Southwest Fleet/Network Thread - 2021

LotsaRunway · Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:33 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
RITA BTS data show WN had fewer passengers at SEA in 2019 than it did in 2011 -- while total passenger counts at SEA grew 58% in that time. WN just gave up in SEA when DL started building its hub in 2014. AS was running like 19x daily SEA-ANC summer schedule pre-Covid.

There are numerous cases where WN goes all-in on a market and then pulls back on the throttle. Yesterday's accomplishments are old news and they move on to the next shiny object. Consider DEN and LGB vs BOS and PHL. Yes, this is an oversimplification, but since even before COVID, WN started pulling back on "non-strategic" system-volume building markets in favor of new and strategic markets.

Flflyer83 · Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:46 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
RITA BTS data show WN had fewer passengers at SEA in 2019 than it did in 2011 -- while total passenger counts at SEA grew 58% in that time. WN just gave up in SEA when DL started building its hub in 2014. AS was running like 19x daily SEA-ANC summer schedule pre-Covid.

According to BTS data, SEA also had one of the lowest average fares of all of the airports WN served at the time. If WN doesn’t do anything else well, they do adjust their schedules accordingly to maximize profit.

jplatts · Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:03 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
RITA BTS data show WN had fewer passengers at SEA in 2019 than it did in 2011 -- while total passenger counts at SEA grew 58% in that time. WN just gave up in SEA when DL started building its hub in 2014. AS was running like 19x daily SEA-ANC summer schedule pre-Covid.

According to BTS data, SEA also had one of the lowest average fares of all of the airports WN served at the time. If WN doesn’t do anything else well, they do adjust their schedules accordingly to maximize profit.

WN actually carried more passengers out of SEA in Summer 2021 than it did out of PDX, SFO, or DCA, whereas PDX, SFO, and DCA each had more passengers on WN in Summer 2019 than SEA did.

I would likely expect WN to increase DAL-SEA nonstop service back to daily nonstop service in Summer 2022 with SEA being one of the biggest WN stations without daily nonstop service to DAL on WN.

I also would probably expect WN to re-add SEA-BWI/HOU nonstop service with SEA being one of the biggest WN stations that WN doesn't currently serve nonstop from BWI or HOU along with WN originally planning on operating SEA-BWI/HOU nonstop service on a seasonal basis in Summer 2020.

INFINITI329 · Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:28 pm

AC4500 wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
ANC - 5299125

I could definitely see WN starting ANC, flying from DEN,PHX, & SEA. They will be in tap into the ANC cargo market.

Hate to break it to you, but not every airline needs to jump into the SEA-ANC market. The market is already way overserved. If they want to explore ANC outside of their core DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX focus areas, they'll fly PDX-ANC.

Today there are 18 flights between SEA-ANC by DL & AS. All expect 2 operated by a 73G or larger. I'm pretty sure there is room for WN or any other airline to come in to compete for a few of those frequencies.

DaCubbyBearBar · Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:24 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
INFINITI329 wrote:

I could definitely see WN starting ANC, flying from DEN,PHX, & SEA. They will be in tap into the ANC cargo market.

Hate to break it to you, but not every airline needs to jump into the SEA-ANC market. The market is already way overserved. If they want to explore ANC outside of their core DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX focus areas, they'll fly PDX-ANC.

Today there are 18 flights between SEA-ANC by DL & AS. All expect 2 operated by a 73G or larger. I'm pretty sure there is room for WN or any other airline to come in to compete for a few of those frequencies.

IMHO…. There is NO WAY that SWA tries to get in on the SEA-ANC market. SWA isn’t even going to try to muscle in on that market. DL and AS will eat them for breakfast. SWA is too late to the market on that route. ANC, if ever they go there, will only be served from SWA hubs. OAK, LAS, DEN, and PHX. If no red eye service, then probably no more than 8 flights a day….

Aliqiout · Sat Dec 04, 2021 7:27 pm

ANC-SEA has massive AS loyalty and AS hubs on both ends, not to mention DL's share. This has been one, if not the, most important AS route since 1951.

I have no doubt that WN will start ANC at some point, but they are not going to make much of dent in SEA-ANC O&D without massive losses.

AC4500 · Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:43 pm

If/when WN starts Alaska flights, I think it'll look something like this:

ANC:
- DEN: 1x daily (increase to 2x daily in summer)
- PDX: 1x daily (increase to 2x daily in summer)
- LAS: 1x daily (seasonal)
- OAK: 1x daily (seasonal)
- PHX: 1x daily (seasonal)

I think we'd be very lucky to see flights to FAI at all, but maybe it'll look like:

FAI:
- PDX: 1x weekly (Saturday) (increase to 1x daily in summer)
- DEN: 1x weekly (Saturday) (increase to 1x daily in summer)

With that being said, this is a very optimistic outlook, and it will look more bleak than this to start off. Also, Alaska is a much more seasonal market than Hawaii is, and the market also heavily relies on red-eye utilization (more so than Hawaii does).

MIflyer12 · Sat Dec 04, 2021 8:52 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
RITA BTS data show WN had fewer passengers at SEA in 2019 than it did in 2011 -- while total passenger counts at SEA grew 58% in that time. WN just gave up in SEA when DL started building its hub in 2014. AS was running like 19x daily SEA-ANC summer schedule pre-Covid.

According to BTS data, SEA also had one of the lowest average fares of all of the airports WN served at the time. If WN doesn’t do anything else well, they do adjust their schedules accordingly to maximize profit.

There's nothing wrong with that - run planes where they make the most money. WN is, however, acutely weak in SEA given the airport's status as one of the top 12 domestic O&D markets in the country. It isn't even strong to its primary cities:

Monday's schedule shows no WN non-stops SEA-DAL. AA has 5x to DFW - all A321s.

WN has 1x SEA-MDW on Monday. AS is the frequency leader to CHI with 5x.

WN has 3x SEA-PHX. AS has 6x and AA has 4x.

Zero n/s to LAX; AS has 9x and DL 7x.

4x to DEN (and even shows 2-stop flights on the airport pair, as if that could be competitive in the market!). UA is 5x.

Zero n/s to MCO while AS has 3x.

A July Monday shows AS with 22x n/s SEA-ANC between 0615 and 2300.

n562wn · Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:02 pm

Aliqiout wrote:
ANC-SEA has massive AS loyalty and AS hubs on both ends, not to mention DL's share. This has been one, if not the, most important AS route since 1951.

I have no doubt that WN will start ANC at some point, but they are not going to make much of dent in SEA-ANC O&D without massive losses.

Similar things were said about Hawaii but here we are.. If the network planners put their mind to it, I’m sure they’ll figure something out by challenging the monopoly Alaska has on intra Alaska routes. I agree WN’s biggest problem with going to Alaska is establishing a good staging point. How they get there is anyone’s guess as WN is not nearly as strong in the PNW as they should be.

Flflyer83 · Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Flflyer83 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
RITA BTS data show WN had fewer passengers at SEA in 2019 than it did in 2011 -- while total passenger counts at SEA grew 58% in that time. WN just gave up in SEA when DL started building its hub in 2014. AS was running like 19x daily SEA-ANC summer schedule pre-Covid.

According to BTS data, SEA also had one of the lowest average fares of all of the airports WN served at the time. If WN doesn’t do anything else well, they do adjust their schedules accordingly to maximize profit.

There's nothing wrong with that - run planes where they make the most money. WN is, however, acutely weak in SEA given the airport's status as one of the top 12 domestic O&D markets in the country. It isn't even strong to its primary cities:

Monday's schedule shows no WN non-stops SEA-DAL. AA has 5x to DFW - all A321s.

WN has 1x SEA-MDW on Monday. AS is the frequency leader to CHI with 5x.

WN has 3x SEA-PHX. AS has 6x and AA has 4x.

Zero n/s to LAX; AS has 9x and DL 7x.

4x to DEN (and even shows 2-stop flights on the airport pair, as if that could be competitive in the market!). UA is 5x.

Zero n/s to MCO while AS has 3x.

A July Monday shows AS with 22x n/s SEA-ANC between 0615 and 2300.

I’m not sure why you bothered with that reply. No one has challenged anything in your post beyond pointing out that DL and AS were in a battle and WN could make more money elsewhere. That’s all.

Would you like a comparison of the WN vs AS non-stop comparisons across CA or even HI? :lol:

jplatts · Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
WN is, however, acutely weak in SEA given the airport's status as one of the top 12 domestic O&D markets in the country.

WN actually had a larger presence at SEA in Summer 2021 than at most of its other spoke stations, and there were only 22 stations where WN carried more domestic passengers in August 2021 than it did at SEA.

The 22 stations where WN carried more domestic passengers in August 2021 than at SEA include DEN, MDW, LAS, BWI, PHX, DAL, HOU, BNA, MCO, STL, ATL, OAK, SAN, LAX, SMF, AUS, TPA, SJC, SNA, MCI, FLL, and BUR.

khaba · Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:29 pm

yeah I don't see WN trying ANC. It's served well already. LAX is the closest crew base, and not to mention they wouldn't launch from PDX or SEA as they don't have full catering either. They won't restart SEA catering after closing it already. I mean, they launched catering in FLL to serve Cuba and the various Caribbean destinations years back. I don't see it happening when Hawaii is a already a good freight/PAX moneymaker.

Given three new destinations in Colorado and a few other leisure destinations already, it doesn't seem likely at all.

AC4500 · Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:12 am

khaba wrote:
yeah I don't see WN trying ANC. It's served well already. LAX is the closest crew base, and not to mention they wouldn't launch from PDX or SEA as they don't have full catering either. They won't restart SEA catering after closing it already. I mean, they launched catering in FLL to serve Cuba and the various Caribbean destinations years back. I don't see it happening when Hawaii is a already a good freight/PAX moneymaker.

Given three new destinations in Colorado and a few other leisure destinations already, it doesn't seem likely at all.

Hawaii was also very well served before WN's entry, and now they're one of the most dominant airlines in the market, and I'm sure they're not done expanding in the Hawaii market yet. However, If/when WN enters the Alaska market, it certainly won't be as dramatic as their entry to Hawaii.

As for PDX/SEA, I don't know why "catering" would be an issue here, and do they really not have a crew base anywhere closer than LAX? What about OAK?

SEA-ANC is already way overserved, and the fares are already way too low for WN to make a dent anywhere in the market.

However, PDX-ANC strikes a balance between not being overserved, like SEA-ANC, and being a shorter overall distance in comparison to ANC-DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX. Route distance is crucial in an expensive fuel environment. That's not to say that they wouldn't start ANC-DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX, but when fuel is as expensive as it currently is, factors like these would probably be taken into account here.

Wneast · Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:16 am

AC4500 wrote:
khaba wrote:
yeah I don't see WN trying ANC. It's served well already. LAX is the closest crew base, and not to mention they wouldn't launch from PDX or SEA as they don't have full catering either. They won't restart SEA catering after closing it already. I mean, they launched catering in FLL to serve Cuba and the various Caribbean destinations years back. I don't see it happening when Hawaii is a already a good freight/PAX moneymaker.

Given three new destinations in Colorado and a few other leisure destinations already, it doesn't seem likely at all.

Hawaii was also very well served before WN's entry, and now they're one of the most dominant airlines in the market, and I'm sure they're not done expanding in the Hawaii market yet. However, If/when WN enters the Alaska market, it certainly won't be as dramatic as their entry to Hawaii.

As for PDX/SEA, I don't know why "catering" would be an issue here, and do they really not have a crew base anywhere closer than LAX? What about OAK?

SEA-ANC is already way overserved, and the fares are already way too low for WN to make a dent anywhere in the market.

However, PDX-ANC strikes a balance between not being overserved, like SEA-ANC, and being a shorter overall distance in comparison to ANC-DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX. Route distance is crucial in an expensive fuel environment. That's not to say that they wouldn't start ANC-DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX, but when fuel is as expensive as it currently is, factors like these would probably be taken into account here.

I’m with you and they do have crew base in OAK, I would say we hopefully see the further additions in the schedule extension but we will see but they aren’t done in Hawaii I would bet

khaba · Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:23 am

AC4500 wrote:
khaba wrote:
yeah I don't see WN trying ANC. It's served well already. LAX is the closest crew base, and not to mention they wouldn't launch from PDX or SEA as they don't have full catering either. They won't restart SEA catering after closing it already. I mean, they launched catering in FLL to serve Cuba and the various Caribbean destinations years back. I don't see it happening when Hawaii is a already a good freight/PAX moneymaker.

Given three new destinations in Colorado and a few other leisure destinations already, it doesn't seem likely at all.

Hawaii was also very well served before WN's entry, and now they're one of the most dominant airlines in the market, and I'm sure they're not done expanding in the Hawaii market yet. However, If/when WN enters the Alaska market, it certainly won't be as dramatic as their entry to Hawaii.

As for PDX/SEA, I don't know why "catering" would be an issue here, and do they really not have a crew base anywhere closer than LAX? What about OAK?

SEA-ANC is already way overserved, and the fares are already way too low for WN to make a dent anywhere in the market.

However, PDX-ANC strikes a balance between not being overserved, like SEA-ANC, and being a shorter overall distance in comparison to ANC-DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX. Route distance is crucial in an expensive fuel environment. That's not to say that they wouldn't start ANC-DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX, but when fuel is as expensive as it currently is, factors like these would probably be taken into account here.

yeah, you're correct. I forgot about OAK somehow.

what I meant about catering was just a loose observation that WN set up catering stations in a few hawaii stations, while serving from catering stations/hubs on the mainland. People gotta get their ginger ale on a 4 hour flight. I've been restocking galleys so long that I assume a potential ANC flight would be an OAK or SMF out and back. PDX feels like such a minor station is where I disagree that they would route from there. Maybe SMF-PDX-ANC thru flight.

ytib · Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:23 am

AC4500 wrote:
khaba wrote:
yeah I don't see WN trying ANC. It's served well already. LAX is the closest crew base, and not to mention they wouldn't launch from PDX or SEA as they don't have full catering either. They won't restart SEA catering after closing it already. I mean, they launched catering in FLL to serve Cuba and the various Caribbean destinations years back. I don't see it happening when Hawaii is a already a good freight/PAX moneymaker.

One element you forgot in your comparison between Alaska and Hawaii, one of those has year round demand while the other does not. Hawaii also was always requested by loyal Southwest passengers as their target is the population from the mainland.

jplatts · Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:51 am

AC4500 wrote:
As for PDX/SEA, I don't know why "catering" would be an issue here, and do they really not have a crew base anywhere closer than LAX? What about OAK?

WN does operate some nonstop routes within the contiguous U.S. that are longer than ANC-SEA, including the following:
BWI-ABQ/DEN/LAX/PHX/SAN
DAL-OAK/SJC
DEN-BWI/BOS/FLL/RSW/BDL/LGA/MIA/ORF/MCO/PHL/RIC/SRQ/TPA/IAD
MDW-BUR/LAS/LGB/LAX/OAK/ONT/SNA/SJC/SAN/PDX/SFO/SEA
HOU-OAK/SMF/SJC
LAS-ATL/BWI/BHM/ORD/MDW/CMH/IND/SDF/MKE/BNA/MSY/MCO/PIT/TPA
PHX-ATL/BWI/CMH/FLL/IND/MCO/SDF/PIT/TPA

WN would not need catering on nonstop flights to Alaska from the contiguous U.S. as WN operates some nonstop routes within the contiguous U.S. that are longer than ANC-SEA.

jplatts · Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:53 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
WN has 1x SEA-MDW on Monday. AS is the frequency leader to CHI with 5x.

I am surprised that WN is currently down to 1x daily on SEA-MDW, even though WN had more nonstop service to MDW from SEA prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are fewer passengers making connections from SEA to the Eastern U.S. through MDW with AS having added SEA-CVG/CMH/RSW/PIT nonstop service in addition to the cuts that WN has made on SEA-MDW and other nonstop routes out of MDW.

PDEW's to SEA were also still down from pre-pandemic levels from most markets in the contiguous U.S. through at least June 2021.

The PDEW of SEA-MDW was 118 passengers/day in Q2 2019, and enough demand would likely be there for at least a 2nd daily nonstop to MDW from SEA on WN if SEA-MDW O&D demand were at pre-pandemic levels.

Aliqiout · Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:13 am

n562wn wrote:
Aliqiout wrote:
ANC-SEA has massive AS loyalty and AS hubs on both ends, not to mention DL's share. This has been one, if not the, most important AS route since 1951.

I have no doubt that WN will start ANC at some point, but they are not going to make much of dent in SEA-ANC O&D without massive losses.

Similar things were said about Hawaii but here we are.. If the network planners put their mind to it, I’m sure they’ll figure something out by challenging the monopoly Alaska has on intra Alaska routes. I agree WN’s biggest problem with going to Alaska is establishing a good staging point. How they get there is anyone’s guess as WN is not nearly as strong in the PNW as they should be.

The best comparison to SEA-ANC would be interisland where WN has not had wild success. WN's success mainland to HI is because there was high demand from.many of their existing stations to Hiwaii. They don't have this kind of advantage in ANC or SEA.

I am sure they can find some success from somewhere to ANC, but SEA won't be that place. It would be like them trying ATL-MSP, but worse.

sprxUSA · Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:32 am

If they were to go into Alaska, I'd go with a bit of gusto and right at AS. DL whi cares? They deal with them all over the place, so a few more routes be no big deal IMO.
ANC-SEA x3, ANC-JNU x2, ANC-FAI x3, FAI-JNU x2, JNU-SEA x2. ANC-OAK x1, ANC-LAS x1. Adjust for winter, a PHX, add'l LAS less SEA. Be fun while it would last LOL.

AC4500 · Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:59 am

sprxUSA wrote:
If they were to go into Alaska, I'd go with a bit of gusto and right at AS. DL whi cares? They deal with them all over the place, so a few more routes be no big deal IMO.
ANC-SEA x3, ANC-JNU x2, ANC-FAI x3, FAI-JNU x2, JNU-SEA x2. ANC-OAK x1, ANC-LAS x1. Adjust for winter, a PHX, add'l LAS less SEA. Be fun while it would last LOL.

Except for the fact that ANC-SEA is AS's flagship route. Having the mindset of "we deal with our competitors all over the place so why not add more flights in ultra-competitive markets" is a great way to go out of business. With that logic, AS should add several daily DAL-HOU flights.

With AS and DL offering a combined 25+ daily flights, WN simply has no room to work, especially considering that the fares on ANC-SEA are already super low and the offered capacity is super high. The market is simply overserved and that's a fact.

The only feasible places where WN can add ANC will be from their core DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX hubs and maybe PDX for extra connectivity and O&D.

Flflyer83 · Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:28 pm

AC4500 wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
If they were to go into Alaska, I'd go with a bit of gusto and right at AS. DL whi cares? They deal with them all over the place, so a few more routes be no big deal IMO.
ANC-SEA x3, ANC-JNU x2, ANC-FAI x3, FAI-JNU x2, JNU-SEA x2. ANC-OAK x1, ANC-LAS x1. Adjust for winter, a PHX, add'l LAS less SEA. Be fun while it would last LOL.

Except for the fact that ANC-SEA is AS's flagship route. Having the mindset of "we deal with our competitors all over the place so why not add more flights in ultra-competitive markets" is a great way to go out of business. With that logic, AS should add several daily DAL-HOU flights.

With AS and DL offering a combined 25+ daily flights, WN simply has no room to work, especially considering that the fares on ANC-SEA are already super low and the offered capacity is super high. The market is simply overserved and that's a fact.

The only feasible places where WN can add ANC will be from their core DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX hubs and maybe PDX for extra connectivity and O&D.

Because no airline has ever entered a market just to lower fares even further and put the squeeze on… WNs 2 flights a day at those fares won’t hurt as bad as running 12+ flights at those fares… and when you’re a substantially smaller airlines, it will have a bigger effect. AS is approximately 1/4th the size of WN and in steep competition in far more % of its network. Look at HI now. :hyper:

AC4500 · Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:31 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
If they were to go into Alaska, I'd go with a bit of gusto and right at AS. DL whi cares? They deal with them all over the place, so a few more routes be no big deal IMO.
ANC-SEA x3, ANC-JNU x2, ANC-FAI x3, FAI-JNU x2, JNU-SEA x2. ANC-OAK x1, ANC-LAS x1. Adjust for winter, a PHX, add'l LAS less SEA. Be fun while it would last LOL.

Except for the fact that ANC-SEA is AS's flagship route. Having the mindset of "we deal with our competitors all over the place so why not add more flights in ultra-competitive markets" is a great way to go out of business. With that logic, AS should add several daily DAL-HOU flights.

With AS and DL offering a combined 25+ daily flights, WN simply has no room to work, especially considering that the fares on ANC-SEA are already super low and the offered capacity is super high. The market is simply overserved and that's a fact.

The only feasible places where WN can add ANC will be from their core DEN/LAS/OAK/PHX hubs and maybe PDX for extra connectivity and O&D.

Because no airline has ever entered a market just to lower fares even further and put the squeeze on… WNs 2 flights a day at those fares won’t hurt as bad as running 12+ flights at those fares… and when you’re a substantially smaller airlines, it will have a bigger effect. AS is approximately 1/4th the size of WN and in steep competition in far more % of its network. Look at HI now.

My point was that ANC-SEA fares are already so low that WN wouldn't be able to gain a sustainable market share, which leads to low load factors. If I'm living in Seattle, why would I choose WN's flights when I could choose from one of AS's 15+ daily flights. It'd be pointless for WN to enter the ANC-SEA market.

Wneast · Sun Dec 05, 2021 11:17 pm

Anybody think WN will add BUR and ONT to hawaii for spring on Wednesday or wait tell summer for more hawaii ?

cbchicago · Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:14 am

Why not more flights at MEM? They just opened a new Concourse.

Runway765 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:24 am

cbchicago wrote:
Why not more flights at MEM? They just opened a new Concourse.

I don’t think it has yet, and at any rate, where else could WN go at MEM?

AC4500 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 12:25 am

Runway765 wrote:
cbchicago wrote:
Why not more flights at MEM? They just opened a new Concourse.

I don’t think it has yet, and at any rate, where else could WN go at MEM?

LAS. G4 owns LAS-MEM at the moment. I guess F9 flies it too.

strangeplanes · Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:54 am

Southwest is going to have to go intercontinental at some point if they want to continue growing. What city will be their mid-continent intercon hub? MDW and LUV won’t support that. Denver, BNA, and STL could probably support that. I’d rule Denver out because of UAL’s extremely strong presence but otherwise think that's it. Thoughts?

Wneast · Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:56 am

strangeplanes wrote:
Southwest is going to have to go intercontinental at some point if they want to continue growing. What city will be their mid-continent intercon hub? MDW and LUV won’t support that. Denver, BNA, and STL could probably support that. I’d rule Denver out because of UAL’s extremely strong presence.

What DEN is becoming their biggest base with 16 more gates next year what are you saying ?

Flflyer83 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:10 am

strangeplanes wrote:
Southwest is going to have to go intercontinental at some point if they want to continue growing. What city will be their mid-continent intercon hub? MDW and LUV won’t support that. Denver, BNA, and STL could probably support that. I’d rule Denver out because of UAL’s extremely strong presence but otherwise think that's it. Thoughts?

What is your definition of “intercontinental”? It usually means from one continent to another…

dc10lover · Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:12 am

Wneast wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
Southwest is going to have to go intercontinental at some point if they want to continue growing. What city will be their mid-continent intercon hub? MDW and LUV won’t support that. Denver, BNA, and STL could probably support that. I’d rule Denver out because of UAL’s extremely strong presence.

What DEN is becoming their biggest base with 16 more gates next year what are you saying ?

I hope eventually Southwest will have Bellingham/Vancouver bc - Denver flights.

Wneast · Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:17 am

dc10lover wrote:
Wneast wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
Southwest is going to have to go intercontinental at some point if they want to continue growing. What city will be their mid-continent intercon hub? MDW and LUV won’t support that. Denver, BNA, and STL could probably support that. I’d rule Denver out because of UAL’s extremely strong presence.

What DEN is becoming their biggest base with 16 more gates next year what are you saying ?

I hope eventually Southwest will have Bellingham/Vancouver bc - Denver flights.

I would say that probably will happen maybe as soon as Wednesday sense they probably will try to connect Alamo’s every station to DEN

strangeplanes · Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:17 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
Southwest is going to have to go intercontinental at some point if they want to continue growing. What city will be their mid-continent intercon hub? MDW and LUV won’t support that. Denver, BNA, and STL could probably support that. I’d rule Denver out because of UAL’s extremely strong presence but otherwise think that's it. Thoughts?

What is your definition of “intercontinental”? It usually means from one continent to another…

At some point, Southwest will have to add long haul international if they want to keep growing. thinking to Asia, Europe, deep South America

INFINITI329 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:24 am

Wneast wrote:
Anybody think WN will add BUR and ONT to hawaii for spring on Wednesday or wait tell summer for more hawaii ?

I doubt Burbank's runways are long enough. Their longest runway is only 6,886 ft. All three variants (7M7,738 & 7M8) would need to be weight restricted to make it to Hawaii off that runway.

Wneast · Mon Dec 06, 2021 2:26 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
Wneast wrote:
Anybody think WN will add BUR and ONT to hawaii for spring on Wednesday or wait tell summer for more hawaii ?

I doubt Burbank's runways are long enough. Their longest runway is only 6,886 ft. All three variants (7M7,738 & 7M8) would need to be weight restricted to make it to Hawaii off that runway.

I have been told by a lot of people the 7M8 and 738 might not work but the 7M7 will for sure work

DaCubbyBearBar · Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:50 am

Wneast wrote:
Anybody think WN will add BUR and ONT to hawaii for spring on Wednesday or wait tell summer for more hawaii ?

I will bet my pension and stocks, that there will be no Hawai’i to BUR/ONT on Wednesday

DenverTed · Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:50 pm

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Wneast wrote:
Anybody think WN will add BUR and ONT to hawaii for spring on Wednesday or wait tell summer for more hawaii ?

I will bet my pension and stocks, that there will be no Hawai’i to BUR/ONT on Wednesday

Is the MAX 7 certified yet? I would imagine that routes would not be announced until the airplane was at least certified.

Wneast · Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:52 pm

DenverTed wrote:
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Wneast wrote:
Anybody think WN will add BUR and ONT to hawaii for spring on Wednesday or wait tell summer for more hawaii ?

I will bet my pension and stocks, that there will be no Hawai’i to BUR/ONT on Wednesday

Is the MAX 7 certified yet? I would imagine that routes would not be announced until the airplane was at least certified.

ONT can be added with a Max 8 but the seven hasn’t even been certified

dc10lover · Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:33 pm

DenverTed wrote:
DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
Wneast wrote:
Anybody think WN will add BUR and ONT to hawaii for spring on Wednesday or wait tell summer for more hawaii ?

I will bet my pension and stocks, that there will be no Hawai’i to BUR/ONT on Wednesday

Is the MAX 7 certified yet? I would imagine that routes would not be announced until the airplane was at least certified.

I think the 737max will mainly replace the 737-700's and not so much new routes.

Western727 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:17 pm

AC4500 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
cbchicago wrote:
Why not more flights at MEM? They just opened a new Concourse.

I don’t think it has yet, and at any rate, where else could WN go at MEM?

LAS. G4 owns LAS-MEM at the moment. I guess F9 flies it too.

New concourse? Don't they've have way more space than they'll need for a long time, thanks to the sad dehubbing of MEM? I recall plans to shutter some of C as a result of opening the new B...as an example.

ADent · Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:41 pm

dc10lover wrote:
I think the 737max will mainly replace the 737-700's and not so much new routes.

Yes, true.

But a few of those 737-7s will be used for new routes. Denver to Hawaii for example.

Jshank83 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:46 pm

strangeplanes wrote:
Flflyer83 wrote:
strangeplanes wrote:
Southwest is going to have to go intercontinental at some point if they want to continue growing. What city will be their mid-continent intercon hub? MDW and LUV won’t support that. Denver, BNA, and STL could probably support that. I’d rule Denver out because of UAL’s extremely strong presence but otherwise think that's it. Thoughts?

What is your definition of “intercontinental”? It usually means from one continent to another…

At some point, Southwest will have to add long haul international if they want to keep growing. thinking to Asia, Europe, deep South America

Or they could just get around to getting a codeshare partner at some point. I don't see them adding a plane type that gets them to Asia anytime soon.

Midwestindy · Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:50 pm

Interesting they are doing the schedule release on the same day as investor day

PITFlyer330 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Interesting they are doing the schedule release on the same day as investor day

don’t they usually do it on thursdays? weird its a Wednesday this time

flight152 · Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:32 pm

[threeid][/threeid]

ADent wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
I think the 737max will mainly replace the 737-700's and not so much new routes.

Yes, true.

But a few of those 737-7s will be used for new routes. Denver to Hawaii for example.

I’m highly skeptical the max 7 will be feasible doing DEN- Hawaii.

delta777er · Tue Dec 07, 2021 1:06 am

What are the chances we see red-eyes on this schedule release?

Wneast · Tue Dec 07, 2021 1:21 am

delta777er wrote:
What are the chances we see red-eyes on this schedule release?

It’s possible sense this schedule release comes out with there investor day where they said they would talk about future technology being unlocked

orlandocfi · Tue Dec 07, 2021 1:54 am

flight152 wrote:
[threeid][/threeid]
ADent wrote:
dc10lover wrote:
I think the 737max will mainly replace the 737-700's and not so much new routes.

Yes, true.

But a few of those 737-7s will be used for new routes. Denver to Hawaii for example.

I’m highly skeptical the max 7 will be feasible doing DEN- Hawaii.

Care to elaborate? When it arrives, the max7 will be the only type in the fleet that will reliably be able to depart Denver for Hawaii year round. I might agree that it won’t be a comfortable 7 hour flight for either the pax or crew, but it will have to suffice until the 788 arrives!

n562wn · Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:01 am

Wneast wrote:
delta777er wrote:
What are the chances we see red-eyes on this schedule release?

It’s possible sense this schedule release comes out with there investor day where they said they would talk about future technology being unlocked

God forbid, the ability to accept foreign currency would be nice in regard to so called future technology.

Wneast · Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:06 am

n562wn wrote:
Wneast wrote:
delta777er wrote:
What are the chances we see red-eyes on this schedule release?

It’s possible sense this schedule release comes out with there investor day where they said they would talk about future technology being unlocked

God forbid, the ability to accept foreign currency would be nice in regard to so called future technology.

I know it’s not like they have been talking about it for years or anything

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