I recently came across this article:https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hea ... -passenger
For non-subscribers there is a free version here;https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/22 ... -infection
What I found fascinating is that how China is in total control on when and how Hong Kong would open to who:
David Hui Shu-cheong, a government pandemic adviser, said the airport's plan was a good way to reduce cross-infections.
"[Mainland officials] expressed concern about Hong Kong's border control. So Hong Kong has to do something to tighten the measures to make the mainland feel more confident about the border reopening," he said.
Although this article is not directly linked to CX and its future. But it does provides some insight on when CX could get out of the crisis and how.
I think the writing is clear, Hong Kong won't open up very soon. Maybe another year as minimum. The local progressive tries to segregate arrivals by region in order to open up slowly and to please mainland regulators, yet its total dependence on mainland control could also spell trouble for future and also CX's survival. The outlook for CX's next 3-4 quarters will be very bleak. Things could change by March when mainland visitors can visit without quarantine like what Macau did, and some traffic can be picked up between Hong Kong and mainland. However, one has to bear in mind that CX will have to share traffic with several mainland carriers (and HSR) and the revenue may not be able to provide any significant improvement.
Should mainland opening is possible by March/April, the next phase may not start until 1st July 2022 logically, when mainland regulators decides it is time to reward Hong Kong for its loyalty and relax muscle a bit. If that failed, then 1st October 2022 might be the next target.
Will CX be able to last until then? What does CX have in plan to be hibernating that long? I personally feel that CX needs a plan B, like set up new airlines in Taiwan or Canada by Swire group of companies, and starts to move assets like airplanes to the new company and slowly reduce its exposure to the uncertainties in Hong Kong for years to come. CX left Shanghai for Hong Kong in last century. Maybe it is the time to think unthinkable that to leave Hong Kong for another liberal business friendly territory?