to GEO, same could be said for BOS.
POS-DFW? - Is there any oil-traffic BW could get from that route?
POS-TPA? - would depend on BW @ MCO numbers, BW seems to keep both MIA and FLL regardless of how close those airports are.
- UA massively increases their Caribbean presence, which is the biggest gap in their international network. I don't wanna start another "UA Southeastern Hub" thread, but that would explain UA's weak Caribbean network. What if they started some flights from either MCO or TPA, two FL cities UA has a decent presence, to places like SJU, CUN, NAS, PUJ, SXM, AUA, etc.
Seems UA strategy in Florida is to let other airlines fly to MIA/FLL/MCO/TPA and let passengers connect to UA network there.
UA had a MIA hub once, it failed and neither MCO nor TPA are cut to be (UA) hubs when MIA is where the money is.


BW previously tried POS-IAD with codesharing with UA and it didn't work out. Things may have changed since then but I doubt it in the post COVID world.

DL flew ATL-POS and it was dropped. I don't see what a codeshare would improve. Where would people connect beyond POS that would be attractive and make the flight viable?

DFW is not an oil market.

BW only flies POS-MCO twice a week and that's a larger market than TPA. TPA isn't viable IMO. MIA and FLL are (were) both flown because there's enough of a market to So. Fla to support both. VFR, business and outbound tourism to MIA and VFR traffic to FLL.
 
2travel2know2
Posts: 2995
Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 3:01 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:44 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
BW only flies POS-MCO twice a week and that's a larger market than TPA. TPA isn't viable IMO. MIA and FLL are (were) both flown because there's enough of a market to So. Fla to support both. VFR, business and outbound tourism to MIA and VFR traffic to FLL.
Twice weekly BW POS-MCO looks like it's mostly a leisure route for Trinis who want holidays in Orlando without flying to BW MIA/FLL or connecting CM @ PTY. B.T.W., For such operation, BW would save money flying to SFB instead of MCO.
What it looks like is that BW should consolidate itself in its North American P2P POS markets: South East Florida (MIA/FLL), NYC (JFK/EWR) and Toronto (YYZ).
When there'd be some kind of Trini/Guyanese S.E.Florida demographics north of Broward County, BW to PBI could be an addition to MIA/FLL.
If airfares were extremely competitive and there were no major issues with baggage-allowances., wonder what the Trini/Guyanese market reaction to any BW POS-SWF (for NYC) and/or POS-YHM (for YYZ) would be,
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 398
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 12:32 am

2travel2know2 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
BW only flies POS-MCO twice a week and that's a larger market than TPA. TPA isn't viable IMO. MIA and FLL are (were) both flown because there's enough of a market to So. Fla to support both. VFR, business and outbound tourism to MIA and VFR traffic to FLL.
Twice weekly BW POS-MCO looks like it's mostly a leisure route for Trinis who want holidays in Orlando without flying to BW MIA/FLL or connecting CM @ PTY. B.T.W., For such operation, BW would save money flying to SFB instead of MCO.
What it looks like is that BW should consolidate itself in its North American P2P POS markets: South East Florida (MIA/FLL), NYC (JFK/EWR) and Toronto (YYZ).
When there'd be some kind of Trini/Guyanese S.E.Florida demographics north of Broward County, BW to PBI could be an addition to MIA/FLL.
If airfares were extremely competitive and there were no major issues with baggage-allowances., wonder what the Trini/Guyanese market reaction to any BW POS-SWF (for NYC) and/or POS-YHM (for YYZ) would be,


POS - SWF will not work. Way to far out of the way. Same with EWR to an extent. As far as I recall UA doesnt fly year round from EWR because the demand isnt there. The vast majority of the TT diaspora is in Brooklyn and getting to EWR is just a damn pain (real or perceived)
 
mjba257
Posts: 135
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:32 am

maverick4002 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
BW only flies POS-MCO twice a week and that's a larger market than TPA. TPA isn't viable IMO. MIA and FLL are (were) both flown because there's enough of a market to So. Fla to support both. VFR, business and outbound tourism to MIA and VFR traffic to FLL.
Twice weekly BW POS-MCO looks like it's mostly a leisure route for Trinis who want holidays in Orlando without flying to BW MIA/FLL or connecting CM @ PTY. B.T.W., For such operation, BW would save money flying to SFB instead of MCO.
What it looks like is that BW should consolidate itself in its North American P2P POS markets: South East Florida (MIA/FLL), NYC (JFK/EWR) and Toronto (YYZ).
When there'd be some kind of Trini/Guyanese S.E.Florida demographics north of Broward County, BW to PBI could be an addition to MIA/FLL.
If airfares were extremely competitive and there were no major issues with baggage-allowances., wonder what the Trini/Guyanese market reaction to any BW POS-SWF (for NYC) and/or POS-YHM (for YYZ) would be,


POS - SWF will not work. Way to far out of the way. Same with EWR to an extent. As far as I recall UA doesnt fly year round from EWR because the demand isnt there. The vast majority of the TT diaspora is in Brooklyn and getting to EWR is just a damn pain (real or perceived)


Forgive me for my lack of knowledge about the Caribbean, but is POS more business than leisure? Is there a big oil market in Trinidad & Tobago? I know VFR is a big drive, particularly for MIA and NYC flights, but what is the leisure presence like?
 
mjba257
Posts: 135
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:21 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:37 am

Also to note, we talk a lot about the majors, but what about LCC? Does anybody foresee perhaps G4 getting in on the Caribbean market? Right now, they are a strictly domestic carrier, limiting their destinations to only PR and the USVI. I know they used to fly CVG-SJU. What if they restart? As well as get approval for int'l flights, like CUN, MBJ, NAS, PUJ? There is a demand for nonstop Caribbean flights from CVG, CLE, SDF, BNA, RDU, MSY - all of which G4 has a presence. Heck, even LEX (my home airport btw) could probably support a seasonal CUN flight, especially during Spring Break (UK students love Cancun)
 
jm02
Posts: 38
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:34 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:54 am

The US joins Canada and the UK in requiring proof of a negative Covid-19 test before allowing visitors to fly into the country from other nations. Measure take effect on Jan. 26 and replaces ban on entry for most non-U.S. citizens.

Over 70% of the regions tourist arrivals come from these nations and with visitors needing expensive tests to go to most Caribbean nations then to return to their home, only the most determined will travel.

Things should start improvinng from Q3 2021 when covid vaccines are expected to be widely available and ICAO forecasts traffic to be at 60% post covid levels. Difficult months ahead for airlines.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:33 am

mjba257 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
2travel2know2 wrote:
Twice weekly BW POS-MCO looks like it's mostly a leisure route for Trinis who want holidays in Orlando without flying to BW MIA/FLL or connecting CM @ PTY. B.T.W., For such operation, BW would save money flying to SFB instead of MCO.
What it looks like is that BW should consolidate itself in its North American P2P POS markets: South East Florida (MIA/FLL), NYC (JFK/EWR) and Toronto (YYZ).
When there'd be some kind of Trini/Guyanese S.E.Florida demographics north of Broward County, BW to PBI could be an addition to MIA/FLL.
If airfares were extremely competitive and there were no major issues with baggage-allowances., wonder what the Trini/Guyanese market reaction to any BW POS-SWF (for NYC) and/or POS-YHM (for YYZ) would be,


POS - SWF will not work. Way to far out of the way. Same with EWR to an extent. As far as I recall UA doesnt fly year round from EWR because the demand isnt there. The vast majority of the TT diaspora is in Brooklyn and getting to EWR is just a damn pain (real or perceived)


Forgive me for my lack of knowledge about the Caribbean, but is POS more business than leisure? Is there a big oil market in Trinidad & Tobago? I know VFR is a big drive, particularly for MIA and NYC flights, but what is the leisure presence like?

POS is only a major leisure market for about 2-3 weeks a year surrounding its annual carnival celebrations. TAB (Tobago) is a leisure destination but albeit not a big one, especially not from the US. Most of Tobago’s visitors come from Trinidad. Outside of the carnival period, Trinidad is definitely more of a business market and yes it is a big oil market. That’s what keeps the IAH route afloat.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:39 am

jm02 wrote:
The US joins Canada and the UK in requiring proof of a negative Covid-19 test before allowing visitors to fly into the country from other nations. Measure take effect on Jan. 26 and replaces ban on entry for most non-U.S. citizens.

Over 70% of the regions tourist arrivals come from these nations and with visitors needing expensive tests to go to most Caribbean nations then to return to their home, only the most determined will travel.

Things should start improvinng from Q3 2021 when covid vaccines are expected to be widely available and ICAO forecasts traffic to be at 60% post covid levels. Difficult months ahead for airlines.
The US requirement will be a crushing blow to regional tourism. Proximity allows for a lot of short trips which are a lot less attractive now if a day must be spent figuring out how and where to get a COVID test. Even for longer trips, having to factor this in adds a level of complexity that makes the trip much less attractive. Also, in many instances, the various destinations in the Caribbean may simply not have the resources to meet the sudden need for US tourists to get tested before their return. And to the extent that some do, I’m sure the cost of getting tested will turn many off as in several instances that will mean having to pay to get tested to go on vacation and then having to pay to get tested to return to the US. This is a major blow to the region that for the most part relaxed restrictions in order to revive the tourism sector.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 926
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:43 pm

baje427 wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
caribny wrote:

The only Caribbean islands where JM had significant market share was SLU (where he had at least 2 hotels) and GND. His operation to ANU was a failure and his market share to BGI was small, and mainly VFR. The goal was to use Jamaican taxpayers to subsidize HIS hotels via JM. JMs cost structure was extremely high because Butch just didnt understand that running an airline isnt like running a hotel chain, plus he had carte blanche from the Jamaican gov't to do as he wished. In so doing he put Jamaica into financial stress which is why eventually the IMF insisted that the airline be shut down.

Interesting to note that Jamaican tourism arrivals soared since Butch exited JM. Also that as soon as Butch was forced to hand over JM back to the gov't he shifted his business to other airlines. JM had levels of debt in line with some of the smaller Caribbean islands! Over expansion and a plethora of low yield routes. PHX to MBJ? Why?


I think we are blaming Butch Stewart too much for the failure of JM and not remembered that the Jamaican Government also held 25% but they also collaborated with JM fly these routes, because that at the time the US airlines did not want to fly tourist routes to Jamaica.
We have to remember that before 2005, the major US airline was operating was AA from MIA or JFK, with regional governments being forced to provide a subsidies to the airline. WN was not flying internationally, B6 was still a young airline, NK was changing its business model and the big 6 were in all sorts of trouble.

JM was flying all sorts of routes to bypass the old system; for instance MBJ-ORD would need to pay AA to fly there so they encouraged Stewart and company to fly these loss making routes and provide a bailout in the end as a result.
It is interesting that after JM got back in Government hands Butch Stewart forgot about JM and aligned his hotels to the airline's competitors.

gunnerman wrote:
For several years BW operated a daily flight using the Tristar between POS and LHR with stops (in both directions) at BGI (on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays), at ANU (on Wednesdays and Fridays) and at UVF (on Tuesdays and Sundays). The introduction of the A340 enabled nonstops to be operated and BW certainly did do some of them.


The L1011 did flew a couple flights nonstop from POS-LHR. The issue was BWIA had an equipment problem on the route as the A340 was too big for the airline, but was needed to avoid ETOPS. BWIA was actually looking at the B767 and A332, and I believe the A332 won but the airline simply could not get ETOPs to fly across the Atlantic.

Didn't they refurbish the Tristars a little before the A340 arrived? I remember flying on the Tristar to LHR a few years later I flew on one to POS and the seats atleast were different. It's so funny back then the Tristar seemed like such a large aircraft.


Yes the L1011s were refurbished in 2000 when the did the new logo. They had new seat covers, new overhead bins, carpets, lavatory and some navigational upgrades. Three were refurbished and one was sent into the desert eventually at the end of 2000. The sad fact was the a/cs were retired shortly after in 2002 when the first A340 came in.

mjba257 wrote:
Also to note, we talk a lot about the majors, but what about LCC? Does anybody foresee perhaps G4 getting in on the Caribbean market? Right now, they are a strictly domestic carrier, limiting their destinations to only PR and the USVI. I know they used to fly CVG-SJU. What if they restart? As well as get approval for int'l flights, like CUN, MBJ, NAS, PUJ? There is a demand for nonstop Caribbean flights from CVG, CLE, SDF, BNA, RDU, MSY - all of which G4 has a presence. Heck, even LEX (my home airport btw) could probably support a seasonal CUN flight, especially during Spring Break (UK students love Cancun)


That is an interesting question, G4 I see more operating in the shorter route high volumes markets to CUN, MBJ, NAS, PUJ when things get better. There is always the bargain hunting traveler that only cares about the price of the product, which is the market they are operating in.

mjba257 wrote:
Forgive me for my lack of knowledge about the Caribbean, but is POS more business than leisure? Is there a big oil market in Trinidad & Tobago? I know VFR is a big drive, particularly for MIA and NYC flights, but what is the leisure presence like?


POS is the largest Business Market in the English speaking Caribbean due to the Energy market and a large VFR market, but most of those markets are concentrated in the North East and Florida. There are some fragmented demand in ATL, IAH, CLT, WAS and to a much smaller take in California. As a result MIA, YYZ and IAH are highly business concentrated in demand, DC is to a smaller extent. NYC, FLL, MCO are more VFR or leisure, NYC is a mix but it is more leisure demand than business.

2travel2know2 wrote:
Twice weekly BW POS-MCO looks like it's mostly a leisure route for Trinis who want holidays in Orlando without flying to BW MIA/FLL or connecting CM @ PTY. B.T.W., For such operation, BW would save money flying to SFB instead of MCO.What it looks like is that BW should consolidate itself in its North American P2P POS markets: South East Florida (MIA/FLL), NYC (JFK/EWR) and Toronto (YYZ).When there'd be some kind of Trini/Guyanese S.E.Florida demographics north of Broward County, BW to PBI could be an addition to MIA/FLL.If airfares were extremely competitive and there were no major issues with baggage-allowances., wonder what the Trini/Guyanese market reaction to any BW POS-SWF (for NYC) and/or POS-YHM (for YYZ) would be,


POS-MCO was 3w with 4w at High season sometimes, before the Covid there were plans to increase flights there again. SBF will not work from this market as most people recognize MCO rather than SBF.

POS-SFL, this is tricky because the Demand in really split between both airports- Data shows MIA is heavily Business and premium they pay makes the route highly profitable. On the other hand FLL is heavily VFR and the bulk of the tickets are to Y. I am interesting to see what they decide to do when things build again either consolidate MIA or resume normal operations.

NYC/EWR- I mean the only reason to EWR is to capture connection traffic to BNA and PHL, most of the West India diaspora is concentrated in Kings, Queens and Nassau County and EWR is a hustle to get to.

POS-IAH will start when things return, as this market has seen a significant increase in both VFR and Business as Texas grows. They want to start 3w.

Brickell305 wrote:
BW previously tried POS-IAD with codesharing with UA and it didn't work out. Things may have changed since then but I doubt it in the post COVID world.DL flew ATL-POS and it was dropped. I don't see what a codeshare would improve. Where would people connect beyond POS that would be attractive and make the flight viable?DFW is not an oil market.BW only flies POS-MCO twice a week and that's a larger market than TPA. TPA isn't viable IMO. MIA and FLL are (were) both flown because there's enough of a market to So. Fla to support both. VFR, business and outbound tourism to MIA and VFR traffic to FLL.


POS-IAD did ok back then; I know CAL wanted to restart the route but resources at the time constrained them from restarting service. The only way to grow beyond the current demand which is about 2-3w is the have a code sharing agreement with UA to capture markets like BOS, PHL, CLE, ORD and BNA like they use to. IAD was about 50pax per day each way when BWIA flew the route, dat now suggest its about 55 now, but again 3w at best.

POS-ATL was interesting route also, BWIA wanted to do this route 3w but was tied up as a result of the CAT2 downgrade. DL then decided to start the route and was flying between 45,000-50,000 pax per year. ATL-POS is about 60 pax per day, not enough for daily flights but demand is there for 3w.
Forget TPA, MCO is nearby and captures the market catchment.
All ah we is one family
 
caribbean484
Posts: 926
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:47 pm

jm02 wrote:
caribny wrote:
Caymanair wrote:

But not until JM did. Even AA execs admitted that he was a fierce competitor. JM created markets that eventually US carriers filled. It cost bags of cash though...



And yet tourism arrivals into Jamaica DOUBLED after he lost control of JM. So did Jamaica benefit when one considers the severe damage that the debt that they had to incur did to them?


In 2002 Jamaica signed an open skies agreement with the USA which allows unrestricted capacity and frequencies, prior to that only a certain number of airlines could fly on certain routes.
The Govt of Jamaica took over Air Jamaica in 2004. At that stage JM had lots of unpaid debt and was failing, much of that blame is due to AJAG having taking the choice to model the new JM on Sinagpore Airlines (to suit the Sandals brand) rather than replicating Southwest Airlines model.
So the failure of JM was assured by government and investor action.

From friday all passengers to the UK will need to be in possession of a negative PCR test, taken within 72 hours of departure.


I mentioned that we were putting too much blame on the AJAG and rather not share the blame with the GOJ also which went along with the plans for JM. JM was operating like the EK of the Caribbean when they could not get the revenue to carry to cost to deliver such service.

jm02 wrote:
The US joins Canada and the UK in requiring proof of a negative Covid-19 test before allowing visitors to fly into the country from other nations. Measure take effect on Jan. 26 and replaces ban on entry for most non-U.S. citizens.

Over 70% of the regions tourist arrivals come from these nations and with visitors needing expensive tests to go to most Caribbean nations then to return to their home, only the most determined will travel.

Things should start improvinng from Q3 2021 when covid vaccines are expected to be widely available and ICAO forecasts traffic to be at 60% post covid levels. Difficult months ahead for airlines.


I don't how much the airlines can take with all the changing requirements and open the closed boarders.
All ah we is one family
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 16, 2021 1:36 pm

VS has announced that it’s suspending flights to ANU from the end of January to February 28. I’m not sure what other Caribbean destinations will be suspended. This being a casualty of the UK’s latest lockdown.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1191
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:04 pm

Caribbean nations frantically struggle to increase testing as US and UK demand returning holidaymakers present negative result.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9148787/Caribbean-nations-frantically-struggle-increase-testing.html
 
Janj
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2012 3:35 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Sat Jan 16, 2021 5:33 pm

mjba257 wrote:
Also to note, we talk a lot about the majors, but what about LCC? Does anybody foresee perhaps G4 getting in on the Caribbean market? Right now, they are a strictly domestic carrier, limiting their destinations to only PR and the USVI. I know they used to fly CVG-SJU. What if they restart? As well as get approval for int'l flights, like CUN, MBJ, NAS, PUJ? There is a demand for nonstop Caribbean flights from CVG, CLE, SDF, BNA, RDU, MSY - all of which G4 has a presence. Heck, even LEX (my home airport btw) could probably support a seasonal CUN flight, especially during Spring Break (UK students love Cancun)


Allegiant flew seasonally to PIT, RDU, and CVG with a year-round flight to SFB. PIT was once-weekly (and had a shorter season) and CVG and RDU were twice-weekly, but none of them returned for Winter 2019-2020. SFB was removed from the schedule for last year just before the pandemic started. The rumor for PIT and CVG's cancellation was that the flights were so long, crews would be at risk of timing out in case of delay, but that wasn't the case for RDU which was canceled as well.

They have protocols for international flights but I believe those are for charters. I think they were interested in scheduled service though.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:38 pm

gunnerman wrote:
Caribbean nations frantically struggle to increase testing as US and UK demand returning holidaymakers present negative result.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9148787/Caribbean-nations-frantically-struggle-increase-testing.html



BGI and GND already required a 2nd test, which can also be used for re-entry into the US/UK/Canada. Hotels in SLU are putting in place free tests to meet CDC requirements, though I suspect not the UK. I think that most of the Caribbean saw Canada as shot for the season, and with frequent lock downs, also the UK. Its the USA requirement that will sting islands like Jamaica and ANU that don't have a 2nd test requirement. Given that it has long had fairly stringent test/quarantine requirements I do not get the impression that BGI expected much out of the US market this season.

Many Americans are focused on the US Caribbean, where lockdowns and testing requirements are more predictable. Even the long neglected STX is now getting new flights this season.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:49 pm

maverick4002 wrote:

The Jamaicans were mad and then didnt want to support a TT thing but instead chose to support Fly Jamaica which was ironically a Guyanese enterprise. I dont see losing out on Jamaica international market being THAT big of a deal. Was it ever a money maker for BW? Does the JM govt even contribute to the profits and losses made on the operation? Dont they have a % stake in BW?
.



Except that data on the Jamaica forum showed that BW did better on the JFK KIN than FlyJam. Jamaicans generally see Guyanese as less arrogant than they see T&T folks. That is a debate between the two Caribbean islanders, which might be why FJ snatched passengers from BW and not B6.

B6 has replaced JM as the preferred carrier. BW should have dropped their KIN base when FJ established one there. The fact that they didnt reflects a big TT error as neither the Jamaican public, nor the Jamaican gov't ever cared much about BW. That was just a ploy by a Jamaican PM who wanted Jamaicans to blame TT rather than his political party for the demise of that airline and TT fell into that trap. Rowley (current PM) verbally stated his opposition to that move, even though it was his party, the PNM which was responsible for that mess. The then TT PM was in an empire building craze and Jamaica knew it. Jamaica clearly didnt need BW to replace JM.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 398
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:04 pm

caribny wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:

The Jamaicans were mad and then didnt want to support a TT thing but instead chose to support Fly Jamaica which was ironically a Guyanese enterprise. I dont see losing out on Jamaica international market being THAT big of a deal. Was it ever a money maker for BW? Does the JM govt even contribute to the profits and losses made on the operation? Dont they have a % stake in BW?
.



Except that data on the Jamaica forum showed that BW did better on the JFK KIN than FlyJam. Jamaicans generally see Guyanese as less arrogant than they see T&T folks. That is a debate between the two Caribbean islanders, which might be why FJ snatched passengers from BW and not B6.

B6 has replaced JM as the preferred carrier. BW should have dropped their KIN base when FJ established one there. The fact that they didnt reflects a big TT error as neither the Jamaican public, nor the Jamaican gov't ever cared much about BW. That was just a ploy by a Jamaican PM who wanted Jamaicans to blame TT rather than his political party for the demise of that airline and TT fell into that trap. Rowley (current PM) verbally stated his opposition to that move, even though it was his party, the PNM which was responsible for that mess. The then TT PM was in an empire building craze and Jamaica knew it. Jamaica clearly didnt need BW to replace JM.


Please make it make sense. First you say BW did better than Fly Jam and then you say BW should have closed when Fly Jam started up? Which is it. Not sure about your other comment re a Jamaican ploy, and I am not going to disagree or agree. At the end it seems we have come to the same conclusion, BW should forget about the invetment it has in JM. Operate the routes that make sense (if any), and forget the hub.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Mon Jan 18, 2021 8:18 pm

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Caribbean nations frantically struggle to increase testing as US and UK demand returning holidaymakers present negative result.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9148787/Caribbean-nations-frantically-struggle-increase-testing.html



BGI and GND already required a 2nd test, which can also be used for re-entry into the US/UK/Canada. Hotels in SLU are putting in place free tests to meet CDC requirements, though I suspect not the UK. I think that most of the Caribbean saw Canada as shot for the season, and with frequent lock downs, also the UK. Its the USA requirement that will sting islands like Jamaica and ANU that don't have a 2nd test requirement. Given that it has long had fairly stringent test/quarantine requirements I do not get the impression that BGI expected much out of the US market this season.

Many Americans are focused on the US Caribbean, where lockdowns and testing requirements are more predictable. Even the long neglected STX is now getting new flights this season.

Agreed. Flight schedules from the US to BGI were already at barebones levels. The destinations that will suffer are places like ANU, UVF, MBJ and PUJ whose selling points were the relative lack of restrictions to enter. I suspect the strong VFR markets will be the least affected so SDQ, KIN and PAP for example should see less reductions than other destinations.
 
gunnerman
Posts: 1191
Joined: Fri May 19, 2017 7:55 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:03 pm

caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Caribbean nations frantically struggle to increase testing as US and UK demand returning holidaymakers present negative result.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9148787/Caribbean-nations-frantically-struggle-increase-testing.html



BGI and GND already required a 2nd test, which can also be used for re-entry into the US/UK/Canada. Hotels in SLU are putting in place free tests to meet CDC requirements, though I suspect not the UK. I think that most of the Caribbean saw Canada as shot for the season, and with frequent lock downs, also the UK. Its the USA requirement that will sting islands like Jamaica and ANU that don't have a 2nd test requirement. Given that it has long had fairly stringent test/quarantine requirements I do not get the impression that BGI expected much out of the US market this season.

Many Americans are focused on the US Caribbean, where lockdowns and testing requirements are more predictable. Even the long neglected STX is now getting new flights this season.

The US Caribbean territories, namely US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, have been able to vaccinate their citizens since December - unlike the rest of the region. This will greatly help them get back to normal living as soon as possible.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 926
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 3:59 pm

gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
Caribbean nations frantically struggle to increase testing as US and UK demand returning holidaymakers present negative result.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9148787/Caribbean-nations-frantically-struggle-increase-testing.html



BGI and GND already required a 2nd test, which can also be used for re-entry into the US/UK/Canada. Hotels in SLU are putting in place free tests to meet CDC requirements, though I suspect not the UK. I think that most of the Caribbean saw Canada as shot for the season, and with frequent lock downs, also the UK. Its the USA requirement that will sting islands like Jamaica and ANU that don't have a 2nd test requirement. Given that it has long had fairly stringent test/quarantine requirements I do not get the impression that BGI expected much out of the US market this season.

Many Americans are focused on the US Caribbean, where lockdowns and testing requirements are more predictable. Even the long neglected STX is now getting new flights this season.

The US Caribbean territories, namely US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, have been able to vaccinate their citizens since December - unlike the rest of the region. This will greatly help them get back to normal living as soon as possible.


I think the VFR will see a small impact, mostly for those travelling for quick business or 3 days stay may reconsider their trips from the US in the short term. Most VFR tend to stay a little longer so having an extra Covid test to the US may not be a big issue for them. I guess it will be the psyche of people in doing a test each time they have to travel.

Where the issue is in the tourist segments, where someone who wants to get a weekend getaway to MBJ, NAS, PUJ, ANU will have an issue unless the islands implement the rapid testing.
WS is already temporarily leaving BGI as they are seeing cancellations due to changing testing requirement. We may see more of this in the coming weeks if people decide right now is not wort the trouble of getting testing in a foreign nation, that tests will be difficult to come by
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/01/14/wes ... -schedule/
All ah we is one family
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 6:30 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:


BGI and GND already required a 2nd test, which can also be used for re-entry into the US/UK/Canada. Hotels in SLU are putting in place free tests to meet CDC requirements, though I suspect not the UK. I think that most of the Caribbean saw Canada as shot for the season, and with frequent lock downs, also the UK. Its the USA requirement that will sting islands like Jamaica and ANU that don't have a 2nd test requirement. Given that it has long had fairly stringent test/quarantine requirements I do not get the impression that BGI expected much out of the US market this season.

Many Americans are focused on the US Caribbean, where lockdowns and testing requirements are more predictable. Even the long neglected STX is now getting new flights this season.

The US Caribbean territories, namely US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, have been able to vaccinate their citizens since December - unlike the rest of the region. This will greatly help them get back to normal living as soon as possible.


I think the VFR will see a small impact, mostly for those travelling for quick business or 3 days stay may reconsider their trips from the US in the short term. Most VFR tend to stay a little longer so having an extra Covid test to the US may not be a big issue for them. I guess it will be the psyche of people in doing a test each time they have to travel.

Where the issue is in the tourist segments, where someone who wants to get a weekend getaway to MBJ, NAS, PUJ, ANU will have an issue unless the islands implement the rapid testing.
WS is already temporarily leaving BGI as they are seeing cancellations due to changing testing requirement. We may see more of this in the coming weeks if people decide right now is not wort the trouble of getting testing in a foreign nation, that tests will be difficult to come by
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/01/14/wes ... -schedule/

The other major issue apart from testing availability, cost and ease of access is the fact that people don’t want to risk being stuck in a foreign country for weeks longer than they planned because they contracted COVID while away. This would impact even the VFR market as people have to return for work (for those who don’t work remotely). I agree that VFR will be the least affected but it will hurt there too.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:23 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
caribny wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:

The Jamaicans were mad and then didnt want to support a TT thing but instead chose to support Fly Jamaica which was ironically a Guyanese enterprise. I dont see losing out on Jamaica international market being THAT big of a deal. Was it ever a money maker for BW? Does the JM govt even contribute to the profits and losses made on the operation? Dont they have a % stake in BW?
.



Except that data on the Jamaica forum showed that BW did better on the JFK KIN than FlyJam. Jamaicans generally see Guyanese as less arrogant than they see T&T folks. That is a debate between the two Caribbean islanders, which might be why FJ snatched passengers from BW and not B6.

B6 has replaced JM as the preferred carrier. BW should have dropped their KIN base when FJ established one there. The fact that they didnt reflects a big TT error as neither the Jamaican public, nor the Jamaican gov't ever cared much about BW. That was just a ploy by a Jamaican PM who wanted Jamaicans to blame TT rather than his political party for the demise of that airline and TT fell into that trap. Rowley (current PM) verbally stated his opposition to that move, even though it was his party, the PNM which was responsible for that mess. The then TT PM was in an empire building craze and Jamaica knew it. Jamaica clearly didnt need BW to replace JM.


Please make it make sense. First you say BW did better than Fly Jam and then you say BW should have closed when Fly Jam started up? Which is it. Not sure about your other comment re a Jamaican ploy, and I am not going to disagree or agree. At the end it seems we have come to the same conclusion, BW should forget about the invetment it has in JM. Operate the routes that make sense (if any), and forget the hub.


The very fact that the govt of Jamaica allowed a LOCAL competitor to enter the KIN JFK market showed that they lacked commitment to BW, so BW should have used that as an excuse to exit. It is quite clear that moving JM to BW was a political exercise to avoid the then Jamaican govt having to explain why hundreds of Jamaicans were going to lose their jobs. Once they tossed the responsibility to T&T they then refused to ensure that this BW venture be a success. Thanks to this behavior instead of having one struggling "local" carrier, BW, they ended up with 2.

Once Jamaica doubled crossed BW by allowing a "revitalized" Air Jamaica resurface, in the form of Fly Jamaica, T&T should have pulled out. In the end while BW and FJ bled each other to death B6 ran away with the market.
 
windian425
Posts: 258
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:22 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:30 pm

More drama in the Eastern Caribbean
Guadeloupe , January 19, 2021
As a result of even more restrictive measures between Paris and its home base in the French West Indies, as well as increased protocol restrictions in the Caribbean islands because of the Covid pandemic, Air Antilles has today announced temporary suspension of all air services until further notice.
The cessation of flights will take effect from Tuesday, Jan 19th, 2021 and will directly impact its current service between Barbados, St Lucia and Dominica.
The company regrets the decision and would like to thank its loyal passengers and trade partners.
For any information, please contact our customer service via our website www.airantilles.com
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:36 pm

caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
caribny wrote:


BGI and GND already required a 2nd test, which can also be used for re-entry into the US/UK/Canada. Hotels in SLU are putting in place free tests to meet CDC requirements, though I suspect not the UK. I think that most of the Caribbean saw Canada as shot for the season, and with frequent lock downs, also the UK. Its the USA requirement that will sting islands like Jamaica and ANU that don't have a 2nd test requirement. Given that it has long had fairly stringent test/quarantine requirements I do not get the impression that BGI expected much out of the US market this season.

Many Americans are focused on the US Caribbean, where lockdowns and testing requirements are more predictable. Even the long neglected STX is now getting new flights this season.

The US Caribbean territories, namely US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, have been able to vaccinate their citizens since December - unlike the rest of the region. This will greatly help them get back to normal living as soon as possible.


I think the VFR will see a small impact, mostly for those travelling for quick business or 3 days stay may reconsider their trips from the US in the short term. Most VFR tend to stay a little longer so having an extra Covid test to the US may not be a big issue for them. I guess it will be the psyche of people in doing a test each time they have to travel.

Where the issue is in the tourist segments, where someone who wants to get a weekend getaway to MBJ, NAS, PUJ, ANU will have an issue unless the islands implement the rapid testing.
WS is already temporarily leaving BGI as they are seeing cancellations due to changing testing requirement. We may see more of this in the coming weeks if people decide right now is not wort the trouble of getting testing in a foreign nation, that tests will be difficult to come by
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/01/14/wes ... -schedule/



Not sure how well the VFR markets are doing to the English speaking Caribbean, especially. The Xmas frequencies werent that good, even to KIN. Its the DR/PR VFR markets that seem unimpacted. Someone must do a cultural analysis of the English vs, Spanish Caribbean with regards to Covid. I suspect the higher infection rates in the latter coincide with the bigger drop of travel into KIN and BGI out of NY vs DR. JFK GEO cannot be that good either, giving the "free" travel that AA is offering (less than $400, inclusive of taxes).
 
LimaFoxTango
Posts: 1003
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:33 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 7:58 pm

windian425 wrote:
More drama in the Eastern Caribbean
Guadeloupe , January 19, 2021
As a result of even more restrictive measures between Paris and its home base in the French West Indies, as well as increased protocol restrictions in the Caribbean islands because of the Covid pandemic, Air Antilles has today announced temporary suspension of all air services until further notice.
The cessation of flights will take effect from Tuesday, Jan 19th, 2021 and will directly impact its current service between Barbados, St Lucia and Dominica.
The company regrets the decision and would like to thank its loyal passengers and trade partners.
For any information, please contact our customer service via our website http://www.airantilles.com


It is reasons like this that shows the importance of LI. I hope LI can take the albeit small advantage of this.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
caribbean484
Posts: 926
Joined: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:57 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:03 pm

caribny wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The US Caribbean territories, namely US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, have been able to vaccinate their citizens since December - unlike the rest of the region. This will greatly help them get back to normal living as soon as possible.


I think the VFR will see a small impact, mostly for those travelling for quick business or 3 days stay may reconsider their trips from the US in the short term. Most VFR tend to stay a little longer so having an extra Covid test to the US may not be a big issue for them. I guess it will be the psyche of people in doing a test each time they have to travel.

Where the issue is in the tourist segments, where someone who wants to get a weekend getaway to MBJ, NAS, PUJ, ANU will have an issue unless the islands implement the rapid testing.
WS is already temporarily leaving BGI as they are seeing cancellations due to changing testing requirement. We may see more of this in the coming weeks if people decide right now is not wort the trouble of getting testing in a foreign nation, that tests will be difficult to come by
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/01/14/wes ... -schedule/



Not sure how well the VFR markets are doing to the English speaking Caribbean, especially. The Xmas frequencies werent that good, even to KIN. Its the DR/PR VFR markets that seem unimpacted. Someone must do a cultural analysis of the English vs, Spanish Caribbean with regards to Covid. I suspect the higher infection rates in the latter coincide with the bigger drop of travel into KIN and BGI out of NY vs DR. JFK GEO cannot be that good either, giving the "free" travel that AA is offering (less than $400, inclusive of taxes).


I forgot about the need to quarantine requirements also if found to be positive on returning to the US, that is not something anyone would want to do in a foreign country.
It remains to be seen how much longer this is going to last, but we are already seeing airlines pulling down their March schedule, and April is not to far behind to see what the booking trends are looking like.

windian425 wrote:
More drama in the Eastern Caribbean
Guadeloupe , January 19, 2021
As a result of even more restrictive measures between Paris and its home base in the French West Indies, as well as increased protocol restrictions in the Caribbean islands because of the Covid pandemic, Air Antilles has today announced temporary suspension of all air services until further notice.
The cessation of flights will take effect from Tuesday, Jan 19th, 2021 and will directly impact its current service between Barbados, St Lucia and Dominica.
The company regrets the decision and would like to thank its loyal passengers and trade partners.
For any information, please contact our customer service via our website http://www.airantilles.com


Not good at all.
All ah we is one family
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 8:13 pm

caribny wrote:
caribbean484 wrote:
gunnerman wrote:
The US Caribbean territories, namely US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, have been able to vaccinate their citizens since December - unlike the rest of the region. This will greatly help them get back to normal living as soon as possible.


I think the VFR will see a small impact, mostly for those travelling for quick business or 3 days stay may reconsider their trips from the US in the short term. Most VFR tend to stay a little longer so having an extra Covid test to the US may not be a big issue for them. I guess it will be the psyche of people in doing a test each time they have to travel.

Where the issue is in the tourist segments, where someone who wants to get a weekend getaway to MBJ, NAS, PUJ, ANU will have an issue unless the islands implement the rapid testing.
WS is already temporarily leaving BGI as they are seeing cancellations due to changing testing requirement. We may see more of this in the coming weeks if people decide right now is not wort the trouble of getting testing in a foreign nation, that tests will be difficult to come by
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/01/14/wes ... -schedule/



Not sure how well the VFR markets are doing to the English speaking Caribbean, especially. The Xmas frequencies werent that good, even to KIN. Its the DR/PR VFR markets that seem unimpacted. Someone must do a cultural analysis of the English vs, Spanish Caribbean with regards to Covid. I suspect the higher infection rates in the latter coincide with the bigger drop of travel into KIN and BGI out of NY vs DR. JFK GEO cannot be that good either, giving the "free" travel that AA is offering (less than $400, inclusive of taxes).

While some of it may be cultural, it’s also due in large part to the fact that the English speaking islands have been a lot more restrictive of the VFR market. ANU, UVF and Jamaica e.g. have one set of rules for returning nationals (quarantines, tracking, etc.) and another set for tourists that make VFR travel less attractive. The DR has the same rules for all arriving passengers and are probably the most lax in the Caribbean (not even requiring a negative test for entry). Puerto Rico also has the same rules for everyone (negative test).
 
SELMER40
Posts: 251
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:52 pm

LimaFoxTango wrote:
windian425 wrote:
More drama in the Eastern Caribbean
Guadeloupe , January 19, 2021
As a result of even more restrictive measures between Paris and its home base in the French West Indies, as well as increased protocol restrictions in the Caribbean islands because of the Covid pandemic, Air Antilles has today announced temporary suspension of all air services until further notice.
The cessation of flights will take effect from Tuesday, Jan 19th, 2021 and will directly impact its current service between Barbados, St Lucia and Dominica.
The company regrets the decision and would like to thank its loyal passengers and trade partners.
For any information, please contact our customer service via our website http://www.airantilles.com


It is reasons like this that shows the importance of LI. I hope LI can take the albeit small advantage of this.

LIAT was back in St.Maarten this past weekend.
Teaching this old dog a new trick
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:45 pm

SELMER40 wrote:
LimaFoxTango wrote:
windian425 wrote:
More drama in the Eastern Caribbean
Guadeloupe , January 19, 2021
As a result of even more restrictive measures between Paris and its home base in the French West Indies, as well as increased protocol restrictions in the Caribbean islands because of the Covid pandemic, Air Antilles has today announced temporary suspension of all air services until further notice.
The cessation of flights will take effect from Tuesday, Jan 19th, 2021 and will directly impact its current service between Barbados, St Lucia and Dominica.
The company regrets the decision and would like to thank its loyal passengers and trade partners.
For any information, please contact our customer service via our website http://www.airantilles.com


It is reasons like this that shows the importance of LI. I hope LI can take the albeit small advantage of this.

LIAT was back in St.Maarten this past weekend.



As expected LI is focusing on connecting the northern part of its network with its southern end. It is leaving the BGI hub bloodbath for JY and BW to fight it out. 3S is temporarily out of their way. I wonder if they will be back.
 
windian425
Posts: 258
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:22 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 20, 2021 9:31 pm

LIAT can have the northern Caribbean which is a smaller market than the southern Caribbean.
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1293
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:01 pm

windian425 wrote:
LIAT can have the northern Caribbean which is a smaller market than the southern Caribbean.

Also LI has no choice but to stick to the Northern Caribbean. They are down to two planes and barebones staffing levels. Unless there has been a change recently, LI isn’t even operating a full 7 day a week schedule. They simply don’t have the capacity currently to serve BGI and the rest of the southern Caribbean as they did before, even if they wanted. It’s very telling for example that they have not returned to OGL. I expect the same for POS whenever it reopens.
 
caribny
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2019 1:47 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:13 am

Brickell305 wrote:
windian425 wrote:
LIAT can have the northern Caribbean which is a smaller market than the southern Caribbean.

Also LI has no choice but to stick to the Northern Caribbean. They are down to two planes and barebones staffing levels. Unless there has been a change recently, LI isn’t even operating a full 7 day a week schedule. They simply don’t have the capacity currently to serve BGI and the rest of the southern Caribbean as they did before, even if they wanted. It’s very telling for example that they have not returned to OGL. I expect the same for POS whenever it reopens.



The BGI hub is struggling now. JY is running maybe 2-3 flights daily, and BW 10w, including OGL. This is hardly a lucrative market at this time. Especially now that US visa related travel is down to virtually zero. Put it this way JY and BW are flighting each other, glad that 3S is off the market temporarily. LI has their market to themselves.

LI has plans to get back to OGL. They are waiting permission to do so. There are relatively large Guyanese communities in the northeast Caribbean, especially ANU. Guyanese were actually the largest Caribbean migrant population in the BVI in the 2010 census, accounting for over 7% of the population. I can easily see them doing ANU POS GEO once POS reopens, with connections to EIS.

BW and JY are also down to 2 plane operations out of BGI so no different to LI. LI does however have higher utilization of their planes, given the longer sector lengths. At this point I doubt that any of these airlines are doing well, and I would watch JY to see how long they last in BGI, as they don't have any state support, so are ill prepared to service money losing routes, especially so far away from their main base.
 
baje427
Posts: 880
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Caribbean Aviation Thread - 2021

Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:58 am

The bigger issue right now to be honest is how many Caribbean countries can survive in this environment. Even with the vaccine most islands are going to have to survive off 10% of the traffic they are accustomed to. At best it looks like things should start normalising by summer 2022. I don't see JY making it through the lean summer period especially as carnival season in the region is likely cancelled again this year.
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