Brickell305 wrote:

AEROFAN wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

Just saw that KLM will be operating AMS-BGI-POS 3w from this winter.
https://www.travmagazine.nl/klm-naar-ze ... de-winter/
I saw some posts on FB with TUI flying a couple of charters during the pandemic but a new Long Haul to POS is something different.
Maybe we will see Eurowings in TAB also, with the new routes to BGI

KLM to Barbados and Trinidad is pretty neat. Hope the flights last.

Agreed. I wonder if they will be allowed to sell the BGI-POS leg?

Doubt that BGI-POS will be sold. They don't sell their other flights within the Dutch Antilles (SXM-CUR, BON- AUA etc) would be surprised if BGI - POS is any different. Routing is AMS - BGI - POS - AMS (Not sure as to what rights they have either)

Very interesting addition to the KLM schedule, but great for the connections in AMS to other parts of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Smart move.

Great news about the new KLM flight to BGI and POS!

KLM used to fly AMS-POS-PBM twice a week with a 747 back in the day. I was told by a former KLM staff that there wern’t many passengers between AMS and POS, but that this routing was kept so that the crew could overnight in POS instead of PBM, as PBM was not considered safe at the time. As soon as PBM was considered safe, the stop in POS was dropped. Not sure how true this is though.

No, they do not have any traffic rights between BGI and POS.

I think now that more slots are available at LHR and there’s competition between for travel between POS and Europe/Africa/Asia, BA might indeed consider moving the flights from LGW and LHR. Most BGI flight have already been moved to LHR as well as some seasonal ANU and UVF flights.

KL must have taken note of the charter traffic to POS from AMS. Today another flew into POS. BW is also doing an IAH-POS-IAH charter today. Both probably oil related.

UA must also be strongly considering scheduled GEO service at this point giving the high frequency of IAH to GEO charters, some even using UA B787s

BW600 wrote:

KL must have taken note of the charter traffic to POS from AMS. Today another flew into POS. BW is also doing an IAH-POS-IAH charter today. Both most definitely oil related.

UA must also be strongly considering scheduled GEO service at this point giving the high frequency to IAH to GEO charters, some even using UA B787s

I think UA starting IAH-GEO would be very interesting. It’d obviously hurt AA’s MIA-GEO somewhat but also CM’s PTY-GEO. I suspect the latter started up as oil traffic began to increase to GEO but there still wasn’t enough for a nonstop IAH flight and that was a way to route Star Alliance loyalists from IAH-GEO.

BW985 wrote:

KLM used to fly AMS-POS-PBM twice a week with a 747 back in the day.

For many years KLM operated to POS as an intermediate stop on its AMS-LIM and later its AMS-PTY routes with DC8-63 and DC10.

1972 1x week:
- KL773 DC8-63 AMS-FRA-ZRH-LIS-POS-CCS-CUR-PTY-UIO-LIM
- KL774 DC8-63 LIM-UIO-PTY-CUR-CCS-POS-LIS-ZRH-FRA-AMS

1978: 1x week:
- KL771 DC10 AMS-LIS-POS-CUR-PTY
- KL772 DC10 PTY-CUR-POS-LIS-AMS

1993: 1x week
- KL713 B747 AMS-PBM-POS-AMS triangle routing with AMS-POS-AMS on sale

Source: KLM timetables

Brickell305 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

KL must have taken note of the charter traffic to POS from AMS. Today another flew into POS. BW is also doing an IAH-POS-IAH charter today. Both most definitely oil related.

UA must also be strongly considering scheduled GEO service at this point giving the high frequency to IAH to GEO charters, some even using UA B787s

I think UA starting IAH-GEO would be very interesting. It’d obviously hurt AA’s MIA-GEO somewhat but also CM’s PTY-GEO. I suspect the latter started up as oil traffic began to increase to GEO but there still wasn’t enough for a nonstop IAH flight and that was a way to route Star Alliance loyalists from IAH-GEO.

Hasnt BW also applied for GEO-IAH? I would think they would do better than AA becuase of the non-stop option, or at least be compettive

maverick4002 wrote:

Hasnt BW also applied for GEO-IAH? I would think they would do better than AA becuase of the non-stop option, or at least be compettive

Wouldn't the demand be stronger from Pos US and with that the corporate traffic be more loyal to the US carriers compared with BW?
I think BW would only cater for P2P demand and would not be able to sustain a daily operation to remain attractive enough

A330Inter wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

Hasnt BW also applied for GEO-IAH? I would think they would do better than AA becuase of the non-stop option, or at least be compettive

Wouldn't the demand be stronger from Pos US and with that the corporate traffic be more loyal to the US carriers compared with BW?
I think BW would only cater for P2P demand and would not be able to sustain a daily operation to remain attractive enough

If BW is the only nonstop option, it could pull a significant amount of business traffic. The issue is if BW starts it, I don’t see it taking much longer for UA to start it and I think they would pretty quickly take away BW’s market share as they would have a lot of inherent advantages.

Brickell305 wrote:

Agreed. I wonder if they will be allowed to sell the BGI-POS leg?

I doubt it. BA has those rights as they were grandfathered. Aside from AC none of the other foreign carriers which have those rights still exist.

Brickell305 wrote:

A330Inter wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

Hasnt BW also applied for GEO-IAH? I would think they would do better than AA because of the non-stop option, or at least be competitive

Wouldn't the demand be stronger from Pos US and with that the corporate traffic be more loyal to the US carriers compared with BW?
I think BW would only cater for P2P demand and would not be able to sustain a daily operation to remain attractive enough

If BW is the only nonstop option, it could pull a significant amount of business traffic. The issue is if BW starts it, I don’t see it taking much longer for UA to start it and I think they would pretty quickly take away BW’s market share as they would have a lot of inherent advantages.

They applied for IAH-GEO-POS-GEO-IAH for charter reasons as the boarders of POS is closed; and also for 3w POS-IAH-POS with the possibility of GEO being added when the boarders reopen. CAL got contracts with the energy companies last year, so I believe they are now executing those contracts.
There is not enough demand between IAH-GEO to warrant scheduled flights at this time. There is a decent Trinidad Expat community that have moved to Texas over the years and that is why CAL provided the statistics last year for 3w service to IAH.

gunnerman wrote:

I'm sure that KL has considered alternatives in the event of the continued closure of POS, e.g. retaining just BGI or sharing with another destination such as SXM.

The way the PM recently talked it seems that POS will be opening soon, I say by September/October the boarders will be reopened.

Brickell305 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

KL must have taken note of the charter traffic to POS from AMS. Today another flew into POS. BW is also doing an IAH-POS-IAH charter today. Both most definitely oil related.

UA must also be strongly considering scheduled GEO service at this point giving the high frequency to IAH to GEO charters, some even using UA B787s

I think UA starting IAH-GEO would be very interesting. It’d obviously hurt AA’s MIA-GEO somewhat but also CM’s PTY-GEO. I suspect the latter started up as oil traffic began to increase to GEO but there still wasn’t enough for a nonstop IAH flight and that was a way to route Star Alliance loyalists from IAH-GEO.

Pre pandemic the bulk of CMs GEO market originated in the Caribbean, I presume Cuba though some Haitians also used it. Not sure what their market is now. Given that GEO traffic has (almost) recovered from the pandemic due to new oil related travel I will assume that this drop represents the loss of HAV GEO travel.

BW has route rights to do IAH GEO charters. Maybe when POS reopens BW will replace UA, or at least try to compete for the business. Sometimes Omni is used instead of UA so maybe BW can then take over all the charters. This so that they do not completely lose their status as one of the dominant carriers into GEO.. I was of the impression that their planned IAH POS is heavily premised on same plane connecting service to GEO. This allowing them to compete against UA into POS once the borders reopen.

And yes T&T needs to reopen the borders. Clearly isolating T&T didnt prevent the spread of Covid so I do not see the rationalization for continued closure. Contact tracing and vaccinations have to be the tools used, together with quarantines and other entry protocols as necessary. I could have seen border closures early this year to blunt calls for carnival as the vaccines were not really available. But we have moved beyond the "life vs. livelihood" argument as an excuse for border closures. T&T needs to do a better job in ramping up its vaccination program. I assume that inability to get sufficient does to vaccinate at least 70% of its adult population might be the challenge.

SJU-based Silver Airways (3M) will launch SJU-AXA on 3 June until 6 August. Flights will be operated on Thursdays and Saturdays by subsidiary Seaborne Airlines (BB) using the Saab 340B.

A330Inter wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

Hasnt BW also applied for GEO-IAH? I would think they would do better than AA becuase of the non-stop option, or at least be compettive

Wouldn't the demand be stronger from Pos US and with that the corporate traffic be more loyal to the US carriers compared with BW?
I think BW would only cater for P2P demand and would not be able to sustain a daily operation to remain attractive enough

IAH is UA's second biggest hub by flight numbers, even a bit ahead of ORD. If UA started IAH-GEO it would wipe out BW on this route.

gunnerman wrote:

A330Inter wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

Hasnt BW also applied for GEO-IAH? I would think they would do better than AA becuase of the non-stop option, or at least be compettive

Wouldn't the demand be stronger from Pos US and with that the corporate traffic be more loyal to the US carriers compared with BW?
I think BW would only cater for P2P demand and would not be able to sustain a daily operation to remain attractive enough

IAH is UA's second biggest hub by flight numbers, even a bit ahead of ORD. If UA started IAH-GEO it would wipe out BW on this route.

Yes if UA thinks that IAH GEO is worthy of their assets BW will be in trouble with their planned IAH POS GEO service and their IAH GEO charters. One factor though is that there is nothing preventing UA from starting this service and they do not operate all the charters. Sometimes Omni is used, so maybe they do not see sufficient consistency of demand or they do not like the yields. So if BW is able to jump in quickly maybe UA might decide that the route isnt worth it.

There is also a Guyanese population in TX, most I think IAH, so BW can also tap into that market once they begin service. Their success will depend on what happens at POS as Guyanese tend to view this in transit point as the gateway to hell. Not sure if something prevents them from operating a IAH POS GEO service to avoid the perception of a possible change of aircraft at POS. They did this on their MIA route.

And yes while there is a T&T VFR market in IAH remember that this type of travel is highly seasonal. VFR travel beyond the NY/YYZ/FL gateways is more fickle as connections are weaker (many of these people are secondary migrants from other parts of the USA so the home ties are less strong). Also for the same reason they are not as attached to Caribbean brands.

Still curious if a return to BWI/IAD is in the cards. The DC area (especially MD) has a decent VFR market. Also its a good leisure market source if BGI is tacked on.

windian425 wrote:

richard757 wrote:

Fantastic news for both POS and BGI. Finally, there will be better connections onwards to Europe, Asia and other destinations. British Airways connections out of LGW is limited and it is always a nightmare to transfer from Gatwick to Heathrow for onward connections.

Most of BA and all of VS flights to London operate to Heathrow now. No need to connect between LGW and LHR for connections. That been said, KL provides additional options for both Europe and Asia.

BA still operates its Caribbean flights mainly from LGW. Here's the list of destinations, either currently served or to be served later this summer.

BA from LHR
BGI
NAS
GCM

BA from LGW
ANU, SKB, TAB, PLS, POS, GND
PUJ
UVF
KIN
CUN

As for VS: it's all from LHR in South East England as LGW has been abandoned but don't forget MAN-BGI 3x weekly restarting 19 June.

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

KL must have taken note of the charter traffic to POS from AMS. Today another flew into POS. BW is also doing an IAH-POS-IAH charter today. Both most definitely oil related.

UA must also be strongly considering scheduled GEO service at this point giving the high frequency to IAH to GEO charters, some even using UA B787s

I think UA starting IAH-GEO would be very interesting. It’d obviously hurt AA’s MIA-GEO somewhat but also CM’s PTY-GEO. I suspect the latter started up as oil traffic began to increase to GEO but there still wasn’t enough for a nonstop IAH flight and that was a way to route Star Alliance loyalists from IAH-GEO.

Pre pandemic the bulk of CMs GEO market originated in the Caribbean, I presume Cuba though some Haitians also used it. Not sure what their market is now. Given that GEO traffic has (almost) recovered from the pandemic due to new oil related travel I will assume that this drop represents the loss of HAV GEO travel.

BW has route rights to do IAH GEO charters. Maybe when POS reopens BW will replace UA, or at least try to compete for the business. Sometimes Omni is used instead of UA so maybe BW can then take over all the charters. This so that they do not completely lose their status as one of the dominant carriers into GEO.. I was of the impression that their planned IAH POS is heavily premised on same plane connecting service to GEO. This allowing them to compete against UA into POS once the borders reopen.

And yes T&T needs to reopen the borders. Clearly isolating T&T didnt prevent the spread of Covid so I do not see the rationalization for continued closure. Contact tracing and vaccinations have to be the tools used, together with quarantines and other entry protocols as necessary. I could have seen border closures early this year to blunt calls for carnival as the vaccines were not really available. But we have moved beyond the "life vs. livelihood" argument as an excuse for border closures. T&T needs to do a better job in ramping up its vaccination program. I assume that inability to get sufficient does to vaccinate at least 70% of its adult population might be the challenge.

There is no benefit to T&T keeping the boarders closed at this time; all it is doing is damaging the economy more and putting businesses more hard with the open and closing decisions.

The IAH-POS-GEO route is predicated on the same a/c flying into GEO.

caribny wrote:

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

The route is seasonal but it depends on the strategy KL is deploying here. If the route does really well then they may keep it year round for the oil business and the forward connecting opportunities to UK, EU and beyond. They could get pax from the Middle East, Africa and BHP Billiton energy travel from Australia.
BA cannot replicate that in LGW and therefore a very good opportunity for KL to take advantage of the opportunity, unless BA starts LHR.

caribny wrote:

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

KL has 17 UK destinations I believe, and there is no question that some traffic will be taken from both BA and VS if BGI and POS were launched. For example, EDI (capital of Scotland) to POS is possible on KL via AMS but not on BA as it has no flights between LGW and EDI, best you can do is get to LGW the day before and stay in an airport hotel.

gunnerman wrote:

caribny wrote:

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

KL has 17 UK destinations I believe, and there is no question that some traffic will be taken from both BA and VS if BGI and POS were launched. For example, EDI (capital of Scotland) to POS is possible on KL via AMS but not on BA as it has no flights between LGW and EDI, best you can do is get to LGW the day before and stay in an airport hotel.

Lets not forget that BA flights to BGI are mostly from LHR not LGW anymore. EDI-LHR-BGI is totally doable all on BA.

windian425 wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

caribny wrote:

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

KL has 17 UK destinations I believe, and there is no question that some traffic will be taken from both BA and VS if BGI and POS were launched. For example, EDI (capital of Scotland) to POS is possible on KL via AMS but not on BA as it has no flights between LGW and EDI, best you can do is get to LGW the day before and stay in an airport hotel.

Lets not forget that BA flights to BGI are mostly from LHR not LGW anymore. EDI-LHR-BGI is totally doable all on BA.

If this is a winter only service the focus is clearly on BGI. Maybe a few curious continental Euros combining a POS/TAB trip. Peak outbound travel from the Caribbean tends not to be in the winter months. Maybe premium travel to POS for pax who might otherwise use BA, and that is while the service lasts, and then back to BA.

caribny wrote:

windian425 wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

KL has 17 UK destinations I believe, and there is no question that some traffic will be taken from both BA and VS if BGI and POS were launched. For example, EDI (capital of Scotland) to POS is possible on KL via AMS but not on BA as it has no flights between LGW and EDI, best you can do is get to LGW the day before and stay in an airport hotel.

Lets not forget that BA flights to BGI are mostly from LHR not LGW anymore. EDI-LHR-BGI is totally doable all on BA.

If this is a winter only service the focus is clearly on BGI. Maybe a few curious continental Euros combining a POS/TAB trip. Peak outbound travel from the Caribbean tends not to be in the winter months. Maybe premium travel to POS for pax who might otherwise use BA, and that is while the service lasts, and then back to BA.

Agreed. If this is a winter only flight, they are definitely just using POS to pad whatever BGI cannot fill on its own. If they saw POS as a viable business route and/or source market for outbound travel, this would be year round.

windian425 wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

caribny wrote:

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

KL has 17 UK destinations I believe, and there is no question that some traffic will be taken from both BA and VS if BGI and POS were launched. For example, EDI (capital of Scotland) to POS is possible on KL via AMS but not on BA as it has no flights between LGW and EDI, best you can do is get to LGW the day before and stay in an airport hotel.

Lets not forget that BA flights to BGI are mostly from LHR not LGW anymore. EDI-LHR-BGI is totally doable all on BA.

And also, let's note that BA is also just not that dependent on connections past LON for a route like BGI. That may have changed somewhat post pandemic as traffic levels have dropped and every passenger counts. However, once things normalize, expect BGI to be primarily O&D even if served from LHR. The reason they moved this route there was not for connections, it was to use as many LHR slots as possible with routes that could cover the associated costs.

It's been a long time since BGI shared a destination, it was GND on BA and UVF on VS. Barbados is such a premium destination that O&D traffic profitably fills the aircraft.

caribny wrote:

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

That is precisely what KL did in POS during the last decade or so of service there prior to their withdrawal in 1993. They competed with low fares to London via AMS at which free stopovers were available. At the time they competed with both BWIA (daily to LHR) and BA (2X weekly to LGW) with their 2X weekly services via PBM. They sold POS-PBM-POS too as one weekly flight routed AMS - PBM - POS - AMS and the other AMS - POS - PBM - AMS. For a while they were the only operator between POS and PBM.

When KL ended POS flights they collaborated with ALM Antillean Airlines to offer connections via CUR to their AMS flights from there. PY also returned to POS after around a decade of absence to maintain the PBM link. BWIA only started serving PBM later on (1999 if I recall correctly) by which time the travel market between the two countries had grown considerably following Suriname's 1995 entry into CARICOM.

I somehow think that KL is looking to make POS and BGI a year-round service albeit starting out the route as seasonal. A 3/week service is quite a significant up-front investment in a trans-Atlantic route that would solely be seasonal.

Trintocan.

gunnerman wrote:

caribny wrote:

So KL might use AMS as a better hub for POS than BA can offer at LGW. Also depending on their fares they might even snag some London bound travel for price sensitive passengers who used to travel via TAB where better fares were available.

KL has 17 UK destinations I believe, and there is no question that some traffic will be taken from both BA and VS if BGI and POS were launched. For example, EDI (capital of Scotland) to POS is possible on KL via AMS but not on BA as it has no flights between LGW and EDI, best you can do is get to LGW the day before and stay in an airport hotel.

KL's UK strategy is heavily based on feeding AMS and offering connections globally. BGI and POS, especially the latter, can certainly work in this regard. They indeed serve 17 UK cities - LHR, LCY, NWI, SOU, BRS, CWL, BHX, MAN, LBA, HUY, MME, NCL, EDI, GLA, ABZ, INV and BHD. It would be a lot more convenient for many people to fly to POS departing from a local airport.

Where BA's Caribbean flights are concerned, only their BGI flights have moved to LHR and joined NAS and GCM. Their other Caribbean flights remain at LGW. While the usual slot utilisation rules have been suspended owing to the pandemic they still have a huge footprint in LGW and they have tried to use what they can on both sites. I think in going forward they would keep the Caribbean flights at LGW (they may retain BGI at LHR owing to its higher profile).

Trintocan.

BA's daily LHR-BGI is now year-round and flights from LGW will be added in the peak winter season. From 31 October 2021 to 26 March 2022 LGW-BGI will be reintroduced 4x weekly on Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays with no First cabin (as I believe that all of the 4-cabin 772s at LGW have been moved back to LHR). Here's the seat configurations. One more thing: I expect the LGW 772s to have the 10-abreast configuration in World Traveller, so be warned.

From LHR (235 seats)
First 8
Club World 49
World Traveller Plus 40
World Traveller 138

From LGW (336 seats)
Club World 32
World Traveller Plus 52
World Traveller 252

gunnerman wrote:

Here's the seat configurations. One more thing: I expect the LGW 772s to have the 10-abreast configuration in World Traveller, so be warned.

From LHR (235 seats)
First 8
Club World 49
World Traveller Plus 40
World Traveller 138

From LGW (336 seats)
Club World 32
World Traveller Plus 52
World Traveller 252

Both the LHR and LGW configurations are 10 abreast in Y.

Yes, unfortunately BA no longer flies the same 772 to BGI which had 9-across but only 226 seats.

Previous LGW-BGI (226 seats)
First 14
Club World 48
World Traveller Plus 40
World Traveller 124

I do think it's a retrograde step having 10-across in a 4-cabin 772.

AA will on 5 June launch a Saturday service from DFW to UVF using the 321 until 14 August. These flights will complement the existing ones to UVF from MIA and CLT. The Saturday flights on DFW-UVF will be reinstated on 18 December for the peak winter season.

With AS starting LAX/SEA-BZE in November, can LAX-GCM/MBJ be far behind?

LightChop2Chop wrote:

With AS starting LAX/SEA-BZE in November, can LAX-GCM/MBJ be far behind?

Do they have a plane that can make it that far?

tphuang wrote:

LightChop2Chop wrote:

With AS starting LAX/SEA-BZE in November, can LAX-GCM/MBJ be far behind?

Do they have a plane that can make it that far?

Well a 737-300 can make GCM-DEN, but any GCM-LAX flight would have to have easy connections to HKG, SIN, and MNL: where the demand is. Is there a US carrier that serve all 3 from LAX?

Caymanair wrote:

tphuang wrote:

LightChop2Chop wrote:

With AS starting LAX/SEA-BZE in November, can LAX-GCM/MBJ be far behind?

Do they have a plane that can make it that far?

Well a 737-300 can make GCM-DEN, but any GCM-LAX flight would have to have easy connections to HKG, SIN, and MNL: where the demand is. Is there a US carrier that serve all 3 from LAX?

What’s the nature of demand from SIN, HKG, MNL to GCM? Genuinely curious.

And yes, AS has planes that can fly LAX-MBJ/GCM. AA used to fly LAX-MBJ with a 737-800.

Don’t forget they have Maxs

Brickell305 wrote:

Caymanair wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Do they have a plane that can make it that far?

Well a 737-300 can make GCM-DEN, but any GCM-LAX flight would have to have easy connections to HKG, SIN, and MNL: where the demand is. Is there a US carrier that serve all 3 from LAX?

What’s the nature of demand from SIN, HKG, MNL to GCM? Genuinely curious.

And yes, AS has planes that can fly LAX-MBJ/GCM. AA used to fly LAX-MBJ with a 737-800.

Although there is an LA crowd in Cayman, I'd imagine that the route wouldn't survive without the business traffic to SIN and HKG (most Caymanian firms have office there and vice versa, and Cayman is a popular choice for HK businesses looking outward) and MNL (source of the 2nd or 3rd largest group of expatriates in Cayman). Virtually all of the business currently flies via LHR. There would be smaller pockets of demand to mainland China and South Asia, but I think it would be very hard to compete with LHR for those connections.

LightChop2Chop wrote:

Don’t forget they have Maxs

Wouldn’t even need those. AS has been flying SEA-FLL and before that SEA-MIA for years. Both are longer than LAX-GCM or LAX-MBJ would be.

Caymanair wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

Caymanair wrote:

Well a 737-300 can make GCM-DEN, but any GCM-LAX flight would have to have easy connections to HKG, SIN, and MNL: where the demand is. Is there a US carrier that serve all 3 from LAX?

What’s the nature of demand from SIN, HKG, MNL to GCM? Genuinely curious.

And yes, AS has planes that can fly LAX-MBJ/GCM. AA used to fly LAX-MBJ with a 737-800.

Although there is an LA crowd in Cayman, I'd imagine that the route wouldn't survive without the business traffic to SIN and HKG (most Caymanian firms have office there and vice versa, and Cayman is a popular choice for HK businesses looking outward) and MNL (source of the 2nd or 3rd largest group of expatriates in Cayman). Virtually all of the business currently flies via LHR. There would be smaller pockets of demand to mainland China and South Asia, but I think it would be very hard to compete with LHR for those connections.

Interesting. I guess a hypothetical LAX flight could pick up some of that traffic, especially with AS in OneWorld now.

The borders of POS should be reopened within 6 weeks with conditions; most likely people who are fully vaccinated, and a type of country color restriction.

How likely is reopening of borders in July in view of the imposition a state of emergency and a curfew three weeks ago to contain an increase of COVID-19 cases and related deaths, and with the slow vaccination rollout with under 8% of the population having had at least on dose?

gunnerman wrote:

How likely is reopening of borders in July in view of the imposition a state of emergency and a curfew three weeks ago to contain an increase of COVID-19 cases and related deaths, and with the slow vaccination rollout with under 8% of the population having had at least on dose?

I wondered that myself. But that is what the PM announced. I think they are realizing that the current situation is untenable. It will probably be like it is in some other islands where the borders are open but curfews remain in effect and activity severely limited. I wonder how Trinidad will do traffic wise post reopening. Trinidad is a VFR and business market. And VFR markets in the English speaking Caribbean have been especially weak. As has business travel.

gunnerman wrote:

How likely is reopening of borders in July in view of the imposition a state of emergency and a curfew three weeks ago to contain an increase of COVID-19 cases and related deaths, and with the slow vaccination rollout with under 8% of the population having had at least on dose?

What POS has shown, is having your borders closed for a year plus, does very little in stopping the virus from spreading. Even SKB who had arguably the most stringent entry protocols couldn't stop community spread, although they staved it off for quite a while. Suffice to say, it's better to open the borders and simply manage the entry of persons coming in and enforcing vaccination protocols. Compare POS and SKB to say ANU that was the first to open 1 year ago. ANU did quite well for many months keeping the Covid numbers low until about Jan/Feb this year when the numbers skyrocketed after the holiday season. Even BGI and UVF has similar patterns. It's quite clear to say, having the borders closed is pointless. The influx of Covid in Trinidad certainly didn't arrive via the airports! BW is also probably teetering on the edge of collapse and opening the borders is more for their benefit. Airlines would have already planned/published their summer schedules and likely won't include POS until after summer leaving the market entirely for BW.

I believe TT has secured 800,000 doses of the JJ one shot vaccine, This 800,000 with the already ~100,000 that should be fully vaxxed shortly is enough of the population to achieve herd immunity. This is likely the trigger for the re-opening of borders.

You have to wonder how many more people will visit Trinidad and Tobago after the borders reopen. British nationals wishing to enter or depart from T&T must first obtain a travel exemption to do so from the Ministry of National Security, and from 8 June the country will be moved by the UK government from the amber list to the red list (meaning amongst other things a mandatory quarantine in a managed hotel costing £1,750 on arrival in England). In any case there will be limited airlift of three flights a week from the UK as BA is scheduled to resume flights - but only weekly - on the LGW-ANU-TAB and LGW-ANU-POS routes on 9 July and 12 July respectively, and VS is scheduled to operate LHR-ANU-TAB weekly from 1 July.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

How likely is reopening of borders in July in view of the imposition a state of emergency and a curfew three weeks ago to contain an increase of COVID-19 cases and related deaths, and with the slow vaccination rollout with under 8% of the population having had at least on dose?

What POS has shown, is having your borders closed for a year plus, does very little in stopping the virus from spreading. Even SKB who had arguably the most stringent entry protocols couldn't stop community spread, although they staved it off for quite a while. Suffice to say, it's better to open the borders and simply manage the entry of persons coming in and enforcing vaccination protocols. Compare POS and SKB to say ANU that was the first to open 1 year ago. ANU did quite well for many months keeping the Covid numbers low until about Jan/Feb this year when the numbers skyrocketed after the holiday season. Even BGI and UVF has similar patterns. It's quite clear to say, having the borders closed is pointless. The influx of Covid in Trinidad certainly didn't arrive via the airports! BW is also probably teetering on the edge of collapse and opening the borders is more for their benefit. Airlines would have already planned/published their summer schedules and likely won't include POS until after summer leaving the market entirely for BW.

Closed borders is an important step to prevent it from coming in from overseas. It makes no difference, though, if your on-the-ground protocols aren't designed to stop it from spreading in the community.

I too wonder if a reopening is actually on the cards anytime soon. With the situation on the ground in POS appearing not that great and the pressures from other countries requiring quarantine.

gunnerman wrote:

You have to wonder how many more people will visit Trinidad and Tobago after the borders reopen. British nationals wishing to enter or depart from T&T must first obtain a travel exemption to do so from the Ministry of National Security, and from 8 June the country will be moved by the UK government from the amber list to the red list (meaning amongst other things a mandatory quarantine in a managed hotel costing £1,750 on arrival in England). In any case there will be limited airlift of three flights a week from the UK as BA is scheduled to resume flights - but only weekly - on the LGW-ANU-TAB and LGW-ANU-POS routes on 9 July and 12 July respectively, and VS is scheduled to operate LHR-ANU-TAB weekly from 1 July.

Those BA and VS flights to POS/TAB are not going to resume as scheduled. The PM gave a timeline of 4-6 weeks so the borders would not even be open then. Add to that the fact that the requirements to enter Trinidad and Tobago have yet to be announced and T&T’s move to the red list that you mentioned. There’s no way that schedule actually holds.

Brickell305 wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

How likely is reopening of borders in July in view of the imposition a state of emergency and a curfew three weeks ago to contain an increase of COVID-19 cases and related deaths, and with the slow vaccination rollout with under 8% of the population having had at least on dose?

I wondered that myself. But that is what the PM announced. I think they are realizing that the current situation is untenable. It will probably be like it is in some other islands where the borders are open but curfews remain in effect and activity severely limited. I wonder how Trinidad will do traffic wise post reopening. Trinidad is a VFR and business market. And VFR markets in the English speaking Caribbean have been especially weak. As has business travel.

The JFK GEO market is strong. AA and B6 are now daily and BW is up to 4x. This is actually more than in 2019. MIA will be the route which will increase based on oil business so this increase must be VFR. Likely lower fares will generate higher travel.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

gunnerman wrote:

How likely is reopening of borders in July in view of the imposition a state of emergency and a curfew three weeks ago to contain an increase of COVID-19 cases and related deaths, and with the slow vaccination rollout with under 8% of the population having had at least on dose?

What POS has shown, is having your borders closed for a year plus, does very little in stopping the virus from spreading. Even SKB who had arguably the most stringent entry protocols couldn't stop community spread, although they staved it off for quite a while. Suffice to say, it's better to open the borders and simply manage the entry of persons coming in and enforcing vaccination protocols. Compare POS and SKB to say ANU that was the first to open 1 year ago. ANU did quite well for many months keeping the Covid numbers low until about Jan/Feb this year when the numbers skyrocketed after the holiday season. Even BGI and UVF has similar patterns. It's quite clear to say, having the borders closed is pointless. The influx of Covid in Trinidad certainly didn't arrive via the airports! BW is also probably teetering on the edge of collapse and opening the borders is more for their benefit. Airlines would have already planned/published their summer schedules and likely won't include POS until after summer leaving the market entirely for BW.

SKB reopened their borders since November, though with stringent quarantine requirements. Even now with their community spread SKB is better off than ANU. 63% of its adult population now have received first dose, 25% fully vaccinated, and they have had no deaths and less than 90 infections. You have the ANU numbers. SKB also had a comprehensive social support program, especially given that its a sovereign country, and not an overseas territory. Even the braiders and the street vendors More comprehensive than what ANU, and this because of its low debt and funds available from its citizenship program. Their citizenship program and the 3 offshore medical schools render them less dependent on tourism than ANU.

T&T is a whole different category. Extreme border closure, even as the vaccines are now available. Also poor contact tracing and vaccination rates. I am glad that they got the J&J because with a one dose regimen they should quickly catch up. Maybe the PM is finally listening to the population which is saying that while extreme border closures were necessary last year with the availability of vaccines this is no longer necessary.

edit

DR updates:

Skycana is operating MIA-PUJ flights starting this 11/6 for a tour operator, A321 2 weekly every friday and saturdays until August.
Also operating Maracaibo and Valencia, Venezuela, from SDQ with 2 weekly each, for a tour operator too.
Several Colombia charters during this summer from SDQ, POP and PUJ.

RedAir is almost starting Ops with 3 MD80 from SDQ.

Sky High is operating schedule flights to BON, AUA, CUR, SXM, SKB and charters to BGI and GND.
EIS, AXA, ANU remain closed with DR.

danipawa wrote:

DR updates:

Skycana is operating MIA-PUJ flights starting this Jun 11 for a tour operator, A321 2 weekly every friday and saturdays until August.

RedAir is almost starting Ops with 3 MD80 from SDQ.

Sky High is operating schedule flights to BON, AUA, CUR, SXM, SKB and charters to BGI and GND.
EIS, AXA, ANU remain closed with DR.

Among the larger Caribbean nations DR is doing the best job in vaccination so I assume that ANU will reopen to Sky High, especially given the size of the Dominican population on that island. The Dominican population in SKB/NEV is so large that their national elections are now semi bilingual and there is significant Spanish language radio programming, so Sky High should be doing reasonably well.