It’s going to be hard for a breeze to go down any path unless they start selling tickets. Right now all they have done is hire people, buy planes, and update their web site with a lot of hype.
Any day now......
Also, if there are all of there lucrative secondary markets out there why isn’t Allegiant taking advantage of it? Or Spirit?
Planned launch was May of 2021 as noted in July of 2020. So they seem to be right on track.
Breeze has their AOC, so that makes this a question of when, not if and my this seems right on schedule.
Bummer the airline tried to move that up to March. It looks like the government liked the original schedule.
Now to consider the opportunity:
Considering how fast Allegiant plans to expand (125 routes in 2 years), I would say there is an opportunity. Spirit hunkered down during the downturn. Now they need to ramp back up.
Allegiant notes in their full year 2020 conference call (at 5 min in) that their new app is helping with sales. Breeze has the advantage of a much more advanced app (theoretically). My opinion on airline apps is they are way behind where they should be. I have hope. As per the conference call, Allegiant has the aircraft and crews to expand rapidly, so I fully expect a fast expansion. This call notes airlines will struggle for years. The call at 7 minutes in goes into the low utilization model of Allegiant that Breeze is copying (7 minutes into the call). "Not flying on off peak days." That is a key part of the model of Breeze. (Allegiant averages 6 to 7 hours per day.) Stop flying on low (almost no demand on Tuesdays or Wednesdays per call). Also at about 19 minutes, the call notes that Allegiants new app/website "conversion/attachment" rates are up (more ancillary sales). Wow "not a single scheduled Tuesday flight this year (2020)".
Right now Breeze is preparing to launch. When the DOT allows them to sell tickets they will; since it is the weekend, we know the next few days will have no new information.
What Neeleman's airlines bring to the table is customer service. My opinion is his staff are far friendlier than Allegiant, Spirit, or Frontier. The customer satisfaction ratings are certainly poor
#4 JetBlue: Hit by delays, as I don't fly to/from JFK very often, not of concern to myself, so I would rank them higher, but I respect their delays bring down their score.
We are all anticipating the Breeze airways launch.
I personally think the Allegiant model of low frequency (2x to 5x per week) service is under-utilized.
Breeze bought E-jets so cheap that they'll fly them relatively little. They'll expand on the Allegiant model of not wasting money flying on days few fly (Tuesdays/Wednesdays).
Breeze airways notes they identified 500+ underserved routes:
I think Neeleman and team have thought through far more of the "nuts and bolts" of launching an airline than before. My opinion is far better cost control, realization that current airline apps and web sites are 2nd rate (e.g., Delta, when I move a flight, don't announce the prior time flights as that is just distracting making me think I forgot to finalize the move or something).
I believe 2021 and 2022 will be leisure flying. If the costs are truly well controlled and the app has a good conversion rate, Breeze should succeed.