GUYAIR707 wrote:

Flew AA to MIA yesterday. Just from observation, so not scientific, there were about 20% Spanish speaking pax and another 20% white expats. The rest were Guyanese. It was a full flight.

Yes GEO is definitely getting more integrated into Latin America. Wonder how many were Cubans enjoying their US visas.

https://www.cnc3.co.tt/letter-to-union- ... oing-home/

Between 95-115 CAL pilots to be sent home. Seems very drastic. Why keep these staff all through the pandemic and now that the borders are opening let them go? Especially because a year ago they were hiring pilots like crazy. I understand the fleet is reducing, but to send almost 50% of your pilot workforce home, says to me that it is going to be more of a reduction in aircraft numbers than many people thought.

Mind boggling.

fowlr29 wrote:

https://www.cnc3.co.tt/letter-to-union-reveals-almost-half-of-cals-pilots-going-home/

Between 95-115 CAL pilots to be sent home. Seems very drastic. Why keep these staff all through the pandemic and now that the borders are opening let them go? Especially because a year ago they were hiring pilots like crazy. I understand the fleet is reducing, but to send almost 50% of your pilot workforce home, says to me that it is going to be more of a reduction in aircraft numbers than many people thought.

Mind boggling.

Not 100% sure but I do believe they have been on furlough up to this point. This is just moving them from furlough to being permanently let go. That said, you are correct. This is a drastic reduction. I wonder what will remain. POS-KIN milk runs, POS-JFK, POS-MIA, POS-GEO-JFK and the larger E. Caribbean ATR routes are probably the most safe with lower frequencies likely. YYZ once it reopens, as well. I wouldn’t bet on anything touching KIN/MBJ other than the milk runs to POS.

The Max order is very likely to be reduced in size, probably focusing on JFK and YYZ now, from POS and GEO.
I believe they own the ATR fleet (or at least most of it), they will keep them to feed POS and maybe to maintain some presence in BGI.

Talking about BGI, what's the latest with LIAT?
Their IATA code has been assigned to a european start-up, doesn't look good: https://www.planespotters.net/airline/ETF-Airways?refresh=1

fowlr29 wrote:

https://www.cnc3.co.tt/letter-to-union-reveals-almost-half-of-cals-pilots-going-home/

Between 95-115 CAL pilots to be sent home. Seems very drastic. Why keep these staff all through the pandemic and now that the borders are opening let them go? Especially because a year ago they were hiring pilots like crazy. I understand the fleet is reducing, but to send almost 50% of your pilot workforce home, says to me that it is going to be more of a reduction in aircraft numbers than many people thought.

Mind boggling.

Because the gov't of T&T said "no more money". Its outside of their control.

A330Inter wrote:

The Max order is very likely to be reduced in size, probably focusing on JFK and YYZ now, from POS and GEO.
I believe they own the ATR fleet (or at least most of it), they will keep them to feed POS and maybe to maintain some presence in BGI.

Talking about BGI, what's the latest with LIAT?
Their IATA code has been assigned to a european start-up, doesn't look good: https://www.planespotters.net/airline/ETF-Airways?refresh=1

BW is now a 3rd string carrier on the JFK GEO route. With lower yields, due to higher competition, and reduced loads this route isnt going to be the strong contributor to BWs profits that it once was. BWs future now depends on POS and how quickly it recovers, how quickly B6 re-enters (we know that AA will) and what the yields will be. The GEO market isn't going to deliver as it once did. Maybe AA and BW will stay in their separate corners in the MIA POS and not undercut each other with a fare war.

Maybe 3 737s and 1 ATR are released. 2 were already released so that means a reduction of its 737-800 fleet to around 7. Maybe 2 Maxes might come in for the JFK route, which is their best in volume, even if not in yield. MIA POS will definitely be back, though not sure of the need for the GEO add on, given that AA now owns the MIA GEO market. With the FLL route gone and AA probably not putting too much capacity into POS I do not think that they will need to fill the plane with GEO bound passengers.

Clearly the pre Covid Eastern Caribbean expansion is gone, as well as the BGI hub. With OGL becoming a factor that will absorb some ATRs. Not sure if CUR will be back with an ATR as there have been some flights on that route during the border closure.

Something to look at will be the degree to which BW will service PY routes on some sort of joint code basis. PY seems to be 2 steps away from being another LIAT and Suriname cannot help them. Very few of their flights are operating. Also their cargo routes are working well for them and KIN MIA has been in demand by Jamaican shippers as their rates are cheaper. I think that their cargo operations actually grew during the pandemic.

The UK government will from 0400 on 30 June move the following Caribbean countries from its amber list to its green list.
Anguila
Antigua and Barbuda
Barbados
British Virgin Islands
Cayman Islands
Dominica
Grenada
Montserrat
Turks and Caicos Islands

It means that from 30 June holidaymakers will be able to return from these countries without being forced into quarantine for 10 days when arriving back in the UK. The Government will also allow double-jabbed Britons to holiday in amber list countries later this summer without having to quarantine on their return.

However popular destination Dominican Republic will be moved from the amber list to the red list. Other popular destinations such as Cuba, Jamaica and St Lucia remain on the amber list, and Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago remain on the red list.

No shocker with the CAL situation it's going to take a while for things in the region to bounce back if they ever do. With these new variants things are even more unpredictable.

baje427 wrote:

No shocker with the CAL situation it's going to take a while for things in the region to bounce back if they ever do. With these new variants things are even more unpredictable.

The Eastern Caribbean will be aligned differently. The poor man of the Eastern Caribbean, Guyana, now becomes the rich one. Richer places like ANU and BGI will see severe stress as they are very indebted, unable to access global markets, and the IMF will not be kind to them as they have high per capita incomes. SKB might be joining that pack too. It might be easier for the Windward Islands to diversify, and I suspect with their simpler lifestyles they might be more resilient, and at least will be less likely to starve. It might be ironic to see Bajans trying to work in Guyana illegally.

It becomes a huge debate as to how this impacts intra regional travel. Gaston is making noises about "reducing airfares", I guess because his LIAT planes are sloshing around empty. The time for that has long gone as I think that many have lost the appetite for such travel outside of what is necessary (VFR/migrant and health) or events (festivals, carnivals and cricket). The days of running over to the island just over the horizon to spend a spontaneous weekend with friends no longer exists. Plus I do not think that the islands care about intra regional travel and will want to squeeze every tax dollar that they can grab. Sorry for the small properties which relied on this market.

CALs big problem is that it can no longer afford the luxury of supporting its KIN base, and has lost its GEO cash cow. But the VFR markets into T&T will revive once this current pandemic spread reduced. Outbound travel clearly less so.

Regional travel is in the dumps at the moment. Understandably so too. Even with travel bubbles in place for many islands within CARICOM, there really is not much reason to travel. There are next to no events taking place whether big or small. Even a regular night out at a bar isn’t feasible as many places still have curfews in effect. The situation is ever shifting. Some places seem to have things under control and appear ready to reopen and then things shift rapidly e.g. Barbados/Antigua in December or Anguilla/Saint Kitts now. It’s easy to see why there is very little incentive to travel and I haven’t even hit on the economic impact of the pandemic and how that will factor in as well.

Anecdotally, people who are able to travel, appear to be visiting Florida as it’s been established that things are “back to normal” here. Malls are open, curfews are non-existent, Caribbean events are happening here. If you’re vaccinated and have the means to travel, Miami is a lot more attractive right now than Kingston or Bridgetown.

Brickell305 wrote:

Anecdotally, people who are able to travel, appear to be visiting Florida as it’s been established that things are “back to normal” here. Malls are open, curfews are non-existent, Caribbean events are happening here. If you’re vaccinated and have the means to travel, Miami is a lot more attractive right now than Kingston or Bridgetown.

Additionally, for the past few weeks vaccinations in the USA have been available to non citizens and residents, and their time between doses is not the 6 to 8 weeks implemented by the UK, WHO and PAHO, so vaccine tourism is in full swing.
PS: No AZ is available in the USA, additional benefit for those concerned due to the EU / UK spat.

More 737s to go.
All ATRs staying.

TriniA340 wrote:

More 737s to go.
All ATRs staying.

What do you mean more? They had 13 737s before COVID right? What is the anticipated number post COVID?

According to airfleets, they have 9 active plus 1 parked.

Apat from that 9Y-JMD was returned to leaser last year.

bennett123 wrote:

Apat from that 9Y-JMD was returned to leaser last year.

9Y-SXM was also returned and is now registered as B-220U with Joy Air.

bennett123 wrote:

According to airfleets, they have 9 active plus 1 parked.

This is correct, but still ten in the fleet currently. They will stabilise the fleet around 8 737 frames.

T&T borders to officially reopen on 17th July. We should soon see what routes are maintained and which ones get cut. Hope we don't see an exit from OGL and the mini base in BGI with the ATR's. KIN will likely get the most of the cuts excluding the milk run from POS. Wonder if the BW153/154 KIN-BGI-JFK-BGI-KIN will also end.

windian425 wrote:

T&T borders to officially reopen on 17th July. We should soon see what routes are maintained and which ones get cut. Hope we don't see an exit from OGL and the mini base in BGI with the ATR's. KIN will likely get the most of the cuts excluding the milk run from POS. Wonder if the BW153/154 KIN-BGI-JFK-BGI-KIN will also end.

Well, if they are keeping all the ATRs, then the BGI base may very well survive. There is going to be less demand to/from Trinidad to the rest of the region for the foreseeable future. 7 ATRs is more than they've usually had. They likely won't even need the 5 they've usually had based in POS on a regular basis. With 7, they will definitely need places to fly them. Unless they base some at KIN (which I doubt) or decide to try to be a LI replacement all up and down the E. Caribbean (which I also doubt), they may as well keep the BGI base.

If the 737s are what they are cutting back on then it'll be North American routes and Western Caribbean that will see the brunt of the cutbacks. My guess is destinations like NAS, GCM, MCO, FLL, MBJ that get cut. They most likely return to core routes, at lower frequency for now with a gradual return to normal service.

Final schedule for July until end of this summer will be interesting to say the least. How long before the first MAX arrives?

I just read the planned entry requirements for Trinidad & Tobago. Vaccinated citizens and legal residents can enter with a PCR test taken within 72 hours of entry. They will not have to quarantine. Citizens/residents who are unvaccinated will need the test and have to quarantine at a state-sanctioned facility for 14 days. Unvaccinated non-citizens will not be allowed entry. No word yet on vaccinated non-citizens. I expect traffic to/from POS/TAB to remain fairly depressed for the short to medium term as people there get vaccinated and members of the diaspora get vaccinated as well. Also, vaccinated means two weeks after receiving your final dose.

Brickell305 wrote:

windian425 wrote:

T&T borders to officially reopen on 17th July. We should soon see what routes are maintained and which ones get cut. Hope we don't see an exit from OGL and the mini base in BGI with the ATR's. KIN will likely get the most of the cuts excluding the milk run from POS. Wonder if the BW153/154 KIN-BGI-JFK-BGI-KIN will also end.

Well, if they are keeping all the ATRs, then the BGI base may very well survive. There is going to be less demand to/from Trinidad to the rest of the region for the foreseeable future. 7 ATRs is more than they've usually had. They likely won't even need the 5 they've usually had based in POS on a regular basis. With 7, they will definitely need places to fly them. Unless they base some at KIN (which I doubt) or decide to try to be a LI replacement all up and down the E. Caribbean (which I also doubt), they may as well keep the BGI base.

If the 737s are what they are cutting back on then it'll be North American routes and Western Caribbean that will see the brunt of the cutbacks. My guess is destinations like NAS, GCM, MCO, FLL, MBJ that get cut. They most likely return to core routes, at lower frequency for now with a gradual return to normal service.

The ATRs will see work at OGL unless BW is crazy. Guyana Trinidad travel will strengthen with the border reopen. A daily POS OGL BGI is a routing I can see. The fact that when BW resumed its KIN service it did MIA KIN instead of FLL KIN showed that FLL is gone. If BW wasnt going to do FLL KIN the smaller FLL POS is unlikely, at least in the near term. Of course KIN MIA was gone in a few weeks as many here predicted. I can see a POS JFK KIN route working to enable it to serve that route while down scaling its KIN base. KIN is done and no ATRs will be based there. Why when Inter Caribbean is there with jets? KX owns GCM KIN.

B6 is back at daily on the JFK BGI with A321 service. Given lower loads I see no space or rationale for BW on this route as Bajans do not know it, except to POS and KIN. The last time BWIA was on that route it was a disaster. I see no reason for BW to base an ATR at BGI to run 2x weekly flights. The only strong BGI route is to OGL and I suspect that it will remain OGL based, or originate in POS. I can see ATR flights POS BGI, maybe 2x daily and a daily flight POS, GND, SVD, SLU. . I see no reason to keep DOM.

POS might recover faster (partially) than some suspect as they must be having real cabin fever. Its a large market so there is a bigger pool of potential passengers to draw on. Maybe BGI and GND and SLU given that all they have had for a year + was TAB, Maybe daily POS KIN with 3x via BGI, weekly via ANU, and the same SXM, and 2x POS KIN NAS. There is as much travel between KIN and NAS as there is to BGI. No other carrier serves this route at the present time.

When the Eastern Caribbean ends its pandemic phase and lockdowns and quarantines end and events resume them maybe there might be scope for a BGI base for some carrier, most likely JY which has the small planes that can best service those routes. Remember that POS is a large VFR market for GND and SVD (both directions). LI will not be back to POS or OGL except (maybe) to run a low frequency flight to ANU with connections to SXM and EIS where large Guyanese communities exist (also SKB).

Brickell305 wrote:

I just read the planned entry requirements for Trinidad & Tobago. Vaccinated citizens and legal residents can enter with a PCR test taken within 72 hours of entry. They will not have to quarantine. Citizens/residents who are unvaccinated will need the test and have to quarantine at a state-sanctioned facility for 14 days. Unvaccinated non-citizens will not be allowed entry. No word yet on vaccinated non-citizens. I expect traffic to/from POS/TAB to remain fairly depressed for the short to medium term as people there get vaccinated and members of the diaspora get vaccinated as well. Also, vaccinated means two weeks after receiving your final dose.

So VFR/business from North America. Vincies and Grenadians have low vaccination rates.

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

I just read the planned entry requirements for Trinidad & Tobago. Vaccinated citizens and legal residents can enter with a PCR test taken within 72 hours of entry. They will not have to quarantine. Citizens/residents who are unvaccinated will need the test and have to quarantine at a state-sanctioned facility for 14 days. Unvaccinated non-citizens will not be allowed entry. No word yet on vaccinated non-citizens. I expect traffic to/from POS/TAB to remain fairly depressed for the short to medium term as people there get vaccinated and members of the diaspora get vaccinated as well. Also, vaccinated means two weeks after receiving your final dose.

So VFR/business from North America. Vincies and Grenadians have low vaccination rates.

That's my guess as well. Along with British tourists to TAB. Reading the article below, vaccinated non-nationals are also free to enter. Other articles omitted that group.

https://newsday.co.tt/2021/06/26/citize ... n-july-17/

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

windian425 wrote:

T&T borders to officially reopen on 17th July. We should soon see what routes are maintained and which ones get cut. Hope we don't see an exit from OGL and the mini base in BGI with the ATR's. KIN will likely get the most of the cuts excluding the milk run from POS. Wonder if the BW153/154 KIN-BGI-JFK-BGI-KIN will also end.

Well, if they are keeping all the ATRs, then the BGI base may very well survive. There is going to be less demand to/from Trinidad to the rest of the region for the foreseeable future. 7 ATRs is more than they've usually had. They likely won't even need the 5 they've usually had based in POS on a regular basis. With 7, they will definitely need places to fly them. Unless they base some at KIN (which I doubt) or decide to try to be a LI replacement all up and down the E. Caribbean (which I also doubt), they may as well keep the BGI base.

If the 737s are what they are cutting back on then it'll be North American routes and Western Caribbean that will see the brunt of the cutbacks. My guess is destinations like NAS, GCM, MCO, FLL, MBJ that get cut. They most likely return to core routes, at lower frequency for now with a gradual return to normal service.

The ATRs will see work at OGL unless BW is crazy. Guyana Trinidad travel will strengthen with the border reopen. A daily POS OGL BGI is a routing I can see. The fact that when BW resumed its KIN service it did MIA KIN instead of FLL KIN showed that FLL is gone. If BW wasnt going to do FLL KIN the smaller FLL POS is unlikely, at least in the near term. Of course KIN MIA was gone in a few weeks as many here predicted. I can see a POS JFK KIN route working to enable it to serve that route while down scaling its KIN base. KIN is done and no ATRs will be based there. Why when Inter Caribbean is there with jets? KX owns GCM KIN.

B6 is back at daily on the JFK BGI with A321 service. Given lower loads I see no space or rationale for BW on this route as Bajans do not know it, except to POS and KIN. The last time BWIA was on that route it was a disaster. I see no reason for BW to base an ATR at BGI to run 2x weekly flights. The only strong BGI route is to OGL and I suspect that it will remain OGL based, or originate in POS. I can see ATR flights POS BGI, maybe 2x daily and a daily flight POS, GND, SVD, SLU. . I see no reason to keep DOM.

POS might recover faster (partially) than some suspect as they must be having real cabin fever. Its a large market so there is a bigger pool of potential passengers to draw on. Maybe BGI and GND and SLU given that all they have had for a year + was TAB, Maybe daily POS KIN with 3x via BGI, weekly via ANU, and the same SXM, and 2x POS KIN NAS. There is as much travel between KIN and NAS as there is to BGI. No other carrier serves this route at the present time.

When the Eastern Caribbean ends its pandemic phase and lockdowns and quarantines end and events resume them maybe there might be scope for a BGI base for some carrier, most likely JY which has the small planes that can best service those routes. Remember that POS is a large VFR market for GND and SVD (both directions). LI will not be back to POS or OGL except (maybe) to run a low frequency flight to ANU with connections to SXM and EIS where large Guyanese communities exist (also SKB).

The issue is the end of the pandemic phase could be years.

Here's an update on the scheduled flights from the UK to T & T from my post two weeks ago.

30 Aug BA LGW-ANU-POS weekly
17 Oct BA LGW-UVF-POS 4x weekly
01 Nov BA LGW-UVF-POS 5x weekly
03 Sep BA LGW-ANU-TAB weekly
18 Oct BA LGW-ANU-TAB 2x weekly

07 Oct VS LHR-BGI-TAB weekly

BTW, this won't be the first time that VS plans to extend flights from BGI this year as LHR-BGI-GND is scheduled to commence 2x weekly on 16 July.

baje427 wrote:

The issue is the end of the pandemic phase could be years.

Yes I am aware that the post pandemic recovery will be longer but T&T has a fairly sizeable upper middle class and VFR travel is often nondiscretionary so I expect POS to recover faster than BGI. Also business travel into POS/GEO will be less of the face to face type than one will get into BGI. More technicians and fewer marketing/sales.

Prime Minister Gaston Browne has made good on his promise to lead from the front on the issue of reduction in high airport taxes.

Yesterday he announced that from June 28 taxes on airline tickets for travel within CARICOM will be reduced by 50 percent.

https://antiguanewsroom.com/antigua-and ... 0-percent/

Takes a crisis to do what should have been done long ago. We will see who joins him. Like he says no one is traveling now anyway so little reveneue to lose. Good timing as well with T&T opening. Not sure about the travel bubble though.

St. Lucia spotters: QF6079 on the way to UVF from BNE. Less than 4 hours of flight time remaining at the time of writing this post. Estimated arrival 3:50 pm UVF time.

https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA6079/2835fc4e

Ongoing thread in the Travel Polls & Preferences forum:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1462195

phatfarmlines wrote:

St. Lucia spotters: QF6079 on the way to UVF from BNE. Less than 4 hours of flight time remaining at the time of writing this post. Estimated arrival 3:50 pm UVF time.

https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA6079/2835fc4e

Ongoing thread in the Travel Polls & Preferences forum:

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1462195

wonder whats that all about.

caribny wrote:

Takes a crisis to do what should have been done long ago. We will see who joins him. Like he says no one is traveling now anyway so little reveneue to lose. Good timing as well with T&T opening. Not sure about the travel bubble though.

I take it the ones that have airlines based in their respective country may follow suit so POS and BGI possibly. The others, I highly doubt it as they have no real incentive to enact that.

Brickell305 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Takes a crisis to do what should have been done long ago. We will see who joins him. Like he says no one is traveling now anyway so little reveneue to lose. Good timing as well with T&T opening. Not sure about the travel bubble though.

I take it the ones that have airlines based in their respective country may follow suit so POS and BGI possibly. The others, I highly doubt it as they have no real incentive to enact that.

Empty hotel rooms? Otherwise they need to stop bawling about how airfares has destroyed intra regional travel. Not sure why BGI should be any more vested in this than SLU or especially GND which do source travelers from within the region.

Zidane wrote:

YQBexYHZBGM wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

If they can get flights from MIA at the current airport, it kinda makes the new airport project seem like a waste. DOM doesn't need a lot of airlift and is unlikely to ever attract much even with an international airport.

Agreed. I'm not sure DOM really needs nonstop flights to the UK or other European destinations, or even US destinations further afield than MIA, but MIA is a no-brainer and I'm sure it will be a success. Sure, foreign inbound traffic will still be needed to ensure profitable loads, but I'm sure Dominicans will welcome the opportunities for VFR and, perhaps more importantly, retail purchases to bring home.

Such a flight would likely be upped to an A319 soon enough, people in that part of the world don't pack lightly. The LAA units are very capable.

My sincere thought that any aircraft, be it and Envoy E175 or LAA A319 will fly out of DOM with some manner of load restrictions. A 5700ft runway in the hot/humid climates of the Caribbean are not conducive to excellent take off performance at max gross. Keep in mind, SXM’s runway is nearly an additional 2000ft longer and short field performance takeoffs and weight restrictions are pretty typical, albeit for longer haul aircraft to Europe.

IMHO DOM does not need a a large jet airport when airlines aren’t asking and foreign investors aren’t willing to pay for one. With the $1 Billion ECD price tag… it sound like a financially ruinous, self-aggrandizing endeavor for the convenience of the handful of tourists that will come via government-subsidized flights. They have learned nothing from St. Vincent. The DOM government should stick to making DOM a fully utilized airport first followed by incremental expansion, and certification of better RNAV approaches and airport safety facilities.

flybyguy wrote:

My sincere thought that any aircraft, be it and Envoy E175 or LAA A319 will fly out of DOM with some manner of load restrictions. A 5700ft runway in the hot/humid climates of the Caribbean are not conducive to excellent take off performance at max gross. Keep in mind, SXM’s runway is nearly an additional 2000ft longer and short field performance takeoffs and weight restrictions are pretty typical, albeit for longer haul aircraft to Europe.

The main reason for restrictions at SXM is the mountain directly in front of the runway. Aircraft taking off have to make a sharp right turn as soon as they lift off. If the mountain was not there it would be an entirely different ball game

With POS reopening and assuming the Government still limits the flights to manage the influx of the virus, I would have recommended POS-BGI double daily, morning and evening, allowing onward connections, and then basing an ATR fleet in BGI to link- OGL, DOM, GND, SVD, SLU, ANU.
Since I don't think Caribbean Airlines nor the GORTT to be creative, I'm going with, non-stop ATR flights (weekly)
POS-CUR x1
POS-BGI x4
POS-SLU x3
POS-GND x3
POS-SVD x1
For the reduced 737 fleet:
POS-JFK x7
POS-MIA x3
POS-YYZ x2
POS-KIN (combination of non-stop and milk run) x4

That's my guess. Schedule should be out soon I understand.

Cheers,
AA1818

aa1818 wrote:

With POS reopening and assuming the Government still limits the flights to manage the influx of the virus, I would have recommended POS-BGI double daily, morning and evening, allowing onward connections, and then basing an ATR fleet in BGI to link- OGL, DOM, GND, SVD, SLU, ANU.
Since I don't think Caribbean Airlines nor the GORTT to be creative, I'm going with, non-stop ATR flights (weekly)
POS-CUR x1
POS-BGI x4
POS-SLU x3
POS-GND x3
POS-SVD x1
For the reduced 737 fleet:
POS-JFK x7
POS-MIA x3
POS-YYZ x2
POS-KIN (combination of non-stop and milk run) x4

That's my guess. Schedule should be out soon I understand.

Cheers,
AA1818

I would love to see Caribbean Airlines back in Curacao and I think the ATR72 might make more sense now for Curacao, unless there is a lot of cargo too. If more cargo space is needed, the 737 of course is better. I don't know how cargo heavy the POS-CUR market is(?)

A388

flybyguy wrote:

Zidane wrote:

YQBexYHZBGM wrote:

Agreed. I'm not sure DOM really needs nonstop flights to the UK or other European destinations, or even US destinations further afield than MIA, but MIA is a no-brainer and I'm sure it will be a success. Sure, foreign inbound traffic will still be needed to ensure profitable loads, but I'm sure Dominicans will welcome the opportunities for VFR and, perhaps more importantly, retail purchases to bring home.

Such a flight would likely be upped to an A319 soon enough, people in that part of the world don't pack lightly. The LAA units are very capable.

My sincere thought that any aircraft, be it and Envoy E175 or LAA A319 will fly out of DOM with some manner of load restrictions. A 5700ft runway in the hot/humid climates of the Caribbean are not conducive to excellent take off performance at max gross. Keep in mind, SXM’s runway is nearly an additional 2000ft longer and short field performance takeoffs and weight restrictions are pretty typical, albeit for longer haul aircraft to Europe.

IMHO DOM does not need a a large jet airport when airlines aren’t asking and foreign investors aren’t willing to pay for one. With the $1 Billion ECD price tag… it sound like a financially ruinous, self-aggrandizing endeavor for the convenience of the handful of tourists that will come via government-subsidized flights. They have learned nothing from St. Vincent. The DOM government should stick to making DOM a fully utilized airport first followed by incremental expansion, and certification of better RNAV approaches and airport safety facilities.

Agreed. Unlike SVD, the existing facilities at DOM can easily accommodate expansion for any reasonable demand spanning decades. Extend the runway out to sea, clean up the approach end for RW09, and a larger apron to the North then call it a day.

A388 wrote:

I would love to see Caribbean Airlines back in Curacao and I think the ATR72 might make more sense now for Curacao, unless there is a lot of cargo too. If more cargo space is needed, the 737 of course is better. I don't know how cargo heavy the POS-CUR market is(?)
A388

I have heard it is quite cargo heavy. Also with Surinam Airways not likely to resume, perhaps this could be a 737 contender.
I know for sure GORTT is going to restrict frequency of flights so maybe 738/ 73MAX.

Cheers,
AA1818

aa1818 wrote:

A388 wrote:

I would love to see Caribbean Airlines back in Curacao and I think the ATR72 might make more sense now for Curacao, unless there is a lot of cargo too. If more cargo space is needed, the 737 of course is better. I don't know how cargo heavy the POS-CUR market is(?)
A388

I have heard it is quite cargo heavy. Also with Surinam Airways not likely to resume, perhaps this could be a 737 contender.
I know for sure GORTT is going to restrict frequency of flights so maybe 738/ 73MAX.

Cheers,
AA1818

Of all the VFR markets I would argue that the NYC area are the most integrated to the Caribbean. They are most likely to have close family members split between NYC and the Caribbean, and unlike those in FL they are mainly first wave immigrants. It is also a more working class route and so these ties are essential travel. Kids traveling in both directions to reconnect to family members. Many of those in FL are re-migrants from the NY area, so might be more tied to travel there than to the Caribbean.

I will expect YYZ to remain soft due to ongoing Canadian protocols. All one needs to see is the GEO market where YYZ is down to 1x weekly on BW, with 18x weekly on the JFK GEO with B6, AA, and BW. POS has tighter quarantine requirements so travel will be lower though I bet that many unvaccinated T&T folks will now fix that problem to avoid quarantine.

I think maybe 2x daily to JFK (with maybe some routed via GEO). Maybe 5x to YYZ direct or via GEO. I assume that the Canadian carriers arent going to be back in the near term. Daily to MIA competing with AA also daily (vs the usual 5x daily on the SoFL POS). Nothing to FLL/MCO, and no B6. BWs IAH is deferred unless its for the GEO market, then maybe a 1x IAH POS GEO. POS BGI at 2x with an ATR. I can see a daily POS OGL BGI. That is it for BGI. No ATR there. The milk run operates out of POS instead of KIN and does 1 stop flights via BGI, ANU or maybe SXM. Even as they have dropped other routes out of KIN they still keep NAS so they must be getting decent business on the weekly. I see a milk run POS GND SVD SLU this to fill the 68 seats, as that market will be quite thin. I wonder if UA will delay its return to POS.

BW is now promoting a summer JFK MBJ route 2x weekly. Given that B6 is multiple times daily and DL is daily (plus UA out of EWR) I do not see that this is needed with POS reopening and other routes being more viable. JFK BGI will be permanently axed. People have already made their travel plans and with no Crop Over travel will be lower than normal.

aa1818 wrote:

I have heard it is quite cargo heavy. Also with Surinam Airways not likely to resume, perhaps this could be a 737 contender.
I know for sure GORTT is going to restrict frequency of flights so maybe 738/ 73MAX.

Cheers,
AA1818

You have a valid point about Surinam Airways not being around for cargo as well so Caribbean Airlines can benefit from that absence if they time the connections right in POS. But isn't Caribbean Airlines having a joint cooperation with Surinam Airways now? They are flying on behalf of Surinam Airways too, lately.

A388

A388 wrote:

aa1818 wrote:

I have heard it is quite cargo heavy. Also with Surinam Airways not likely to resume, perhaps this could be a 737 contender.
I know for sure GORTT is going to restrict frequency of flights so maybe 738/ 73MAX.

Cheers,
AA1818

You have a valid point about Surinam Airways not being around for cargo as well so Caribbean Airlines can benefit from that absence if they time the connections right in POS. But isn't Caribbean Airlines having a joint cooperation with Surinam Airways now? They are flying on behalf of Surinam Airways too, lately.

A388

Let us hope that its BW and not the government which determines schedules and routes. If they too aggressively cut routes and get rid of too many pilots what happens when demand recovers? While one can fairly quickly train cabin and ground crews pilots not so easy. Once BW pilots leave the Caribbean it might not be easy to get them back.

Also I do not know if the government understands the disruption that the extended closure has done to family connections. There will be an upsurge of pent up demand as borders have now been closed for almost 1 1/2 years, especially out of JFK. . Looking at KIN and GEO the VFR market isnt dead, even though these markets are long passed the pent up demand stage. 4 flights to KIN from JFK and from FLL today. GEOs VFR out of the USA has recovered as full planes for Easter showed. I do not get the impression that the Gvt of TT is as aware of its diaspora as are the Jamaican and Guyanese gov'ts.

caribny wrote:

I think maybe 2x daily to JFK (with maybe some routed via GEO). Maybe 5x to YYZ direct or via GEO. I assume that the Canadian carriers arent going to be back in the near term. Daily to MIA competing with AA also daily (vs the usual 5x daily on the SoFL POS). Nothing to FLL/MCO, and no B6. BWs IAH is deferred unless its for the GEO market, then maybe a 1x IAH POS GEO. POS BGI at 2x with an ATR. I can see a daily POS OGL BGI. That is it for BGI. No ATR there. The milk run operates out of POS instead of KIN and does 1 stop flights via BGI, ANU or maybe SXM. Even as they have dropped other routes out of KIN they still keep NAS so they must be getting decent business on the weekly. I see a milk run POS GND SVD SLU this to fill the 68 seats, as that market will be quite thin.

I don't think that will be what the schedule looks like when borders re-open.

While the Government will not set/ direct flights, they will restrict the number of persons arriving, so CAL will have to submit a schedule for approval.

POS-BGI non-stop will definitely be there.
No North American destinations will be daily to begin with. T&T doesn't have the hotel/ hospital capacity to deal with that frequency.
The EC islands will be served non-stop from POS; no milk run.
KIN will be from POS probably a POS-SXM-KIN, POS-BGI-ANU-KIN, and maybe a POS-KIN non-stop
Don't be surprised to see a POS-MCO (are the parks in Orlando open?)
POS-HAV I understand was a very strong performer pre-COVID and I wouldn't be shocked to see it once weekly.
The routes they start up with out of POS will be very telling what was strong pre-COVID.
Will be interesting also to see what the GEO/OGL and BGI schedule changes are because CAL will still have the spare capacity to operate schedules from those bases separately.

Cheers,
AA1818

Zidane wrote:

Agreed. Unlike SVD, the existing facilities at DOM can easily accommodate expansion for any reasonable demand spanning decades. Extend the runway out to sea, clean up the approach end for RW09, and a larger apron to the North then call it a day.

They extended the runway safety zone and pushed the road out to sea. Waves crash the seawall and drench everything.
They also removed part of a hill and rerouted the river.
Basically they've done what they can.
And in my opinion they can meet current and future demands with what is now there.
But clearly Dominica wants to be St Lucia.
And build a new airport they will, even if the prevailing winds seem like they haven't been considered.

aa1818 wrote:

caribny wrote:

I think maybe 2x daily to JFK (with maybe some routed via GEO). Maybe 5x to YYZ direct or via GEO. I assume that the Canadian carriers arent going to be back in the near term. Daily to MIA competing with AA also daily (vs the usual 5x daily on the SoFL POS). Nothing to FLL/MCO, and no B6. BWs IAH is deferred unless its for the GEO market, then maybe a 1x IAH POS GEO. POS BGI at 2x with an ATR. I can see a daily POS OGL BGI. That is it for BGI. No ATR there. The milk run operates out of POS instead of KIN and does 1 stop flights via BGI, ANU or maybe SXM. Even as they have dropped other routes out of KIN they still keep NAS so they must be getting decent business on the weekly. I see a milk run POS GND SVD SLU this to fill the 68 seats, as that market will be quite thin.

I don't think that will be what the schedule looks like when borders re-open.

While the Government will not set/ direct flights, they will restrict the number of persons arriving, so CAL will have to submit a schedule for approval.

POS-BGI non-stop will definitely be there.
No North American destinations will be daily to begin with. T&T doesn't have the hotel/ hospital capacity to deal with that frequency.
The EC islands will be served non-stop from POS; no milk run.
KIN will be from POS probably a POS-SXM-KIN, POS-BGI-ANU-KIN, and maybe a POS-KIN non-stop
Don't be surprised to see a POS-MCO (are the parks in Orlando open?)
POS-HAV I understand was a very strong performer pre-COVID and I wouldn't be shocked to see it once weekly.
The routes they start up with out of POS will be very telling what was strong pre-COVID.
Will be interesting also to see what the GEO/OGL and BGI schedule changes are because CAL will still have the spare capacity to operate schedules from those bases separately.

Cheers,
AA1818

Parks are open in Orlando but this can be tied together with Miami. I would be highly, highly surprised if POS-MCO is there to be honest.

The point about hotel capacity however is a bit overstated I think. The percentage of people vaccinated abroad is substantial, these people will not have to go into quarantine. A couple times a week to Miami, daily to JFK and a combination of milk runs to KIN is what I suspect is going to happen for certain. Putting the ATR operations aside. Everything else we will have to wait and see.

SXM I think for now will be off of the cards. Travel from POS to SXM is not allowed except for SXM residents currently.

DaveMetroD wrote:

Zidane wrote:

Agreed. Unlike SVD, the existing facilities at DOM can easily accommodate expansion for any reasonable demand spanning decades. Extend the runway out to sea, clean up the approach end for RW09, and a larger apron to the North then call it a day.

They extended the runway safety zone and pushed the road out to sea. Waves crash the seawall and drench everything.
They also removed part of a hill and rerouted the river.
Basically they've done what they can.
And in my opinion they can meet current and future demands with what is now there.
But clearly Dominica wants to be St Lucia.
And build a new airport they will, even if the prevailing winds seem like they haven't been considered.

I agree completely. They have done what they can with the current location. If Dominica needs to build this airport is debatable. My opinion is no as Douglas Charles can handle the island's current needs.


Anyone know if Canefield has gotten COVID approved yet? Last I heard Douglas was the only airport approved currently, but I'm sure some operators would like to return to DCF instead.

Brickell305 wrote:

windian425 wrote:

T&T borders to officially reopen on 17th July. We should soon see what routes are maintained and which ones get cut. Hope we don't see an exit from OGL and the mini base in BGI with the ATR's. KIN will likely get the most of the cuts excluding the milk run from POS. Wonder if the BW153/154 KIN-BGI-JFK-BGI-KIN will also end.

Well, if they are keeping all the ATRs, then the BGI base may very well survive. There is going to be less demand to/from Trinidad to the rest of the region for the foreseeable future. 7 ATRs is more than they've usually had. They likely won't even need the 5 they've usually had based in POS on a regular basis. With 7, they will definitely need places to fly them. Unless they base some at KIN (which I doubt) or decide to try to be a LI replacement all up and down the E. Caribbean (which I also doubt), they may as well keep the BGI base.

If the 737s are what they are cutting back on then it'll be North American routes and Western Caribbean that will see the brunt of the cutbacks. My guess is destinations like NAS, GCM, MCO, FLL, MBJ that get cut. They most likely return to core routes, at lower frequency for now with a gradual return to normal service.

Not sure if you are a betting man
NAS is a very established route and currently flown 1w from KIN, it will continue to run 1w until traffic returns
MCO also established, not as long as MIA obviously but will return 1w due to a building West Indian community in Central Florida.
MBJ will remain seasonal until a full schedule is returned, currently operating 2w for the summer.
FLL this is the only route I am not sure about, last year talks were to consolidate and increase at MIA to increase cargo capacity and premium demand offering. I think it will be back eventually because of the VFR community in Broward and Palm beach.
GCM I expect to see it back eventually but not in the first go as it was the newest route to be added.

aa1818 wrote:

With POS reopening and assuming the Government still limits the flights to manage the influx of the virus, I would have recommended POS-BGI double daily, morning and evening, allowing onward connections, and then basing an ATR fleet in BGI to link- OGL, DOM, GND, SVD, SLU, ANU.
Since I don't think Caribbean Airlines nor the GORTT to be creative, I'm going with, non-stop ATR flights (weekly)
POS-CUR x1
POS-BGI x4
POS-SLU x3
POS-GND x3
POS-SVD x1
For the reduced 737 fleet:
POS-JFK x7
POS-MIA x3
POS-YYZ x2
POS-KIN (combination of non-stop and milk run) x4

That's my guess. Schedule should be out soon I understand.

Cheers,
AA1818

I see More or less the same, but some added guess:
POS-BGI I think daily ATR or a mix or 737/ATR 7w
POS-CUR 1w
POS-HAV HAV is still closed so when its opened I expect to see weekly
POS-MCO 1w
POS-ANU 2w
POS-KIN 3w
POS-GEO/OGL 14w

The BGI base will stay and be expended upon eventually.

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Takes a crisis to do what should have been done long ago. We will see who joins him. Like he says no one is traveling now anyway so little reveneue to lose. Good timing as well with T&T opening. Not sure about the travel bubble though.

I take it the ones that have airlines based in their respective country may follow suit so POS and BGI possibly. The others, I highly doubt it as they have no real incentive to enact that.

Empty hotel rooms? Otherwise they need to stop bawling about how airfares has destroyed intra regional travel. Not sure why BGI should be any more vested in this than SLU or especially GND which do source travelers from within the region.

I think its because they need to stimulate travel post covid or at least for now encourage intra-regional travel again. The taxes have become pretty excessive on travel from these islands to the point where international airlines were complaining also about the taxes.

https://caribbean.loopnews.com/content/ ... port-taxes

The new CARICOM Chairman and Antigua and Barbudan Prime Minister Gaston Browne intends to propose a 50 percent reduction in regional air transport taxes to his CARICOM counterparts when they meet today.

Browne received support from his Cabinet to make the proposal.

The Government said such a reduction would encourage greater use of LIAT’s services in the Caribbean while causing stronger economic activity within the region.

"Travel within the Caribbean is the third-largest source of income by airports, but Covid-19 has decimated this sector. The issue is how to revive this important sub-sector," the Government said in a post-Cabinet release.

caribbean484 wrote:

I see More or less the same, but some added guess:
POS-BGI I think daily ATR or a mix or 737/ATR 7w
POS-CUR 1w
POS-HAV HAV is still closed so when its opened I expect to see weekly
POS-MCO 1w
POS-ANU 2w
POS-KIN 3w
POS-GEO/OGL 14w

The BGI base will stay and be expended upon eventually.

Here's to hoping Caribbean Airlines will indeed return to Curacao. Because Curacao was a new destination for them, it makes me doubt they will return soon so I hope I'm wrong. Maybe they can even cooperate with Surinam Airways to operate the route together to fill the flights. My ultimate wish is for them to use their MAX to Curacao but I guess that's way too much to ask.

A388

fowlr29 wrote:

DaveMetroD wrote:

Zidane wrote:

Agreed. Unlike SVD, the existing facilities at DOM can easily accommodate expansion for any reasonable demand spanning decades. Extend the runway out to sea, clean up the approach end for RW09, and a larger apron to the North then call it a day.

They extended the runway safety zone and pushed the road out to sea. Waves crash the seawall and drench everything.
They also removed part of a hill and rerouted the river.
Basically they've done what they can.
And in my opinion they can meet current and future demands with what is now there.
But clearly Dominica wants to be St Lucia.
And build a new airport they will, even if the prevailing winds seem like they haven't been considered.

I agree completely. They have done what they can with the current location. If Dominica needs to build this airport is debatable. My opinion is no as Douglas Charles can handle the island's current needs.


Anyone know if Canefield has gotten COVID approved yet? Last I heard Douglas was the only airport approved currently, but I'm sure some operators would like to return to DCF instead.

I am for improvements to infrastructure to improve the economic viability and expansion of the island. The issue is that these projects are often called by men with delusion of grandeur and the reality is often they cannot pay for it. The amount of taxes they impose on tickets and then the subsidies paid to airlines to fly to those airports make it difficult to recoup fully, all the while talking about international airlines landing.

I hope BW returns to GCM. Cayman-Jamaica is one of the busiest air corridors in the Caribbean... and needs competition. And if they do it right (I would suggest maybe just extend the milk run so it connects seamlessly to BGI and POS) it should operate successfully for both BW and KX.